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On the Necessity of Improving the Research Infrastructure in the Western Black Sea for the Purposes of Flood Risk Management

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On the Necessity of Improving the Research Infrastructure in the Western Black Sea for the Purposes of Flood Risk Management CMDR ANNUAL CONFERENCE INTERAGENCY INTERACTION IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT AND DISASTER RESPONSE 2016 31.05 ‐02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA ON THE NECESSITY OF IMPROVING THE RESEARCH INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE WESTERN BLACK SEA FOR THE PURPOSES OF FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT Lyubka Pashova1, Anna Kortcheva2, Vasko Galabov2 1 National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences 2 National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences 2 PRESENTATION OUTLINES • Introduction • EU Directive 2007/60/EC implementation in Bulgaria • Flood hazard along the Bulgarian Black Sea coast • Bulgarian methodology of flood hazard and risk mapping ‘Part –costal floods’ • Storm surge modeling ‐ data sets and models • Flood hazard maps for APSFRs in coastal areas for BS Basin Directorate – results, problems and challenges • Conclusive remarks and recommendations CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 3 NATURAL DISASTERS IN BULGARIA /FLOODS/ Natural disasters do not affect evenly the Bulgarian territory • Increased frequency of heavy rains /2000-2015/ Total dead and injured causing severe floods /1997, 2001, 2002, 167 affected 2005,2006 and 2014/; Wildfire 7 deaths •STORM SURGES along the BG BS coast 737 Earthquake 0 - 1976, 1977, 1979, 1981, 1996,1998, 59747 2006, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014 floods 54 • From natural disasters /2000-2015/: 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 60,651 people injured Total damage ('000 US$) 61 dead Forest fire 20054 Convective storm 545000 damages - over US$ 949K Storm 1000 861000 Riverine flood FLOODS /2014: 360; 177,604K BGN/ Cold wave Heat wave 50 Coastal floods: missing data in EM-DAT&NSI Severe winter conditions Ground movement 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 5 STORM SURGE ON 8‐9 FEBRUARY 2012 VARNA Died ‐ 1 person Material damages: Varna ‐ Port parking lot and the road to the marina are flooded; Burgas ‐ central bridge and the road to the salt works are flooded ; flooded buildings in the resorts Elenite, Sveti Vlas, Sunny Beach and the port in Tsarevo; port facilities and roads in Pomorie, Sozopol, Ahtopol are destructed; all restaurants on the beach in Primorsko were destroyed; Campings "Aheloi" and "Oasis" were destroyed… CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 5 Implementation of Directive 2007/60/EC in Bulgaria Three main stages: 1. Preliminary assessment of flood risk /2011/ 2. Mapping flood hazard maps and flood risk ‐ /2013/ 3. Preparation of plans for managing flood risk ‐ /2015/ (2 & 3 ‐ subjected to revision and updating every 6 years) Flood hazards/risk maps ‐ prepared according to NATIONAL METHODOLOGY /Order № РД‐370/16.04.2013/ developed by NIMH ‐ BAS Part 3: Methodological guidelines for assessment hazard and risk caused by flooding of the Black Sea coastal areas CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 6 Key factors for assessing the hazard and risk of coastal flooding ‐ ‘good practices’ DATA and ASSESSMENTS: •Mean sea level, sea level rise and climate change effect • Geological, geomorphological and oceanographic characteristics of coastal areas •Wind climate •Wave climate • Anthropogenic impact • Changes in the nature and dynamics of coastal processes •Spatial extent • Indirect effects •Intensity of impact in the coastal zone Overview of drivers for future flood risks (SAFECOAST, 2008) •Duration of the event •Extent to which the event is predictable, etc. CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 7 FACTORS in assessing the hazard and risk of flooding in the Black Sea coastal zone • RANGE FLOOD ‐ spatial characteristics of the area of the flooded area; • AVAILABLE POTENTIAL OF WATER ‐ depth of flooding; • TOPOGRAPHICAL AND GEOLOGICAL FEATURES • SPEED OF THE WATER MASS; • OTHER PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS ‐ may increase / reduce the impact of the depth of Coastal flooding in resort "Golden Sands, 10 March 2010 flooding. CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 8 Flood hazard along the BG Black Sea coast Hydro-meteorological hazards - strong winds, high waves and storm-surges) are DRIVERS to the coastal HAZARDS (flooding and coastal erosion)! • Flood‐prone coastal areas ‐ probability of occurrence of the maximum sea level once every 20 /5%/, 100 /1%/ and 1000 /0.1%/ years. • Future sea level has a regional character •Different scenarios for change, which are based on different models and alleged changes in the factors • Anthropogenic influence is recognized in the very wide range • Uncertainties in model simulations ‐ "climate sensitivity" CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 9 STORM SURGE & WAVES = SEA LEVEL RISE Coastal analysis ‐ includes 4 main components: • Still water level (storm surge) and Wave Set‐up /incl. wave generation on inland water bodies/ • Overland Wave Propagation • Wave Run‐up and Overtopping • Primary Frontal Dune CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 10 DATA AND MODELS FOR FLOOD MAPS PRODUCTION DATA SETS of local key parameters – accurate, long‐term time series, in real‐time, homogeneous, standardized, good spatial coverage…‐ from in‐situ, aerial and satellite observations •DEM of land and seabed with high spatial resolution •Hydro‐meteorological data with high spatial and temporal resolution ‐ sea level; wave and wind climate; geological, river discharge, geomorphological and oceanographic features of coastal areas; run‐off,… •Erosion and abrasion, sea currents •Infrastructure and facilities built in the coastal zone MODELING: •Numerical simulation of atmospheric, wave and storm surge models with higher resolution •Hydrological and hydraulic models •Specific examples: along the shoreline, in estuaries and/or in combination with river flooding, in marine‐related lakes •Layout issues and GIS approaches •Organization and documentation for end‐user usage CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 11 Key components for preparing hazard flood maps 1. 3D Digital Elevation Model for onshore and seabed with high spatial resolution; 2. Availability of data from hydro‐metereorological, geophysical and oceanographic parameters. These data can be obtained in two ways: a) long‐term observations / measurements of various hydro‐metereorological, geophysical and oceanographic parameters ‐ achieved higher accuracy and detail in determining the hazard of sea flooding; b) as a result of numerical simulation of atmospheric and wave models with high resolution. 3. Statistical analysis of data on sea level and sea storms with significant wave heights to determine their repeatability; 4. Reasoned methodological approaches and tools for determining the maximum sea levels of flooding for the respective probability 5%, 1% and 0.1% /or climate scenarious /; 5. Hydrological and hydrodynamic models to determine the potential flood‐prone coastal areas. CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 12 General scheme for assessing the coastal flood risk /Methodological guidance, 2013/ = 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 13 Available research and observational infrastructure • NIMH ‐ BAS • Hydrographic Service ‐ Naval forces • AGCC –MRDPW and NIGGG ‐ BAS • IO‐BAS • MA ‐ MTITC • State Enterprise "Port Infrastructure“‐ MTITC • Others CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 14 NIMH‐BAS: MONITORING Synoptic Coastal Stations network • stations are equipped with standard meteorological instruments, according to the regulations of the World Meteorological Organization. • standard meteorological observations • only visual wave observations are available along the Bulgarian Black Sea coast. SCS WMO index Latitude N Longitude EH (m) Observational period (years) Shabla 15561 43° 32’ 28° 37’ 5.7 From 1973 Kaliakra 15562 43° 22’ 28° 28’ 59.85 From 1953 Varna 15552 43° 12’ 27° 57’ 39.0 From 1958 Emine 15650 42° 42’ 27° 54’ 55.3 From 1963 Burgas 15655 42° 29’ 27° 29’ 20.8 From 1950 Ahtopol 15661 42° 06’ 27° 56’ 18.08 From 1981 CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 15 NIMH‐BAS: ATMOSPHERIC AND MARINE NUMERICAL FORECAST/HINDCAST • Forecast – Early Warning System for the hydro‐meteorological hazards (strong winds, high waves, storm surges) • Hindcast – reconstruction of the past storm events CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 16 NIMH‐BAS: NUMERICAL MODELING • Wave models: WAVEWATCH III, SWAN • STORM‐SURGE model Numerical simulation of historical storm situations is a key tool in Example of BS_022012 (Bulgarian case): examining potential coastal hazards. Maximum storm‐surge model output In the absence of measured data, site specific long term wind, storm surge and waves hindcast satisfy the need for data and provide adequate input for the computation of corresponding long term time histories from which extreme values can
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