CMDR ANNUAL CONFERENCE INTERAGENCY INTERACTION IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT AND DISASTER RESPONSE 2016 31.05 ‐02.06.2016, ,

ON THE NECESSITY OF IMPROVING THE RESEARCH INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE WESTERN FOR THE PURPOSES OF FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT

Lyubka Pashova1, Anna Kortcheva2, Vasko Galabov2 1 National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences 2 National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences 2 PRESENTATION OUTLINES

• Introduction • EU Directive 2007/60/EC implementation in Bulgaria • Flood hazard along the Bulgarian Black Sea coast • Bulgarian methodology of flood hazard and risk mapping ‘Part –costal floods’ • Storm surge modeling ‐ data sets and models • Flood hazard maps for APSFRs in coastal areas for BS Basin Directorate – results, problems and challenges • Conclusive remarks and recommendations

CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 3 NATURAL DISASTERS IN BULGARIA /FLOODS/ Natural disasters do not affect evenly the Bulgarian territory • Increased frequency of heavy rains /2000-2015/ Total dead and injured causing severe floods /1997, 2001, 2002, 167 affected 2005,2006 and 2014/; Wildfire 7 deaths

•STORM SURGES along the BG BS coast 737 Earthquake 0 - 1976, 1977, 1979, 1981, 1996,1998, 59747

2006, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014 floods 54 • From natural disasters /2000-2015/: 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 60,651 people injured Total damage ('000 US$) 61 dead Forest fire 20054 Convective storm 545000

damages - over US$ 949K Storm 1000 861000 Riverine flood

FLOODS /2014: 360; 177,604K BGN/ Cold wave

Heat wave 50

Coastal floods: missing data in EM-DAT&NSI Severe winter conditions

Ground movement

0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000

CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 5 STORM SURGE ON 8‐9 FEBRUARY 2012

VARNA

Died ‐ 1 person Material damages: Varna ‐ Port parking lot and the road to the marina are flooded; ‐ central bridge and the road to the salt works are flooded ; flooded buildings in the resorts Elenite, , and the port in ; port facilities and roads in , , are destructed; all restaurants on the beach in were destroyed; Campings "Aheloi" and "Oasis" were destroyed…

CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 5 Implementation of Directive 2007/60/EC in Bulgaria

Three main stages: 1. Preliminary assessment of flood risk /2011/ 2. Mapping flood hazard maps and flood risk ‐ /2013/ 3. Preparation of plans for managing flood risk ‐ /2015/ (2 & 3 ‐ subjected to revision and updating every 6 years)

Flood hazards/risk maps ‐ prepared according to NATIONAL METHODOLOGY /Order № РД‐370/16.04.2013/ developed by NIMH ‐ BAS Part 3: Methodological guidelines for assessment hazard and risk caused by flooding of the Black Sea coastal areas

CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 6 Key factors for assessing the hazard and risk of coastal flooding ‐ ‘good practices’ DATA and ASSESSMENTS: •Mean sea level, sea level rise and climate change effect • Geological, geomorphological and oceanographic characteristics of coastal areas •Wind climate •Wave climate • Anthropogenic impact • Changes in the nature and dynamics of coastal processes •Spatial extent • Indirect effects •Intensity of impact in the coastal zone Overview of drivers for future flood risks (SAFECOAST, 2008) •Duration of the event •Extent to which the event is predictable, etc.

CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 7 FACTORS in assessing the hazard and risk of flooding in the Black Sea coastal zone

• RANGE FLOOD ‐ spatial characteristics of the area of the flooded area; • AVAILABLE POTENTIAL OF WATER ‐ depth of flooding; • TOPOGRAPHICAL AND GEOLOGICAL FEATURES • SPEED OF THE WATER MASS; • OTHER PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS ‐ may increase / reduce the impact of the depth of Coastal flooding in resort ", 10 March 2010 flooding.

CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 8 Flood hazard along the BG Black Sea coast

Hydro-meteorological hazards - strong winds, high waves and storm-surges) are DRIVERS to the coastal HAZARDS (flooding and coastal erosion)!

• Flood‐prone coastal areas ‐ probability of occurrence of the maximum sea level once every 20 /5%/, 100 /1%/ and 1000 /0.1%/ years. • Future sea level has a regional character •Different scenarios for change, which are based on different models and alleged changes in the factors • Anthropogenic influence is recognized in the very wide range • Uncertainties in model simulations ‐ "climate sensitivity"

CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 9 STORM SURGE & WAVES = SEA LEVEL RISE Coastal analysis ‐ includes 4 main components: • Still water level (storm surge) and Wave Set‐up /incl. wave generation on inland water bodies/ • Overland Wave Propagation • Wave Run‐up and Overtopping • Primary Frontal Dune

CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 10 DATA AND MODELS FOR FLOOD MAPS PRODUCTION DATA SETS of local key parameters – accurate, long‐term time series, in real‐time, homogeneous, standardized, good spatial coverage…‐ from in‐situ, aerial and satellite observations •DEM of land and seabed with high spatial resolution •Hydro‐meteorological data with high spatial and temporal resolution ‐ sea level; wave and wind climate; geological, river discharge, geomorphological and oceanographic features of coastal areas; run‐off,… •Erosion and abrasion, sea currents •Infrastructure and facilities built in the coastal zone MODELING: •Numerical simulation of atmospheric, wave and storm surge models with higher resolution •Hydrological and hydraulic models •Specific examples: along the shoreline, in estuaries and/or in combination with river flooding, in marine‐related lakes •Layout issues and GIS approaches •Organization and documentation for end‐user usage

CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 11 Key components for preparing hazard flood maps 1. 3D Digital Elevation Model for onshore and seabed with high spatial resolution; 2. Availability of data from hydro‐metereorological, geophysical and oceanographic parameters. These data can be obtained in two ways: a) long‐term observations / measurements of various hydro‐metereorological, geophysical and oceanographic parameters ‐ achieved higher accuracy and detail in determining the hazard of sea flooding; b) as a result of numerical simulation of atmospheric and wave models with high resolution. 3. Statistical analysis of data on sea level and sea storms with significant wave heights to determine their repeatability; 4. Reasoned methodological approaches and tools for determining the maximum sea levels of flooding for the respective probability 5%, 1% and 0.1% /or climate scenarious /; 5. Hydrological and hydrodynamic models to determine the potential flood‐prone coastal areas.

CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 12 General scheme for assessing the coastal flood risk /Methodological guidance, 2013/

 = 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7

CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 13 Available research and observational infrastructure

• NIMH ‐ BAS • Hydrographic Service ‐ Naval forces • AGCC –MRDPW and NIGGG ‐ BAS • IO‐BAS • MA ‐ MTITC • State Enterprise "Port Infrastructure“‐ MTITC • Others

CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 14 NIMH‐BAS: MONITORING Synoptic Coastal Stations network • stations are equipped with standard meteorological instruments, according to the regulations of the World Meteorological Organization. • standard meteorological observations • only visual wave observations are available along the Bulgarian Black Sea coast.

SCS WMO index Latitude N Longitude EH (m) Observational period (years) 15561 43° 32’ 28° 37’ 5.7 From 1973 15562 43° 22’ 28° 28’ 59.85 From 1953 Varna 15552 43° 12’ 27° 57’ 39.0 From 1958 Emine 15650 42° 42’ 27° 54’ 55.3 From 1963 Burgas 15655 42° 29’ 27° 29’ 20.8 From 1950 Ahtopol 15661 42° 06’ 27° 56’ 18.08 From 1981

CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 15 NIMH‐BAS: ATMOSPHERIC AND MARINE NUMERICAL FORECAST/HINDCAST

• Forecast – Early Warning System for the hydro‐meteorological hazards (strong winds, high waves, storm surges) • Hindcast – reconstruction of the past storm events

CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 16 NIMH‐BAS: NUMERICAL MODELING • Wave models: WAVEWATCH III, SWAN • STORM‐SURGE model Numerical simulation of historical storm situations is a key tool in Example of BS_022012 (Bulgarian case): examining potential coastal hazards. Maximum storm‐surge model output In the absence of measured data, site specific long term wind, storm surge and waves hindcast satisfy the need for data and provide adequate input for the computation of corresponding long term time histories from which extreme values can be computed and hazard maps to be reconstructed.

CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 17 AGCC&NIGGG and IO: MONITORING

Tide gauge in Varna ‐ old “A. Ott” and new radar

CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 18 IO‐BAS: MONITORING • Galata platform weather and sea‐state observing system • Kamchia ‐ research base • POMOS, etc.

Observation stations in Shkorpilovtsi

CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 19 Sea level rise and coastal flooding Implementation of the EU FD (NIMH – Methodology)

KEY FACTORS INTO ACCOUNT: •trend of sea level rise •changes in the nature and dynamics of coastal processes •anthropogenic load •space in which the threat may influence •the ability of extreme phenomenon cause indirect effects • intensity of impact in the coastal zone •duration of the event • the extent to which the event was predictable and more.

Map of the inundation depth (projected 1000‐year (0.1%) flooding area) near the town of Kiten (Bulgarian coastal zone of the Black Sea; According to the Methodological guidance, 2013)

CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 20 Sea level rise and coastal flooding Implementation of the EU FD (NIMH – Methodology)

Map of flood hazard with a high probability (projected 20‐year flooding area 5%) near the town of Kiten (Bulgarian coastal zone of the Black Sea; According to the Methodological guidance, 2013)

CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 21 General scheme/2/ for assessing the coastal flood risk

r, etc.

CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 22 ASFR in Black Sea Basin Directorate

BG Black Sea coast line ‐ length of 378 km

Total number ASPRF ‐ 34 Areas of Potential Significant Flood Risk (APSFR, Article 5): 11 COASTAL areas (5%)

http://www.bsbd.org/bg/page_purn_bsbd.html

CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 23 Example of flood hazard map/1/ ‐ Varna region OPTIMISTIC SCENARIOUS M04_24_HazardmapDepth_BS_04_1000_02_SC1.PDF

CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 24 Example of flood hazard map/2/ ‐ Varna region PESIMISTIC SCENARIOUS M04_24_HazardmapDepth_BS_04_1000_02_SC1.PDF

CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 25 Data for floods in WBS region –BG part

EU WFD ‐ integrated river basin management

CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 26 Improving coastal flood hazard and risk mapping

• Scientific and technological issues Refinement of the numerical advanced hydrodynamic and wave models Evaluation of SLR and determination of uncertainties regarding magnitude, location, and temporal occurrence of the storm events Effective method of geo‐visualization and enriches 3D models using IT  Establishing of National Spatial Data Infrastructures ‐ EU INSPIRE Directive Developing Web‐based emergency management & early warning systems Web‐based geospatial decision support tool and applications ‐ Google Maps, OpenStreetMap, etc.

• Social‐economical issues Coastal flood hazard and risk maps according to end‐users requirements Efficiently spreading of flood hazard and flood risk information to improve greatly awareness of coastal flood risks Consultation and collaboration with all “Interested party”

CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 27 Building national resilience to extreme coastal events

• Establishing co‐located meteorological, hydrological, geodetic and oceanographic stations for long‐term monitoring in real‐time • Optimization and modernization of observational infrastructure to strength the capacity to provide early warnings of extreme events • Improving research and administrative capacity. • Shift the focus towards prevention, preparedness and mitigation measures to the storm surge risk. • Effective preparedness for DRR in the Bulgarian Black Sea coastal region

CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 28 CONCLUSIONS

•The concept of coastal flood risk management has shifted from defense against floods to a more integrated approach.

•Developing a comprehensive database of past and recent flood events and their impacts in the Bulgarian Black Sea coastal region.

• Improvements of the monitoring and exchange of information among all stakeholders on national and international level.

• Climate change to be considered when developing national strategies, programs, plans and other documents for the development of coastal areas

• Accurate assessment of a variety of environmental parameters /incl. climate change/ and human activities in coastal areas

•The results of interdisciplinary research ‐ the basis for the formation of policies for sustainable development of the Bulgarian Black Sea region

CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 29 RECOMMENDATIONS

Updating and standardization of all heterogeneous data bases

Estimates of parameters depend on weather patterns, recent geodynamic and climate processes, and anthropogenic influence

Development of new methods and technologies to improve the risk management in coastal zones

Effective communication and cooperation between all stakeholders on local, national and international level

Climate change to be considered when developing national strategies, programs, plans and other documents for the sustainable development of coastal areas

Implementation of EU and national regulations and agreement with the active participation of the public

CMDR CEO ANNUAL CONFERENCE IICMDR L. Pashova, A. Kortcheva, V Galabov 31.05 -02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA 30 CMDR ANNUAL CONFERENCE INTERAGENCY INTERACTION IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT AND DISASTER RESPONSE 2016 31.05 ‐02.06.2016, Sofia, BULGARIA

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

CONTACTS:

Assoc. Prof. Eng. Lyubka Pashova, PhD Assoc. Prof Anna Kortcheva, PhD Head of Marine Forecast Division National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy The National Institute of Meteorology and and Geography Hydrology Bulgarian Academy of Sciences – NIGGG‐BAS Bulgarian Academy of Sciences –NIMH‐BAS Tel: +359 (0)2 979 3349 Tel: +359 (0)2 462 4606 [email protected] [email protected] www.niggg.bas.bg www.meteo.bg