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Issue 24 Global Taiwan Brief Vol 5 Global Taiwan Brief Vol. 5, Issue 24 Global Taiwan Brief Vol 5. Issue1 24 Fortnightly Review Russell Hsiao US-Taiwan Plan to Counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative I-wei Jennifer Chang A Taiwanese Perspective on the Need for a US-Taiwan Free Trade Agreement Kai-Chih Chang Taiwan-Vietnam Economic Relations in the Age of Disruption Ines I-Yin Chung Resumption of Cross-Strait Dialogue is Desirable, Realistic and Practical Aims are Necessary J. Michael Cole Fortnightly Review The Global Taiwan Brief is a By: Russell Hsiao bi-weekly publication released every other Wednesday and pro- Russell Hsiao is the executive director of the Global Taiwan Institute (GTI) and editor-in-chief of the vides insight into the latest news Global Taiwan Brief. on Taiwan. Beijing’s Sabre-Rattling Leading to Calls for Enhanced US-Japan Cooperation to Defend Editor-in-Chief Taiwan Russell Hsiao Staff Editor China’s increasingly aggressive behaviors and coercive actions—including ramped up Katherine Schultz air and naval maneuvers around Taiwan—are leading to growing calls among experts in Copy Editor Washington and Tokyo for expanded coordination among the two treaty allies and co- Marshall Reid operation with Taipei to counteract the growing threat. Most notably, in a recent report The views and opinions expressed published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), “The US-Japan in these articles are those of the Alliance in 2020,” co-chaired by Ambassador Richard Armitage and Dr. Joseph Nye—both authors and do not necessarily re- senior Japan hands who served in senior positions in the US government—the study par- flect the official policy or position ticipants, which included other seasoned Asia hands—observed: of the Global Taiwan Institute. “China’s so-called “grey zone” coercion has illuminated the importance that the To view web sources cited in the United States and Japan place on the strategic integrity of the first island chain, published papers (underlined which stretches from Japan through Taiwan and the Philippines to Malaysia. Japan in printed text), visit https:// does not have a legal or diplomatic obligation to support Taiwan’s security as the globaltaiwan.org/2020/12/vol-5- United States does through the Taiwan Relations Act, but there should be no doubt issue-24/ that Tokyo shares Washington’s concern over growing Chinese military and political Global Taiwan Institute pressure on Taiwan. This growing Chinese pressure calls for increased coordination 1836 Jefferson Place NW, between the United States and Japan on their respective political and economic en- Washington DC 20036 gagement with Taiwan.” [email protected] To subscribe, visit This unambiguous recognition of the shared concerns between Washington and Tokyo http://globaltaiwan.org/sub- regarding China’s growing pressure campaign towards Taiwan follows a similar set of scribe/. forward-leaning recommendations from another group of senior retired American and © 2020 · Global Taiwan Institute Global Taiwan Brief Vol. 5, Issue 24 2 international military and civilian officials. This group, in his study The Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan’s which includes a retired admiral and former director Defense and American Strategy in Asia the PLA hand- of national intelligence, called for stepped up military book Japanese Air Self Defense Force, which explicitly coordination among US allies with Taipei in order to states the military advantages for China and costs to better prepare for and respond to the possibility of Japan if Taiwan were to unify with China: a military crisis in the region. In a May 2020 report “As soon as Taiwan is reunified with Mainland published by the US-based Sasakawa Peace Founda- China, Japan’s maritime lines of communication tion—which organized a tabletop exercise involving will fall completely within the striking ranges of hypothetical scenarios in the South China Sea—the China’s fighters and bombers. […] Our analysis participants specifically recommended that the Unit- shows that, by using blockades, if we can re- ed States: duce Japan’s raw imports by 15-20%, it will be “Expand Japan’s and South Korea’s mechanisms a heavy blow to Japan’s economy. After imports to consult and coordinate with Taiwan so they re- have been reduced by 30%, Japan’s economic ac- semble the robust connection between the Unit- tivity and war-making potential will be basically ed States and Taiwan.” destroyed. After imports have been reduced by 50%, even if they use rationing to limit consump- And suggested that: tion, Japan’s national economy and war-making “Planning associated with US military options in potential will collapse entirely […] blockades can support of the TRA should recognize the require- cause sea shipments to decrease and can even ment for a rapid expansion of consultative and create a famine within the Japanese islands. [1]” cooperative mechanisms with Taipei.” The implications of Taiwan’s subjugation by China While such voices in Washington have existed before, for Japan are even more bluntly called out by Tanner they have become louder in recent years, particularly Greer at Scholar Stage: on the need to better integrate Taiwan into US allied “Taiwan is the keystone of China’s naval contain- responses to regional contingencies. However, the ment. Lose Taiwan, and Japan loses the ability to challenges to deepening trilateral cooperation have keep the PLA Navy hemmed up against their own traditionally been on the Japanese side due to Tokyo’s coast line. Lose Taiwan, and Japan loses control of concerns about China’s reaction. Yet, even in Tokyo, its most important supply lanes. Lose Taiwan, and there are signs that such conservative views are start- Japan loses the extended island chain defense sys- ing to change in the face of China’s increasing belliger- tem that protects its home waters.” ence. Nobukatsu Kanehara, who served in a variety of high-level positions within the Japanese government, In addition to Armitage and Nye, other prominent including as Assistant Chief Cabinet Secretary to voices in Washington are similarly calling for in- former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe from 2012 to 2019, creased security consultations between Washington, recently stated at a Project 2049 Institute webinar: Tokyo, and Taipei. For instance, the former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Affairs Randall “[…] whether we are ambiguous or not, China Schriver wrote a recent memorandum published by doesn’t care. They are preparing for war, the the Project 2049 Institute in support of such coop- invasion of Taiwan […] under the screen of am- eration. Specifically, the former top defense official biguity. We have to have some communication for the Indo-Pacific during the Trump administration among Washington-Taipei and Tokyo-Taipei […]. recommended: We have to be clear that we do not accept the status quo change in Taiwan.” “The United States and its regional partners should work with Taipei in innovative ways to What explains Tokyo’s apparent reversal in concerns expand Taiwan’s international space in meaning- about China’s intentions vis-à-vis Taiwan? Ian Easton, ful ways so that Taiwan can prove its value as a a senior director at the Project 2049 Institute, cited good regional and global citizen.” Global Taiwan Brief Vol. 5, Issue 24 3 [1] Ian Easton, The China Invasion Threat: Taiwan’s More specifically, he suggested: Defense and American Strategy in East Asia (Washing- “The US should undertake bilateral military plan- ton DC: Project 2049 Institute, 2017), 27-28. ning with regional allies (such as Japan, Austra- *** lia, and the Republic of Korea) and associated training for a Taiwan Strait contingency.” Record Number of Hong Kongers Obtain Residence Permits in Taiwan in 2020 as Beijing Clamps Down on Despite these growing calls from experts for increased Dissent cooperation between the United States, Japan, and Taiwan, officials in Washington and Tokyo have -re As Beijing clamps down even harder on political mained relatively quiet about the extent of security dissent in Hong Kong—demonstrated by the recent cooperation over Taiwan. In response to a question chilling charges and convictions of prominent pro-de- about security cooperation between Taipei and Tokyo mocracy activists under the draconian Hong Kong at a webinar hosted by GTI earlier this year, Deputy National Security Law (香港國家安全法)—Taiwan Assistant Secretary of Defense for East Asia Heino revealed that it has issued increasing numbers of Klinck stated: residence permits to people from Hong Kong. Accord- ing to Chiu Chui-cheng (邱垂正), the deputy minister “We certainly encourage any of our allies to en- of Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC, 大陸委 hance their security dialogue with Taiwan. We 員會)—the cabinet level agency in charge of imple- believe that giving Taiwan as much international menting cross-Strait policy—from January to October space as possible is in the interest of like-mind- of this year, Taiwan has already issued 7,474 resident ed democracies, in the region and globally, quite permits (居留許可) to Hong Kong residents (for work, frankly. So, if Tokyo and Taipei are able to en- study, etc.) and 1,272 Hong Kong residents obtained hance the types of relationships that already cur- permanent residency permits (定居許可). The 2020 rently exist, Washington is certainly in favor of count already exceeds the 5,858 residency permits that.” that Taiwan issued in 2019 and the 4,148 it issued in While official documents released by the two govern- 2018. ments, such as the US-Japan Defense Guidelines,have Specifically, the numbers from July to October of this pointed towards greater alignment on the role that year were reportedly 4,313 and 550, for resident per- Japan would play in a potential Taiwan contingency— mits and permanent residency permits, respectively. as well as emphasizing Japanese interests in counter- Among the former group, 1,974 Hong Kong residents acting Chinese coercion of Taiwan—planning for such obtained residence permits in Taiwan in October contingencies appears limited.
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