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Reliance Industries 24 June 2021 Update | Sector: Oil & Gas Reliance Industries BSE SENSEX S&P CNX 52,699 15,790 CMP: INR2,153 TP: INR2,430 (+13%) Buy Motilal Oswal values your support AGM Takeaways: Towards a greener Reliance in the Asiamoney Brokers Poll 2021 for India Research, Sales, Unveils vision and forays in green energy Corporate Access and Trading Reliance Industries (RIL), in its AGM held on 24th June’21, announced a change in gears team. We request your ballot. with the introduction of its New Green Energy business, with large-scale capex planned for the same. It also continues to focus on the next-gen opportunities in Jio Digital and Reliance Retail. Here are the key highlights: Big foray in new green energy Constantly on the lookout for large-scale and high-growth business opportunities, RIL today announced its next big value creation engine with the launch of its New Green Energy business. With the peak of the investment cycle behind in RJio and Reliance Retail, it now plans to invest INR750b towards this ambition over the next three years. Our FY22/FY23 Stock Info capex estimate of INR850b/INR500b does not capture this development. RIL Bloomberg RIL IN Equity Shares (m) 6,339 plans to create a 5,000 acre Green Energy Giga complex in Jamnagar, and M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 14106.9 / 190.2 build four Giga factories to manufacture a) solar photovoltaic cells, b) 52-Week Range (INR) 2369 / 1696 energy storage batteries, c) electrolyzers for the production of green 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 4/-4/-26 hydrogen, and d) fuel cells. It plans to establish a 100GW solar energy 12M Avg Val (INR M) 30632 capacity by 2030. RIL plans to repurpose its existing business without any Free float (%) 50.9 asset write-downs and aims to be a zero-emission company by 2035 – providing a multi-decadal growth path through this growth engine. Financials Snapshot (INR b) INR Billion FY21 FY22E FY23E Growth hinges on JioPhone Next Sales 4,669 6,078 6,730 RIL’s Digital business (RJio) has seen revenue growth deceleration in the EBITDA 807 1,116 1,343 recent past, with slower subscriber additions and a rising base effect – 29% NP 437 602 757 EPS (Rs) 67.7 93.4 117.5 revenue growth was seen in FY21 v/s 102%/34% in FY19/20 and the EPS Growth (%) 1.9 37.9 25.8 expectation of 9% revenue growth in FY22E. To accelerate growth, it plans BV/Share (Rs) 1,086 1,171 1,278 to target 300m 2G feature subscribers who are presently unable to use RoE (%) 7.6 8.3 9.6 RJio’s 4G service due to lacking device capabilities (only compatible with the RoCE (%) 8.2 8.1 9.2 2G network). Thus, RJio plans to launch JioPhone Next, an ultra-affordable Valuations smartphone, in partnership with Google on 10th Sep’21. However, it is yet to P/E (x) 31.7 23.0 18.3 provide the price details for the product. The success of the product P/BV (x) 2.0 1.8 1.7 depends on a) its long-lasting and high data consumption EV/EBITDA (x) 19.7 14.3 11.5 capability/durability and b) the pricing. It has historically proved challenging EV/Sales (x) 3.4 2.6 2.3 to upgrade customers from the low-income bracket (the product’s target market) to high data consumption packs. Therefore, RIL may offer long- term plans to subsidize the device cost and monthly spend, extending the return on investment. While the current JioPhone has had a limited impact on Bharti, including the recent relaunch in Mar’21, the success of the product could pose a risk to Bharti/VIL’s 40–50% non-data subscriber base that is yet to upgrade to 4G. RIL is also actively working on the 5G technology and ecosystem development with the aim to be the first to launch full-fledged 5G services in the country. Swarnendu Bhushan- Research Analyst ([email protected]) Aliasgar Shakir - Research Analyst ([email protected]) Sarfraz Bhimani - Research Analyst ([email protected]) Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report. Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital. Reliance Industries Shareholding pattern (%) Reliance Retail’s digital initiatives As On Mar-21 Dec-20 Mar-20 RIL has leveraged the digital opportunities in the market by transforming into an Promoter 49.1 49.1 48.9 omni-channel retailer, with service offerings in 1,300 cities. Ajio.com contributes DII 12.5 12.7 13.6 25% to the Apparel business. The Grocery business already has >300k FII 27.8 27.3 25.9 merchant/shopkeeper partners across 150 cities. RIL now aims to transform the Others 10.6 10.9 11.6 traditional grocery channel through a target of 10m merchant partner additions FII Includes depository receipts over the next three years. It expects to grow the Retail business >3x over the Stock performance (one-year) next 3–5 years by (a) expanding its store footprints multi-fold, (b) widening the sourcing ecosystem, (c) aggressively ramping up the supply chain infrastructure, (d) investing in product development capabilities, and (e) acquiring businesses to broaden its offerings. Key highlights from the AGM a) H.E. Yasir Al-Rumayyan (Chairman of Saudi Aramco and Governor of PIF) joined the board of RIL, a precursor to Aramco’s formalization of its investment in the O2C business. b) It would invest INR750b in new green energy (solar- and hydrogen-based energy) over the next three years. c) It aims to launch JioPhone Next by 10th Sep’21 and aggressively ramp up Jio Fiber as well as the 5G technology and ecosystem development. d) It is planning investments in new commerce, and targets 10m merchant/kirana partner additions and growth of >3x over the next 3–5 years. Valuation Using SOTP, we value the O2C business at FY23E EV/EBITDA of 7.5x, arriving at a valuation of INR764/share for the standalone business, and add INR68 for the E&P assets. We ascribe an equity valuation of a) INR847/share to RJio on FY23E 20x EV/EBITDA and b) INR755/share to Reliance Retail on FY23E 35x EV/EBITDA, factoring in the recent stake sale. We reiterate Buy, with TP of INR2,430/share. The higher multiple for the Digital business captures the revenue opportunity, potential tariff hikes, and opportunity in the Feature Phone market. The higher multiple for the Retail biz captures the acceleration in store openings, digital commerce, and the new JioMart platform. 24 June 2021 2 Reliance Industries RIL AGM takeaways 1. Energy business: a. The strategic alliance with Saudi Aramco is expected to be formalized during the financial year. b. H.E. Yasir Al-Rumayyan (Chairman of Saudi Aramco and Governor of PIF) has joined the RIL board, while YP Trivedi has offered to resign from the board (appointed in 1992). c. The company aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2035. d. The New Green Energy and New Materials businesses were announced. e. The Dhirubhai Ambani Green Energy Giga complex would be set up in Jamnagar. An overall initial investment of INR750b is planned over the next three years. This includes INR600b towards setting up four Giga factories and the remaining INR150b towards the value chain, partnerships, and future technologies. f. The company would build four Giga factories – to manufacture and integrate all the critical components for clean and green energy. An integrated solar photovoltaic factory for solar cells would enable 100GW by 2030. An advanced energy storage Giga factory is planned. An electrolyzer manufacturing facility is planned for green hydrogen production. A fuel cell Giga factory is planned; fuel cells find use in transportation, among other applications. g. Furthermore, RIL would create two sub-divisions: Dedicated Renewable Energy Management and Constructions division Dedicated Renewable Energy Finance division h. RIL would also build India’s first carbon fiber plant to support the hydrogen and solar ecosystems. i. All of these would provide opportunities for the existing O2C business: Decarbonizing and turning net carbon zero in the legacy business Commercializing multi-feed catalytic cracking (MCC) technology 2. Reliance Jio: a. Jio is presently the world's second largest mobile data carrier; it handles monthly traffic of over 6.3b gigabytes. b. Investments: During the recent spectrum auctions, the company has invested INR571.2b, in addition to INR151.8b, to strengthen its network infrastructure to acquire significant additional spectrum – making it the largest operator of 4G spectrum in India. Furthermore, the company has operationalized nearly 100% of this additional spectrum. These investments have created the capacity to accommodate additional 200m subscribers. c. Jio Fiber: Jio Fiber acquired >2m new premises last year. Currently, with a cumulative base of 3m active home and business users, it is the largest fixed broadband operator in India. d. Google partnership: 24 June 2021 3 Reliance Industries JIOPHONE NEXT: Jio, along with Google, has jointly developed an affordable smartphone called JioPhone Next. This phone is expected to be available in the market from 10th Sep’21. This would be a fully featured smartphone with an Android Play Store, and would be packed with features such as voice and language assistance and a smart camera, with augmented reality filters. It is expected to be among the most affordable smartphones and would be launched in India and then globally. Furthermore, Reliance Retail would shift its core ops to Google Cloud, enabling it to take advantage of Google's AI and machine learning, e- commerce, and demand forecasting offerings.
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