When Modern Economics Learned French Jacques Drèze and the Foundation of CORE
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The Artificial Cold War Content of Game Theory and Operations Research Richard Vahrenkamp [University of Kassel, Germany]
real-world economics review, issue no. 88 subscribe for free Nominal science without data – the artificial Cold War content of Game Theory and Operations Research Richard Vahrenkamp [University of Kassel, Germany] Copyright: Richard Vahrenkamp 2019 You may post comments on this paper at https://rwer.wordpress.com/comments-on-rwer-issue-no-88/ Abstract Expanding upon literature on early digital computers, this paper shows the role mathematicians have undertaken in founding the academic fields of Game Theory and Operations Research, and details how they were supported by the mathematics departments of military agencies in branches of the US Armed Services. This paper claims that application is only decoration. Other than astronomy, physics and engineering, where experiments generate data analysed with the aid of models and appropriate software on computers, Game Theory and Operations Research are not data driven but method driven and remain a branch of applied mathematics. They use the method of “abstractification” in economy and society to derive their models but lack a layer of empirical research needed to generate data and to apply their methods in economics and society. Therefore, their models were only nominal mathematics without application. Introduction Since 1945, the United States had experienced a unique innovation push with the computer, the nuclear weapon, new air combat weapons and the transistor within just a few years. These innovations were accompanied by Game Theory and Operations Research in the academic field. Widely–held is the view that computers supplemented the mathematical concepts of Game Theory and Operations Research and gave these fields a fresh impulse. Together, they established the view of the world as a space of numbers and introduced quantitative methods in economics, political science and in sociology. -
Strength in Numbers: the Rising of Academic Statistics Departments In
Agresti · Meng Agresti Eds. Alan Agresti · Xiao-Li Meng Editors Strength in Numbers: The Rising of Academic Statistics DepartmentsStatistics in the U.S. Rising of Academic The in Numbers: Strength Statistics Departments in the U.S. Strength in Numbers: The Rising of Academic Statistics Departments in the U.S. Alan Agresti • Xiao-Li Meng Editors Strength in Numbers: The Rising of Academic Statistics Departments in the U.S. 123 Editors Alan Agresti Xiao-Li Meng Department of Statistics Department of Statistics University of Florida Harvard University Gainesville, FL Cambridge, MA USA USA ISBN 978-1-4614-3648-5 ISBN 978-1-4614-3649-2 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-4614-3649-2 Springer New York Heidelberg Dordrecht London Library of Congress Control Number: 2012942702 Ó Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. Exempted from this legal reservation are brief excerpts in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis or material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the Copyright Law of the Publisher’s location, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. -
September 2010
THE ISBA BULLETIN Vol. 17 No. 3 September 2010 The official bulletin of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis AMESSAGE FROM THE membership renewal (there will be special provi- PRESIDENT sions for members who hold multi-year member- ships). Peter Muller¨ The Bayesian Nonparametrics Section (IS- ISBA President, 2010 BA/BNP) is already up and running, and plan- [email protected] ning the 2011 BNP workshop. Please see the News from the World section in this Bulletin First some sad news. In August we lost two and our homepage (select “business” and “mee- big Bayesians. Julian Besag passed away on Au- tings”). gust 6, and Arnold Zellner passed away on Au- gust 11. Arnold was one of the founding ISBA ISBA/SBSS Educational Initiative. Jointly presidents and was instrumental to get Bayesian with ASA/SBSS (American Statistical Associa- started. Obituaries on this issue of the Analysis tion, Section on Bayesian Statistical Science) we Bulletin and on our homepage acknowledge Juli- launched a new joint educational initiative. The an and Arnold’s pathbreaking contributions and initiative formalized a long standing history of their impact on the lives of many people in our collaboration of ISBA and ASA/SBSS in related research community. They will be missed dearly! matters. Continued on page 2. ISBA Elections 2010. Please check out the elec- tion statements of the candidates for the upco- In this issue ming ISBA elections. We have an amazing slate ‰ A MESSAGE FROM THE BA EDITOR of candidates. Thanks to the nominating commit- *Page 2 tee, Mike West (chair), Renato Martins Assuncao,˜ Jennifer Hill, Beatrix Jones, Jaeyong Lee, Yasuhi- ‰ 2010 ISBA ELECTION *Page 3 ro Omori and Gareth Robert! ‰ SAVAGE AWARD AND MITCHELL PRIZE 2010 *Page 8 Sections. -
Koopmans in the Soviet Union
Koopmans in the Soviet Union A travel report of the summer of 1965 Till Düppe1 December 2013 Abstract: Travelling is one of the oldest forms of knowledge production combining both discovery and contemplation. Tjalling C. Koopmans, research director of the Cowles Foundation of Research in Economics, the leading U.S. center for mathematical economics, was the first U.S. economist after World War II who, in the summer of 1965, travelled to the Soviet Union for an official visit of the Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of the Soviet Academy of Sciences. Koopmans left with the hope to learn from the experiences of Soviet economists in applying linear programming to economic planning. Would his own theories, as discovered independently by Leonid V. Kantorovich, help increasing allocative efficiency in a socialist economy? Koopmans even might have envisioned a research community across the iron curtain. Yet he came home with the discovery that learning about Soviet mathematical economists might be more interesting than learning from them. On top of that, he found the Soviet scene trapped in the same deplorable situation he knew all too well from home: that mathematicians are the better economists. Key-Words: mathematical economics, linear programming, Soviet economic planning, Cold War, Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Tjalling C. Koopmans, Leonid V. Kantorovich. Word-Count: 11.000 1 Assistant Professor, Department of economics, Université du Québec à Montréal, Pavillon des Sciences de la gestion, 315, Rue Sainte-Catherine Est, Montréal (Québec), H2X 3X2, Canada, e-mail: [email protected]. A former version has been presented at the conference “Social and human sciences on both sides of the ‘iron curtain’”, October 17-19, 2013, in Moscow. -
Significance Redux
The Journal of Socio-Economics 33 (2004) 665–675 Significance redux Stephen T. Ziliaka,∗, Deirdre N. McCloskeyb,1 a School of Policy Studies, College of Arts and Sciences, Roosevelt University, Chicago, 430 S. Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL 60605, USA b College of Arts and Science (m/c 198), University of Illinois at Chicago, 601 South Morgan, Chicago, IL 60607-7104, USA Abstract Leading theorists and econometricians agree with our two main points: first, that economic sig- nificance usually has nothing to do with statistical significance and, second, that a supermajority of economists do not explore economic significance in their research. The agreement from Arrow to Zellner on the two main points should by itself change research practice. This paper replies to our critics, showing again that economic significance is what science and citizens want and need. © 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. JEL CODES: C12; C10; B23; A20 Keywords: Hypothesis testing; Statistical significance; Economic significance Science depends on entrepreneurship, and we thank Morris Altman for his. The sympo- sium he has sparked can be important for the future of economics, in showing that the best economists and econometricians seek, after all, economic significance. Kenneth Arrow as early as 1959 dismissed mechanical tests of statistical significance in his search for eco- nomic significance. It took courage: Arrow’s teacher, the amazing Harold Hotelling, had been one of Fisher’s sharpest disciples. Now Arrow is joined by Clive Granger, Graham ∗ Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (S.T. Ziliak), [email protected] (D.N. McCloskey). 1 For comments early and late we thank Ted Anderson, Danny Boston, Robert Chirinko, Ronald Coase, Stephen Cullenberg, Marc Gaudry, John Harvey, David Hendry, Stefan Hersh, Robert Higgs, Jack Hirshleifer, Daniel Klein, June Lapidus, David Ruccio, Jeff Simonoff, Gary Solon, John Smutniak, Diana Strassman, Andrew Trigg, and Jim Ziliak. -
Data Envelopment
Emrouznejad, A., R. Banker, L. Neralić (2019). Advances in Data Envelopment Analysis: Celebrating the 40th anniversary of DEA and the 100th anniversary of Professor Abraham Charnes’ birthday, European Journal of Operational Research, in Press, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2019.02.020 Advances in Data Envelopment Analysis Celebrating the 40th anniversary of DEA and the 100th anniversary of Professor Abraham Charnes’ birthday Ali Emrouznejad1*, Rajiv Banker2, Luka Neralić3 1 Aston Business School, Aston University, Birmingham, UK 2 Fox School of Business and Management, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA 19122, United States 3 University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, Zagreb, Croatia Abraham Charnes was born in Hopewell, Virginia, USA on September 4, 1917, son of Harry and Rebecca Charnes. He died on December 19, 1992 in Austin, Texas at the age of 75. Dr. Charnes graduated in mathematics from the University of Illinois (Urbana-Champaign) in 1938, where he also received a master's degree in mathematics in 1939. After that he received a graduate scholarship to study at Harvard, but this was interrupted by World War II. In 1942 he entered the U. S. Naval Reserve as an Ensign OV(S) and worked in electromagnetics, torpedo performance and control, supersonic flight, fire control, weapon damage assessment and did the first U. S. pro-submarine operations research. He returned to the University of Illinois where he received a PhD degree in 1947. His dissertation was entitled “Wing-Body Interaction in Linear Supersonic Flow” (adviser D. G. Bourgin). In 1948/49 he began his post-doctoral academic career as an Assistant Professor of Mathematics at Carnegie Institute of Technology. -
Curriculum Vitae Personal Data Name : Pierre Pestieau Place
Curriculum Vitae Personal Data Name : Pierre Pestieau Place and date of birth : Froidchapelle, Sept.10, 1943 Citizenship : Belgian Home Address Bvd Albert-Elisabeth, 99-D B - 7000 - Mons - Belgium Home: +3265569426 Cell: +32474852053 Business Address University of Liège - Sart Tilman CORE Université Catholique de Louvain Boulevard du Rectorat, 7 (B 31) Voie du Roman Pays, 34 B – 4000 – Liège – Belgium B – 1348 – Louvain-la -Neuve – Belgium Phone : + 32 4 366 3109 Phone : + 32 10 47 43 07 Fax : + 32 4 366 9318 e-mail : [email protected] Degrees - "Bachelier" (B.A.) in Philosophy, University of Louvain, 1963 - "Licence" (B.A.) in Sociology, Magna cum laude, University of Louvain, 1965 - "Licence et maîtrise" (M.A.) in Economics, Magna cum laude, University of Louvain, 1967 - M. Phil. Yale University, 1970 - Ph.D., Yale University, 1972 Dissertation : Optimal Public Investment and Rates of Discount Scientific Achievements Fellowships and awards 1967-68 : Fellowship from CRB: Belgian-American Educational Foundation, Herbert Hoover Foundation 1968-69 & 1970-71 : Yale University Fellowship 1969-70 : National Science Foundation Fellowship 1987-88 : Fulbright Visiting Fellowship 1989 Francqui Prize 1995 AGF-ASSUBEL Prize 1997 Einaudi Chair in European Studies, Cornell University 2006 Prix Risques-Les Echos 2011 Honorary Degree Uppsala University 2016 Honorary Degree University of Neuchatel 2017 Prix Risques 2018 Teaching 1966-1967 : Teaching Assistant, Department of Economics, University of Louvain 1969-1971 : Teaching Assistant, Department -
December 2000
THE ISBA BULLETIN Vol. 7 No. 4 December 2000 The o±cial bulletin of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis A WORD FROM already lays out all the elements mere statisticians might have THE PRESIDENT of the philosophical position anything to say to them that by Philip Dawid that he was to continue to could possibly be worth ISBA President develop and promote (to a listening to. I recently acted as [email protected] largely uncomprehending an expert witness for the audience) for the rest of his life. defence in a murder appeal, Radical Probabilism He is utterly uncompromising which revolved around a Modern Bayesianism is doing in his rejection of the realist variant of the “Prosecutor’s a wonderful job in an enormous conception that Probability is Fallacy” (the confusion of range of applied activities, somehow “out there in the world”, P (innocencejevidence) with supplying modelling, data and in his pragmatist emphasis P ('evidencejinnocence)). $ analysis and inference on Subjective Probability as Contents procedures to nourish parts that something that can be measured other techniques cannot reach. and regulated by suitable ➤ ISBA Elections and Logo But Bayesianism is far more instruments (betting behaviour, ☛ Page 2 than a bag of tricks for helping or proper scoring rules). other specialists out with their What de Finetti constructed ➤ Interview with Lindley tricky problems – it is a totally was, essentially, a whole new ☛ Page 3 original way of thinking about theory of logic – in the broad ➤ New prizes the world we live in. I was sense of principles for thinking ☛ Page 5 forcibly struck by this when I and learning about how the had to deliver some brief world behaves. -
The Management of Information & Knowledge; Meeting of the Panel on Science and Technology With
DOCUMENT RESUME ED 040 730 LI 002 050 TITLE The Management of Information & Knowledge; Meeting of the Panel on Science and Technology with the Committee on Science and Astronautics, U.S. House of Representatives. INSTITUTION Congress of the U.S., Washington, D.C. House Committee on Science and Astronautics. PUB DATE 70 NOTE 243p.; Proceedings of the 11th meeting, 91st Congress, 2nd session, January 27-29, 1970 EDRS PRICE EDRS Price MF-$1.00 HC-$12.25 DESCRIPTORS *Committees, *Communications, *Computers, *Economics, *Information Processing, Information Systems ABSTRACT The emphasis of the eleventh meeting of the Panelon Science and Technology was on the management of information and knowledge. It was organized essentially as a seminar with twopapers given at each session. The topic of the first twopapers presented was: "Computers, Communications, and the Economy." The papers given at the second session were concerned with the kinds of ideals which have been guiding this society and the adequacy of these ideals. The next two papers covered education in a changing world. The problems of privacy and technological obsolescenceswere covered by another speaker. These papers are interspersed by introductory keynote speeches and discussion, sessions. The appendix contains biographies of the panel participants. (NH) PA$EL, ON SCIENCE AND TgqiNotocy, ' IILEyENTLMMING-' , MANAGEMENT OF INFORMATION & KNOWLEDGE ti, OCEEDING-S, . r;BEFOitE IiiMITTEE JON I AND 18TRONAUTIC$ 1101iSE OF jr,REEIES8NTATIVES' NTETY-FIRST CONGRES 1",SecoNp sESSiopi , e 1 JANUARY 27 '28; AND /29,, 1070i; 1 '1 ./3 [No.' .1 Printed for he use of the Committee\,) au Seienee_ aoa A,stronauttea -1, e. 't, L I . -
Balanced Versus Randomized Field Experiments in Economics: Why W
Balanced versus Randomized Field Experiments in Economics: Why W. S. Gosset aka “Student” Matters By Stephen T. Ziliak1 Abstract: Over the past decade randomized field experiments have gained prominence in the toolkit of empirical economics and policy making. In an article titled "Field Experiments in Economics: The Past, the Present, and the Future," Levitt and List (2009) make three main claims about the history, philosophy, and future of field experiments in economics. They claim that field experiments in economics began in the 1920s and 1930s in agricultural work by Neyman and Fisher. Second, they claim that artificial randomization is essential for good experimental design because, they claim, randomization is the only valid justification for Student's test of significance. Finally, they claim that decision-making in private sector firms will be advanced by partnering with economists doing randomized experiments. Several areas of research have been influenced by the article despite the absence of historical and methodological review. This paper seeks to fill that gap in the literature. The power and efficiency of balanced over random designs - discovered by William S. Gosset aka Student, and confirmed by Pearson, Neyman, Jeffreys, and others adopting a balanced, decision-theoretic and/or Bayesian approach to experiments, is not mentioned in the Levitt and List article. Neglect of Student is regrettable. A body of evidence descending from Student (1911) and extending to Heckman and Vytlacil (2007) suggests that artificial randomization is neither necessary nor sufficient for improving efficiency, identifying causal relationships, and discovering economically significant differences. Three easy ways to improve field experiments are proposed and briefly illustrated. -
Curriculum Vitae for James J. Heckman
September 13, 2021 James Joseph Heckman Department of Economics University of Chicago 1126 East 59th Street Chicago, Illinois 60637 Telephone: (773) 702-0634 Fax: (773) 702-8490 Email: [email protected] Personal Date of Birth: April 19, 1944 Place of Birth: Chicago, Illinois Education B.A. 1965 (Math) Colorado College (summa cum laude) M.A. 1968 (Econ) Princeton University Ph.D. 1971 (Econ) Princeton University Dissertation “Three Essays on Household Labor Supply and the Demand for Market Goods.” Sponsors: S. Black, H. Kelejian, A. Rees Graduate and Undergraduate Academic Honors Phi Beta Kappa Woodrow Wilson Fellow NDEA Fellow NIH Fellow Harold Willis Dodds Fellow Post-Graduate Honors Honorary Degrees and Professorships Doctor Honoris Causa, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna, Austria. Jan- uary, 2017. Doctor of Social Sciences Honoris Causa, Lignan University, Hong Kong, China. November, 2015. Honorary Doctorate of Science (Economics), University College London. September, 2013. Doctor Honoris Causis, Pontifical University, Santiago, Chile. August, 2009. Doctor Honoris Causis, University of Montreal.´ May 2004. 1 September 13, 2021 Doctor Honoris Causis, Bard College, May 2004. Doctor Honoris Causis, UAEM, Mexico. January 2003. Doctor Honoris Causis, University of Chile, Fall 2002. Honorary Doctor of Laws, Colorado College, 2001. Honorary Professor, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China, June, 2014. Honorary Professor, Renmin University, P. R. China, June, 2010. Honorary Professor, Beijing Normal University, P. R. China, June, 2010. Honorary Professor, Harbin Institute of Technology, P. R. China, October, 2007. Honorary Professor, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China, 2003. Honorary Professor, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China, 2001. Honorary Professor, University of Tucuman, October, 1998. -
Time Series Analysis and Simultaneous Equation Econometric Models*
Journal of Econometrics 2 (1974) 17-54. 0 North-Holland Publishing Company TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AND SIMULTANEOUS EQUATION ECONOMETRIC MODELS* Arnold ZELLNER and Franz PALM Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, Chicago, III. 60637, U.S.A. Received July 1973, revised version received November 1973 1. Introduction In this paper we take up the analysis of dynamic simultaneous equation models (SEM’s) within the context of general linear multiple time series processes such as studied by Quenouille (1957). As noted by Quenouille, if a set of variables is generated by a multiple time series process, it is often possible to solve for the processes generating individual variables, namely the ‘final equations’ of Tin- bergen (1940), and these are in the autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) form. ARMA processes have been studied intensively by Box and Jenkins (1970). Further, if a general multiple time series process is appropriately specialized, we obtain a usual dynamic SEM in structural form. By algebraic manipulations, the associated reduced form and transfer function equation systems can be derived. In what follows, these equation systems are presented and their properties and uses are indicated. It will be shown that assumptions about variables being exogenous, about lags in structural equations of SEM’s, and about serial correlation properties of structural disturbance terms have strong implications for the properties of trans- fer functions and final equations that can be tested. Further, we show how large sample posterior odds and likelihood ratios can be used to appraise alternative hypotheses. In agreement with Pierce and Mason (1971), we believe that testing the implications of structural assumptions for transfer functions and, we add, final equations is an important element in the process of iterating in on a model that is reasonably in accord with the information in a sample of data.