PORTLAND ECONOMIC VALUE ATLAS MARKET SCAN The Brookings Institution | Metropolitan Policy Program | May 2019 c1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY By most measures, the Portland metropolitan economy sits in an enviable position. Over the past decade, the metro area expanded production of goods and services at one of the highest rates across the country. It also added jobs faster than the national average. In addition, the high concentration of tradable industries—collections of firms that sell goods and services outside the metro area—helped boost productivity by 22 percent and increase average wages by 12 percent. Finally, more people keep moving to the area, confirming the economic opportunities and high quality of place the metropolitan area offers. Yet these past successes are not guaranteed in the • Business: Tradable industries only employ future. The metropolitan area’s public, private, and 31 percent of all metropolitan workers, but civic leaders must continue to focus on growing generate 45 percent of the area’s production. industries, cultivating a highly-skilled workforce, Growth in tradable industries is anchored by fostering inclusive economic development, and six distinct clusters, all of which demonstrate promoting high quality of life to remain domestically competitiveness by growing employment and globally competitive. Achieving such future faster than comparable national industries. growth requires a suite of built environment Tradable industries, such as semiconductor policies and infrastructure investments that work manufacturing or consulting services, are in service of those broader economic objectives. complemented by local service industries, such as hospitals and restaurants, which represent Moving forward, the Portland metropolitan area is 57 percent of all jobs and are growing at an well-positioned to adopt this two-fold approach in even faster rate. A well-connected airport future plans and investments. Doing so requires a and high-volume freight flows support growth clear understanding of where the metro economy in all industries via access to domestic and stands, how the built environment currently global markets, although persistent highway supports or restricts the drivers of economic congestion could threaten long-term trade growth, and how related public policies and efficiency. investment decisions can improve outcomes in the long-run. • People: The Portland metropolitan area continues to add jobs faster than the national Using a three-pronged framework to judge average and is similar to high-performing economic performance and how each category domestic peers, such as San Diego and relates to the built environment, this market scan Denver. However, much of that job growth is reveals several key findings. within high- and low-skill occupations, which contributes to growing income inequality the built environment. Freight flows, commuting at the regional scale. In particular, inflation- patterns and housing prices are all impacted adjusted changes in median wages are flat significantly by where businesses and households among all workers and negative among black choose to locate. Likewise, travel habits and residents and adults with only a high school location decisions by people and business will diploma. The region also faces persistent be similarly influenced by built environment poverty, including a metropolitan poverty decisions like zoning and capital improvements. rate exceeding 12 percent—higher than most As such, these findings demonstrate the need of its peers—and contains a growing number for a sustained tool to both track progress of neighborhoods with concentrated poverty. against economic development objectives and to determine where built environment policies can • Place: Portland’s business community support improved economic outcomes. demonstrates a mix of concentration and dispersion, with the six tradable clusters locating around job hubs but local service industries dispersed across the metro area. At the same time—and even with nearly 15,000 Defining the Geography new housing units annually permitted since 2014—home values keep rising and residents This Market Scan uses the seven-county of many neighborhoods can no longer afford Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA local increases. Given the broad mix of job metropolitan area as the primary unit and housing locations alongside extensive of geographic analysis. To promote roadway investments, vehicles often offer readability, any singular references to greater access to most destinations. As “Portland” relate to this metropolitan a result, over three-quarters of Portland definition. Metro operates in a subset metropolitan residents drive to work, although of three counties, and the Market Scan multimodal alternatives represent a higher specifically references that geography share of trips than they do in peer metro areas when applicable. Similarly, any and are continuing to experience growth. references to the city of Portland are called-out explicitly. This market scan demonstrates the deep connection between economic development and 3 Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program 01 INTRODUCTION Every day, Portland’s metropolitan economy relies people, but infrastructure and land use policies on a built environment designed and delivered must also act in support of the region’s long- decades ago. The urban core’s old, dense street term economic competitiveness. Manufacturing grid and mixed-use zoning promotes taller and tradable service industries demand efficient buildings and incentivizes job and housing density. access to domestic and global markets. A Highways, rail lines, bike lanes, and other corridor changing climate, seismic threats, and other infrastructure help shuttle travelers between the stressors require environmental resilience. And urban core, other regional centers, residential all workers—regardless of income or demographic neighborhoods, and everywhere in between. characteristics—should be able to afford a home Trade flows follow freight rail alignments, port and and connect to employment opportunities.2 airport locations, highways, and industrial zoning. The Urban Growth Boundary helps to manage Local policymakers, planners, and other public and regional growth. private leaders carry the responsibility to ensure the next phase of physical development supports Yet these legacy plans and investments will these competitiveness goals. Zoning, infrastructure not always be enough to support the Portland investment, pricing, and related decisions will all economy. The population is expected to grow influence where employers choose to locate, how by over 600,000 people and the economy is and where those companies ship goods, which expected to add 370,000 more jobs by 2040 just neighborhoods attract new residents, and how within Metro’s 3-county borders.1 The region will people choose to travel between their homes, jobs, certainly need to build more to accommodate more and other key destinations. Portland’s economy 4 will be physically shaped by such long-term mid-sized firms and making long-term investments policies and investments. in innovation, skills, and traded-sector assets.9 Meanwhile, stagnant wage growth for many Designing new plans and future infrastructure occupations, racial income inequality, challenges improvements, however, must contend with connecting labor pools and employers, and an fiscal realities.3 The federal government, already education and skills gap have combined to create an uncertain financial partner in competitively- a new call for more inclusive forms of economic selected infrastructure projects, may scale back development that seek to intentionally connect net investment.4 While Portland should continue a broader swathe of the population to economic to expect some level of flexible federal funding, it’s opportunity and the benefits of growth.10 prudent for regions to lower expectations around large capital grants like those that supported A core challenge facing economic development MAX light rail’s build-out.5 Likewise, American professionals, then, is to better understand how infrastructure projects continue to grow in cost the built environment impacts inclusive economic over time, limiting the number of projects the development. Pillars of an advanced economy— region can expect to deliver.6 And with much of globally competitive industries; a highly- and the metropolitan area’s infrastructure reaching diversely-skilled workforce; shared prosperity; the end of its useful life, any new expansions vibrant and connected communities—can all must be balanced against long-term maintenance benefit from a built environment that eases the needs.7 Since the region will only be able to invest movement of goods, offers people timely access so much—and likely only build a small number to key destinations, promotes a high quality of life, of transformative projects—maximizing local and enables all residents to afford housing and revenues and returns on investment is crucial. essential goods and services. Executing such a vision—one that promotes Achieving these objectives, however, will require shared economic goals while navigating fiscal improved understanding of where the economy limitations—is a common challenge across the stands today, how the built environment currently country. To respond effectively, built environment supports or restricts the drivers of economic policymakers must step beyond traditional growth, and how related public policies—including measurements of return on investment, such as