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U.S. Metro Economies ANNUAL GMP REPORT The United States The Council on Metro Economies Conference of Mayors and the New American City 1620 Eye Street, NW 1620 Eye Street, NW Washington, DC 20006 Washington, DC 20006 Tel: 202.293.7330 Tel: 202.861.6712 ANNUAL GMP REPORT Fax: 202.293.2352 Fax: 202.293.2352 June 2018 usmayors.org newamericancity.org U.S. Metro Economies Prepared for: Economic Growth and Full Employment The United States Conference of Mayors and The Council on Metro Economies and the New American City Prepared by: THE UNITED STATES CONFERENCE OF MAYORS THE UNITED STATES CONFERENCE OF MAYORS Stephen K. Benjamin Mayor of Columbia, SC President Brian K. Barnett Mayor of Rochester Hills, MI Second Vice President Greg Fischer Chair, Council on Metro Economies and the New American City Mayor of Louisville Tom Cochran CEO and Executive Director Printed on Recycled Paper. do your part! please recycle! ANNUAL GMP REPORT U.S. Metro Economies June 2018 Prepared for: Economic Growth and Full Employment The United States Conference of Mayors and The Council on Metro Economies and the New American City Prepared by: THE UNITED STATES CONFERENCE OF MAYORS METROPOLITAN ECONOMIES AND GROSS METRO PRODUCT In this brief Metro Economies report we illustrate the importance of metropolitan areas to the US and global economy. That influence, and the contribution of metro economies to US economic growth increased to record levels again in 2017. It was the fourth consecutive year of increase. Metropolitan areas dominated US economic growth in 2017. They were home to 85.9% of the nation’s population, and their share of total employment increased to 88.0% as metros added 1.9 million jobs, accounting for 95.9% of all US job gains. The metro shares of US total personal income, 89.0%, wage income, 91.6%, and of real gross domestic product, 91.2%, each increased in 2017. The metro proportion of GDP is 0.5 percentage points higher than a decade ago, and 1.5 percentage points higher than two decades ago. Their share of economic growth in 2017 was even greater – metros contributed 99.5% ($337 billion) of the increase in real GDP. Combined, the nation’s 10 highest-producing metro economies generated $6.8 trillion in economic value in 2017, surpassing the output of the sum of 37 US states. Their combined output exceeds all the nations of the world save China, and is 39% greater than that of Japan, the 3rd largest economy of the world (see Appendix Tables 2 and 4). Many US metros have larger economies than states. New York’s gross metropolitan product (GMP), the largest among metros at $1.66 trillion, exceeds the Gross State Product (GSP) of Texas, and Los Angeles’s exceeds that of Florida, the fourth ranked state in GSP. In many states, metro economies account for almost all of the state economy. In California, for example, the metro share of GSP is 98.9%. In Texas, it is 93.4%; in Florida 98%; and in New York, 97.5%. In 21 states the metro share of GSP exceeds 90%, and in 32 it exceeds 80%. Only in Montana, North Dakota, Wyoming, and Vermont is the metro contribution to GSP lower than 50% of the state economy. (Appendix Tables 3 and 5). The GMP of 38 US metros each surpassed $100 billion in 2017, and we project that Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News and Salt Lake City will as well in 2019. The $10 billion GMP mark was surpassed by 209 metros (55%) in 2017, with Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV, College Station-Bryan, TX and Longview, TX, reaching that level last year. We project that seven more will do so in 2018. (Appendix Table 1) Comparing metro economies to the nations of the world provides further evidence of the importance of US metros as drivers of the global economy. New York’s GMP would rank 10th among the nations of the world, ahead of Canada and Russia. Twelve of the world’s 50 highest-producing economies are US metropolitan areas. Los Angeles would rank 17th, ahead of Indonesia, and Chicago’s metropolitan economy ranks 23rd, larger than Argentina. Dallas, Washington, San Francisco, Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, Atlanta, Seattle, and Miami all rank among the top 50. Of the largest 100 world economies, 37 are US metros. 1 Our 25th largest metro, Pittsburgh, PA, is larger than Hungary, the 38th largest country. (Appendix Table 2) THE US ECONOMY IN 2018 The global economy entered 2018 in the strongest shape it has been in a decade. All regions were contributing to growth. US economic growth is projected to reach 2.8% in 2018 and 2019, the highest since 2015. IHS Markit expects that generally solid gains in employment, driven by robust growth in production, will contribute to a further 0.4- percentage-point decline in the unemployment rate, to 3.5%, by early 2019. This further tightening in labor (and product) markets contributes to additional firming in both wage and price inflation. However, several factors will work to dampen growth over 2019 and 2020. First, solid demand in oil markets, declining global stocks, and concern about supply has raised oil prices by roughly $10–12/barrel. This puts upward pressure on projected inflation. Combined with a recent step-up in reported inflation and faster near-term real growth, this led us to move forward several Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, which will raise the 10- year Treasury note yield earlier in our forecast period. Furthermore, equity values are weaker, while risk spreads and the dollar are higher in this forecast. Employment gains will begin to slow as the immediate effects of fiscal stimulus from the tax cut and the budget deal begin to fade, with gains downshifting from around 200,000 per month to 100,000 per month in the second half of next year. Private sector job gains should continue to weaken throughout this period to average near 70,000 per month in 2020. The labor force participation rate was 62.8% in April, a scant 0.3 percentage point below its expected recovery peak of 63.1%. With baby-boomers aging, participation rates will not return to their earlier peaks. Those small gaps leave little room between now and judgment day for labor force growth, when labor force gains are constrained by population growth. Employment gains must brake sharply when the labor force hits the population wall; otherwise, people have to work longer hours or the wall must give because participation rises more than expected. There is an upper limit, though, on how far the labor force participation rate can flex before demographics become an iron rule. For the near term it is a battleground between how fast the sub-25-year-old labor force ebbs compared with increasing participation of over-65-year-olds. Growth of hourly labor compensation is expected to accelerate because of the further tightening in labor markets. The rise in the employment cost index is expected to increase from 2.5% in 2017 to 3.0% in 2018 and 3.5% by 2021. METRO ECONOMIES IN 2018 Economic growth will continue to be most robust in the South and the West of the US, as population and labor force growth is fastest there. Home construction is increasing steadily, and a manufacturing rebirth is benefitting the Midwest. 2 Appendix Tables 6, 7, 8, and 9 detail the expected outcome, for each metro economy, in job growth, GMP growth, unemployment, and labor force participation. As US unemployment falls to 3.5% in 2018, 63 metros (19%) will have rates less than 3%, and 195 (51%) will have unemployment rates under 4%. Real GMP growth will exceed 3% per year in 72 metros (19%) in 2019-2020, and 2% per year in 239 (63%). In 2020, 81 metros (21%) will have unemployment rates less than 3%, and 247 (65%) less than 4%. FIGURE 1: 2018 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH Percent -1.9 to 0.0 0.1 to 0.8 0.9 to 1.5 1.6 to 2.4 2.5 to 5.5 3 FIGURE 2: 2018-2023 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (AVERAGE ANNUAL) Percent -0.4 to 0.0 0.1 to 0.4 0.5 to 0.8 0.9 to 1.3 1.4 to 2.7 THE LABOR FORCE IN THE NEXT DECADES The growth of the labor force is constrained by the growth rate of population. The retirement of the baby-boom generation will subtract substantial numbers from the labor force even as their participation rates exceed that of prior generations. As baby boomers begin to retire, the share of the US population aged 65 years and over will jump from 16% in 2017 to 22% by 2048, pushing up outlays for Social Security and Medicare. In addition, the growth rate of the working-age population will slow more than that of the overall population. After increasing 0.9% annually over the past 30 years, the population aged 16– 64 years will grow only 0.4% over this time period. Slower long-run increases in the labor force indicate more moderate long-run employment growth in the future. Total civilian employment will rise at an average annual rate of 0.7% from 2018 to 2048. Total establishment employment will rise from 153 million in 2018 to 188 million in 2048. Slow labor force growth will be a drag as well on GDP and GMP growth. Real GDP growth will average only 2.0% annually over the forecast horizon. In order to raise our rate of economic growth in this environment we should do everything we can to expand the productive labor force.
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