Negative Vote Pivotal in Super Tuesday Balloting

The Harris Poll

For release: Thursday AM, March 3, 1988 1988 118 ISSN 0895-7983

NEGATIVE VOTE PIVOTAL IN SUPER TUESDAY BALLOTING

By Louis Harris More than at any time in recent years, the size of the negative vote in both the Republican and Democratic primaries and caucuses will play an appreciable role in the outcome of Super Tuesday next week. On the Republican side, here is a rundown of the number of GOP and independent voters who say they could not vote for one of the four candidates remaining in that presidential race according to this Harris Poll, taken by telephone between February 18th and 23rd, among a cross section of 1,500 adults, yielding 627 Republican and independent voters and 634 Democratic and independent voters: -- Fully 58 percent of all Republican voters and a higher 63 percent of independent voters say that if former TV preacher Pat Robertson were nominated by the GOP this summer in New Orleans they could not vote for him. This is the highest negative vote for any candidate the Harris Poll has ever recorded. By region, anti-Robertson sentiment is strongest on the West coast, where 71 percent of all Republican voters and 75 percent of independents say they could not vote for him if he won the nomination. By contrast, in the South, a much lower 51 percent of GOP voters and 56 percent of independents feel the L same about Robertson. Other key groups particularly negative about the ex-TV religious broadcasting executive are Republicans and independents under 30, Yuppies, those with a four year college degree or a postgraduate degree, high income voters, union members, and liberals. Among all those likely to vote on Super Tuesday, 53 percent of all Republican voters and 58 percent of independents say they could not vote for Robertson if he were nominated by the Republicans for president. -- In the case of Representative Jack Kemp, 16 percent of all Republicans and a higher 18 percent of independent voters say they could not cast their ballots for him if he were the GOP standard-bearer in November. The New York Congressman is particularly unpopular in the East, among the Baby Boom generation, and among those elderly citizens 65 and over. He is also not popular among Republicans and independents who are women, lower income voters, blacks, blue collar workers, union members, and followers of white evangelical preachers.

-- A lower 15 percent of all GOP and independent voters say they could not vote for Vice President George Bush if he were to end up the nominee of his party. This number has gone up from 11 percent who felt that way last fall, before the Republican contest became bitterly contested. A smaller 11 percent of Republicans and a higher 21 percent of independent voters say they could not bring themselves to vote for Bush under any circumstances. Most negative among Republicans and independents are those who live in the West, rural and small town voters, voters aged 40-49, women, business executives, moderates, and white Catholics. This negative vote is somewhat higher than is usually the case with the frontrunner for his party's nomination. -- In the case of Bob Dole, 9 percent of all Republicans and 8 percent of all independent voters say they could not vote for him if he were nominated. However, this, too, is up from 7 percent last fall. Most opposed to Dole are southern voters, especially those voting on Super Tuesday, younger voters, the less well educated, union members, white collar workers, and followers of white evangelical preachers. On the Democratic side, four of the six candidates left in the race pick up opposition in double digit numbers: L -- Among all Democratic and independent voters, 37 percent say that if Senator Gary Hart were nominated, they could not vote for him. Particularly negative on Hart are southern voters, suburbanites, those aged 50-64, college graduates, professionals and business executives, white collar workers, higher income people, political moderates, and followers of white TV evangelical preachers. THE HARRIS POLL March 3, 1988 d -- Almost as many Democrats and independents, 35 percent, say they could not vote for Jesse Jackson if he were nominated for president in Atlanta at the Democratic convention in July. A total of 34 percent of the Democrats and 37 percent of the independent voters feel this way about Jackson. Among whites, 41 percent are opposed to him under any circumstances, while no more than 6 percent of the blacks share this view. Political conservatives and white Catholics are particularly opposed to Jesse Jackson. Significantly, however, the opposition to him is much smaller than is the case with Pat Robertson. -- Twenty percent of all Democrats and independents are now opposed to Senator Paul Simon of Illinois, saying they would not vote for him if nominated. -- In the case of Senator Albert Gore of Tennessee, 13 percent of all Democratic and independent voters express the view they could not vote for him if he won the Democratic nomination. Gore is a particular anathema to liberals, those with higher incomes, northern voters, and business executives. - - The two Democratic frontrunners, Governor Michael Dukakis and Representative Richard Gephardt draw much lower negative marks, with no more than 9 percent of all Democratic and independent voters saying they could not vote for them. TABLES Between February 18th and 23rd, the Harris Poll asked a nationwide cross section of 1,500 voters, yielding 627 Republican and independent voters and 634 Democratic and independent voters by telephone: "Let me read you a list of some people who have been mentioned as possible Republican candidates for president in 1988. which people on that list do you feel you could not vote for if nominated for president in 1988? What others?" REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES COULD NOT VOTE FOR REPUBLICANS AND INDEPENDENTS REPUBLICANS INDEPENDENTS **PRJKGBBD NNS PRJKGBBD NNS PRJKGBBD NNS

February 1988 0ct.- Nov. 1987 FEBRUARY 1988 DEMOGRAPHICS TOTAL East Midwest south West Super Tuesday -- all states Super Tuesday -- Southern states Cities Suburbs Towns-rural Age 18-24 25-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65 and over

(***) Yuppies Men Women

(continued) THE HARRIS POLL - 3- March 3, 1988

L REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES COULD NOT VOTE FOR (continued) REPUBLICANS AND INDEPENDENTS REPUBLICANS INDEPENDENTS **PR JK GB BD N NS PR JK GB BD N NS PR JK GB BD N NS

Less than high school High school graduate Some college College graduate Postgraduate Professional Executive Proprietor Skilled labor Unskilled labor White collar $7,500 or less $7,501-$15,000 $15,001-$25,000 $25,001-$35,000 $35,001-$50,000 $50,001 and over Union household Nonunion household Conservative L Moderate Liberal White Protestant 58 18 12 8 19 7 56 20 10 8 22 7 63 12 18 8 14 7 White Catholic 60 14 18 5 12 9 57 9 20 7 9 10 63 19 15 4 15 8 White TV Evangelical followers 42 23 10 12 24 8 41 24 9 12 26 10 46 16 11 15 17 - (***)Yuppies = at least some college and age 18-39 (-1 = no response (**)GB = Vice President George Bush BD = Senator Bob Dole JK = Representative Jack Kemp PR = Reverend Pat Robertson N = None NS = ~otsure "Let me read you a list of some people who have been mentioned as possible Democratic candidates for president in 1988. Which people on that list do you feel you could not vote for if nominated for president in 1988? What others?" DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES COULD NOT VOTE FOR Michael Richard Albert Gary Jesse Pau1 Not **Dukakis Gephardt Gore Hart Jackson Simon None Sure % % % % % % % % February 1988 October 1987 FEBRUARY 1988 DEMOGRAPHICS TOTAL L East Midwest South West THE HARRIS POLL -4- March 3, 1988 1 d DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES COULD NOT VOTE FOR (continued) Michael Richard Albert Gary Jesse Paul Not **Dukakis Gephardt Gore Hart Jackson Simon None Sure 0 % % % % % % % Cities 11 Suburbs 6 Towns-rural 11 Age 18-24 13 25-29 7 30-39 10 40-49 6 50-64 9 65 and over 9 Less than high school High school graduate Some college College graduate Postgraduate White Black Hispanic Professional Executive Proprietor Skilled labor Unskilled labor White collar $7,500 or less $7,501-815,000 $15,001-$25,000 $25,001-$35,000 835,001-$50,000 $50,001 and over Democrat Independent Conservative Moderate Liberal White Protestant 8 6 12 4 3 3 8 19 19 13 White Catholic 9 11 14 3 7 4 6 2 8 13 8 White TV Evangelical followers 5 6 12 41 3 3 19 15 21 (**I = Governor Michael Dukakis = Representative Richard Gephardt = Senator Albert Gore = Former Senator Gary Hart = Reverend Jesse Jackson = Senator Paul Simon (x) = not asked

(continued) I THE HARRIS POLL March 3, 1988

METHODOLOGY This Harris Poll was conducted by telephone within the United States between February 18th and 23rd, among a cross section of 1,500 voters nationwide, yielding 627 Republican and independent voters and 634 Democratic and independent voters. Figures for age, sex, race and education were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. In a sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus three percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled.

This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.