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33Rd Research Students' Conference in Probability and Statistics

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33Rd Research Students' Conference in Probability and Statistics 33rd Research Students’ Conference in Probability and Statistics 12th -15th April 2010 Conference Proceedings Timetable of Events Monday 12th April 13:00 Registration of Delegates (The Street) 15:00 Afternoon Tea (The Street) 15:30 Opening Address & Plenary Session (MS.01, Maths/Stats Building) 15:30 Opening Address: Prof. Jane L. Hutton (University of Warwick) 15:45 Plenary Talk I: Prof. Jim Q. Smith (University of Warwick) 16:20 Plenary Talk II: Dr. Jonathan Rougier (University of Bristol) 16:55 Announcements/Housekeeping 18:00 Dinner (Rootes Social Building) 19:00 Pub Quiz (Varsity Pub) Tuesday 13th April 07:30 Breakfast (Rootes Social Building) 09:10 Session 1 (Math/Stats Building) 11:10 Refreshments (The Street) 11:30 Session 2 (Math/Stats Building) 13:30 Lunch (The Street) 14:30 Session 3 (Math/Stats Building) 16:10 Poster Session and Refreshments (The Street) 18:00 Dinner (Rootes Social Building) 19:00 Evening Entertainment (Coventry City Centre) 19:00 Bus Collection by Students Union to Cross Point Business Park (Bowling and Cinema) 19:30 Bus Collection by Students Union to Town Hall (Pub Crawl) 3 22:00 Bus Collection from Bowling and Cinema to Campus 23:30 First Bus Collection from Pub to Campus 00.30 Second Bus Collection from Pub to Campus Wednesday 14th April 07:30 Breakfast (Rootes Social Building) 09:10 Session 4 (Math/Stats Building) 11:10 Refreshments (The Street) 11:30 Session 5 (Math/Stats Building) 13:30 Lunch (The Street) 14:30 Sponsors’ Talks (Math/Stats Building) 16:10 Sponsors’ Wine Reception (The Street) 18:15 Bus Collection to Conference Dinner (Coventry Transport Museum) 22:15 First Bus Collection to Campus 23:45 Second Bus Collection to Campus Thursday 15th April 07:30 Breakfast (Rootes Social Building) 09:30 Delegates Depart 4 Contents 1 Welcome from the Organisers 7 2 The City and University 8 3 Campus Map 11 4 University Facilities 12 5 Accommodation 12 6 Conference Details 13 6.1 Meals . 13 6.2 Sponsors’ Wine Reception . 13 7 Help, Information and Telephone Numbers 14 7.1 Departmental Computing and Internet Access . 14 8 Instructions 15 8.1 For Chairs . 15 8.2 For Speakers . 15 8.3 For Displaying a Poster . 16 8.4 Prizes . 16 9 Plenary Session 17 9.1 Professor Jane L. Hutton (University of Warwick) . 17 9.2 Professor Jim Q. Smith (University of Warwick) . 18 9.3 Dr. Jonathan Rougier (University of Bristol) . 19 10 List of Sponsors’ Talks 20 11 Talks Schedule 21 11.1 Monday 12th April . 21 11.2 Tuesday 13th April . 22 11.3 Wednesday 14th April . 28 12 Talk Abstracts by Session 32 12.1 Tuesday 13th April . 32 12.1.1 Session 1a: Image Analysis . 32 12.1.2 Session 1b: Computational Statistics . 36 12.1.3 Session 1c: Operational Research . 39 12.1.4 Session 1d: Statistical Inference . 42 12.1.5 Session 2a: Medical Statistics I . 45 12.1.6 Session 2b: Financial . 48 12.1.7 Session 2c: Elicitation and Epidemiology . 51 12.1.8 Session 2d: Multivariate Statistics . 54 5 12.1.9 Session 3a: Genetics . 56 12.1.10 Session 3b: Medical Statistics II . 59 12.1.11 Session 3c: Dimension Reduction . 62 12.1.12 Session 3d: Environmental . 65 12.2 Wednesday 14th April . 68 12.2.1 Session 4a: Medical Statistics III . 68 12.2.2 Session 4b: Point Processes and Spatio-temporal Statistics . 71 12.2.3 Session 4c: General . 74 12.2.4 Session 4d: Graphical Models and Extreme Value Theory . 77 12.2.5 Session 5a: Experimental Design and Population Genetics . 79 12.2.6 Session 5b: Censoring in Survival Data and Non-Parametric Statistics . 82 12.2.7 Session 5c: Time Series and Diffusions . 85 12.2.8 Session 5d: Probability . 88 12.2.9 Session 6a: Sponsors’ Talks . 91 12.2.10 Session 6b: Sponsors’ Talks . 92 12.2.11 Session 6c: Sponsors’ Talks . 93 13 Poster Abstracts by Author 94 14 RSC 2011: Cambridge University 103 15 Sponsors’ Advertisements 104 16 RSC History 115 17 Delegate List 116 6 1 Welcome from the Organisers Welcome to the 33rd Research Students’ Conference in Statistics and Probability (RSC 2010). This year the conference is hosted by the University of Warwick. The RSC is an annual event aiming to provide postgraduate statisticians and probabilists with an appropriate forum to present their research. This four day event is organised by postgraduates, for postgraduates, providing an excellent opportunity to make con- tacts and discuss work with other students, who have similar interests. For many students this will be your first experience of presenting your work, with some of you also taking the opportunity to chair a session. For those of you attending and not presenting, we hope that you will benefit greatly from observing others and networking with researchers working in a similar field. Finally, we will be looking for potential hosts for RSC 2012. If you think your institution would be keen to take part in such an exciting project, please let us know. Next year the conference will be held in Cambridge. Mouna Akacha, Flavio´ Gonc¸alves, Bryony Hill and Jennifer Rogers Conference Organisers 7 2 The City and University The University of Warwick is one of the leading UK research universities and is ranked number 1 in the Midlands. Consistently ranked in the top ten of UK uni- versities, it is an entrepreneurial institution that has a large positive impact on local and regional communities. The University is located in the heart of England, 3 miles (5 kilometres) from Coventry city centre, on the border with Warwickshire. Coventry Coventry is a city and metropolitan borough in the county of West Midlands in Eng- land. Coventry is the 9th largest city in England and the 11th largest in the United Kingdom. It is also the second largest city in the English Midlands, after Birmingham. Coventry is situated 95 miles (153 km) northwest of London and 19 miles (30 km) east of Birmingham, and is farthest from the coast of any city in Britain. Although harbouring a population of almost a third of a million inhabitants, Coventry is not amongst the English Core Cities Group, due to its proximity to Birmingham. Coventry was also the world’s first ‘twin’ city when it formed a twinning relation- ship with the Russian city of Stalingrad (now Volgograd) during World War II. The relationship developed through ordinary people in Coventry who wanted to show their support for the Soviet Red Army during the Battle of Stalingrad. The city is now twinned with Dresden and with 27 other cities around the world. Coventry Cathedral is one of the newer cathedrals in the world, having been built following the World War II bombing of the ancient cathedral by the Luftwaffe. Coventry motor companies have contributed significantly to the British motor indus- try, and it has two universities, the city centre-based Coventry University as well as the University of Warwick on the southern outskirts. In the late 19th century, Coventry became a major centre of bicycle manufacture, with the industry being pioneered by Rover. By the early 20th century, bicycle man- ufacture had evolved into motor manufacture, and Coventry became a major centre of the British motor industry. Over 100 different companies have produced motor vehicles in Coventry, but car production came to an end in 2006 as the last car rolled off the lines at Peugeot’s Ryton plant. Production was transferred to a new plant near Trnava, Slovakia, with the help of EU grant aid to Peugeot: this made Peugeot deeply unpopular in the city. The design headquarters of Jaguar Cars is still in the city at their Whitley plant and although they ceased vehicle assembly at their Browns Lane plant in 2004, they still continue some operations from there. A major visitor attraction in Coventry city centre is the free-to-enter Coventry Transport Museum, which has the largest collection of British-made road vehicles in the world and will be the venue for our Conference Dinner. The most notable exhibits are the world speed record-breaking cars, Thrust2 and ThrustSSC. The museum re- ceived a major refurbishment in 2004 which included the creation of a striking new entrance as part of the city’s Phoenix Initiative project. The revamp saw the museum exceed its projected five-year visitor numbers within the first year alone, and it was 8 a finalist for the 2005 Gulbenkian Prize. The most famous daughter of Coventry is Lady Godiva. Her ride through the streets of the city has passed into legend. According to the popular story, Lady Go- diva took pity on the people of Coventry, who were suffering grievously under her husband’s oppressive taxation. Lady Godiva appealed again and again to her hus- band, who obstinately refused to remit the tolls. At last, weary of her entreaties, he said he would grant her request if she would strip naked and ride through the streets of the town. Lady Godiva took him at his word and, after issuing a proclamation that all persons should stay indoors and shut their windows, she rode through the town, clothed only in her long hair. Today a statue positioned in the heart of the city centre is reminding of her braveness. The University The establishment of the University of Warwick was given approval by the govern- ment in 1961 and received its Royal Charter of Incorporation in 1965. It straddles the boundary between the City of Coventry and the County of Warwickshire. The idea for a university in Coventry was mooted shortly after the conclusion of the Second World War, but it was a bold and imaginative partnership of the City and the County which brought the University into being on a 400 acre site jointly granted by the two authorities.
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