Columbia FDI Profiles
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Columbia FDI Profiles Country profiles of inward and outward foreign direct investment issued by the Vale Columbia Center on Sustainable International Investment May 17, 2010 Editor-in-Chief: Karl P. Sauvant Editor: Thomas Jost Managing Editors: Zehra G. Kavame and Ana-Maria Poveda-Garces Inward FDI in Argentina and its policy context by Beatriz Nofal, Cecilia Nahon and Carolina Fernandez* With a long-standing tradition of an international business presence, Argentina followed an open investment policy since its early stages of development. The most recent wave of foreign direct investment (FDI) growth took place between 2004 and 2008, with investments primarily in the manufacturing, natural resources and new technology sectors. In 2008, inward FDI flows reached US$ 10 billion, positioning the country as a relevant investment destination worldwide. Moreover, with a 50% annual increase, Argentina was one of the ten fastest growing FDI destinations in the world. 1 In 2009, inward FDI contracted due to the global economic crisis in line with the rest of the world. Trends and developments Country-level developments 2 Beginning in the late 19th century, Argentina registered four distinct waves of inward FDI, the first under the agro-export model of development and the following under import substitution industrialization. In the following wave in the 1990s, FDI was fuelled initially by a broad privatization process and later driven by a widespread series of mergers and acquisitions (M&As), both mainly targeting services, public utilities and * Beatriz Nofal ([email protected] ) is President of Argentina’s Investment Development Agency (ProsperAr); Cecilia Nahon ([email protected] ) is Manager of Strategy and Investment Climate; and Carolina Fernandez ([email protected] ) is Head of Contents and Publications at ProsperAr. The authors wish to thank Alicia Caballero, Diego Finchelstein, Nicole Moussa, and Carlos Razo for their helpful comments. The views expressed by the individual authors in this Profile do not necessarily reflect opinions of Columbia University, its partners and supporters. Columbia FDI Profiles is a peer-reviewed series. 1 ProsperAr based on UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2009: Transnational Corporations, Agricultural Production and Development (New York and Geneva: United Nations, 2009). The ranking is based on all countries receiving more than US$ 5 billion in FDI inflows in 2008. 2 FDI data cited in this section and in annex tables 1 through 4 come from the two main official sources responsible for recording FDI statistics in Argentina: the National Office for International Statistics at the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) and Argentina’s Central Bank (BCRA). Both sources follow the methodology established in the International Monetary Fund’s Balance of Payments Manual (fifth edition). Data on FDI flows are based on INDEC statistics, which are also the source for UNCTAD and IMF. FDI stock data from 2000 to 2003 are also cited from INDEC reports. Stock data from 2004 to 2008 are cited from BCRA reports, which offer more details for those years. 1 the oil sector. The two trends were reflected in the high share of changes in ownership in FDI inflows in the period, which accounted for 57% of total flows. As a result, while FDI inflows reached an annual average of US$ 7 billion during the 1990-2000 period, 3 flows net of privatizations averaged US$ 5 billion,4 and flows net of all changes in ownership recorded a lower annual average of US$ 4 billion for the same period. Growing foreign investments were reflected in an expanding FDI stock that reached US$ 80 billion in 2001 (annex table 1). Inward FDI flows declined sharply in 2001 due to domestic and international developments. The effects of the global decline in FDI flows (41%) were magnified locally by the convertibility crisis in Argentina, severely impacting FDI inflows to the country: they dropped by 79% (annex table 2). Furthermore, the effect of the peso devaluation resulted in a sharp drop in the dollar value of the inward FDI stock, which was cut by almost half to US$ 43 billion in 2002. During the period of 2002-2003, foreign affiliates underwent a phase of reorganization and restructuring after the local crisis, with FDI inflows contracting at the domestic level as well as globally. By 2002, following the peso devaluation, debt levels of foreign affiliates in Argentina rose to 67% of assets.5 In this context, many companies were forced to reduce and restructure their debt, returning to healthy balance sheets remarkably fast. Between 2004 and 2008, rapid economic growth, increased domestic demand, high levels of profitability, and renewed competitiveness - combined with a favorable international environment - contributed to a vigorous expansion of FDI inflows. For five consecutive years, inflows expanded at a compound annual growth rate of 43%, substantially higher than the growth rate for the world (25%) and developing countries (28%) over the same period. As a result, annual inflows reached an average of US$ 6 billion during 2004-2008, surpassing since 2005 average annual flows net of privatizations registered in the 1990s. The inward FDI stock rose steadily, to reach the 2001 level of US$ 80 billion again in 2008 (annex table 1), a level that placed Argentina among the leading FDI recipients in Latin America, below Brazil, Mexico and Chile. In a broader context, Argentina ranked 14th among emerging markets in FDI stock in 2008. 3 This average figure includes the extraordinary FDI inflow received in 1999 (US$ 24 billion) mainly due to Repsol’s purchase of the oil and gas company YPF, the country’s largest company. This unique operation accounted for more than 60% of FDI flows that year and included the purchase of outstanding shares still held by the public sector and the associated purchase of YPF’s publicly traded shares dispersed among minority shareholders. 4 Figure corresponds to average annual inflows net of privatizations and net of Repsol’s associated purchase in 1999 of YPF publicly traded shares. Figures net of privatizations are presented with the sole purpose of providing a homogeneous measure of comparison of FDI inflows over time. State-owned companies in Argentina (in the public utilities and energy sectors) were all sold during the wave of privatization of the 1990s, resulting in exceptional inflows of FDI. Given that privatizations are one-off events, a comparison of total FDI flows received during the 1990s with those corresponding to the period under analysis (2000-2008) could lead to inaccurate conclusions. 5 G. Bezchinsky, M. Dinenzon, L. Giussani, O. Caino, B. Lopez, and S. Amiel, “Inversión extranjera directa en la Argentina. Crisis, reestructuración y nuevas tendencias después de la convertibilidad,” in B. Kossacoff, ed., Crisis, Recuperación y Nuevos Dilemas: La Economía Argentina 2002-2007 (Buenos Aires: ECLAC, 2007), p. 162. 2 During the 2004-2008 growth phase, FDI was mainly driven by greenfield investments by both already established foreign affiliates and new international companies entering the local market. As a result, changes in ownership (i.e. M&As and privatizations) represented only a fraction (7%) of total FDI flows in the five year period, down from 57% during the 1990s. The new composition of FDI flows is evidence of improvements in the quality of foreign investment in Argentina, as greenfield investments tend to make greater contributions to capital formation and employment than M&A operations.6 The rise in reinvested earnings as a share of total FDI, which accounted for an average of 25% between 2005-2008, is also noteworthy. The sectoral distribution of the inward FDI stock of Argentina has been relatively stable since 2004 (annex table 3). Manufacturing, natural resources and services (including financial services) each accounted for approximately one third of the total stock on average during this phase (35%, 34%, 31%, respectively). A closer look at FDI flows reveals a trend of a growing share of manufacturing at the expense of natural resources. Specifically, the manufacturing sector’s share in FDI inflows rose from 40% in 2005 to 58% in 2008, while natural resources, which accounted for 30% in 2005, declined to 12% in 2008. The recent dynamism of the IT and software sector in Argentina is also worth highlighting as the presence of leading global companies in this sector has continued to increase in recent years. 7 In terms of the geographical distribution of the inward FDI stock, Europe remained the main source for FDI in Argentina, followed by North America and South America. The top five investors measured by the value of their FDI stock in Argentina in 2008 were Spain, the United States, the Netherlands, Brazil, and Chile. In terms of flows, Spain led most years, but was surpassed by Brazil for the first time in 2008 (annex table 4). The importance of Brazil as a home country for FDI in Argentina is a relatively new phenomenon. The upward trend of Brazilian investments since 2002 is a consequence of a combination of four factors: first, opportunities brought about by the recovery and rapid expansion of the Argentine economy following the 2001-2002 crisis; second, Brazil’s economic growth combined with the financial support provided by BNDES 8 for the internationalization of its firms; third, the fact that top-tier Argentine companies were, and in some cases still are, relatively undervalued, creating an acquisition opportunity for Brazilian companies, underscored by the relative strength of the Brazilian currency vis-à-vis the Argentine peso. Finally, the fourth factor was the regional integration and the close partnership between the two countries, institutionalized by MERCOSUR, which played a key role in making Argentina a natural first step in the internationalization process of Brazilian companies. Brazil’s greater share of FDI reflects a broader trend in which capital from developing countries has a growing role in overall FDI in Argentina.