www.StrategicStudies.org. www.DFAonline.net The Triumph of Belief 8, 2018 8, 2018 Sovereignty is not just a legal framework. It is deeply rooted in society. Or it fails.

His Majesty King Tupoa VI, of Tonga, at his coronation, July 4, 2015

A new wave of nationalism is sweeping the world, but do we understand it, and where it’s going?

The 20th Century brought the global supply chain architecture into sharp relief, culminating with the Internet era. It brought not just the framework of globalization, but urbanization. With these came the belief system of globalism: the philosophy which seemed to spell the end of the Westphalian nation-state structure, nationalism, and borders. But this “globalism” movement, largely linking urban societies around the world, also generated the pendulum response — as it threatened the identity security of many peoples and even civilizations — of reviving the importance of nationalism, and the need to re-assert sovereignty. Many large groupings of people have expressed disillusionment and distrust in modern governance, and many have felt robbed by the manipulation of modern forms of ballot-box democracy. The search for answers, then, goes to the past as well as in understanding the promises of the future. Thousands of national and sub-national historical hierarchies retain their vibrancy and importance to social cohesion, as the reassertion of the importance of sovereignty, Westphalian or otherwise. The Center for the Study of Monarchy, Traditional Governance, and Sovereignty, at The International Strategic Studies Association (ISSA), was created in 2016 to study the sweeping, historical forces which define human societal and civilizational organization. It was named “The Zahedi Center” in honor of former Iranian Foreign Minister and Ambassador Ardeshir Zahedi and his late father, former Iranian Prime Minister Fazlollah Zahedi, and Amb. Zahedi has joined with His Imperial Highness Prince Ermias Sahle-Selassie Haile-Selassie as patrons of the Center. Already the Center has developed a strong core of on-line resources for academic and policy researchers at: http://strategicstudies.org/Monarchy%20Center/Monarchy.htm Please consider using, joining, and supporting the Center as an Associate, a Member, or even more. It’s not just about the past. It’s about the future. And how societies are looking at the structures they already have.

The Center for the Study of Monarchy, Traditional Governance, and Sovereignty The Zahedi Center At The International Strategic Studies Association PO Box 320608, , Virginia 22320, United States of America. Telephone +1 (703) 548-1070. Facsimile +1 (703) 684-7476. Email: [email protected]. wwwStrategicStudies.org Defense Foreign Affairs StrategicP olicy The Journal of the Inter na tional Strate gic Studies Asso ci a tion

www.StrategicStudies.org. www.DFAonline.net

Special Studies of the Ira nian Rev o lu tion - 16en clair The inter na tional 4 sea lanes⁄africa ary Guard Corps, to Nigeria’s Buhari jour nal of national be come in creas ingly cen - Government Red Sea Rising tral to the trans for mation Implodes manage ment The Red Sea is emerg ing of Iran’s polit i cal leader - Nige ria’s inter nal secu rity as a key global strate gic ship over the coming year sit u a tion was, by mid-Au - dy namic thanks to a rev o- or two. Founded in 1972 lution begun in Ethio pia. gust 2018, at a tipping ______12 middle east point, with Pres. Buhari found ing ed i tors The trans for ma tion Can Wishing Make Greg ory R. Cop ley moves back to a 3,000- unable to con trol cor rup - It So? tion, law en force ment, or Dr Stefan T. Possony year-old pattern, and is 1915-1995 Histor i cal fatal ism, water the war against insurgents. far from done. The rap- ______idly-evolving events and and food short ages, and Turkey’s Crisis May ed i tor-in-chief changing strate gic balance jihadism con spire to set Be Terminal Gregory R. Cop ley center around the new the stage for a ma jor con - Ankara seems to be lieve [email protected] The Cover Ethio pian Govern ment of flict esca la tion based on that the US will stop short asso ci ate edi tor-in-chief Prime Min is ter Abiy “Greater Syria”. It is al- of forc ing Tur key out of Dr Stefan T. Possony, 1972-1995 The Tri umph of Be lief is a theme Ahmed Ali, 41, who came ready under way. A myriad NATO, destroy ing its cur - se nior ed i tor car ried through some of the analy sis of grass roots her i tage Yossef Bodansky, in this edi tion, start ing with the to office on April 2, 2018. rency, and pushing it into But much now depends grievances is coming to the an al li ance with Rus sia Wash ing ton DC report on page two. The cover shows con trib ut ing ed i tors the Spiri tual Patri arch of the now- on the polit ical — and surface. Signif i cantly, in all and the PRC. But is its re uni fied Ethi o pian Or tho dox the coun tries of the region, Purvis Hussain, Islamabad phys i cal — sur vival of the confi dence justi fied? Sanjiv Prakash, New Delhi Church, , who Prime Minis ter. more seg ments of the 20 current esti mate Da vid Murphy, Wash ing ton, DC returned to on August 9 eurasia grass roots pop u lace are 1, 2018, from decades of exile, with US Faces Exclusion strate gic weapons edi tor partic i pat ing in the ongo - Harvey J. McGeorge, 1949-2009 the new Ethio pian Prime Min is ter. Persian Cæsar? ing protest and ri ots than from the Korean, Prime Minis ter Abiy has galva nized Watch for Maj.-Gen. Silk Road Dynamic indo-pa cific much of the Horn of Africa with a at the height of the orig i - Andrew Pickford belief in its histor i cal destiny, trans- Qasem Soleimani, Com - nal in ti fa das of 2011-12. mander of the Qods Force pen ta gon cor re spon dent form ing stra te gic re al ity on the Freder ick Barnes 1922-2011 ground in this key re gion, as the south-east eu rope re port on page four shows. Beliefs, cor re spon dent too, are driv ing much of the strate gic mo men tum in the Arab Middle Val en tine Spyroglou East, as the re port on page 12 shows. Thessaloniki — Pho to graph of Abune Merkorios balkans corre spon dent by Tay lor Reed Branson. Dr Darko Trifunoviæ, Bel grade www.TaylorReedBranson.com s.e. asia corre spon dent Kerry B. Collison 2 Ja karta & Mel bourne Early Warning space corre spon dent Dr Joan Vernikos u The Tri umph of Belief ______3 Subscription Information pub lisher Strategic Trajectories Pamela von Gruber, Subscription enquiries and payments should be addressed (and checks made payable) to: gcse, gcel, golr, rml, mpr u Aus tra lia Drifts The International Strategic Studies Association Hyp not i cally To ward a PO Box 320608, Alexandria, Virginia 22320, USA. [email protected] Power Change Telephone +1-(703) 548-1070. E-mail: [email protected]. ______ad ver tis ing u The US Back in Space: It’s Websites: www.StrategicStudies.org, www.DFAonline.net, and www.GISresearch.com. 320608 Happen ing, But Without PO Box Rates Alex an dria, Virginia 22320, USA Real Strate gic Debate 1-703-548-1070 US$159 per year; US$289 for two years; US$399 for three years. Student rate: US$80 per year. Telephone + 17 Facsim ile +1-703-684-7476 Power Tables Defense & Foreign Affairs Handbook: CD and Online mar ket [email protected] 18 The new 23rd Edition CD-ROM is available for US$469 (air despatch incl.). The online version at www.DFAonline.net, updated daily, is available from $850 a year. Transitions redit ards ccepted 19 C C A American Express, Visa, MasterCard, Discover. Arms Transfers Copyright © 2018 by the International Strategic Studies Association. Not to be reproduced in any form without written permission of the publisher. The policy of the publications is one of complete non-alignment with any nation, cause or industrialist. This edi tion went to press on issn: 0277-4933 August 21, 2018. Volume xlvi, Number 8, 2018

8, 2018 defense & foreign affairs strategic policy 1. Early Warn ing By Gregory R. Copley The Triumph of Belief ä Some 100-mil lion Ethio pi ans have, since April 2018, be gun city élites for the scien tific pro cess or enlight en ment. to move their country in a new strate gic di rec tion; But un der ly ing each of the factors just mentioned is that each is ä Egyp tians, Aus tri ans, Hun gar i ans, Ital ians, Per sians, and being driven substantially by psycho log i cal (belief) factors, rather Spanish Catalans, not to men tion Kurds: each have be gun than by empir ical ev idence. This applies equally to the ur ban, global - to po larize around a revived sense of iden tity in the past ist, mod ernists of the ma jor econo mies, as well as to the re gional, na - year or two, as they at tempt to en sure their sur vival; tion al ist, tra di tion al ist groups. The pri mary dif fer ence is that the ur - ä So ci eties in Europe, the Ameri cas, and elsewhere have be - ban, global ist, modern ists are — because short-term mate ri al ism has gun to polar ize, often without be ing able to ar ticu late their be come a core be lief system — convinced that they remain faith ful to con cerns, fears, or hopes; the sci entific method. In re al ity, however, real sci ence and engi neer - ä The People’s Repub lic of China (PRC) and the Rus sian Fed - ing have been driven into smaller and smaller so cial spaces, and the era tion have become strenu ously nation al is tic ... “sci ence” of mod ern ma te rial so ci ety has be come — be cause of wide- spread degra da tion of edu ca tion, to the point where histor i cal les- t is as though, in the blink of an eye, peo ple of dif - sons can no longer be un derstood — merely a new be lief system. It is ferent re gions, races, and be liefs have be come galva - the urban soph ists who have embraced the new re ligion of Ra, the sun god of human-in duced climate change. Inized into ac tions which have trans formed the tra jec - Ma te ri al ism dif fers lit tle in its na ture from re li gion, ex cept that the tory of their own, and other, so ciet ies. Some toward need for personal vali da tion (self worth) is derived from tan gibles safety; some to ward chaos. (pos sessions) in one be lief system and in tan gibles in the other. Intan - For many, it has not been a path cho sen for the clear ra tio - gibles tend to be more dura ble and sustain ing than the tan gibles of nale or impe tus of hunger or thirst, or for imme diate safety; mate ri alism, which are short-term. The two belief systems cur rently neither for the lure of tan gible wealth. These are movements op pos ing each other are, then, be ing im pre cisely re duced to mate rial - sep a rate from the eco nomic ma te ri al ism which drives ur - ism (por trayed often as mod ernist and urbanist) versus in tan gi ble baniza tion or trans-national migra tion. tra di tion al ism (of ten por trayed as na tion al ist and re li gious). The main impe tus of mass action in many societies to day As a re sult of this be lief-driven zeal, the scope for compro mise and has been a galvanic series of movements focused around a debate be tween belief groups has di min ished. Be liefs are the final re - single factor: identity. Perhaps, in many in stances, it is the pos itory of hope, confi dence, secu rity against threat, and identity. hope that find ing the se cu rity of one’s clan and rally ing it in They are the only hori zon when our ship is tossed upon dark and vio - collec tive action to defeat marginalization or elimi na tion. lent wa ters. They also are hosts to fear, suspi cion, and paranoia, Why now have so many peo ple around the world — peo- guarded by polit i cal correct ness. ple of such a vast ar ray of be liefs and un der such differ ent Some be liefs work better than oth ers to secure the in ter ests of a so - cir cum stances — chosen to surge into emotion ally-driven ci ety. History has shown that the fewer the depend en cies one has, and collec tives? Two primary reasons beckon: the more that the in struments of survival are under one’s own con - ä Many modern, urban-dom i nated socio-economic-geo- trol, the greater the security in times of great change. That is not to po lit ical struc tures have be gun to col lapse or fail to deliver deny the value of great alli ances and the re tention of options, only on the expec ta tions of them. These structures had given that reli ance on an ally (who may be equally, or even more greatly, safety and ma te rial reward, and, for a while, caused old chal lenged) is a strategy of hope over logic. identi ties and loyal ties to be forgot ten. But a sense of im - In the end, all de pends on the strength and clarity of will in each in - pending uncer tainty in these modern struc tures has induc - di vid ual and so ci ety. As the great stra te gic phi los o pher, Stefan ed a profound fear of the conse quences of contin uing to Possony, artic u lated: strategy and power are about the im po sition of rely on them. Thus people re vert to the “safe haven” of their will on friends and foes. Noth ing more. So those na tion-states with clans, lands, and their myths and cul tures; and the shortest in terior supply lines, the strongest identity, and an im - ä Many so ci eties have be come “post-En light en ment”, aban - pla ca ble sense of will tend to emerge best from peri ods of crisis. don ing ed u ca tion sys tems de voted to the sci en tific method Few states to day exhibit the commit ment to these tenets better and to contex tual his tory. The re sult is that, ab sent knowl - than the PRC and Russia. Yet even they have no guar an tee of stra tegic edge, all faith is placed in the deliv ery of ma te rial ben e fits, suc cess. The PRC, in par tic ular, has an im per a tive to over come its and hi er ar chies based solely on ma te ri al ism. When such global exter nal supply lines in a way no great em pire since the Brit ish systems fail, people re vert to core identi ties. has had to cope. Brit ain — the — at least had for most of its great days of empire the ability to feed and wa ter its core There are also be lief-driven movements which iden tify popu la tion. The PRC does not. And when the UK, dur ing the 20th with — rather than resile from — the sciences and the logic Century’s two world wars, be came de pendent upon foreign supply of of market-driven ratio nales. much of its food, it, too, lost the abil ity to sustain em pire. be - To be clear: the Judeo-Chris tian be lief systems of the came vul nera ble when its supply lines be came lon ger and more diffi - West, or the Buddhist, Shintoist, or Confucianist be liefs of cult to sustain than its will power could man age. Rome and Brit ain Ja pan, did not con tra dict com mit ments to sci en tific prog - be came tired; all civ i li za tions do. ress and enlight en ment so much that they pre vented stra te- Now it is the “tra di tional ist” movements which are break ing down gic growth and na tional se cu rity. Thus, be lief-driven na- the anti-sov er eignty global archi tec ture of the past half cen tury and tion al ism is no barrier to enlight ened growth. And ur ban pushing it back into a frame work of sover eign nations. The im petus ma teri al ism is no guar an tee that there is re spect among the for to mor row is not ma te rial prog ress but an in ner, burn ing light. H

2. defense & foreign affairs strategic policy 8, 2018 Strate gic Trajec to ries In di ca tors of emerg ing pat terns of global sig nif i cance nottuD retsiniM emoH remrof dna )tfel( )tfel( dna remrof emoH retsiniM nottuD Austra lia Drifts Hypnotically Toward a Power Change Aus tra lian Prime Min is ter Malcolm Turnbull on August 21, 2018, survived a se rious leader ship chal lenge from within his own Cabi net, fol lowed by a Par liamen tary no-con fidence mo tion, but the saga has not ended. Home Af fairs Minis ter Peter Dutton twice declared his loy alty for the Prime Min ister before mounting the leader ship chal lenge vote by parliamentary Liberal Party mem bers. Mr Turnbull survived with a 48 to 35 vote, but even if no fur ther challenge oc curred, the Gov ern ment was drifting toward a hard deadline for Par liamen tary elections in May 2019, and the govern ing Lib eral- Na tional Party co ali tion was frac tured in dis con tent, fo cused on leg is la tion to re duce elec tric ity prices. Aus tralia remains on a path toward a change of leader ship, either at the national polls or another leader - ship chal lenge against Mr Turnbull. Or both. lubnru Aus tralia is presently the southern geopolitical an chor for West ern con tainment of the Peo ple’s Repub - lic of China (PRC), and is thus under massive di rect and indi rect pressure from Beijing. Both ma jor parties T. retsiniM emirP nailartsu emirP retsiniM were com pro mised by question able links with PRC figures, but opposition Labor — which could take the next elec tion — has demon strated a greater willing ness to kow-tow to Beijing. With out Aus tralia, the US faces grave diffi culty in re taining the Indo-Pacific as an area of vital com peti - tion with the PRC. Yet the US Trump Admin istra tion has not yet agreed to a new Ambas sa dor for Can - berra, and the Austra lian for eign pol icy es tablish ment re mains cool to Pres. Trump. US attempts to win greater influ ence with Indo nesia and have thus far been insuf fi cient to give Washing ton any strate gic

Al com fort, and do not help deter PRC strate gic expan sion into the South Pacific and South-East Asia. Geopolitically, Austra lia dom i nates the Indo-Pacific ocean linkage, but seems, itself, to be drifting po lit - ically and econom i cally, and increas ingly vulner a ble to PRC pressures. H

.MBCI )XM( repeekecaeP repeekecaeP )XM( .MBCI The US Back in Space: It’s Hap pening, But With out Real Stra te gic De bate The US is moving to “regain outer space” from a defense per spective (as well as in a non-mili tary context), but there has, sig nif icantly, been no US public policy de bate over goals and purpose. Much of the ratio nale is taken for granted, and largely relates to the fact that the People’s Repub lic of China (PRC) and Russia are moving their respec tive defense postures into space, but the real ity is that the militarization of space — which has been under way since the launch of the first V-2 rocket in 1944 — is some thing little discussed, and is papered over with delib er ate poli cies of lies, ambi gu ity, or silence by 11-MG most gov ern ments. Space as sets are crit i cal for com mu ni ca tions, sur veil lance, and nav i ga tion, with com - muni ca tions provid ing the criti cal link to infor ma tion domi nance and cyber weapons, quite apart from L. SU devil-trohs eh devil-trohs SU the passage through space of kinetic weapons. Pres. Don ald Trump’s proposal to Con gress on August 9, 2018, to create a US Space Force as a fourth full armed force may not yet be fully con ceived, but it is a belated start to catching up with Russia and the Peo ple’s Repub lic of China (PRC), which have, in many respects, over taken the US. [The Marine Corps is tech ni cally part of the Navy; the Coast Guard is often counted, but is not, except in time of war, un der De- T8 fense.] As with subma rine and anti-subma rine warfare, the US allowed it self to lose space strate gic com - peti tive ness in the post-Cold War period dur ing a time when the space sector (as with the sub ma rine sec - tor) was being opened to many other states, with even India posi tion ing itself to make signif i cant strides. Space is becom ing crowded, mili tarily and in ci vil ian terms, and in that field and other strate gic areas the “brief, but profoundly deep, nap” the US took to sleep off the Peace Div i dend of the post-Cold War period has passed and the US has awakened to a new world. The US armed services al ready have (along with the in telli gence com mu nity) well-es tablished rôles in space, and there will be much sort ing out to be done to cre ate a unified Space Force. But, again, the sepa rate space programs, which now touch all sec tors of de fense and intel li gence op era tions, have not formed an or ganic structure. Space Com mand will at- tempt to cre ate that. The Trump Administration pro posed that the De fense Depart ment would first estab lish a Space Devel - op ment Agency to de velop and field space capa bil i ties, which, as Avia tion Week noted, would be sim i lar to how the Air Force’s Rapid Capa bil i ties Office and the Defense Depart ment’s Strate gic Capa bil i ties Office have op er ated. Then, Defense would de velop a Space Op er ations Force to sup port the com batant com - mand ers. Third, De fense would cre ate the gover nance, ser vices, and sup port func tions of a new mil i tary service. Finally, De fense would cre ate US Space Com mand led by a four-star offi cer. The US had a Space Com mand from 1985 to 2002, but it was dis man tled after the terror ist attacks on the US of Septem ber 11, 2001, to make way for US North ern Com mand. Al most ev ery aspect of US mil i tary strategy touches on space, but the big cap i tal areas are in the inter - con tinen tal ballis tic mis sile (ICBM) realm cur rently un der US Air Force con trol. Subma rine-launched strate gic ballis tic mis sile de liv ery would pre sum ably stay with the US Navy. But discus sion of a Space Force to deal with the dis tant future must in clude the re ality that warfare is mov ing beyond nu clear weap ons, so could ter restri ally-launched nu clear weap ons re main with their pres ent forces and leave Space Force to deal with truly next-gen, inno va tive technol o gies and, more impor tantly, strate gies? The White House, which has in dicated (with Defense agreement) that it could have a Space Com mand ini tiated by late 2018, has in di cated con cern over the pos sible de vel op ment by Russia of pos sible new anti-satel lite weap ons. Rus sia in Oc to ber 2017 had con ducted tests of a “space appa ra tus inspec tor”, de - tected by US intel li gence to be a system which was ma neu ver ing and taking other un usual actions in space, with the sus picion — ac cord ing to Yleem Poblete, As sistant Sec. of State for Arms Con trol — that it could pres age an other round of anti-sat el lite weap ons ca pa bil ity. H

8, 2018 defense & foreign affairs strategic policy 3. The Tri umph of Belief By Gregory R. Cop ley, Ed itor 1 Red Sea Rising The Red Sea is emerging as a key global strategic dynamic thanks to a revolution begun in . The transformation moves back to a 3,000-year-old pattern, and is far from done.

t is now nec es sary for all ma jor trad ing states to be gin re vi - his tor i cally part of the Ethi o pian em pire sion of stra te gic concepts surround ing one of the most vi tal global be fore the in tro duc tion of the French trad ing post there at Obock — now a mil - Iar terial sea-lanes and the aters, the Red Sea-Suez. i tary base for the People’s Re pub lic of The rap idly-evolv ing events and res o lu tion of the Ethi o pia-Eritrea con- China — in 1862. chang ing stra te gic bal ance cen ter around flict (May 6, 1998 to June 18, 2000). Dr Through all of this, it is worth bear ing the new Ethio pian Gov ernment of Prime Abiy’s accep tance of the Algiers Agree- in mind that Ethio pia, even with out the Min is ter Ali, 41, who came ment over turned almost two decades of re in te gra tion of Eritrea and Dji bouti, has a pop u la tion of some 100-million, the to office on April 2, 2018. Ethio pian policy, and created an imme di - ate Eritrea-Ethi o pia rap proche ment, sur - sec ond largest in Af rica, and the fast- Much now depends on the polit i cal — growing economy on the Conti nent (al - and physi cal — survival of the Prime pris ing Eritrean Pres. Isayas Afewerke, Min is ter.2 who immediately embraced the news. beit building from a small base). The result of Dr Abiy’s appoint ment as Pres. Isayas be came a part ner in the Dr Abiy’s re forms al ready show the Prime Minis ter is that the stra te gic trans for ma tion, which prom ised a new promise of further economic growth and framework in the Horn of Africa and Red vi abil ity for Eritrea. An Eritrean dele ga - stabil ity, and it should be expected that Sea re gions has be gun to un dergo its tion was invited to Addis Ababa (it ar - this pro cess would soon receive the fillip most profound change since the coup rived on June 26, 2018, and included key of resto ra tion of the vital founda tion for against Emperor I of Ethi o- Isayas advi sor Yemane Gebreab), paving economic growth: the re turn of private pia in 1974, during the Cold War.3 the way for a euphoric visit by Dr Abiy to property owner ship, coupled with the The changes to the regional bal ance Asmara (July 8, 2018), followed by a visit time-con sum ing chal lenge of re form ing caused by the 1974 coup, as well as the by Isayas to Addis Ababa (July 14, 2018). the bu reaucracy. He will find consid er - im pact to the se curity of global trade It became clear with that se quence of able resis tance among many of the old so - routes, were lost in the global swirl of the events that Dr Abiy had taken of fice with cialists and marxists of the var i ous fac - Cold War. As a result, the im portance of a very detailed stra te gic vi sion for the res- tions of the Ethi opian Peo ple’s Revolut- that event is only now begin ning to be - to ra tion of Ethi o pian sov er eignty, which ionary Dem o cratic Front (EPRDF) Co - come evi dent as we see the rapid return to embraced its unity, identity, and prestige, ali tion Gov ern ment. a core stra te gic framework which had ex - and yet he was not even alive at the time At home, Dr Abiy, a Protestant Chris - tian and former Muslim, and of both isted for most of the past 2,500 years. of the 1974 coup. He was born on Au gust 15, 1976, two years after it. Oromo and Amhara parent age, has The long-term impact of that 1974 moved quickly to rein state the teach ing of coup is now start ing to be reversed, or re - By the be gin ning of August 2018, events in the Horn of Africa had been Ethio pian his tory, banned when the turned to “normalcy”. It was not sur pris - pro-So viet Dergue seized power in 1974, ing then that Dr Abiy said on June 1, moving with such rapid ity since the in- stalla tion of Dr Abiy that stra te gic reas - and to restore respect for Ethio pia’s three 2018: “We should build our na val force millen nia of Solomonic lin eage, tying the capac ity in the future.” 4 He had already sessments of the re gion now re quired re - view on a daily ba sis. Not only had Dr coun try to its roots in the un ion of King taken key ini tia tives with re gard to neigh - Solo mon of Israel and Queen Makeda of bor ing states in the re gion; this sig naled Abiy initi ated the end of 44 years of com- munist, neo-commu nist, and ethni cally- Saba (the Queen of Sheba). his in tention to re turn Ethio pia to its And Dr Abiy dramat i cally enhanced mar i time mis sion. based govern ment in Ethio pia, he had also be gun the pro cess of stra te gic rein te - this pro cess when, on July 26, 2018, on ar - It is sig nifi cant that he said this be fore rival for a private visit to the US, he his plan to restore Ethio pian links with gra tion with Eritrea — once part of the Ethi o pian Em pire — and the res to ra tion brought together the syn ods of the two Eritrea had be come known. It was only schismatic branches of the Ethio pian Or - on June 5, 2018, that he unveiled his plan of a Red Sea naval pres ence for Ethi opia. He also fanned the flames of closer in- tho dox Church. This was the most sig nif- for Ethi opia to accept the Algiers Agree- icant step for ward for Christian ity in the ment of June 18, 2000, which agreed to a te gra tion of Ethi o pia with Dji bouti, it self

1 Gregory Copley is also author of numerous studies, monographs, and lectures on Ethiopia, including the book, Ethiopia Reaches Her Hand Unto God: Imperial Ethiopia’s Unique Symbols, Structures and Rôle in the Modern World. Alexandria, Virginia, 1998: the International Strategic Studies Association. ISBN: 1-892998-00-9 (paperback), 1-892998-01-7 (hardcover). 2 “Massive, Rapid Change in Ethiopia Causes Push-Back and a Coup Attempt Against the New Abiy Government”, in Defense & Foreign Affairs Special Analysis, June 6, 2018. 3 “Abiy Transforms the Horn, and ’s Position” in Defense & Foreign Affairs Special Analysis, July 13, 2018. 4 “Ethiopia Moves to Re-Establish Itself as a Red Sea Power as it, and Other African States, Put Relations with the PRC in a New Light” in Defense & Foreign Affairs Special Analysis, June 21, 2018.

4. defense & foreign affairs strategic policy 8, 2018 Middle East and Africa for decades, re - across the Ethio pian border into Kenya. This will take some time to stabi lize, par - vers ing much of the frag menta tion and He re turned to Addis Ababa to be met by ticu larly as Prime Minis ter Abiy moves de cline of Chris tian pop u la tions. sev eral offi cial bands and stands of sup - heavily against polit i cally and fis cally The Church had been split since 1974, port ers and Church of fi cials at Bole In- corrupt former and current offi cials. when the revo lu tion ary Dergue (Com- terna tional Airport, and went imme di - It is sig nifi cant that the anti-cor rup - mittee) seized power, but par tic ularly ately — through streets lined with tion campaign on which the Gov ernment when the Patri arch, Abune Tewophilos, support ers — to the National Cathe dral, was now em barked was not, as in some who had served dur ing the latter reign of Holy Trin ity, where he met with Patri arch countries, merely a dis guise to sup press Em peror Haile Selassie I, was as sas si nated . po lit i cal op po si tion. The cor rup tion had by the Dergue in 1979. The Dergue then [In an emergency meet ing called on been real, per va sive, and a source of much installed Patri arch Abune Takla Hayma- July 30, 2018, the Ethio pian Or thodox of the public out rage. not, and later installed Pa tri arch Abune Tewahedo Church Holy Synod based in Ethio pian ana lyst and former World Merkorios, who went into exile in the US Addis Ababa lifted the ex com mu ni ca tion Bank ex ec u tive Dr Aklog Birara noted, in in 1991. He then was ac cepted as the Pa- of members of the Holy Synod based in a post on ECADForum.com on May 19, tri arch by the di as pora Ethi o pian Or tho - the US; the ex com mu ni ca tion had been 2018: “Ethio pian soci ety has been ‘bleed- dox com mu nity. in sti tuted soon af ter Pa tri arch Abune ing’ or hem or rhag ing from theft, graft, The Tigré Pop u lar Lib er a tion Front Merkorios left the coun try in 1991.] nep o tism, cor rup tion and il licit out flow (TPLF) — when it seized control of Ethi- But what was sig nifi cant was that dur - of mas sive fi nan cial and hu man cap i tal opia with the col lapse of the Dergue and ing the Prime Minis ter’s visit to Washing - for almost three decades.” He also noted its Soviet sponsors in 1991 — in stalled ton, DC (he also vis ited Minne ap olis and that the so lution for Ethi opia was not Patri arch , and then, with Los Angeles) he met with key Muslim more for eign aid, given that the pre vi ous his death in 2012, installed Patri arch Ethio pian leaders, partic u larly the Sultan Gov ern ment had al ready re ceived $30- Abune Mathias. of Afar, Sul tan Hanfare Alimirah, who, billion from the US alone, and that this Ethio pi ans, who had never in history like his late Father, had opposed the was, essen tially, stolen by the then- lead- left their coun try in large numbers, Dergue and remained a supporter of the ership. He praised the new Prime Min is- flooded out after 1974 to create a global monar chy. He also addressed a large gath- ter’s attempts to recover funds, prose cute di aspora, with as many as one-mil lion in er ing of Ethi opian Muslims. It was cor rupt offi cials, and to empower the North Amer ica. Most came to look to Pa- known that the Sultan of Afar’s fam ily Ethio pian economy. tri arch Abune Merkorios for spir itual and entou rage met with Crown Council Invig o rat ing the economy will take leader ship. Presi dent Prince Ermias dur ing the Prime some time, but it has clearly already be - On July 26, 2018, Dr Abiy, imme di ately Min is ter’s visit to Wash ing ton, DC. gun, and the opening of the old trade upon his ar rival in Wash ington, DC, What was clear was that Dr Abiy had links with Eritrea will yield tangi ble, brought church leaders from Ethio pia presided over not only the reuni fi ca tion short-term results. and the di aspora together as part of an of the Ethio pian Or tho dox Church — The pros e cu tion of cor rupt of fi cials, Ethio pian Ortho dox Tewahedo Church saying that it was impos sible to think of most (but not all) of whom are linked Uni fi ca tion and Rec on cil i a tion cer e- Ethio pia with out taking note of the Ethi - with the Tigré Popu lar Liber a tion Front mony. The two synods of the Church opian Ortho dox Tewahedo Church (to (TPLF) which controlled the Govern - agreed — appar ently with enthu si asm — which he does not belong) — but had ment since 1991, has already resulted in a to unite, restor ing Patri arch Abune also brought about a rap proche ment be- strenu ous push-back against Prime Min- Merkorios to nomi nal head of the tween Ortho dox Christians, Protestant ister Abiy. This has in cluded at least two Church, despite his now advanced age and Roman Catho lic Christians, and the as sas si na tion at tempts. And the re sponse and frailty, with the TPLF-installed Patri - distinct brand of Ethi opian Islam. It is when Dr Abiy be gan in ves ti gat ing cor - arch act ing, ef fec tively, as the chief exec u- diffi cult to overstate the unify ing impact rup tion sur round ing the con tro ver sial tive of the Church, and re taining his rank of Dr Abiy’s moves, not only with the Great Ethi o pian Re nais sance Dam and status. Church, but also on ending the conflict (GERD), on the Su danese border, was for This re uni fi ca tion was of stra te gic sig - with Eritrea, and moving against cor rup - its Chief En gi neer and overseer, Semeg- nifi cance in itself, quite apart from the tion and in freeing large numbers of po - new Bekele, to be shot dead in his Toyoto enor mous im pe tus it gave for the resto ra - lit i cal pris on ers. Landcruiser in Addis Ababa on July 26, tion of Ethi opian identity. And it is sig nif- It is also diffi cult to recall when a simi - 2018. A Colt handgun was found in his i cant, too, that the now-united Church lar pro cess of mass support — par tic u - vehi cle, but some reports indi cated that leader ship sees that a pillar of the Church larly on the scale of the Ethi opian, the ac tual single kill ing shot to the head is its link to the Solomonic line rep re - Eritrean, and Djiboutian rally — has oc - came from a sniper, which would point to sented by Ethi o pia’s Im pe rial dy nasty. curred in Africa, uni fy ing not just a coun - the TPLF’s “private spe cial forces” group, The Church leaders, together in Washing - try, but a re gion. The ab so lute and over - the Agazi. ton, DC, for the Prime Min ister’s visit, rid ing mes sage of Dr Abiy — which won The dam it self has been contro ver sial, met with the Pres i dent of the Crown the greatest pub lic response — has been and pos sibly threaten ing to the Blue Nile Coun cil of Ethi o pia, Prince Ermias Sahle- to stress national unity over ethnic and wa ter flows, af fect ing Egyp tian wa ter ac - Selassie Haile-Selassie, grand son of Em - reli gious divi sions, and to stress that the cess (partic u larly in the cur rent period of peror Haile Selassie, and affirmed their sov er eignty of Ethi o pia was par a mount. exten sive, El Niño-cycle drought. But that mutual good will to work toward improv - the pro ject was rid dled with in ef fi cien cies ing Ethi o pian unity and de vel op ment. The Domestic Impact (it is only now half-completed) and cor - Prime Minis ter Abiy took Patri arch here has been disrup tion to a rup tion as the flagship pro ject in the Abune Merkorios back to Addis Ababa pattern of national manage ment coun try made it a pri mary fo cus for the with him when he re turned on Au gust 1, which had evolved over the 44 new Gov ern ment. 2018, ending the Abune’s 27-year exile T years since the Dergue’s coup. What is clear, though, is that the which be gan when he walked alone pushback against the Prime Min ister is

8, 2018 defense & foreign affairs strategic policy 5. not over by a long shot, and there is a race hid ing in ex ile. Prin ci pal among these is ship to acknowl edge any of Ethi opia’s to see whether Dr Abiy can neutral ize Mengistu Haile Mariam, who led the pre-“revo lu tion ary” history. some of the TPLF com mu nist hard lin ers Dergue’s coup and ran the country from The re al ity was that the “rev o lu tion ar - — like one of its found ers, its key ideo- 1974 until 1991, when he fled into exile in ies” had not come to power through rev o - logue and the god fa ther of the Agazi, Zim ba bwe with very sub stan tial sto len lution, but through a putsch, and events Sebhat Nega, 84, who recently with drew funds and as sets be long ing both to the after 1974, such as the banning of teach- from Addis Ababa to return to Tigré — nation and to Emperor Haile Selassie. ing Ethi opian his tory, could not erase the be fore the for mer appa rat chiks , with their One of the rare shock waves which was sense in Ethio pia that it had sev eral mil - bil lions of dollars in resources, can neu - sent through the Ethi opian com munity lennia of unique heri tage. Dr Abiy has tral ize the Prime Min ister. since Dr Abiy took office has been the very consciously tapped into that. The TPLF imme di ately mobi lized its meet ing which took place in Harare, US-trained force of Liyu re gional para- Zim babwe, on August 1, 2018, be tween Impact on the PRC mili tary force in Somali State (of Ethi o- im me di ate past Prime Min is ter of Ethi o- he wave of Ethio pian nation al ist pia) and be gan an at tempted upris ing — pia Hailemariam Dessalegn and Men- senti ment which has risen since un der Tigrean gen erals — in three lo cales gistu. Hailemariam was in Zim babwe as Prime Min is ter Abiy took of fice in neigh bor ing Oromia State’s East Ha- an elec tion observer, but his beaming T harghe Zone on August 12-13, 2018. photo graph alongside Mengistu belied was seen in part as a push-back There were at least 40 deaths, but Ethi o- the fact that Mengistu had been tried in against the strong domi nance over the pian Federal Forces contained the Liyu, absen tia in Ethi opia in 2007 — under the Ethio pian economy by the People’s Re- which report edly has more than 30,000 Gov ern ment which Hailemariam sub se - pub lic of China (PRC) as much as a combat ants. The Liyu made a stand a quently led — and was sen tenced to life in push-back against the 44 years of sup - week ear lier, when their for mer leader prison for geno cide. Thus, Mengistu re- pres sive gover nance since 1974. How- and presi dent of the Somali re gional mains a fugi tive from Ethio pian justice, ever, the “Abiy Revo lu tion” in many state, Abdi Mohamoud Omar, was forced and it would be diffi cult for Dr Abiy to se- ways works posi tively for the PRC. to resign amid a standoff be tween re - lec tively pur sue TPLF trans gres sors with - Indeed, by the time Prime Min ister gional and Federal forces. out also harden ing the Gov ernment’s de- Abiy had come into office, inher it ing a In the mean time, however, the new termi nation to seek justice for the par lous eco nomic con di tion, the PRC Gov ernment has be gun the pro cess of Dergue’s vic tims. had already be gun to reduce its finan cial privat iz ing parts of State-owned enter - Be hind all of this is the domi nant core ties to Ethio pia be cause of concerns over prises, such as Ethio Telecom, Ethi opian of Ethi o pian iden tity, the Solomonic foreign exchange short ages and the na - Airlines, Ethi opian Power, and the Mar i - Crown, which had sur vived 2,500 years, tional debt. That did not mean that the time Transport and Logis tics Corpo ra - and which the Mengistu coup had at- PRC had in any way dimin ished its desire tion, but he is still fight ing decades of en - tempted to usurp through the reg i cide of for stra te gic links with Ethio pia, only that trenched so cialist thinking within his 1974. The Solomonic line had under gone it did not know how to man age its eco- own party, the Oromo Peoples’ Demo - in ter regna in the past, some longer than nomic risks there. cratic Or ga ni za tion (OPDO), and the co - the 44 years of the pres ent in ter regnum. Beijing had worked to conduct eco- alition of which it is part — and which, as But the popu lar ity of the Crown never nomic al li ances with Ethi o pia, Eritrea, Prime Minis ter, he leads — the EPRDF. dissi pated, even among Dr Abiy’s gener a - and Dji bouti when these states were sep a - Despite this, it is clear to the Prime Min is- tion, born af ter the coup. rated by con sid er able mu tual hos til ity ter him self that moti vat ing the private A paral lel is evi dent with the re turn to (be tween Ethio pia and Eritrea, and be - sec tor and for eign di rect in vest ment nation al ism of Russia, where the popu - tween Djibouti and Eritrea). Now, PRC- (FDI) is key to giving the Ethi opian econ- lar ity of the Romanov Crown and even fi nanced in fra struc ture could in te grate omy even greater levels of growth. earlier Boyar tradi tions, re-emerged as a all three re gional nations, and trade As well, though, the sense of sup port driv ing force in Pres. Vladimir Putin’s would increase to and from Ethio pia for him across the ethnic and reli gious di- resto ra tion of Russian identity, a century from sev eral ports, includ ing Assab and vides in Ethi opia has been profound, not after the 1917 putsch against the Crown. Massawa, controlled by Eritrea, which just from the Christian groups, but also The Crown in Ethio pia and Russia repre - had been closed for more than two de- from the Muslim and ethnic Somali Ethi- sented le git i macy and unity. cades to Ethio pian traders. In the short opi ans. As a result, Dr Abiy is be ing chan- Sig nif i cantly, the Ethi o pian Crown in term, however, Djibouti fears losing some neled by circum stances to respond to the exile — at first repre sented by Em peror of its Ethio pian traf fic. flood he has unleashed which demands Haile Selassie’s heir, Crown Prince Asfa- What has emerged is that the PRC may the res to ra tion of Ethi o pian his tor i cal Wossen (who was named in exile as Em- have less ab so lute in fluence over the new identity. And this will include the resto ra - peror Amha Selassie I), and then by the Ethio pian Gov ernment, but it would en- tion of indi vid ual dignity, a pro cess Crown Council he re-estab lished — had joy a share of a larger and expand ing mar - which has already meant the re lease of consis tently worked from the dias pora to ket which was less reli ant on Beijing. And the thousands of polit i cal prison ers, peo- high light a sense of Ethi opian tra dition there is no sugges tion that the PRC would ple who had opposed the TPLF. during the inter reg num. lose its abil ity to domi nate a strate gic in - It will also lead ulti mately to the res to- The Crown Council maintained the frastruc ture network, linking its Afri can ra tion of private prop erty, which in turn prac tice of cel e brat ing the Vic tory of trade through Ethio pian rail, road, and will drive FDI. , to commem o rate the vic tory of pipeline links to Red Sea ports. But if Dr Abiy is to suc ceed in prose - Em peror Menelik II over the in vading But it would expect that there should cuting crimi nal behav ior by the former Ital ians in 1896 at Adwa, in Tigré prov - be more compe ti tion from other major TPLF offi cials, he cannot avoid address - ince. And during recent years such cele - in ves tors — par tic u larly as the Ethi o pian ing the still-out stand ing crim i nal ac tiv i - brations be gan to resume again inside economy and mar ket contin ues to firm ties — includ ing geno cide — by the for- Ethi opia, despite the re fusal of the Dergue — such as the Eu ropean Un ion, the UK, mer Dergue offi cials who have been and later the TPLF leader - and the US.

6. defense & foreign affairs strategic policy 8, 2018 Impact on the US Pres. al-Sisi had come into office on Muslim Brother hood Govern ment of June 8, 2014, deter mined to build a pos i - thiopian re la tions Pres. Mo ham med Morsi. S-E have tive re la tion ship with Ethi o pia, the other De spite the con tin ued Egyp tian wari - begun a resur gence and warmth major Afri can anchor of the Red Sea- ness of ever again becom ing totally de- Uun seen for a de cade. Bilat eral Suez sea line of commu ni ca tion (SLOC). pendent stra te gi cally on the US, the con- rela tions had soured dramat i - But, un der the TPLF-dom i nated Gov ern- tin ued im prove ment in US-Egyp tian bi- cally at a strate gic, intel li gence, and mil i - ment in Ethio pia at that time, Pres. al-Sisi lateral rela tions means that a US-Egyp - tary level during the years of the US could get no clarity or co op era tion over tian-Is raeli-Ethi o pian co or di na tion was Barack Obama Ad min is tra tion (2009- the GERD project, which most Egyptian now pos sible. Jordan could also be in - 17), but partic u larly since the May 2015 me dia had portrayed as an exis tential cluded in that framework, if it managed visit by US Sec re tary of State John Kerry threat to Egypt’s ac cess to Nile waters. to survive its present unrest with out hav - to Djibouti 5 and the July 2015 visit to Dr Abiy’s for mal visit to Cairo on June ing become subject to endur ing influ ence Addis Ababa by Pres. Obama, where he 9-11, 2018, although not his first meet ing from Tur key (which is currently push ing point edly of fended Ethio pi ans. with Pres. al-Sisi, may have proven deci - its writ upon the Jor da ni ans and Hash- sive, es pe cially in light of the heightened emites). The US also has been improv ing The trans fer of power — dic tated by Egyp tian concerns over wa ter caused by rela tions with Sudan, complet ing much mass pop u lar pro tests, largely spear - the cur rent drought. Pres. al-Sisi re leased of the Eastern Medi ter ra nean to Indian headed by Oromo and Amhara peo ples to Prime Min ister Abiy a num ber of Ethi- Ocean linkage, al beit leav ing the Ara bian — from the TPLF-con trolled EPRDF to opian pris oners, who the PM took with Penin sula, a pro cess which offered pros- Dr Abiy was seen in Washing ton as a him back to Addis Ababa on June 11, pects for, fi nally, the recog nition of the chance to reverse the schism be tween 2018. And, in a speech be fore leaving Repub lic of Somali land and the strate gic Wash ington and Addis Ababa, and US Cairo, thanking the Egyptian Presi dent, port of Berbera to be in cor po rated into Acting Assis tant Secre tary of State Don- Dr Abiy said: “I swear to God, we will the matrix. ald Yamamoto moved quickly to re-kin - never harm you.” This was specif ically in This gives Washing ton the hope of re - dle bi lateral rela tions. He ac tively, but dis - ref er ence to the flow of Nile wa ters. Pres. vived influ ence, albeit in a new and less creetly, en gaged in shuttle di plo macy al-Sisi said: “We have come a long way in dom i nant manner, in the re gion. Much of be tween Addis Ababa and Asmara to en- build ing con fi dence and strength en ing this was dis cussed dur ing late 2016 Wash - sure that Dr Abiy’s ini tia tive to re store bi lat eral co op er a tion”, to which Dr Abiy ington, DC, confer ence on the Rise of the Ethi o pia-Eritrea re la tions could gain noted: “We will take care of the Nile and RedMed (Red Sea/Med i ter ra nean) con - traction, and this was report edly wel - we will preserve your share and we will ducted by the Inter na tional Strate gic comed by both sides. work to in crease this quota and Presi dent Studies Asso ci a tion (ISSA); the Gusau In- Amb. Yamamoto, a career diplo mat, Sisi and I will work on this.” stitute of Kaduna, Ni geria; and the Water had ear lier been US Ambas sador to Ethi- In many ways this also releases Egypt Ini tia tive for Af rica, of Ethi o pian Crown opia, and was, dur ing July 2018, named as from its covert subver sion cam paign Coun cil Pres i dent Prince Ermias Sahle- Ambas sa dor-des ig nate to Soma lia, where against Ethio pia, which had largely been Selassie Haile-Selassie. The results and he clearly could also back stop the chang - conducted through, and with the co op er- additional anal ysis on this emerg ing ing Horn of Africa dy namic now centered ation of, Eritrea. Now Eritrea is reunited framework, which advo cated the creation on Ethi opia. There has been no clear indi - with Ethio pia, cutting Egypt’s options for of a clearing house for intel ligence on the ca tion as to where the US will go in pur- such ac tivi ties. Thus, the growing rap - re gion, was pub lished as Rise of the suing this opening, although the oppor - proche ment be tween Egypt and Ethi o pia RedMed: How the Medi ter ra nean-Red Sea tunity is unique. Nonethe less, the bilat- augurs well for a more unified approach Nexus is Resum ing its Strate gic Central ity .6 eral re la tionship will clearly be less pa ter - to the manage ment of the Red Sea SLOC. This study has proven prescient on the nal is tic than it was in the past, just as the This will be crit ical for both “great transfor ma tion of the strate gic theater. re vived (under the US Donald Trump powers of the Red Sea”, given the collapse Ad min is tra tion) US-Egypt re la tion ship into in ternal disputes in both Yemen and is less pater nal is tic than it was before the Impact on the Middle East Saudi Arabia, and the conse quent surge he Kingdom of Saudi Ara bia, de - Washing ton-Cairo rift which oc curred of stra te gic in terest in the Red Sea by Iran un der the Obama Ad min is tra tion. and Tur key (and by powers such as the spite being embroiled in inter nal PRC). Essen tially, the secu rity for a stable Tcri sis dur ing 2017-18, played a Impact on Egypt Red Sea is now in the hands of Egypt, key rôle, along with the US and he Ethiopia-Egypt rela tion ship Ethi opia (working with Eritrea, and pos- the United Arab Emirates, in bringing im me di ately im proved with the si bly un der a new con fed er a tion of Ethi o - Ethi opia and Eritrea to gether. Tas sump tion of of fice of Dr Abiy. pia, Eritrea, and Djibouti), and Israel. The fact that Saudi Crown Prince Mo - It is not insig nifi cant that Dr Abiy and This is bol stered by the re-start by the hammed bin Salman bin ‘Abd al-’Aziz al Egyp tian Pres. Ab dul Fatah al-Sisi have US Trump Admin is tra tion in Septem ber Sa’ud took time to work with Dr Abiy in each gained enormous trac tion be cause 2017 of the bien nial joint Bright Star mil- the Kingdom on May 18, 2018, during the they have each stressed the par a mount i tary ex er cises be tween US and Egyp tian Prince’s recov ery from the fight ing which im portance of the sover eignty and well- forces which had been can celed by US occurred in Riyadh on April 21, 2018, spoke to the commit ment the Saudis had be ing of their respec tive na tion-states. Pres. Obama in 2013 because of the 7 They saw in each other kindred spir its. Egyp tians’ re jec tion of the US-backed for the transfor ma tion of Ethio pia.

5 Sec. Kerry, while in Djibouti, essentially threatened the continued leadership of Djibouti Pres. Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, calling him corrupt and saying that the US would not tolerate a further term in office for the President. As a result, Pres. Guelleh immediately called PRC Pres. Xi Jinping, inviting the PRC to build a military base in Djibouti, and offered the US Special Forces base at Obock as the location. 6 Copley, Gregory R., et al: Rise of the RedMed: How the Mediterranean-Red Sea Nexus is Resuming its Strategic Centrality. Alexandria, Virginia, 2016: The International Strategic Studies Association. ISBN: 978-1-892998-24-8. 7 See: “Saudi Arabia’s Fortunes Reach a Critical Juncture”, in Defense & Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy, 5/6-2018.

8, 2018 defense & foreign affairs strategic policy 7. Dr Abiy’s arrival on the scene seemed present, some 90 percent of the volume Red Sea/Horn, even as they strive to find to have trans formed the Saudi view of the of inter na tional trade is carried by sea, alter nate ways around the PRC’s “check Horn, and of Ethio pia and Eritrea. The and the BRI would take a pro portion of mate” blockade of the new bases on the question now, however, is to what de gree that and move it by rail and road across Nine-Dash Line islands of the South Saudi Arabia’s inter nal challenges would the Eurasian landmass, linking with China Sea. per mit its full engage ment with Ethio pia mainly overland logis ti cal lines across in the coming year or two. Riyadh must the Middle East and Af rica. In Conclusion ensure that Ethio pia is a major re gional So the changes emerging from player, given the impact which the Afri - By 2016, some 20 percent of the vol - Ethio pia are of global signif i cance, and can lit to ral — So ma lia, Soma li land, Dji - ume and value of world trade was be ing new as pects are emerg ing daily. bouti, Ethio pia, and Eritrea — could now run through the Suez Canal and Red Sea. At some stage soon, Dr Abiy will need ex ert on sta bi liz ing the Ye men dis pute. That made that partic u lar SLOC vital in to be able to insti tution al ize his changes, The out come of the Yemen conflict is global terms, but it is equally true that the embody ing them in new bureau cratic unknown at this stage, although clearly stabil ity of the north-western Indian prac tices and insti tutions. In this re gard, Yemen “cannot be put back together Ocean (which in cludes the Red Sea as the rein te gra tion of the Ethio pian Ortho - again”, à la Humpty Dumpty, and new bi- well as the Persian Gulf) relies heavily on dox Church should not be under-es ti - lat eral frame works will need to emerge to the Red Sea lit toral states, and Ethi opia mated. This will drive much of the polit i - cope with that real ity (not yet acknowl - has now re vived as a ma jor fac tor in that, cal ethos of Ethi opia going for ward, and edged by Saudi Arabia or the United Arab and, for exam ple, in such is sues as pro - it will also strengthen neigh bor ing Emirates). But Ethio pia and Oman, for viding the prospect for the economic re - Eritrea, which has an Or tho dox Chris tian exam ple, have a natu ral histor i cal rapport vival of the entire Horn of Africa, includ - Govern ment but a Muslim major ity pop- which may prove inter esting. And Oman ing So ma lia, Soma li land, and Kenya u la tion. (which is vi tally affected by the sta bility and Iran have a sepa rate discreet rap port 8 He will need to broaden the in sti tu- which may prove sig nifi cant in the Red of Soma lia). tions, and restore a sense of legit i macy to Sea context, given Iran’s im per ative to But if the PRC’s BRI aims at linking the them, a legit i macy which had been nota - great new arte rial infra struc ture of Africa seek to encir cle the Arabian Penin sula. with that of Eur asia, it is de pendent on bly absent dur ing the past 44 years. In all of this, the UAE has made itself sea link ages from the Red Sea at least to The Ethi o pian mil i tary has al ready be - an im por tant player, and contin ues to oc- Gwadar, Paki stan; or from Lamu, Kenya, gun to un dergo a change of leader ship cupy key areas, such as the Yemeni island up to Gwadar. By such a short, coast-hug- and style, moving it away from a of Socotra, guard ian of the Red Sea/In - ging mari time logis ti cal framework does Tigrean-dom i nated force to a bal anced dian Ocean SLOC. And the UAE has key Beijing hope to avoid the ex posed threat na tional force, and the same has be gun in inter ests in Djibouti (where it lost its port of na val inter dic tion to vital trade which the intel li gence commu nity. man age ment contract to the PRC) and could occur from the Indian Navy, the Dr Abiy’s seem ing side-step into the Berbera (Somali land), the lat ter be ing a Royal Austra lian Navy, or other major masses of the Ethio pian dias pora in crit i cal lo gis ti cal point for Ethi o pia. power fleets which find safe oper a tion in North Amer ica dur ing late July 2018 was The Greater Ethi opia which Prime the Indian Ocean. Nonethe less, even the part of this pro cess. Abiy knows the Min is ter Abiy is recon struct ing is central Red Sea/north-west ern In dian Ocean sea wealth amassed by the di aspora, and the to a matrix which involves the Af ri can lit- routes are vulner a ble. fact that it contrib utes more than $4-bil - toral states of Egypt, Su dan, Djibouti, The result is that the PRC’s criti cal area lion a year to the Ethi opian economy al- Somali land and Soma lia, and the Ara - of naval projec tion must be geared to - ready. He now looks to it for capi tal as bian, Persian Gulf, and Levantine states, ward protect ing the short mar itime links well as for Ethi o pia-centric en tre pre neur - plus Tur key. There are, within this highly between Africa and Gwadar (at the very ship which has learned new skills and diverse framework, a vari ety of rela tion - least; more for China-related ship ping work ethics from the inter na tional ex po - ships which al low for an inter ac tive tab - which must cross the Indian Ocean). It is sure of the past four decades. Already, leau not seen be fore in mod ern his tory. no coin ci dence that the PRC, then, has Ethio pi ans are begin ning the path back to The Rise of the RedMed, in late 2016, devoted consid er able mili tary diplo macy the land they or their parents left as a re- dis cussed the emergence of a new mar ket to building rela tions with Egypt, Dji- sult of the marxist coups and gover nance area within this framework which could bouti, Eritrea, and Ethio pia, as well as to which had stolen their identity. be highly sig nifi cant in global terms over Saudi Ara bia and Iran. It is ironic that the sup pos edly nation al - the coming de cade. That was depend ent ist assump tion of power in Tur key by on the poten tially large mar kets of Egypt It is axi om atic then, given that so much Erdoðan of the world’s trade flows through the Reçep Tayyip over the past de- and Ethio pia coming to full vital ity. Red Sea/Suez SLOC (and so much more cade has caused a consis tent out flow of fi - For all of these re gional actors, the re al - orig inates or trav els within the Indian nan cial and in tel lec tual cap i tal from Tur - ity is that Ethi opia has emerged from 44 Ocean ba sin), that all states depend ent on key, whereas a decid edly na tion al ist revi- years of in ter nal pre oc cu pa tion to be - Indian Ocean mar itime trade must move val by Prime Min ister Abiy in Ethio pia coming, again, a re gional strate gic factor. to achieve a measure of in fluence with the has prompted a surge in national unity “new” Ethi o pian “com mon wealth” which and economic and stra te gic promise. Impact on the Indian Ocean is emerg ing be tween Ethi o pia, Eritrea, It could be ar gued that Egypt’s Pres. Littoral States and Dji bouti. Certainly, states such as Ja - Sisi has also re vived Egypt’s for tunes by leading an em bracing form of national he People’s Re pub lic of China’s pan, the Repub lic of Korea, the Re pub lic of China (ROC: Taiwan), and the Philip - unity, which — like Abiy’s — promotes Belt and Road Initia tive (BRI) in- national val ues rather than in ternally di - tends to trans form much of how pines also must take increas ing cog ni - H T zance of the emerg ing new balance in the visive ethnic or reli gious values. the world’s trade is con ducted. At 8 See, particularly, Copley, Gregory R.; Pickford, Andrew: On Such a Full Sea: Australia’s Options in a Changing Indian Ocean Region. Glen Waverley, Victoria, Australia, 2009: Sid Harta Publishers Pty. Ltd.

8. defense & foreign affairs strategic policy 8, 2018 The Triumph of Belief By Dr Assad Homayoun, Gregory Copley, and Yossef Bodansky Persian Cæsar? Not just Iran’s Cæsar abroad, Major-General Qasem Soleimani is finally being recognized as Iran’s “Man on Horseback”.

atch for Maj.-Gen. Qasem Soleimani, Commander of Equally appo site would be a compar i- the Qods Force (Jaysh al-Qods or Failaq al-Qods) of the son of Gen. Soleimani with Iran’s Gen. Reza Shah, who moved from mil i tary WIra nian Rev o lu tion ary Guard Corps (Pasdaran), to be - suc cess against the ene mies of the Qajar come in creas ingly central to the trans for ma tion of Iran’s Crown to the post of Minis ter of War po lit i cal lead ership over the coming year or two. (1921-25) to 20th Prime Min is ter of Iran (1923-25); thence to be come Shah of Many fac tors point to the prospect Iran’s foreign combat oper a tions and has Iran and the founder of the Pahlavi Dy- that he may be on, liter ally, an almost in- courted no to ri ety in the ex ter nal sphere, nasty on De cember 15, 1925. All four — evi ta ble trajec tory to becom ing Iran’s he has been care ful to avoid specu lation Cæsar, Na po leon, Pres. al-Sisi, and Reza next leader in the classi cal Persian tra di - as to a poten tial leader ship rôle within Shah — moved from trusted mil i tary tion. This could lead — in a pro cess Iran or with re gard to national poli tics. posi tions as servants of their admin is tra - masked as “busi ness as usual”— to the However, it is now clear that he is mov - tions through to the grant ing to them of over turn ing of the pres ent in ter reg num ing to ward center stage in do mestic lead - gov ernance posts, which then led them of the clerics, who have ruled since the ership consid er ation — or, actu ally, is to seamlessly as sume command of their 1979 over throw of Shah Mohammad be ing moved to it — if only be cause of nations.2 Reza Pahlavi, and re turn Iran to a more the changing polit i cal dynamic of poli - Events, as much as ambi tion, may have balanced, nationalist path. tics, economics, and social patterns in de ter mined the tra jec tory of Soleimani’s The pattern is very much in line with Iran. destiny, just as events conspired to give the galva niz ing trend of many soci et ies It would be ap posite to paral lel the un - Na po leon, al-Sisi, and Reza Shah a path around the world, but par tic u larly in the folding scenario around Soleimani with which would be dif fi cult to re ject. It is Middle East, around histor i cal identi ties the rise of Napo leon Bonaparte from clear that, above all else, Gen. Soleimani and their geopolitical sover eignty. This is char is matic gen eral, be com ing the fa - has a pri mary mis sion which accords becom ing evi dent, for exam ple, in the vor ite war rior pro tec tor of the French with the wishes of vir tu ally all Irani ans: Arab Middle East, with the re newed em - Revo lu tion and hero of France’s mili tary the re tention of the national sover eignty phasis at a grass roots level on the im por - cam paigns abroad, to his as sumption of and territory of Iran. tance of Qaum: the fam ily-clan-tribe office as First Consul in 1799, then First Most exter nal appre ci a tions of Maj.- frame work not only of peo ples but also Con sul for Life (1802), and fi nally Em - Gen. Soleimani focus on his de votion to of the land with which they identify. 1 peror in 1804. Or even the rise of Abdul Shi’a Islam and his support for the cler i - It is also evi dent in the early re turn by Fatah Saeed Hussein Khalil al-Sisi from cal leader ship, partic u larly Supreme Rus sia and the People’s Re pub lic of Direc tor of Mili tary Intel li gence of Leader Aya tol lah Ali Hoseini-Kham- China (PRC) to nation al ism in the Egypt (2010-2012) to Commander in ene‘i, 79. That de votion seems un deni - 1990s, and by Egypt and Ethi opia at Chief of the Armed Forces and Minis ter able, and it has earned him the trust of present. of De fense (2012-14), to Dep uty Prime the Su preme Leader, even more now that In Iran, the re turn to Persian values Minis ter (2013-14), and then, to the the Ayatol lah is in failing health (prostate and identity has been building, too, for Presi dency of Egypt in 2014. Or Julius can cer and per haps other ail ments),3 the past de cade or so. Maj.-Gen. Solei- Cæsar’s rise as a Roman gen eral outside and anxious to find a protec tor for a mani has already built a high profile for of Rome, to his seizure of power by tak- planned future rôle for his son, Sayyed several years in Iran’s “near-abroad”, ing his troops back to Rome, across the Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei, 48. where he has been hailed as an elec tri fy - Rubicon River on Janu ary 10, 49 BCE, Soleimani is very close to Ayatol lah ing leader, push ing for Iran’s geopolitical when a hostile Sen ate demanded his re - Khamene‘i’s pow er ful son, Mojtaba, the interests. turn to Rome (without his troops), and de facto chief of Iran’s for eign intel li- Signif i cantly, although Maj.-Gen. Sol- his subsequent creation of the Roman gence and se curity forces. In mid-June eimani has shown vis i ble leader ship in Empire. 2018, they worked together closely in 1 See, Bodansky, Yossef: “Transformation in Much of the Middle East Now Seems Inevitable, Substantial, and Imminent”, in Defense & Foreign Affairs Special Analysis, June 6, 2018. 2 Sultan Ahmad Shah Qajar, from exile in Europe after the coup, said, in essence: “I brought Reza Khan into the Government to protect me from Seyyed Zia’eddin Tabatabaee [Prime Minister, 1921], and then it was Reza Khan who forced me out.” Reza Khan Mirpanj, who later became Reza Shah Pahlavi, had assisted Zia’eddin Tabatabaee to stage a coup d’etat against Ahmad Shah, who was to die in exile in France, at age 32, in Neuilly-sur-Seine, Paris, on February 21, 1930. 3 “Iranian Leadership Aspirants Move as ‘Supreme Leader’ Ayatollah Ali Hoseini-Khamene‘i Declines”, in Defense & Foreign Affairs Special Analysis, April 14, 2017.

8, 2018 defense & foreign affairs strategic policy 9. Bagh dad (along with the Iranian Am- to find a way out ... If it’s war, so it be, but bassa dor, Brig.-Gen. Iraj Masjedi, who is quick; if it’s reaching an agreement, so it Soleimani’s deputy) in an effort to con - be, but quick; if it’s regime change, so it soli date a pro-Iran all-Shi’ite coali tion be, but quick.”7 Gov ern ment for Iraq.4 Mojtaba was very What, then, is the rôle, if any, of the US im pressed and sub se quently was consid - — and partic u larly US Presi dent Donald ered a friend/suppo rter of Soleimani. Trump’s re jec tion of the 2015 “nuclear De fense & For eign Af fairs Stra te gic Pol- pact” with Iran and its promise to end icy noted in its 1-2018 edi tion: sanctions against Iran — in the rise of The obvi ous cæsar in the wings, Soleimani and the rapidly approach ing and well out side the Rubicon, is time of de cisions in Iran? Maj.-Gen. Qasem Soleimani, Com- There seemed lit tle doubt that the ini - mander of Islamic Revo lu tion ary tial re jec tion by Pres. Trump when he as - Guard Corps’ Qods Force. He has sumed office in Jan u ary 2017 of the July demon strated real dyna mism and 14, 2015, Joint Com pre hensive Plan of success fighting for Iranian inter ests Ac tion (JCPOA) which Iran signed with out side of Iran’s for mal bor ders the P5+1 (the five perma nent members (just as Jul ius Cæsar did, with his le - of the UN Se curity Council, plus Ger - gions abroad from Rome, re turn ing many), was the opening round of Pres. to It aly at the Rubicon River, in 49 Trump’s nego ti a tions with the Iranian BCE). Clearly, the ambi tious Gen. lead er ship. His ne go ti at ing style, as dem - Soleimani has no de sire at this stage onstrated with DPRK leader Kim to break cover and promote any Jong-Un and with the Eu ropean Union agenda for his ad vance ment; in fact, on tariffs, has been to galva nize a new he may gen u inely es chew such a nego ti at ing posi tion by heavy threats. proposal. This dra matic build-up of threats As De fense & For eign Af fairs noted on worked, as well, with Iran, causing the April 14, 2017: How much atten tion Iranian leader ship and popu la tion to would the leader ship of the Iranian Rev - galva nize around nation al ist poli cies olu tion ary Guard Corps (the Pasdaran), and lead ers. This initially hurt Pres. Hoj- Gen. Soleimani’s actions and statements, the sig nifi cant combat force, pay to en - jat ol-Eslam Hasan Fereidun Rouhani, although often colored by Islamic and sure national stabil ity in the event that a and appeared to allow the conser va tive Islamist sen ti ments, have been pro- vacuum was perceived to emerge? That cler ics to rally, partic u larly as hopes for foundly tra ditional in the pursuit of Per- re port noted: “It seems proba ble that the the economy seemed to fade with the sian/Iranian sover eignty and territorial Pasdaran itself could pro duce a strong contin u a tion of US sanctions. But the integrity. leader ship figure to fill such a vacuum in pressures on the econ omy became seen US Pres. Trump on July 30, 2018, then the way that Gen. Reza Khan did in 1921, in the coun try as the fault of the cler i cal indicated that he would meet Iranian remov ing the pro-British Govern ment leader ship rather than be ing solely leaders with “no precon di tions” and of Iran. [He then went on to serve, in caused by US sanctions. “any time they want”, adding “I’d meet 1923, as Prime Minis ter, un til the Con - That then moved posi tive atten tion to with anybody. I be lieve in meet ings.” stitu ent Assem bly appointed him as Maj.-Gen. Soleimani, who has ex empli - This was clas sic Trump ne go ti at ing style: Shah, in 1925, to re place the last Qajar fied the Iranian — indeed, tra ditional massive threats exchanged as an opening Shah, Ahmad Shah Qajar. That began Per sian — iden ti fi ca tion with its sov er - artil lery bombard ment, satis fy ing honor the Pahlavi Dynasty.]” 5 eignty and the de fense of it against for - on both sides, allow ing both the ability The speed of Soleimani’s move to ward eign threats. This posi tion — the de fense to then open talks on the basis that there a central rôle — albeit one which may of Persian sov er eignty — shows a were, liter ally, “no precon di tions”. initially be with a lower profile — in in- marked dif fer ence from the pan-Islamist It is highly prob a ble that Trump could ternal affairs is being de termined by the nature, anti-Persianness of the cler i cal offer Iran conces sions which would be of po lit i cal, eco nomic, stra te gic, and en vi - govern ment when it came to power in greater bene fit than the JCPOA did. The ronmen tal crises which are gather ing 1979. Grad u ally, even the cler ics have ques tion would be, then, who would and mounting in inten sity over Iran. The “be come Per sian”, but Soleimani even bene fit within the Iranian power struc- cur rent drought, the worst in mod ern more so. ture, and who the US would wish to see Iranian history, has exac er bated all the The bravura of Soleimani’s com- bene fit. Given the fear, lit erally, that Gen. other problems, and “the peo ple are in ments, partic u larly with re gard to Is rael Soleimani gener at es among US mili tary the streets” in liter ally every Iranian city.6 and the US, ob scures the fact that he is and po lit i cal ob serv ers, it is prob a ble The threat to the cler i cal lead ership has seen inside Iran as the most impor tant that Washing ton — and partic u larly the be come palpa ble, to the point where Ira- de fender of Iranian sov er eignty. It posi - US State Dept. — would wish to see Pres. nians are openly telling foreign journal - tions him well for transi tion to greater Rouhani strengthened. ists such things as: “People are desper ate author ity inside the country. Indeed, That, iron i cally, could enable the pres -

4 See, Bodansky, Yossef: “Iran’s Triumph in Iraq is Now Sealed, While Turkey and Iran Cooperate to Crush the Kurds with US Acquiescence”, in Defense & Foreign Affairs Special Analysis, June 15, 2018. 5 Copley, Gregory: “Iran’s Unity is Intact, But So, Too, the National Angst”, Defense & Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy, 1-2018. 6 See, Bodansky, Yossef: “Historical Fatalism, Water and Food Shortages, and Jihadism Conspire to Set the Stage for a Major Conflict Escalation Based on ‘Greater Syria’”, in Defense & Foreign Affairs Special Analysis, July 23, 2018. 7 Protestor quoted, anonymously, in The Guardian, UK, on July 20, 2018.

10. defense & foreign affairs strategic policy 8, 2018 ent cleri cal system sustained in office group. He has been running the Haghani Trump of the US fail ures in Af ghan - lon ger, even in the face of wide spread, School/Semi nary in Qom for decades i stan, Iraq and Ye men and the and grow ing public hostil ity, whereas the (since the 1980s). Most of Iran’s senior 33-day war against Hezbollah in rise of Soleimani as a cæsar, a Bonaparte, in tel li gence/se cu rity of fi cials, and sev - Leb anon, and said the US at tacked or the like could see a more rapid trans- eral seniors of both the Pasdaran and the the Taliban with 110-thou sand forma tion back to a more sec u lar frame - Baseej, gradu ated from Haghani and troops but af ter nearly two de cades work which could be gin the resto ra tion were thus re garded as faith ful fol lowers it is now beg ging the Taliban for ne - of eco nomic and social liberalization. of Mesbah-Yazdi (he is their Marja al- goti a tions. The fact that Hamid Aboutalebi, an Taqlid, or source of imi ta tion). He is ru- “Ask the ex-com mander of your adviser to Pres. Rouhani, tweeted in re - mored to be the head and spir itual guide forces in Iraq who he sent to me to sponse to Mr Trump that “re turning to of var i ous re li gious en ti ties in clud ing ask me to open a win dow of op por - the nuclear deal” and “respect ing the Ira- the mes si anic-mil i tant and se cre tive tunity by us ing my in flu ence to stop nian nation’s rights” would pave way for Hojjatiyeh Asso ci a tion. And Soleimani is attacks by Iraqi resis tance forces talks, showed that the Iranian Pres i dent re ported to be a leading member of the (Mujahedin) on the US soldiers so perhaps did not un derstand that he had Hojjatiyeh As so ci a tion. that they could with draw from Iraq? been served a stra te gic opening which Gen. Soleimani remains , however, in Have you for got ten that you had could lit erally be a ca reer saver. Even if he conten tion. The perti nent part of a re - provided adult-size di apers for your did un derstand that, it would have be - port of July 26, 2018, from the Fars News bat tle tank crews? What is your saga hooved Pres. Rouhani not to agree too Agency, which be longs to the Pasdaran, and what is the his tori cal back - readily. is wor thy of noting: ground that you rely on for threat- What all this has be gun, albeit outside en ing us?” the purview of the inter na tional media General Soleimani: IRGC Quds Force “You should know that there is (and therefore the intel li gence commu - Spearheading Any Confrontation not even a single night that we don’t ni ties), is a fur ther compli ca tion in the with US think of destroy ing you,” he said. trajec tory of Iranian power transi tion TEHRAN (FNA) — Com mander He named Trump as a gam bler, over the coming year or two. It is sig nifi - of the Islamic Revo lu tion Guards and said, “We are so close to you in cant that the res tora tion of a clear sense Corps (IRGC) Qods Force Ma jor- places that you might not even think of sover eignty and secure borders to Iran General Qasem Soleimani blasted of. Come to us! We are wait ing for is most likely un der a leader like Solei- US Pres i dent Don ald Trump for his you. You know that this war mani in a post-Islamist sense. In other hol low threats against Iran, warn ing (against Iran) means de struc tion of words, Soleimani’s de votion to the Ira- that the Qods Force alone is pow er - all of your possi bil i ties. You may nian histor i cal destiny, not his reli gious ful enough to stand against Wash - start the war, but we de cide when it principles, would most likely guide his ing ton in any pos si ble confronta- should end.” actions. tion with out any need of the other “Do not threaten us with kill ing. And it is equally sig nifi cant that a sov - Ira nian armed forces. We are thirsty for martyr dom and ereign, secu lar Iran of the post-cleri cal “We are closer to you than what an ni hi la tion of ar ro gant pow ers,” era would also serve to sat isfy the US and you think. You should know that I he said. Is rael, while be ing not un ac cept able to am your foe. The Qods Force alone Gen eral Soleimani re minded Moscow and Beijing at the same time. and not all the (Iranian) Armed Trump of the US awe and mil i tary Such an evolu tion, which could occur in Forces is enough to be your ri val (in power in the past, and said they have the time of US Pres. Trump’s first term, any con fron ta tion). You are aware be come so weak today that they could reduce concerns over strate gic of Iran’s power in asym met ric war,” have re sorted to Mojahedin-e Khalq (nuclear) insta bil ity far more than the General Soleimani said, ad dress ing Orga ni za tion (MKO, also known as JCPOA could ever have done. But it a fo rum in the West ern city of the MEK, PMOI and NCRI) ter ror - would not nec es sar ily help the sense of Hamedan on Thurs day. ist group to hit a blow to Iran. inse cu rity which has been rising across He un der lined that Trump's re - “There was a time when the US the Persian Gulf in Saudi Ara bia. cent remarks against Iran are not en joyed some awe, when its na val All that aside, the cler ics are maneu - worth re sponse by the Ira nian pres i - fleet started a voy age, a state would vering for a leader ship succes sion which dent, and said, “I, as a sol dier, re - col lapse, but to day you have pinned would pre serve their posi tion, if the spond to Trump. Mr Trump! How hope on the MKO that has been pub lic would ac cept it. Ayatol lah Mo- do you dare to threaten us?” bur ied in the waste land of the his - Gen eral Soleimani said that the tory. Have you really pinned hope hammad-Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi was, by on a wander ing woman that you mid-2018, be ing mentioned as a possi ble lit er ature that Trump uses to speak with other coun tries is like the take from one TV chan nel to an- suc ces sor of Khamene‘i. The main rea- other? Is that all your power?” he son for this is the de sire among the clos - words ut tered from the mouth of a per son who runs a cab aret or a ca - asked. est confi dants of Khamene‘i (in clud ing Gen. Soleimani thus esca lated the ne - his son, Mojtaba) to se lect a re li gious fig - sino, calling on the US pres i dent to ask the coun try's spy and se cu rity goti ating stakes with Pres. Trump while ure who would also be accept able to the also declar ing his polit i cal leader ship rising élites of the Pasdaran, In tel li gence, agen cies about Wash ing ton's fail - ures against Iran. within Iran. He had watched the Trump- and Baseej. Mesbah-Yazdi was a close Kim Jong-Un nego ti a tions, and took his friend of Khomeini and is an ul tra-or - “You did ev ery thing you could against Iran in the past 20 years but start ing posi tion with the US to the limit. thodox radi cal even by Qom stan dards. Who would now call whose bluff in the He is now a mem ber of the Assem bly vic tory be longed to the Ira nian na - tion,” he un der scored. US-Iran arena, or even within the Ira- of Ex perts, and the leader of the Endur - nian arena? H ance Front, a very con ser va tive po lit i cal Gen eral Soleimani re minded

8, 2018 defense & foreign affairs strategic policy 11. The Mid dle East By Yossef Bodansky, Senior Edi tor Can Wishing Make It So? Historical fatalism, water and food shortages, and jihadism conspire to set the stage for a major conflict escalation based on “Greater Syria”. It is already underway.

mminent conflict esca la tion in the histor ical “Greater Syria” [Greater Syria] and in al-Jazirah [the re gion has been predicted as the result of a great conflu ence of nat - Ara bian Pen in sula], whereas the stal- Iural and man-made trends now un der way. warts of the forces of the Dajjal [the arch-neme sis of the Messiah or Anti- The land of Bilad al-Sham, or just lands, includ ing the Holy Shrines; the Christ] will be the Jews and their hench- Sham, has a unique her i tage and evolv - conquest of Constan ti no ple and Rome men,” he wrote. Both sides would be ing ter ri tory in the annals of Islam. This (that is, challeng ing Muslim neme ses closing in on each other before the fate - is one of the keys to compre hending its and the Chris tian West); and the em- ful eruption in Sham. Sheikh Faraz rôle in the still un folding vi olent drama power ment of a righteous di vine Caliph Rabbani, re cently stressed the growing in the Hub of Islam. over the entire Muslim-ruled world value and rele vance of Ismail Ibn Kathir Accord ing to Arab Islamist geog ra - would origi nate from Sham. (c.1300-1373) and par tic u larly his book, phers, orig i nally “the term Sham re- In recent years, since the late 20th “The Signs before the Day of Judg ment”, ferred to an area that now includes parts Cen tury, these apoc a lyp tic proph e cies to the un derstand ing of the unfold ing ji- of mod ern Tur key, Leb a non, Pal es tine, have increas ingly become part of the had in and around Bilad al-Sham. “The Syria, Iraq and Saudi Arabia”. main stream con vic tions through out the very last group of Believ ers that will be Only since the middle of the 20th greater Middle East. Prof. Jean-Pierre on this earth be fore the Day of Judg ment Century has Sham become the Greater Filiu, a former French dip lomat with ex - will be in the land of Sham; there fore, the Syria, encom pass ing modern Syria and tensive expe ri ence in the Arab Middle land of Sham will be the very last land to ad ja cent ar eas in south ern mod ern Tur - East, warned in his 2008 book Apoca - have Muslims on it right before the end key, Leb anon, and the northern half of lypse in Islam of “the fast-grow ing belief of times,” Ibn Kathir wrote, ac cord ing to Pales tine (that is, Israel, the Pales tin ian in Mus lim coun tries that the end of the Rabbani. Author ity, and Jordan). world is at hand”. Even be fore the erup- There are numer ous tradi tions and Accord ing to Muslim mysti cism, the tion of the “Great In ti fa da” (aka “Arab popu lar myths in Islam about the im me - “End of Times” would start from Sham. Spring”), the on go ing fail ures and de - di ate and concrete har bin gers of that “There shall be a scented, perfumed, feats in the Arab Mid dle East were widely apoc a lyptic eruption at the “End of beauti ful wind coming from Sham that perceived as the har bingers of an immi - Times”. will take the soul of every Believer,” nent “End of Times”. “In the minds of These pop u lar tra di tions pro vide the Prophet Moham med said, accord ing to a the most im pas sioned be liev ers, each be lievers with the early or advance indi - Hadith. bloody defeat draws the moment of ul ti - cations that the Day of Judg ment is Far more impor tant to the cur rent po - mate and total triumph that much about to ar rive. One of the popu lar tra- lit i cal-mil i tary pos ture is the con vic tion nearer,” Filiu observed. di tions about such harbin gers is that the among Mus lims that the “End of Times” Arab jihadist scholars found in all cat a clys mic erup tion would take place, and the ar rival of al-Masih [the Mes siah] on-going events in the Middle East — and fire would consume the entire re - would be preceded by the apoca lyp tic from the Arab-Israeli confron ta tion, to gion, when the Three Great Rivers dry Malahem [the fateful epic bat tles and the US-led inva sions of Arab lands, to out. The rivers are the Eu phrates and wars of the apoc alypse]. Is lam’s deci sive the “Great In ti fa da” — indi ca tions of the Tigris of Um al-Rafidayn [The Mother Arma ged don would take place near fast approach ing Malahem. In 1997, of the Twin-Rivers or Meso pota mia] and Dabiq in northern Syria, north of Alep - Yussuf Mu ham mad Amr predicted that the Nile of Bilad al-Cananah [The Land po. “the 21st Century will wit ness the disap - of Canaan or the greater Egypt]. The en - “The last hour will not come until the pearance of the Jew ish im piety and of suing eruption of the cata clys mic war Romans ar rived in al-A’maq or Dabiq, those who support it, with the re turn of would orig i nate from the land sur- and an army consist ing of the best peo - Islam to power.” In 2002, Hisham Mo- rounded by these rivers: Bilad al-Sham. ple on earth in those days will hasten hammed Abu Hakima pre sented con - Presently, the en tire greater Middle them from Me dina,” Prophet Moham - tempo rary defi ni tions of the main forces East has been facing a se vere drought med pre dicted, ac cording to an Hadith in the Battle of Ar maged don. and dry ing up, from 2017, and this reported by Abu Hurayrah. This meant “The Islamic forces, be liev ing in Allah would likely only in tensify as the hot that the ensu ing liber a tion of all Muslim and in Him alone, will be found in Sham summer of 2018 dragged on.

12. defense & foreign affairs strategic policy 8, 2018 Conse quently, there are wide spread ethnic minor ities as well as areas of the creed that “the people’s revo lu tion is a ri ots, some turning very vio lent, over the general popu la tion which are less af- right”, and that he supported the people’s short ages of wa ter in Egypt, Jordan, Leb - fected by the shortages of water and “revo lu tion of the angry”. Address ing the anon, Syria, Iraq, Tur key, and Iran. Water power. peo ple’s griev ances should take pre ce - sup plies were, in many instances by resently, there are dis tur- dence over forming a new govern ment, mid-July 2018, be ing cut to a few hours a bances, riots and even vi o lent in - he felt. “All po lit i cal blocs which won in day, and the qual ity of wa ter was rapidly Psur rec tion in ar eas in hab ited by the current elec tions should suspend all de te ri o rat ing to be ing brown and mal - mainstream Irani ans, Kurds, po lit i cal dis cus sions to form al li ances odorous. There were no lon ger any wa ter Ahwazi Arabs, Baluchis, and Azerbai- and other, un til the pro test ers’ le git i mate sup plies as lo cal wells — both le gal and janis. demands are met and a seri ous commit - il le gal — were dry ing up in many urban tee is formed to work with the govern - Where local police have failed to quell slums and remote villages. ment in coor di na tion with protes tors in the riots, Persian units of the Pasdaran Some of the cause of these rivers’ dry - or der to ful fill their demands,” Sadr and Basij are brought in and they fre - ing up is man-made: the out come of the stated. quently use live fire against the riot ers. be ginning of filling up of the ar ti ficial Meanwhile, Sadrists were closely co - Tehran is clearly cog nizant of the grav ity lakes of the Ilisu Dam in Tur key on the op er at ing with Shi’ite Arab sheikhs of the cri ses which have broken to the Tigris and, it is claimed (but disputed), through out southern Iraq and the Bagh - sur face. the Grand Ethio pian Renais sance (hy- dad area in order to orga nize a million- In Shi’ite central and south ern Iraq, dropower) Dam in Ethio pia on the Blue man demon stra tion on Fri day, July 20, protests over acute short ages of wa ter Nile, as well as the forced filling of the 2018. Prime Min is ter Haider al-Abadi and electric ity due to the dry ing up of Atatürk Dam on the Eu phrates, in some warned that the se curity forces would the Euphra tes and the Tigris quickly es- instances in order to compen sate for the open fire be cause there were “sub ver sive calated. On-site observ ers in Arab Shi’ite lin ger ing drought. As well, the drought ele ments among the protest ers”. areas of Iraq noted that “so cial griev - from which the greater Mid dle East has On that Fri day morn ing, the com- ances that once simmered on the back been suffer ing for a de cade now also has mander of the Iraqi élite police forces, burner have boiled over in a se ries of an aggre gate impact on the levels of wa- Maj.-Gen. Thamer al-Husseini, declared protests that have spread to several cit - ter coming down from nearby moun - any and all demon stra tions “ille gal” and ies”. In increas ingly vio lent riots, “people tains and feeding tributaries. backed his threat with a mas sive show of have vented their anger over unem ploy - In the case of northern Iraq, the flow force by the secu rity forces throughout ment, high prices, power cuts and a lack from western Iran is at an all-time low. the entire Shi’ite area. Never the less, hun - of usable water”. The worsen ing shortages of water, as dreds of thou sands braved the cordon These protests repre sent “an explo - well as the en suing short ages of most ba- and demon strated in the afternoon. sion of rage at an en tire sys tem that has sic food and electric ity (be cause of the “Our demands are [the] people’s de- brazenly robbed Iraqis of the chance for paral y sis of some hydro-elec tric sta- mands,” explained a protester in Bagh- a better life”, explained Iraqi ex pert tions) — and fears of short ages caused dad’s Tahrir Square. “We want drastic Fanar Haddad. The frequent use of by report ing — are sending the grass - solu tions. We want to change the gov - deadly force by both the mil i tary and roots popu lation to the streets in wide- ernment. It has been 15 years, and there Shi’ite mi li tias has failed to quell the ri - spread ri ots from Iran to Egypt and from is no em ployment, no services.” The peo - ots. On the contrary, the riot ers started Turkey to Saudi Ara bia. What began as ple of Basra “will no longer remain si - shout ing anti-Ira nian and anti-cler i cal in dige nous fear over the plight of daily lent. ... It has been 15 years, and still they slo gans. In Najaf, ri ot ers burned signs in life has quickly evolved into commu nal [the Gov ernment] haven’t been able to Iranian insti tu tions which have the late protests against higher authorities and pro vide us with elec tricity,” explained a Aya tol lah Ruhollah Khomeini’s picture the ruling states. protes tor. “We are just poor people who on them: an unthink able trans gression. A myriad of grass roots heri tage griev - have come to demand their rights,” ex- Start ing in Basra and spreading to Najaf, ances is coming to the surface. Signif i - plained another in Basra’s main Square. Karbala, and other Shi’ite cit ies, ri ot ers cantly, in all the countries, more seg - In Syria, local tribes, mainly Sunni stress the failure of post-Saddam Iraq ments of the grass roots popu lace are Arab but also Kurdish, reach out to the which was es tab lished 15 years ago in the partic i pat ing in the ongo ing protest and Bashar al-Assad Govern ment, and by de- af ter math of the US-led inva sion of ri ots than at the height of the origi nal in- fault Rus sia, for hu man i tar ian help. The 2003. ti fa das of 2011-12. US-led forces which claimed to have lib - The demon stra tors then began calling In west ern Iran, the lo cal minor ity- erated Sunni Arab Raqqa and the in- for re gional auton omy for the Shi’ite nation al i ties — the Kurds and the creasingly dry Euphra tes Valley have Arabs; at the least a status sim i lar to that Ahwazi Arabs — started protest ing over proven unwill ing to, and inca pa ble of, of Iraqi Kurdistan. acute shortages of water, electric ity, food, help ing the desti tute civilian population. These calls were get ting louder and and other services. The demon stra tions The situ a tion in predom i nantly Kurd- louder, challeng ing the deli cate process quickly became vio lent ri ots with the ish north-eastern Syria is no better. in Baghdad of agree ing on a pre domi - crowds blam ing the na tional au thor i ties In contrast, numer ous Russian and nantly Shi’ite gov ern ment ac cept able to in Tehran of discrim i na tion on the basis Syrian govern ment convoys deliv ered pan-Shi’ite Teh ran. On July 19, 2018, of eth nic ity. Sig nif i cantly, the ri ots and huge quanti ties of human i tar ian aid to Iraqi Shi’ite leader Moqtada al-Sadr de- protests have spread rapidly to include the hard-hit areas with out any demand

8, 2018 defense & foreign affairs strategic policy 13. from the people. These convoys braved guided reforms. need. US-led co alition air strikes and am- Pan icked, Ri yadh has re acted with Signif i cantly, while the Islamists pro - bushes by US-led lo cal forces. As well, brute force and has inten si fied the crack- vide justi fica tion and logic for over - aircraft and heli cop ters dropped sup- down on dissent. On July 11, 2018, the throwing govern ments and delegitim- plies in remote areas. The Sunni Arab Saudis arrested, in Buraydah, the promi - izing modern states, they offer no con- tribes do get the mes sage as they are forc - nent Islamist scholar Sheikh Safar al- crete or timely solu tions to the plight of ing the jihadists in their midst to sur ren- Hawali, three of his sons, and his brother, the grass roots. Hence the grass roots in - der, va cate the area, and move to the Idlib Sheikh Saadallah. Hawali is the ven er able crease their gravi ta tion around ethno- enclave. The Kurdish author i ties in leader and leading theolo gian of the centric heri tage frameworks [Qaum]: Rojava announced their intent to reach Islamist oppo si tion, the founding leader mainly tribes and extended fami lies. compre hen sive agreements with Damas - of the Sahwa movement in the early With no remedy on the hori zon, the cus. (The US be trayal of the Kurds in 1990s, and a key scholar of apoc a lyptic entire greater Middle East is bracing for a Manbij in favor of a deal with Tur key did vi sions and doc trines with empha sis on rapidly expand ing and esca lat ing Sum- not help.) the lib era tion and cleansing of the Holy mer of discon tent. In Jordan, ri ots have been spreading Shrines (in Mecca, Me dina and Jeru sa- Kuwai ti Prof. Abdullah al-Shayji and es calat ing all over the country since lem) by jihadists as a pre cur sor to the warned in The Gulf News of the impend - Spring 2018. “End of Times”. ing esca la tion. “As the Summer kicks in, Protests started over new taxes and Ac cording to sources in Ri yadh, the scene in the Arab world looks bleak. growing shortages. With time, larger Hawali was ar rested because of his just- ... [T]here is lit tle cause for cheer.” The crowds joined demon stra tions over the published book, Muslims and West ern cur rent cri sis is the outcome of “the dys- acute short ages of wa ter, work, fuel, Cul ture, which harshly attacked the func tional and at times chaotic Arab cooking oil, elec tricity, and food. Riots of House of al-Saud, the socio-economic pol i tics”. Shayji ob served that in most vary ing sizes persisted in all key Jorda - re form pol i cies, and the friendly re la- countries the people now rede fined nian cities: Amman, Zarqa, Irbid, Karak, tions with the US, the UAE, Israel, and themselves along “sectar ian, tribal eth- and Salt. The riots by mid-July 2018 were Egypt. Signif i cantly, the book alluded to nic lines, which per pet uate frag mented threat en ing the po lit i cal sta bil ity of the the har bingers of the “End of Times” and broken soci et ies and polit i cal sys- country. There was widespread de spair when the di vine al-Masih would take tems.” over the bleak fu ture of the Jor danian over the Holy Shrines from the cur rent There might be no way back from this public, and anger at the human i tar ian “unwor thy custo di ans”: the House of al- transfor ma tion of soci ety throughout aid accorded to millions of Syr ian refu - Saud. the Middle East. gees (which Amman cor rectly attrib utes Meanwhile, the Irani ans have renewed So the absence of via ble concrete solu - to pressure from the US-led West) while their claim to the Holy Shrines in the tions is sending the believ ers into em- Jordanians received nothing. name of Shi’ite Islam. brac ing mys ti cism and apoc a lyp tic ex- And public outrage was increas ingly In mid-July 2018, Iran’s Su preme pec tations. Since the current plight focused on the Hashemite Royal Family. Leader Aya tol lah Ali Khamene’i urged could neither be alle viated nor ex - Since the Jorda nian economy and so- the removal of the House of al-Saud plained, it has been inter preted as the ciety were con sid ered as be ing be yond from the cus to di an ship of the Holy harbin ger of a higher dynamic. The re pair, at least in the near-term, a wider Shrines and the es tab lish ment of a re li - wide spread suffer ing, along with the eruption in Jor dan was increas ingly gious all-Muslim (both Sunni and dramatic signs of divine catas tro phes, likely. In deed, Islamist el ements were, Shi’ite) council in its stead. “The holy have thus cre ated the grass roots’ ex pec - through July 2018, orga niz ing vio lent ri - lands of Mecca and Mina be long to all tations of an impend ing cata clys mic ots which not only protest the socio-eco- Mus lims,” Khamene’i stated, “it does not eruption herald ing the “Day of Judg - nomic desti tute, but of fer Islamist so lu- be long to rulers of Saudi Ara bia.” ment”. It is because of this distinc tion, tions as a via ble alter na tive and prin- By now, lo cal gov ern ments through- rather than the day-to-day car nage, cipled challenge to the monarchy and its out the greater Middle East had no in- which makes the ongo ing ji had in Bilad legitimacy. kling how to cope with the ca tas tro phes: al-Sham so uniquely crucial to the future The most danger ous riots in Jor dan with the short ages of wa ter, the marked of the entire greater Middle East, and, to have been taking place in the increas - de cline in food pro duc tion, the massive a great extent, the entire Hub of Islam. ingly Islamist-rad i cal south, bor der ing in ter nal mi gra tion and dis lo ca tion from After all, as the Hadith, re corded by Saudi Arabia’s Qassim Province. ru ral areas which over whelmed the al - both Abu Dawood and Ahmed, ar ticu - Qassim, par tic u larly its cap i tal, Buray- ready-collaps ing ur ban slums filled with lated, Prophet Moham med stressed the dah, has long been the cen ter of rad i cal refu gees from fight ing and carnage, and, sig nif i cance of Sham as the blessed key to Islamist op po si tion to the House of most impor tantly, the inten si fy ing radi - the “End of Time”. Prophet Moham med al-Saud. Lit tle won der that the lo cal pop- cal iza tion of the grass roots which chal - told his compan ions: “It will be such u lace has re acted harshly to the reforms lenged the govern ments’ own legit i macy. [time] that many ar mies [of Islam] will of Saudi Crown Prince Moham med bin The lowest common denom i na tor of all be mustered. An army in Sham, an army Salman bin ‘Abd al-’Aziz al Sa’ud and the grass roots protests and ri ots is the fur - in Iraq and an army in Yemen.” A com- over all de te ri o ra tion of the eco nomic ther alienation from, and re jec tion of, pan ion asked: “If I live that long, which posture due to the fall in oil prices, mis- the state au thor i ties for their failures to do you choose for me?” And Prophet manage ment, corrup tion, and mis- take care of the people at a time of dire Moham med replied: “I choose Sham for

14. defense & foreign affairs strategic policy 8, 2018 you, be cause it is the best of places, and While the over all po lit i cal frame work bolism of the eruption, the ensu ing the land that Al lah has chosen for his was worked out between Mos cow, Jeru - fight ing would spread throughout the special bondsmen ... [and] for Al lah sa lem, Da mas cus, Amman, and Wash - re gion. Ta’ala has guaran teed that He will look ington, the real success on the ground A mul ti tude of in dig e nous con flicts af ter the land of Sham and its inhab- was the re sult of Russian-led medi a tion are now once again threat ening to esca - itants.” and rec on cil i a tion deals with the in di - late and spread. ,   in vid ual tribes and extended families in At the same time, however, there is and for Bilad al-Sham are the area. now a unique op por tu nity to cap i tal ize now in their sev enth year. The de cisive factors for these deals on the de spair and yearning for local ized That the fratri cidal carnage were the grow ing repu ta tion for com- solu tions in order to attain peaceful re - Mis tak ing place in the same geo graphic pre hen sion of lo cal dy nam ics and fair- gional bot tom-up com pro mises based area does not mean that there is com - ness of the GRU’s (Rus sian Mil i tary In - on the Fer tile Crescent of Mi nor i ties and mon al ity be tween the var i ous wars un - tel li gence) ne go ti at ing teams, the fair- lo cal ized Arab her i tage-based en ti ties. In folding simul ta neously. ness of the members of Mili tary Police or der to secure their own local ized vi tal units (par tic u larly Chechen Mus lim in ter ests and self-iden ti ties, these mi- There is, however, a sense shared by all MPs) over see ing the im ple men ta tion of nor ity and Arab enti ties could constrain that the con flicts and car nage might fi- these agree ments, and the lav ish hu man- the abil ity of both Iran and Turkey to nally be coming to an end be cause the i tar ian aid which has followed all project power regionally. par tic i pants and the pop u la tion at large agreements. Fail ure to empower these local ized en- are exhausted. It was in dige nous tribal forces, rather ti ties would likely re inforce the grass - Hence, all key par tici pants — the re - than Syr ian shelling and bombing, roots’ con vic tion that the end less and gional states (mainly Tur key and Iran, which compelled lo cal jihadist forces in worsening cri ses and des ti tu tion were but also Is rael), the var i ous jihadist the Daraa area to cease fight ing, and then in deed the har bin gers of the apoc a lyp tic movements, and the grass roots eth no- sur ren der or leave. Malahem as promised by the jihadists. centric [Qaum] group ings — seem to be Simi larly, Sunni Arab tribes in the For the grassroots of the greater Middle prepar ing for a possi ble final surge to Idlib enclave, the bastion of Sunni East, this would be come a self-ful filling guar an tee their vi tal in ter ests be fore “the jihadism where Dabiq and A’maq are lo- prophesy, and, as the Hadith pre dicts, the fi nal cur tain”. cated, were reaching out to the Russians Malahem would spread from Bilad Ea ger to avoid such a calam ity, lo cal for rec on cil i a tion deals and mil i tary help al-Sham all the way to the Holy Shrines pop u la tion group ings are ea ger for rec - against the jihadists, par tic u larly the Tur - (Mecca, Me dina, and Jeru salem) and be - on cil i a tion deals with Da mas cus and its key-spon sored units. Should these Sunni yond, with no end in sight. Rus sian pa trons which could al le vi ate Arab tribes be pre vented from complet - Mean while, two hours of a red blood the threat of esca la tion and pro vide bare ing the rec on cili ation deals with the Rus- moon — an other pop u lar har bin ger of ne ces si ties for the population. sians and Da mas cus, it must be ex pected the “End of Time” in Muslim beliefs — The deal about the Golan border of - that there would be a ma jor erup tion of was seen over the greater Middle East on fered a useful outline for fu ture deals. desti tution and de spair. Given the sym- July 27, 2018. H

,        . En Clair En Clair En Clair En Clair

Nigeria’s Buhari Government Implodes Turkey’s Cri sis May Be Terminal Turkish Pres. Reçep Tayyip Erdogan seems to be- igeria’s inter nal secu rity situ a tion was, by mid-August 2018, al most at a tip- lieve that the US will stop short of forcing Turkey out of ping point, with the Govern ment of Pres. Muhammadu Buhari now unable to NATO, destroy ing its currency, and pushing it into an al - N liance with Russia and the People’s Repub lic of China. control cor rup tion, law enforce ment, or the war against insur gents. But is his con fidence jus ti fied? Pres. Buhari, who has become a virtual pris oner of his the second week of August 2018 that pressure on Pres. The Turkish economy, which has been weak for some own staff, may soon make it clear that he would not, in Buhari to withdraw from the 2019 elec tion had come, years, is now in severe dan ger, and not merely be cause US fact, run for re-election to the Presi dency on Febru ary 16, partic u larly, from the Euro pean Union, the US, the UK, Pres. Don ald Trump in sti tuted mi nor economic sanc tions 2019, even though — after much pressure from his team and Saudi Ara bia. The news website Nairaland said on against two Turkish offi cials and doubled US tariffs on im - — he had ear lier said that he would. August 14, 2018: “Shortly before his depar ture to the UK ported Turkish steel and alumi num. On Septem ber 27, Many on the Presi dent’s team are concerned that not [in August 2018], the Pres ident had appealed to his sup- 2013, Defense & Foreign Affairs noted that Turkey’s “econ- only would their ac cess to corrupt funds be ended, but porters across the nation to suspend campaigns for his omy, built on foreign direct invest ment, has be gun to they would, under the next Admin is tra tion, likely face le - re-elec tion in com pli ance with the elec toral law, say ing it founder and its over all fragil ity is likely to be come pro found gal con sequences. As a result, a num ber of the high est had come to the re aliza tion of the presi dency that his within the coming year”, which it did. But Pres. Trump’s di- offi cials in “the Villa” — the Pres iden tial offices — in sup port ers had started cam paigns through ad vo ca cies rect with drawal of US friend ship in August 2018 caused the Abuja have attempted to de-rail the anti-corrup tion en- and placement of adver tise ments in the me dia. A mem- Turkish lira, already weak, to slump a further 35 percent, be- qui ries which Pres. Buhari had ini ti ated after tak ing of fice ber of the [the Presi dent’s] All Progres sives Congress fore a prom ise of Qatari sup port helped it re cover slightly. But the eco nomic col lapse in Tur key, which Mr Erdogan on May 29, 2015. A number of extra-ju di cial killings and National Working Commit tee, who also confirmed the knew was coming, was the reason he brought forward the attempted assas si na tions of corrup tion probers were al- devel op ment, said there was a possi bil ity that the Pre- elec tions from No vem ber 3, 2019, to June 24, 2018. Even leged to have been ordered at “the highest level” under sident might not seek re-election.” then, Mr Erdogan and his gov erning AKP achieved only the Buhari. Vice-Pres. Oluyemi Oluleke (Yemi) Osinbajo has Within all this, the confron ta tion between the Exec u - slim mest of vic to ries. Mean while, Turkey’s civil war against attempted to restrain the Villa offi cials, and those within tive Branch of the Govern ment and the National Assem - the Kurds and their multi-ethnic allies gath ers pace out side the State Secu rity Service and Armed Forces, but with bly esca lated on August 7, 2018, while Pres. Buhari was the glare of media scrutiny. little success. in . Armed person nel of the Dept. of State Secu - If US Pres. Don ald Trump was se ri ous, he could also di - The Armed Forces leader ship, which had success - rity (DSS) blocked entry to the National Assem bly in an rect the State Dept. to lift its embargo on the sale of US de- fully resisted oversight and chain of command control attempt to stop sena tors voting. This fol lowed the defec - fense equip ment to Cy prus (in ex pli ca bly in place since dur ing the ear lier Pres i dency of Goodluck Jon a than tion of some 50 mem bers of the House of Rep re sen ta - 1985) and pe nalize Turkey for using US defense equip ment (2010-15), have not only contin ued to resist account - tives and the Senate from the govern ing All Progres sives il le gally for the 1974 in va sion and sub se quent oc cu pa tion of abil ity un der Buhari (even though some se nior of ficers Congress (APC) party to the main oppo si tion in the few the northern 37 percent of Cyprus. were replaced), but have put the theft of funds above ev - weeks be fore. These in cluded Senate Pres ident Bukola Pres. Trump’s sign ing of a $716-billion defense spend - ery thing else. This has already resulted in several muti - Saraki. The Pres ident’s key team in the Villa, includ ing ing bill on August 13, 2018, included an amendment which nies, includ ing an inci dent at the Maiduguri In ter na tional his Chief of Staff and the National Se curity Advi sor, had prohib ited the sale by the US to Turkey of F-35 Light ning II Air port in Borno State — the focus of the guerilla war by wanted Sen. Saraki impeached, but the only way that com bat aircraft un less the Defense Depart ment is sued a re- port downplaying the dam age to the se cure op era tion of the Boko Haram — on August 12, 2018, when mem bers of could be guaran teed was if oppo si tion and defect ing F-35 if it was adopted by the Turkish Air Force while the TAF the Armed Forces Spe cial Force (AFSF) fired shots in the APC sena tors could be prevented from entering the was also op er at ing the Rus sian S-400 air de fense mis sile air, and threatened to shoot Brig.-Gen. Abdulmalik Bul- Parliamentary complex. system. The Penta gon has histor i cally given Turkey the ben - ama Biu, the Act ing General Of ficer Com mander (GOC) Vice Presi dent — Acting Presi dent, given that Pres. e fit of the doubt, but this time Pres. Erdogan has esca lated of 7 Di vi sion, if he showed up. More than 300 mem bers Buhari was out of the country — Yemi Osinbajo, a former his hostil ity toward the US, which may make it diffi cult for of the AFSF had been posted to Borno al most four years law pro fessor, was alerted to the DSS ac tions, and he im - the DoD to justify re lease of the F-35. Defense Secre tary Jim earlier, but more than 200 of them have sub sequently medi ately dismissed DSS Direc tor-Gen eral Lawal Musa Mattis had, in a let ter to Con gress in August 2018, urged been killed in op er a tions. Sev eral AFSF troops have now Daura, noting: “The unlaw ful act, which was done with- Con gress not to stop the F-35 trans fer. been charged with mutiny, but nothing has been done to out the knowl edge of the presi dency, is condem nable Sec. Mattis made his case to safeguard the F-35’s in- alle vi ate the plight of troops thrown away in badly-led and completely unac cept able.” A group of Buhari sup- dustrial/cost base, but the sale of a proposed 100 F-35As to oper a tions, or to stop the theft by senior offi cers of port ers, how ever, re tal i ated im me di ately. The group, Turkey could be offset by a sale of a simi lar number of troops’ food money and wages. which included as many as four state gover nors, the At- F-35Bs to the Repub lic of China (ROC: Taiwan) Air Force. The corrup tion is also profound in the large systems tor ney-Gen eral, and some close Ad min is tra tion of fi cials, Trump would si mul ta neously pun ish Tur key and bol ster the procure ment area, and in all three branches of the mil i- flew imme di ately to London to convince Pres. Buhari to ROC. And, many argue, hasn’t Turkey already left the West tary, and the chiefs and se nior of ficers of all ser vices are re verse the dismissal of Daura, given that Daura was the any way, in all but name? And doesn’t the US need, in any known to be actively engaged. offi cial on whom they counted to under take “dirty jobs”. event, to bolster the ROC and Ja pan sooner rather than later if it is to con tain the PRC in the Pa cific? The death toll among troops fighting Boko Haram How ever, the Vice-Pres ident’s of fice had al ready be gun On Au gust 15, 2018, the Amer ican Hel lenic In stitute was, in 2018, moving dra mati cally higher, along with in- rapidly gather ing incrim i nat ing infor ma tion — includ ing (AHI) published an Is sue Brief on the In ter na tional Traf fic in creasing losses of Army equipment to Boko Haram (in - dis cov eries of large caches of money, weap ons, and Arms Reg u la tions (ITAR) under which the United States had cluding 10 heavy trucks taken in the first weeks of August other items linked to Mr Daura — which would likely pro hib ited sales of US de fense ar ti cles and ser vices to the 2018 when 166 troops were killed and some 300 make it difficult for the President to reverse the decision. Re pub lic of Cyprus since 1985. In June 2018, AHI dis - wounded, not the single sol dier wounded as the Govern - The Villa denied all the accu sa tions against Mr Daura, cussed the issue with State Depart ment offi cials. It de- ment claimed). Boko Haram con tin ues to es ca late the but further disclo sures about the action of the cabal (Di - scribed the ITAR, ana lyzed why the pro hibi tion on Cyprus qual i ta tive level of its in sur gency. [The Borno State Gov - rector-Gen eral Daura, National Secu rity Advi sor retired was unlaw ful, explained how the State Depart ment itself ernor and the Task Force Commander attended the burial Maj.-Gen. Babagana M. Monguno, and Pres i den tial could re move Cy prus from the application of the ITAR prohi - cer e mo nies for the 166 troops killed.] Chief of Staff Abba Kyari) would possi bly irrep a ra bly bition and concluded that leg isla tion was not nec essary. There was now growing evi dence that Turkish and Ira - dam age Pres. Buhari’s chance, if they still existed, for re- “The State Depart ment has the le gal author ity to rem edy nian govern ment agencies were contin u ing to support elec tion. what has been, for years, an unlaw ful pro hibi tion on arms Boko Haram in a va riety of ways, and that, for ex am ple, The af fair could well, in fact, lead Pres. Buhari to re- trans fers to … Cy prus,” AHI Pres. Nick Larigakis said. Bol - nomadic Fulani cattle herd ers, who were of ten engaged sign on health grounds — which would be diffi cult to re- stering Cyprus would directly confront Turkey. in vi olent re talia tory fights with settler farmers in Central fute — leaving the bal ance of the Presi den tial term to The bottom line is that Turkey is heading toward stra tegic Ni ge ria (sep a rate from the Boko Haram war in the north), Vice-Pres. Osinbajo, who could then well be a credi ble collapse, anyway, and this has little to do with the present US-Turkey spat. Pres. Erdogan uses that dispute, however, were using AK-47s and Iranian-made ammu ni tion. candi date for the 2019 election, but he would need to to create an exter nal enemy which “threatens Turkey”, to Pres. Buhari, quite apart from his trademark unwill - work quickly to re move vir tu ally the en tire Buhari team dis tract from the eco nomic and polit ical col lapse over which ing ness to make dif ficult de ci sions, was also in de clining from the Villa and the Armed Forces. And there are ques- he has presided. How ever, in Wash ington, DC, there is no health. His two-week “working holi day” to London in Au - tions as to whether he could actu ally achieve that. n con sensus as to the options open to the US if Erdogan col - gust 2018 was, in fact, for medi cal treatment; his third See also: “Ni ge ria Prepares for a Ma jor Chal lenge to lapsed and, for exam ple, if Turkey was to face break-up. signif i cant visit to the UK during his presi dency for health Buhari, But First ...”, in De fense & For eign Af fairs Stra- Mos cow and Beijing, too, are look ing at the is sue of a rea sons. Sev eral Ni ge rian me dia out lets had in di cated in te gic Pol icy, 7-2018. “post-Erdogan” or “post-Tur key” balance. n

16. defense & foreign affairs strategic policy 8, 2018 The Power Tables Signif i cant elections and changes in govern ments since January 1, 2016 Coun try Date of Trans fer For mer Head of Re sul tant Head of Ef fec tive Rul ing Type of Cause of Change of Power or poll Gov ern ment/State Gov ern ment/State Party-Group Govern ment

An gola...... Sep. 25, 2017 ....Pres. Jose Edu ar do dos Santos. . Pres. João Manuel Lourenço ....MPLA ...... Re publi can/pres i den tial ....Elec tions, Aug. 23, 2017 Ar me nia...... May 8, 2018 .....Act. PM Ka ren Vilhelmi Karapetyan PM Nikol Pashinyan ...... Yelq/Civil Contract ...... Repub li can/pres i den tial ....Parlt. elected Pashinyan Ar me nia...... Apr. 23, 2018 ....PM Serzh Sargysan ...... Act. PM Ka ren Vilhelmi Karapetyan . HKK ...... Re publi can/pres i den tial ....Serzh Sargysan re signed Ar me nia...... Apr. 17, 2018 ....PM Karen Vilhelmi Karapetyan . . PM Serzh Sargysan...... HKK...... Repub li can/pres i den tial ....Parl. elected Serzh Sargysan Ar me nia...... Apr. 9, 2018 .....Pres. Serzh Sarkisian...... Pres. Armen Vardani Sarkissian . . . HHK ...... Re publi can/pres i den tial ....Elec tions, Mar. 2, 2018 Ar me nia...... Apr. 2, 2017 .....PM Karen Vilhelmi Karapetyan . . PM Karen Vilhelmi Karapetyan . . . HHK ...... Re publi can/pres i den tial ....Elec tions, Apr. 2, 2017 Austra lia ...... July 18, 2016.....PM Malcolm Turnbull ...... PM Malcolm Turnbull ...... Lib eral-Na tional Co ali tion ....Const. mon ar chy/parlt. ....Elec tions, Jul. 2, 2016 Aus tria...... Jan. 26, 2017 ....Pres. Heinz Fischer ...... Pres. Al ex an der Van der Bellen . . . Green ...... Re pub li can/par lia men tary . . . Election re-run, Dec. 4, 2016 Aus tria...... May 23, 2016 ....Int. Ch. Michael Häupl ...... Ch. Chris tian Kern ...... SPÖ...... Re pub li can/par lia men tary . . . Parlt. elected new Ch. Aus tria...... May 9, 2016 .....Chanc. Werner Faymann .....Int. Ch. Michael Häupl ...... SPÖ...... Re pub li can/par lia men tary . . . Ch. Faymann re signed, May 9, 2016 Azerbaijan ...... Apr. 18, 2018 ....Pres. Ilham Aliyev ...... Pres. Ilham Aliyev ...... YAP...... Re publi can/pres i den tial ....Elec tion, Apr. 11, 2018 Azerbaijan ...... Apr. 21, 2018 ....PM Artur Rasizade ...... PM Novruz Mammadov...... YAP...... Re publi can/pres i den tial ....Ap pointed Apr. 21, 2018 Ba ha mas...... May 10, 2017 ....PM Perry Chris tie ...... PM Hubert Minnis ...... FNM...... Const. mon ar chy/parlt. ....Gen eral elec tion, May 10, 2017 Benin ...... Apr. 2016 ...... Pres. Thomas Yayi Boni .....Pres. Patrice Talon ...... Independent ...... Repub li can/pres i den tial ....Pres. election, Mar. 6 and 20, 2016 ...... May 12, 2016 ....Pres. Dilma Vana Rousseff ....Act. Pres. Michel Temer ...... PMDB ...... Re publi can/pres i den tial ....Sen ate voted to im peach Pres. Rousseff Burkina Faso ...... Jan. 6, 2017 .....—...... PM Paul Kaba Thieba...... MPP...... Repub li can/pres i den tial ....Parl't appr. Jan. 6, 2017 China (ROC) ...... May 20, 2016 ....Pres. Ma Ying-jeou ...... Pres. Tsai Ing-wen ...... DPP...... Repub li can/pres i den tial ....Pres. election, Jan. 16, 2016 Co lom bia ...... Aug. 7, 2018 .....Pres. Juan Manuel Santos ....Pres. Iván Duque Márquez .....CD...... Re pub li can/Pres i den tial ....Elec tions, May 27-June 17, 2018 Costa Rica ...... May 8, 2018 .....Pres. Luis Guillermo Solís ....Pres. Carlos Alvarado Quesada . . . PAC ...... Re publi can/pres i den tial ....Elec tions, Feb. 4 and Apr. 1, 2018 Croatia...... Oct. 19, 2016.....PM Tihomir Oreškovic ...... PM Andrej Plenkovic ...... HDZ/Most ...... Re publi can/pres i den tial ....Elec tions, Sep. 11, 2016 Cuba...... Apr. 19, 2018 ....Pres. Raúl Cas tro Ruz ...... Pres. Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermudez . PCC ...... Re publi can/pres i den tial ....Pres. Castro re signed. Cyprus ...... Mar. 1, 2018 .....Pres. Nicos Anastasiades.....Pres. Nicos Anastasiades ...... DISY...... Repub li can/parlt...... Elec tions, Jan. 28 and Feb. 4, 2018 Djibouti ...... Apr. 8, 2016 .....Pres. Ismaïl Omar Guelleh ....Pres. Ismaïl Omar Guelleh .....RPP...... Re publi can/pres i den tial ....Elec tion, Apr. 8, 2016 Egypt ...... Jun. 7, 2018 .....PM Sharif Ismail...... PM Mostafa Madbouly ...... Indep...... Re publi can/pres i den tial ....PM Ismail res. Jun. 5, 2018 Egypt ...... Jun. 2, 2018 .....Pres. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi ....Pres. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi...... Indep...... Re publi can/pres i den tial ....Elec tions, Mar. 26-28, 2018 Ethi o pia ...... April 2, 2018 .....Int. PM Hailemariam Dessalegn . PM Abiy Ahmed Ali ...... EPRDF ...... Re pub li can/par lia men tary . . . Abiy elected to re place Hailemariam Ethi o pia ...... Feb. 15, 2018 ....PM Hailemariam Dessalegn . . . Interim PM Hailemariam Dessalegn. EPRDF ...... Re pub li can/parlia mentary . . . PM re signed Feb. 15, 2018 France ...... May 15, 2017 ....PM Ber nard Cazeneuve .....PM Edouarde Philippe ...... En March!-led co ali tion.....Re pub li can/par lia men tary . . . In com ing Pres. ap pointed France ...... May 14, 2017 ....Pres. François Hollande .....Pres. Em man uel Ma cron ...... En Marche!...... Re pub li can/par lia men tary . . . Elec tion, May 7, 2017 France ...... Dec. 6, 2016 .....PM Manuel Valls...... PM Ber nard Cazeneuve ...... PS...... Re pub li can/par lia men tary . . . PM Valls re signed Ga bon...... May 4, 2018 .....PM Em man uel Issoze-Ngondet. . PM Em man uel Issoze-Ngondet . . . PDG ...... Re publi can/pres i den tial ....Govt. resigned Apr. 30, 2018 Gambia, The ...... Jan. 19, 2017 ....Pres. Yahya Jammeh...... Pres.-elect Adama Bar row .....Ind.Co ali tion ...... Par lia men tary/pres i den tial. . . Pres. elec tions, Dec. 1, 2016. Dis puted. Georgia ...... Jun. 20, 2018 ....PM Giorgi Kvirikashvili...... PM Mamuka Bakhtadze ...... Geor gian Dream ...... Re pub li can/parlia men tary . . . PM Kvirikashvili re signed Jun. 13, 2018 Ger many...... Mar. 19, 2017 ....Pres. Joachim Gauck...... Pres. Frank-Walter Steinmeier . . . CDU ...... Re pub li can/par lia men tary . . . Elec tion, Feb. 12, 2017 Ghana ...... Jan. 7, 2017 .....Pres. John Dramani Mahama . . . Pres. Nana Akuffo-Addo ...... NPP...... Repub li can/pres i den tial ....Elec tions, Dec. 7, 2016 Hondu ras ...... Jan. 2018 ...... Pres. Juan Orlando Hernández . . Pres. Juan Orlando Hernández . . . PN ...... Repub li can/pres i den tial ....Elec tions, Nov. 26, 2017 (dis puted) Hungary ...... Apr. 9, 2018 .....PM Viktor Orbán ...... PM Viktor Orbán ...... FIDESZ-KDNP ...... Re pub li can/par lia men tary . . . Elec tion, Apr. 8, 2018 Ice land ...... Jan. 11, 2017 ....PM Sigurdur Ingi Johannsson . . PM Bjarni Benediktsson ...... In de pend ence-led coali tion . . . Re pub li can/par lia men tary . . . Elec tions, Oct. 29, 2016 Iceland ...... Apr. 7, 2016 .....PM Sig. Davíð Gunnlaugsson. . . PM Sigurdur Ingi Johannsson....Coali tion ...... Re pub li can/parlia men tary . . . PM re signed, Apr. 7, 2016 Iran ...... May 20, 2017 ....Pres. Hasan Rouhani ...... Pres. Hasan Rouhani ...... MDP...... Theocra tic repub lic ...... Pres i den tial elec tions, May 19, 2017 Ire land ...... Jun. 14, 2017 ....PM Enda Kenny ...... PM Leo Varadkar ...... Fine Gael...... Re pub li can/par lia men tary . . . PM Kenny resigned Ireland ...... May 6, 2016 .....PM Enda Kenny ...... PM Enda Kenny ...... Fine Gael-led co ali tion .....Re pub li can/par lia men tary . . . Elec tions, Feb. 25, 2016 It aly...... Jun. 1, 2018 .....PM Paolo Gentiloni ...... PM Giuseppe Conte...... M5S/Lega ...... Re pub li can/par lia men tary . . . Elec tions, Mar. 4, 2018 It aly...... Dec. 11, 2016 ....PM Matteo Renzi...... PM Paolo Gentiloni...... Demo cr atic...... Re pub li can/parlia mentary . . . PM Matteo Renzi re signed Dec. 5, 2016 Ja maica ...... Mar. 2016 ...... PM Portia Simpson-Miller ....PM An drew Holness ...... JLP...... Const. mon ar chy/parlt. ....Gen eral elec tions, Feb. 25, 2016 Ja pan...... Oct, 23, 2017.....PM Shinzo Abe ...... PM Shinzo Abe...... LDP-led co ali tion...... Const. mon ar chy/parlt. ....Gen eral elec tions, Oct. 22, 2017 Jordan ...... Jun. 4, 2018 .....PM Hani Mulki...... PM Omar al-Razzaz...... —...... Cosnt. monar chy/parlt. ....PM Mulki res., Jun. 4, 2018 Jordan ...... May 29, 2016 ....PM Abdullah Ensour ...... PM Hani Mulki ...... None ...... Const. mon ar chy/parlt.....PM Ensour term exp. Kenya ...... Nov. 28, 2017 ....Pres. Uhuru Kenyatta...... Pres. Uhuru Kenyatta ...... Ju bi lee...... Re publi can/pres i den tial ....Elec tions, Oct. 26, 2017 Ko rea (RoK)...... May 2017 ...... Act. Pres. Hwang Kyo-ahn ....Pres. Moon Jae-in ...... DP...... Re pub li can/par lia men tary . . . Elec tion, May 9, 2017 Ko rea (RoK)...... Mar. 10, 2017 ....Pres. Park Geun-hye ...... Act. Pres. Hwang Kyo-ahn .....Saenuri ...... Re pub li can/par lia men tary . . . Pres. Park re moved by Const. Court Ko rea (RoK)...... Dec. 9, 2016 .....Pres. Park Geun-hye ...... Act. Pres. Hwang Kyo-ahn .....Saenuri ...... Re pub li can/par lia men tary . . . Pres. Park im peached Ko rea (RoK)...... Nov. 2, 2016 .....PM Hwang Kyo-ahn ...... PM-des ig nate Kim Byong-joon . . . Saenuri ...... Re pub li can/parlia men tary . . . Pres. dismissed PM Hwang Lat via ...... Feb. 11, 2016 ....PM Laimdota Straujuma .....PM Maris Kucinskis...... Greens & Farm ers led co alition. Repub li can/parlt...... Parlt. appr. new Govt. Leba non ...... Oct. 31, 2016.....Pres. Michel Suleiman ...... Pres. Michel Aoun ...... FPM...... Re pub li can/par lia men tary . . . Parlt. elected M. Aoun Le sotho...... Jun. 16, 2017 ....PM Pakalitha Mosisili ...... PM Thomas Motsoahae Thabane . . ABC ...... Const. Mon ar chy/parlt. ....Elec tions, Jun. 3, 2017 Li be ria...... Jan. 23, 2018 ....Pres. Ellen John son Sirleaf ....Pres. George Weah...... CDC...... Repub li can/pres i den tial ....Pres. elections, Dec. 26, 2017 Mad a gas car ...... Jun. 4, 2018 .....PM Olivier Mahafaly ...... PM Chris tian Ntsay ...... In de pend ent...... Re pub li can/parlia men tary . . . PM re signed Jun. 4, 2018 Mad a gas car ...... Apr. 10, 2016 ....PM Jean Ravelonarivo ...... PM Olivier Mahafaly...... In de pend ent...... Re pub li can/parlia mentary . . . PM re signed Apr. 8, 2016 Malay sia ...... May 10, 2018 ....PM Najib Ab dul Razak ...... PM Mahathir bin Mohamad .....Pakatan Harapan ...... Const. Mon ar chy ...... Elec tions, May 9, 2018 Malay sia ...... Dec. 13, 2016 ....HM Sul tan Badlishah...... HM Sul tan Mu ham mad V ...... Mon ar chy ...... Const. Mon ar chy ...... King's 5-yr term exp. Malta ...... Jun. 4, 2017 .....PM Jo seph Mus cat ...... PM Jo seph Mus cat...... PL...... Re pub li can/par lia men tary . . . Elec tions, Jun. 3, 2017 Mex ico...... Dec. 1, 2018 .....Pres. Enrique Peña Nieto.....Pres. Andrés Manuel López Obrador MORENA...... Repub li can/pres i den tial ....Pres. elections, Jul. 1, 2018 Montenegro ...... Apr. 2018 ...... Pres. Filip Vujanovic ...... Pres. Milo Ðukanovic...... OB...... Re pub li can/par lia men tary . . . Elec tions, Apr. 15, 2018 Myanmar ...... Mar. 28, 2018 ....Pres. Htin Kyaw ...... Pres. Win Myint ...... NLD...... Pres i den tial/par lia men tary. . . Pres. re signed; new Pres. apptd. Myanmar ...... Apr. 7, 2016 .....Did not exist...... State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi . NLD ...... Pres i den tial/par lia men tary. . . Post cre ated by Parlt. Apr. 7, 2016 Myanmar ...... Apr. 1, 2016 .....Pres. Thein Sein ...... Pres. Htin Kyaw ...... NLD...... Pres i den tial/par lia men tary. . . Parlt. elected Pres. Mar. 14, 2016 Ne pal...... May 25, 2017 ....PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal ....Act. PM Sher Ba ha dur Deuba ....NCP/co ali tion ...... Fed eral dem o cratic re pub lic. . PM Dahal re signed Ne pal...... Aug. 4, 2016 .....PM Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli . . PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal ...... Mao ist...... Fed eral dem o cratic re pub lic. . PM Oli resigned Jul. 24, 2016 New Zealand ...... Oct. 27, 2017.....PM S. W. “Bill” Eng lish .....Jacinda Ardern ...... Labour-led co ali tion ...... Const. mon ar chy/parlt. ....Elec tions, Sep. 23, 2017 New Zealand ...... Dec. 12, 2016 ....PM John Key ...... PM S. W. “Bill” Eng lish ...... NP-led co ali tion ...... Const. mon ar chy/parlt. ....PM Key announced resig. Dec. 4, 2016 New Zealand ...... Sep. 14, 2016 ....Gov.-Gen. Sir Jerry Mateparae . . Gov.-Gen. Dame Patsy Reddy....NA...... Const. mon ar chy/parlt. ....Gov.-Gen. Mateparae term expired Pa ki stan ...... Aug. 2018 ...... PM Shahid Khaqan Abbasi ....PM elect Imran Khan ...... PTI...... Re pub li can/par lia men tary . . . Elec tions, Jul. 25, 2018 Pa ki stan ...... Aug. 1, 2017 .....PM Mu ham mad Nawaz Sharif . . Shahid Khaqan Abassi ...... PML-N...... Re pub li can/parlia men tary . . . Su preme Court re moved PM Jul. 28, 2017 Papua New Guinea .....Aug. 2, 2017 .....PM Peter O’Neill...... PM Peter O’Neill ...... PNC...... Const. mon ar chy/parlt. ....Elec tions, Jun. 24-Jul. 8, 2017 Par a guay...... Aug. 10, 2018 ....Pres. Horacio Manuel Cartes Jara. Pres. Mario Abdo Benítez...... Col o rado ...... Repub li can/pres i den tial ....Elec tion, Apr. 21, 2018 Peru ...... Mar. 23, 2018 ....Pres. Pedro Pablo Kuczynski . . . Pres. Martín A. Vizcarra Cornejo . . PKK ...... Re publi can/pres i den tial ....Pres. Kuczynski res. Mar. 22, 2018 Peru ...... Jul. 28, 2016 .....Pres. Ollanta Moises Humala . . . Pres. Pedro Pablo Kuczynski ....PKK...... Re publi can/pres i den tial ....Elec tions, Jun. 5, 2016 Phil ip pines...... Jun. 30, 2016 ....Pres. Benigno S. Aquino III....Pres. Rodrigo Duterte...... PDP-Laban...... Re publi can/pres i den tial ....Elec tions, May 9, 2016 Portu gal ...... Mar. 9, 2016 .....Pres. Aníbal Cavaco Silva ....Pres. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. . . PSD ...... Re pub li can/par lia men tary . . . Elec tion, Jan. 24, 2016 Russia ...... May 7, 2018 .....Pres. Vladi mir Putin ...... Pres. Vladi mir Putin ...... All-Russia People’s Front....Re pub li can/par lia men tary . . . Pres. elec tions Mar. 18, 2018 Rwanda ...... Aug. 2017 ...... Pres. Paul Kagame...... Pres. Paul Kagame ...... RPF...... Repub li can/pres i den tial ....Elec tions, Aug. 4, 2017 Serbia ...... May 31, 2017 ....Pres. Tomislav Nikolic ...... Pres. Aleksandar Vucic ...... SNS...... Re pub li can/par lia men tary . . . Elec tions, Apr. 2, 2017 Serbia ...... Apr. 24, 2016 ....PM Aleksandar Vucic ...... PM Aleksandar Vucic...... SNS...... Re pub li can/par lia men tary . . . Elec tions, Apr. 24, 2016 Si erra Le one ...... Apr. 4, 2018 .....Pres. Ernest Bai Koroma .....Pres. Jul ius Maada Bio ...... SLPP...... Repub li can/pres i den tial ....Elec tion run-off Mar. 31, 2018 Sin ga pore ...... Sep. 14, 2017 ....Pres. Tony Tan Keng Yam ....Pres. Halimah Yacob ...... None...... Re pub li can/par lia men tary . . . Un op posed Pres. elec tions, Sep. 11, 2017 So ma lia...... Feb. 22, 2017 ....Pres. Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. . Pres. Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo . NA ...... Repub li can/pres i den tial ....Pres. election, Feb. 7, 2017 South Af rica ...... Feb. 15, 2018 ....Pres. Ja cob Zuma ...... Pres. Cyril Ramaphosa ...... ANC...... Re publi can/pres i den tial ....Zuma res., Feb. 14, 2018; Parlt. el. Ramaphosa Spain ...... Jun. 1, 2018 .....PM Mariano Rajoy ...... PM Pedro Sánchez Pérez-Castejón . PSOE ...... Const. Mon ar chy/parlt. ....Vote of No-Conf. in PP, Jun. 2018 Spain...... Oct. 31, 2016.....Act. PM Mariano Rajoy...... PM Mariano Rajoy ...... PP-led co ali tion ...... Const. Mon ar chy/parlt. ....Elec tions, Jun. 26, 2016 Thai land ...... Oct. 13, 2016.....King Bhumibol Adulyadej ....Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn . NA ...... Const. Mon ar chy/parlt. ....King died, Oct. 13, 2016 Turkey ...... Jul. 9, 2018 .....Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdogan . . . Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdogan ....AKP...... Re pub li can/Pres i den tial ....Elec tions, Jun. 24, 2018 Turkey ...... May 21, 2016 ....PM Ahmet Davutoglu ...... PM Binali Yildirim ...... AKP...... Re pub li can/Parlia men tary . . . PM Davutoglu re signed May 4, 2016 Uganda ...... Mar. 2016 ...... Pres. Yoweri Kaguta Museveni . . Pres. Yoweri Kaguta Museveni . . . NRM ...... Re publi can/pres i den tial ....Elec tions, Feb. 18, 2016 United King dom ...... Jun. 8, 2017 .....PM Theresa May...... PM Theresa May ...... Con ser va tive...... Const. Mon ar chy/Parlt. ....Gen. Elec tions, Jun. 8, 2017 United King dom ...... Jul. 13, 2016 .....Act ing PM Da vid Cameron ....PM Theresa May ...... Con ser va tive...... Const. Mon ar chy/Parlt. ....PM Cameron resigned, Jul. 24, 2016 United St. of Amer ica....Jan. 20, 2017 ....Pres. Barack Obama ...... Pres. Don ald J. Trump ...... Re publi can ...... Re publi can/pres i den tial ....Elec tions, Nov. 8, 2016 Uzbekistan ...... Sep. 2, 2016 .....Pres. Islam Karimov ...... Act. Pres. Shavkat Mirziyayev ....XDP/NDP...... Re public/pres i den tial .....Pres. Karimov died Sep. 2, 2016 Vene zuela ...... May 20, 2018 ....Pres. Nicolas Maduro ...... Pres. Nicolas Maduro...... United So cial ist Party ...... Re public/pres i den tial .....Elec tion, May 20, 2018 Viet nam ...... Apr. 7, 2016 .....PM Nguyen Tan Dung ...... PM Nguyen Xuân Phúc ...... Commu nist Party ...... Repub lic/par lia men tary ....Party Con gress dec. Jan. 28, 2016 Western Sahara ...... May 31, 2016 ....Pres. Mohamed Abdelaziz ....Act. Pres. Khatri Addouh ...... POLISARIO ...... Au toc racy in ex ile...... Pres. Abdelaziz died Zam bia...... Sep. 30, 2016 ....Pres. Ed gar Lungu ...... Pres. Ed gar Lungu ...... PF...... Repub li can/pres i den tial ....Elec tion, Aug. 11, 2016 Zim ba bwe ...... Aug. 12, 2018 ....Pres. Emmerson Mnangagwa. . . Pres. Emmerson Mnangagwa ....ZANU-PF...... Repub li can/pres i den tial ....Elec tion, Jul. 30, 2018 Zim ba bwe ...... Nov. 24, 2017 ....Pres. Rob ert Mugabe...... Pres. Emmerson Mnangagwa ....ZANU-PF...... Repub li can/pres i den tial ....Pres. Mugabe re signed, Nov. 21, 2017

8, 2018 defense & foreign affairs strategic policy 17. merson Mnangagwa (ZANU-PF) declared the winner by a small margin (50.8 percent of the vote; 2,460,463 Key Transitions votes). However, the leading opposition candidate, Nelson Chamisa, of MDC Alliance, (44.3 percent of the vote; 2,147,436 votes) said that the results would be Colom bia: Pres. Iván Duque Márquez, 42, was maintain ing calm. Polls closed at 18.00 hrs on July 25, challenged in court, and declared the election win a sworn into the Presi dency of Co lom bia on August 7, 2018, and first results had been promised by 19.00 hrs, “coup against [the popular] will”. Pres. Mnangagwa, 2018, at the Plaza de Bo livar in Bogotá at 15.00hrs, and but that deadline passed without any initial results. The who had won a full five-year term after completing less became the coun try’s youn gest Presi dent for more election was for 272 seats in the National Assem bly and than a year of former Pres. Robert Mugabe’s term, said than a century. Vice-Presi dent Marta Lucía Ramírez, a total of 577 seats in the four provin cial assem blies; that he would be President for all Zimbabweans, the first woman elected to the post and a Sena tor since each being elected for a five-year term. There were including “those who voted for me and those who did 2006 and Minis ter of National Defense in 2002 and 12,500 candi dates for the federal and provin cial seats. not”. Mr Chamisa conceded that the MDC Alliance 2003, was also sworn into office. She had served as the The Election Commis sion of Paki stan had estab lished had lost the Parliamentary vote, winning only 63 sixth Minis ter of Foreign Trade from 1998 to 2002. The 83, 307 poll ing stations, 17,000 of them had been de- parliamentary seats to ZANU-PF’s 145. The National Presi dent imme di ately announced his new Cabi net: clared as sen sitive. It had set up 23, 424 poll ing sta tions Patriotic Front won the two remaining seats in the Pres i dent: ...... Iván Duque Márquez for male vot ers and 21,707 for female vot ers. There 210-seat National Assembly. H Vice-Pres i dent: ...... Marta Lucía Ramírez Blanco were some 53,000 inter na tional, national and lo cal ob- Minis ter of Agri cul ture: ...... Andrés Valen cia Minis ter of Defense: ...... Guillermo Botero servers, and media person nel moni tor ing the elections. Minis ter of Finance: ...... Alberto Carrasquilla A bomb at tack, claimed by DI’ISH, killed at least 31 Minis ter of Inte rior: ...... Nancy Pa tri cia Gutiérrez people and injured 35 others in the outskirts of Quetta, Minis ter of Commerce, Indus try & Tourism:. . José Manuel Restrepo the Baluchistan capi tal, on election day. Earlier in July Change in Korea Minis ter of Foreign Affairs: ...... Carlos Holmes 2018, a suicide bomber killed 149 people (includ ing the Minis ter of Mines and Energy: ...... María Fernanda Suárez Contin ued from Page 20 Minis ter of Transport: ...... An gel María Orozco parlia men tary candi date) at a rally in Mastung, Minis ter of Envi ron ment: ...... Ricardo Lozano Baluchistan, an at tack also claimed by DI’ISH. South Ko rean ex perts have al ready pre sented con crete plans Minis ter of Housing: ...... Jon a than Malagón Early election results, when they began to come in, Min is ter of Cul ture: ...... Carmen Vásquez and stud ies cov er ing these is sues. “It is the goal to hold ground - Minis ter of Work: ...... Alicia Arango showed an ini tial slight lead for Imran Khan’s PTI, but break ing cer emo nies within this year for the reconnection of rail- Min is ter of Jus tice: ...... Glo ria María Borrero it seemed that nei ther his party nor PML-N would gain roads and roads as agreed to in the Panmunjom Dec la ra tion. The Minis ter of Technol ogy: ...... Silvia Constain a clear major ity in the Na tional Assem bly. There was reconnection of rail roads and roads is the be gin ning of mu tual Minis ter of Edu ca tion: ...... María Victo ria Angulo then a brief lull in report ing of bal lot counts, leading to pros per ity on the Ko rean Pen in sula,” Pres. Moon said. Minis ter of Health: ...... Juan Pablo Uribe charges from all sides of possible tamper ing. By July 26, Gam bia, The: Pres. Adama Barrow of The Gambia Beijing is enthu si as tic about the latest devel op ments on the 2018, incom plete counting showed that PTI had won Korean Penin sula, partic u larly the prospects of the Septem ber an nounced on June 29, 2018, after a series of protests 105 of the National Assem bly constit u en cies, PML-N led by an umbrella group called “Enough is Enough” 2018 Kim-Moon summit in Pyongyang. had won 54; PPP had 33; oth ers from smaller par ties How ever, Beijing was also ap pre hensive about the ex tent of over debt and corrup tion issues, that Ousainou had 32; and 48 remained to be counted. It was enough Darboe, the head of the United Dem o cratic Party, had for PTI leader Imran Khan to claim victory and the the chal lenges ahead and par tic ularly the extent of US op po si - been named as the new Vice-Pesident, re plac ing right to form a new govern ment. He noted: “I think tion. “The big gest chal lenge to the in fra struc ture pro ject is the Fatoumata Jallow Tambajang who was “re de ployed this has been the clearest, fairest election Paki stan has US, which wants to main tain eco nomic sanc tions on Pyong yang into the foreign service”. Darboe was among more ever had.” PML-N, however, rejected the election to force the coun try to give up its nu clear weap ons,” Hu Weijia than a dozen polit i cal prison ers who had been detained results outright. wrote in The Global Times. af ter pro tests against then-Pres. Yahya Jammeh and re - Final election results on the night of July 27, 2018, “We don’t think Se oul can per suade Wash ing ton to change leased in Decem ber 2016 after Jammeh lost the election showed that PTI had won 116 seats in the Na tional As- its strat egy on North Ko rea. Al though Moon has in vited Wash- to Barrow. Pres. Barrow also said that Momodou Tan- sembly and taken 16.86-mil lion votes (total seats rose ing ton to join the rail way pro ject by creat ing a north-east Asian gara, who had served under Jammeh, had been named to 149 with al lo cated seats for women and mi nor ities). rail road commu nity with six coun tries includ ing the US, Wash- Minis ter of Foreign Affairs. The Cabi net reshuf fle fol- PTI spokes man Iftikhar Durrani said that PTI allied ington is unlikely to uncon di tion ally accept the olive branch lowed the res igna tion of the Police Commis sioner fol- par ties had 11 seats, and that 13 in de pend ent MNAs Moon has ex tended.” low ing the death of three protest ers during clashes with were prepared to work with PTI to form the Govern - Hu Weijia said that the PRC and Russia supported the pro- the police on June 18, 2018. Pres. Barrow also dis - ment. Imran Khan was expected to take the oath as posal to link rail way net works in north-east Asia via North Ko rea. missed Agri cul ture Minis ter Omar Jallow, who was Prime Minis ter “before Inde pend ence Day” (August “The US has a ma jor stake in re solv ing the Ko rean Pen in sula is - bat tling cor rup tion al le ga tions, and Youth Min is ter 14, 2018); however that was later moved to Au gust 18, sue, but that is sue can hardly be re solved with out a re duc tion or Henry Gomez and Com mu ni ca tion Min is ter Demba 2018. Over all voter turn out was 52 per cent, compared with drawal of US troops from South Ko rea. Whether South Korea Jawo, both of whom were criti cized for being incom pe - with 55 percent for the 2013 election. Meanwhile, PPP can achieve peace and denuclearization on the Ko rean Pen in - tent. The Cab inet was now as fol lows: co-chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari said that he would Minis ter of Finance and Economic Affairs: ...... Mambury Njie sula de pends on Se oul’s courage and sin cer ity.” Minis ter of Agri cul ture: ...... Lamin N. Dibba sit on the op posi tion benches. Alle gations of vote rig- Also in mid-Au gust 2018, Beijing ad vanced the prepa ra - Minis ter of Foreign Affairs and ging were supported when it was revealed in the media tions for the major visit to Pyong yang by Pres. Xi Jinping. On Gam bi ans Abroad: ...... Momodou Tangara that five empty ballot boxes and more than a dozen Sep tem ber 9, 2018, he was to be Kim Jong-Un’s guest of honor Minis ter of Lands and Regional Govern ment: ....Musa Drammeh vot ing pa pers had been found along side roads in Minis ter of Trade and Regional Inte gra tion: .....Ama dou Sanneh in the cele bra tions of the 70th anni ver sary of the es tab lish ment Minis ter of Youths and Sports:...... Hadrammeh Sidibeh Karachi and Sialkot. Despite that, the elections were of North Ko rea. Beijing planned the upcom ing visit by Xi to Minis ter of Heath and Social Welfare: ...... Isatou Touray, Dr widely regarded as having been the most open and fair Pyong yang as a clear en dorse ment of the bi lat eral inter-Ko rean India: Atal Bihari Vajpayee, 93, Prime Minis ter in Paki stan’s history. rapproche ment as pushed by Kim Jong-Un and Moon Jae-In. (Bharatiya Janata Party: BJP) of India from March 19, Soma lia: Prime Minis ter Hassan Ali Khayre of So- Mean while, the Kremlin also en cour ag ed Se oul and Pyong - 1998, to May 22, 2004, died on August 16, 2018, in New malia in early August 2018 made six new minis te rial yang to per se vere with their bilat eral rapproche ment . Delhi. Mr Vajpayee, a dia betic, died at the All In dia In- ap point ments to his cab inet, with four min isters, one The main venue was an ex change of mes sages be tween stitute of Medi cal Sciences after being admit ted there state minis ter and one deputy minis ter. Abdullahi Pres. Vladi mir Putin and “Su preme Leader Kim Jong-Un” which Godah Barre was appointed Minis ter of Edu ca tion; on June 11, 2018, with a kidney tract in fection and in cluded a Rus sian in vi ta tion for an ur gent sum mit meet ing with other ailments. Sheikh Noor Mohamed Hassan, Minis ter of Reli gious Af fairs; Hussein Sheikh Mohamud Hussein, Min is ter Pres. Putin. This lat est in vi ta tion came on top an ear lier in vi ta tion Paki stan: Vot ers went to the polls in Pa kistani gen - by Pres. Putin to the an nual eco nomic fo rum to be held in eral elections on July 25, 2018, in what was to be Paki - of Livestock; and Abdullahi Badhan Warsame, Minis - ter of Fisher ies and Marine Resources. Abdikadir Vladivostok in Sep tem ber 2018. At the time, Pyong yang com - stan’s second election transfer ring polit i cal power mitted to hold ing a sum mit be fore the end of 2018. from one elected govern ment to the next. Some Sheikh Ali became State Min ister for the Presi dent; and 105.95-million voters were eli gi ble to exer cise their Shawaqar Ibrahim Abdalla, Deputy Minis ter of Labor. On Au gust 15, 2018, Kim Jong-Un sent a mes sage to Pres. right of franchise in the country’s 11th general election. Zimba bwe: Zimbabweans went to the polls on July Putin on the oc ca sion of the 73rd an ni ver sary of the lib er ation of More than two dozen parties were in the race but a 30, 2018, for the first Presi den tial ballot to be held with- Ko rea by the So viet Armed Forces and Ko rean com mu nist fight - close contest had been expected between Imran Khan’s out former Pres. Robert Mugabe’s name. Voter turn - ers. The same day, Pres. Putin sent “Su preme Leader Kim Jong- Paki stan Tehrik-e-Insaaf (PTI) and Shebaz Sharif-led out was unprec e dented, esti mated at between 75 and Un” a congrat u la tory message. Pa ki stan Mus lim League-Nawaz (PML-N) in most 80 percent of regis tered voters, but the count was not Thus, both Beijing and Moscow had commit ted to encour - constit u en cies. The Paki stan People’s Party (PPP) was ex pected to be con cluded for almost a week, with of fi- ag ing Se oul and Pyong yang to ig nore the impasse with Wash- also expected to retain its seats in Sindh, where it faced cial results scheduled to be released on August 4, 2018 ington over denuclearization, and in stead imple ment the dra - a strong chal lenge from a grand alli ance of oppo si tion (in for mal re sults were ex pected to be known, how ever, matic break out in the form of inter-Ko rean trans por ta tion and en - parties, but at a national level PPP was greatly re duced by August 2, 2018). The race appeared to come down to ergy pro jects and their in te gra tion into the Eur asian BRI. from its former standing. In Karachi, MQP-Paki stan, the front runners, incum bent Pres. Em erson Mnan- The north-east Asian rail road commu nity of the six coun tries PTI, Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal Pa ki stan (MMA), PPP gagwa (ZANU-PF) and House of As sem bly member of East Asia as pro posed by Moon Jae-In could in deed transform and PSP were in a tight race. The election was marred Nelson Chamisa (MDC Al liance), although there were the en tire region and in te grate Kim Jong-Un’s DPRK into the by signif i cant terror ist vi o lence, both in the run-up to a to tal of 23 candidates contesting for the Presidency. family of nations. the day and dur ing elec tion day it self, de spite the fact Results for the Presidential race were announced on Left to be seen, though, is how Washing ton would re act to that 370,000 Army person nel supported the Po lice in August 3, 2018, with incumbent, transitional Pres. Em- the ensu ing marginalization of the US. n

18. defense & foreign affairs strategic policy 8, 2018 8, 2018 Arms Trans fer Tables Signifi cant Recent Inter na tional Transfers of De fense Goods and Services since December 1, 2017

Ac quir ing Coun try Sys tem Item Manu fac turer/Sup plier From Qty. Cost, US$/UK£ Status Alge ria...... Ar til lery ...... SR5 multi ple-launch rocket sys tem (MLRS), 6x6 wheeled chas sis, del. in 2017 ...... Norinco ...... PRC...... NA...... NA...... Confirmed (Janu ary 2018) Argen tina ...... Vessels...... Adroit/Gowind-class OPV-90 pa trol ves sels...... DCNS...... France ...... 4 ...... NA...... Agreed (April 2018) Aus tra lia ...... Vehi cles ...... MAN me dium and heavy trucks, plus 872 modules and 812 trail ers (fol low-on or der)...... Rheinmetall MAN ...... Ger many/Austria ...... 1,044...... A$1.4bn...... Ordered (July 2018) Aus tra lia ...... Vessels...... Type 26 (Hunter-class) frigates for build in Aus tra lia ...... BAE...... UK-Aus tra lia ...... 9 ...... A$35bn ...... Selected (June 2018) Aus tra lia ...... UAVs...... MQ-4C Tri ton mar i time vari ant Global Hawk...... Northrop Grumman ...... US...... 6...... A$1.4bn...... Or dered (June 2018) Aus tra lia ...... Armor...... Boxer 8x8 IFV/CRV, to be built in Aus tra lia, re plac ing ASLAVs ...... Rheinmetall ...... Germany ...... 211...... A5.2bn...... Agreed (March 2018); contr. (August 2018) Bah rain ...... Heli cop ters ...... Bell AH-1Z Cobra attack helos (12); spares; 14 AGM-114 Hell fire AGMs; 56 APKWS-II WGU-59B ...... Bell/GE ...... US...... 12...... $911.4m ...... Approved (April 2018) Ban gla desh...... Aircraft...... Ad di tional K-8W jet train ers...... CATIC...... PRC...... 8 ...... NA...... Con tracted (June 2018) Ban gla desh...... Aircraft...... ex-RAF C-130J Her cu les trans ports, plus ser vic ing ...... RAF/LM/Marshalls ...... UK...... 2 ...... NA...... Trans ferred (May 2018) Brazil ...... Simu la tors ...... S-70B Seahawk sim ula tors (op. flight trainer and weap ons tac tics trainer) for Bra zil ian Navy ...... CAE...... US...... 2...... NA...... Contracted (March 2018) Brazil ...... Aircraft...... Ad di tional C295 SAR twin-turbo props (total now 12)...... Airbus/CASA...... Spain...... 3 ...... NA...... Ordered (Janu ary 2018) Brazil ...... Vessel...... Ex-Royal Navy helo car rier HMS Ocean (LPH) ...... ex-RN ...... UK...... 1 ...... £84m...... Pur chase au tho rized (De cem ber 2017) Can ada ...... Aircraft...... Ex-RAAF F/A-18A/B Hor net fight ers, del. start ing first half 2019 ...... RAAF/Boe ing ...... Aus tra lia ...... 18...... NA...... Agreed (De cem ber 2017) China (PRC) ...... Air De fense ...... S-400 Triumf long-range AD sys tems, first reg i men tal set ...... Rostec ...... Rus sia ...... 1st rgt...... NA...... Initial del. (April 2018) China (ROC) ...... Armor...... M-1A2 Abrams MBT ...... General Dynam ics ...... US...... 108...... $990m...... Requested (July 2018) Croatia ...... Aircraft...... F-16D/E (ex-Is raeli Air Force) ...... Lockheed Mar tin/IAF...... Israel ...... 12...... c$500m...... Agreed (March 2018) Ecua dor...... Air craft...... M28 STOL twin-tur bo prop trans port, for del. late 2018 ...... Sikorsky/PZL Mielec ...... Po land...... 1 ...... NA...... Ordered (May 2018) Finland ...... Mis siles ...... SSM2020/Gabriel anti-ship for Hamina-class and Squad ron 2020-class ships and shore bat ter ies ...... IAI...... Israel ...... NA...... €162m ...... Ordered (July 2018) Germany ...... UAVs...... Heron TP MALE AUVs (leased) ...... IAI...... Israel ...... 5 ...... $1.04-billion ...... Requested (May 2018) Germany ...... Aircraft...... C-130J-30 and KC-130J plus spares ...... Lockheed Mar tin ...... US...... 3+3...... $1.4bn...... Approved (May 2018) Germany ...... UAS...... MQ-4C Triton UAS, 1 mission control stn, 1 Main Op. Base, 1 FOB ...... Northrop-Grumman...... US...... 4...... $2,5bn...... Approved (April 2018) Greece ...... Aircraft...... Up grade 85 F-16 Block 52+ and Block 52+Adv to F-16V Block 72 status ...... Northrop Grumman/HAL ...... US, Greece ...... 85...... <$1.45bn ...... Approved (April 30, 2018) Hun gary ...... Heli cop ters ...... H145M armed helo ...... Airbus...... France ...... 20...... NA...... Or dered (June 2018) India...... He li cop ters ...... AH-64E Apache at tack plus spares, and Hell fire Longbow, Hell fire, and Stinger mis siles ...... Boeing ...... US...... 6...... $930m...... Approved (June 2018) India...... Ves sels...... Ad di tional Krivak III frigates (Upgraded Krivak III class); 2 for lo cal build ...... Yantar, GSL...... Rus sia, In dia ...... 4 ...... $3bn ...... Agreed terms (Feb ruary 2018) India...... Mis siles ...... Barak shipboard AD/AM...... Rafael ...... Israel ...... 131...... $72.1m ...... Ordered (Janu ary 2018) India...... Ordnance ...... Preci sion-guided muni tions (airborne) ...... Rosonboron ...... Rus sia ...... 240...... $196.6m ...... Ordered (Janu ary 2018)) Indo ne sia...... Air craft...... Su-35S multi-rôle fight ers for del. comm. Aug. 2018 ...... UAC...... Rus sia ...... 11...... $1.14bn...... Con tracted (Feb ru ary 2018) Iraq...... Armor...... Init. del. of 10 of 73 T-90S/SK MBTs and possi bly 10 BMP-3 IFVs ...... Uralvagonzavod...... Rus sia ...... NA...... NA...... Del. (Febru ary 2018) Jamaica ...... Heli cop ters ...... 3 Bell 429 utility (2 del. Aug. 2014; 3rd del. 2019)...... Bell...... US...... 3...... NA...... Del. (August 2018) Japan...... Air De fense ...... Aegis bal lis tic mis sile de fense sta tion (Aegis Ashore) ra dar for 2 bat ter ies; 1st of 2 pro posed ...... Lockheed Mar tin ...... US...... 1...... $1.2bn...... Selected (July 2018) de fense &for eign af Japan...... He li cop ter ...... Addit. Airbus H225 trans port for Coast Guard...... Airbus Hel...... France ...... 1 ...... NA...... Ordered (April 2018) Jor dan ...... Heli cop ters ...... Mi-26T heavy lift helos ...... Rus sian Hel...... Rus sia ...... 4 ...... NA...... Deliv er ies un der way (April 2018) Jor dan ...... Heli cop ters ...... UH-60 Black Hawks for RJAF and QRF...... Sikorsky...... US...... 12...... $470m...... Del. compl. (Jan uary 2018) Jor dan ...... Vehi cles ...... Zetros 2733A 6x6 trucks (20), Zetros 1833 4x4 trucks (50); other...... Mercedes-Benz...... Germany ...... 120...... Aid...... Deliv ered (Janu ary 2018) Jor dan ...... Armor...... 2nd batch of 25 Marder 1A3 IFVs, ex-Bundeswehr; modern ized. Del. 1st qtr 2018 ...... Rheinmetall ...... Germany ...... 25...... €17m...... Con tracted (De cem ber 2017) Kazakhstan ...... Aircraft...... Ad di tional Sukhoi Su-30SM multirôle fighters (18 al ready or dered; some del.); + add. Mi-35M helos...... Sukhoi, Mil ...... Rus sia ...... 16, NA ...... NA...... Reported agreed (March 2018) Kenya ...... Aircraft...... C-27J Spar tan transports (3) for del. 2019, plus unspec. num ber of AW139 he li cop ters ...... Leo nardo ...... Italy, UK...... 3, NA...... $198.5m, €51.8m . . . Ordered (July 2018) Kuwait...... Air craft...... F/A-18E (22) and F (6) Super Hornet Block II fighters + options for 12 more ...... Boeing ...... US...... 22+6 ...... $2.67bn...... Requested (Septem ber 2016). Contr. (June 2018) Kuwait...... Air craft...... King Air 350ER intel., surveil., recon. (ISR) plus spares...... Sierra Nevada ...... US...... 4...... $259m...... Ap proved (Feb ru ary 2018) Kuwait...... Ves sels...... Light fast pa trol boats with .50 cal. ar ma ment; spares ...... Kvichak...... US...... 15...... c$100m...... Approved (Feb ru ary 2018) Latvia ...... Heli cop ters ...... UH-60M Black Hawk utility...... Sikorsk y...... US...... 4...... $200m...... Ap proved (August 2018) Latvia ...... Vehi cles ...... 6x6 Out lander MAX 650XT Mil i tary Ver sion ATVs...... BRP...... Finland ...... NA...... €11m...... Or dered (June 2018) Latvia ...... ATGW...... Spike EO-guided ATGWs ...... EuroSpike ...... Germany ...... NA...... $108m euros...... Con tracted (Feb ru ary 2018) Latvia ...... Small Arms ...... G-36 as sault ri fles for Armed Forces, Na tional Guard and Border Guard ...... H&K...... Germany ...... NA...... 13m euro ...... Contracted (Janu ary 2018) fairs stra te gic pol icy pol stra tegic fairs Latvia ...... Comms ...... Follow-on order for tacti cal radios (Falcon II/III) for del. 2019 ...... Har ris ...... US...... NA...... $17m+ ...... Orde red (De cem ber 2017) Lithu a nia ...... Radar...... Short-range surveil lance radars and logis tics ...... Elta...... Israel ...... 5 ...... €2.8m...... Ordered (March 2018) Lux em bourg ...... Heli cop ters ...... H145M multi pur pos e helos for del. be fore end-2019 ...... Airbus...... France ...... 2 ...... NA...... Ordered (July 2018) Mali ...... Aircraft...... A-29 Super Tucano light attack ...... Embraer ...... Brazil ...... 4 ...... NA...... Deliv ered (July 2018) Malay sia ...... Artil lery ...... 105LG1 light towed 105mm towed artil lery; del. 2020 ...... Nexter...... France ...... 18...... NA...... Ordered (April 2018) Ma lay sia ...... Mis siles ...... Naval Strike Mis siles (NSM) for Gowind-class corvettes abuilding...... Kongsberg ...... Norway ...... NA...... €124m ...... Ordered (April 2018) Mexico ...... Mis siles ...... 6 Evolved Seasparrow tacti cal missiles (ESSM); 2 ES telem etry mis siles; 1 Mk56 VSL 8-cell launcher; 8 Mk30 can is ters, sup port. . Raytheon...... US...... 6...... $41m...... Agreed (Au gust 2018) Mexico ...... Heli cop ters ...... MH-60R multi-mission helos, plus weapons and spares ...... Lockheed Mar tin ...... US...... 8...... $1.2bn...... Approved (April 2018) Mexico ...... Heli cop ters ...... AS565 MBe Pan ther util ity for Mex. Navy...... Airbus...... France ...... 10...... NA...... Del. com pleted (De cem ber 2017) Morocco...... Ar mor...... Ad di tional M1 Abrams MBTs (162 addit. approved by US Sep. 2017)...... DoD...... US...... 14...... NA...... Deliv ered (April 2018) Myanmar ...... Aircraft...... Su-30 combat aircraft, addi tional items ...... Rosoboronexport...... Rus sia ...... NA...... NA...... Reported (Janu ary 2018) Nepal...... He li cop ter ...... AW139 medium lift ...... AgustaWestland/Le o nardo ...... It aly/UK ...... 1 ...... NA...... Deliv ered (July 2018) Nether lands ...... Artil lery ...... M1156 Preci sion Guidance Kits for 155mm art...... Orb ital ATK ...... US...... 3,500...... $70m...... Approved (April 2018) Nether lands ...... Heli cop ters ...... Upgrade/ remanufactured AH-64D Apache Block II to E config. attack helos, plus spares...... Boeing, LM...... US...... 28...... $1.191bn...... Approved (Feb ru ary 2018) New Zea land ...... Simu la tor ...... CAE700MR Se ries for NH90 helo ...... CAE...... Can ada ...... 1 ...... >C$50m...... Con tracted (Au gust 2018) New Zea land ...... Aircraft...... P-8A Po sei don LRMP plus in fra struc ture, training to replace six Lockheed P-3K2 Orions...... Boeing ...... US...... 4...... $2.346bn...... Ordered (July 2018) Paki stan ...... Heli cop ters ...... T-129 ATAK attack helcioters (li cense-built AW A-129 Mangusta)...... TAI/AgustaWestland ...... Turkey ...... 30...... NA...... Contracted (May 2018) Paki stan ...... Vessels...... 2,300-ton disp. Ada-class ASW cor vettes; 2 for constr. in Pa ki stan ...... MILGEM/KSEW...... Turkey ...... 4 ...... NA...... Agreed (May 2018) Paki stan ...... Heli cop ters ...... Addi tional AW139 for del. early 2019 for SAR/EMS...... Leo nardo ...... Italy...... Unspec...... NA...... Contracted (April 2018) Phil ip pines ...... Vessels...... 12m light patrol vessels plus RPG arma ment ...... PRC Govt...... PRC...... 4...... Aid...... Deliv ered (July 2018) Phil ip pines ...... Aircraft...... Emb raer A-29 Super Tucano light at tack and adv. train ers ...... Embraer ...... Brazil ...... 6 ...... NA...... Orde red (No vem ber 2017) Po land ...... Aircraft...... Ad di tional M-346 train ers, op tion for third batch; plus sup port ...... Leo nardo ...... Italy...... 4 ...... €115m+ ...... Ordered (March 2018) Po land ...... Air De fense ...... Patriot Advanced Capa bil ity-3 (PAC-3) Missile Segment Enhance ment (MSE) mis siles ...... Lockheed Mar tin ...... US...... NA...... NA...... LOA signed (March 2018) Po land ...... Artil lery ...... High Mobil ity Artil lery Rocket System (HIMARS), inc. 16 Guided MLRS, plus ord nance, sup port, etc...... Lockheed Mar tin ...... US...... 16...... $250m...... Ap proved (No vem ber 2017) Qatar...... Air craft...... Hawk advanced jet train ers, plus support; del. 2021 ...... BAE...... UK...... 9 ...... NA...... Or dered (June 2018) Qatar...... He li cop ters ...... NH90 medium multi-role; 16 NH90 TTH for land ops; 12 NH90 NFH for na val; options for fur ther 6+6 mix. Del. 2022-2025...... Leo nardo ...... Italy...... 28...... €3bn...... Contracted (March 2018) Qatar...... Mis siles ...... S-400 Triumf air de fense sys tem ...... Fakel...... Rus sia ...... NA...... NA...... In nego ti a tion (Janu ary 2018) Qatar...... Air craft...... Ty phoon air com bat air craft (20 sin gle-seat; 4 two-seat) ...... BAE/Eurofighter ...... UK+...... 24...... £6bn ...... Contracted (December 2017) Qatar...... Air craft, ar mor ...... 12 addi tional Rafale fighters (24 ordered 2015) + options for 36 more; 490 VBCI armored veh...... Dassault, Nexter ...... France ...... 12, 490 ...... €12bn...... Agreed (De cem ber 2017) Qatar...... Support ...... Tech ni cal sup port and train ing for Qa tar Pa triot Air De fense Sys tem...... Raytheon...... US...... NA...... $150m...... Con tracted (De cem ber 2017) Roma nia...... Ar mor...... Pi ra nha 5 wheeled APC in six configs, for local prod...... Gen.Dyn/Mowag ...... US/Spain...... 227...... $1bn ...... Contracted (Janu ary 2018) Roma nia...... Air De fense ...... Pa triot 3+ modern ized fire unit sys tems (inc. 28 M903 launch ers) ...... Raytheon...... US...... $3.9bn...... Contracted (December 2017) Saudi Ara bia ...... Vessels...... Freedom-class Multi-Mission Surface Combat ant Ships ...... Lockheed Mar tin ...... US...... 4...... $6bn ...... Ordered (May 2018) Saudi Ara bia ...... Mis siles ...... TOW 2B (BGM-71F-Se ries) ATGW, inc. BGM-71F-Se ries (6,600) and BGM-71F-Se ries fly-to-buy lot vali da tion missiles (96) ....Raytheon...... US...... 6,600; 96...... $670m...... Approved (March 2018) Saudi Ara bia ...... Support ...... Mis sile sup port for Pa triot Legacy FSP, PAC-3 FSP, and Pa triot ESP; spares ...... Lockheed-Martin/Raytheon ...... US...... NA...... $500m...... Ap proved (Jan u ary 2018) Sene gal ...... Aircraft...... L-39NG light at tack and adv. train ers ...... Aero Vodochody ...... Czech ...... 4 ...... NA...... Ordered (April 2018) Ser bia...... Aircraft...... 4 of pro posed 8 ex-Belarus Air Force MiG-29 fight ers ...... Bel. AF ...... Belarus ...... 4 of 8...... Aid...... Deliv ered (April 2018) Slovakia ...... Aircraft...... F-16V Block 7/72, M61A1 Vulcan Guns, AESA radars, other ...... Lockheed Mar tin ...... US...... 14...... $2.91bn...... Approved (April 2018) Slovenia ...... Armor...... Boxer 8x8 IFV...... Rheinmetall ...... Germany ...... 48...... NA...... Agreed (Febru ary 2018) Spain ...... Heli cop ters ...... CH-47F Chi nook heavy helos, with sup port ...... Boeing ...... US...... 17...... $1.3bn...... Approved (April 2018) Sweden ...... Mis siles ...... Pa triot PAC-3 fire units, plus radars, etc., 200 mis siles ...... Raytheon, LM ...... US...... 4, 200...... $3.2bn...... Ap proved (Feb ru ary 2018) Syria ...... Air De fense ...... S-300 (pos sible) for near-term deliv...... — ...... Rus sia ...... NA...... NA...... Com mit ted (April 2018) Timor-Leste ...... Vessels...... Guardian-class patrol vessels (Pacific Patrol Boat Replace ment) ...... Austal ...... Aus tra lia ...... 2 ...... $22m/Aid...... Confirmed (April 2018) Trin i dad & To bago ...... Vessels...... Cape-class 57.8m patrol ships; del. mid-2020 ...... Austal ...... Aus tra lia ...... 2 ...... A$100m...... Orde red (August 2018) Turkmenistan ...... Mis siles ...... QW-2 MANPADs ...... PRC...... PRC...... NA...... NA...... Deliv ered (2017) Reported Jan. 2018) Ukraine ...... Heli cop ters ...... H145, H125, and H225 utility, for Emerg. Sit. Min., Nat. Guard, Nat. Po lice, Border Serv...... Airbus...... France ...... 55...... NA...... Ordered (March 2018) Ukraine ...... Mis siles ...... Jave lin ATGW for del. mid-2018 ...... US Govt...... US...... NA...... Aid...... Approved (Jan u ary 2018) United King dom ...... Support ...... For MQ-9 Reaper UCAV systems ...... Gen. Atomics ...... US...... NA...... $500m...... Approved (April 2018) United States ...... Mis siles ...... Na val Strike Mis sile (long-range) for USN Lit to ral Com bat Ships; ini tial buy ...... Kongsberg (75%) ...... Norway ...... NA...... $14m<$848m ...... Contracted (May 2018)

19. Zambia ...... Aircraft...... C-27J Spar tan light twin trans port ...... Alenia ...... Italy...... 2 ...... c$90m ...... Ordered (May 2018)

Defense & Foreign Af fairs Strate gic Pol icy, 8, 2018. © Copy right 2018, In terna tional Stra tegic Stud ies As soci a tion. .eno sa :nooM dna miK dna :nooM sa .eno Cur rent Es ti mate Of cur rent sig nif icance By Yossef Bodansky, Senior Edi tor

US Faces Exclusion from the Korean, Silk Road Dynamic here was, by mid-August 2018, a grow ing consen sus be tween the gov - the com ple tion of the inter-Ko rean mil i tary com mu ni ca tion lines and that com mu ni ca tions be tween the two mil i tar ies ernments of the People’s Repub lic of China (PRC), the Demo cratic People’s were fully re stored in ac cor dance with the agreement of June TRepub lic of Korea (DPRK: North Korea), the Repub lic of Ko rea (ROK: South 14, 2018. Dur ing the talks, the North Ko re ans ex pressed hope Ko rea), and the Russian Fed era tion to effec tively side line the United States that Moon and Kim Jong-Un would be able to plant another tree dur ing the forth com ing sum mit in Pyong yang. Moon ex - from the transform ing dynamic of the Ko rean Penin sula strate gic the ater. pressed his en thu si asm. ROK Pres. Moon Jae-In seized the ini tia tive to con sol i dat e ton over the nu clear talks as “a stand off” which could quickly On Au gust 16, 2018, Moon Jae-In de liv ered a ma jor a new re gional order em brac ing Pyong yang while Washing ton erupt. US Secre tary of State Mi chael Pompeo’s efforts to re- speech dur ing a cer emony in central Se oul mark ing Ko rea’s was rel egated to the rôle of an increas ingly ir rel evant ir ri tant. vive the talks on US terms were go ing no where. PRC and in de pend ence from the Jap a nese co lo nial rule of 1910-1945. Both Beijing and Moscow com mit ted to shield ing Seoul and South Ko rean se nior offi cials concurred that the US and the Pres. Moon as serted that inter-Ko rean rec on cil i a tion not only Pyong yang from pos si ble ret ri bu tion by Wash ing ton. DPRK were “dead locked over de tails” of the denuclearization took pre ce dence over the US-DPRK ne go ti a tions, but ac tu ally The Gov ern ment of the ROK had con cluded by June or July time-line, the sta tus of the DPRK’s ballis tic missile and nu - fa cil i tated them. “Ad vanc ing inter-Ko rean re la tions is not a 2018 that there was no al ter native to a break out from the US clear programs, as well as the North Ko rean in ten tions regard - second ary effect from achiev ing prog ress in North Ko rea-US domi na tion of the regional dynamic surround ing the Korean ing the fu ture of its nu clear ar se nal. re la tions. Rather, it is ad vancement in inter-Ko rean re la tions Pen in sula, and de cided to at tempt it. Se oul was ready to Still Sec. Pompeo kept trying to set a sum mit meet ing in that pro vides the en ergy pro mot ing the denuclearization of the shoul der the fi nancial bur den of see ing through this break out. Pyong yang for late Au gust 2018. Washing ton in formed both Ko rean Pen in sula,” Moon said, us ing Kim Jong-Un’s term. Seoul’s deci sion was the result of sophis ti cated entice - Se oul and Pyong yang that “sanc tions will re main in full ef fect “This is borne out by our his tor i cal ex pe ri ence: when ment and prompt ing by Pyong yang, while it saw the grow ing should North Ko rea fail to denuclearize” in accor dance with inter-Ko rean re la tions were good in the past, the North Ko rean ir rel e vance of Wash ing ton to the dy namic un der way. Mean - US terms and diktats . Pyongyang was not coop erat ing and did nu clear threat di min ished and we were able to achieve a while, Pyong yang con tin ued to dem on strate knowl edge as to not even re veal whether Kim Jong-Un would meet Sec. Pom- denuclearization agree ment. … Even if po lit i cal re uni fi ca tion how to appeal to Seoul and rein force Pres. Moon’s commit - peo on his next visit. Washington was persis tent in seeking the re mains far away, true ‘lib er a tion’ for us co mes through es tab - ment. Both Beijing and Mos cow have, not sur pris ingly, next sum mit and co erced Pres. Moon to post pone his planned lish ing peace be tween South and North, freely com ing and cheered Pres. Moon’s initia tive. visit to Pyong yang — a visit which would ben efit North Ko rea go ing and es ti mat ing a sin gle eco nomic com mu nity.” For Al though Pyong yang launched its ini tia tive to win over greatly — un til the sec ond half of Sep tem ber 2018. Moon, the fu ture lies in the “dream of a peace econ omy and an Pres. Moon Jae-In’s Se oul in mid-June 2018, the re gion-wide In re sponse, on Au gust 17, 2018, Pyong yang for mally ac - economic com mu nity.” Moon prom ised that once in Pyong- dis ap point ment with the US pos ture on the Ko rean Pen in sula cused Wash ing ton of “im ped ing inter-Ko rean co op er a tion” in yang he “will help build a re la tion ship based on deeper trust did not burst into the open un til early Au gust 2018. pur suit of its own nar row in ter ests. be tween the two Koreas and si mul ta neously lead efforts to Having failed to move the US into some flexi bil ity, and rec- The DPRK la beled the US as “the root cause of evil” op - pro mote di a logue on denuclearization be tween North Ko rea og niz ing the long-de clared po si tions of the DPRK, Pyong yang press ing the na tional sov er eignty of all Ko re ans through out and the United States.” pub licly ex pressed its dis plea sure and dis ap point ment on Au - the pen in sula. “While we [North Ko re ans] are tak ing pre emp - Se oul wants the revival of joint pro jects agreed dur ing gust 9, 2018. The en tire North Ko rean me dia car ried a lengthy tive measures to achieve a com plete denuclearization on the Pres. Roh Moo-Hyun’s visit to Pyong yang in 2007. For ex am - “Press State ment of Spokes per son for DPRK For eign Min is - Ko rean Pen in sula, the United States is re peat edly mak ing uni - ple, Minis ter of Oceans and Fish er ies Kim Young-Choon pro - try” ac cus ing the US of re neg ing on the com mitments and un - lat eral de mands, in stead of tak ing mea sures com pa ra ble to posed the des ig nation of “a joint fish ing zone on the west ern der stand ing reached in Sin ga pore. ours,” said a commu ni qué of the North Korea’s Pan-Ko rean sea bor der” be tween the North and the South as a first step to - The state ment stressed that while the DPRK started uni lat - Al li ance for Re uni fi ca tion. “The core spirit of the Panmunjom ward cre at ing the “mar i time peace zone” orig i nally en vi sioned eral acts of denuclearization, the US did not un der take re cip ro - dec la ra tion is national sov er eignty. … It is sim ply not pos si - by Roh Moo-Hyun and revived by Moon Jae-In. “Des ig nat ing cal mea sures ei ther in the denuclearization of the Ko rean Pen - ble for the dec la ra tion, co op er a tion with for eign states, and the NLL [North ern Line Limit] as a joint fish ing zone be tween in sula, or in lifting some of the sanc tions. In stead, the US only Amer i can oc cu pation to exist at the same time.” the two Koreas is a differ ent matter from making a mari time kept de mand ing that the DPRK un der take ad di tional uni lat eral Kim Jong-Un joined the crit i cism of the new sanc tions and peace zone,” Kim Young-Choon explained, and both Koreas mea sures. Even when North Ko rean lead ers pro tested the lack threat. During an in spec tion visit to the con struc tion site of the can “hold talks on the mar i time peace zone in the future”. of rec i proc ity, “the US in sisted on its uni lat eral de mand of Wonsan-Kalma coastal tour ist area, Kim Jong-Un attrib uted In mid-Au gust 2018, Pres. Moon an nounced a tar get of ‘denuclearization first’ at the first DPRK-US high-level talks re cent eco nomic and de vel op ment set backs to “an acute “hold ing a ground break ing cer emony within the year” for the held in Pyongyang in early July [2018]”. Nev er the less, the stand off with hos tile forces trying to sti fle the Ko rean peo ple myr iad of bi lat eral and re gional “rail way and road co op er a tion DPRK ful filled its prom ise to re patri ate to the US Korean War through bri gand ish sanctions and block ade” that would be de- pro jects”. He made it clear that he was ad amant on hav ing ir- era US POW/MIA re mains. feated by “a do-or-die strug gle to de fend the pres tige of the re vers ible facts on the ground within less than a year. Pres. How ever, the US and its al lies only kept im pos ing ad di - party and a worth while strug gle for cre at ing the hap pi ness of Moon noted that Item One of the Panmunjom Decla ra tion tional sanc tions on the DPRK and its friends. Worse, the US the peo ple”. com mit ted both Koreas to “recon nect the blood rela tions of was now pres sur ing friendly coun tries “not to send high-level Ul ti mately, the US ef fort to re di rect the contacts with the the people and bring for ward the future of co-pros perity” del e ga tions to the cel e bra tions of the 70th found ing an ni ver - DPRK toward US prior i ties and unilat eral denuclearization do which, in Moon’s opin ion, would be best imple mented with sary of the DPRK”. This was perceived as an un par don able in - seem des tined to fail. Wash ing ton has failed to ac cept the the railway and road co op er ation as a key foun dation. Pres. sult to the en tire Kim dy nasty, both the dead and the liv ing. emo tional and psy cho log i cal com mit ment of Pres. Moon and Moon let it be known that Se oul would not let this break out be Pyong yang noted: “Ex pect ing any re sult, while in sult ing his in ner-circle. Moon remained com mitted to the orig i nal vi - “sty mied by the UN and US’s North Ko rea sanc tions”. the di alogue part ner and throw ing cold wa ter over our sin cere sion of his men tor: the late Pres. Roh Moo-Hyun. For Pres. The crux of Pres. Moon’s vi sion for the fu ture is the cre - ef forts for build ing con fi dence which can be seen as a precon - Moon, as for Pres. Roh a de cade ear lier, the im prove ment of ation of “a north-east Asian railroad com mu nity” com prised of di tion for im ple ment ing the DPRK-US joint state ment, is in - inter-Ko rean rela tions, both eco nomic and po lit i cal, had a far “the six coun tries of East Asia” — South Ko rea, North Ko rea, deed a fool ish act that amounts to wait ing to see a boiled egg higher pri or ity than denuclearization. And Pres. Moon would China, Ja pan, Rus sia and Mon go lia — as well the US (as a hatch out.” The state ment warned of po ten tially far reach ing not let the US re verse these prior i ties and sti fle the inter-Ko - per func tory men tion ing). “This com mu nity will ex tend our and adverse conse quences of the US policy. rean rap proche ment the way it did in 2007. [both Koreas’] eco nomic ho ri zon into the lands to the north “As long as the US de nies even the ba sic de co rum for its Pres. Moon seemed con vinced that he had in Kim Jong- and will be come the prin ci pal ar tery of co ex is tence and co- di alogue partner and clings to the outdated acting script which Un a soul-mate as com mitted to ful fill ing the vision of inter- pros per ity in north-east Asia. This will lead to an energy com - the pre vi ous ad min is tra tions have all tried and failed, one can - Ko rean rap proche ment of his late fa ther Kim Jong-Il as Moon mu nity and eco nomic com mu nity in East Asia and will be the not ex pect any prog ress in the im ple men ta tion of the was com mit ted to re al iz ing the vi sion of Roh. The ap par ent start ing point for a mul ti lat eral peace and se cu rity sys tem in DPRK-US joint state ment includ ing the denuclearization, and con vic tion of Moon was dra mat i cally re in forced in mid-June north-east Asia,” Pres. Moon said. fur ther more, there is no guar antee that the hard-won at mo - 2018 as a re sult of a sig nif i cant ges ture by North Ko rean mili - He em pha sized that re-con nect ing the rail roads be tween sphere of stabil ity on the Ko rean Pen in sula will con tinue.” tary ne go ti a tors. the two Koreas would fa cil i tate the move ment of goods and Still, Pyong yang did not close the door com pletely. “We In 2007, while in Pyong yang, Pres. Roh Moo-Hyun had peo ple “as far as into the Eu ro pean con ti nent”, thus af fect ing re main un changed in our will to up hold the in ten tions of the planted a tree as a gesture of peace and rec on cil i ation. He did global econ omy. Moon was also convinced that these im - top leaders of the DPRK and the US and to build trust and im - so with Kim Jong-Il. On June 14, 2018, dur ing the General- mense un der tak ings would bring to South Korean com pa nies ple ment in good faith the DPRK-US joint statement step by level inter-Ko rean mil i tary talks at Panmunjom’s Uni fi ca tion “huge prog ress in ad di tion to the nu mer ous jobs cre ated.” step. The US should, even at this be lated time, re spond to our House, Lt.-Gen. Ahn Ik-San (the head of the North Ko rean del - Se oul ex pects the “north-east Asian rail road com mu nity” sin cere ef forts in a cor re spond ing man ner.” e ga tion) pre sented his South ern coun ter part a pho to graph of to be fully in te grated into the PRC’s Belt and Road Ini tia tive By mid-Au gust 2018, PRC and South Korean senior of fi - the tree Roh planted and noted that it was “alive and well”. (BRI) and the Rus sian Trans-Si be rian ar ter ies. cials de fined the re la tions be tween Pyong yang and Wash ing - The Au gust 16, 2018, round of mil i tary talks announced Con tin ued on Page 18

20. defense & foreign affairs strategic policy 8, 2018 Live, current intelligence, now online at www.DFAonline.net Defense Foreign Affairs Handbook

OnlineThe book was hailed by the US National Security Advisor as “indispensable to the running of the White House”. The Online edition gives you even more, updated 24/7. Defense & Foreign Affairs Handbook Online gives you

Thousands of pages of detailed records on 255+ countries and territories worldwide in a database which has been built over almost four decades ää Cabinets and leaders. History; demographics and social data. ä Political and election statistics. äää Economic statistics and infrastructure. Media details. Defense overview and defense structure data. ä Defense facts and figures, addresses, budgets, treaties. ä Comprehensive battle order structures and weapons data. ä Embassy contact details. ä Intelligence organizations. ä Insurgency and terrorist groups. Plus hundreds of bonus, highly detailed special studies on many— countries, with more being added daily.  Defense Foreign Yes, Sign me up for &Affairs 1972 Handbook Online 2010 o A one-year, single-terminal subscription at US$850. o Please contact me to discuss a multi-user license. o My check is enclosed. o Please charge my o MasterCard o Visa o American Express Security Code Credit Card No.: ______Exp. Date: ______ Name: ______Rank/Title: ______Tel. No.:______Organization: ______E-mail Address: ______Address:______City: ______Zip/Postcode: ______Country: ______Signature: ______Date: ______Payments to: International Strategic Studies Association, PO Box 320608, Alexandria, VA 22320, USA Or fax us: +1 (703) 684-7476. Telephone: +1 (703) 548-1070. Email: [email protected]. Subscription forms and pricing also available at our website: www.StrategicStudies.org. This form can be mailed, or you can fax it to +1 (703) 684-7476 Publishing date: August 1, 2018. ISBN: 978-1-892998-25-5. 280pp; glossary, index, bibliography. Price: $32.50 (USA); C$39 (Canada); A$39 (Australia).

#

1972 Sovereignty in the 21st Century 2018