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CEEPEX Regional Power Exchange Final Report

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CEEPEX Regional Power Exchange Final Report CEEPEX Regional Power Exchange Final Report July 29th 2009 A Study on the Organized Electricity Market in the Region Central East Europe Conducted by Nord Pool Consulting AS - Norway and Accenture – Hungary Disclaimer: Nord Pool Consulting AS and Accenture-Hungary retain all rights (including copyrights, brand rights, patent rights) related to the information in this report. Nord Pool Consulting AS and Accenture-Hungary do not permit partial quotes from the study report as this can lead to misleading conclusions. Nord Pool Consulting AS and Accenture-Hungary have prepared this study with great care, however, Nord Pool Consulting AS and Accenture- Hungary do not guarantee that all the information in this study report is correct or up to date. Nord Pool Consulting AS and Accenture-Hungary accept no liability with regard to the use of information contained in this study report. CEEPEX Regional Power Exchange 1 Project Information Project CEEPEX Business Plan Consulting Services Beneficiary E-Control, HEO, World Bank Consulting Nord Pool Consulting Vollsveien 19, P.O. Box 373 Consortium (main consultant) NO-1326 Lysaker, Norway Accenture, Hungary Nord Pool Consulting Lysaker Norway Mr. Hans-Arild Bredesen, Managing Director Date May 05th 2008, Initiation date for the study CEEPEX Page - 1 CEEPEX Regional Power Exchange List of Figures and Tables Figure Title Page Table 4.1 Major Power Exchanges in Europe 12 Figure 4.1 Prices in European DAMs 2007 and 2008 13 Figure 4.2 Commercial versus physical flow 13 Table 7.1 Comparison of existing CEE exchanges 21 Table 7.2 Comparison of CEE trade parameters 21 Table 7.3 TSO unbundling in the CEE Region 22 Table 8.1 CEE Generation capacities 24 Figure 8.1 Physical flow ref.case 10:30 21.01.2009 25 Table 8.2 Comparison of transmission tariffs 26 Figure 8.2 Business Processes 33 Figure 8.3 Inter-Regional Market Coupling 41 Figure 8.4 Regional Power Exchange Concept 42 Figure 8.5 CEEPEX IT-Infrastructure 44 Figure 9.1 Greenfield Concept 47 Figure 9.2 Connection flexibility 48 Figure 9.3 Legal Infrastructure Greenfield 51 Figure 9.4 Legal Infrastructure REE 51 Table 9.1 Decision Matrix 60 Figure 10.1 CEEPEX Business Cases 61 Figure 10.2 GRE Alternative without FM 63 Figure 10.3 GRE Alternative with FM 64 Figure 10.4 REE Alternative without FM 66 Figure 10.5 REE Alternative with FM 67 Table 10.1 Revenue assumptions 68 Table 10.2 Annual OPEX all 4 alternatives 68 Table 10.3 Variables and Charts 69 Figure 10.6 Trend Chart yearly cash-flow 69 Figure 10.7 Tornado Chart standard sensitivity 70 Figure 10.8 Tornado Chart expected sensitivity 71 Figure 10.9 Distribution of NPV 72 Figure 10.10 Distribution of IRR 73 Figure 11.1 BI Framework 74 Figure 11.2 Proposed CEEPEX Structure 75 Figure 11.3 V-Model Concept 79 Figure 11.4 Suggested PMO approach 81 Figure 11.5 High Level Implementation Plan 82 CEEPEX Page - 2 CEEPEX Regional Power Exchange TABLE OF CONTENT 1 PROJECT INFORMATION .................................................................................................................................. 1 2 BACKGROUND AND TERMS OF REFERENCE ............................................................................................. 5 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................................... 9 4 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................. 11 4.1 EUROPEAN ELECTRICITY MARKET DEVELOPMENT ......................................................................................... 12 5 FRAMEWORK FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF CEEPEX .................................................................... 15 6 DESCRIPTION OF EXISTING AND FORTHCOMING EU LEGISLATION ON IEM ............................. 16 6.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................ 16 6.2 RELEVANT EU LEGISLATION FOR THE INTERNAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ....................................................... 16 6.3 EU INTERNAL ELECTRICITY MARKET AND THE CEE REGION ......................................................................... 19 6.4 RELEVANT EU LEGISLATION REGULATING COMPETITION .............................................................................. 19 6.5 RELEVANT EU LEGISLATION ON FINANCIAL MARKETS .................................................................................. 20 7 STATUS OF ELECTRICITY MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN THE CEE COUNTRIES ........................... 21 7.1 COMPARISON OF POWER EXCHANGES IN THE CEE REGION ............................................................................ 21 7.2 SUMMARY OF KEY OBSTACLES IDENTIFIED BY ERGEG ................................................................................. 22 7.3 SUMMARY OF KEY IDENTIFIED OBSTACLES .................................................................................................... 23 8 CEEPEX POWER MARKET .............................................................................................................................. 24 8.1 GENERAL ......................................................................................................................................................... 24 8.2 THE CEE GENERATION CAPACITIES ................................................................................................................ 24 8.3 THE CEE TRANSMISSION CAPACITIES ............................................................................................................. 25 8.4 GRID TARIFFS .................................................................................................................................................. 26 8.5 TRANSITION TOWARDS CEEPEX .................................................................................................................... 27 8.6 ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES OF KEY PLAYERS ............................................................................................ 27 8.7 MARKET STRUCTURE ...................................................................................................................................... 30 8.8 CEEPEX – A PROPOSED MARKET MODEL FOR THE DAY-AHEAD MARKET .................................................... 32 8.9 OTHER POWER MARKET SERVICES ................................................................................................................. 40 8.10 ORGANISATION OF A REGIONAL POWER EXCHANGE ....................................................................................... 42 8.11 TECHNICAL IT-INFRASTRUCTURE ................................................................................................................... 44 9 IMPLEMENTATION OF A GREENFIELD REGIONAL EXCHANGE (GRE) VS. UTILIZING EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE REGION (REE) .................................................................................... 46 9.1 GENERAL ......................................................................................................................................................... 46 9.2 ORGANIZATIONAL ISSUES AND OWNERSHIP .................................................................................................... 47 9.3 LEGAL INFRASTRUCTURE ................................................................................................................................ 51 9.4 MARKET OPERATION....................................................................................................................................... 53 9.5 INTERFACE TO THE TSOS ................................................................................................................................ 54 9.6 SETTLEMENT AND BILLING ............................................................................................................................. 55 9.7 TRANSPARENCY OF RELEVANT MARKET DATA .............................................................................................. 57 9.8 MARKET SURVEILLANCE ................................................................................................................................. 58 9.9 TRADE SYSTEM ............................................................................................................................................... 59 10 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS CONTRASTING THE GRE AND REE ALTERNATIVE ................................... 61 10.1 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF THE ALTERNATIVES ................................................................................................ 62 10.2 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF THE CEEPEX PROJECT ......................................................................................... 69 11 HIGH LEVEL IMPLEMENTATION PLAN FOR THE CHOSEN ALTERNATIVE .................................. 74 11.1 BUSINESS STRATEGY ....................................................................................................................................... 75 11.2 BUSINESS PROCESSES ...................................................................................................................................... 77 CEEPEX Page - 3 CEEPEX Regional Power Exchange 11.3 TECHNOLOGY .................................................................................................................................................. 78 11.4 HUMAN PERFORMANCE ..................................................................................................................................
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