AECOM Report 1.Dot

RER New Stations Initial Business Case SPADINA Barrie Corridor

July 2016

Draft Draft: v1.2 Metrolinx Client ref: 150400

RER New Stations Initial Business Case SPADINA

Draft

Prepared by: Prepared for: Urban Strategies Inc. Metrolinx 197 Spadina Avenue, Suite 600 97 Front Street West Toronto, ON Canada M5T 2C8 Toronto, ON M5J 1E6

RER New Stations Initial Business Case June 2016

Note to the reader: The Initial Business Case (IBC) represents a primary input into the evaluation and recommendation of New Stations. Final recommendation of new station site selection considers, in addition to the four cases of the IBC, network fit, and other strategic considerations including priorities of the various levels of government. Network fit addresses system-wide issues and impact on the overall performance of the rail corridor. IBC results do not represent the final recommendations of the GO RER New Stations Evaluation process. IBC results inform the process outlined in the GO RER New Stations Summary and Ranking Report, which is to be posted in the near future. For more information visit: http://www.metrolinx.com/en/regionalplanning/newstations/ The final list of recommended stations is included in the June 28, 2016 GO Regional Express Rail Update report to Metrolinx Board of Directors.

97 Front Street West 97, rue Front Ouest Toronto, Ontario M5J 1E6 Toronto (Ontario) M5J 1E6

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina– draft

Executive Summary

This Initial Business Case (IBC) examines the potential for a new GO station, Spadina, along the GO Barrie line. The station is proposed immediately south of Front Street West, between Bathurst Street and Spadina Avenue in the North Bathurst Yard. The station is conceived as a single island platform with two pedestrian tunnels providing access to the platform from Front Street West, with the potential for a third connection from the existing Puente de Luz pedestrian bridge. A new GO station at Spadina could help to relieve crowding at Union Station and would serve a high-density of residential and employment uses while also improving access to tourism and other destinations.

Key findings of this IBC for Spadina include:

 Strategic Case: The station aligns with current provincial, local, transportation, and land-use policy, and would generate a net increase of more than 6,000 daily riders on the Barrie line. The station would serve the Downtown Toronto Urban Growth Centre, which is anticipated to continue growing and intensifying at a rapid pace. It would also help to relieve crowding at Union Station by enabling passengers destined west of downtown to alight nearer their destinations.

 Financial Case: The construction and operation of a new station at Spadina may generate a positive net present value (NPV) of $300.2 million over a 60-year time horizon. This NPV combines capital expenditures and recurring station and train operating costs, combined estimated at $46.1 million, with a projected increase in fare revenue of $346.3 million resulting from a significant net ridership gain. These figures imply a positive revenue-to-cost ratio and positive operating cost recovery ratio of 7.51 and 16.46, respectively.

 Economic Case: The new station could attract new riders to the GO network, as well as produce a net transportation mode shift away from personal automobiles. Despite the time to stop at a new station, there would be an overall travel time savings. The results suggest transportation user and environmental benefits amounting to a net gain of $500.0 million over the station’s 60-year evaluation period, with a positive benefit-cost ratio of 12.7.

 Deliverability and Operations Case: The station could be constructed within the existing Bathurst North rail yard, but would eliminate train layover space. This may have significant operational impacts with the introduction of Regional Express Rail (RER) service. The station’s construction complexity would be low, but feasibility would need to be evaluated against system wide service planning.

The assessment of Spadina’s potential concludes that the station performs well in the Financial and Economic Cases, and moderately in the Strategic and Deliverability & Operations Cases. Spadina’s policy alignment and contribution to GO ridership growth are complemented by its ease of construction, a positive net present value, and broader societal benefits. A table summarizing key metrics from each of the four cases follows. A legend is contained in Appendix D.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina– draft

Table ES-1: Results of Initial Business Case Analysis for Spadina

Criterion Summary Policy Alignment Supportive

Development Potential and Intensification Supportive Real Estate Market Demand Supportive Natural Environment Neutral Operational System Neutral Connectivity and Ridership Drivers Supportive StrategicCase Station Access Neutral Social Inclusivity and Accessibility Neutral Incremental GO Ridership (Millions of Trips) 214.2

Fare Revenue (A) $346.3 Total Costs (B) $46.1 Capital Costs $25.1 Operating Costs (C) $21.0 Net Present Value (A-B) $300.2 Financial Case Revenue to Cost Ratio (A/B) 7.51 Operating Cost Recovery Ratio (A/C) 16.46 Travel Time Savings (Millions of Person-Hours) 2.7 Auto Distances Saved (Millions of VKTs) 1,755 Benefits $542.5

Costs $42.6 Net Present Value $500.0 Benefit-Cost Ratio 12.7 Transportation User Impacts $537.7 Travel Time Savings $18.2

Economic Case Vehicle Operating Cost Savings $361.0 Decongestion on Road Network $120.1 Safety Impacts $38.4 Environmental Impacts $4.8

Constructability Supportive Stakeholder Impacts Neutral Room for Growth Neutral Approvals/Permits Required Supportive

Operating Impacts Neutral Deliverability & OperationsCase Other Key Risks and Impacts Not Supportive (Impacts over a 60-year period. Millions of 2015 $ Present Value, unless otherwise noted)

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina– draft

Table of Contents

Executive Summary page 1. Introduction ...... 1 1.1 Background ...... 1 1.2 Report Scope and Purpose ...... 1 1.3 Site Options and Scenarios Analyzed ...... 2 2. Cluster Screening ...... 5 2.1 Methodology ...... 5 3. Station Context and Concept Plan ...... 6 3.1 Station Location ...... 6 3.2 Current Land Uses in Area ...... 6 3.3 Surrounding Transportation Infrastructure...... 7 3.4 Concept Plan Rationale ...... 7 4. Strategic Case ...... 11 4.1 Strategic Case Summary ...... 11 4.2 Approach ...... 11 4.3 Rationale for a New Station ...... 12 4.3.1 Problem Statement ...... 12 4.3.2 Drivers for Change ...... 12 4.3.3 Station Objectives ...... 13 4.3.4 Constraints and Interdependencies ...... 13 4.3.5 Stakeholders ...... 15 4.4 Policy, Land Use and Development ...... 15 4.4.1 Policy Alignment ...... 15 4.4.2 Development Potential and Intensification ...... 16 4.4.3 Real Estate Market Demand ...... 20 4.4.4 Natural Environment ...... 21 4.5 Network, Connectivity, and Accessibility ...... 22 4.5.1 Operational System ...... 22 4.5.2 Connectivity and Ridership Drivers ...... 22 4.5.3 Station Access ...... 26 4.5.4 Social Inclusivity and Accessibility ...... 26 4.6 Strategic Case Sensitivity Scenarios ...... 27 5. Financial Case ...... 29 5.1 Financial Case Summary...... 29 5.2 Approach ...... 29 5.3 Financial Criteria ...... 30 5.3.1 Capital Costs ...... 30 5.3.2 Station Operating and Maintenance Costs ...... 31 5.3.3 Incremental Train Operating Costs ...... 31

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina– draft

5.3.4 Incremental Fare Revenues ...... 31 5.3.5 Revenues from Other Sources ...... 32 5.3.6 Net Present Value ...... 32 5.3.7 Lifecycle Revenue to Cost Ratio ...... 33 5.3.8 Operating Cost Recovery Ratio ...... 33 5.4 Financial Case Sensitivity Scenarios ...... 34 6. Economic Case ...... 35 6.1 Economic Case Summary ...... 35 6.2 Approach ...... 36 6.3 Economic Criteria ...... 36 6.3.1 Project Costs ...... 36 6.3.1.1 Capital Costs ...... 36 6.3.1.2 Station Operating and Maintenance (O&M) Costs ...... 36 6.3.1.3 Incremental Train Operating Costs ...... 36 6.3.2 Transportation User Impacts ...... 37 6.3.2.1 Travel Time Savings ...... 37 6.3.2.2 Change in Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKTs) ...... 38 6.3.2.3 Vehicle Operating Cost Savings...... 38 6.3.2.4 Decongestion Impacts on Road Network ...... 38 6.3.2.5 Safety Impacts ...... 39 6.3.3 Environmental Impacts ...... 39 6.3.3.1 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Impacts ...... 39 6.3.4 Benefit Cost Analysis Results ...... 39 6.3.4.1 Net Present Value (NPV) ...... 39 6.3.4.2 Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) ...... 39 6.3.5 Economic Development Impacts ...... 39 6.3.5.1 Wider Economic Benefits ...... 40 6.3.5.2 Economic Impacts ...... 40 6.3.5.3 Income / Distributional Impacts ...... 40 6.3.5.4 Property and Land Value Changes ...... 41 6.4 Economic Case Sensitivity Scenarios ...... 42 7. Deliverability and Operations Case ...... 43 7.1 Deliverability and Operations Case Summary ...... 43 7.2 Approach ...... 44 7.3 Deliverability and Operations Criteria ...... 44 7.3.1 Constructability ...... 44 7.3.2 Stakeholder Impacts ...... 44 7.3.3 Room for Growth ...... 46 7.3.4 Approvals/Permits Required ...... 46 7.3.5 Operating Impacts ...... 47 7.3.6 Other Key Risks and Impacts ...... 47 7.4 Deliverability and Operations Case Sensitivity Scenarios ...... 47 8. Conclusions and Findings ...... 48 Appendix A: Financial and Economic Case Baseline Assumptions ...... 49 Appendix B: Travel Time Savings Analysis ...... 50 Introduction ...... 50 Analysis Framework ...... 52

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina– draft

Assumptions ...... 53 Appendix C: Land Value Uplift Analysis ...... 54 Appendix D: Criteria Ranges ...... 59

List of Figures

Figure 1-1: Station in wider GO Rail network context...... 2 Figure 1-2: Spadina Station Context Map ...... 1 Figure 3-1: Spadina Station Concept Plan ...... 9 Figure 3-2: Spadina Station Property Requirements ...... 10 Figure 4-1: Existing Land Use ...... 18 Figure 4-2: Current Development Applications and Potential Soft Sites ...... 19 Figure 4-3: Existing, Planned, and Suggested Transit Network ...... 24 Figure 4-4: Existing, Planned, and Suggested Active Transportation Infrastructure ...... 25

List of Tables

Table 4-1: Strategic Case Summary Results ...... 11 Table 5-1: Financial Case Summary Results (Millions of 2015 $, Present Value) ...... 29 Table 5-2: Capital and Operating Cost Estimates (Millions of 2015 $, Present Value, 60-Year Period) ...... 31 Table 5-3: Additional Ridership and Fare Revenue (60-Year Period) ...... 32 Table 5-4: Financial Case Sensitivity Scenarios ...... 34 Table 6-1: Benefit-Cost Analysis Summary Results (Millions of 2015 $, Present Value) ...... 35 Table 6-2: Travel Time Impacts (60-Year Period) ...... 37 Table 6-3: Changes in Auto Distances Traveled (60-Year Period) ...... 38 Table 6-4: Economic Case Sensitivity Scenarios ...... 42 Table 7-1: Deliverability and Operations Case Summary Results ...... 43

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina– draft

1. Introduction

1.1 Background

Recent provincial planning and policy initiatives call for significant operational changes in GO rail services in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA). The Regional Express Rail (RER) program will bring more train trips to every GO rail corridor, including increased weekday rush-hour and non-rush hour periods, evenings and weekends, and electric trains running every 15 minutes or better, all day and in both directions, within the most heavily travelled sections of the network. To address considerations emerging from the RER program, the City of Toronto’s SmartTrack plan and other transit initiatives, Metrolinx initiated an examination of potential new station locations across the seven existing GO rail corridors. New stations should improve access to and egress from the GO rail network and meet strategic, financial (affordability), economic, and operational and deliverability objectives without significantly compromising the regional service objectives of GO and its base of users.

An initial identification of over 120 potential station sites was narrowed to 56 through a high-level evaluation of transport connectivity, planning and land use and technical feasibility. The 56 potential locations were then evaluated against 38 criteria and nine key criteria, yielding 24 sites on corridors that are subject to major infrastructure investment as part of the RER programme, to be examined in more detail using an Initial Business Case (IBC) evaluation.

This IBC addresses the Spadina station, located on the Barrie GO line between Bathurst Street and Spadina Avenue in downtown Toronto. The proposed station platform would extend approximately from Spadina Avenue west to Portland Street. The station would be located in the North Bathurst Yard, 1.5 kilometres west of Union Station. The immediate surroundings are undergoing significant change and redevelopment, including the development of the high-density CityPlace, Wellington Place, and Fort York neighbourhoods south of the rail corridor, as well as a planned commercial/residential redevelopment of the former Globe and Mail site north of the station site. Spadina is also identified as a SmartTrack station, the only SmartTrack station on the Barrie GO line. The station is not part of a larger cluster; it is being evaluated on its own.

1.2 Report Scope and Purpose

The scope of this Initial Business Case Report is to develop a high-level justification of the effectiveness of a proposed new station at Spadina. This report provides an initial overview of how the potential station would contribute toward meeting both Metrolinx’s and local objectives (the Strategic Case), the financial and economic performance of the station (the Financial and Economic Cases), and deliverability and operational considerations (the Deliverability and Operations Case). This IBC looks at how a single new station would perform when added to the existing GO network; combinations of potential new stations have not been reviewed at this stage.

The findings of this report will be compared against the findings of IBCs for other new stations to determine the relative performance of station options across the network. Outcomes of that comparison will support recommendations on which stations should be developed in the near term.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina– draft

Figure 1-1: Station in wider GO rail network context

Potential station

Existing GO stations

Planned GO stations

1.3 Site Options and Scenarios Analyzed

The Spadina station location has been the subject of previous station studies, including an initial 120+ site evaluation that selected sites based on considerations such as station spacing, key transit connections, and municipal and regional transportation priorities. Based on its performance in the 120+ site analysis, Spadina was then studied in more detail as part of Metrolinx’s 50+ station location analysis in summer 2015.

The Scenario options considered in the study are described in the following table, with a rationale provided where options were not considered for Spadina. The implications of the Scenarios on each of the four cases are considered at the conclusion of the case sections in this report, as appropriate.

Scenario Options Description

 RER network based on RER IBC Scenario 5.1 infrastructure and service levels  No new stations Base Case Scenario (Do Nothing)  No fare integration (existing fare policies)  2031 ridership grown by line from 2013 population and employment

(table continued on next page)

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina– draft

Scenario Options Description

 RER network based on RER IBC Scenario 5.1 infrastructure and service levels  One new station with 4.0-minute schedule impact Scenario Option 1 (One New  All Barrie line trains stop at the new station, including future express trains Station)  No fare integration (existing fare policies)  2031 ridership grown by line from 2013 population and employment Scenario Option 2A (Service  Express trains by-pass the new station; only local Barrie line trains stop Concept Sensitivity) Scenario Option 2B (Track  Option not considered for this IBC — no potential changes to track infrastructure Infrastructure Sensitivity) are proposed (B Track extension included in station concept) Scenario Option 2C (Dwell Time  Dwell time may be smaller or larger than the assumed value in Option 1, Sensitivity) depending on train scheduling and actual ridership Scenario Option 2D (Fare  TTC fare at new station Sensitivity) Scenario Option 2E (Horizon and  Development of nearby lands significantly exceeding assumed growth averages Land Use Sensitivity) for the corridor

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina– draft

Figure 1-2: Spadina Station Context Map

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina– draft

2. Cluster Screening

2.1 Methodology

Clusters of potential site options have been identified where the catchment area of individual sites of interest may overlap. In some cases, certain site options can be dropped early prior to detailed consideration in the IBC. Because this site option is the only one being assessed in this IBC, a cluster screening was not performed as part of this IBC.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina– draft

3. Station Context and Concept Plan

3.1 Station Location

The Spadina station is located within the North Bathurst Yard, a railyard currently used for berthing GO trains. Surrounding the railyard are a wide variety of uses and densities, ranging from 40-storey residential towers at CityPlace to the south, to the Fort York National Historic Site (and its Heritage Conservation District) to the west, to the Victorian-era Draper Street Heritage Conservation District and surface parking lots to the north.

Beginning with the Kings Regeneration Initiative in the 1990s, the station’s immediate surroundings have been transformed over the last 25 years from mostly vacant employment and rail lands into one of the densest residential neighbourhoods in Canada. The station’s surroundings are now characterized by creative industry employment in formerly industrial buildings, retail and entertainment uses (including restaurants and nightclubs), public services and amenities, parks, and a wide range of housing forms.

The location for Spadina was selected because of its potential to alleviate congestion at Union Station, to serve rapidly intensifying employment districts west of downtown Toronto, and to support existing and emerging high- density residential and mixed-use development within the Toronto Downtown Urban Growth Centre, as outlined in the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe [GPGGH].

The station would be located within an existing GO rail layover yard. It is anticipated that, upon the implementation of two-way, all-day service (as envisioned under the RER program), layover capacity requirements at the yard would diminish, and lands would become available for implementing the proposed Spadina station. The station platform would serve the GO Barrie line; Metrolinx has identified physical and operational constraints that preclude a station serving additional lines at this site.

3.2 Current Land Uses in Area

The site’s surroundings are characterized as follows:

 To the north: Blocks north of the site contain a variety of low- and mid-rise forms, from 15-storey apartment and condominium buildings to the semi-detached two-storey houses of the Draper Street Heritage Conservation District. Immediately north of the site, the 2- to 4-storey Globe and Mail headquarters occupies a large parcel of land and is proposed for significant redevelopment (see Section 4.3.4). Some new residential construction has occurred north of the station site during the last 15 years, but many vacant sites and surface parking lots still remain, particularly in the block between Front Street, Wellington Street, Portland Street, and Spadina Avenue.

 To the east: East of Spadina Avenue, lands contain a large number of high-rise condominiums as well as office towers, retail uses, and restaurants, while Clarence Square provides a shady 2.5-acre public park for nearby residents. Established landmarks within 750 metres east of the station site include the CN Tower and Rogers Centre. While lands east of the station site have experienced significant intensification in the last 15 years, several large surface parking lots remain.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina– draft

 To the south: South of the railyard, lands are occupied by CityPlace, a high-rise neighbourhood still under development. CityPlace is connected to Front Street across the railyard by the Puente de Luz, a 110-metre pedestrian bridge. The neighbourhood includes some parks, recreational space, and amenities such as the new Fort York Public Library. South of CityPlace is the elevated Gardiner Expressway, a string of residential buildings along Queens Quay West, and, 550 metres distant, the Toronto waterfront. Across the Toronto Harbour’s Western Gap is the Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport.

 To the west: West of Bathurst Street is the Fort York National Historic Site, contained within the Fort York Heritage Conservation District. To the south of the fort is the residential high-rise Fort York Neighbourhood, built entirely since 2002. Northwest of the site are vacant lots, semi-detached houses, and repurposed light industrial buildings and warehouses.

3.3 Surrounding Transportation Infrastructure

Spadina would be situated in the Bathurst Street North Yard, bound by Front Street West, Bathurst Street, Spadina Avenue, and the Union Station Rail Corridor. Both Spadina Avenue and Bathurst Street cross the rail corridor, to the east and west, respectively. In this location, Spadina Avenue consists of six traffic lanes (three in each direction) and two segregated median streetcar lanes. Bathurst Street consists of two traffic lanes and two mixed streetcar/general traffic lanes. Front Street West consists of four traffic lanes (two in each direction), with off-peak parking permitted in curb lanes.

Local streets generally form a grid pattern and are closely spaced. There are limited designated cycling lanes in the immediate area, but sharrows on Spadina Avenue provide a connection between the station site and designated cycling lanes nearby. Most streets in the area have sidewalks.

Several TTC routes serve the station area. The 510 Spadina streetcar on Spadina Avenue stops at Front Street West every seven minutes, and the 511 Bathurst streetcar stops at Bathurst Street and Wellington Street West every five minutes. TTC express bus route # 145 runs on Bathurst Street but does not currently stop near the station.

3.4 Concept Plan Rationale

In terms of technical and delivery challenges, there is no comparable precedent (across the GO rail network) for placing a station within a rail yard. Figure 3-1 shows the proposed concept plan developed for a station at Spadina. It includes a single centre platform, two station buildings, two platform access points (with the potential for a third), and bicycle parking. The location of the station south of Front Street West permits the majority of the station’s facilities to be built on Metrolinx-owned property, with the exception of a narrow strip of land required along the Front Street West right-of-way in order to accommodate the station’s secondary entrance.

Two points of station access are provided on the south side of Front Street West. These entrances have been positioned to support access to the site from both the existing public transportation network and planned future developments. The primary station entrance, at the southwest corner of Spadina Avenue and Front Street West, provides the station with a clear address and a visible presence along Spadina Avenue. Positioning the primary station entrance at this corner also facilitates transfers between the station and the TTC’s 510 Spadina streetcar route, which stops within 70 metres (m) of the station’s proposed front door. In addition to supporting walk-up access from Front Street West and Spadina Avenue, the primary entrance building would also have the potential to

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina– draft

accommodate a future below-grade connection to a significant planned mixed-use development to the immediate north, known as “The Well.”

The station’s secondary entrance along Front Street West has been aligned with a north-south linear pedestrian plaza also proposed as part of The Well development. In conjunction with the pedestrian plaza, an entrance at this location will improve the station’s connectivity to employment and residential areas north of Wellington Street West and beyond.

An opportunity may exist to provide a tertiary entrance to the station platform descending from the existing Puente de Luz pedestrian bridge across the rail corridor. This bridge however, is an example of integrated public art, and any proposed modifications would require further exploration with a range of stakeholders. All three entrances would be accessible.

Together, the primary and secondary station entrances would provide easy access to the station from the north and northeast. The potential tertiary connection would also serve users traveling from the northwest and southwest. From the primary and secondary entrances, connections to the platform are provided through tunnels beneath the rail corridor. Tunnels will minimize pedestrian walking distances, reduce overall infrastructure requirements (i.e., no bridge/elevator/stairs will be required to cross over planned catenary electric wires), and support a below-grade connection to the adjacent “The Well” development.

Due to the dense downtown characteristics of the surrounding area, it has been assumed that no parking facilities will be required, and that the majority of station users will arrive either by active transportation (walking or cycling) or by transfers from other public transit routes.

In terms of its urban context, a new station at Spadina would resemble the nearby Exhibition GO station (which serves the Lakeshore West line).

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

Figure 3-1: Spadina Station Concept Plan

NOTE: conceptual design to be used for IBC evaluation purposes only. It illustrates one potential alternative that may be feasible on this site. The preferred station layout should be determined in consultation with internal and external Metrolinx stakeholders including municipalities. Station location and layout is subject to further feasibility analysis, environmental assessment, and design development.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

Figure 3-2: Spadina Station Property Requirements

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

4. Strategic Case

4.1 Strategic Case Summary

The Strategic Case for Spadina concludes that the station would support local, regional, land-use, and transportation policies, while also generating a net increase of 6,130 daily riders along the Barrie GO line. The station would be located within a designated Urban Growth Centre and within Toronto’s dense Downtown and Central Waterfront, an area that has and continues to experience rapid intensification and significant residential and employment growth, and in which strong future market demand is also anticipated. A new station at Spadina would support a high-density cluster of residents and workers, while also enhancing transit access to a large number of major sporting, cultural, recreational and tourist destinations in downtown Toronto. The station also has the potential to alleviate crowding at Union Station by serving thousands of commuters who work in the significant employment clusters west of Downtown, although it will not particularly serve low-income or disadvantaged communities.

Table 4-1: Strategic Case Summary Results

Strategic Case Summary Spadina Policy Alignment Generally supported by all provincial, regional, local policy Transit-supportive densities, with strong current and proposed Development Potential and Intensification development activity and good forecasted growth potential Real Estate Market Demand Well-situated relative to current and future market demand Within 800 m of sensitive environmental feature (Lake Ontario Natural Environment shoreline) Within 1.55 km of nearest existing station; catchment overlap Operational System would be beneficial in relieving overcrowding 6,130 net new daily GO riders; good connectivity; many Connectivity and Ridership Drivers destinations nearby Station Access Supports access by walking, cycling, and local transit Social Inclusivity and Accessibility Station would improve access to a wide range of destinations

A legend is contained in Appendix D.

4.2 Approach

The Strategic Case sets out the rationale for adding this station; it makes the case for change at a policy and long- term planning level. It sets out the problem statement defining the station rationale, explains the objectives that are to be achieved, and outlines constraints or interdependencies that should be considered with this station. The strategic policy context and the fit with wider public policy objectives are also explained. Other key criteria include relationship to market demand, social and environmental impacts, network connectivity, and ridership.

One of the key determinants of a station’s overall performance at the IBC stage are the forecasted boardings and alightings at the station relative to the through (or “upstream”) passengers who could be delayed by the new station. Several metrics including time savings, new ridership, new revenue, impact on vehicle kilometres travelled (VKTs),

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

and impact on emissions are dependent on these forecasts. The ridership forecasts in this IBC are based on the RER Scenario 5 service concept, including relevant vehicle technology.1

To address the sensitivity of this assessment to ridership forecasts, several scenarios are considered (where appropriate/applicable). These scenarios include the consideration of whether a modified service concept for the station or potential land use/development near the station may affect the station’s performance. The sensitivity of the station’s performance to broader changes to the RER Scenario 5 service concept has not been considered in the scope of this IBC.

4.3 Rationale for a New Station 4.3.1 Problem Statement

The purpose of this IBC is to assess in detail the Spadina GO RER station location in Toronto. A potential new station should improve access to and egress from the GO rail network and meet strategic, affordability, economic, and deliverability objectives without significantly compromising the regional service objectives of GO and its base of users on opening day. A new station at Spadina should also help to relieve crowding and capacity constraints at Union Station, and improve transit access to high-density clusters of employment and residential uses west of downtown Toronto. Potential challenges in the planning of a new station at Spadina include the site’s poor visibility and poor connectivity to the 510 Spadina and 511 Bathurst streetcar routes, the challenges of integrating the station with adjacent planned development, and the timing of the station’s implementation relative to that of the overall RER program.

A station that adequately addresses these statements may be recommended for more detailed design, and further business case analysis. 4.3.2 Drivers for Change

Several external and internal regional drivers for change exist for potential new GO stations across the network.

 Recent investments in new transit infrastructure, including GO RER, new light rail, bus rapid transit lines, and subway infrastructure are increasing the capacity of the transit network and providing new rapid transit options for more trips within all parts of the GTHA.  Congestion on roads and highways throughout the GTHA, which is expected to worsen as the region continues to grow and as opportunities for road and highway expansion are increasingly limited, particularly within core areas of the region.  Demographic changes and shifts within the region, including a younger generation that has a higher tendency to live in core areas and use a car less frequently, aging “baby boomers” who may not be able to drive as much as they used to, and a low-income population that is moving further from the core into car- dependent areas due to high housing prices and rents in the core.  The increased peak and off-peak capacity provided by the GO RER program should be matched with increased ridership so that the program’s benefits can be realized. This increase in ridership will require an expansion of the travel market for the GO network from peak-period 905-to-Union travel to include more off- peak, contra-peak, and non-Union travel, including increased travel within Toronto and between the 905 and suburban and downtown “shoulder” areas of Toronto.

1 Ridership forecasts are derived from the GO New Stations Benefits Spreadsheet (v3.3, May 2016).

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

 More locally, Spadina is in an area of rapid intensification and has experienced significant residential growth of late, particularly to its immediate south, southwest, and southeast. CityPlace, a high-rise development to the south of the site, alone accounts for 10,000 new residents in the station’s vicinity since 2006. The Railway Lands West Secondary Plan, which encompasses CityPlace and the station site, envisions a wide range of land uses for the area, including commercial, residential, institutional, cultural, recreational, parks and open space, and retail, all at medium-to-high densities.  North of the station site is a significant employment cluster centred at King Street West and Spadina Avenue, containing approximately 37,000 jobs as of 2012. This cluster houses many creative sector employers (primarily high-tech, design, fashion, and architecture and related services) in renovated former industrial (“brick and beam”) buildings. Immediately north of the station site, a new development known as “The Well” is planned for the former Globe and Mail property; this development will contain 1,500+ residential units and 105,000 square metres (sq. m) of office space.  Spadina is identified as a SmartTrack station. The City of Toronto’s “SmartTrack Stations Preliminary Assessment” (October 2015) gives Spadina a preliminary assessment score of “High,” based on criteria such as connectivity, reduction in travel times, social equity, and support of planned growth.  A new station at Spadina, larger and more complex than the single-platform concept proposed here, has also been studied previously by Morrison Hershfield.2

A new GO station at Spadina would support emerging land uses and communities and provide good transit access to major sporting, cultural, and tourist destinations in downtown Toronto. It would help to relieve crowding at Union Station by serving thousands of commuters who work in the significant employment clusters west of downtown, particularly in the King-Spadina area. The station would also serve residents of CityPlace and other emerging neighbourhoods who commute to destinations west of the downtown and north of the City along the Barrie GO corridor. 4.3.3 Station Objectives

The implementation of a new station should meet the following objectives:

 Improve service and add riders  Minimize impact on trip time for existing customers  Maintain appropriate station spacing for the vehicle technology  Support existing regional and municipal plans  Support access to existing and emerging high-density residential neighbourhoods to the north and south of the rail corridor  Facilitate longer-term connectivity to planned development immediately north of the rail corridor  Provide regional transit access to a significant cluster of existing and planned employment uses north of the station site  Provide direct transit access to major cultural, sporting, and entertainment destinations  Support ridership transfers to the 510 Spadina and 511 Bathurst streetcar routes 4.3.4 Constraints and Interdependencies

The strategic, economic, financial, and operational performance of this new station is affected by a number of constraints and interdependencies with other initiatives, including:

 GO Electrification: Infrastructure to permit the operation of electrified trains on the GO network, necessary to permit planned 15-minute service on many GO corridors3. Efficiencies in capital costs and construction

2 Potential Spadina Station (Bathurst North Yard) Options Report, prepared for Metrolinx, May 21, 2015

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

impacts may be achieved by coordinating the planning, design, and construction of a new station with that of any necessary electrification infrastructure in the station area. For electrification, the recommended distance between a Traction Power Facility (TPF) and a GO station is approximately 800 m, and can be reduced to a minimum separation distance of approximately 400 m if required. As conceptually designed, Spadina would be located within approximately 500 m of an Ordnance Paralleling Station (location approved in 2014).  Effects of other new stations on the ridership potential at this station: The additional travel time caused by the additional stops may decrease ridership between this station and other existing stations, while the additional potential origin-destination pairs served by this station and other new stations may increase station ridership.  Union Station Rail Corridor: Upgrades to signalling, communications, and track infrastructure in the vicinity of Union Station  Georgetown South Project: Significant infrastructure improvements along 20 kilometers of rail corridor that will help to meet the demands of existing GO Transit ridership and future growth. Work to date has included the Union Pearson Express air-rail link.  Adjacent development projects: The station would be located in an area of active development, and a number of significant nearby development projects may influence the design and planning of the station, including: o 1–19 Draper Street, 440–462 Front Street West, 6–18 Spadina Avenue, and 425–443 Wellington Street West (north of rail corridor): A large proposed development project known as “The Well,” located across Front Street West from the station site, to consist of seven mixed-use buildings ranging in height from 21 to 44 storeys, and to contain 1,500+ residential units and 149,669 sq. m non-residential GFA (including office and retail). Plans include improved pedestrian connectivity through the site to surrounding neighbourhoods to the north, as well as a future underground connection to a GO station in the North Bathurst Yard. Plans also call for a landscaped, cantilevered green terrace/boardwalk along the northern edge of the rail corridor. o 485–489 Wellington Street West (north of rail corridor): A proposed 16-storey mixed-use building, to contain 136 residential units and 541 sq. m non-residential GFA (retail). o 576–580 Front Street West, 25–27 Bathurst Street, and 33–49 Niagara Street (north of rail corridor): A proposed multi-part mixed-use building ranging in height from eight to 18 storeys, to contain 1,200 residential units and 5,013 sq. m non-residential GFA (retail). o Within a wider 800 m radius of the station site, a total of 19 development applications within the last three years comprise a planned 10,469 residential units and 289,267 sq. m non-residential GFA.  Adjacent soft sites: The development of adjacent “soft sites” may influence the design and planning of the station in the medium or long term, including: o Parking lot between 517 Wellington Street West and 532 Front Street West: Site with the potential to connect Victoria Memorial Park and surrounding dwellings to the station site on Front Street West o 510–524 Front Street West: Car dealership (Toyota on Front) and parking lot across the street from the Puente de Luz and station site o 150 Queens Wharf Road: Vacant lot behind 170–190 Fort York Boulevard, abutting the Bathurst Street Bridge and rail corridor o Within a wider 800 m radius of the station site, there are a total of 1.74 hectares (ha) of soft sites (see Figure 4-2).

3 Details on GO Electrification are available in the GO Electrification Study Final Report (December 2010).

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

4.3.5 Stakeholders

There are a range of stakeholders that might or will be affected by the development of a new station at Spadina. These include:

 Metrolinx Operations and Capital Projects Group  Municipalities: City of Toronto  Elected officials: Toronto City Councillor (Ward 20); Member of Provincial Parliament; Member of Parliament  Transit agencies: Toronto Transit Commission  Owners, developers, and residents of adjacent properties  Business Improvement Areas: e.g. Toronto Entertainment District BIA, Waterfront BIA  Residents’, Ratepayers’, and Neighbourhood Associations: e.g. King-Spadina Residents’ Association, Niagara Neighbourhood Now, CityPlace Residents’ Association, Wellington Place Neighbourhood Association, Fort York Neighbourhood Association, Bathurst Quay Neighbourhood Association, Toronto Entertainment District Residents’ Association  Travelers (transit, road, and active transportation users)

4.4 Policy, Land Use and Development

The following criteria examine how the new station conforms to provincial, regional, and local planning policy for land use and transportation. This section also discusses the station’s fit or potential impact to the surrounding neighbourhoods and potential future development.

4.4.1 Policy Alignment

Policy Hierarchy Specific Policy Overview and Conformity A new station in this location would support transportation Provincial policies in the Provincial Policy Statement by improving Policy Statement access to the transportation network and supporting connectivity across the region. A new station at Spadina would support strategies and goals outlined in The Big Move Regional Transportation Plan Provincial Land-Use and Regional and within the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Transportation Policy Transportation Plan Horseshoe [GPGGH], as it would enhance transit access for residents and workers in the area, and improve transit Growth Plan for the service in an area where future growth and intensification is Greater Golden anticipated. The site is also located within the GPGGH Horseshoe Toronto Downtown Urban Growth Centre, a designated focal area for investment in region-wide public services including major transit infrastructure.

(table continued on next page)

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

Policy Hierarchy Specific Policy Overview and Conformity In Toronto’s Official Plan, the station would be situated within Toronto’s Downtown and Central Waterfront. Toronto’s Official Plan identifies the Downtown as critical to the health of the city and region, offering unique opportunities for City of Toronto employment and residential growth. Priority is given to Official Plan improving transit (including GO) access to the Downtown. The Official Plan land use map designates much of the land immediately adjacent to the station as Mixed Used Areas and Regeneration Areas, which are targeted for growth Regional/Local Land-Use and redevelopment. and Transportation Policy The Railway Lands West Secondary Plan and Railway Lands Central Secondary Plan identify lands adjacent to the rail corridor as suitable for future comprehensive redevelopment supported by transit. City of Toronto Other nearby Secondary Plans [SPs], including the Fort Secondary Plans York Neighbourhood, Central Waterfront, and King- Spadina SPs, also promote mixed-use development, community growth, and new connections and transit access for the area. The site is within the study area for TOCore, a current planning study that is reviewing growth-related issues in downtown Toronto, including the accommodation of new TOCore residents, economic development, and the reduction of congestion through new transit and active transportation Local City-Building routes. Initiatives The station is located within 800 m of three Heritage Heritage Conservation Districts [HCDs] and two potential HCDs, and Conservation there are approximately 210 heritage properties within 800 m Districts and other of the site. Station development would need to consider the heritage initiatives goals and strategic directions that apply to nearby HCDs and consider the implications of future heritage designations.

4.4.2 Development Potential and Intensification

There are 13,138 residents and 45,013 daytime jobs located within 800 m of the station site. The local population is projected to grow to 23,397 by 2026, and daytime employment to 48,303.4 Projections are not available for years beyond 2026. These equate to current and projected population-and-job densities of 289 people and jobs per hectare (P+J/ha) and 356 P+J/ha, respectively, both of which would be transit-supportive, according to Metrolinx’s density guidelines for express rail stations (150–300 P+J/ha).5

There were 19 development applications in the last three years within 800 m of the station. Together, these applications represented 10,469 residential units and 289,267 sq. m of non-residential GFA. There are also more

4 Pitney Bowes/Magnify Maps 5 Transit-supportive density of an “Express Rail” mobility hub, Metrolinx Mobility Hub Guidelines for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, Metrolinx, September 2011

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

than 1.7 ha of land within 800 m with the potential for redevelopment over time, which would also add to the area’s density.

Figure 4-2 shows identified soft sites within 800 m of the station site. Each soft site has been categorized by its land use designation in Toronto’s Official Plan, resulting in the following table of lands with potential to redevelop over time:

Land use designation Total area of soft sites within 800 m Regeneration Areas 1.18 ha Employment Areas 0.00 ha Mixed Use Areas 0.00 ha Residential Areas 0.00 ha Parks 0.56 ha

Appropriate floor space index (FSI) precedents, including built and proposed developments, have been used to determine potential gross floor area (GFA) yields for these soft sites over time:

Type of use Total area of soft sites within 800 m Office/Employment 0 sq. m Retail/Commercial 13,575 sq. m Residential 124,825 sq. m

If all of the building space within these development applications and all of the development potential within these soft sites were to be realized, the station’s catchment area would be expected to increase by:

 16,700 jobs  21,300 people

Given historic demand trends, the catchment area is expected to accommodate approximately 30–55% of the above-mentioned potential employment growth (33–66% of office jobs and 20–33% of retail jobs), and 90–100% of potential population growth, by 2031.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

Figure 4-1: Existing Land Use

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

Figure 4-2: Current Development Applications and Potential Soft Sites

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

4.4.3 Real Estate Market Demand

Relationship to Current Market Demand

The station is well-situated relative to current office employment market demand. There are 1,210,000 sq. m of major office space in the catchment area. Approximately 26,500 sq. m of new office space were completed in 2015, and an average of 5,300 sq. m per annum of new office space has been added over the past five years. The Downtown West office submarket is healthy, with 1,100,000 sq. m of office space, of which only 6% is vacant. Approximately 26,500 sq. m of new supply was added to this market in 2015; approximately 5,300 sq. m per annum has been added over the past five years. Downtown West demand (i.e., net absorption) was healthy (9,300 sq. m) in 2015, but has been weak during the preceding four years, such that Downtown West lost an average of 2,800 sq. m of occupied space over the past five years (i.e., negative absorption). Downtown West faces competition with other areas of the downtown, including Downtown South (with Southcore) and Downtown East. Class A net rent averages $276.41 per sq. m, which is sufficient to attract new development. Overall, the station is well located relative to current office employment market demand.

However, the station is not well-situated relative to industrial market demand. While the catchment area has 213,000 sq. m of existing industrial inventory, no new industrial space has been developed over the past five years. The broader City of Toronto industrial market has 2,400,000 sq. m of industrial space. While City of Toronto industrial absorption (the net change in occupied space) was positive in 2015 (by a modest 74,000 sq. m), an average of 158,000 sq. m of occupied space per annum has been lost over the past five years (i.e., negative absorption).

The station is well-situated relative to current retail market demand. There is limited traditional shopping centre retail space within the immediate catchment area. However, there is significant retail inventory within existing office buildings, within the podiums of condominium towers and along main streets. Moreover, there is likely potential for retail inventory growth within the catchment area, to serve the burgeoning residential population within a broader retail trade area. Further retail opportunity analyses would be required to determine the viability of retail development within the catchment area.

The station is well-situated relative to current residential market demand. There are approximately 9,800 condominium units being actively marketed within the catchment area, of which approximately 1,500 are unsold. This represents a 10-month supply of unsold condominiums at past (5-year average) absorption levels. The catchment area has experienced more than 1,500 condominium sales in 2015, and an average of 1,800 sales per annum over the past five years. The abutting CityPlace condominium market has approximately 1,900 units being actively marketed, of which 299 are unsold. Sales activity was healthy (i.e., 419 units) in 2015, and sales have averaged 393 units per annum over the past five years. Condominium prices are more than sufficient to warrant new development, averaging at $6,253 per sq. m within the catchment area, and $6,372 per sq. m in CityPlace.

Relationship to Future Market Demand

The station is well-located relative to likely future office demand. There are approximately 213,000 sq. m of office development potential in properties subject to development applications and/or identified “soft sites” within the catchment area, assuming that all employment potential is developed as office space. However, Downtown West demand is not likely sufficient to absorb this degree of potential new office supply by 2031. If historic trends continue, approximately 4,600–9,200 sq. m of office space would be absorbed per year, such that approximately 70,000– 140,000 sq. m of office space would be absorbed over a 15-year time horizon (by 2031). However, the supply of office land in Downtown South (west of Yonge Street) is becoming constrained, and demand might potentially shift westwards into the station’s catchment area (and Downtown West), but also eastwards into Downtown East.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

The station is well-located relative to likely future retail demand. There are approximately 90,000 sq. m of retail development potential within the catchment area. There is likely potential for retail inventory growth to serve the burgeoning residential population within a broader retail trade area. The catchment area is likely under-retailed. However, the development of a full 90,000 sq. m of additional retail space within 15 years would represent a dramatic increase in the catchment area (and broader trade area) retail inventory. The addition of 11,800 units to the catchment area would have the potential to add 21,300 people who would theoretically need approximately 69,000 sq. m of retail space (at 3.25 sq. m of shopping centre and main street retail space per capita). However, much of that retail demand would flow to existing retail facilities within the trade area. It is broadly conjectured that 25% (17,200 sq. m) of net new retail space would be required to serve that population. Additional retail space may or may not be required to serve the retail needs of residents travelling well beyond the trade area and shopping in the trade area if the additional retail facilities were provided. Further retail opportunity analysis may be required to determine the viability of retail development within the catchment area.

The station is well-located relative to likely future residential demand. There are approximately 1,090,000 sq. m of residential development potential within the catchment area. Assuming an average condominium unit size of 79 sq. m rentable / 93 sq. m gross, there is potential for the development of approximately 11,800 units within the catchment area. Given historic demand trends (i.e., 1,837 units per annum), virtually all of this additional development potential will likely be fully absorbed by 2031.

4.4.4 Natural Environment

The station site is within 800 m of Toronto’s Natural Heritage System, namely the Lake Ontario shoreline, which is also a Toronto and Region Conservation Authority (TRCA) Regulated Area. As per Ontario Regulation 166/06, development of and interference with regulated wetlands, shorelines, watercourses, and areas subject to flooding may be restricted. The site is not near any Areas of Natural and Scientific Interest.

Rail traffic along the Union Station rail corridor is and will continue to be a source of noise and vibration impacts for adjacent properties. With the increase in train traffic associated with the proposed RER program, it is anticipated that noise and vibration impacts may also increase. In addition, train deceleration and acceleration associated with new service to Spadina would be expected to result in further noise and air-quality impacts to adjacent sensitive receptors, including residential developments adjacent to the rail corridor. However, the station would be located in an area of existing heavy train operations, and the incremental impact of the station is expected to be marginal. Any potential noise impacts associated with the new station will require further evaluation through an Environmental Assessment study in accordance with MOE, City of Toronto, and GO Transit noise regulations.

The new Spadina station is proposed to be situated entirely within an existing rail yard. This poses contamination- related concerns typical of rail facilities. Construction of station elements (such as the platform and pedestrian tunnels) would likely require excavation and removal of potentially contaminated materials including contaminated rail ballast, bedding and fill material associated with the use of slag, coal cinders, and ash. Excess soil will require waste classification in accordance with applicable regulatory requirements. Regulatory requirements in place at the time of construction, as well as excess materials management guidelines and specifications, would have to be used when developing an excess materials management plan in accordance with MOE standards, Ontario Regulation 153/04, and Ontario Provincial Standard Specification 180 (General Specification for the Management of Excess Materials). The Potential Spadina Station (Bathurst North Yard) Options Report, prepared for Metrolinx in 2015, assumed that 50% of the material to be removed to construct the station described in the report would be contaminated.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

4.5 Network, Connectivity, and Accessibility

The following criteria examine how the new station could connect and interact with existing and planned transit and active transportation networks and surrounding land uses. They also describe the general ridership potential for the new station. 4.5.1 Operational System

Spadina would be located 1.55 kilometres (km) from Union Station and 19.15 km from the existing York University station on the Barrie line. The station would be 8.85 km from a planned Caledonia station. Another potential new station on the Kitchener line, Liberty Village, would be located 2.10 km to the west. The existing distance gap between stations is 20.70 km, or 10.40 km when considering Caledonia.

The station would have limited potential to address access constraints at existing adjacent stations. Although there are no Passenger Pick-Up and Drop-Off (PPUDO) or parking facilities at existing adjacent stations, Spadina would also not include these facilities. It is estimated that there would be some overlap with the catchment area of Union Station for both boardings and alightings, although overlap would be beneficial in terms of relieving passenger congestion at Union.

Spadina would partially duplicate existing transit service due to its proximity to Union Station and existing streetcar routes. However, there is currently no alternative direct route between the station area and other destinations along the Barrie line. 4.5.2 Connectivity and Ridership Drivers

Ridership forecasts for Spadina indicate it could attract an estimated 4,350 passenger trips in the AM peak period in the 2031 scenario (approximately 12,400 new trips daily). The station would serve primarily as a destination (rather than an origin station), with approximately 96% of new riders alighting at the station. Further, an estimated 1,950 existing AM peak period passengers (5,550 daily) would alight at this station. It is assumed that these riders would be destined to downtown locations west of the station area, and would otherwise be destined to Union Station. Introduction of Spadina is therefore expected to provide some relief to congestion and crowding at Union Station.

While Spadina would have the potential to attract a number of new riders to the system, it would also result in additional delay to a significant number of existing riders destined to Union Station and beyond. This section of the Barrie GO line, between Union Station and York University, is the most heavily-used section in the entire corridor, and a new station in this area would therefore result in the maximum number of riders impacts to the Barrie line. An estimated average 10% increase in overall travel time would be experienced by upstream riders as a result of trains serving a new station at Spadina. This delay would be expected to deter some existing upstream riders, resulting in a loss of approximately 2,195 passengers in the AM peak period in the 2031 scenario (6,260 daily).

With losses balanced against the estimated new ridership that the station could generate, an expected net gain of approximately 2,150 new AM peak period riders (6,130 daily) would be generated by Spadina station.

Spadina would connect to the TTC’s 510 Spadina and 511 Bathurst streetcar lines, which serve Spadina Avenue and Bathurst Street and stop 75 m and 400 m from the station site, respectively. The station has the potential to further improve overall transit network service, mainly through more direct connections given that both streetcar routes already connect with the Barrie line at Union Station. The station would have minimal impact on local transit agency operations; a single TTC bus route would require a new or relocated stop in order to serve riders at Spadina. Further study is required to determine the impact of the station on local transit ridership.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

There are five local destinations within 800 m of the station site. In addition, the station would serve 16 destinations of city-wide significance, and a further 15 regional destinations with the potential to attract riders from across the GO network. A full list of destinations follows:

Retail/Commercial Public Housing 1. Queen Street West BIA 1. 150 Dan Leckie Way (TCHC) 2. The Waterfront BIA 2. 25 Bishop Tutu Boulevard (TCHC) 3. Toronto Entertainment District BIA 3. 575 Adelaide Street West (TCHC)

Arts/Culture Tourism 1. Canadian Broadcasting Corporation 1. CN Tower 2. Factory Theatre 2. Metro Toronto Convention Centre 3. Glenn Gould Studio 3. Ripley’s Aquarium of Canada 4. Princess of Wales Theatre 4. Rogers Centre 5. The Second City 5. Steam Whistle Brewery 6. TIFF Bell Lightbox 6. Toronto Railway Museum

Community/Park Heritage 1. Canoe Landing Park 1. Draper Street Heritage Conservation District 2. Clarence Square 2. Fort York Heritage Conservation District 3. Fort York Public Library 3. Fort York National Historic Site 4. Harbourfront Community Centre 4. Queen Street West Heritage Conservation

5. HTO Park District 6. Ireland Park 5. Union Station Heritage Conservation District 7. Little Norway Park 8. Metro Hall Place of Worship 9. Roundhouse Park 1. Evangel Hall 10. Toronto Music Garden 2. St. Mary’s Church 11. Victoria Memorial Park

There are limited designated cycling lanes in the immediate area. However, sharrows on Spadina Avenue provide a connection to designated cycling lanes nearby. Most streets in the area have sidewalks.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

Figure 4-3: Existing, Planned, and Suggested Transit Network

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

Figure 4-4: Existing, Planned, and Suggested Active Transportation Infrastructure

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

4.5.3 Station Access

The station’s conceptual design supports access by walking, cycling, and local transit. Parking and Passenger Pick- Up and Drop-Off (PPUDO) facilities would not be provided. Two bicycle shelters are provided at the station to accommodate the anticipated riders who would access the station by bicycle. Direct connections could be made to the TTC’s 510 Spadina streetcar within 75 m of the station. Sidewalks and signalized crossings exist to facilitate this connection, and shelters are available at transit stops near the station. The station concept also facilitates walk-up ridership with access points on Front Street West and Spadina Avenue and within 200 m of Bathurst Street. 4.5.4 Social Inclusivity and Accessibility

Disadvantaged Residents Served

The nearest Neighbourhood Improvement Area is South Parkdale, 2.0 kilometres to the west (an indirect 25-minute walk). Key income statistics for city wards6 within 800 m of the station site are also provided in the following table:

Ward 19 Ward 20 800 m City of Trinity- Trinity- catchment Toronto Spadina Spadina area average Average household income (2010) $85,294 $84,382 $87,038 Median household income (2011)7 $68,692 Households spending >30% of income on shelter 37.3% 43.6% 36.6% % population in low-income households 14.4% 21.8% 19.3%

Because household incomes in the surrounding wards are generally average (although somewhat lower in the station’s immediate vicinity), and because distance and the rail corridor both pose barriers to residents in the nearest Neighbourhood Improvement Area, Spadina would be unlikely to directly serve any particular community of low- income or disadvantaged residents.

Accessibility Index

In order to assess the potential Spadina site, the Accessibility Model was used to test the area before and after the potential station is placed on the network. There are two key metrics produced by this model. The first is the Access to Transit (ATT) output which is a rating of the level of transit service available. This index is based on walking distance to transit stops as well as the waiting time at the said transit stop. The second output used is the Accessibility Index (AI) which represents the level of transit service, with higher AIs representing more frequent, nearby transit service.

The station’s surrounding area has a high Accessibility Index (AI) compared to other locations under consideration in other GO RER IBCs. If a new station at Spadina were to be built, the AI would be anticipated to increase by a relatively small degree due to the high level of existing transit service in the area. If a new station at Spadina were to be built, the AI would be anticipated to increase from 57 to 64 (a moderate increase in AI of 13%). With the addition of the station, the ATT would increase from 8.3 to 8.5, a 3% increase.

In terms of accessibility to landmarks and destinations, there are 36 destinations within 800 m of the station site (see Section 4.5.2 for details).

6 City of Toronto 2011 Ward Profiles 7 Metrolinx memo (April 29, 2016): “DRAFT - New Stations and Access to Transit”

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

Aesthetic Impacts

With the station being built entirely within an existing rail corridor and approximately one storey below street level, the aesthetic of the station area would not significantly change if Spadina were to be built. The most significant visual change would be the replacement of an existing small railyard facility building with a new small station building at street level. As shown in the station’s conceptual design (Section 3.4), the station would include improved sidewalks along the south side of Front Street West, as well as a small plaza outside the station building at the corner of Spadina Avenue. The station will neither remove barriers nor create new ones.

Safety Impacts

In the station’s conceptual design, the platform will be accessed primarily by tunnels, potentially resulting in safety concerns, particularly if the tunnels are not well-lit or adequately monitored. The platform itself will be visible and will benefit from natural surveillance from all directions.

Community/Cultural Impacts

There are 210 designated heritage properties within 800 m of the station site, including 20 properties within 200 m (all part of the Draper Street Heritage Conservation District). The station would be unlikely to affect any of these heritage properties directly.

There are also five community facilities within 800 m:

 Harbourfront Community Centre  Oasis Alternative Secondary School  City School  Alpha Alternative Junior School  The Waterfront School

None of these community facilities directly abut the rail corridor or are near enough to the station site to be directly affected. However, a new station at Spadina may improve city-wide and regional access to cultural amenities such as the Harbourfront Community Centre and nearby destinations along the Toronto waterfront, providing a larger base of users for these facilities and amenities.

4.6 Strategic Case Sensitivity Scenarios

Implications for the Strategic Case under the various sensitivity scenarios are discussed in the following table:

Scenario Options Description

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

Scenario Options Description

 The base case (Option 1) for the station assumes a 4.0-minute delay, higher than other stations due to the high numbers of forecasted alighting passengers as well as the off-line configuration of the platform.  Due to the planned B Track extension and constrained track infrastructure around the station location, the delay may be larger than the assumed value. In this case, Scenario Option 2C (Dwell Time the negative impacts to travel time for upstream passengers would be increased Sensitivity) and the positive impacts of the station on travel time savings, VKTs, emissions, and new revenue may be reduced.  Further analysis in consideration of the potential station should include modelling of the proposed service concept, including impacts to other GO rail lines and the UP Express.  Although the station would not provide service to the potential SmartTrack line, there is nonetheless potential for fare integration with TTC.  Fare integration may increase ridership (boardings and alightings) at the station and could increase the positive impacts of the station on travel time savings, Scenario Option 2D (Fare VKTs, and emissions. However, net impacts to new revenue would be dependent Sensitivity) on the fare model adopted.  The station’s long-term effect on the sociodemographic make-up of the surrounding area will depend to some extent on factors including the fare structure used.  Significant development nearby to the station could result in increases to ridership Scenario Option 2E (Horizon and at the station and improve the net impact of the new station on travel time Land Use Sensitivity) savings, VKTs, emissions, and new revenue.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

5. Financial Case

5.1 Financial Case Summary

The Financial Case for Spadina reveals that the construction and operation of the new station may generate a positive net present value (NPV) of $300.2 million over a 60-year time horizon. The station is expected to be relatively economical to construct, with limited new infrastructure required, and is expected to generate significant new ridership. Significant impacts to upstream ridership are anticipated, but are far outweighed by the benefits of the new ridership gains. The positive NPV combines capital expenditures and recurring station and train operating costs, combined estimated at $46.1 million, as well as an $346.3-million increase in fare revenues resulting from the net ridership gain. These results imply a revenue-to-cost ratio and operating cost recovery ratio of 7.51 and 16.46, respectively. In other words, despite the project’s costs, a new Spadina station may result in revenue increases equal to 751% of total project costs and 1646% of total operating costs. Table 5-1 summarizes the key results of the Financial Case.

Table 5-1: Financial Case Summary Results (Millions of 2015 $, Present Value)

Financial Case Summary Results (Millions of 2015$, PV) Spadina Incremental GO Ridership (Millions of Trips) 214.2 Fare Revenue (A) $346.3 Total Costs (B) $46.1 Capital Costs $25.1 Operating Costs (C) $21.0 Net Present Value (A-B) $300.2 Revenue to Cost Ratio (A/B) 7.51 Operating Cost Recovery Ratio (A/C) 16.46

A legend is contained in Appendix D.

5.2 Approach

The Financial Case compares the incremental capital expenditure, operating and maintenance costs and fare revenues for the new station relative to the base case scenario (i.e. without the new station). The assessment is based on 2031 ridership estimates grown by corridor from 2013 levels and assumes that demand will grow at the same rate as the demand in the corridor.

The dollar figures for the 60-year evaluation period from the potential construction start date (2022) through to the end of 2081 are in nominal dollars (i.e. the dollar figure expected to be paid or received expressed in the year of the payment). Nominal dollars are calculated assuming an annual inflation rate of 2%. The annual costs and revenues are discounted back to a single value using a nominal discount rate of 5.5%. Once discounted, the total costs are compared against the incremental fare revenues to derive the net present value for the financial case as well as the lifecycle revenue to cost ratio and the operating cost recovery ratio.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

The Financial Case is developed on the basis of conventional public sector funding of the capital investment undertaken by Metrolinx. Potential partnership opportunities to reduce Metrolinx’s capital investment will be explored in future phases of work. Appendix A summarizes all the financial baseline assumptions and data sources.

5.3 Financial Criteria

The financial criteria consist of the financial implications of constructing and operating the proposed new station in terms of lifecycle costs and revenues for Metrolinx. Costs include the capital expenditure as well as incremental station and train operating costs. Incremental revenues may include fare revenue, advertising, and proceeds from disposal of assets. However, at this stage, the assessment only considers the additional fare revenues for GO. The dollar figures below are in present value (PV) terms, unless otherwise indicated. 5.3.1 Capital Costs

Capital costs include both direct and non-direct costs incurred to construct the station. Direct costs relate to the actual construction of the infrastructure; non-direct costs cover all related costs such as those related to risk/contingency, design and project management. Major refurbishments over the 60-year life cycle also form part of the station’s capital costs.

Based on the station concept presented in Figure 3-1, the order-of-magnitude station cost has been estimated using a 50% contingency allowance and a 15% allowance for engineering, construction administration, and management. A further 15% allowance (applied to direct costs) was incorporated to address the complexity of constructing the platform within an active rail facility.

A station at Spadina would be constructed outside of existing track alignments, in an adjacent train layover yard; little additional property is required to implement the station. Minor shifts in yard track alignments would, however, be required to accommodate a proposed island passenger platform. Proposed track widening would occur south of the proposed passenger platform, within existing GO Transit property.

Other major cost items associated with the construction of Spadina include:

 A passenger services building  Four elevators/stairs  New platform with four shelters  Long pedestrian tunnels

This cost estimate includes refurbishment costs for key project elements at varying intervals, including station amenities (platform, shelters, elevators, etc.), railway modifications, site and access provisions (roadworks, sidewalks, parking facilities, etc.) and structures.

Over the 60-year lifespan of the project, capital costs amount to an estimated total present value of approximately $25.1M ($2015).

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

5.3.2 Station Operating and Maintenance Costs

The annual operating and maintenance costs consist of labour and station and ticketing machine operating and maintenance costs. They are estimated by comparing the total system operating and maintenance costs with and without the new station using the RER Model Second Generation. The station operating and maintenance costs are assumed to grow at a nominal rate of 2.05% per year until 2044 and remain constant thereafter.

For this Financial Analysis, the additional station operating costs associated with Spadina are anticipated to be $9.9M ($2015, discounted) over the lifecycle of the station. 5.3.3 Incremental Train Operating Costs

The incremental train operating costs consist primarily of crew costs, operations administration and management and wayside power. They are also estimated using the RER Model Second Generation. The assessment assumes that the train operating costs fluctuate at annual nominal rates varying between –2.8% and 2.8% until 2044 and remain constant thereafter.

The introduction of a Spadina station to the GO Barrie line is expected to impose a 4.0-minute delay per train serving the station. This time is due to train deceleration, dwell time to serve passengers, and acceleration to return to operating speed.

For this Financial Analysis, the additional train operating costs associated with stopping at Spadina are anticipated to be $11.1M ($2015, discounted) over the lifecycle of the station.

Table 5-2: Capital and Operating Cost Estimates (Millions of 2015 $, Present Value, 60-Year Period)

Capital and Operating Cost Estimates (Millions of 2015 $, PV) Spadina Capital Costs $25.1 Subtotal - Capital Cost Elements $22.6 Property Allowance $0.0 Professional Services (15%) $2.4 Station Operating Costs $9.9 Train Operating Costs $11.1 Total Costs $46.1

5.3.4 Incremental Fare Revenues

The ridership impacts are based on 2031 ridership estimates and projected using an annual ridership growth rate assumption of 6.8% until 2044 and no ridership growth thereafter. Average fares per category of riders were applied to the annual ridership estimates to derive the change in fare revenues. Error! Reference source not found. summarizes the change in ridership and in fare revenues.

As discussed, ridership forecasts for Spadina station indicate that the estimated uptake of new riders at the station would more than offset the loss of riders due to the additional trip time associated with stopping at the station.

This net ridership gain would result in an overall net revenue of approximately $346.3M ($2015, discounted) over the 60-year life-cycle of the station.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

Table 5-3: Additional Ridership and Fare Revenue (60-Year Period)

Additional Riders and Fare Revenue Spadina

Total Additional GO Ridership (Millions) 214.2 New Riders Boarding or Alighting at Station 433.2 New Through Riders Alighting at Station 0.0 Change in Upstream Boardings –219.0 Total Additional GO Fare Revenues (Millions of 2015 $, PV) $346.3

5.3.5 Revenues from Other Sources

Revenue from Land Value Capture (LVC)

Given the station’s conceptual design (see Section 3.4), lands owned and/or to be purchased by Metrolinx will contain one significant parcel (0.21 ha) that could potentially be redeveloped in the short- or long-term. This parcel represents potential revenue for Metrolinx in the form of land value capture, i.e., the ability to generate revenues from station land disposition, lease, or joint development. As the local market is conducive to new development, the value of this parcel (and its development density) is likely and the potential for land value capture.

Parcels with potential for land-value capture are as follows:

Parcel # Location/Description Approximate Area Land-Use Designation Parcel #1 Northeast corner of station (at primary entrance) 0.21 ha Mixed-Use Areas

Other revenues

The project could potentially generate additional revenue from other sources. The new station provides a potential opportunity for Metrolinx to increase its advertising, concession, and lease revenues. While ridership will contribute to potential retail sales, this alone will not generally be sufficient to create retail leasing opportunities. Access to other sources of retail traffic and sales (transit, pedestrian, and automotive) are also required. The examination and quantification of retail leasing and associated revenue generation is beyond the scope of this IBC. Subject to pedestrian accessibility, there is potentially more advertising, concession, and lease revenue-generation potential at this station location than at others.

5.3.6 Net Present Value

The Net Present Value of a station is a representation of the cumulative financial implications of the undertaking, considering the station’s capital costs, refurbishment costs, station and train operating costs, and impacts on fare revenues, over the 60-year lifecycle of the station. The costs are presented in current ($2015) dollars, and take into consideration the influence of inflation on the year in which the costs are expended, or the revenues attained.

The Net Present Value for Spadina is estimated to be approximately $300.2M (2015, discounted), and is driven largely by the gain of ridership and relatively low cost of implementation due to the lack of additional property required and minimal external station amenities proposed.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

5.3.7 Lifecycle Revenue to Cost Ratio

The net lifecycle revenue-to-cost ratio over the 60-year lifecycle of Spadina station is anticipated to be 7.51, indicating that the station could generate sufficient revenue to offset its construction and maintenance costs.

5.3.8 Operating Cost Recovery Ratio

The net operating cost recovery ratio over the 60-year lifecycle of Spadina station is anticipated to be 16.46, indicating that the station could generate sufficient revenue to offset its operation costs.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

5.4 Financial Case Sensitivity Scenarios

Implications for the Financial Case under the various sensitivity scenarios are discussed in the following table.

Table 5-4: Financial Case Sensitivity Scenarios

Scenario Options Description

 If the service concept was modified such that future express Barrie line trains bypassed the new station, negative impacts to riders using the station (inability to use express trains) may be outweighed by the time savings to riders not using the station. As a result, the net new revenue and net present value of the station may Scenario Option 2A (Service increase. Concept Sensitivity)  Further ridership modelling is required to quantify the impacts of the two potential service concepts.  Additionally, with fewer trains stopping, train operating costs could decrease, although this is unlikely to have a significant impact on the overall business case. Scenario Option 2B (Track  Option not considered for this IBC — no potential changes to track infrastructure Infrastructure Sensitivity) are proposed (B Track extension included in station concept)  The base case (Option 1) for the station assumes a 4.0-minute delay, higher than other stations due to the high numbers of forecasted alighting passengers as well as the off-line configuration of the platform.  Due to the planned B Track extension and constrained track infrastructure around the station location, the delay may be larger than the assumed value – in this Scenario Option 2C (Dwell Time case, the negative impacts in travel time to upstream passengers would be Sensitivity) increased and net new revenue and net present value of the station may decrease.  Further analysis in consideration of the potential station should include modelling of the proposed service concept, including impacts to other GO rail lines and the UP Express. Scenario Option 2D (Fare  Although the station would not provide service to the potential SmartTrack line, Sensitivity) there is nonetheless potential for fare integration with TTC.  Fare integration may increase the ridership (boardings and alightings) at the station; however, the net impacts to net new revenue and net present value would be dependent on the fare model adopted.  Significant development nearby to the station could result in substantial increases Scenario Option 2E (Horizon and to ridership at the station and improve the impact of the station on net new Land Use Sensitivity) revenue.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

6. Economic Case

6.1 Economic Case Summary

The Economic Case for Spadina indicates that the new station will attract new riders to the GO network. The station also results in travel-time savings for these new riders. A portion of new ridership will also shift away from personal automobiles and instead board or alight at station, reducing automobile use in the area.

Travel-time savings for new riders outweigh the travel-time delays for existing upstream GO riders due to an additional stop at Spadina. When net travel-time effects are considered, the station will result in a net economic benefit, as well as a net decrease in automobile use, compared to not building a new station at Spadina. Decreased automobile use will reduce vehicle operating costs, improve safety outcomes, and decrease greenhouse gas emissions.

Spadina’s transportation user and environmental impacts therefore amount to an estimated net benefit of $542.5 million over the station’s 60-year evaluation period. Capital and operating costs for the new station are estimated at $42.6 million, resulting in a net gain of $500.0 million. In benefit-cost terms, this represents a benefit-cost ratio of 12.7. This means that for every dollar spent on the new station, transportation users and society as a whole are expected to experience a benefit of $12.70.

In addition to these monetized impacts, the Economic Case provides a high-level qualitative assessment of the productivity gains, local real estate development, economic development opportunities (in terms of job creation and additional value added), and distributional impacts associated with the new station. Table 6-1 summarizes the key results of the Economic Case.

Table 6-1: Benefit-Cost Analysis Summary Results (Millions of 2015 $, Present Value)

Benefit-Cost Analysis Summary Results (Millions of 2015 $, PV) Spadina Travel Time Savings (Millions of Person-Hours) 2.7 Auto Distances Saved (Millions of VKTs) 1,755 Benefits $542.5 Costs $42.6 Net Present Value $500.0 Benefit-Cost Ratio 12.7 Transportation User Impacts $537.7 Travel Time Savings $18.2 Vehicle Operating Cost Savings $361.0 Decongestion on Road Network $120.1 Safety Impacts $38.4 Environmental Impacts $4.8

A legend is contained in Appendix D.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

6.2 Approach

The Economic Case highlights the overall value generated by the proposed station option(s). The benefit-cost analysis undertaken as part of the Economic Case documents and quantifies the project costs for the GTHA and Ontario, the transportation user impacts and the environmental outcomes which can be monetized and included in a cost-benefit analysis. The Economic Case does not consider incremental fare revenues because while they represent out-of-pocket costs to the users, they also represent a revenue gain to the transit operator, therefore offsetting each other overall. In other words, the GTHA is no better or worse off overall as a result of the change in fare revenue. All costs and benefits are stated in 2015 dollars. Once monetized and discounted, the economic and environmental impacts are compared to the capital and operating costs to derive the net present value and the benefit-cost ratio for the new station. The dollar figures below are in present value terms, using a real discount rate of 3.5% per year. Appendix A summarizes the economic case baseline assumptions.

6.3 Economic Criteria

The economic criteria examined in the cost-benefit assessment include the project costs, the transportation user impacts and the environmental impacts. In addition to the monetized impacts, the Economic Case considers the economic development impacts associated with the new station. These are assessed qualitatively. 6.3.1 Project Costs

6.3.1.1 Capital Costs

The project costs are based on the same cost estimates used in the Financial Case (see 0) but discounted using a real discount rate of 3.5%. Also, the economic assessment does not take into account land and property acquisition fees, which are considered a transfer between economic agents, as in the case of fare revenues.

Based on the station concept presented in Section 3.4, the order-of-magnitude station costs were estimated using a 50% contingency allowance and a 15% allowance for engineering, construction administration, and management. Over the 60-year lifespan of the project, the combined costs amount to an estimated total of approximately $21.9M ($2015, discounted).

6.3.1.2 Station Operating and Maintenance (O&M) Costs

For this Economic Analysis, the additional station operating costs associated with a proposed station at Spadina are anticipated to be $9.7M ($2015, discounted) over the 60-year lifecycle of the station.

6.3.1.3 Incremental Train Operating Costs

Spadina, serving the GO Barrie line, is expected to impose a 4-minute delay per train serving the station. This time is due to train deceleration, dwell time to serve passengers, and acceleration to return to operating speed. For this Economic Analysis, the additional train operating costs associated with Spadina are anticipated to be $10.9M ($2015, discounted) over the 60-year lifecycle of the station.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

6.3.2 Transportation User Impacts

The transportation user impacts consist of the travel time impacts, auto operating cost savings, decongestion impacts on the road network and road safety outcomes resulting from the new station. These benefits are monetized, discounted and incorporated into the benefit-cost analysis, as shown in Table 6-1 above.

6.3.2.1 Travel Time Savings

The travel time impacts are based on the same modelling process used to assess the change in ridership described above. The impacts are monetized using a value of time of $16.71 per hour which is assumed to rise at a real growth rate of 1.6% per year until 2044 and remain constant thereafter. Table 6-2 presents the travel time impacts by category of riders expressed in millions of passenger-hours and the total monetized travel time impacts over the time horizon.

The proposed Spadina station is estimated to result in significant net travel-time savings for new and existing passengers on the GO Barrie line. The station area is anticipated to be a destination for many existing passengers who would otherwise access the area via Union Station, requiring out-of-the-way travel. The resulting travel time savings for alighting passengers are estimated to be on the order of 22 minutes (existing passengers) and 30.7 minutes (new passengers). While passengers boarding at the station are anticipated to be relatively few when compared to those alighting, those boarding trains would be expected to benefit from significant travel time savings when compared to the alternative of accessing Barrie line service at Union Station. Travel time savings for passengers boarding at the station are expected to be 50 minutes per passenger.

For the 2031 horizon year for this analysis, the cumulative passenger travel time savings associated with the station are estimated to be on the order of 315,000 minutes per day. However, passengers on the GO Barrie line destined to stations beyond the proposed Spadina station would experience a notable delay as a result of the new station. It is anticipated that service to the station would result in an additional 4.0 minutes of delay per passenger. For the 2031 horizon year for this analysis, the cumulative passenger delays associated with the station are estimated to be on the order of 310,000 minutes per day.

Over the 60-year lifecycle of the station, the cumulative net total travel time savings are estimated to be on the order of 2.7M hours. When the value of time of $16.71/hour is applied, the net impacts of these travel time savings result in a total monetized transit user travel time savings of $18.2M ($2015, discounted).

Table 6-2: Travel Time Impacts (60-Year Period)

Travel Time Savings Spadina Total Travel Time Savings (Millions of Passenger-Hours) 2.7 Upstream Users –177.7 Existing Riders Boarding or Alighting at Station 70.3 New Riders Boarding or Alighting at Station 110.1 Existing Through Riders 0.0 New Through Riders 0.0 Total Travel Time Savings (Millions of 2015$, PV) $18.2

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

6.3.2.2 Change in Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKTs)

Behavioural changes may result from expected time savings or penalties generated by the new station. For upstream users, the time penalty might encourage a modal switch towards auto use, resulting in additional VKTs. On the other hand, a portion of new users boarding or alighting at the new station might be switching from automobiles, resulting in VKT savings.

The introduction of a Spadina station is anticipated to have a significant positive impact on personal automobile use through a net reduction of auto trips destined to the area. The station is expected to attract approximately 4,200 new passengers (as of 2031). The ridership forecast assumes that 20% of these riders will have diverted to GO rail service from an automobile. It is also estimated that these passengers’ auto trips were, on average, approximately 46 km in length prior to transferring to the GO service.

However, approximately 2,200 passengers will also be lost (as of 2031) as a result of the delays associated with the proposed Spadina station. Of these, the ridership forecast again assumes that 20% may be diverted to automobiles, with an average trip length of 47 km per passenger.

In the case of Spadina, there will be a resulting net reduction in VKTs over the lifecycle of the station, anticipated to be on the order of 1,755M vehicle-km.

Table 6-3: Changes in Auto Distances Traveled (60-Year Period)

Reduction in Auto Distances Traveled (Millions of VKTs) Spadina Upstream Users –2,032.0 Boarding or Alighting at New Station 3,786.7 Alighting Through 0.0 Total VKT Savings 1,754.7

6.3.2.3 Vehicle Operating Cost Savings

Vehicle operating costs consist of out-of-pocket costs borne by individuals driving their vehicle. They are estimated by applying a value of 63 cents per unit change in VKTs. The unit cost is assumed to rise at a real growth rate of 0.7% per year until 2044 and remain constant thereafter.

Application of the above-noted average unit vehicle operating cost suggests that the introduction of a Spadina station could result in a net savings of $361.0M in vehicle operating costs ($2015, discounted) over the lifecycle of the station.

6.3.2.4 Decongestion Impacts on Road Network

The decongestion impacts are estimated by applying a value of 16.7 cents per unit change in VKTs. The assessment also assumes this value rises at a real growth rate of 1.6% until 2044.

Application of the above-noted average unit road decongestion cost suggests that the introduction of a Spadina station could result in a net savings of $3.29M in road congestion costs in 2031, or $120.1M ($2015, discounted) over the lifecycle of the station.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

6.3.2.5 Safety Impacts

Automobile use carries a higher risk of death or injury than transit use. Consequently, any reduction in auto usage will result in a safety benefit. The safety benefits are monetized by applying a value of 8 cents to the change in VKTs to account for the accidents and collisions resulting from the changes in vehicle kilometres driven.

Application of the above-noted unit safety benefit cost savings suggests that the introduction of a Spadina station would result in a net decrease of $38.4M in safety-related costs ($2015, discounted) over the lifecycle of the station. 6.3.3 Environmental Impacts

6.3.3.1 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Impacts

Encouraging transit use results in lower emissions of greenhouse gases. The emission of greenhouse gases has an environmental cost associated with it, and the mode shift generated by the new station has a benefit that can be monetised. The change in greenhouse gases results from a reduction in auto vehicle-kilometres travelled from the mode shift away from auto use. The environmental impacts are monetized by applying a unit value of 1 cent per VKT saved. These benefits do not take into account the additional GHG emissions resulting from the additional train acceleration and deceleration at the new station.

Application of the above-noted unit GHG emission cost savings suggests that the introduction of a Spadina station may result in a net savings of $4.8M in GHG emission costs ($2015, discounted) over the lifecycle of the station. 6.3.4 Benefit Cost Analysis Results

6.3.4.1 Net Present Value (NPV)

The Net Present Value for Spadina is anticipated to be $500.0M, driven by a significant uptake in new ridership destined for the station area. New riders are estimated to be coming from an average distance of 45 km away, resulting in significant savings in vehicle operating costs and road decongestion costs. The relatively low cost of the station further contributes to its high NPV.

6.3.4.2 Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR)

The BCR is calculated by dividing total discounted benefits by total discounted costs (capital and operating). A ratio lower than 1 indicates that benefits do not cover costs over the lifecycle and that the option under consideration is destroying economic value. A ratio higher than 1 indicates that benefits exceed costs over the project’s lifecycle and that the option under consideration is creating economic value.

The net benefit-to-cost ratio of a new station at Spadina, over the 60-year lifecycle of the station, is anticipated to be 12.7.

6.3.5 Economic Development Impacts

This IBC considers the following economic development impacts: agglomeration economies, project spending, income/distributional impacts, and property and land value changes. These wider economic benefits are almost entirely incremental to the benefits calculated under the transportation impacts above. However, substantial work is needed to quantify these benefits. Hence, they are only assessed qualitatively at this stage.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

6.3.5.1 Wider Economic Benefits

The positive transportation user impacts assessed are likely to result in positive wider economic benefits. Agglomeration economies, the main source of wider economic benefits, represent the potential of a new station to bring jobs and economic activity closer together, leading to knowledge spill-overs, improved employer-employee matching, and other impacts that reduce transaction costs and encourage firm growth. These economies arise when a new station results in a reduction in generalized travel costs (i.e. time savings, reduced auto operating costs and any road decongestion benefits which reduce the effective distance between economic activities). In this case, the generalized journey costs decrease. Hence, we would expect positive wider economic impacts as a result of the introduction of the proposed station.

Other wider economic benefits include the impact of the station on imperfect competition and increased labour supply. The impact on imperfect competition represents the benefits resulting from increased competition between firms, spurring efficiency, innovation, reduced prices and increased consumer welfare. The increased labour supply refers more specifically to the increased tax revenues from increased labour force participation through improved access to employment resulting from lower travel costs. While further work is needed to quantify these wider economic benefits, they are likely to be positive given the positive transportation user impacts.

6.3.5.2 Economic Impacts

The economic impacts show how each dollar spent translates into direct and indirect output, employment and wages in the region. Impacts consist of both the temporary impacts expected to accrue as a result of the capital outlays to construct the new station and recurring annual impacts resulting from the operation of the station and additional train services. Hence, for the new station, the capital expenditure reported above is expected to create increased economic activity during the two-year construction period. In terms of operating expenditure, the impacts are expected to contribute only modestly to the region’s employment, earnings and GDP.

6.3.5.3 Income / Distributional Impacts

Adding a new station to the GO network contributes social/community benefits for different social groups, including the elderly population and lower income households.

The elderly population relies on regional and local transit for access to goods and services to meet their everyday needs in the regional and urban centres (such as medical services). Hence, the new station is expected to provide the elderly with an improved alternative to travelling by car to access services and to support their ability to travel with independence, thereby enhancing their quality of life. The new station could also support the creation of additional housing opportunities for the elderly population, closer to necessary services in the centres, as additional transit oriented development takes place near the station.

The lower income population also has a strong need for mobility choices and is particularly reliant on transit to access jobs, training and education. The new station could thus play a role in providing improved accessibility to key employment centres and enhance overall mobility options for the area. It could also offer additional opportunities for those living close to the station and will reduce the need for low income households to obtain access to a first or second car. Other social groups such as youth and school aged children may also be impacted. Further work is needed to fully assess the distributional impacts at the station.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

The median income in the station’s 800-m catchment area is 10% less than that of the GTHA as a whole, so the station may offer moderate equity benefits. Additional details about the station’s proximity to low-income neighbourhoods and designated Neighbourhood Improvement Areas are available in Section 4.5.4. Station accessibility is addressed in Section 3. 6.3.5.4 Property and Land Value Changes

The station’s potential for Metrolinx land value capture is addressed in Section 5.3.5. However, the construction of a new station at Spadina also has the potential to affect surrounding property values. This “land value uplift” is the increase in the catchment area’s assessed value base likely to result from the introduction or enhancement of higher order transit. Factors that can affect property value uplift potential (related to the development of higher-order transit) include travel time savings, current assessed property values, economic/market development potential, the extent and nature of developable land, public urban renewal/revitalization plans, private master development plans, the extent and nature of mobility hub plans, the extent and nature of land ownership, and the municipal, regional, and provincial regulatory environment.

Property value uplift is projected for the lands surrounding Spadina, totalling approximately $2.3B ($2015) by 2031. The majority of this value uplift will likely emanate from the existing assessed value base. Methodological details for this estimate are contained in Appendix C.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

6.4 Economic Case Sensitivity Scenarios

Implications for the Economic Case under the various sensitivity scenarios are discussed in the following table.

Table 6-4: Economic Case Sensitivity Scenarios

Scenario Options Description

 If the service concept was modified such that future express Barrie line trains bypassed the new station, negative impacts to riders using the station (inability to Scenario Option 2A (Service use express trains) may be outweighed by the time savings to riders not using the Concept Sensitivity) station. As a result, the positive impacts of the station on travel time savings, VKTs, emissions, and new revenue may be increased – further ridership modelling is required to quantify the impacts of the two potential service concepts. Scenario Option 2B (Track  Option not considered for this IBC — no potential changes to track infrastructure Infrastructure Sensitivity) are proposed (B Track extension included in station concept)  The base case (Option 1) for the station assumes a 4.0-minute delay, larger than other stations due to the high numbers of forecasted alighting passengers as well as the off-line configuration of the platform. Scenario Option 2C (Dwell Time  Due to the planned B Track extension and constrained track infrastructure around Sensitivity) the station location, the delay may be larger than the assumed value – in this case, the negative impacts in travel time to upstream passengers would be increased and the positive impacts of the station on travel time savings, VKTs, emissions, and new revenue may be reduced.  Although the station would not provide service to the potential SmartTrack line, there is nonetheless potential for fare integration with TTC. Scenario Option 2D (Fare  Fare integration may increase the ridership (boardings and alightings) at the Sensitivity) station and could increase the positive impacts of the station on travel time savings, VKTs, and emissions; however, the net impacts to net new revenue would be dependent on the fare model adopted.  Significant development nearby to the station could result in substantial increases Scenario Option 2E (Horizon and to ridership at the station and improve the net impact of the new station on travel Land Use Sensitivity) time savings, VKTs, emissions, and new revenue.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

7. Deliverability and Operations Case

7.1 Deliverability and Operations Case Summary

The proposed Spadina GO Station would be located off-line within a GO Transit layover yard west of Union Station. Construction of the station will depend heavily on the timing of the station’s implementation relative to that of the RER program itself. The station would eliminate train layover space, which could have significant operational impacts as the Regional Express Rail (RER) service is introduced and beyond. The station’s construction complexity would be low, but feasibility would need to be evaluated against system wide service planning. If layover space remains critical to operations, and no alternative layover can be identifed, the loss of storage tracks to passenger service may be unfeasible. Upon implementation of RER service, GO trains are expected to be providing service all day, and the need for capacity at the layover yard may be reduced, and yard space could then repurposed to accommodate the station.

Impacts associated with rail stations are generally more pronounced in areas where there are sensitive receptors, such as residential or institutional areas, natural features, or heritage resources. In the case of Spadina, impacts to sensitive receptors are expected to be marginal given the existing level of train activity. The proposed station would be located in a heavily urbanized area, and potential for impacts to significant natural environment features associated with the station is minimal. The station would be located in an area of existing heavy train use (and therefore significant existing noise and vibration as a result of train operations), and incremental impacts on adjacent residents are expected to be marginal.

Environmental impacts and mitigation measures associated with the station would be identified through an Environmental Assessment study and Transit Project Assessment Process (TPAP).

The station as proposed would present a key risk if an expanded facility were to be desired for the same location in the future (e.g., a larger terminal station); the initial concept must include full consideration of any final intended facility.

Table 7-1: Deliverability and Operations Case Summary Results

Deliverability and Operations Case Summary Spadina Compatible track alignment/grade at an unconstrained site, Constructability assuming implementation is coordinated with RER program Typical impacts expected, but in a high-density and heavily Stakeholder Impacts urbanized area Considerable room for station growth, although street-level Room for Growth amenities are constrained Approvals/Permits Required Only TPAP and normal permits required Reduced railyard storage capacity; may affect scheduling Operating Impacts and Union Station platform allocation, and cause conflicts with Union Pearson Express Implementation as proposed would present significant risk if Other Key Risks and Impacts station was to be expanded in the future; design must fully consider any final intended facility

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

7.2 Approach

The Deliverability and Operations Case provides evidence of the ease of constructing the station, operating service through the station, and the further steps required before a station can be implemented. This case also outlines the project risks known at this stage, such as disruption during construction and potential operating changes that affect the performance of the station. Except where otherwise specified (see Section 7.3.5), this IBC assumes that all local service trains on the Barrie line will stop at the new station, and that the overall GO service concept would otherwise be unaffected by the new station.

7.3 Deliverability and Operations Criteria 7.3.1 Constructability

Spadina would be located off-line within an existing GO Transit layover yard west of Union Station. The station would comprise an island platform north of the proposed Track B realignment, along an existing yard track. In order to accommodate the platform, three railyard berthing tracks would be removed and another realigned to provide a sufficient offset from the platform. Implementation of the proposed pedestrian tunnel, from the intersection of Spadina Avenue and Front Street West to the east end of the platform, would likely require removal, relocation, or reconstruction of an existing small yard building. The station’s track alignment and grade would be generally consistent with that of existing yard tracks.

Implementation of the proposed Spadina station will depend heavily on the timing of the station’s implementation relative to that of the RER program itself. The station is to be constructed within an existing train layover yard, where a number of existing GO trains are stored between peak service periods, loss of this capacity may have significant impact on operations, and is subject to further rail network planning. Upon commencement of RER service, however, trains are expected to be providing all-day service, which may reduce the need for layover capacity at the rail yard. In the case that the station is constructed following the start of RER service, there may likely be sufficient space within the yard for construction activities to occur without impacting rail service.

If, on the other hand, Spadina were to be implemented in advance of RER service commencing, the partial closure of the layover yard to accommodate track relocations and platform construction would result in reduced capacity at the yard, and therefore potential effects on off-peak train operations. 7.3.2 Stakeholder Impacts

Implementation of the proposed station would require an Environmental Assessment (EA) to identify the range of environmental impacts associated with the project, any mitigation measures needed to address these impacts, and commitments to address issues that would be more appropriately dealt with at later stages of the project. The EA process also includes a structured program of stakeholder consultations to assist with identifying impacts. It is difficult to anticipate all site-specific impacts prior to undertaking an EA, but some expected environmental impacts include those associated with:

 Noise and vibration (due to construction and operation of vehicles)  Air quality (relating to vehicle emissions, dust, etc.)  Built heritage (potential presence of heritage stations, buildings, bridges, culverts, landscapes)  Archaeology  Natural heritage (e.g., species at risk, wetlands, in-water works, vegetation)

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

 Traffic and changes to travel patterns as a result of the project (including and relating to disruption during construction, increased train crossings at-grade, etc.)  Socio-economic impacts

Regulatory processes are in place to ensure these impacts are addressed. There are numerous mitigation measures available for addressing impacts; some examples include noise walls, silt fences, dust suppression, and environmental monitoring. The nature of impacts varies with the type of infrastructure and nearby receptors. Stakeholders may also be affected by disruptions from utility relocations, traffic, noise, and other potential impacts mentioned above.

Corridor work including tracks, signals, and alterations to bridges and structures will also have impacts during both construction and ongoing operations.

Impacts are generally more pronounced in areas where there are sensitive receptors such as residential or institutional areas, natural areas, or areas with heritage resources present. In the case of Spadina, nearby residents are expected to be affected, although these residents already experience similar impacts associated with significant existing rail operations.

The Draper Street Heritage Conservation District, which comprises 29 designated heritage properties, lies directly north of the station site across Front Street West. There are no community facilities (schools, community centres, recreational facilities) immediately adjacent to the station site. Only minor property acquisitions are anticipated as a result of the implementation of the proposed Spadina station (see Section 3.4).

Spadina would be located in a heavily urbanized area, and the potential for impacts to significant natural environment features associated with the station is minimal. Any such impacts would be subject to further detailed assessment and consultation with the appropriate agencies (e.g., Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, Ministry of Natural Resources, etc.) during the Transit Project Assessment Process phase of the project. The station is not expected to affect Toronto’s Natural Heritage System, nor any Areas of Natural and Scientific Interest (ANSI) or Environmentally Significant Areas.

Rail traffic along the Union Station corridor is and will continue to be a source of noise and vibration impacts for adjacent properties. With the increase in train traffic associated with the proposed RER program, it is anticipated that noise and vibration impacts will also increase. In addition, train deceleration and acceleration associated with new service to Spadina would be expected to result in further noise and air-quality impacts to adjacent sensitive receptors, including residential developments adjacent to the rail corridor. However, these residents are currently experiencing similar impacts associated with GO Transit and Via Rail operations in the corridor, and as such, the incremental impacts of a new Spadina station would be less than at an entirely new station site. Potential noise impacts associated with the new station will require further evaluation through an Environmental Assessment study in accordance with MOE, City of Toronto, and GO Transit noise protocols.

Spadina is proposed to be situated entirely within an existing rail corridor. This poses contamination-related concerns typical of rail facilities. The construction of station elements (such as the platform and pedestrian tunnels) would likely require excavation and removal of potentially contaminated materials including contaminated rail ballast, bedding and fill material associated with the use of slag, coal cinders, and ash. Excess soil will require waste classification in accordance with applicable regulatory requirements. Regulatory requirements in place at the time of construction, as well as excess materials management guidelines and specifications, would have to be used when developing an excess materials management plan in accordance with MOE standards, Ontario Regulation 153/04, and Ontario Provincial Standard Specification 180 (General Specification for the Management of Excess Materials).

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

During typical rail operations, potential risks associated with contamination are limited to spills including diesel, oil, etc. These may result in site contamination within the rail corridor. 7.3.3 Room for Growth

The station site offers a considerable footprint for growth of the station in the future, provided that the need to layover trains in off-peak periods is eliminated by the implementation of the RER program. Metrolinx has indicated operational concerns that preclude serving additional rail lines (other than the Barrie line) at Spadina without significant structural modifications to the Bathurst and Spadina bridge structures, as well as significant track work.

Given the limited street-level area available adjacent to the station, the station presents no potential to implement any notable street-level station amenity expansions. 7.3.4 Approvals/Permits Required

Transit Project Assessment Process (TPAP)

The proposed station would require a provincial environmental approval. Ontario Regulation 231/08 (Transit Projects and Metrolinx Undertakings) exempts proponents of all public transit projects from the requirements under Part II of the Ontario Environmental Assessment (EA) Act (EAA), and establishes a process that applicable projects must follow in order to be exempt. Ontario Regulation 231/08 outlines a six-month “Transit Project Assessment Process” (TPAP), which a proponent must follow for certain classes of transit projects including the development of new stations within or adjacent to residential land uses (i.e., this project). The TPAP provides a framework for a focused consultation process so that an assessment of a project’s potential environmental impacts can be completed within six months.

Canadian Environmental Assessment Act (CEAA)

Under the current Canadian Environmental Assessment Act (CEAA, 2012), which came into effect on July 6, 2012, proponents of “designated” projects are required to follow a federal environmental assessment process. A new station at Spadina would not meet the definition of a “designated” project under the CEAA, and it is therefore not anticipated that this station would require approval under the CEAA.

Other approvals required

In order to implement the station, Metrolinx may need to secure additional permits and approvals. The following list of permits and approvals reflects those typical of this type of project in the City of Toronto:

 Planning review (such as Site Plan Approval or equivalencies) for above-grade structures and facilities (through the City of Toronto)  Building permits for the passenger services building, elevator/stair accesses, and pedestrian tunnels  Permit(s) to Take Water (from the Ministry of the Environment), for locations where dewatering exceeds 50,000 litres per day  Stormwater management, in accordance with City of Toronto, Toronto and Region Conservation Authority (TRCA), and Ministry of the Environment requirements  Sewer discharge approvals, in accordance with City of Toronto and TRCA requirements  Environmental Compliance Approvals for Air Quality and Noise in accordance with the Environmental Protection Act (through the MOE)  Permits for construction within existing road allowances (through the City of Toronto)

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

 Applicable Ontario Energy Board approvals for utility relocations  City of Toronto Bylaws (including Ravine, Natural Feature Protection, Private Tree, Street Tree, and Parks) are to be complied with, as applicable. Metrolinx must obtain all necessary permits from the City of Toronto for tree protection/removal upon confirmation of the impacts to applicable trees.

The specific requirements for the above-noted permits and approvals would be identified throughout the TPAP phase of the project. 7.3.5 Operating Impacts

The proposed concept would require Barrie trains to use the USRC B Track to access and egress the station. Operationally, this may affect the scheduling of other trains using the B Track and B Track extension to and from Union Station. There may also be effects on platform allocation at Union Station due to the modified Barrie route. The new station may also result in Barrie line delays and/or conflicts with the Union Pearson Express as a result of frequent Union Pearson Express service in the Union Station Rail Corridor.

The station concept as proposed would require the removal of three yard tracks, reducing the storage capacity of the Bathurst North Yard from seven to four 12-car consists. As network operation planning for RER is still underway, the need for lay-by areas in proximity to the Union Station has yet to be determined. As such, the degree to which the Spadina station would impact future operations cannot be evaluated at this time. 7.3.6 Other Key Risks and Impacts

The implementation of the proposed concept for Spadina would present a risk if an expanded facility were to be desired for the same location in the future (e.g., if the station was intended as an initial move towards a larger terminal station), particularly if the remainder of the Bathurst North Yard is converted to alternative uses in the interim. It is essential that the initial concept and any interim development within or above the railyard be designed with full consideration of a final intended facility. Specific protection measures (such as detailing appropriate column locations for vertical development) will be required to ensure the facility’s potential to be expanded in the future.

7.4 Deliverability and Operations Case Sensitivity Scenarios

Implications for the Deliverability and Operations Case under the various sensitivity scenarios are discussed in the following table:

Scenario Options Description

 If the service concept was modified such that future express Barrie line trains Scenario Option 2A (Service bypassed the new station, the Operating Impacts described in Section 7.3.5 may Concept Sensitivity) be decreased. Scenario Option 2B (Track  Option not considered for this IBC — no potential changes to track infrastructure Infrastructure Sensitivity) are proposed (B Track extension included in station concept) Scenario Option 2C (Dwell Time  Not anticipated to significantly affect the Delivery and Operations Case Sensitivity) Scenario Option 2D (Fare  Not anticipated to significantly affect the Delivery and Operations Case Sensitivity) Scenario Option 2E (Horizon and  Not anticipated to significantly affect the Delivery and Operations Case Land Use Sensitivity)

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

8. Conclusions and Findings

As a potential new GO station on the Barrie line, Spadina offers numerous benefits including its low cost and complexity, increased GO ridership, crowding relief at Union Station, and strong financial performance. Spadina’s policy alignment and contribution to GO ridership growth are complemented by its ease of construction, a positive net present value, and broader societal benefits. The assessment of Spadina’s potential concludes that the station performs well in the Financial and Economic Cases, and moderately in the Strategic and Deliverability & Operations Cases, though ultimate feasibility requires further analysis of the operation impact of losing train layover space.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

Appendix A: Financial and Economic Case Baseline Assumptions

Model Input Assumptions Metric Source(s)

Project Evaluation Period (Years) 60 Guidance Handbook_Feb2016.xls Year of Cost Estimates 2015 Guidance Handbook_Feb2016.xls Annual inflation rate – General Price Level 2% RER Initial Business Case (June 2015) AECOM estimate based on 5-year average of non- Annual Inflation Rate – Construction Spending 2% residential construction price index in Toronto (Statistics Canada) 250 (peak) RER Initial Business Case (June 2015) Annualization Factor (days/year) 300 (off-peak) Business Case Development Handbook (Tier 3) Discount Rate, Nominal (%)8 5.5% RER Initial Business Case (June 2015) Construction Period (start and end dates) 2022-2023 RER Initial Business Case (June 2015) Discount Rate, Real (%) 3.5% RER Initial Business Case (June 2015) Value of Time ($/hr in 2015$) $16.71 Guidance Handbook_Feb2016.xls Value of Time Annual Growth Rate, Real (%) 1.6% (2015-2044) Metrolinx Legacy Approach (Benefits cases) and capped in 2044 Auto Operating Cost ($/VKT) $0.63 Metrolinx Legacy Approach (Benefits cases) Auto Operating Cost Growth Rate, Real (%) 0.7% Metrolinx Legacy Approach (Benefits cases) Decongestion on Road Network($/VKT) $0.167 Metrolinx Legacy Approach (Benefits cases) Decongestion on Road Network Growth Rate, Real 1.6% Metrolinx Legacy Approach (Benefits cases) (%) Accident Reduction Benefit ($/VKT) $0.08 Metrolinx Legacy Approach (Benefits cases) Greenhouse Gas Emission (GHG) Costs in CO2e $0.01 Metrolinx Legacy Approach (Benefits cases) ($/VKT) Ridership annual growth rate – Lakeshore W (%) 2.4% to 2044 MX TT Savings Spreadsheet v2.9 Ridership annual growth rate – Milton (%) 1.3% to 2044 MX TT Savings Spreadsheet v2.9 Ridership annual growth rate – Kitchener (%) 4.6% to 2044 MX TT Savings Spreadsheet v2.9 Ridership annual growth rate – Barrie (%) 6.8% to 2044 MX TT Savings Spreadsheet v2.9 Ridership annual growth rate – Richmond Hill (%) 2.2% to 2044 MX TT Savings Spreadsheet v2.9 Ridership annual growth rate – Stouffville (%) 4.0% to 2044 MX TT Savings Spreadsheet v2.9 Ridership annual growth rate – Lakeshore E (%) 2.5% to 2044 MX TT Savings Spreadsheet v2.9 MX Travel Time Savings Spreadsheet Simulation 2031 MX TT Savings Spreadsheet v2.9 Year

8 Financial analysis is typically conducted in nominal currency (i.e. dollars expressed in year or period of spending). The nominal discount rate used should be consistent with the real discount rate used in cost-benefit analysis (see Section 6). The Metrolinx Business Case Handbook (tier 3) suggests the use of a real discount rate (i.e. after the inflation component is removed) of 3.5% for the benefit-cost analysis and an inflation rate of 2% for the financial analysis. Hence, this would imply that the relevant nominal discount rate for financial analysis should be 5.5%.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

Appendix B: Travel Time Savings Analysis

Introduction

The analysis of alternative new stations relies upon a consideration of the changes in traveller behaviour that would occur in response to the presence of the proposed new stations. The stations provide new options for both existing GO Rail users and users of other transportation modes (other transit and auto). Existing GO Rail users may also be negatively impacted by the added stop at the new station. Examining travel time savings and delays associated with each new station is therefore the focal point of this analysis.

The new stations can have both positive and negative effects on transit passenger travel times:

 Passengers who use the new stations save travel time. The station access or egress time is lower than it would be without the new station, when access/egress would have been to the next closest station.  Passengers who do not use the new stations can experience a travel delay, due to the extra time required for the train trip to stop at the new station, typically 2-3 min. per station.

As a result of the travel time savings and delays, some travellers may shift their route or mode of transportation. There will be both gains and losses of RER passengers due to these route and mode shifts. Some passengers may be attracted to RER by the new stations and shift from non-GO routes to an RER trip or a combined RER+subway/bus trip. Other passengers may be diverted from RER due to the longer total travel time caused by the new station and shift from an RER trip to a subway/bus trip or a driving trip.

To account for the impacts of these new stations on passengers, it is helpful to categorize the different types of passengers into the five groups shown in Table 2.

Table 2: Segmentation of demand into five groups of passengers that experience a new station differently.

Would ride Would ride Accesses/ GO Rail Effect of new Passenger GO Rail egresses Description without station(s) on Type with new via new new travel time? station(s)? station(s)? station(s)? Existing & unaffected GO Rail riders No Change Group A    (“downstream” or express riders) (no delay or savings) Existing “upstream” GO Rail riders Group B   Delayed  (affected but do not change behaviour) Shift GO Rail access/egress station Group C   Time Savings  (existing but would prefer new station) Attracted to GO Rail (shift route/mode Group D   Time Savings  due to easier access/egress) Diverted from GO Rail (existing, shift Group E   Delayed  route/mode due to delay) Note: “downstream” means locations closer to Union Station than the new station site.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

Combining these groups of passengers in different manners helps to understand what happens to overall GO Rail ridership at each new station:

 C + D = Gross riders that access/egress at the new station(s)  D – E = Net new riders on the GO Rail system due to the new station(s)  B, C, D, E: all affected by addition of new stations, and experience either a positive or negative time impact. The impact is different for each group.

The primary drivers of travel time savings benefits and offsetting impacts can be summarized as follows:

 Drivers of Travel Time Savings o High employment or full-time post-secondary institution within 1 km of the station (i.e., surrounding land uses attract AM peak alighting riders). o New boarding riders within 1km of station (i.e., ability to walk to station). o A “through” service stopping at the station after letting most passengers off at Union Station (i.e., very little or no “upstream” existing riders are delayed).  Offsets to Travel Time Savings o High number of “upstream” passengers that are delayed with no express service option to bypass the new station. o High delay at station (e.g., on slower accelerating diesel locomotive-hauled trip). o Presence of an attractive parallel transit service (e.g., TTC subway) that may compete with the new station.

Alighting riders and new boarding riders that are within 1km of a new station are generally the most significant drivers of benefits since these riders are dependent on walking and/or transit for station access/egress. Access/egress by these modes can be quite time consuming and a new station can offer significant time savings relative to the case without the station in place, depending on the geography and configuration of the local area transit network.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

Analysis Framework

A spreadsheet analysis framework was developed to provide estimates of travel time savings associated with each new station. The foundation for this analysis is observed 2013 GO Passenger Survey and Cordon Count data that is applied in an incremental manner for each new station. Although travel time savings is the focus of this analysis, the approach also generates estimates of vehicle kilometre reductions, ridership changes, and revenue estimates. An overview of the analysis approach is shown in Figure 5.

Figure 5: Overview of analysis approach

The analysis builds off of observed 2013 data by primarily considering what would happen if each station existed in 2013 along with the RER express/local/through service structure and the speed improvements associated with electrification. New station boardings and alightings are estimated by considering existing ridership patterns and the boarding and alighting markets that each new station may serve in the AM peak. Observed ridership at similar benchmark stations is also examined to support the analysis where applicable. Travel time savings and delays associated with the new station are estimated by considering the access/egress times and the operating parameters of the RER services that serve and pass through each station. Next, annual line level ridership growth rates obtained from the Greater Golden Horseshoe Model (a four-stage regional travel demand model) are used to expand the 2013 metrics to a 2031 level. Finally, a dollar valuation of benefits and a 60-year cash flow analysis is conducted.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

Assumptions

Key assumptions that have been applied within this framework are summarized below:

 RER ridership and annual growth rates: Application of line level ridership growth rates obtained from the Greater Golden Horseshoe travel demand model to 2013 metrics. This captures the effects of population/employment growth across the region, the effects of the RER service introduction, and other committed rapid transit projects that are expected to be in place by 2031. This approach assumes that the demand growth at each new station site will be similar to line level demand growth between 2013 and 2031.  Station area development: Major developments that are committed and proceeding close to potential station sites in downtown Toronto are included (The Well at Spadina/Front St. W, Globe & Mail Centre at King E/Berkley, and Corus Quay & George Brown College). New development that is conditional on the presence of a new station is excluded from this analysis. Proposed new development that has the potential to significantly alter land use in the vicinity, but has not been approved is addressed as a sensitivity as part of each case. Development potential and real estate market demand are addressed more broadly in sections 4.4.2 and 4.4.3 respectively.  Independent analysis of new stations: The new stations are analyzed independently and their riders and benefits are considered separately. For the stations under consideration, this is deemed appropriate since the level of interaction between the new stations is not expected to be very significant; relatively few trips are expected to occur between each of the new stations (i.e. boarding at one new station and alighting at another new station).  Boarding activity by station: Starting assumption is average of two adjacent stations on same line. However, this default is adjusted based on local circumstances and observed ridership data at relevant benchmark stations. Existing riders are separated into two pools: 1) “Existing Near” – Riders within 1km of each station site; and 2) “Existing Far” - Riders who are between new and existing stations. Existing riders who are near new stations are likely to divert from another station, while riders who are further away are split between the new station and competing existing stations.  Delays to upstream passengers: Delays associated with the new station vary depending on the technology (electrified trains are faster than diesel trains – less stopping delay) and line speeds (more delay if new station is where trains would normally be travelling at high speed) for the train services that will serve the station location. Passengers on express services that do not stop at the new station are not delayed.  Time savings per rider: Primarily depends on: 1) boarding vs. alighting activity (all alighting activity egresses by walk/transit which will have a higher time savings); 2) access mode (auto/transit access minutes saved per trip will generally be low but walk access can be higher – default access assumption is based on adjacent station access mode splits); 3) origin/destination point (near or far from new station?); and 4) Existing rider vs. rider who is new to GO.  Alighting activity for stations near downtown core: Two approaches are used: 1) Benchmark (considers existing Exhibition station ridership as a benchmark and adjusts it by considering the number of trains serving the new station and jobs within 1km); 2) Sector-Based (involves dividing the station’s 1km catchment area into approximately 13 sectors with a separate ridership and time savings calculation for each sector). All downtown stations between Lansdowne/Dundas and Gerrard/Pape use the more detailed sector-based approach.  Fares: Assumes today’s transit fare structure.  Services through Union Station: Kitchener/Stouffville “through” service is included, which is important to the attractiveness of “destination” stations within downtown. Although many Kitchener and Stouffville trains are expected to go out of service after Union Station, a partial set of services will operate through Union. As an example, this would allow a passenger boarding at Agincourt to access a potential new station at Liberty Village.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

Appendix C: Land Value Uplift Analysis

Cushman & Wakefield Valuation & Advisory [C&W V&A] completed a mid-level analysis (neither order-of-magnitude nor fully detailed) of the potential for property value uplift within the 800-meter catchment areas surrounding the station. The analysis examined the potential impacts of a new station on the existing property tax assessment, as well as on the potential to generate new property tax assessment, in order to estimate potential property value uplift. The analysis does not generate a precise estimate of value uplift potential at each individual station, but rather can be used broadly to compare the relative potential for land value uplift at each station under consideration.

Approach

The following bullet points summarize the approach to determining the potential extent of existing assessed value uplift within the station’s catchment area:

 C&W V&A received data on total existing property tax assessment within the station’s catchment area from the Municipal Property Assessment Corporation.

 C&W V&A reviewed a prior study previously completed by C&W V&A on the impacts of higher-order transit on property values (across North America and worldwide). This analysis concluded that higher-order transit results in an average 18% increase in property values.

 Given the more established and mature nature of higher-order and other public transit systems within the City of Toronto, Vaughan, and the GTA (compared to other North American municipalities examined in the aforementioned study), C&W V&A’s preliminary opinion was that the establishment of RER will likely result in a maximum 12% property value uplift (a third less than the average from the aforementioned study). C&W V&A believe that property value uplifts of 10% could occur at some station locations, but not uplifts of 15%.

 The above-mentioned study identified the following causal factors in property value uplift:

o time travel savings (in this case to Union Station) o relative assessed values o economic/market development potential o extent/nature of developable vacant land o public urban renewal/revitalization plans o private master development plans o nature/extent of mobility hub plans o nature/size of land ownership o city/state regulatory environment

 C&W V&A assigned a weighting to each of the above factors, and then scored each station location and catchment area on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 indicating the least impact and 10 indicating the most impact.

 C&W V&A then correlated the overall score to the aforementioned maximum 12% existing property value uplift rate. Stations with lower scores were assigned lower percentages of existing property value uplift. Stations with higher scores were assigned higher percentages of existing property value uplift, to a maximum of 12% for a station that scored 10 out of 10.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

 The scores for each criterion were based upon empirical information where available. Empirical and/or geographic information was available on travel time savings to Union Station, relative assessed values, economic/market development potential, the extent/nature of developable land, and the nature/size of land ownership. Urban planning and market knowledge drove scoring on public urban renewal/revitalization plans, private master development plans, the nature/extent of mobility hub plans, and the city/state regulatory environment.

New development within the catchment area will also result in an increase in the assessed value base for each station’s catchment area. The following bullet points summarize the approach to determining this increase:

 Urban Strategies Inc. estimated the amount of development potential (gross floor area, units) that could theoretically occur within the catchment area, based upon a review of existing development applications and an estimation of development potential on “soft sites” with redevelopment opportunity.

 C&W V&A applied current order-of-magnitude property value benchmarks to each property type (asset class) to determine the magnitude of assessed value increase that might result before consideration of the potential value uplift impacts of RER. For example, if USI identified 9,290 sq. m of residential development potential within a catchment area, C&W V&A multiplied that density by a current residential condominium value benchmark; using this approach, the assumption of a $46.45-per-sq.-m condominium value would result in an assessed value increase of $50 million.

 Given that the establishment of RER will affect both existing and new property values, the resulting total potential assessed value resulting from new development was then multiplied by the property value uplift percentage (ranging from 0% to 12%), as determined during the previous analysis. This results in the potential increase in assessed value of future new development within the catchment area as a result of RER.

 Station catchment areas will likely not achieve full buildout in all asset classes; market demand will constrain development. Accordingly, C&W V&A reduced the total assessed value emanating from new development, to broadly reflect estimated market absorption between 2016 and 2031. For example, if USI identified 9,290 sq. m of residential development potential in a station’s catchment area, but C&W V&A broadly estimated demand of 4,645 sq. m, then only 4,645 sq. m was multiplied by the residential condominium value benchmark.

 Market demand estimates are based on historic and current demand trends. It is likely that RER service will, at some station locations, result in increased market demand. These market demand estimates and associated value uplift projections may therefore be somewhat conservative. Conversely, it is entirely possible that future demand, at some locations and for some land uses, may be less than historically experienced. More detailed analysis of the potential impacts of RER on market demand and value uplift can be completed as part of subsequent, more in-depth RER business case analyses.

The resulting increases in existing and potential future assessed values were then summed to determine the total potential land value uplift under two scenarios:

1. Full build-out by 2031 2. Market demand-based development by 2031

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

The following table summarizes land value uplift scores by station, which were used to determine existing assessed value uplift.

Value Uplift Score Summary by Station (max. 10 score)

Bathurst Bloor St. Clair W. St. Clair W. Hwy Station Name… King West Lawrence Ellesmere Spadina Davenport (Barrie) (Kitchener) 7/Concord

Criterion % Weighting Travel Time Saving to Union Station 15.0% 8 5 6 7 6 7 3 3

Relative Assessed Values 25.0% 4 6 6 7 6 8 9 9 Economic / Market Development Potential 25.0% 9 10 7 1 1 1 1 1

Extent / Nature of Developable Vacant Land 15.0% 5 6 6 10 10 10 9 10 Public Urban Renewal / Revitalization Plans 2.5% 6 4 4 2 2 8 2 2

Private Master Development Plans 2.5% 8 4 6 2 3 7 3 2 Nature / Extent of Mobility Hub Plans 2.5% 1 1 10 1 1 10 1 1

Nature / Size of Land Ownership 10.0% 10 10 10 5 9 7 9 7 City / State Regulatory Environment 2.5% 3 3 3 3 3 7 3 3

Weighted Score 100.0% 6.7 6.9 6.7 5.4 5.3 6.3 5.4 5.4

The following table summarizes the overall score for each station and the resulting percentage uplift in existing assessed values.

Value Uplift Percentage Summary

Score Uplift in Existing # Station Name max. 10 Asessments Values

1 Bathurst/Spadina 6.7 9% 2A Liberty Village 6.9 9%

3 Bloor/Davenport* 4.4 6%

4 St. Clair West (Barrie Line) 5.4 7% 5 St. Clair West (Kitchener Line) 5.3 7% 6B Highway 7/Concord 6.3 8% 7 Lawrence 5.4 7% 8 Ellesmere 5.4 7% *score is discounted by 33% due to an existing GO Station within 800m

The following table summarizes the impacts of RER on assessed value based on maximum development potential, stated in $2016.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

Impacts of RER on Assessed Values Based Upon Maximum Development Potential ($2016)

2016 2031

Assessed Value of Assessed Value of Uplift In Assessed # Station Name Uplift In Existing Total Assessed New Development New Development Value of New Assessed Values Value Uplift (before uplift) (after uplift) Development

$ millions $ millions $ millions $ millions $ millions 1 Bathurst/Spadina $1,672 $8,731 $9,514 $783 $2,455 2A Liberty Village $722 $2,589 $2,829 $240 $962

3 Bloor/Davenport $215 $3,744 $3,965 $221 $436 4 St. Clair West (Barrie Line) $166 $581 $623 $41 $208 5 St. Clair West (Kitchener Line) $127 $1,126 $1,206 $80 $207 6B Highway 7/Concord $53 $4,543 $4,925 $382 $434 7 Lawrence $80 $5,564 $5,966 $402 $483 8 Ellesmere $84 $1,376 $1,474 $98 $182

The following table summarizes the impacts of RER on assessed values based on market demand, stated in $2016. It is the opinion of C&W V&A that a market demand-based analysis is much more realistic than a theoretically based build-out analysis.

Impacts of RER on Assessed Values Based Upon Market Demand ($2016) 2016 2031 Uplift In Assessed Assessed Uplift In Total Uplift in Existing # Station Name Existing Value of New Value of New Assessed Value Total Assessed Assessed Assessed Values Assessed Development Development of New Value Uplift Value Values (before uplift) (after uplift) Development $ millions % $ millions $ millions $ millions $ millions $ millions 1 Bathurst/Spadina $18,644 9% $1,672 $7,276 $7,928 $652 $2,324 2A Liberty Village $7,808 9% $722 $1,873 $2,046 $173 $895 3 Bloor/Davenport $3,644 6% $215 $1,105 $1,170 $65 $280 4 St. Clair West (Barrie Line) $2,330 7% $166 $471 $504 $34 $200 5 St. Clair West (Kitchener Line) $1,790 7% $127 $599 $642 $43 $170 6B Highway 7/Concord $628 8% $53 $659 $715 $55 $108 7 Lawrence $1,107 7% $80 $0 $0 $0 $80 8 Ellesmere $1,174 7% $84 $0 $0 $0 $84

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

Conclusions

The above analysis indicates that Spadina is likely to realize land value uplift through the implementation of RER. Value uplift is also likely to occur at Liberty Village. Much more limited value uplift is likely to occur at Bloor- Davenport, St. Clair West (Barrie), St. Clair West (Kitchener), and Highway 7-Concord. Limited value uplift is likely to occur at Lawrence East or at Ellesmere.

Assumptions and Limiting Conditions

All of the preceding analyses are high-level and primarily order-of-magnitude. The analyses are driven by a series of assumptions that are subject to interpretation. Even minor changes in assumptions can cumulatively cause changes in results. Accordingly, this methodology does not result in a precise estimate of value uplift potential at each individual station. Rather, it estimates broad, relative differences in potential value uplift levels.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

Appendix D: Criteria Ranges

Business Major Criteria Not Supportive Neutral Supportive Case

Strategic Policy Alignment Does not support most policy Supports most policy Supports all policy

>150 P+J/ha (>30,000 P+J) Development Potential 50–150 P+J/ha Strategic < 50 P+J/ha (<10,000 P+J) OR 50-150 P+J/ha with high and Intensification (10,000-30,000 P+J) development potential Low Existing Demand Low Existing Demand Moderate Existing Demand Real Estate Strategic AND AND AND Market Demand Low Future Demand Moderate Future Demand Significant Future Demand Natural In a sensitive Within 800 m of a sensitive Outside of 800 m of Strategic Environment environmental feature environmental feature environmental feature

Operational < 1.5 km to nearest 1.5–3 km to nearest > 3km to nearest Strategic System existing station existing station existing station

Connectivity and < 0 Net new daily 0–3,000 net new daily > 3,000 net new daily Strategic Ridership Drivers GO boardings GO boardings GO boardings

Strategic Station Access 2/5 modes 3/5 modes 4/5 modes

Social Inclusivity Does not serve NIA Fully serves NIA Fully Serves NIA Strategic and Accessibility AND <3.5% Change in ATT OR >3.5% Change in ATT AND >3.5% Change in ATT Incremental Financial GO Ridership < 0 0 to 40 > 40 (Millions of Trips)

Financial Fare Revenue (A) < $0M $0m to $50M > $50M

Financial Total Costs (B) > $150M $150M to $50M < $50M

Financial Capital Costs > $75M $75M to $25M < $25M

Financial Operating Costs (C) > $35M $35M to $25M < $25M

Financial Net Present Value < –$50M –$50M to $50M > $50M

Revenue to Cost Financial < 0 (all-loss) 0 to 1 > 1 Ratio (A/B)

Operating Cost Financial < 0 (all-loss) 0 to 2 > 2 Recovery Ratio

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina – draft

Business Major Criteria Not Supportive Neutral Supportive Case Travel Time Savings Economic (Millions of < 0 0 to 10 > 10 Person-Hours) Auto Distances Saved Economic < 0 0 to 250 > 250 (Millions of VKTs)

Economic Benefits < $0M $0M to $100M > $100M

Economic Costs > $125M $125M to $50M < $50M

Economic Net Present Value < –$150M –$150 to $10M > $10M

Economic Benefit-Cost Ratio < 0 (all-loss) 0 to 1 > 1

Transportation Economic < $0M $0M to $50M > $50M User Impacts

Economic Travel Time Savings < $0M $0M to $55M > $55M

Vehicle Operating Economic < $0M $0M to $75M > $75M Cost Savings

Decongestion on Economic < $0M $0M to $30M > $30M Road Network

Economic Safety Impacts < $0M $0M to $10M > $10M

Environmental Economic < $0M $0M to $1M > $1M Impacts Track geometry compatible with Track geometry compatible with Deliverability & Track geometry not Constructability station AND station AND Operations compatible with station Significant site constraints minimal site constraints Significant disruption to Minor to no construction noise, surrounding area during Construction noise and dust in Deliverability & Stakeholder dust, and street closure impacts construction including noise, high density area, possibility of Operations Impacts and minor to no environmental dust, traffic, or environmental environmental impacts impacts impacts No ability for station to grow due Limited ability for station to grow Deliverability & Room for Ability of growth with new track to track constraints and land due to track constraints and land Operations Growth layouts and land acquisition acquisition acquisition TPAP, normal permits, and two Deliverability & Approvals/Permits TPAP, normal permits, and one Only a TPAP and normal other unique permits or Operations Required unique permit or approval construction permits approvals Deliverability & Operating Major operating impacts Moderate operating impacts Minor operating impacts Operations Impacts

Deliverability & Other Key Risks Significant unique situation Minor unique situation No other key risks or impacts Operations and Impacts