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AECOM Report 1.Dot RER New Stations Initial Business Case SPADINA Barrie Corridor July 2016 Draft Draft: v1.2 Metrolinx Client ref: 150400 RER New Stations Initial Business Case SPADINA Draft Prepared by: Prepared for: Urban Strategies Inc. Metrolinx 197 Spadina Avenue, Suite 600 97 Front Street West Toronto, ON Canada M5T 2C8 Toronto, ON M5J 1E6 RER New Stations Initial Business Case June 2016 Note to the reader: The Initial Business Case (IBC) represents a primary input into the evaluation and recommendation of New Stations. Final recommendation of new station site selection considers, in addition to the four cases of the IBC, network fit, and other strategic considerations including priorities of the various levels of government. Network fit addresses system-wide issues and impact on the overall performance of the rail corridor. IBC results do not represent the final recommendations of the GO RER New Stations Evaluation process. IBC results inform the process outlined in the GO RER New Stations Summary and Ranking Report, which is to be posted in the near future. For more information visit: http://www.metrolinx.com/en/regionalplanning/newstations/ The final list of recommended stations is included in the June 28, 2016 GO Regional Express Rail Update report to Metrolinx Board of Directors. 97 Front Street West 97, rue Front Ouest Toronto, Ontario M5J 1E6 Toronto (Ontario) M5J 1E6 RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina– draft Executive Summary This Initial Business Case (IBC) examines the potential for a new GO station, Spadina, along the GO Barrie line. The station is proposed immediately south of Front Street West, between Bathurst Street and Spadina Avenue in the North Bathurst Yard. The station is conceived as a single island platform with two pedestrian tunnels providing access to the platform from Front Street West, with the potential for a third connection from the existing Puente de Luz pedestrian bridge. A new GO station at Spadina could help to relieve crowding at Union Station and would serve a high-density of residential and employment uses while also improving access to tourism and other destinations. Key findings of this IBC for Spadina include: Strategic Case: The station aligns with current provincial, local, transportation, and land-use policy, and would generate a net increase of more than 6,000 daily riders on the Barrie line. The station would serve the Downtown Toronto Urban Growth Centre, which is anticipated to continue growing and intensifying at a rapid pace. It would also help to relieve crowding at Union Station by enabling passengers destined west of downtown to alight nearer their destinations. Financial Case: The construction and operation of a new station at Spadina may generate a positive net present value (NPV) of $300.2 million over a 60-year time horizon. This NPV combines capital expenditures and recurring station and train operating costs, combined estimated at $46.1 million, with a projected increase in fare revenue of $346.3 million resulting from a significant net ridership gain. These figures imply a positive revenue-to-cost ratio and positive operating cost recovery ratio of 7.51 and 16.46, respectively. Economic Case: The new station could attract new riders to the GO network, as well as produce a net transportation mode shift away from personal automobiles. Despite the time to stop at a new station, there would be an overall travel time savings. The results suggest transportation user and environmental benefits amounting to a net gain of $500.0 million over the station’s 60-year evaluation period, with a positive benefit-cost ratio of 12.7. Deliverability and Operations Case: The station could be constructed within the existing Bathurst North rail yard, but would eliminate train layover space. This may have significant operational impacts with the introduction of Regional Express Rail (RER) service. The station’s construction complexity would be low, but feasibility would need to be evaluated against system wide service planning. The assessment of Spadina’s potential concludes that the station performs well in the Financial and Economic Cases, and moderately in the Strategic and Deliverability & Operations Cases. Spadina’s policy alignment and contribution to GO ridership growth are complemented by its ease of construction, a positive net present value, and broader societal benefits. A table summarizing key metrics from each of the four cases follows. A legend is contained in Appendix D. RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina– draft Table ES-1: Results of Initial Business Case Analysis for Spadina Criterion Summary Policy Alignment Supportive Development Potential and Intensification Supportive Real Estate Market Demand Supportive Natural Environment Neutral Operational System Neutral Connectivity and Ridership Drivers Supportive Strategic Case Station Access Neutral Social Inclusivity and Accessibility Neutral Incremental GO Ridership (Millions of Trips) 214.2 Fare Revenue (A) $346.3 Total Costs (B) $46.1 Capital Costs $25.1 Operating Costs (C) $21.0 Net Present Value (A-B) $300.2 Financial Case Revenue to Cost Ratio (A/B) 7.51 Operating Cost Recovery Ratio (A/C) 16.46 Travel Time Savings (Millions of Person-Hours) 2.7 Auto Distances Saved (Millions of VKTs) 1,755 Benefits $542.5 Costs $42.6 Net Present Value $500.0 Benefit-Cost Ratio 12.7 Transportation User Impacts $537.7 Travel Time Savings $18.2 Economic Case Vehicle Operating Cost Savings $361.0 Decongestion on Road Network $120.1 Safety Impacts $38.4 Environmental Impacts $4.8 Constructability Supportive Stakeholder Impacts Neutral Room for Growth Neutral Approvals/Permits Required Supportive Operating Impacts Neutral Deliverability & Operations Case Other Key Risks and Impacts Not Supportive (Impacts over a 60-year period. Millions of 2015 $ Present Value, unless otherwise noted) RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Spadina– draft Table of Contents Executive Summary page 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Background .......................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Report Scope and Purpose ................................................................................................................. 1 1.3 Site Options and Scenarios Analyzed ................................................................................................. 2 2. Cluster Screening ........................................................................................................................ 5 2.1 Methodology ........................................................................................................................................ 5 3. Station Context and Concept Plan .............................................................................................. 6 3.1 Station Location ................................................................................................................................... 6 3.2 Current Land Uses in Area .................................................................................................................. 6 3.3 Surrounding Transportation Infrastructure........................................................................................... 7 3.4 Concept Plan Rationale ....................................................................................................................... 7 4. Strategic Case ............................................................................................................................ 11 4.1 Strategic Case Summary ................................................................................................................... 11 4.2 Approach ........................................................................................................................................... 11 4.3 Rationale for a New Station ............................................................................................................... 12 4.3.1 Problem Statement ............................................................................................................... 12 4.3.2 Drivers for Change ................................................................................................................ 12 4.3.3 Station Objectives ................................................................................................................. 13 4.3.4 Constraints and Interdependencies ...................................................................................... 13 4.3.5 Stakeholders ......................................................................................................................... 15 4.4 Policy, Land Use and Development .................................................................................................. 15 4.4.1 Policy Alignment ................................................................................................................... 15 4.4.2 Development Potential and Intensification ........................................................................... 16 4.4.3 Real Estate Market Demand ................................................................................................ 20 4.4.4 Natural Environment ............................................................................................................. 21 4.5 Network, Connectivity,
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