Understanding the Relationship Between Capacity Utilisation and Performance and the Implications for the Pricing of Congested Rail Networks John Alexander Haith Submitted in accordance with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy The University of Leeds Institute for Transport Studies February, 2015 - ii - The candidate confirms that the work submitted is his own, except where work which has formed part of jointly-authored publications has been included. The contribution of the candidate and the other authors to this work has been explicitly indicated below. The candidate confirms that appropriate credit has been given within the thesis where reference has been made to the work of others. Elements of the work contained in this thesis have previously appeared in the published paper:- Haith, J., Johnson, D. and Nash, C. 2014.The Case for Space: the Measurement of Capacity Utilisation, its Relationship with Reactionary Delay and the Calculation of the Capacity Charge for the British Rail Network. Transportation Planning and Technology 37 (1) February 2014 Special Issue: Universities’ Transport Study Group UK Annual Conference 2013. Where there is specific use of the contents of the above paper in this thesis reference is made to it in the appropriate part of the text. However, general use of the work contained in the paper is particularly made in Chapter 5 (Methodology), Chapter 6 (The Data Set) and Chapter 7 (Results). It should also be noted that all research and analysis contained in this thesis (and the paper) was conducted by the candidate. Secondly, substantial additional analysis was conducted between the finalisation of the paper and the writing of this thesis meaning that the results of the research have expanded significantly. This copy has been supplied on the understanding that it is copyright material and that no quotation from the thesis may be published without proper acknowledgement. The right of John Alexander Haith to be identified as Author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. © 2015 The University of Leeds and John Alexander Haith - iii - Acknowledgements A large number of people have provided practical help or encouragement in the research behind this thesis and its writing. In order to properly thank those who have given assistance it is necessary to explain how I came to be writing a thesis on rail capacity utilisation in the first place. After graduating from The University of Leeds in 1990 with a B.A.(Hons) in Geography I went to work for a transport consultancy as a planner working on road schemes. They encouraged me to undertake a part time M.Sc (Eng) in Transport Planning and Engineering at the Institute for Transport Studies at Leeds to widen my understanding. It was here that I encountered two people that were instrumental in my subsequently undertaking a Ph.D in a rail related matter at Leeds. Firstly, I got to know a fellow student called Doug Desmond who was working for the company called Railtrack who would go onto become the Infrastructure Owner once Britain’s railways were privatised. Doug would become my first manager when I went to work for Railtrack. At the same time I attended a number of stimulating lectures on rail issues by Professor Chris Nash. I have much to thank Doug for. Most importantly of all he was instrumental in my meeting my wife-to-be who at the time held a similar job in Glasgow to mine in York. In the end I worked for Railtrack (and its subsequent reincarnation as Network Rail) for 17 years. Much of this time was in the train planning field where I held a number of senior managerial positions including a spell as a Timetable Manager for a large part of the British rail network. During my time in train planning I received excellent advice and encouragement on the intricacies of creating a timetable from numerous people. The understanding I gained during this time has been instrumental in my developing and using the various capacity utilisation measures described in this thesis. It has also helped me understand and interpret the performance data. Finally it has also helped my comprehension of what is likely to be possible and what is not possible in terms of the recommendations made in this thesis. I also owe a debt of gratitude to Richard O’Brien who as Operational Planning Manager at Network Rail assisted a move into Strategic Access Planning and introduced me to the concept of The Theory of Constraints. It was under his mentorship that I pursued the idea towards the end of my time - iv - at Network Rail that this concept (that the flow through a system is dictated by the flow though its principle constraint) would be a useful way to investigate rail capacity utilisation. It was his support that gave me the confidence to apply for a Ph.D at Leeds in this field. In deciding to pursue this wish I first approached Professor Nash and it is thanks to his help and that of Daniel Johnson that I was accepted. Both Chris and Dan have proved excellent supervisors. They have provided considerable encouragement but also questioned my analysis and writing where necessary. They have helped tease out my thinking into fully formed concepts. They have both leant me their considerable weight of experience. It is true to say that this thesis would not exist without their assistance. There are also obviously a large number of other people associated with the Institute for Transport Studies who have provided advice, encouragement and constructive criticism along the way. During my studies I have also been lucky enough to present a paper at two external conferences. The experience gained in doing so together with the constructive criticism received has helped enormously. I would also like to thank Network Rail for their provision of the data required to carry out the analysis described in this thesis. I would particularly like to thank Nigel Salmon, my last manager at the company, who kindly provided me with the performance data set after spending some considerable time discussing with me my requirements. Network Rail is also to be thanked for giving me the opportunity to both contribute to the consultation process for the 2013 Recalibration of the Capacity Charge and also to take part in a workshop for the rail industry on developing measures for understanding and optimising capacity utilisation. Another acknowledgement that I need to make is to my GP and other health professionals in the area. Prior to starting my Ph.D I was diagnosed with a serious illness. Although, at times it has been difficult I have received excellent support from the National Health Service. The University has also been fantastic with regard to the time off I have had to take. I also wish to acknowledge the support and encouragement of my close friends, the members of my local church and my wider family. Having my parents live ‘just round the corner’ has led to a weekly lunch at their house during my studies which has become a much anticipated and needed break particularly during the writing up phase. - v - Finally, I wish to acknowledge the love, support and encouragement of my wonderful wife and two amazing daughters. It is to these three people I dedicate this thesis. John Haith February 2015, Leeds. - vi - Abstract There is a growing demand for rail travel in this country which is difficult to satisfy. The result is increased congestion on Britain’s railways. One feature of rail infrastructure congestion is a direct link between capacity utilisation and reactionary delay. The latter is the secondary delay that an already late train causes to a following train. This thesis re-examines the relationship between capacity utilisation and performance (as expressed by the level of reactionary delay). It compares the effectiveness of the standard measure of capacity utilisation in Britain (the Capacity Utilisation Index or CUI) with amongst others a measure developed in the Netherlands (the Heterogeneity measure or HET) which uses a radically different approach. The analysis presented in this thesis finds that HET which measures how capacity is used through the spacing of trains, is a more effective predictor of the levels of reactionary delay than CUI which simply measures how much capacity is used. In both cases though, an exponential relationship between capacity utilisation and reactionary delay is preferred, reinforcing the work of previous researchers. In 2002 a congestion charge, called The Capacity Charge, was introduced in Britain. The idea was to encourage the Infrastructure Owner (now known as Network Rail) to accommodate more traffic whilst working with train operators to optimise capacity utilisation on the network. The Capacity Charge is based on the relationship between CUI and reactionary delay. However, this thesis shows that HET based tariffs would charge more for congestion than CUI based tariffs. In addition there is a greater differential between peak and off-peak charges. One conclusion is that CUI undercharges for congestion due to its failure to account for the impact of train ‘bunching’. - vii - Table of Contents Acknowledgements .................................................................................... iii Abstract ...................................................................................................... vii Table of Contents .................................................................................... viiii List of Tables ...........................................................................................