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A University of Sussex PhD thesis Available online via Sussex Research Online: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/ This thesis is protected by copyright which belongs to the author. This thesis cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the Author The content must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the Author When referring to this work, full bibliographic details including the author, title, awarding institution and date of the thesis must be given Please visit Sussex Research Online for more information and further details When the Disaster Strikes: (Im)mobility Decision-Making in the Context of Environmental Shocks and Climate Change Impacts Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson PhD in International Development University of Sussex Institute of Development Studies March 2018 i Statement I hereby declare that this doctoral manuscript has not been and will not be, submitted in whole or in part to another University for the award of any other degree. Signature: ii Acknowledgements I would first and foremost like to thank my doctoral mentors Terry Cannon and in particular Dominic Kniveton for their generous intellectual support and investment of time throughout my doctoral research. I owe the deepest gratitude to the people in Bangladesh involved in this research. They were the ones who always welcomed me with open arms into their homes and proved an extreme patience and willingness to get the research right. In Dhaka, I want to thank my colleagues at ICCCAD, including Sarder Shafiqul Alam and Saleemul Huq for their assistance and advice. Last but definitely not least, I want to thank my constant field companion Istiakh Ahmed for his endless support and positive spirit. I also want to thank Munich Re-Foundation, and especially Thomas Loster and Christian Barthelt, not primarily for funding the research, but for their never ending encouragement and belief in its potential. I am also grateful to my UNU-EHS colleagues, and in particular Jakob Rhyner, David Wrathall and Kees van der Geest, for their thoughtful support. In the UK, I thank my extended colleagues here at University of Sussex’s Department of Geography, including Carl Griffin, Mick Frogley, Olivia Taylor and David Ockwell. I also would like to thank my external doctoral examiner Andrew Baldwin from Durham University, Jonathan Granger Miles, as well as the three anonymous reviewers and the editors at Ambio (A Journal of the Human Environment), for their constructive comments leading up to improving the manuscript prior to its publication. I want to thank my family for their loving support, foremost my mum Rakel, my sister Adela, and my son Nima, and not leaving out those who started out as colleagues but who throughout my time here have turned into my extended and much beloved family, including Dominic Kniveton, Gino Fox, and Christopher David Smith. iii Contents STATEMENT page i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS page ii CONTENTS page iii LIST OF APPENDICES page vii LIST OF FIGURES page viii LIST OF TABLES page xi ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS page xiii SUMMARY page xv CHAPTER 1 ................................................................................................................................ 1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 RESEARCH AIM, MANUSCRIPT OUTLINE AND RESEARCH QUESTIONS .......................................... 3 CHAPTER 2 ................................................................................................................................ 7 CONCEPTUAL INTRODUCTION AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ..................... 7 2.1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 7 2.2 THE EVOLUTION OF TRAPPED POPULATIONS.............................................................................. 8 2.3 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ..................................................................................................... 14 2.4 RESEARCH CONTEXT AND AREA ............................................................................................... 26 2.4 SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................ 32 CHAPTER 3 .............................................................................................................................. 33 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND MATERIAL ............................................................ 33 iv 3.1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................ 33 3.2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY: SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE AND Q ................................................. 34 3.2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY: QUALITATIVE STORYTELLING SESSIONS ...................................... 47 3.3 ETHICAL REFLEXION AND POSITIONALITY................................................................................ 52 3.4 SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................ 58 CHAPTER 4 .............................................................................................................................. 60 THE CONCEPTUAL BIRTH AND TROUBLED TEENAGE YEARS OF TRAPPED POPULATIONS: A DISCURSIVE REVIEW OF THE TEXTUAL USE OF ‘TRAPPED’ IN ENVIRONMENTAL MIGRATION STUDIES ............................................................... 60 4.1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................ 60 4.2 DISCURSIVE NARRATIVES AND KEY LITERATURE ON CLIMATE CHANGE-INDUCED MIGRATION 62 4.3 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND METHODOLOGY .................................................................... 66 4.4 ANALYSIS: THE FORESIGHT REPORT ........................................................................................ 74 4.4.1 Discursive narrative 1: Climate change, threats, and challenges are on the way ................ 79 4.4.2 Discursive narrative 2: Global well-managed policy planning is the solution for safety ..... 79 4.4.3 Discursive narrative 3: To stay safe economic progress and resource protection ............... 80 4.5 ANALYSIS: SELECTED PUBLICATIONS ...................................................................................... 81 4.5.1 Discourse A: Reproducing the Foresight report ................................................................... 81 4.5.2 Discourse B: Expanding the Foresight report ...................................................................... 86 4.5.3 Discourse C: Opposing the Foresight report ........................................................................ 97 4.6 DISCUSSION ............................................................................................................................. 99 4.7 CONCLUSION ......................................................................................................................... 101 CHAPTER 5 ............................................................................................................................ 103 TRAPPED IN THE PRISON OF THEIR MINDS: UNDERSTANDING THE NOTION OF ‘TRAPPED’ POPULATIONS THROUGH AN URBAN SETTLEMENT IN BANGLADESH....................................................................................................................... 103 5.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................... 103 5.2 MATERIAL, METHODS AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ........................................................ 104 5.2.1 Q-methodology and survey questionnaire ........................................................................... 105 5.2.2 Qualitative storytelling sessions ......................................................................................... 111 v 5.3 RESULTS ................................................................................................................................ 112 5.3.1 Discourse A: I want to return but the riverbank erosion took my land ............................... 116 5.3.2 Discourse B: This is not where I belong, I want to go home ............................................... 117 5.3.3 Discourse C: Lost health and honour for economic gain ................................................... 118 5.3.4 Discourse D: I came here to save money and then I will return home ................................ 120 5.3.5 Discourse E: Urban dreams of betterment.......................................................................... 121 5.4 DISCUSSION ........................................................................................................................... 123 5.4.1 The importance of time, space and place ............................................................................ 123 5.4.2 The importance of gender, social roles and power ............................................................. 127 5.4.3 The importance of health, wellbeing and emotions ............................................................. 131 5.5 CONCLUSION 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