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Analyzing a More Resilient National Positioning, Navigation, and Timing Capability

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Analyzing a More Resilient National Positioning, Navigation, and Timing Capability Analyzing a More Resilient National Positioning, Navigation, and Timing Capability RICHARD MASON, JAMES BONOMO, TIM CONLEY, RYAN CONSAUL, DAVID R. FRELINGER, DAVID A. GALVAN, DAHLIA ANNE GOLDFELD, SCOTT A. GROSSMAN, BRIAN A. JACKSON, MICHAEL KENNEDY, VERNON R. KOYM, JASON MASTBAUM, THAO LIZ NGUYEN, JENNY OBERHOLTZER, ELLEN M. PINT, PAROUSIA ROCKSTROH, MELISSA SHOSTAK, KARLYN D. STANLEY, ANNE STICKELLS, MICHAEL J. D. VERMEER, STEPHEN M. WORMAN HS AC HOMELAND SECURITY OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS CENTER An FFRDC operated by the RAND Corporation under contract with DHS Published in 2021 Preface The 2017 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) mandated a study “to assess and identify the technology-neutral requirements to backup and complement the posi- tioning, navigation, and timing [PNT] capabilities of the Global Positioning System [GPS] for national security and critical infrastructure.” Having accurate PNT is essential for critical infrastructures across the country, and currently GPS is the primary source of PNT information for many applications. However, GPS signals are susceptible to both unintentional and intentional disruption, thus leaving critical infrastructure vulnerable. Because of the essential need for precise positioning or timing in many critical-infrastructure sectors, the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center (HSOAC) was tasked to provide the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) with a study of the costs and benefits of proposed new PNT systems for the various types of critical infrastructure. This research was sponsored by the DHS National Protection and Programs Directorate, Office of Infrastructure Protection, and conducted within the Acquisition and Development Program of the HSOAC federally funded research and development center (FFRDC). About the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center The Homeland Security Act of 2002 (Section 305 of Public Law 107-296, as codified at 6 U.S.C. § 185), authorizes the Secretary of Homeland Security, acting through the Under Secretary for Science and Technology, to establish one or more FFRDCs to pro- vide independent analysis of homeland security issues. The RAND Corporation oper- ates the HSOAC as an FFRDC for the DHS under contract HSHQDC-16-D-00007. The HSOAC FFRDC provides the government with independent and objective analyses and advice in core areas important to the department in support of policy development, decisionmaking, alternative approaches, and new ideas on issues of sig- nificance. The HSOAC FFRDC also works with and supports other federal, state, local, tribal, and public- and private-sector organizations that make up the homeland security enterprise. The HSOAC FFRDC’s research is undertaken by mutual consent v vi Analyzing a More Resilient National Positioning, Navigation, and Timing Capability with DHS and is organized as a set of discrete tasks. This report presents the results of research and analysis conducted under HSHQDC-17-J-00441, Analysis of Position Navigation Timing (PNT) Alternatives. The results presented in this report do not necessarily reflect official DHS opin- ion or policy. For more information on HSOAC, see www.rand.org/hsoac. For more informa- tion on this publication, see www.rand.org/t/RR2970. Contents Preface .................................................................................................. v Figures ................................................................................................. xi Tables .................................................................................................xiii Summary ..............................................................................................xv Acknowledgments ................................................................................. xxv Abbreviations ......................................................................................xxvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ........................................................................................... 1 Objective ................................................................................................ 1 Background ............................................................................................. 2 Approach ................................................................................................ 6 Scoping .................................................................................................. 6 Outline of This Report ................................................................................ 8 CHAPTER TWO Considerations in Evaluating Backups and Complements to PNT/GPS Systems .......11 Prior Efforts That Examined the Value and Vulnerabilities of PNT Systems .................11 Considerations in Evaluating Potential Backups or Complements ..............................12 CHAPTER THREE Identify Threats and Vulnerabilities of GPS and Other PNT Systems ....................19 A Systematic Way to Consider the Risks of a Full Range of Threats .......................... 20 Explicating the Threat Matrix .......................................................................21 A Specific Case: Cyberattacks Against GPS ...................................................... 34 Summary ...............................................................................................35 CHAPTER FOUR Conduct an Economic Analysis of the Damages Resulting from Varied Threats to PNT ............................................................................................37 Approach for Conducting the Economic Analysis ............................................... 38 vii viii Analyzing a More Resilient National Positioning, Navigation, and Timing Capability Estimating Damages Due to a Nationwide Disruption of GNSS .............................. 38 Estimating Damages from Regional GNSS Jamming ............................................41 Consumer Location-Based Services ................................................................ 43 Commercial Road Transport ....................................................................... 48 Emergency Services ...................................................................................49 Agriculture .............................................................................................52 Construction ...........................................................................................55 Surveying ...............................................................................................58 Aviation ................................................................................................ 60 Maritime ...............................................................................................62 Railway ................................................................................................ 64 Telecommunications ..................................................................................65 Electricity Generation and Transmission ...........................................................67 Finance .................................................................................................67 Port Operations .......................................................................................71 Mining .................................................................................................72 Oil and Gas Exploration .............................................................................73 Multisector Regional Jamming Vignette: Los Angeles–Long Beach ...........................73 Some Historical Evidence Against Predictions of Extreme Disruption ........................75 Summary .............................................................................................. 77 CHAPTER FIVE Identify Alternative Sources and Technologies to Increase National PNT Resilience and Robustness ....................................................................79 Identifying the Technology Options for Increasing PNT Robustness and Resilience ....... 84 Considering System Performance Versus User Fidelity Ranges ............................... 105 Summary ............................................................................................. 113 CHAPTER SIX Conduct Cost-Benefit Assessment of Alternative Sources and Technologies to Increase National PNT Resilience and Robustness .................................... 115 Considering the Costs of GPS Disruptions ...................................................... 116 Considering the Relative Costs of PNT Options ............................................... 120 Considering the Potential Benefits from Different PNT Options ............................ 125 Example Cases of Potential Losses Avoided from Threats and Hazards Compared with Costs ....................................................................................... 125 Summary ............................................................................................. 129 CHAPTER SEVEN Summary and Weighing Alternatives and Potential Federal Initiatives ................ 131 Summary ............................................................................................. 131 Impact of Worldview ............................................................................... 132 Contents ix Inverse Problem: Assumptions on Threats ....................................................... 134 Potential Federal Actions ........................................................................... 135 Final Observations .................................................................................
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