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Three Essays on Poverty in South Korea

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Three Essays on Poverty in South Korea Three essays on poverty in South Korea Submitted by Taiwon Ha to the University of Exeter as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Economics in May 2021 This thesis is available for Library use on the understanding that it is copyright material and that no quotation from the thesis may be published without proper acknowledgement. I certify that all material in this thesis which is not my own work has been identified and that no material has previously been submitted and approved for the award of a degree by this or any other University. Signature: ………………………………………………………… Acknowledgements First of all, I would like to express my great gratitude to my supervisors. My first supervisor professor Climent Quintana-Domeque always provided insightful guidance and kind consideration. My second supervisor professor Sonia Oreffice also gave very constructive comments and encouragement. Thanks to their supervision I can complete my thesis under the unprecedent COVID-19 pandemic. It has been a great honour to have their supervision. Not only that, but professor Julian Jamison, professor Surajeet Chakravarty, Dr Julian Neira, Dr Rakesh Banerjee, Dr Namhyun Kim, Cholwoo Kim, and professor Eleanor Jawon Choi gave valuable comments and opinions. In addition, I wish to extend my tremendous appreciation to the Ministry of Economy and Finance in South Korea for giving me this glorious research opportunity and waiting for me to return to the office. I will more contribute to the Korean society as a public official. Also, the University of Exeter Business School provided a great academic environment. Last but not least, I am greatly indebted to my wife Minhye Kim and my son Seunghyeon Ha. I can concentrate on my research with their support, faith, and love. I also thank to my parents, my parents-in-law, and other family members. Their dedication and encouragement have been solid motivation for my academic journey. 2 Abstract This thesis explores poverty in South Korea. Elderly poverty has been regarded as one of the most urgent issues in Korea, so the first chapter analyses the trends and determinants of elderly poverty, while the second chapter decomposes the anti-poverty efficacy and efficiency of the Korean public transfer programmes. The third chapter identifies the effect of COVID-19 on poverty and household livelihood which is a contemporary and urgent issue. In addition, this thesis adopts relatively new research designs in each chapter to identify more relevant findings and implications. Chapter 1. The trends and determinants of elderly poverty in South Korea: using both relative and absolute poverty thresholds Background: Although social expenditure for the elderly has sharply increased since the mid-2000s, the relative poverty rate of people aged 65 over in Korea was 43.8% in 2017. This rate has remained at the highest level of the OECD member countries. Data: This chapter analyses the Korean Labour and Income Panel Study (KLIPS) from 2003 to 2017. The KLIPS allows to capture longitudinal changes in elderly poverty because it has the longest panel data on labour activities and household income in Korea. Methodology: (i) Trends of elderly poverty: This chapter adopts four poverty lines to identify the multi-dimensions of elderly poverty: one relative poverty line (a poverty index) and three absolute poverty lines (deep poverty indices). (ii) Determinants of elderly poverty: It conducts panel logistic regression with the above poverty lines as the 3 criteria of binary dependent variables. In addition, it adopts the Lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) to select more relevant independent variables. Findings: (i) Trends: The absolute poverty rate 1 dropped from 35.9% in 2003 to 9.8% in 2017, however the relative poverty rate reduced slightly from 48.5% to 43.9%. (ii) Determinants: Firstly, householder employment, household size, the number of pensioners, family support, and net assets are significant on relative and absolute poverty. Secondly, some of the absolute poverty elderly were able to overcome their poverty in recent years thanks to the Basic Old-Age Pension implementation in 2008. Lastly, the healthy elderly tend to participate in the labour market more actively and have more earned income, so they can overcome relative poverty. Implications: (i) Public transfer programmes have had positive effects on absolute elderly poverty, but they are still insufficient on relative poverty. Therefore, work activities and family support are still important income sources for the elderly. (ii) To reduce relative elderly poverty effectively, it is necessary to improve not only public transfer programmes, but also work incentive schemes for the healthy elderly. Chapter 2. The efficacy and efficiency of public transfer programmes on elderly poverty in South Korea Background: This chapter decomposes and compares the anti-poverty efficacy and efficiency of major public transfer programmes in Korea. It can find implications for policy makers who usually need to design better policy measures with finite resources. Data: It uses the Korea Welfare Panel Study (KOWEPS) from 2006 to 2018 because the KOWEPS has a variety of information on the Korean public transfer programmes. 4 Methodology: (i) Efficacy: This chapter measures the efficacy through the Shapley decomposition because the traditional decomposition approach has additivity and path dependence problems. (ii) Efficiency: It establishes four efficiency criteria focusing on coverage and benefit. (iii) It employs one relative poverty threshold and one absolute poverty threshold. (iv) It analyses the following four representative programmes in the Korean welfare system: public pension; the Basic Pension; the National Basic Livelihood Security (NBLS); and the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC). Findings: (i) Efficacy: Public pension has the largest anti-poverty efficacy of the four programmes. The Basic Pension ranks second and its efficacy rose in 2008 and 2014 when it was expanded. However, the NBLS and the EITC have small efficacy. (ii) Efficiency: Public pension covered only 40% of the elderly in 2018 because it was introduced much later than in other countries. Whereas the Basic Pension has had too generous coverage since 2008, so more than half of recipients were not in absolute poverty in 2018. The NBLS is a main public assistance programme, but it supports only a quarter of the absolute poverty elderly. The EITC is more efficient for relative poverty. Implications: (i) By the maturing of public pension, its coverage will reach nearly 90% of the elderly by 2060, so it needs to be a centrepiece of the benefits system for the elderly. (ii) The Basic Pension has to be restructured to assist the deep poor elderly. (iii) The NBLS should provide more support to the absolute poverty elderly. (iv) The EITC needs to increase benefit to incentivise work activities of the elderly. Chapter 3. The effects of COVID-19 and response measures on poverty, income and consumption in South Korea 5 Background: Among several response measures, the Emergency Disaster Relief Funds triggered important debates because this is the first-ever universal benefit in Korea. Data: This chapter analyses the Korea Household Income and Expenditure Survey (KHIES). The KHIES allows to separate (i) the effect of the pandemic as changes in non-social benefits income (disposable income – the social benefits) and (ii) the effects of response measures as changes in the social benefits (including the above relief). Methodology: (i) Poverty: This chapter sets both a relative and an absolute poverty thresholds. (ii) Income and consumption expenditure: It adopts changes-in-changes (CC) instead of difference-in-differences (DD) because the parallel trends assumption of DD cannot be investigated due to the recent KHIES redesign. It conducts CC at five income and expenditure percentiles (5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 95%) and on the vulnerable (female, young, and elderly households) to identify disproportionate effects. Findings: (i) Poverty: The pandemic delivered immediate impacts, so the poverty rate increased in the first quarter 2020. However, the poverty rate decreased in the second quarter due to the relief. (ii) Income: COVID-19 has had more critical effects on the poor and the vulnerable; while the relief was a universal benefit, and its benefit was proportionate to household size not income. Consequently, income increase effects were insignificant on high-income percentiles. In addition, the poor and the vulnerable faced an income reduction in the third quarter as the relief was a one-off payment. (iii) Consumption: Household consumption expenditure recovered in the second quarter. Implications: (i) The government measures need to be concentrated on the poor and the vulnerable in response to the disproportionate effects. (ii) The measures are required to be immediate and sustainable, so improving the current system can be a feasible option. 6 List of Contents Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................ 2 Abstract ............................................................................................................................... 3 List of Contents .................................................................................................................. 7 List of Tables ...................................................................................................................... 11 List of Figures ....................................................................................................................
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