Scott A. Yuknis High impact weather forecasts, climate assessment and prediction. 14 Boatwright’s Loop Plymouth, MA 02360 Phone/Fax 508.927.4610 Cell: 508.813.3499 [email protected]

Climate Impact Company Early AG Wire

Issued MON-FRI 0900 GMT

Monday May 14, 2018

Week 2-4 Outlooks: U.S., Europe and Western Russia (South America/China/Australia later this morning).

United States: Southeast Rains, showery Central and western heat.

Last week: Nationally, all states were warmer than normal. Hot weather was observed across the southwest Great Plains drought zone. The southern half of the U.S. was dry while heavy rains fell just north of the Corn Belt.

Fig. 1-2: U.S. temperature anomalies/precipitation amount for May 6-12.

Week 2 (May 20-26): Fetch of tropical moisture from the western Caribbean Sea into the Southeast U.S. continues (Fig. 2). Frontal boundaries roped across the Midwest and into the East entrain some of this moisture. Borderline wet weather is likely in the Corn Belt. Fetch of subtropical moisture into the southwest Plains is also likely. A warm and humid pattern in the Great Plains but most excessive warmth is in the West (Fig. 3).

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Fig. 3-4: GFS ensemble temperature anomaly/precipitation percent of normal forecast for next week across U.S.

Week 3 (May 27-June 2): MJO phase_1 may re-intensify. The mid-to-late May pattern extends into June: Wet in the Southeast (Fig. 5). The dryness in the Southeast could be erased by this time. The Great Plains is a little drier and possibly warmer than indicated by the CFS V2. Strongest U.S. warmth is in the Northwest U.S. (Fig. 6).

Fig. 5-6: CFS V2 precipitation amount and temperature anomaly forecasts for week 3 ahead.

Week 4 (June 3-9): A low confidence forecast. ECMWF indicates MJO returns to the Indian Ocean zooming toward Maritime continent. If so, a cooler pattern emerges West U.S. while the Central U.S. is warm-to-hot and drier. Some of the Central heat was extend to the Eastern States. So…potential pattern change is implied.

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Europe: Warm pattern sustained.

Last week: Another warm week across Europe (Fig. 7) while wet weather affected parts of southern and southeastern Europe with mostly dry conditions for wheat belt areas (Fig. 8).

Fig. 7-8: Europe temperature anomalies/precipitation amount for May 6-12.

Week 2 (May 20-26): Storm track across the northern North Atlantic cool SSTA pool continues. Persistence rules across Europe: Anomalous warmth (Fig. 9) and wet weather in Southeast Europe reaching wheat areas (Fig. 10).

Fig. 9-10: GFS ensemble temperature anomaly/precipitation percent of normal forecast for next week in Europe.

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Week 3 (May 27-June 2): The cool pool of SSTA south of Greenland maintains an upper trough across the northern North Atlantic/Greenland with an upstream ridge parked over Europe sustaining the warmer than normal climate (Fig. 11). Energy ejected east-southeast from the North Atlantic trough continues to find a home south of Europe. Indicated is wet weather for Southern Europe to the south of wheat areas and anomalous dry and warm climate persisting to the north.

Fig. 11: CFS V2 prevailing upper air pattern across Europe week 3 ahead.

Week 4 (June 3-9): The North Atlantic SSTA driven climate is too strong to change the upper air features in early June (Fig. 12).

Fig. 12: CFS V2 prevailing upper air pattern across Europe week 4 ahead.

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Ukraine/Southwest Russia/Black Sea: Showery southern areas, dry north.

Last week: Warmer than normal climate was observed last week (Fig. 13) with minimal rain shower activity (Fig. 14).

Fig. 13-14: Western Russia temperature anomalies/precipitation amount for May 6-12.

Week 2 (May 20-26): Warm persistence is likely to continue next week (Fig. 15). The Southern Europe trough is far enough north to bring rain showers to Western Ukraine while into Southwest Russia is mostly dry (Fig. 16).

Fig. 15-16: GFS ensemble temperature anomaly/precipitation percent of normal forecast for next week across Western Russia.

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Week 3 (May 27-June 2): Persistence rules in Europe AND Western Russia in the extended-range. The tendency for energy to eject east and southeast from the North Atlantic mean trough to far southern Europe keeps southern Europe to the southern Black Sea region showery while areas to the north are dry (Fig. 17).

Fig. 17: CFS V2 precipitation anomaly forecast for the Middle East week 3 ahead.

Week 4 (June 3-9): A dry bias is likely except continued showery across the southern Black Sea region into early June (Fig. 18).

Fig. 18: CFS V2 precipitation anomaly forecast for the Middle East week 4 ahead.

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