National Strategy on Climate Change and Low Carbon Development for Rwanda Baseline Report
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
National Strategy on Climate Change and Low Carbon Development for Rwanda Baseline Report Editor Professor Sir David King FRS Authors Bernis Byamukama [email protected] Economics, Trade and Industry Dr Christian Carey [email protected] Transport Cities and the Built Environment Megan Cole [email protected] Energy Mining Jillian Dyszynski [email protected] Climate Policy Dr Mathew Warnest [email protected] Agriculture Land Water Expert Advisors Dr Mick Blowfield (Industry and Commerce) Dr Nick Eyre (Energy) Dr David Frame (Climate Centre) Dr Rajat Gupta (Built Environment) Dr Claire Heffernan (Agriculture) Dr Cameron Hepburn (Economics and policy) Dr Oliver Inderwildi (Transport) Dr Mark New (Water) Dr Geoff Pearce (Water) Professor John Pickett (Agriculture) Ranjita Rajan (Management and enterprise) Dr Richard Washington (Climate Centre) “The National Strategy on Climate Change and Low Carbon Development for Rwanda, including the production of this report, is funded by the Climate & Development Knowledge Network (CDKN) www.cdkn.org. Views expressed in this document are those of the Smith School of Enterprise and Environment and the Government of Rwanda and may not be shared by CDKN or partner organisations.” University of Oxford Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment Hayes House 75 George Street Oxford OX1 2BQ United Kingdom DOI 10.4210/SSEE.PBS.2011.0002 ISSN (Print) 2042-4035 ISSN (Online) 2042-4043 i BaselineReport “The environment is our life-blood; indeed the real surprise is not that ministries of finance are now talking to ministries of environment – but that it has actually taken this long. Even when we look beyond agriculture, tourism, mineral wealth and fisheries, our economies depend critically on good environmental stewardship.” His Excellency Paul Kagame, President of Rwanda 2009 Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment ii iii BaselineReport THE SMITH SCHOOL VIEW “Our climate is changing and we are causing it to change. While developed countries struggle to reach agreement, many leaders in the developing world are striding forward, meeting challenging goals in order to reduce the impact on their nations, while continuing development. Rwanda is one such country. Under the leadership of His Excellency Paul Kagame, Rwanda has made remarkable progress in economic development. With the assistance of the Climate & Development Knowledge Network and the Department for International Development, through the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, significant steps will be made towards sustainable and robust development strategies. This can only be possible through the in-depth and continuing support of the Government of Rwanda, whose efforts will ensure this project succeeds in its aims. This baseline report is the first stage in a unique opportunity to create a low-carbon, climate-resilient development plan, taking Rwanda into a sustainable, and above all a prosperous, mid- century as a middle income economy.” Professor Sir David King FRS Oxford 2011 Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment iv v BaselineReport VIEW FROM RWANDA “The elaboration of a Climate Change and Low Carbon Development Strategy marks a significant turning point in the development paradigm Rwanda is contemplating. Sustainable development will indeed be effective only if articulated by climate resilient and low carbon economic growth. The extensive appraisal reflected in this baseline report provides appropriate grounds to effect a new planning framework that will proactively take into account recurrent shocks relevant to the impacts of global climate change. ” Honourable Minister Stanislas Kamanzi Kigali 2011 Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment vi vii BaselineReport TABLE OF CONTENTS The Smith School View iv View from Rwanda vi Table of Contents viii Executive Summary x 1. Introduction 1 2. Climate Policy 9 3. Economy, Trade and Industry 19 4. Energy 25 5. Mining 35 6. Transport 41 7. Cities and the Built Environment 49 8. Agriculture 55 9. Land 63 10.Water 71 11.Forestry 79 12.Conclusion 85 Acknowledgements 87 References 89 Acronyms and Abbreviations 95 Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment viii “The danger posed by war to all of humanity - and to our planet - is at least matched by the climate crisis and global warming. I believe that the world has reached a critical stage in its efforts to exercise responsible environmental stewardship.” Ban Ki-moon UN Secretary General ix BaselineReport EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This Baseline Report is the first step in the Agriculture, the source of employment for process of developing a National Strategy 80% of the population, is most at risk. on Climate Change and Low Carbon Rwanda is currently dependent on Development for Rwanda. It provides a hydropower for 50% of its electricity, snapshot of the country today and the making it vulnerable to changes in rainfall. planned initiatives that will take it forward, Regional planning of hydropower plants placing it within the context of climate has based maximum capacity on current change. Though many opportunities are river flows, which are likely to change. As highlighted, the aim of the report is to temperatures rise, diseases will spread provide the foundation for the next step posing health risks to the predominantly where detailed analysis will take place and poor population. Planning for the future in recommendations will be made. Rwanda needs to take all these changes Rwanda is a small, hilly, landlocked into account to become climate-resilient. country in East Africa with the highest The root cause of global warming, the population density in Africa. It has strong burning of fossil fuels, needs to be leadership and good governance, which addressed on a global scale. Rwanda, as have enabled it to develop rapidly: it has a Least Developed Country (LDC), is not experienced an average GDP growth rate required to cut its greenhouse gas (GHG) of 8.5% in the past five years. Rwanda’s emissions and currently is a net carbon collective vision for development is sink thanks to forest sequestration. embodied in Vision 2020, which seeks to However, GHG emissions are expected to transform the country from a subsistence rise as the country’s economy grows. agriculture economy to a knowledge- Rwanda is currently dependent on oil based middle income economy by 2020. imports for transport and 45% of electricity Export revenues are dominated by generation. Moving to a low carbon minerals, tea and coffee while services and economy would reduce vulnerability to oil agriculture contribute 81% of GDP. price spikes and improve energy security. Tourism has recently become the largest As an LDC, Rwanda has priority access to foreign exchange earner. As the population international climate finance: developing a grows and urbanisation and National Strategy on Climate Change and industrialisation increase, more and more Low Carbon Development will facilitate pressure is placed on the natural that process. resources in Rwanda, notably land, water This Baseline Report addresses various and forests. Limited infrastructure, sectors of the economy individually for the including the transport network, electricity specific purpose of gaining deeper insight. grid and water pipelines, hinders trade and But sectoral integration is crucial in the the provision of basic amenities. development of a national strategy, and Many initiatives are under way in Rwanda this will be a key component of the next to address these challenges but there is a stage. The project recognises the new challenge that needs to be addressed challenges of low capacity and funding. It – that of climate change due to global aims to build local capacity, especially in warming. Rwanda is highly vulnerable to the areas of climate finance and climate the impacts of climate change although data collection and analysis, and will lack of sufficient data means that regional contribute to the establishment of a climate change projections are uncertain. Climate Centre. Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment x “We must use time wisely and forever realise that the time is always ripe to do right.” Nelson Mandela xi BaselineReport 1. INTRODUCTION Climate change poses the greatest global - Contribute to the implementation of a challenge of our day. It requires us to Climate Centre in Rwanda to improve reduce our dependence on fossil fuels and climate data and models for the region to learn to adapt to new climate-related Many developing countries have produced risks. For developing countries, poverty climate change strategies or action plans, alleviation and human development have including Bangladesh, Kenya and Zambia. become an even greater challenge. Oil Low carbon development studies are less importers like Rwanda will be exposed to common, however, with early movers price shocks, threatening energy security being Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, and economic growth. Decoupling a Mexico, Poland, South Africa, Guyana, developing economy from fossil fuels – low Costa Rica and South Korea. The studies carbon development – and climate- identify greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation proofing key economic sectors is a priority potential, assess the costs and benefits of for stable growth. The Government of lower carbon growth pathways, examine Rwanda has recognised this and is financing sources and mechanisms to committed to addressing climate change address the additional costs, characterise with the same determination that it has appropriate policy support, and identify shown towards socio-economic projects and programmes that contribute development. Rwanda’s development to growth and development goals while vision is embodied in Vision 2020 which curbing GHG emissions[2]. Rwanda has aims to transform the country from a Least the opportunity to join this group of early Developed Country (LDC) to a middle- movers on low carbon development but income economy, with an income of 900 would be the first LDC to do so. This will USD per capita by 2020[1] . With real GDP position the country well to be eligible for growth rates of 8.5% in the past five years, international climate finance for mitigation Rwanda is on track to meet the Vision and adaptation.