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A Green Revolution for Rwanda? the Political Economy of Poverty and Agrarian Change

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A Green Revolution for Rwanda? the Political Economy of Poverty and Agrarian Change DISCUSSION PAPER / 2008.06 A Green Revolution for Rwanda? The Political Economy of Poverty and Agrarian Change An Ansoms Comments on this Discussion Paper are invited. Please contact the author at <[email protected]> Instituut voor Ontwikkelingsbeleid en -Beheer Institute of Development Policy and Management Institut de Politique et de Gestion du Développement Instituto de Política y Gestión del Desarrollo Postal address: Visiting address: Prinsstraat 13 Lange Sint-Annastraat 7 B-2000 Antwerpen B-2000 Antwerpen Belgium Belgium Tel: +32 (0)3 275 57 70 Fax: +32 (0)3 275 57 71 e-mail: [email protected] http://www.ua.ac.be/dev DISCUSSION PAPER / 2008.06 A Green Revolution for Rwanda? The Political Economy of Poverty and Agrarian Change An Ansoms* June 2008 * An Ansoms is researcher at the Institute of Development Policy and Management, University of Antwerp. Acknowledgements: The author owes many thanks to the recommendations provided by Catharine Newbury (Five College Professor of Government and African Studies, Smith College) and Filip Reyntjens (Institute of Development Policy and Management - University of Antwerp). CONTENTS Abstract 7 Résumé 7 Introduction: Towards a “Green Revolution” for Sub-Saharan Africa? 9 1. The political economy of Rwanda: the distribution of power and wealth 10 2 The visions and ambitions of the ‘new’ Rwandan élite: a discourse analysis 17 2.1 Main profile of the post-1994 political élite 18 2.2 The perceived potential of the Rwandan peasant class 19 2.3 The developmental potential of the Rwandan economy: what place for small-scale peasants and unskilled labour force? 21 2.4 ‘Re-engineering’ rural society: law enforcement and stringent targets 26 3. Conclusion: political economy dynamics and the chances for a green revolution 33 Bibliography 35 Annex 38 “Remove the secondary causes that have produced the great convulsions of the world and you will almost always find the principle of inequality at the bottom. Either the poor have attempted to plunder the rich, or the rich to enslave the poor. If, then, a state or society can ever be founded in which every man shall have some- thing to keep and little to take from others, much will have been done for the peace in the world.” Alexis de Tocqueville (1805-1859) ABSTRacT The World Development Report 2008 highlights the need for a green revolution in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper reflects upon the visions and ambitions of Rwandan policy makers to make this happen. It first analyses the political economy of Rwanda in a historical per- spective. It outlines how political evolutions and events – with special reference to 1994 – have brought to power a political élite whose identity (both ethnic and spatial) differs profoundly from that of the overall majority. The main part of the paper links the identity of the current political élite to its vision and ambitions to create and foster a “green revolution” in Rwanda. Based upon interviews conducted by the author in mid-2007, the paper illustrates the strong ambitions of national policy makers to re-engineer the traditional agricultural sector into a modernized ve- hicle for economic growth, with little place left for traditional smallholder agriculture. The pa- per points to the flaws and shortcomings in this strategy. In the final part, it draws conclusions from the Rwandan case to feed the wider debate on how political economy dynamics shape the chances for a successful green revolution in Sub-Saharan Africa. Key words: political economy, agrarian policy, green revolution, Rwanda, Sub-Sa- haran Africa, small scale peasants, elite-peasant relationship. RÉSUMÉ Une révolution verte pour le Rwanda? L’économie politique de la pauvreté et le changement agraire. Le rapport de 2008 sur le développement mondial souligne la nécessité d’une ré- volution verte en Afrique subsaharienne. Cet article réfléchit aux visions et aux ambitions des politiciens rwandais pour réaliser cet objectif. Il commence par analyser l’économie politique au Rwanda d’un point de vue historique. Il résume comment les transformations et les évé- nements politiques – avec une référence spéciale pour 1994 – ont amené au pouvoir une élite politique dont l’identité (tant ethnique que géographique) diffère profondément de celle de la majorité de la population. La partie principale de l’article lie l’identité de l’élite politique actuelle à ses visions et ambitions de créer et de favoriser une révolution verte au Rwanda. Se basant sur des interviews menées par l’auteur au milieu de l’année 2007, cet article illustre les grandes ambitions des politiciens du pays à reconstruire le secteur agricole traditionnel en un instrument modernisé de croissance économique qui laisse peu de place à l’agriculture traditionnelle des petites exploitations. L’article dénonce les défauts et les lacunes de cette stratégie. Finalement, il tire des conclusions du cas rwandais pour alimenter un débat plus large sur la manière dont une économie politique dynamique crée des possibilités pour une révolution verte couronnée de succès en Afrique subsaharienne. A Green Revolution for Rwanda? IOB DISCUSSION PAPER 2008-06 • INTRODUCTION: TOWARDS A “GREEN REVOLUTION” FOR SUB-SAHARAN AFRica? In various economic theories, the structural transformation of the economy from the primary towards the secondary and tertiary sectors was seen as the sole path towards sus- tainable economic growth and development (e.g. Kuznets, 1973). Over the last few decades, however, the agricultural sector has reappeared on the agenda of the development community. From 1965 onwards, new trends (or revolutions) in agriculture in rural Asia, and to a lesser extent Latin America (collectively termed, by some, as the “Green Revolution”) began to emerge. It entailed the introduction of high-yield varieties of rice and wheat, combined with other ‘modern’ technologies (e.g. irrigation, mechanisation, etc.), and had profound economic, social and political ramifications. Views differ, however, on the overall desirability of the revo- lution’s accomplishments. Though many applaud its achievements in terms of output growth, there are critics of its distributional effects (e.g. Griffin, 1979). While the introduction of new varieties and the commercialisation of the agrarian sector had reached many Asian and Latin American regions by the eighties, the “Green Revolu- tion” never took off in Sub-Saharan Africa. The causes are diverse ranging from a lack of incen- tives (e.g. related to low population density), to poor policies embedded within a problematic governance structure, to the unsuitability of the biophysical environment (e.g. Voortman et al., 2003; Otsuka, 2006 and World Bank, 2007). The debate on a “green revolution for Sub-Saharan Africa” has, however, revived with the publication of the 2008 World Development Report (WDR) which focuses upon ‘Agri- culture for development’. The report acknowledges the specific constraints upon the agricultural sector in the African continent, and highlights that a “green revolution”, if one is to develop at all, will have to concentrate upon the potential of smallholder farmers (World Bank, 2007). These discussions are highly relevant for Rwanda where officials are now planning agrarian and land reforms to increase agricultural efficiency and output. By promoting internationally the idea of a “green revolution” for Rwanda, national officials hope to fit their ambitions for unique policy reforms into a larger international donor-funded framework. This paper first analyses the political economy of Rwanda from a historical perspec- tive. It outlines how political evolutions – with special reference to 1994 – have brought to power a political élite whose identity (both ethnic and spatial) differs profoundly from that of the over- all majority of the population. The main part of the paper links the identity of the ‘new’ political élite to its vision and ambitions to ‘create’ or foster a “green revolution” in Rwanda. Based upon interviews conducted in mid-2007, the paper elaborately illustrates the strong ambitions of policy makers to re-engineer the Rwandan agricultural sector into a professionalised motor for economic growth, with little place left for traditional smallholder agriculture. The paper points to the flaws and shortcomings in this argumentation. In the final part, it draws conclusions from the Rwandan case to feed the wider debate on how the dynamics of political economy shape the chances for a successful “green revolution” for Sub-Saharan Africa. A Green Revolution for Rwanda? IOB DISCUSSION PAPER 2008-06 • 1. THE POLITicaL ECONOMY OF RWANDA: THE DISTRIBUTION OF POWER AND WEALTH Rural development in a country is not a purely technical issue. Bebbington points to the interrelatedness of various societal dynamics in shaping rural living conditions, “Neither patterns of asset distribution nor institutional conditions in rural areas are accidental. Indeed, they each derive from the broader relationships between politics, economy, and society that drive and undergird the overall patterns of rural development” (Bebbington et al., 2006, 1963). The WDR 2008 outlines that agricultural policy making is predetermined by the political economy dynamics of a country as it results from a political bargaining process driven by the power dynamics between citizens and politicians (World Bank, 2007). Therefore, one should examine the context of a country’s political economy to understand the political élite’s specific discourse on rural development em- bedded within its (proposed)
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