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Reductions in Life Expectancy Directly Associated with COVID-19 in 2020 Catalogue no. 91F0015M ISSN 1205-996X ISBN 978-0-660-38614-0 Demographic Documents Reductions in life expectancy directly associated with COVID-19 in 2020 by Patrice Dion Release date: June 1, 2021 How to obtain more information For information about this product or the wide range of services and data available from Statistics Canada, visit our website, www.statcan.gc.ca. You can also contact us by Email at [email protected] Telephone, from Monday to Friday, 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., at the following numbers: • Statistical Information Service 1-800-263-1136 • National telecommunications device for the hearing impaired 1-800-363-7629 • Fax line 1-514-283-9350 Depository Services Program • Inquiries line 1-800-635-7943 • Fax line 1-800-565-7757 Standards of service to the public Note of appreciation Statistics Canada is committed to serving its clients in a prompt, Canada owes the success of its statistical system to a reliable and courteous manner. To this end, Statistics Canada long-standing partnership between Statistics Canada, the has developed standards of service that its employees observe. citizens of Canada, its businesses, governments and other To obtain a copy of these service standards, please contact institutions. Accurate and timely statistical information Statistics Canada toll-free at 1-800-263-1136. The service could not be produced without their continued co-operation standards are also published on www.statcan.gc.ca under and goodwill. “Contact us” > “Standards of service to the public.” Published by authority of the Minister responsible for Statistics Canada © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada as represented by the Minister of Industry, 2021 All rights reserved. Use of this publication is governed by the Statistics Canada Open Licence Agreement. An HTML version is also available. Cette publication est aussi disponible en français. Reductions in life expectancy directly associated with COVID-19 in 2020 REDUCTIONS IN LIFE EXPECTANCY DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH COVID-19 IN 2020 BY PATRICE DION CENTRE FOR DEMOGRAPHY Demographic Documents - No. 19 - Statistics Canada Catalogue No. 91F0015M 1 Reductions in life expectancy directly associated with COVID-19 in 2020 TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................................3 Introduction ..........................................................................................................................................................4 Findings ...............................................................................................................................................................5 Discussion ............................................................................................................................................................8 Methods ............................................................................................................................................................. 10 References ......................................................................................................................................................... 11 Tables 1. COVID-19 mortality indicators and life expectancy in 2019, Canada and provinces that counted at least 10 deaths due to COVID-19 .............................................................................................................................................5 2. Annual variations in life expectancy at birth, 2010 to 2019, and reduction caused by COVID-19 by sex, Canada and provinces that counted at least 10 deaths due to COVID-19 ............................................................................ 7 Chart 1. Annual variations in life expectancy at birth, 1999 to 2019, and reduction caused by COVID-19 by sex, Canada ........... 6 2 Demographic Documents - No. 19 - Statistics Canada Catalogue No. 91F0015M Reductions in life expectancy directly associated with COVID-19 in 2020 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author would like to thank Elham Sirag and Carol D’Aoust for their contribution to this study. Earlier versions of this document were enriched by feedback from Owen Phillips, Michael Tjepkema, Tracey Bushnik, Samuel Vézina, Laurent Martel, Martin Turcotte, Julie Bernier and Yvan Clermont. Demographic Documents - No. 19 - Statistics Canada Catalogue No. 91F0015M 3 Reductions in life expectancy directly associated with COVID-19 in 2020 REDUCTIONS IN LIFE EXPECTANCY DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH COVID-19 IN 2020 BY PATRICE DION CENTRE FOR DEMOGRAPHY Introduction Life expectancy is an indicator widely used to measure the health of populations. It can be defined as the average number of years lived by newborns who would be exposed to the conditions observed in a given period throughout their lives. Even if it is relatively complex to calculate, it can be interpreted intuitively. This indicator also lends itself well to comparisons over time, making it possible to capture changes in peoples’ living conditions. The aim of this study is to measure the reduction in life expectancy at birth (LEB) as a direct consequence of the pandemic in the country and in the affected provinces. To do this, two LEB estimates are produced and compared: one reflecting a hypothetical situation without a pandemic, and the other taking into account deaths attributed to COVID-19 in 2020. The results are evaluated in light of the LEB changes observed in recent years. 4 Demographic Documents - No. 19 - Statistics Canada Catalogue No. 91F0015M Reductions in life expectancy directly associated with COVID-19 in 2020 Findings Over 15,000 deaths attributed to COVID-19 in 2020 in the country According to surveillance data produced by the Public Health Agency of Canada, COVID-19 caused over 15,600 deaths in the country in 2020, for a Crude COVID-19 Death Rate (CCDR) of 0.41 per thousand (Table 1). The average age of Canadians who died of COVID-19 in 2020 is 83.8 years. By comparison, the average age at death in Canada in 2019 was 76.5 years. Some provinces were hit harder than others. With more than half of the deaths due to COVID-19 in the country in 2020, Quebec has a CCDR of 0.96 per thousand, more than double the Canadian value. Conversely, the CCDR was less than half the Canadian value in Nova Scotia, Saskatchewan and British Columbia. Lastly, fewer than 10 COVID deaths were counted in Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick and the territories. Table 1 COVID-19 mortality indicators and life expectancy in 2019, Canada and provinces that counted at least 10 deaths due to COVID-19 Deaths, Average age at death, Crude death rate, Life expectancy Region due to COVID-19 due to COVID-19 due to COVID-19 in 2019 number in years per thousand in years Canada 15,651 83.8 0.41 82.10 Nova Scotia 65 81.5 0.07 80.39 Quebec 8,226 84.2 0.96 82.86 Ontario 4,576 83.0 0.31 82.44 Manitoba 667 77.8 0.48 80.07 Saskatchewan 155 71.8 0.13 80.31 Alberta 1,046 82.9 0.24 81.62 British Columbia 901 84.4 0.18 82.36 Sources: Public Health Agency of Canada, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Daily Epidemiology Update, updated January 24, 2021. Statistics Canada: Canadian Vital Statistics Database, provisional death counts; Population estimates on July 1, by age and sex, Table 17-10-0005-01; Life expectancy and other elements of the life table, Canada, all provinces except Prince Edward Island, Table 13-10-0114-01. Demographic Documents - No. 19 - Statistics Canada Catalogue No. 91F0015M 5 Reductions in life expectancy directly associated with COVID-19 in 2020 Deaths caused by COVID-19 contributed to an estimated reduction in LEB of 0.41 years in 2020 in Canada Life expectancy at birth (LEB) in Canada in 2020 is still unknown, but it will likely be lower compared with previous years. Deaths caused by COVID-19 contributed to an estimated reduction in LEB of 0.41 years in 2020. Compared to the life expectancy of 82.10 years observed in 2019, this decrease of 0.41 years would reduce LEB to what it was six years earlier, in 2013 (81.68 years). Chart 1 shows the changes in LEB in Canada in the past 20 years and the variation associated with COVID-19. LEB grew almost continuously during this period; in fact, it has done so since 1921.[1] From 2000 to 2019, gains were slightly larger among men than women. Larger at the start of the period, annual gains were smaller thereafter. LEB even experienced a slight decrease of 0.07 years in 2017, which was caused in large part by the opioid epidemic that was raging in Canada.[2] In the past decade, LEB has risen by 0.13 years on average. By comparison, the estimated reduction in LEB associated with COVID-19 is three times larger. Chart 1 Annual variations in life expectancy at birth, 1999 to 2019, and reduction caused by COVID-19 by sex, Canada in years Both sexes 0.50 0.25 0.00 -0.25 -0.50 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 COVID-19 in years Females 0.50 0.25 0.00 -0.25 -0.50 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 COVID-19 in years Males 0.50 0.25 0.00 -0.25 -0.50 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 COVID-19 Notes: Life expectancy estimates are calculated for three-year periods. The year indicated represents the last year of the period. The confidence intervals reflect the expected impact of random fluctuations over time on the estimated annual variations in LEB. When the interval excludes zero, the probability of the annual variation being the result of pure chance
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