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Economic Recovery Pathways for Canada's Energy Industry: Part 1 – Covid-19 Impacts

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Economic Recovery Pathways for Canada's Energy Industry: Part 1 – Covid-19 Impacts STUDY NO. 192A SEPTEMBER 2020 ECONOMIC RECOVERY PATHWAYS FOR CANADA'S ENERGY INDUSTRY: PART 1 – COVID-19 IMPACTS 3512 - 33 Street NW, #150, Calgary, AB T2L 2A6 350 Sparks Street, #805, Ottawa, ON K1R 7S8 403.282.1231 | www.ceri.ca | [email protected] @ceri_canada Canadian Energy Research Institute ECONOMIC RECOVERY PATHWAYS FOR CANADA’S ENERGY INDUSTRY: PART 1 – COVID-19 IMPACTS iv Canadian Energy Research Institute Economic Recovery Pathways for Canada’s Energy Industry: Part 1 – COVID-19 Impacts Authors: Victor Gallardo, Eranda Bartholameuz, Nurul Hossain Recommended Citation (Author-date style): Gallardo V. Bartholameuz E. Hossain N. 2020. “Economic Recovery Pathways for Canada’s Energy Industry: Part 1 – COVID-19 Impacts.” Study No. 192A. Calgary, AB: Canadian Energy Research Institute. https://ceri.ca/assets/files/Study 192A Full Report.pdf Recommended Citation (Numbered style): V. Gallardo, E. Bartholameuz, N. Hossain. “Economic Recovery Pathways for Canada’s Energy Industry: Part 1 – COVID-19 Impacts.” Canadian Energy Research Institute, Calgary, AB, Study No. 192A, 2020. URL: https://ceri.ca/assets/files/Study 192A Full Report.pdf Copyright © Canadian Energy Research Institute, 2020 Sections of this study may be reproduced in magazines and newspapers with acknowledgment to the Canadian Energy Research Institute September 2020 Printed in Canada Acknowledgements: The authors of this report would like to extend their thanks and sincere gratitude to all CERI staff involved in the production and editing of the material. Responsibility for any errors, interpretations, or omissions lies solely with CERI. ABOUT THE CANADIAN ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Founded in 1975, the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) is an independent, registered charitable organization specializing in the analysis of energy economics and related environmental policy issues in the energy production, transportation, and consumption sectors. Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, and objective economic research of energy and environmental issues to benefit business, government, academia, and the public. For more information about CERI, visit www.ceri.ca. CANADIAN ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE 150, 3512 – 33 Street NW, Calgary, Alberta T2L 2A6 Email: [email protected] Phone: 403-282-1231 September 2020 Economic Recovery Pathways for Canada’s Energy Industry: Part 1 – COVID-19 Impacts iii Table of Contents List of Figures ................................................................................................................................................ v Acronyms and Abbreviations ...................................................................................................................... vii Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................................... ix Chapter 1: Background ................................................................................................................................. 1 Coronavirus Disease 2019 ........................................................................................................................ 1 Global Economic Impacts ......................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 2: Canadian Experience ................................................................................................................... 3 COVID-19 Statistics in Canada .................................................................................................................. 3 Canada Within the Global Context ........................................................................................................... 4 Macroeconomic Impacts .......................................................................................................................... 5 Chapter 3: COVID-19 Impacts on the Canadian Energy Industry.................................................................. 9 Energy Industry in Canada ........................................................................................................................ 9 Impacts on the Oil Sector ....................................................................................................................... 10 Impacts on Natural Gas and Electricity .................................................................................................. 13 Impacts on the Renewable Energy Sector .............................................................................................. 16 Chapter 4: Relief Programs and Stimulus Packages .................................................................................... 17 Pandemic Relief Programs ...................................................................................................................... 17 Relief Programs for the Energy Industry ................................................................................................ 18 Chapter 5: Canadian Multi-regional Input-Output Model .......................................................................... 19 Input-Output Models .............................................................................................................................. 19 Chapter 6: Discussion and Incoming COVID-19 Impact Studies ................................................................. 21 Bibliography ................................................................................................................................................ 23 Appendix A: Provincial COVID-19 Relief Programs ..................................................................................... 26 Appendix B: Mathematical Framework of Input-Output Models ............................................................... 30 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 31 Generic Model ........................................................................................................................................ 31 Canadian Input-Output Model ............................................................................................................... 31 Canadian Multipliers Derived from CERI's MRIO .................................................................................... 32 Interprovincial Multipliers ...................................................................................................................... 33 Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 34 Assumptions and Limitation ................................................................................................................... 34 September 2020 iv Canadian Energy Research Institute Page blank September 2020 Economic Recovery Pathways for Canada’s Energy Industry: Part 1 – COVID-19 Impacts v List of Figures Figure 2.1: COVID-19 Confirmed Cases in Canada (as of August 20, 2020) .................................................. 3 Figure 2.2: COVID-19 Confirmed Cases Per 100,000 Residents (as of August 20, 2020) ............................. 4 Figure 2.3: Real GDP Growth Projection in Selected Countries, 2020 .......................................................... 4 Figure 2.4: Year Over Year Change in the Harmonized Monthly Unemployment Rate (2019-2020) .......... 5 Figure 3.1: Seasonally Adjusted Imports and Exports of Energy Products (2018 - 2020)............................. 9 Figure 3.2: WTI Monthly Average Price (1998-2020) ................................................................................. 11 Figure 3.3: WCS Monthly Average Price (2005-2020) ................................................................................ 11 Figure 3.4: Average Retail Prices for Gasoline in Canada (2005-2020) ...................................................... 12 Figure 3.5: Canadian Crude Oil and Equivalent Production (2018-2020) ................................................... 13 Figure 3.6: Natural Gas Consumption by End-user in Canada (2000-2018) ............................................... 14 Figure 3.7: Electricity Consumption by End-user in Canada (2000-2018) .................................................. 15 Figure 3.8: Monthly Natural Gas Consumption by End-user – 2019 vs 2020 ............................................. 15 Figure 3.9: Monthly Electricity Generation in Canada – 2020 vs 2015-2019 Average ............................... 16 Figure 5.1: Input-Output Model: Conceptual Overview ............................................................................. 20 September 2020 vi Canadian Energy Research Institute Page blank September 2020 Economic Recovery Pathways for Canada’s Energy Industry: Part 1 – COVID-19 Impacts vii Acronyms and Abbreviations AESO Alberta Electricity System Operator BCAP Business Credit Available Program CAD Canadian Dollar CEBA Canada Emergency Business Account CERI Canadian Energy Research Institute COVID-19 Coronavirus Disease 2019 ERF Emissions Reduction Fund GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Greenhouse Gas I/O Input-Output IMF International Monetary Fund LEEFF Large Employer Emergency Financing Facility LNG Liquified natural gas MRIO Multi-regional Input-Output (Model) NRCan Natural Resources Canada OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
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