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Volterra Partners, November 2018 Congestion on Embankment A report for Unblock the Embankment by Volterra Partners, November 2018 Volterra 1 1 Introduction East-West Cycle Superhighway 1.1 The East-West Cycle Superhighway (EWCS) from Tower Hill to Lancaster Gate is one of a number of new cycle superhighways recently constructed as part of the Cycle Superhighways programme. The programme is intended to generate and support a large anticipated growth in cycling, with a target of 1.5m cycle journeys per day by 2026, as part of the Mayor’s vision for cycling in London. The Cycle Superhighways programme forms part of a £0.9m cycling portfolio – one of five core portfolios totalling £4bn in road investments as part of TfL’s Road Modernisation Plan. 1.2 The EWCS, known as Cycle Superhighway 3, is now open to cyclists in both directions from Tower Hill to Lancaster Gate, with minor finishing works continuing until the end of autumn 2018. The changes as part of the EWCS are wide-ranging (summarised in Annex 1) and include: Removal of an eastbound traffic lane to make way for a segregated, two-way cycle track to separate cyclists from motor traffic; Junction innovations including early start, early release and two-stage right turn facilities for cyclists; More pedestrian space through wider footways, traffic islands, and bus and coach stop waiting areas; New pedestrian crossings in some places and improved crossings elsewhere. 1.3 According to TfL, the goal of the EWCS is to encourage the large number of people who would like to cycle, but who currently feel unable (due largely to safety concerns), and to improve safety for the existing cyclists. It does that, in large part, by prioritising cyclists over drivers, both in terms of safety and journey times. 1.4 Modelling was undertaken by TfL on the expected journey time impacts of the changes prior to the scheme being built, which initially showed an increased journey time of around 16 minutes between Limehouse Link Tunnel and Hyde Park Corner in the AM Peak in the westbound direction. In response to consultation undertaken in autumn 2014, changes were made to the scheme to reduce the journey time impact to six minutes. These changes included retaining two lanes of traffic along most of the westbound carriageway between Tower Hill and Westminster Bridge. 1.5 This report focuses on the journey time changes to transport users rather than conducting an economic appraisal. The report uses the benefits and costs predicted by TfL in February 2015, and initial analysis of how the benefits and costs to transport users have changed based on observed data after the opening of the EWCS. Unblock the Embankment | Congestion on Embankment Volterra 2 2 Expected impacts TfL vehicle journey time modelling 2.1 While the scheme’s aims were to increase the number of cyclists in London and improve the safety of existing cyclists, the scheme has had knock on impacts on drivers by reducing the space available to motorists, losing a lane of traffic along much of the route. 2.2 TfL modelling, undertaken prior to EWCS opening, shows the travel times on certain links of road in both the AM and PM peak and in each direction. Journey times were modelled for the three central London sections of the route – East Smithfield (just east of Tower Hill) to St Margaret’s Street (Parliament Square); Westminster Bridge to Hyde Park Corner; and Lancaster Gate to the A40 Westway flyover, along Westbourne Terrace. The section through Hyde Park was not modelled as TfL were still finalising proposals along this stretch. These links, along with the long link between Hyde Park Corner and Limehouse Link Tunnel, are shown in Figure 1. Figure 1: Map of Cycle superhighway sections Unblock the Embankment | Congestion on Embankment Volterra 3 2.3 The model outputs give a ‘base’ journey time, which represents the situation at the time the model was run, and a ‘future base’ which represents the situation that was expected as of December 2016 in the absence of the scheme. These can be compared with the modelled scenario showing the situation in December 2016 with the scheme in place. Figure 2 shows the journey times in each scenario. 2.4 As shown in Figure 2, the travel times were expected to decrease slightly by December 2016 in the absence of the scheme, and expected to increase with the scheme in place. The longest section of the EWCS for which modelling is available is the section between Limehouse Link and Hyde Park corner. On this link, when comparing the future base scenario with the ‘with scheme’ scenario, the EWCS leads to a: 5.7 minute delay in the AM peak eastbound; 4.5 minute delay in the PM peak eastbound; 8.2 minute delay in the AM peak westbound; and 7.7 minute delay in the PM peak westbound. 2.5 Based on these modelled delays, the level of time lost for motor vehicle users due to the EWCS was expected to be c.400 hours. This is based on the observed volumes of traffic and the modelled delays in each of the peak periods, in each direction. These hours lost to congestion can are broken down as follows: 105 hours lost in the AM peak eastbound; 70 hours lost in the PM peak eastbound; 100 hours lost in the AM peak westbound; and 135 hours lost in the PM peak westbound. Unblock the Embankment | Congestion on Embankment Volterra 4 Figure 2: Motor Vehicle travel times from TfL modelling Unblock the Embankment | Congestion on Embankment Volterra 5 Changes due to consultation 2.6 Figure 2 shows that the expected delays due to the scheme changed over time as alterations were made in response to consultation. In particular, the predicted increase in journey times over the future base scenario in the westbound AM peak fell from almost 18 minutes (Panel A) to 8 minutes (Panel B). This was following changes made after consultation that retained two lanes of traffic along most of the westbound carriageway between Tower Hill and Westminster Bridge. 2.7 Between the September 2014 initial model results and the February 2015 revised results, the main impacts were to: Lower the increase in journey times between Limehouse Link tunnel and Hyde Park Corner by almost 10 minutes in the westbound direction in both AM and PM peaks; Increase the journey time delay on the same route in the eastbound direction in the PM peak by over a minute, and reduce the delay in the AM peak by over 3 minutes; Increase the delay on the westbound link between East Smithfield and St Margaret Street by over 3 minutes in the AM peak, while reducing delays by almost 8 minutes in the PM peak. 2.8 These changes are due to a number of alterations made to the scheme, including: The retention of two westbound traffic lanes between Tower Hill and Northumberland Avenue; Lifting some of the previously proposed traffic restrictions at Fish Street Hill, Horse Guards Road and Storey’s Gate; Removal or relocation of a bus/coach stop and removal of one of three pedestrian crossings near the Victoria Embankment/Northumberland Avenue junction to aid traffic flow; More loading, disabled and motorcycle parking on Victoria Embankment and allowing more time for loading. Expected journey time benefits/costs of the scheme Initial BCR 2.9 A Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR) was calculated for each of the Cycle Superhighways proposed1, of which the East-West route was the only one which was predicted to have a negative BCR (i.e. the scheme produces net disbenefits rather than positive benefits). 2.10 The TfL Board paper for the proposed schemes breaks down the costs and benefits, and shows that the negative impacts on journey times and additional bus operating costs outweighed the health, safety and ambience benefits, resulting in net annual disbenefits of over £8m (see Figure 3 – EW column). 1 Transport for London (TfL). Proposed Cycle Superhighways Schemes – Board paper. 4 February 2015. Unblock the Embankment | Congestion on Embankment Volterra 6 Figure 3: TfL modelled BCR Source: TfL (2015) Estimated benefits/costs due to journey time savings 2.11 Based on the journey time data from TfL modelling summarised in Figure 2, the journey time costs can be valued. This is done by applying values of time from TfL’s Business Case Development Manual. The results are not directly comparable to those produced by TfL (summarised in Figure 3) as the data available is not as detailed as the model data that TfL has access to. 2.12 The delays from Limehouse Link to Hyde Park Corner shown in Figure 2 (Panel B) result in £5.4m worth of journey time costs per year, of which 48% are costs to trips in work time. Over a 30 year appraisal period, the net present value (NPV) is estimated to be - £118m. Of these journey time disbenefits, 94% are due to increases in private motor vehicle journey times. 2.13 Delays to four bus routes affected by the EWCS were modelled and included in the journey time costs, resulting in costs of £450k per year, or £8.6m NPV over a 30 year appraisal period. 2.14 These delays need to be compared to the journey time benefits to cyclists using the route. TfL modelling predicted: 2 minute delays to cycle journey times between Royal Mint Street and Hyde Park Corner in the eastbound AM peak; 2 minute journey time savings in the westbound AM peak; 2 minute journey time savings in the eastbound PM peak; 3 minute journey time savings in the westbound PM peak.
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