New Egypt’ the United States Should Present Egyptian Leaders with a Set of Choices

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LATIMES.COM/OPINION WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 28, 2012 A19

OP-ED What would Lincoln do?

DOYLE McMANUS and the capital’s resident optimist, guests. So, on Tuesday, I asked a partial step on the road to civil And here’s where Obama might pronounced the film a song to “the spokesman Jay Carney about rights. want to draw a lesson from “Lin- n the rest of the country, it nobility of politics.” Obama’s reaction. “If Abraham Lincoln could coln.” When the 16th president may be just another movie, “It shows that you can do more “The president thinks Spiel- make some compromises as part of decided to aim high and seek a but in Washington, Steven good in politics than in any other berg’s ‘Lincoln’ is both an excellent governance, then surely we can constitutional amendment ban- I Spielberg’s “Lincoln” has sphere,” he wrote, but “only if you movie and a vivid reminder that make some compromises when it ning slavery, his secretary of State, become a political Rorschach are willing to stain your own char- our 16th president was not just a comes to handling our budget,” William Seward, advised against it test. acter in order to serve others — if brilliant orator and statesman but Obama said. as too risky; there were better uses It seems as if every pundit in the you are willing to bamboozle, trim a masterful politician,” Carney told Of course, that was the Obama of the president’s political capital, capital has gone to see the master- [and] compromise.” me in an email. But he declined to of 2011, only months after the Re- he said. “Why tarnish your invalu- ful biopic about our 16th president, Bloomberg political columnist tell me exactly which Lincoln les- publican tsunami of the 2010 con- able luster?” But Lincoln plunged and — surprise — they all found Al Hunt, a pragmatic centrist, son the president took away: the gressional election. In those days, ahead. “I like our chances,” he said. something to support their views argued that the movie’s message is one about clinging firmly to ambi- it looked as if the country had Obama has that risk-taking about contemporary politics. that the key to statesmanship is tious goals or the one about accept- taken a sharp turn to the right. side too. In his first term, the issue The analogies are hard to resist. old-fashioned horse trading. “Our ing almost any tactical compro- Obama’s reelection was far from was healthcare reform. His chief of The movie is set in the first months representatives are hired by the mise on the way there. reassured, and the Senate was staff, Rahm Emanuel, played the after Lincoln won a second term, voters not to be priests or In fact, though, Obama offered widely expected to fall into Repub- part of Seward and argued for facing an unruly lame-duck Con- philosophers, but to be politi- his views on Lincoln last year. In lican hands in 2012. smaller, incremental measures. gress. Over the objections of risk- cians,” Hunt wrote. response to criticism that he But that’s not what happened. Obama rejected the advice and averse aides, the president decides Wrong, protested liberal Greg hadn’t fought hard enough for the Obama fought back and won re- risked his presidency on a big, to seek passage of a constitutional Sargent of the Washington Post: things he believed in, Obama cited election, more or less by sticking to ambitious bill. amendment abolishing slavery, Lincoln’s lesson for his successors Lincoln’s tactical flexibility. his guns — as Lincoln did in 1864. We don’t know yet what choices and proves willing to cut almost isn’t compromise but resolve. “I think it’s fair to say that Abra- And the Democrats, to their sur- Obama has made on his second- any corner to gain his objective. “History was shaped largely by ham Lincoln had convictions. But prise, gained two seats in the Sen- term goals beyond the immediate What does that tell us about the Lincoln’s intransigence at the right he constantly was making conces- ate. priority of seeking a deal on taxes choices before a newly reelected moments,” Sargent wrote. sions and compromises,” Obama In the weeks since the election, and spending. But as one moviego- President Obama and a lame-duck About the only Washingtonian told voters at a 2011 town meeting. Obama has continued to sound er to another, I’ll offer him some Congress wrestling with a year-end who hadn’t weighed in yet was our He then noted that Lincoln’s somewhat Lincolnesque: firm on advice: Take Lincoln as a model deadline over taxes and spending current president, who saw the Emancipation Proclamation didn’t his main goal — a fiscal deal that and aim for the biggest, most ambi- cuts? movie in the White House screen- free all the slaves, and that even the includes raising taxes on the tious bargain you can get. David Brooks of the New York ing room with Spielberg and actor subsequent 13th Amendment, the wealthy — but flexible on how to Times, a moderate conservative Daniel Day-Lewis among his subject of Spielberg’s film, was only get there. [email protected] Shaping the ‘new Egypt’ The United States should present Egyptian leaders with a set of choices.

By Vin Weber and leaders from taking the necessary Gregory B. Craig decisions to repair the economy and pursue responsible policies. ast week highlighted But it also is too risky to endanger the challenge posed to America’s strategic situation by the Obama administra- purposefully contributing to the L tion in dealing with the creation of a potentially failed “new Egypt.” state astride the Suez Canal and On Wednesday, the White across the Sinai from Israel. House thanked Mohamed Morsi, We advocate a third course: Egypt’s first civilian president and presenting Egyptian leaders with a former leader of the Muslim a set of choices that offer a path- Brotherhood, for his “construc- way to act as responsible national tive” contribution to a Gaza cease- leaders rather than as religiously fire, implicitly affirming Egypt’s inspired ideologues. Indeed, while role as a stabilizing force in a trou- it is a mistake to believe the United Rob Rogers Pittsburgh Post-Gazette bled region. Just one day later, af- States can persuade or compel the ter having proved his strategic val- Islamists governing Egypt to give ue in much the same way his pred- up their deeply held ideology, it is ecessor did, Morsi took another not wrong to base policy on the page from Hosni Mubarak’s play- idea that American leverage can book by placing his decrees be- affect Egyptian behavior. We call Crime and punishment yond any judicial review. Many this a policy of “engagement with- Egyptians saw this as a power out illusions.” By James Austin was public safety realignment, But attempts to reform the grab. Under pressure from the ju- Specifically, we recommend which moved responsibility for three-strikes law and other justice diciary, Morsi this week appears to that President Obama agree to fter decades of pris- people convicted of nonviolent, policies have used fiscal argument have partially relented. But the certify to Congress that Egypt on planning work in non-sex, non-serious crimes from before — unsuccessfully. I believe signal he sent, at home and must fulfill two well-defined sets of California and across state prisons and parole to county the key to Proposition 36’s success abroad, suggests he wants near- commitments — on regional A the country, I’ve seen jails and probation officers. was support from district attor- dictatorial powers. peace and on bilateral strategic two prevailing as- More than a year into this land- neys in L.A., San Francisco and Washington has to ask: Who cooperation — as a condition of sumptions about crime and pun- mark approach, some counties are San Jose, as well as police leaders then governs Egypt? An ideologue continued U.S. aid and political ishment finally begin to crack seeing previous or new programs like LAPD Chief Charlie Beck. bent on using political power to Is- backing for international loans. In amid years of real-world testing. (alternatives to incarceration) They are on the front lines of law lamize Egypt or a pragmatic na- addition, through private conver- The first is that prisons are the bear fruit, but many are also strug- enforcement, and their perspec- tional leader committed to ad- sation and public messaging, the primary way to reduce crime. The gling with overcrowding and add- tives carry great weight with vancing the interests of all the president and congressional lead- second is that law enforcement will ed costs. This has forced some voters. people? Or, is he a bit of both? ers should explain to Egyptians an not support changes that reduce sheriffs to release people they We have more work to do. Re- The jury is out and may be for informal condition: The United incarceration. Both of these otherwise would send to jail or ducing the justice system’s costs some time. After examining poli- States can maintain a close and changing perceptions are converg- state prison. without compromising public tics in the “new Egypt” for three mutually beneficial relationship ing now in California, just when the Making matters worse, the safety starts with the acknowledg- months, we have concluded that only with a government that is state must make major changes to state will not be able to meet the ment that the state has for too long not only are the answers uncer- moving forward on constitutional protect its public safety and fiscal federal deadline and may have to punished people beyond its tain but that the revolution that democracy and not engaged in security. reduce the number of people in means, and too often those pun- swept Mubarak from power nearly substantial violations of human First, some context. California state prisons by as many as 15,000 ishments did not fit the crime, or two years ago is not over. Funda- rights or measures against women has been experiencing its lowest more by the end of 2013. To con- ultimately improve public safety. mental questions about the direc- and religious minorities. crime rates since 1960, according to front this challenge, a federal panel Fortunately, there are models in tion of the Muslim Brotherhood, Finally, the administration the latest statewide data (from of judges asked me to work with practice that counties can imple- the popularity of the even more ex- should use a portion of Egypt’s 2011). This drop is partly due to ment or expand for immediate im- treme Salafists, the potential military aid — at least $100 million demographics (an aging popula- pact. unity of non-Islamist parties, the to start, and increasing over time tion) and other external factors, San Francisco, Contra Costa role of the military in politics and — as incentive for more aggressive but improvements in policing pro- Prison can’t be and Santa Cruz are among many the approach all these actors take efforts to combat terrorism in the cedures and better coordination California’s primary counties using split sentences — toward key U.S. interests — in- Sinai, given the urgency of this is- among law enforcement agencies the person spends part of the time cluding peace with Israel — re- sue to U.S. interests. also play a critical role. tool to fight crime. on supervised probation and the main profoundly unclear. But it is not enough to build In 1960, California’s prison rest incarcerated — to ensure their But analytical uncertainty is this interest-based relationship population was less than 22,000. If jail populations do not increase not a policy. Egypt is important: It with the Morsi government. We you applied that year’s incarcera- the California Department of Cor- post-realignment. Contra Costa is the largest, most powerful Arab urge the administration to engage tion rate to today’s crime rate and rections and Rehabilitation to de- County has shortened probation state, birthplace of both Anwar with the broadest possible spec- total population, the state would velop a plan that will safely reduce terms (18 months or less versus Sadat and Ayman Zawahiri and trum of political actors in Egypt. have only 52,000 prisoners, well the prison population without three- to five-year terms), which all they represent. Washington This includes building ties with under the current state prison jeopardizing the low crime rate. has produced significantly lower has a stake in the choices its new non-Islamist groups, despite their population of about 130,000. This It can be done, but the real task recidivism rates and probation government makes. Certain out- internal divisions and deep disuni- dramatic rise is because the state, will be the politics, not the science, caseloads. comes are more likely than others ty, as well as spending funds for over the decades, dramatically in- of reducing a huge, expensive pris- The Los Angeles County Sher- to lead to an Egypt willing to coop- civil society support. Re-energiz- creased the number of people it on population. Fortunately, some iff’s Department has launched a erate with the United States on ing U.S. outreach beyond the Mus- sent to prison and the length of leaders in law enforcement are comprehensive rehabilitation pro- critical issues, and the U.S. should lim Brotherhood is both right and their imprisonment. stepping forward to help policy- gram to reduce jail violence and re- work to advance the prospects of smart. Not only is this a way to However, a growing body of sci- makers make necessary changes. cidivism, and soon will begin a pi- such cooperation. guard against the widely held im- ence shows that prison-only ap- Take, for example, the role they lot pretrial program that monitors The main source of American pression that Washington actu- proaches may feel good initially — played in the recent passage of low-risk offenders in the communi- leverage with Egypt is the sub- ally made the Brotherhood’s rise and be safe politically — but an Proposition 36. Voters — by a 2-1 ty as they await trial, instead of stantial military and economic as- to power possible, but strengthen- overreliance on incarceration ulti- margin — passed the initiative, having them sit in crowded jails. sistance we provide and the even ing the non-Islamist opposition mately can make things worse. In which revises the state’s 1994 These approaches and others more substantial influence we presents the best opportunity for other words, there is limited scien- three-strikes law so that only vio- show that we can safely reduce jail wield with international donors vi- pulling the governing Islamists in tific evidence that prison reduces lent felonies will count as a third and prison populations, but only if tal to Egypt’s effort to avert finan- a more moderate direction. crime, or that longer prison terms strike that would lock someone up brave policymakers and leaders in cial calamity. Some contend the This is not an easy policy to im- reduce recidivism or crime rates. for 25 years to life. According to law enforcement continue to test U.S. should speed aid and support plement. But building a relation- The California Department of election-night polling by Californi- the faltering assumptions that to Egypt, with loose and minimal ship with Egypt based on a clear Corrections and Rehabilitation’s ans for Safety and Justice, voters prison is the first or only answer to conditions, to prevent it from go- strategic bargain — offering ben- data show that people serving one, wanted to reform three strikes for crime, and that law enforcement is ing over its own fiscal cliff and be- efits for cooperation and penalties two or three years have the same a variety of reasons, including its not open to change. coming a failed state. Others ar- for noncompliance – is in the best recidivism rates. We also know excessive sentences for petty gue that Washington should with- interest of both our countries. that the vast majority of people ar- crimes and to reserve prison space James Austin, president of hold aid and support because the rested in California are not re- for more dangerous crimes. the JFA Institute, is a former U.S. has no interest in the success Vin Weber, a former Republican cently released prisoners. Mean- However, 7 in 10 voters sup- executive with the Institute on of an Islamist government that congressman from Minnesota, while, New York and New Jersey ported the change because of its Crime, Justice and Corrections could become a model for the and Gregory B. Craig, have significantly reduced their fiscal impact. The nonpartisan at George Washington University. spread of radical Sunni extrem- President Obama’s former prison populations and continued Legislative Analyst’s Office pre- ism in the region. White House counsel, are the to lower their crime rates. dicts that the adjustment made by We reject both options. It is too authors of the Washington That’s good news for California Proposition 36 will save more than risky to provide Egypt with virtu- Institute report, “Engagement because in 2011, the U.S. Supreme $100 million a year. The percentage ally unconditional aid and sup- Without Illusions: Building an Court ruled that California must of California’s general fund dedi- Patt Morrison port, feeding a dangerous sense of Interest-Based Relationship reduce its badly crowded prison cated to corrections has risen, entitlement that would free its with the ‘New Egypt.’ ” population. The legislative result from 2.9% in 1981to 10.5% last year. has the day off