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Donnelly Faces the Full Brunt of Trump for “Other” and 7% Two MAGA Rallies and Undecided

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Donnelly Faces the Full Brunt of Trump for “Other” and 7% Two MAGA Rallies and Undecided V24, N12 Thursday, Nov. 1, 2018 Donnelly faces the full brunt of Trump for “other” and 7% Two MAGA rallies and undecided. Donnelly a series of polls give had a 63-47% lead among people who Braun late mo, but had already voted and he had a 48-32% lead NBC/Marist, Fox have among independents. President Trump’s ap- Donnelly leading proval stood at 48/40 approve/disapprove. By BRIAN A. HOWEY A CBS News survey INDIANAPOLIS – After a flurry released Sunday had of late polls from obscure firms like Braun leading 46- Mason and Cygnal, and a few sur- 43%. veys from In the Fox Poll, Republican the race shifted since partisans, September when the growing Braun was up by 2%. perception In early October, Don- at the end nelly was up by 2%. of last week Donnelly’s edge comes was that Republican Mike Braun was in large part from gaining late momentum in his race to greater party loyalty unseat U.S. Sen. Joe Donnelly. and higher interest in the election among Democrats. But on Wednesday, Fox News had Donnelly up 45-38%, which represents a true outlier, while NBC/Marist had Donnelly with a 48-46% lead over Braun, with 2% Continued on page 4 Senator Trump? By MARK SOUDER FORT WAYNE – One thing will be certain next Tuesday: If Mike Braun defeats incumbent Sen. Joe Don- nelly, it will be Trump who won the race. The president is making sure that is clear to every- “Despite coming from the op- one by making repeated appearances in Indiana, including stops the day before the vote. posite party, Joe’s always shown Obviously, internal polling – far more frequent (probably daily), the bipartisan spirit and willing- possibly by the Brad Parscale ness to reach across the aisle to operation – is optimistic that Braun will win or it is unlikely deliver results for the country that the president would risk his that we need more of in the Sen- political reputation on Indiana. His advisors also clearly under- ate these days.” stand that turnout is the key, or he would not be appearing in - Former Defense Sec.Chuck Fort Wayne on Monday night. Hagel endorsing Sen. Donnelly Page 2 There are some interesting suggesting that perhaps he should lis- subtexts going on as well. Normally ten more. Governing to this president when a key battle is in the home state seems to be by gut feel, emotion, of a sitting vice president, the closing certain preconceptions, advice from arguments would be from the vice randomly selected acquaintances, and president. Clearly, Trump wants this reinforced by people who know how victory to be seen as his victory, not to tell him variations of what he wants that of Mike Pence. to hear. All presidents do this – all Howey Politics Indiana The vice president has of them. But this president probably changed his personal emphasis since quadruples the normal mix of those WWHowey Media, LLC 405 joining with Donald Trump. Mike factors compared to listening, read- Massachusetts Ave., Suite Pence recognized the potency of ing and experience dealing with key 300 Indianapolis, IN 46204 Trump as a brand. In government, as issues. www.howeypolitics.com he was in business, Trump is obsessed The vice president has es- with the brand “Trump.” He wants it to sentially traded his independent image be seen as his version of classy and, for the right to quietly influence the Brian A. Howey, Publisher most importantly in his mind, be per- government’s policies in several criti- Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington ceived as a winner. Everything must cal ways. Most importantly, he helps Cameron Carter, Editor be the best ever. He makes no apolo- guide the president through details Joel Weyrauch, Editor gies. He just keeps moving forward and personnel to implement things Mary Lou Howey, Editor with new greatest things and assumes the president said he’d do or wanted people will forget any past mistakes. to do. Some of those things were said Mark Curry, Daily Wire, photo When Pence Jack E. Howey, Editor joined up with this Emeritus brand, he knew that he would be, in a way, like the backside of an old Subscriptions 45 rpm record that had HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 a number one hit and HPI Weekly, $350 something else on the HPI Mobile, $5.95 monthly B- side. Vice presidents Ray Volpe, Account Manager mostly are supposed to wait quietly unless 317.602.3620 the president dies or email: [email protected] happens to call, filling in at funerals and tradi- tionally campaigning in Contact HPI smaller states or those [email protected] where their political party is strongest. because they were politically useful Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 Presidents go to big states with larger (e.g. socially conservative positions) Washington: 202.256.5822 populations. and others for a blend of his previous Business Office: 317.602.3620 In 2018, the battle for views and political value (e.g., court control of the U.S. Senate ironically appointments). In Donald Trump’s has led to many key battlegrounds previous life, these things were not a © 2018, Howey Politics coming in non-swing states President big focus. Indiana. All rights reserved. Trump won by significant margins that There are also many smaller Photocopying, Internet forward- normally would fall to vice presidential things. President Trump has opin- ing, faxing or reproducing in political duty. But we have a president ions on health care, though histori- who loves to campaign, loves the cally they have been all over the map any form, whole or part, is a simplicity of sloganeering to cheering from left of Bernie Sanders to a more violation of federal law without fans, and loves to have a day when traditional conservative, free market permission from the publisher. winners are clear. Especially if it is him approach. The secretary of the agency winning. that has to actually guide the details As for governing, it’s not of the massive agencies under Health much fun. People are always telling and Human Services is Alex Azar of him that it is complicated, giving him Indiana, along with Seema Verma of things he’s supposed to read, and Indiana, whose area oversees 26% of Page 3 the federal budget. servative state that also is a strong pro-Trump state. Turn- The Hoosiers in the government are not the noisy out will decide it, but President Trump has done everything ones. Think Dan Coats, who oversees national intelli- he possibly can to boost it. In the critical Republican area gence. They are smart, honest people who work to make of northeast Indiana, the Democrat candidate for Congress things happen without stepping on the president’s credit has turned out to be very weak compared to Congress- when things go well. This is also true in foreign policy and man Jim Banks. She raised lots of money, but a big win by military issues, and largely with views that match those of Banks would likely back-off Democrats from repeating such pre-Vice President Pence. a mistake again. Donnelly has no ballot assistance here, at So here, in the days before Election Day, it is Don- any level, and the congressional candidate will likely be a ald Trump riding in to rescue Mike Braun and defeat the drag on his vote here. incumbent Sen. Joe Donnelly, in a state where Donnelly Furthermore, Sen. Lindsay Graham, a month ago, – if he wasn’t Joe Donnelly – could be losing by 30 points. was announced as speaker for the Allen County GOP Bean Braun has almost no effective grassroots enthusiasm. His Dinner that was being held five days before the election. ads veer wildly between awful, mediocre and sometimes It was immediately sold out. Now with President Trump is very good. He basically had two themes: I am a busi- nessman and I wear a blue shirt, not a coat and tie. Donnelly mostly tried to sell that he wasn’t some crazy liberal Democrat, that he tried to get people to get along and find some sort of a middle way, and that he actually would sometimes work with the presi- dent. He also constantly harped about Braun’s blue shirt, which appears to have persuaded few but which actually reminded them that Braun wasn’t a stuffy busi- nessman or politician. Some of his attacks on Braun’s specific business practices, however, did have an impact in spite of the blueness waste of time. The Mexico Joe and China Mike nonsense also just confused people. The attempt to turn the issue into about who was the biggest hypocrite failed as well. If they are such hypo- crites, why did the recent poll show Donnelly with 52- 41% favorable/unfavorable rating and Braun with 47- 39% favorable/unfavorable? That is a rather astounding rejection of the campaign approach of both sides. Did people find these ads so false that they assumed if each man was being called hypocritical by the other, then both must be pretty honest men? And why did the same poll that showed 52% viewing Donnelly favorably show him losing the race? It suggests that even though Donnelly is likable and viewed also appearing here Monday night, a few days after Gra- favorably as a senator, they want Republicans to con- ham. Media coverage of the Trump event has been non- trol the Senate. That also is what seems apparent when stop every day since the announcement. If these events, talking to voters. As Election Day gets closer, the polling plus Congressman Banks and down-ballot GOP strength becomes more accurate and seeming poll contradictions in all the region’s counties, don’t propel turnout, it is not can more easily be reconciled if supplemented by listening clear that anything would have.
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