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China Goes Global Comparative Presence in Global Fortune 12/29/2010 THE GLOBAL STRATEGY OF EMERGING China goes MULTINATIONALS FROM CHINA global The significant outward Mike W. Peng foreign direct investment Provost’s Distinguished Professor of Global Strategy (OFDI) made by Chinese University of Texas at Dallas multinati onal ent erpri ses www.mikepeng.com [email protected] (MNEs) MANAGEMENT RESEARCH FORUM Chinese University of Hong Kong (keynote @ Harvard December 2010 conference in Oct 2009) © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 1 2 Comparative presence in Global Fortune 500: Chinese firms Which of the following two cities has a larger are clearly growing number of Fortune Global 500 company 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 headquarters (in 2009)? Brazil 4 5 5 6 7 Russia 5 4 5 8 6 India 6 6 7 7 8 • BijiBeijing China 20 24 29 37 46 • New York BRIC 35 39 46 58 67 USA 170 162 153 140 139 EU 165 165 170 163 161 Japan 70 67 64 68 71 © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 3 © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 4 “Is China Inc. intent on buying the world? It sure looks that way” ANSWER (in 2009) But, REALLY? In the same BW • Beijing (30) article (07/27/2009): • New Yor k (19 in NYC + 3 more in su bur bs ) Total Chinese OFDI stock @ $170 B is only 1/30th of US OFDI (1% of world total) © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 5 © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 6 1 12/29/2010 The Beijing Media sensation Consensus continues (Ramo, 2004) (11/11-19/2010) versus The math simply doesn’t add up The Washington if 1% of global Consensus OFDI (allegedly broken can “buy up” thanks to the 2008 the world crisis) © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 7 © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 8 The “China on steroids” literature (a term coined by David Lampton— Jacques, 2009) Foreign Policy paper by Robert Fogel ($123 trillion—2010) . But, 10 yrs ago . © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 9 © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 10 The “China on the As recently as in verge of collapse” 2007, China was literature viewed as “so broken” (Chang, 2001) (thanks to toy recalls, Despite the endemic corruption, provocative title, this and spreading eco- book is not alone crisis) © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 11 © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 12 2 12/29/2010 My advice: Here is a better way to view the What happened to the complex relationship: “Japan on steroids” The ODD COUPLE literature (Japan as (the G2) who have to No. 1—1979)? work (sleep!) together Did Japan “take over” The most important America (circa 1989)? relationship today and tomorrow © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 13 © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 14 OUTLINE: A series of unique impact (1) Positive role of on research and practice the Chinese government • The previously underappreciated role played by • Home country government: A neglected topic: • Most research focuses on host country governments the domestic governments of MNEs • Positive role of the Chinese government • The challenge of going abroad in the absence of • “Go outside” / “go global” policy significantly superior managerial and technological • Supporting Chinese MNEs with real cash/loans resources • Interesting links between inbound FDI-friendly • The rapid adoption of (often high-profile) policies and outbound FDI acquisitions as a mode of entry • Guangdong generates 20% of Chinese OFDI © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 15 © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 16 Negative role of the Chinese government How does China research contribute to the global literature? • China invests more in British Virgin Islands ($6.6B in FDI stock) than in the UK ($0.95B)—7 times (!) • An emphasis on institutions as rules of the game • BVI, in turn, invests more in China than the UK • In this case, an emphasis on the role of domestic • BVI also beats the US as a recipient of Chinese governments at various (central and provincial) OFDI and an originator of Chinese IFDI levels • Why? An escape from harsh home country institutional environments © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 17 © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 18 3 12/29/2010 (2) Going abroad without superior Theoretical contribution: managerial and tech resources an institution-based view A strategy tripod (Peng et al., 2008 JIBS, 2009 AMP) • A puzzle under the current theory (derived from MNEs from developed economies) • Dragon multinationals: Mathews (2006, APJM) • An LLL framework (as opposed to OLI) • Linkage • Leverage • Learning © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 20 But progress is fast: Patents in 2008 • Which company filed the largest number of CASE: Huawei patents in the world? •US headquarters on • Not your usual suspects! Independence Pkwy, • It is Huawei (defendant of the Cisco vs Huawei case for Richardson, Texas alleggppy)ed intellectual property violation) • Cisco vs. Huawei Table 11.3. Top Ten Patent Applicant Companies Patent applicant Number of Patent applicant Number of (2003-2004) companies applications companies applications 1 Huawei (China) 1,737 6 Siemens (Germany) 1,089 2 Panasonic (Japan) 1,729 7 Nokia (Finland) 1,005 • If you lost a job @ 3 Philips (Netherlands) 1,551 8 LG Electronics (South Korea) 992 4 Toyota (Japan) 1,364 9 Ericsson (Sweden) 984 Nortel, find a new job 5 Robert Bosch (Germany) 1,273 10 Fujitsu (Japan) 983 [Source] Data extracted from World Intellectual Property Organization, 2009, Top 50 PCT applicants in 2008, Geneva: WIPO (www.wipo.int). The number of applications refers to international patent filings under WIPO’s Patent Cooperation @ Huawei! Treaty (PCT) during 2008. © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 21 © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 22 Tech resources are on the rise Managerial resources are still clearly lacking • In 2008, China filed the 6th largest number of • Not your average manager: China has plenty patents in the world (US/China difference in #: 9 • Internationally experienced, confident, and times) capable managers comfortable interacting with • In 2004, China the 14th (US/China difference: 27 locals: How many does China have? ti)imes) • They are all busy studying my books ☺ • In 2008, China had the highest annual growth in • A question from my Chinese EMBAs: What? We patent filing—tied with Korea—@ 12% (US can’t talk to our competitors? Why?! growth rate: -1%) • Regional distribution shows signs of weakness © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 23 © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 24 4 12/29/2010 Chinese OFDI Hong Kong (50%) My field research @ BVI (population 21,000) •Despite Asia (excluding Hong headlines about Kong) (13%) Africa, 50% Latin America & the goes to HK and Caribbean (19%) the rest of Asia Europe (6%) gets 13% • Africa only 6% Africa (6%) • Latin America gets 19% North America (4%) • But BVI + CI Oceania (2%) get 18% (!) © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 25 © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 26 (3) Rapid adoption of (often high- Acquisition profile) acquisitions as entry mode targets • Typical evolution of entry modes: Exports • Tech and financial JVs/alliances greenfields and/or acquisitions services firms in the • Most non-Chinese MNE s i n Chi na h ave f oll owed UiUnite dSd States this progression (they are the souces of learning and • Brands in Europe observation of Chinese MNEs) • Resources in Australia, • But, emerging Chinese MNEs: Buy, buy, buy Africa, and Latin America © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 27 © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 28 How the world sees China • Historical racism, modern prejudice • Chinese arrogance (+ ignorance) does not help • Chinese firms eye ing Playing hardball? US banking and oil Tires (2009) assets: No way! Google (2010) • Chinese bid for Rio Tinto: No, thanks! Currency (2010) © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 29 © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 30 5 12/29/2010 A challenge in post-acquisition integration Will Chinese OFDI-based M&As do better than global average? Unlikely! • Preacquisition: Overpayment in bidding • National pride: “Takeover nationalism” (Hope et al., 2009) • Managerial hubris and poor corporate governance • Pos tacqu is ition: I nt egrati on • Case study: TCL/Thomson • Large sample study: Chinese investors have very little confidence in listed companies’ OFDI/M&As (Chen & Young, 2010 APJM) © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 31 © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 32 The danger of protectionism between the G-2: Destroying global confidence How to play the cards? © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 33 © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 34 The Economist editor Trade and investment are more than added the word “mad” at the last minute economic, they serve to preserve world peace Trade wars are lose- • Buyers and sellers are not likely to kill each other lose (the mutual self- • When the US cut off oil sales to Japan (in protest of Japanese interest of the world ’s aggression in China) , Japan attacked Pearl Harbor largest importer and • The Dell theory of world peace (Thomas Friedman) exporter lies in • Chinese SOEs are not so scary after all, America harmonious trade now has plenty of GSEs (government-sponsored relationships) enterprises led by Government Motors [GM]) © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 35 © Mike Peng (www.mikepeng.com) 36 6 12/29/2010 Advice to policymakers Fortune (05/24/2010): • Nationalistic sentiments are understandable “In states like TX, SC, • Losing Chrysler and Anheuser-Busch hurts and NV, China is • But the Chinese are not going to take over the building factories “world,” much less to take over America and—lo and • Chinese OFDI is only 1% of the global total behold!—creating • Of which 4% comes to North America and 19% comes to South American jobs” America (but, remember, 18% goes to BVI and CI) • US MNEs have been doing their own M&As When Chinese deal • Chinese outbound FDI necessitates no additional, failed, HUMMER had specific
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