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Historical Monetary and Financial Statistics for Sweden, Vol 2

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Historical Monetary and Financial Statistics for Sweden, Vol 2 Historical Monetary and Financial Statistics for Sweden, vol 2 - Published by the Riksbanken and Ekerlids 9 contributors: Sölvi Blöndal, Jan Bohlin, Rodney Edvinsson, Klas Fregert, Roger Gustafsson, Tor Jacobson, Johan Söderberg, Daniel Waldenström, Anders Ögren. Editors: Rodney Edvinsson, Stockholms University Tor Jacobson, Riksbanken Daniel Waldenström, Uppsala University The project Historical Monetary and Financial Statistics for Sweden The project started in 2006. Inspiration from Historical Monetary Statistics for Norway Why the Riksbank? 1) Scientific task to reconstruct historical data. 2) Continuity 3) Deeper knowledge of its own history 4) History offers better predictions For different users and analytical purposes. A database was launched in 2008. first volume was published in 2010, focus on exchange rates, prices and wages. The books are written in English, to reach international audience. Historical Monetary and Financial Statistics for Sweden. Vol 1 (2010) 1. Introduction 6. Foreign exchange rates 2. Swedish monetary 1804–1914 standards in a historical 7. The Swedish krona, perspective 1913–2008 3. Swedish Payment 8. Swedish consumer Systems 995–1534 prices 1290–2008 4. The multiple currencies 9. Wages of unskilled of Sweden-Finland 1534– labourers, 1365-1864 1803 10. Wages of 5. Foreign exchange rates manufacturing workers, 1658–1803 1860–2007 Vol. 2 consists of eight chapters 1. Introduction 5. Fiscal statistics for 2. A price index for Sweden 1670–2011 residential property in 6. Swedish stock and Göteborg, 1875–2010 bond returns, 1856–2012 3. A price index for 7. Swedish Money residential property in Supply 1620–2012 Stockholm, 1875–2012 8. The Riksbank balance 4. The Gross Domestic sheet, 1668–2011 Product of Sweden within present borders 1620– 2012 New price index of residential property back to 1875 Two cities: Stockholm and Gothenburg. Based on primary material 1875-1957 14,000 observations in Stockholm 7,000 observations in Gothenburg Problem of historical comparisons: Different types of properties. Apartments for renting and houses. Rent regulations from 1940s. Market price different for apartment buildlings depending on ownership Holding quality constant over time. Hötorget 1880s. Large parts of today’s inner city countryside before Upturn in real property prices 1995-2010 unprecedented historically 200 180 160 Growth, per cent 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1875-1905 1918-1931 1955-1979 1985-1990 1995-2010 Previous ”long” upturns were followed by declines (in real prices) 60 50 Decline, per cent 40 30 20 10 0 1905-1918 1931-1955 1979-1985 1990-1995 2010-2012 Property prices Stockholm/Gothenburg (apartments up to 1957, houses after 1957) deflated by different nominal series 800 400 200 100 50 25 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 Deflated by GDP/capita Deflated by cost-of building index Deflated by cost of building per square metre Deflated by CPI Historical national accounts for Sweden, back to 1620 Swedish historical national accounts, among the most detailed in the world Still ongoing project Main revisions: 1) agriculture fluctuations 2) inclusion of home industries 3) better series of real estate Extension back to 1620 Primary material unique internationally, not used previously Trend per capita GDP growth (HP-filter with λ=1000) 4 3 2 1 0 -1 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 -2 Swedish GDP per capita relative to its trend (HP-filter, λ=100) Sharpest declines in GDP since 1850 10 9 Decline in GDP 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1940 1921 1917 1918 2009 1867 1931 1941 1932 1851 1993 1977 Government debt Reconstructing the historical evidence on central government debt, state expenditures and revenues. Wars were a notable factor for public indebtedness, also Second World War. Dramatic debt spikes in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s 1990s, all-time high of 94 per cent of GDP The worst fiscal crises in Sweden (increase debt/GDP 60 50 Increase in debt/GDP 40 30 20 10 0 1718-1724 1782-1792 1937-1945 1976-1985 1990-1996 Government debt as a share of nominal GDP, per cent Central government expenditures and revenues as shares of GDP Stock returns and interest rates Stock returns and interest rates in the Swedish economy from the 19th century until present day Market interest rate data collected for both long- term and short-term horizons Large institutional changes: The Stockholm Stock Exchange 1901, reorganised Few companies listed initially, banks 1907 Stagnant after the Kreuger crash Deregulations 1980s and 1990s. 1000.00 100.00 10.00 0.10 1.00 values,1901 Stock,bill bond and returnsindices, real 1901-10 1904-11 1907-12 1911-01 1914-02 1917-03 1920-04 1923-05 1926-06 1929-07 1932-08 1935-09 1938-10 – 1941-11 1944-12 2012 1948-01 1951-02 1954-03 1957-04 1960-05 1963-06 1966-07 1969-08 1972-09 1975-10 1978-11 1981-12 1985-01 1988-02 1991-03 1994-04 1997-05 2000-06 2003-07 2006-08 2009-09 2012-10 Yield on long-run bond long-run on Yield bill short-run on Yield index return Stock Stock price index Real Stock Return Index, crashes (more than 25 per cent decline) 80 70 60 Decline 50 40 30 20 10 0 Money supply and Riksbank balance sheets, two chapters Money supply back to 1620. Riksbank balance sheets back to 1668. Enable us to write the whole monetary history of the Riksbank The Riksbank, the world’s oldest central bank The Riksbank balance sheet Goals of the Riksbank: 1) Price stability, 2) lending 3) Security of the financial system 4) Business cycle stabilization 5) Seigniorage Financial markets Both influence Assets: 1) Reserves 2) Loans 3) Securities Liabilities 1) Deposits 2) Notes 3) Equity Monetary systems Before 1624, silver standard 1624-1776, copper and silver standard. First notes 1660s. The Riksbank 1668 – product of copper standard. De facto paper standard 1745- 1776. 1776-1873. Silver standard. De facto paper standard 1789-1803, and 1809-1834. Growth of private banks, use of private notes 1873-1914. Classical gold standard. 1904 – Riksbank monopoly of note issue. 1914-1971. Suspended gold standard, gold exchange standard, Bretton Woods. 1971- Fiat standard. Copper plate, weighing 20 kg, 1644 Notes, coins and coin tokens in mn daler kopparmynt 1660-1780 Stockholm banco account books damaged in fire. M3, M0, coins and GDP in current values (mn SEK) Future continuation or off-shots of the project? Update database on Riksbank’s homepage Property prices, back to the 1400s, more towns, different types of properties Bank statistics National wealth National income, wage and capital shares Revise GDP, SNA2008, back to Middle Ages Interest rates, bonds, private banks Money supply, monthly CPI, monthly International cooperations .
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