BRIDGE Linking Engin Ee Ring and Soci E T Y

Spring 2007

The BRIDGE Linking Engin ee ring and Soci e t y

Lessons from Hurricane Katrina John T. Christian Effects of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake and Indian Ocean Tsunami in Aceh Province Lloyd S. Cluff Engineering Research for Non-Engineered Buildings Melvyn Green Critical Infrastructure, Interdependencies, and Resilience T.D. O’Rourke Building a Resilient Organization Yossi Sheffi

Promoting the technological welfare of the nation by marshalling the knowledge and insights of eminent members of the engineering profession. The BRIDGE

National Academy of Engineering

Craig R. Barrett, Chair Wm. A. Wulf, President Maxine L. Savitz, Vice President W. Dale Compton, Home Secretary George Bugliarello, Foreign Secretary William L. Friend, Treasurer

Editor in Chief (interim): George Bugliarello Managing Editor: Carol R. Arenberg Production Assistant: Penelope Gibbs The Bridge (USPS 551-240) is published quarterly by the National Academy of Engineering, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Washington, DC 20418.

Periodicals postage paid at Washington, DC. Vol. 37, No. 1, Spring 2007 Postmaster: Send address changes to The Bridge, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Washington, DC 20418. Papers are presented in The Bridge on the basis of general interest and time- liness. They reflect the views of the authors and not necessarily the position of the National Academy of Engineering. The Bridge is printed on recycled paper. © 2007 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Erratum In “The Changing Face of Engineering Education” (pp. 5–13) in the summer 2006 issue, the line at the bottom of Figures 4, 5, and 6 should read “5 point scale, where 1 = no ability and 5 = high ability.”

A complete copy of The Bridge is available in PDF format at http://www.nae.edu/TheBridge. Some of the articles in this issue are also available as HTML documents and may contain links to related sources of information, multimedia files, or other content. The Volume 37, Number 1 • Spring 2007 BRIDGE Linking Engin ee ring and Soci e t y

Editor’s Note 3 Engineering for the Threat of Natural Disasters William H. Hooke

Features 5 Lessons from Hurricane Katrina John T. Christian Geotechnical conditions and design flaws both contributed to the failure of the levees in New Orleans. 12 Effects of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake and Indian Ocean Tsunami in Aceh Province Lloyd S. Cluff This eyewitness assessment of damage from the earthquake and tsunami yields lessons for engineers. 17 Engineering Research for Non-Engineered Buildings Melvyn Green More information on constructing simple, seismically safe buildings could go a long way toward reducing fatalities. 22 Critical Infrastructure, Interdependencies, and Resilience T.D. O’Rourke Resilient physical and social systems must be robust, redundant, resourceful, and capable of rapid response. 30 Building a Resilient Organization Yossi Sheffi Governments must understand the resiliency and risk management strategies of private-sector enterprises.

NAE News and Notes 37 Class of 2007 Elected 40 NAE Newsmakers 42 NAE Member Gives Keynote Address at International Conference on Women in Science, Technology, and Engineering 43 2006 Japan-America Frontiers of Engineering Symposium 45 Report of the Foreign Secretary 46 Call for Awards Nominations 46 Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Fellows

(continued on next page) The BRIDGE

48 Engineer Girl! Website Hosts Outreach to Girl Scouts 48 NAE to Honor President Wm. A. Wulf with Philanthropic Initiative 49 Contributors List 56 Calendar of Meetings and Events 56 In Memoriam

58 Publications of Interest

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self- The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific Acad­my of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the author- to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility ­ity of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional char- has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on ter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. National Academy of Sciences. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, The National Research Council was organized by the National under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its adminis- science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering tration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal gov- accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the ernment. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engi- Council has become the principal operating agency of both the neering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages edu- National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engi- cation and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of neering in providing services to the government, the public, and the engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered of Engineering. jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respec- tively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org Fall 2006  Editor’s Note

Engineering for the external peer reviews of both designs and construction, Threat of Natural and more rigorous analysis of what went wrong with Disasters the evacuations. Engineers are in the business Lloyd Cluff provides a crisp summary of the Decem- of improving public health ber 26, 2004, tsunami and its aftermath, based largely and safety, facilitating eco- on his own on-site survey and analysis. In the midst of nomic growth, protecting the general devastation, he found numerous examples the environment and eco- of sound engineering and construction that withstood systems, and providing for both the earthquake and the tsunami waves. national security. And, they Melvyn Green surveys types of owner-built struc- William H. Hooke is director of attempt to accomplish all of tures in seismic areas. As he points out, improving building performance of existing owner-built buildings the Policy Program, American this on a planet that does its constructed with site-found materials would greatly Meteorological Society. business through extreme events. The earthquakes we reduce earthquake fatalities and damage. He suggests experience are crustal manifestations of Earth’s conti- that improvements will require that nations work nental drift. “Climate” is really the aggregate of pat- cooperatively to provide information to home owners terns and statistics of extremes of heat and cold, flood and builders. and drought. What we call climate variability, or cli- Because disasters are the results of social decisions, mate change, is really a change in those patterns. engineering strategies must be integrated with social- Disasters occur at the intersection between natural science and natural-science strategies. In addition, extremes and human populations and the built environ- political leaders, NGOs, civic leaders, and many others ment. Thus they are social constructs, not the results of must be involved in disaster preparedness and response. natural hazards alone. Disasters are about centuries of The paper by Tom O’Rourke, which is based on a pre- decisions—especially about where and how to build— sentation given at a colloquium on infrastructure and with an overlay of cultural and ethnic preferences, disaster-resilient communities, explains how resiliency demographics, and economic decisions for developing fits into the continuum of responses and its implications and allocating wealth. Thus they are not solely a matter for public policy. of emergency response. As Hurricane Katrina demonstrated, engineering for NAE recently sponsored a symposium on engineer- the threat of natural disasters is not a matter for the ing for the threat of natural disasters. Engineering for public sector alone (whether at the local, state, or fed- the threat of natural disasters is a broad topic, and the eral level). The private sector also plays a pivotal role. papers in this issue cannot possibly do the topic full jus- Private enterprise is a victim, an emergency responder, tice. However, they can stimulate discussion and ideas a mitigation planner, and a vector for propagating the for the future. The first three articles, which are based effects of a disaster far beyond the area directly impacted. on presentations given at the symposium, draw lessons The private sector also operates much of the nation’s from three recent natural disasters: Hurricane Katrina critical infrastructure—communications, electrical and (by John Christian), the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 gas utilities, certain elements of water and transpor- (by Lloyd Cluff), and the earthquake in Pakistan in tation systems, and soft infrastructure, such as health 2005 (by Melvyn Green). care and financial facilities. In the final paper, Yossi In John Christian’s review of engineering studies Sheffi defines the characteristics of disaster-resilient related to Katrina, he describes several plausible expla- enterprises. He argues that a comprehensive strategy nations for levee failures in New Orleans. He con- for disaster preparedness must bring to bear the assets cludes that a number of mechanisms were at work and and issues of the private sector. that it is impossible to place the blame on any one of Finally, because disasters are social constructs that them. He calls for better engineering in the future, mutate in response to social change—population The  BRIDGE increases and urbanization, the globalization of business, Other examples are the New Madrid earthquakes and advances in science and technology—engineers are of 1812 and the threat from space weather. The New faced with a moving target. Consider hurricanes. A Madrid earthquakes of 1812, the strongest this nation century ago, they exacted a huge toll in lives because has ever experienced, discommoded a relative handful they were difficult to detect prior to landfall. Advances of fur traders and villages of indigenous peoples. Today, in monitoring and forecasting, beginning with ship- much of the natural gas infrastructure that supports the borne radio, changed that. A century ago, disasters Northeast passes through that region. Space weather were measured in fatalities and damaged and destroyed represents another entirely new vulnerability that did structures. However, urbanization, made possible by not exist prior to the invention of the telegraph and the development of critical infrastructure—communi- our dependence on electrical energy and regional power cations, electrical power, gas, sewage, transportation, grids, long pipelines, and spaced-based technologies, and water—has transformed the challenge. Hurricane such as weather monitoring, telecommunications, GPS, disasters today are counted not only in fatalities and and transpolar flights. loss of physical property, but also in economic disrup- The engineering community holds the keys to the tion. Hurricane Katrina, for example, triggered a spike future—which lies somewhere on a spectrum between a in local—and national—gasoline prices. If the port of world in which natural hazards are a diminishing threat New Orleans had been compromised, countries world- and a darker world in which natural extremes and disas- wide would have experienced disruptions in shipments ters will seal the human fate. of U.S. grain. Geotechnical conditions and design flaws both contributed to the failure of the levees in New Orleans.

Lessons from Hurricane Katrina

John T. Christian

The social impacts of Hurricane Katrina have been covered extensively in the media. As of this writing (December 2006), at least four hardcover books on the subject have been published in addition to numerous news­ paper articles and television programs. The effects of the storm on human life, emergency response, preparedness, and the future of New Orleans and the neighboring regions have properly been the principal focus of much John T. Christian is a consulting engi- of this coverage, but some attention has also been paid to the engineering neer from Waban, Massachusetts, aspects of the disaster—what happened, why it happened the way it did, and an NAE member. This paper whether the design and construction of the hurricane protection system were adequate, and what should be done in the future. is based on a presentation by the The volume of material just on the engineering aspects of the disaster is author at the NAE Annual Meeting overwhelming. At least five boards of experts are reviewing the engineer- in October 2006. ing problems, and the “draft final” report of one of them, the Interagency Performance Evaluation Task Force (IPET), runs to more than 6,000 pages. This paper provides a general overview of the results of these studies to date and then describes in more detail some issues of geotechnical engineering and the failure of the levees.1

1 For more information on IPET, see https://ipet.wes.army.mil/ and http://www.usace.army.mil/; http://www.asce.org. Information about the University of California, Berkeley, PEER Institute is available online at: http://peer.berkeley.edu/PEERCenter/about.html; the Louisiana State Univer- sity Department of Civil Engineering is available online at: http://www.cee.lsu.edu/eng/ceeweb. nsf/index. For information on the joint NAE/NRC New Orleans Regional Hurricane Protection Proj- ects, see http://www8.nationalacademies.org/cp/projectview.aspx?key=335. The New Orleans Times-Picayune is available online at http://www.timespicayune.com. The  BRIDGE

Boards of Experts area. The Mississippi River flows generally from north IPET (Interagency Performance Evaluation Task to south, but it takes a sharp turn to the east in north- Force) was originally organized by the U.S. Army Corps ern Louisiana, passes through Baton Rouge and New of Engineers (USACE) and was then expanded to Orleans, and disgorges into the Gulf of Mexico at a con- include participation by other government agencies and siderable distance east of the general north-south trend independent consultants. Prof. L.E. Link of the Uni- of the river. Over the last several thousand years, the versity of Maryland, formerly head of the USACE delta has moved from place to place. It has been in Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, its present location only for about the last 1,000 years. Hanover, New Hampshire, chairs IPET. Shortly after Left to its own devices, the river would revert to a more the hurricane, the American Society of Civil Engineers direct north-south pattern of flow, following the Atcha- (ASCE) also established a working group to review falaya River and discharging near the current location engineering issues associated with the hurricane. This of Morgan City. group has developed a close working relationship with Because of the economic importance of Baton Rouge, IPET and reviews IPET’s work. Dr. David E. Daniel, Morgan City, and New Orleans, a system of levees has president of the University of Texas at Dallas and a been constructed over the years to keep the river in its member of the National Academy of Engineering present bed, as well as to control its frequent flooding. (NAE), chairs this committee. To complicate matters further, flooding can result, not In response to a request from the Assistant Secretary only from large spring flows in the Mississippi River, but of the Army for Civil Works, NAE and the National also from storms that blow in from the Gulf of Mexico. Research Council (NRC) appointed an Engineering Thus the designers and operators of a flood-control sys- Review Committee (ERC) to review IPET’s reports. Dr. tem for New Orleans are presented with complicated G. Wayne Clough, president of the Georgia Institute of design conditions. Technology and a member of NAE, chairs this commit- At New Orleans, the river flows essentially west to tee. The author is one of the 16 committee members. east (Figure 1). The city itself lies between the river to The National Science Foundation (NSF) funded a the south and Lake Pontchartrain to the north. The study by the PEER Institute at the University of Califor- oldest parts of the city, including the French Quarter, nia, Berkeley, on the behav- ior of the levee systems. Researchers from Berkeley and many other institutions participated in studies led by Berkeley professors Ray- mond B. Seed and Robert Bea (NAE). In addition, the geological engineering staff of the Department of Civil Engineering at Loui- siana State University con- ducted its own evaluation of the design and performance of the levee systems. Pro- fessor Ivor van Heeren led the study.

What Happened The Setting of New Orleans We begin with a brief look at the geologic circum- FIGURE 1 Map of New Orleans showing features important for understanding the effects of Hurricane Katrina. Adapted from stances of the New Orleans IPET, 2006. Spring 2007 

Garden District, Audubon Park, both Tulane and Loyola long the storm remains over an area, the location of Universities, and the older residential sections, lie just the center of the storm relative to the facilities of inter- north of the river along the high ground that forms est, or the geometry of the region affected by the storm. the natural embankment of the river. About midway Although the scale is useful as a shorthand categoriza- between the river and the lake is a gentle rise, called the tion of the severity of a storm, it does not provide a Gentilly Ridge, that interrupts the general trend of fall- complete description and is certainly not adequate by ing elevation as one moves toward the low-lying lake. itself for engineering design. The region bounded by the ridge and the high ground near the river is thus a bowl, in which rainwater collects during heavy storms. Early in the twentieth century, pumping stations were The tops of levees may built along the ridge to remove floodwater from the be lower than the water basin. As the city expanded north beyond the ridge, the newly inhabited region north of the ridge was exposed levels they are supposed to flooding from the lake. Instead of building additional pumping capacity at the lakeshore, the city connected to defend against. the existing pumping stations to the lake via drainage canals. The city also expanded to the east, particularly into the areas known as New Orleans East and the Lower The Flooding Ninth Ward. Almost all of these areas lie below sea level Three phenomena contributed to the flooding in New and must be protected by a system of levees. Orleans. First, the hurricane brought a large amount of Southern Louisiana has been built up out of sediments rain. Precisely how much of the flooding was due simply transported from the interior of the continent down the to rainfall is still the subject of controversy, but it appears Mississippi River. Tens of thousands of feet of these soft that something like one-third to one-half of the water sediments overlie crystalline bedrock. There is a general that wound up in some of the bowls in New Orleans pattern of subsidence, complicated by additional settle- arrived directly from the heavens. Second, some of ment whenever a load, such as a levee, is placed on the the levees were overtopped. That is, the level of water sediments. Thus the city itself and individual structures in the Gulf, Lake Pontchartrain, and other waterways settle by different amounts, so the tops of levees may around the city simply rose higher than the height of actually be lower than the water levels they are supposed the levees, and the excess flowed over them. In many to defend against. Furthermore, because of the general cases the overflow eroded the levee materials, destroy- subsidence, it is difficult to establish reliable benchmarks ing those sections of levee in the process. Third, some against which to measure the locations of levees. sections of levees or canals failed before the water level reached an overtopping level, and the horizontal com- Katrina’s Track ponent of the flow through the breaches added to the Hurricane Katrina formed in the Atlantic Ocean damage caused by the flooding. Spectacular examples in August 2005, moved west across southern Florida include the failures of the 17th Street Canal, the Lon- and into the Gulf of Mexico, then turned north. On don Avenue Canal, and the Inter-Harbor Navigation August 29, the storm struck the mainland just east of Canal. These phenomena combined to create flooding New Orleans, very close to the border between Louisi- of 8 to 15 feet in the Lakeview section just south of Lake ana and Mississippi. When the center of the storm was Pontchartrain, 10 to 13 feet in New Orleans East, and in the Gulf south of New Orleans, its intensity reached 12 to 15 feet in the Lower Ninth Ward. Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. By the time the Some levees were overtopped either because they storm reached the mainland, its intensity had dropped were built to withstand a smaller storm than the one to Category 3, so it is not strictly correct to say that New that actually occurred, they had settled below their Orleans was struck by a Category 5 hurricane. design elevations, the consequences of the design storm The Saffir-Simpson scale is based primarily on one- had not been adequately estimated, or a combination minute average wind velocity. It does not take into of these effects. The levees that failed even before they account rainfall, the storm’s speed and direction, how were overtopped could not withstand even the water The  BRIDGE levels for which they were designed. All of this suggests have been abandoned or modified at the last minute as major deficiencies in the procedures for the design and Katrina approached. The scenes of destroyed houses, construction of the levee system around New Orleans. drowned people, evacuees huddled in the Superdome amidst crime and filth, and so on are too familiar to Emergency Reaction require elaboration here. These conditions led to loud It has become commonplace to say that emergency and bitter recriminations among government officials response and reconstruction efforts have been dysfunc- and private relief agencies at all levels. As this article is tional at all levels of government—city, state, and fed- being written, the news still tells of thousands of unused eral. Douglas Brinkley, in his book The Great Deluge FEMA trailers, uncertainties about reconstruction in (2006), observes that some agencies performed well. New Orleans, questions about the way contracts for For example, the local Society for the Prevention of reconstruction were let, and continuing chaos in New Cruelty to Animals had a policy that, upon learning of Orleans’ attempts to recover from the disaster. the approach of a Category 3 or greater storm, it would So far, other than numerous reports in the press, remove the strays under its protection to safety in other no independent public examination has been done of cities. The SPCA did precisely that and weathered the what worked and what went wrong in the recovery and storm with no loss of the animals under its care. reconstruction effort. However, the engineering aspects of design, construction, and operation of the levee sys- tem have been reviewed.

Organizations empowered Taskforce Guardian As an interim measure, USACE set up Taskforce to protect humans Guardian, whose mission was to restore the hurricane performed poorly, but not protection system to a satisfactory condition in antici- pation of the 2006 hurricane season. The goal was to for want of warning. repair and upgrade the system as much as possible in the time available. Some additional pumping stations and gates were Unfortunately, the organizations empowered to pro- built at the lakeside entrances to the drainage canals, tect human beings did not do as well, but not for want and erodable materials in the levees were replaced. of warning. There is a large pre-Katrina literature on USACE officers stated explicitly that the system would the exposure of New Orleans to flooding both from not stand up to a Category 5 hurricane but should resist hurricanes and from the Mississippi River. Indeed, the more modest events that could be expected during Brinkley points out that, immediately after its founda- the hurricane season. The construction of an ultimate tion in 1718, the city was struck by a hurricane, and robust system would have to wait for the completion of the original settlers came close to abandoning the site. the IPET studies and the development of appropriate From June 23 to 27, 2002, the New Orleans Times- design criteria. The task force completed its work very Picayune ran a series of articles entitled “Washing Away” shortly after the due date of June 1, 2006. In the actual that described the damage that could be expected if a event, no hurricanes struck the mainland in 2006. major hurricane struck the city. In July 2004, barely more than a year before Katrina, the Federal Emergency Engineering Review of the Disaster Management Administration (FEMA) conducted a Although the five engineering review bodies oper- multi-agency exercise in emergency planning for the ated independently, all of them reacted to IPET’s work, effects of a hypothetical Hurricane Pam. The litera­ the largest and best funded of the study groups. Vol- ture on hazards to New Orleans is written in clear, umes 2 through 7 of the IPET “draft final” report divide nontechnical, forceful prose, and no thoughtful person the results into six broad sections: Geodetic Vertical should have been surprised by the severity of the storm’s and Water Level Datums; The Hurricane Protection effects or the need for emergency planning. System; The Storm; The Performance of the Levees Although the Hurricane Pam exercise led to the and Floodwalls; The Performance of Interior Drainage development of some emergency plans, they seem to and Pumping; The Consequences; and Engineering and Spring 2007 

Operational Risk and Reliability Analyses. The report of levees and to become positioned near the east- is more than 6,000 pages long so far, and the last sec- ern entrance to Lake Pontchartrain, which generated tion on risk and reliability has not yet appeared. The surges of water that overtopped the eastern levees and NAE/NRC team and the ASCE team both organized drove water up the drainage canals. This part of IPET’s their comments to conform to the IPET pattern. work has shown that the behavior of hurricanes can be In reviewing a study of this sort, it is important to keep hind-cast or predicted with modern finite-element and in mind that critiques may address the quality of the finite-difference methods and that they should be used design and construction for facilities in place at the time in future to develop design loadings. of the hurricane or the adequacy of the post-hurricane investigations described in the report. For example, one might find that the wind and water levels used for the design calculations were not adequate but that the hind- Two different benchmarks casting calculations of the hurricane’s effects described in the report are excellent. The NAE/NRC team and were used in creating the the ASCE team had similar reactions, with some minor levee system. differences of detail. The detailed study of the geodetic levels revealed considerable room for confusion and error. Two differ- ent benchmark levels were used in creating the levee Evaluating the performance of the protection systems system. In some cases, the water levels were expressed involved detailed studies of the mechanics of various against one benchmark and the height of the levees failures. IPET dealt primarily with the failures of the against another. Furthermore, there seemed to be no 17th Street Canal and the London Avenue Canal, but consistent effort to monitor subsidence of the levee sys- some attention was focused on other failures as well. tem or its components. The focus was on building the These back-analyses of levee failures were difficult levees to the “authorized” elevations without consider- because water rushing through the breaches eroded ing whether the corresponding water elevations were much of the evidence, making it nearly impossible to measured from the same base or whether subsequent determine the precise conditions at the time of failure. settlement and subsidence might make the authorized The IPET group used conventional limit-equilibrium levels irrelevant. analyses with circular failure surfaces, finite-element All of the review teams found that the hurricane pro- simulations, and centrifuge simulations to study the tection system was a system in name only. Planning and levee failures (Figures 2 and 3). Other groups relied system-wide design were confused by political and short- primarily on limit-equilibrium analyses. term economic considerations over a period of several The soil profile differs from location to location, but decades. In such an environment, it is almost impossible the situation at the 17th Street Canal failure is typi- to plan rationally, and a number of basic questions were cal. The levees, which run north-south along the sides not addressed. For example, detailed design was based on of the canal, are composed of clayey soils resting on a the parameters of a “standard project hurricane” (SPH), layer of peat (called marsh material in the IPET report), which changed over the years as the city experienced which in turn lies over lacustrine clay and then a sandy more hurricanes. Although the annual risk represented beach deposit. To attain the desired level of protec- by the SPH was never clear, it was invoked in congres- tion, “I-walls” (steel-sheet piling or reinforced-concrete sional authorizing legislation. Similarly, little effort was panels) extending several feet above the levee embank- made to establish target factors or margins of safety that ments were embedded in the levees. corresponded to actual risks. An essential ingredient in stability analysis is the The IPET study included an extensive computerized description of soil strength. The general consensus is calculation to recover the history of Hurricane Katrina, that the design of the levees was not based on conserva- which yielded detailed descriptions of the wind veloci- tive estimates of soil strength. The original geotechnical ties and water elevations throughout the storm. These reports showed very wide scatter in the measured values calculations confirmed that the particular track taken of shear strength. This scatter, rather than indicating by the storm caused it to pass near the eastern system variability of the soil, is more likely to reflect errors in The 10 BRIDGE

different mechanisms of failure. Centrifuge tests, car- ried out at Rensselaer Poly- technic Institute and the USACE Engineer Research and Development Center, demonstrated failure along a nearly horizontal plane near the top of the lacus- trine clay. In these tests, the I-wall moved downstream as a result of the pressure FIGURE 2 Failure of model in a centrifuge test run at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. The original figure has been reversed to of rising water in the canal show the failure occurring from left to right to conform to Figure 3. Note the relative displacement of the top layer of markers and opened a gap between in the lower clay layer to the left of the sheeting. SOURCE: IPET Draft Final Report. the wall and the upstream portion of the levee embank- ment. Water flowing into that gap then applied the full hydrostatic head to the wall. The IPET limit- equilibrium analyses could not recapture failure condi- tions until they too assumed the existence of the gap and upstream water levels higher than those observed in the field during the storm. The Berkeley PEER group concluded that the failure had not occurred through the clay but had followed a weak seam in the peat. Other groups postulated variations on these failure FIGURE 3 Results for critical circular failure surface from an IPET limit-equilibrium stability analysis showing a gap between the mechanisms. wall and the upstream embankment. SOURCE: IPET Draft Final Report. In summary, examina- tions of the levee failures drilling, sampling, and testing procedures. More modern have revealed several plausible failure mechanisms, investigations using piezocones yielded much less scatter. including a weaker than anticipated clay layer, a soft zone The original designers not only failed to use conservative in the marsh material, the effects of a “crack” between soil strengths for the analyses, but also failed to account the wall and the upstream part of the embankment, adequately for the fact that the soil under the toe of an differential settlement of the levees and neighboring embankment should be weaker than the soil under the structures, seepage forces, and even the consequences crest, where the weight of the embankment compresses of toppled trees pulling up their roots. it to a greater density. All of these explanations are at least plausible, but it All of the investigations showed that the levees were is hard to identify the actual culprit. Different effects either unstable or marginally stable. This is not sur- may be dominant at different sections of a levee, and prising because all of the analysts knew that the levees more than one effect may have contributed to several had in fact failed. However, different groups arrived at failures. Some sections may have held, not because they Spring 2007 11

were safe but because another section of the levee failed Hurricane Katrina demonstrates again that indepen- first and relieved the load. In any case, it is clear that dent peer review of the design, construction, and the design of many of the levees was, at best, marginal operation of critical infrastructure systems should be and that the procedures for designing and building levee required. Current indications are that USACE is systems need to be improved. Design criteria, such as adopting this philosophy. safety factors, must be based rationally on the conse- Emergency response and reconstruction efforts after quences and probabilities of failure and not simply on Katrina were poorly organized, even dysfunctional. past practice. Recovery efforts continue to be plagued by confusion, disorganization, and recriminations. Unfortunately, Conclusions for the Future these aspects of Hurricane Katrina have received much All five review panels agree in one way or another less systematic attention than the engineering issues. that the engineering of the levee system was not ade- There is no “Interagency Response and Recovery quate. The procedures for designing and constructing Evaluation Task Force” corresponding to IPET. Ade- hurricane protection systems will have to be improved, quate responses to future disasters will require that the and the designing organizations must upgrade their failures of emergency procedures and recovery efforts engineering capabilities. The levees must be seen not for Hurricane Katrina be subjected to the same kind of as a system to protect real estate but as a set of dams to independent, public examination as the engineering protect people. performance. There must be independent peer reviews of future designs and construction. The Board of Inquiry into References the 1928 failure of the Saint Francis Dam concluded Brinkley, D. 2006. The Great Deluge. New York: Harper- that no dam whose failure could cause such a large Collins Publishers. loss of life should be based on the judgment of one USACE (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers). 2006. Performance man and that independent review boards should be Evaluation of the New Orleans and Southeastern Louisiana required for all dams in California. Almost identi- Hurricane Protection System. Report of the Interagency cal language can be found in the report of the fed- Performance Evaluation Task Force. Washington, D.C.: eral review panel for the 1977 failure of Teton Dam. USACE. This eyewitness assessment of damage from the earthquake and tsunami yields lessons for engineers.

Effects of the 2004 Sumatra- Andaman Earthquake and Indian Ocean Tsunami in Aceh Province

Lloyd S. Cluff

On December 26, 2004, at 07:58:50 local time, a powerful earthquake,

moment magnitude (MW) 9.2, occurred in the Indian Ocean. The Sumatra- Andaman earthquake was one of the three largest earthquakes ever recorded. The fault rupture propagated 1,300 to 1,600 kilometers northwest for about 10 minutes along the boundary between the Indo-Australian plate and the Eurasian plate, from northwestern Sumatra to the Nicobar Islands and to the Lloyd S. Cluff is director of geo­ Andaman Islands. The hypocenter, the point where the fault rupture origin­ sciences and earthquake risk man- ated, was 10 kilometers deep. The faulting spread updip and downdip from 18 to agement, Pacific Gas and Electric 25 meters on a low-angle thrust fault plane dipping about 10 degrees north- east. The Indo-Australian plate moved northeast relative to the Eurasian Company, and an NAE member. plate. Several excellent papers have been written on the tectonics of the earthquake (e.g., Lay et al., 2005), and the seismological, geologic, and geo- detic aspects have been comprehensively described by Kanamori (2006) and Hudnut (2006). The resulting tsunami affected 12 nations around the Indian Ocean, with Indonesia suffering the greatest damage. In Aceh, the northern province of Sumatra, the United Nations (UN) Field Office reported approximately 131,000 people confirmed dead and 37,000 missing. With more than 80,000 houses sustaining major damage or collapse, the UN estimated that more than 500,000 people were displaced from their homes in Sumatra alone. In addition to the massive damage to housing, utilities, roads, and bridges, Spring 2007 13

Tsunami Damage The fault rupture uplifted the ocean floor, releasing the most destructive series of tsunami waves in recorded history. The waves spread throughout the Indian Ocean, causing damage in the coastal communities of 12 coun- tries. By far, the most damaging effects were sustained by Aceh Province, where three devastating waves struck the western shore within about 30 minutes. The tsunami waves ranged from 4 to 39 meters high and destroyed more than 250 coastal communities. In the low-lying areas of western coastal Sumatra, including the city of Banda Aceh, the tsunami waves extended inland as far as 5 kilometers, affecting a large FIGURE 1 Aerial view of western Aceh Province near Calang showing the effects portion of the population of 300,000. The western part of tectonic subsidence. of the city has nearly flat topography traversed by rivers and drainage channels. In these areas, the maximum the disaster significantly disrupted the social fabric and wave-flow height was 4 to 8 meters. In hilly areas south government of the affected communities. of Banda Aceh, the wave-flow height was significantly greater, due to the topography. Shaking Damage Residential neighborhoods and fishing villages in The epicenter of the earthquake was about 250 kilo- coastal areas were entirely devastated, and houses were meters off the west coast of Aceh Province. Strong to swept inland or out to sea. The traditional construc- violent shaking in Aceh Province reportedly lasted five tion that had resisted shaking damage could not resist to six minutes. Banda Aceh was the only major city that the tsunami forces and most were obliterated. Figure 2 experienced earthquake-shaking damage. One- to two- shows what was left of most houses—mostly the con- story, traditional, concrete-frame and wood-frame build- crete floor slabs. The tsunami waves left extensive piles ings survived well and were largely undamaged by the of timber and the remains of buildings. strong ground shaking. However, because the earthquake Most well designed and well constructed buildings and occurred a significant distance offshore, the resulting industrial facilities that had withstood the earthquake long-period ground motions caused serious damage to, or the collapse of, buildings more than three stories high.

Fault Deformation A compounding problem was tectonic subsidence resulting in 20 to 100 cen- timeters of down-warping of the Earth’s crust beneath the Aceh region. The subsid- ence extends for at least 280 kilometers along the entire northwestern Aceh coast (Figure 1). This submer- gence thwarted rescue efforts and has hindered the resto- ration of roads, bridges, and FIGURE 2 Aerial view of western Banda Aceh showing an area devastated by tsunami waves. Only concrete floor slabs of most utility distribution systems. houses remain. The 14 BRIDGE

administrative buildings and machine shops were smashed by waves carry- ing nearly empty large oil- storage tanks. The impact of the waves caused non- structural damage to some of the buildings. For example, metal siding was stripped from the steel-frame build- ings up to the height of the waves (Figure 4). Figure 5 shows a typi- cal mosque south of Banda Aceh, which was impacted by 5-meter-high tsunami waves. Inspection revealed that the quality of construc- FIGURE 3 Aerial view of the La Farge Cement Plant. When the tsunami waves arrived, empty fuel tanks, indicated on the tion and of the concrete in bottom left of the photo, became buoyant and destroyed small buildings to the right. The empty tanks also collided with the most mosques was excel- steel-reinforced cement silos but glanced off without damaging them. lent. Most have steel- reinforced concrete frames shaking also withstood the tsunami waves and suffered as load-resisting systems, along with domes and open only minor damage. For example, the La Farge Cement arches that allowed tsunami waves to traverse the space Plant (Figure 3), a well designed and well constructed without causing serious damage. steel-frame series of industrial structures about 20 kilo- The low-lying topography of Banda Aceh and sur- meters southwest of Banda Aceh, did not experience rounding areas and the height of the water resulted in structural damage from the strong shaking and was debris being swept in and out by the three successive not damaged by the tsunami waves, which, as docu- destructive tsunami waves. This caused large, heavy mented by stadia-rod, reached a wave-flow height projectiles, such as cars, trucks, and fishing boats, to of 38.9 meters nearby. Several one- and two-story be swept in and out, each time impacting previously undamaged facilities. Many small buildings were structurally damaged by tsunami waves carrying float- ing debris.

FIGURE 4 The La Farge Cement Plant was a well designed steel-framed structure anchored to rock. The metal siding was stripped from the buildings up to the wave-flow height of ~35 meters. FIGURE 5 Intact mosque near Banda Aceh. Spring 2007 15

action. Although the power plant was undamaged, it left a path of destruction of houses and commercial buildings as it charged inland. PT PLN plant operators informed us that neither the intense shaking nor the 3 kilometer transport of the barge-station was the rea- son the plant was not operating; the main problem was lack of demand. PT PLN reported that electric power was restored to most emergency-response customers in Banda Aceh within three days and to the remaining customers within about two weeks. PT PLN reported that the electric system generally FIGURE 6 Miracle boat that saved the lives of 53 people in Banda Aceh. was not affected by earthquake shaking, except for the newly built headquarters building, which was more than A large number of fishing boats were docked at the three stories high and had to be abandoned. The tsu- coastal and river locations that traverse the city. Fish- nami did not affect the 150-kV substation or the inland ing boats were torn from their moorings and cast inland diesel-generating power stations. A small (1 megawatt) during the tsunami. One boat that was permanently diesel-powered plant was destroyed at Calang, directly docked on the second story of a house (Figure 6) saved on the coast about halfway between Banda Aceh and 52 people, who were able to climb through the roof- Meulaboh. The Meulaboh Lamno diesel plant did not hatch and take shelter there; inside, they found a experience significant damage. The 150-kV transmis- stranded security person in the captain’s quarters. sion line and associated substations transmitting power from power plants to the east functioned normally dur- Electric Power ing and after the earthquake and tsunami. In fact, the Most well designed and well constructed electric electric power in western Aceh Province did not shut power plants in Aceh Province did not experience down. Some PT PLN emergency-response workers were structural damage from the earthquake or tsunami. The electrocuted when they attempted to restore electricity electric generating facilities experienced light damage to emergency facilities because they had assumed the to the generating capacity and no damage to the trans- tsunami had tripped the power supply. mission network. However, there was substantial dam- age to the distribution network in the affected area. Gas and Liquid Fuel Facilities Most above-ground distribution systems were seriously The state-owned Pertamina petroleum company suf- damaged or destroyed by the tsunami. Damage to the fered substantial damage to fuel depots, where storage power supply was concentrated in western Aceh Prov- facilities were damaged and some fuel was lost, mostly ince, along low-lying areas in Banda Aceh and toward on the west coast of Aceh Province, particularly in the south along the west coast to just beyond Meula- Banda Aceh and south to Meulaboh. The deep-water boh. The main damage was to the power distribution port at Kreung Raya, the petroleum storage and distri- networks (small substations and hollow-core distribu- bution facility, lost half of its above-ground piping and tion poles). About 170,000 customers were affected by 3 of 12 liquid fuel (diesel, high-octane gas, oil, and kero- loss of power in Banda Aceh and along the low-lying sene) storage tanks. None of the tanks was anchored to coastal plain to Meulaboh. its foundations, and the three that were swept away by Indonesia’s public electric supply is provided by PT tsunami waves were only partially full. The nine full PLN, the state-owned electric company. Banda Aceh’s storage tanks were not affected. As with the electric electric power comes from the Aceh regional electric system, most above-ground distribution systems were grid and, in central Banda Aceh, the Luengbata diesel- seriously damaged or destroyed by the tsunami. generation plant (50-megawatt, 11 units), which reported damage only to some generation transformers. Roads and Bridges An 11-megawatt diesel-generating station, mounted Roads and bridges were devastated by the force of on a barge offshore, was swept inland more than 3 kilo­ the tsunami waves. Many bridges were swept off their meters from the harbor in Banda Aceh by tsunami wave supports, and connecting earth embankments were The 16 BRIDGE significantly scoured, dis- abling the transportation network for hundreds of kilometers along the west coast of Aceh Province. Hundreds of bridges were picked up and swept inland by the tsunami waves, some more than a kilometer. The extensive damage to bridges severely constrained rescue and relief efforts, as the bridges had been vital links to population centers in the region. Many of the bridges on the coastal road to Meu- laboh were destroyed and washed away, and sections of the road disappeared, FIGURE 7 Aerial view of a coastal region north of Meulaboh showing coastal plain underlain by water-saturated loose deposits of beach sand that had experienced liquefaction. Sand blows were scoured by tsunami wave action. which isolated many small communities. Survivors could be reached only by boat or helicopter. In addition, Acknowledgments the destruction of the bridges resulted in the disruption This paper is based on a team (Lloyd Cluff, George of the electric distribution system at bridge crossings. Plafker, and Stuart Nishenko) reconnaissance, spon- sored by Pacific Gas and Electric Company, to Aceh Liquefaction Province, Indonesia, in May 2005, almost five months Although earlier reconnaisances reported no evi- after the December 26, 2004, earthquake and tsunami. dence of liquefaction, earthquakes of this magnitude and The purpose of the investigation was to assess the perfor- duration commonly cause liquefaction in coastal areas. mance of gas and electric systems and related industrial During a reconnaissance by helicopter, we observed infrastructure. Our reconnaissance focused on north- extensive liquefaction in near-shore beach deposits for ern Aceh Province, where the earthquake and tsunami at least 150 kilometers along the Aceh coast, from south effects were most severe. of Meulaboh to north of Calang. Figure 7 shows massive earthquake-induced sand-blows, with craters scoured by References tsunami wave action. These liquefaction effects may Hudnut, K.W. 2006. Geologic and geodetic aspects of the have been the deciding factor in the destruction of the December 2004 great Sumatra Andaman earthquake and PT PNL 1-megawatt power plant on the coast at Calang. 2005 Nias-Simeulue earthquake: 2004 great Sumatra earthquakes and Indian Ocean tsunamis of December 2, Conclusions 2004, and March 28, 2005. Earthquake Spectra 22(S3): Although routinely constructed houses and buildings S13–S42. may have been able to survive the earthquake shaking, Kanamori, H. 2006. Seismological aspects of the Decem- tsunami waves devastated almost all of them. Most ber 2004 great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, 2004 well designed and well constructed utility and indus- great Sumatra earthquakes and Indian Ocean tsunamis trial facilities had sufficient capacity to withstand both of December 26, 2004, and March 28, 2005. Earthquake the earthquake and the tsunami. Partially full storage Spectra 22 (S3): S1–S12. tanks, bridges, and other light structures that were not Lay, T., S. Das, D. Helmberger, G. Ichinose, J. Polet, and anchored to their foundations were not able to resist D. Wald. 2005. Rupture process of the 2004 Sumatra- tsunami forces. Tectonic subsidence and liquefaction Andaman earthquake. Science 308(5725): 1133–1139. were significant contributors to the devastation. More information on constructing simple, seismically safe buildings could go a long way toward reducing fatalities.

Engineering Research for Non-Engineered Buildings

Melvyn Green

Studies of recent earthquakes have confirmed that loss of life occurs princi- pally in single-family dwellings of unreinforced masonry, usually constructed by owners or local masons with site-found materials, such as ashlar or rubble stone, earth (adobe), or manufactured masonry block or brick. The 2005 earthquake in Pakistan resulted in more than 75,000 deaths from building collapses, primarily in rural dwellings and schools constructed mostly of Melvyn Green, a structural engineer, stone and some manufactured masonry, some with a concrete bond beam is president of Melvyn Green & and columns at corners, most with concrete roofs. The recent earthquake Associates Inc., Torrance, California. in Iran had similar results, but the structures there were constructed of earth rather than stone. This paper is based on a presenta- After disasters, many nations and organizations provide short-term and tion by the author at the NAE long-term relief. Donor organizations, such as the World Bank, which often Annual Meeting in October 2006. provide or pay for replacement housing, want new structures to be earthquake- resistant both to ensure the safety of the occupants, and possibly to protect their investments. Plans for replacement buildings often call for concrete- masonry unit walls and concrete or wooden roofs. Although this kind of construction may be feasible in urban areas and towns and villages near roads, it may not be feasible in many other places. In the earthquake zone of Pakistan, for example, many villages are accessible only by trail. Thus construction materials for earthquake-resistant buildings would have to be carried long distances by hand or, at best, by mule. As a result, villagers often The 18 BRIDGE

Kariotis and Associates (ABK). Focused on unre- inforced masonry buildings with wood-framed roofs and floors, the results of the project were reviewed by the professional com- munity and later adopted into building codes. This earthquake-resistant con- struction, initially per- mitted by the city of Los Angeles as a “special pro- cedure,” has since gained acceptance and is now included in the Uniform Code for Building Con- FIGURE 1 Earthen buildings in a Morrocan village. servation and the Inter- national Existing Building reconstruct or replace destroyed or damaged buildings Code. The “special procedure” has been the basis using the same methods and materials that were used in for strengthening several thousand brick build- the original construction. ings. Although these provisions have not brought One of the problems for people in remote, earthquake- buildings up to current building code standards, prone areas is a lack of information about how to improve they have reduced the chances of death and injury construction. In fact, most engineering research has in earthquakes. been focused on the seismic rehabilitation of large, The 1994 Northridge (Los Angeles area) earthquake multistory structures rather than low-rise masonry and caused significant damage to steel-moment-frame build- earthen buildings, and very little information is avail- ing connections. In the aftermath, the Federal Emer- able on how to construct a simple building with built-in gency Management Agency (FEMA) funded research by seismic safety. a joint team of the Applied Technology Council (ATC), California Universities for Research in Earthquake Earthquake Response in the United States Engineering (CUREE), and the Structural Engineers Earthquakes in the United States have been followed by federally funded research to pro- vide guidance to engineers on seismic strengthening. The loss of life in brick buildings in past earth- quakes, particularly the 1971 Sylmar (Los Angeles area) earthquake, led to a research project funded by the National Science Foun- dation (NSF) carried out by a team with members from Agbabian Associates, S.B. Barnes and Associates, and FIGURE 2 Remains of a rammed-earth building. Spring 2007 19

Association of California (SEAOC) to test and evalu- Stone Buildings ate steel-moment connections (see http://www.sacsteel. In mountainous areas, stone has been the traditional org/). This research led to a different detailing of steel construction material for walls. Stone walls are erected as joints for new buildings—several so-called FEMA con- typical masonry lay-up with bond blocks between wythes nections and proprietary designs. Numerous other post- (Figure 3). In some cases buildings are constructed with earthquake studies of concrete buildings have focused single-wythe or unbonded, multi-wythe construction. on beam-column joints and lightly reinforced build- The roof is constructed of wood trusses with a metal cov- ings. In other parts of the world, however, much less has ering. Some later buildings were constructed with con- been done, especially for single-family dwellings and crete bond beams and concrete corner columns (Figure low-rise buildings. 4). Many also had concrete roofs. A significant number of stone buildings collapsed in the Pakistan earthquake. Earthen Buildings Inspections after the earthquake revealed that the major- Earthen buildings constructed of a mixture of sand ity of collapsed buildings were the unbonded, single- and silt with clay as the binder are found on all con- wythe construction. These buildings did not have direct tinents and in all countries (Figure 1). The most connections between bond beams and the stone walls, common types of earthen construction are adobe and which might have reduced the number of collapses. rammed earth. Adobe bricks are made in a mold and are usually 16 to 20 inches long and 8 inches or more wide, a size that can be lifted by one person. Adobe buildings are constructed in a running-bond pattern with a mortar of adobe mud between blocks. In the rammed-earth construction method (Figure 2), earth is packed into forms in a manner similar to the placement of concrete. The side of a formed unit may be as much as 4 feet high by about 6 feet long, depending on the thickness of the wall. Joints between units are packed with mud. Historically, a bond beam, usually of wood, was used FIGURE 3 Stone structures in a Morrocan village. in earthen buildings. In the seismic zones of California, a concrete bond beam, or collar, is constructed at the top of walls, usually at the roof line; in some buildings, a parapet may be constructed above the bond beam. In recent years, engineers in California have attached the bond beam to the wall with vertical connector rods. However, in many places around the world, the bond beam is not connected to the wall at all. Entire villages around the world are constructed using these methods. Some research has been done on the seismic behavior of adobe construction in several countries, including Peru and the United States. The Getty Conservation Institute, through its Getty Seismic Adobe Program (GSAP), has supported testing of adobe FIGURE 4 Collapsed building showing remains of a concrete bond beam. construction and has published the results in several reports (Tolles et al., 2000).1 Brick Masonry Buildings Brick construction, which is widely used in many 1 More information about the Getty Seismic Adobe Program is available countries, also has been the cause of many deaths and online at: http://www.getty.edu/conservation/publications/newsletters/ 11_1/news1_1.html. injuries in earthquakes. Research in the United States The 20 BRIDGE

Research Needs It may not be possible to provide the levels of safety (life safety in the 475-year event and collapse preven- tion in the 2,500 year event) as envisioned in U.S. building codes for owner-built structures in other parts of the world. Nevertheless, all of the construction types outlined in this paper can be improved. A number of studies and projects have been carried out over the years around the world, and many countries have assembled, or are assembling, building code provi- sions for different types of construction. However, these efforts have not been coordinated so that engineers and code authorities can make effective use of them. FIGURE 5 A school in Delhi, India, built of brick masonry scheduled for seismic rehabilitation. The Earthquake Engineering Research Institute online World Housing Encyclopedia2 may be a potential resource has led to many improvements; India has also developed and repository for such information. strengthening procedures. In the United States, strengthening is based on the unreinforced wall acting as a vertical beam between the floor and the roof, or between floors in multistory structures. Connections to the roof and floors keep the walls in place. In India, instead of a roof or floor diaphragm to brace the walls, the walls are allowed to span horizon- tally to perpendicular walls (Figure 5). The spacing between walls is limited and is within the traditional building wall-spacing, reflecting cultural preferences. In addition, seismic bands made of wire mesh plastered with a thin layer of concrete are placed at the roof, sill, and window lintel lines, and vertically at corners (Figure 6). This type of construction appears simi- lar to the bond-beam approach, with additional ties FIGURE 6 Drawing showing seismic bands for an existing building. at points where failures may occur. Interestingly, the placement of the seismic bands appears to be in line It has been suggested that a deterministic approach with research results on adobe buildings. It is not clear be taken in analyzing simple, low-rise buildings. This if this seismic-band type of construction is effective in would involve reviewing how these buildings fail all seismic zones, however. and determining the sequence of failure. For example, we are aware that connections between elements are Concrete Buildings with Masonry Infill critical, and research might be directed toward improv- A common construction type used worldwide, espe- ing connections between bond beams and walls. cially for low-rise structures, is a concrete “frame” Another study might determine if a corrugated metal with unreinforced masonry infill. The “virtual diago- roof could be mobilized to act as a diaphragm with nal strut” concept, in which the wall is regarded as a simple connections. diagonal brace, is one way of evaluating such structures. Another study might focus on improving single- Another is to consider the building a shear-wall struc- wythe masonry with connections or stiffening elements ture. Out-of-plane loads require positive connections, to make structures safer. We also need guidelines for usually epoxy-adhered bolts and metal connectors, between the wall and the bracing diaphragms. 2 available online at: http://www.world-housing.net/. Spring 2007 21

improving connections and the performance of low- and builders. Activities could be conducted by regional rise, concrete frame buildings with masonry infill. groups working with world bodies such as the United Nations or with individual countries. Summary Improving existing owner-built buildings constructed Reference with site-found materials would improve building per- Tolles, E.L., E.E. Kimbro, F.A. Webster, and W.S. Ginell. formance and reduce the number of deaths and amount 2000. Seismic Stabilization of Historic Adobe Structures. of damage in earthquakes. Cooperative efforts among Final Report of the Getty Seismic Adobe Project. Los nations could provide information to building owners Angeles, Calif.: Getty Conservation Institute. Resilient physical and social systems must be robust, redundant, resourceful, and capable of rapid response.

Critical Infrastructure, Interdependencies, and Resilience

T.D. O’Rourke

The concept of critical infrastructure is evolving. In the 1980s, con- cerns about aging public works led the National Council on Public Works Improvement (1988) to focus on infrastructure in the public sector, such as highways, roads, bridges, airports, public transit, water supply facilities, wastewater treatment facilities, and solid-waste and hazardous-waste services. In the 1990s, as a result of increased international terrorism, infrastructure T.D. O’Rourke is the Thomas R. Briggs was redefined in terms of national security. After 9/11, the number of “criti- Professor of Engineering at Cornell cal” infrastructure sectors and key assets listed in the National Infrastructure University and an NAE member. Protection Plan was expanded to 17 (DHS, 2006). The list includes agri- culture and food systems, the defense-industrial base, energy systems, public health and health care facilities, national monuments and icons, banking and finance systems, drinking water systems, chemical facilities, commer- cial facilities, dams, emergency services, nuclear power systems, information technology systems, telecommunications systems, postal and shipping ser- vices, transportation systems, and government facilities. Adjusting the definition to reflect current concerns has provided for flex- ibility and adaptability but has also led to some ambiguities about which assets are critical and which criteria should be used to define them. In addi- tion, the proliferation of critical-infrastructure sectors has added complexity to an already complex field. To develop basic principles that govern perfor- mance and clarify interactions, it is helpful to consolidate our thinking into Spring 2007 23

unifying concepts and a smaller number of sectors based The use of electric power at pipeline pumping sta- on common traits. tions is especially important. After Hurricane Katrina, The concept of a “lifeline system” was developed to the supply of crude oil and refined petroleum products evaluate the performance of large, geographically dis- was interrupted because of a loss of electric power at the tributed networks during earthquakes, hurricanes, and pumping stations for three major transmission pipelines: other hazardous natural events. Lifelines are grouped the Colonial, Plantation, and Capline Pipelines. As a into six principal systems: electric power, gas and liquid result, major lines of refined products were not available fuels, telecommunications, transportation, waste dis- for delivery to southern and eastern states, and gaso- posal, and water supply. Taken individually, or in the line and diesel production in the Midwest was seriously aggregate, all of these systems are intimately linked with affected by lack of supply. About 1.4 million barrels the economic well-being, security, and social fabric of per day of the crude oil supply were lost, accounting the communities they serve. Thinking about critical for 90 percent of the production in the Gulf of Mexico. infrastructure through the subset of lifelines helps clar­ Nearly 160 million liters per day of gasoline production ify features that are common to essential support systems was lost, accounting for 10 percent of the U.S. supply. and provides insights into the engineering challenges to The three major pipelines were not fully restored until improving the performance of large networks. September 14, 2005, more than 17 days after Katrina made landfall in southern Louisiana. Interdependencies Lifeline systems are interdependent, primarily by virtue of physical proximity and operational interac- tion. Consider Figure 1, for example, a photograph of the corner of Wall Street and Williams Street in New York City in 1917. The congestion shown in this photograph has not improved in the last 90 years, and similar locations can be found in a multitude of cit- ies worldwide. Critical systems in crowded urban and suburban areas like these are subject to increased risk from proximity. Damage to one infrastructural compo- nent, such as a cast-iron water main, can rapidly cas- cade into damage to surrounding components, such as electric and telecommunications cables and gas mains, FIGURE 1 Underground infrastructure at Wall Street and Williams Street in New with system-wide consequences. York City, 1917. Source: Consolidated Edison Company of New York, Inc. To complicate matters, much of this critical infra- structure is underground, which obscures the location Similar difficulties have been experienced at water- and condition of components. The proximity of aging, supply pumping stations. After the 1994 Northridge weakened pipelines to other important facilities, such as earthquake, electric power was lost for nearly 24 hours high-pressure gas mains and electric power substations, in the Van Norman complex, which receives and is frequently not recognized, increasing the potential for treats about 75 percent of the potable water for the city unanticipated accidents for which no preparations have of Los Angeles. As a result, the largest water pump- been made. ing station in the city system could not be operated. Lifeline systems all influence each other. Electric A smaller station where pumps were activated by power networks, for example, provide energy for pump- combustion engines made up for some of the loss. ing stations, storage facilities, and equipment control for Note, however, that the amount of fuel that can be transmission and distribution systems for oil and natural stored on site at pumping stations, even facilities gas. Oil provides fuel and lubricants for generators, and equipped with combustion engines, is often restricted natural gas provides energy for generating stations, com- by environmental regulations. Thus, if fuel runs out, pressors, and storage, all of which are necessary for the refueling depends on the transportation system, which operation of electric power networks. This reciprocity is also likely to be damaged and difficult to negotiate can be found among all lifeline systems. after a disaster. The 24 BRIDGE

The World Trade Center Disaster tie-up locations and hose paths are shown for each boat. The World Trade Center (WTC) disaster has been Although the combined pumping capacity of the fire- studied in detail with respect to structural failure, build- boats was 180,000 liters per minute, only a small frac- ing performance, and the impact of fire on building integ- tion of that, approximately 28,000 liters per minute, was rity. WTC also has lessons for lifeline performance and conveyed to the WTC complex, partly because the water interdependencies. When the twin towers collapsed, was relayed through relatively small hoses (90-mm and water mains servicing the WTC complex were ruptured 125-mm-nominal-diameter) (O’Rourke et al., 2003). primarily by falling debris and impact. Records of water Nevertheless, water from the fireboats was about 150 per- flow to the WTC area and nearby neighborhoods show cent of the water available from hydrants and was critical that immediately after the buildings collapsed, water to containing and extinguishing fires on the site. flow suddenly increased by 210 million liters per day, Water from the ruptured underground pipelines flowed then rose gradually another 30 million liters per day into the underground sections of the WTC complex and (O’Rourke et al., 2003). The initial jump was caused flooded the Port Authority and Trans-Hudson (PATH) by water pouring through broken water mains beneath tunnels beneath the Hudson River. PATH trains had and around the WTC complex. The additional flow transported commuters from Exchange Place Station on represents, approximately, the amount of water drawn the New Jersey side of the Hudson to the WTC Station from fire hydrants to fight fires in adjacent buildings. in the WTC underground complex. Exchange Place Water pressures at hydrants around the WTC complex Station, which is approximately 6 meters lower in ele- declined throughout the afternoon. Measurements at vation than the WTC Station, was also flooded. 6:00 p.m. showed pressure two to three blocks from the Water flooded the cable vault of the Verizon build- site at approximately one-third of normal. Of course, ing at 140 West Street, where 70,000 copper pairs and firefighting was impaired by the falling pressure. additional fiber optic-lines had been severed by falling The primary source of water at the WTC complex debris. Nearly 41,600 cubic meters of water had to be was fireboats on the Hudson River. Figure 2 is an aerial pumped from the vault during recovery. The seventh view of the WTC site, showing the deployment of four and ninth floors of the telecommunications building fireboats (Firefighter, McKean, Kane, and Smoke II). The also sustained water damage. The capacity of the tele- communications office at N World Trade Center Site 140 West Street had been Firefighter one of the largest in the world. The building housed four digital switches, 500 optical-transport systems, 0 150 m 1,500 channel banks, 17,000 optical fiber lines, 4.4 mil- Kane or Smoke II WTC 7 WTC 7 lion data circuits, and 90,000 WTC 6 message trunks. As a result WTC 5 WTC 2 WTC 5 of the damage and flood- WTC 4 ing, Verizon lost 200,000 WTC 1 voice lines, 100,000 pri- John D. McKean vate branch exchange lines, 4.4 million data circuits, and 11 cell sites. More than Legend 14,000 business and 20,000

Hose Lines residential customers were

Fireboats affected. Pumper Trucks The WTC disaster pro- WTC Site vides a graphic illustration FIGURE 2 Aerial view of fireboat deployments in response to fires at the World Trade Center. Source: O’Rourke et al., 2005. of the interdependencies of Spring 2007 25

critical infrastructure systems. The building collapses proposed a framework for defining resilience (Bruneau triggered water-main breaks that flooded rail tunnels, and Reinhorn, 2007; Bruneau et al., 2003). According a commuter station, and the vault containing all of the to Bruneau et al. (2003), resilience for both physical cables for one of the largest telecommunication nodes and social systems can be conceptualized as having four in the world. These included the Security Industry Data infrastructural qualities: Network and the Security Industry Automation Corpo- • Robustness: the inherent strength or resistance in a ration circuits used to execute and confirm block trades system to withstand external demands without degra- on the stock exchange. Before trading resumed on the dation or loss of functionality. New York Stock Exchange on Monday, September 17, 2001, the telecommunications network had to be • Redundancy: system properties that allow for alter- reconfigured. Hence, ruptured water mains were linked nate options, choices, and substitutions under stress. directly with the interruption of securities trading and • Resourcefulness: the capacity to mobilize needed the restoration of international financial stability. resources and services in emergencies. Resilience • Rapidity: the speed with which disruption can be Resilience is defined in Webster’s Unabridged Diction- overcome and safety, services, and financial stabil- ary as “the ability to bounce or spring back into shape, ity restored. position, etc., after being pressed or stretched.” Defini- As illustrated in Figure 3, an infrastructural quality, tions vary slight, but they all link the concept of resil- such as robustness, Q(t), can be visualized as a percent- ience to recovery after physical stress. age that changes with time. For buildings, Q(t) may be Since Hurricane Katrina, there has been a notable the percentage of structural or functional integrity. For shift in emphasis from protecting critical infrastructure lifelines, Q(t) may be the percentage of customers with to ensuring that communities are resilient. When trans- water or electric power. Prior to a natural hazard, severe lating new ideas or concepts that connote a particular accident, or terrorist act, Q(t) is at 100 percent. If the quality, such as resilience, into policy and implementa- system is fully resilient, it remains at 100 percent. Total tion in the real world, we must remain mindful of the loss of service results in 0 percent Q(t). If system dis- human dimensions of communities, which cannot be turbance occurs at time t , in response to an earthquake easily adapted or convolved into concepts based on the 0 or hurricane, for example, damage to the infrastructure recovery of physical entities. may reduce the quality to less than 100 percent. Level of In addition, the concept of resilience, like the concept service, as reflected by the robustness of the system, is a of critical infrastructure, is evolving. In its current form, function of the probability and consequences of damage. the resilience of a community is an overarching attri- Robustness is restored over time; at time t , the system is bute that reflects the degree of community preparedness 1 returned to its original capacity. and the ability to respond to and recover from a disaster. For a community, loss of resilience, R, can be measured Because lifelines are intimately linked to the economic as the expected loss in quality (probability of failure) well-being, security, and social fabric of a community, the initial strength and rapid recovery of lifelines are closely related to com- 100 munity resilience. Quality Debate is likely to contin- of ue about the concept of resil- Infrastructure 50 ience, and refinements and (percent) elaborations of the term are to be expected. Engineers 0 and social scientists at the t t time Multidisciplinary Center 0 1 for Earthquake Engineering Research (MCEER) have FIGURE 3 Measure of seismic resilience—conceptual definition. Source: Bruneau et al., 2003. The 26 BRIDGE

over the time to recovery, t1 – t0. Thus, mathematically, levels, the definition of R would remain unchanged, and R is defined as: additional enhancements in quality would be assessed through related metrics. The resilience framework also addresses the techni- cal, organizational, social, and economic dimensions of infrastructure. Each intersection of the matrix in The resilience factor, R, is a simple measure for quan- Table 1 has examples of technical, organizational, tifying resilience. Additional mathematical develop- social, and economic activities that support the quali- ments of this concept addressing the probabilistic and ties of a resilient community. Robustness, for example, multidimensional aspects of resilience are explained is considered in terms of technical dimensions, such elsewhere (Bruneau and Reinhorn, 2007). as building codes and retrofitting procedures. Robust- Figure 3 can be expanded to three and four dimen- ness is linked organizationally to emergency personnel sions to quantify the effects of resourcefulness and redun- and operations planning, and socially through the pre- dancy. The three-dimensional expansion, illustrated in paredness and vulnerability of different neighborhoods. Figure 4, has a third axis that quantifies the capacity to Robustness is further related to the economic diversifi- mobilize necessary resources and services in emergen- cation in a given community or group of communities. cies. As the level of activated resources increases, the time for recovery is reduced. In Figure 4, the initial loss The Human Dimension of quality remains the same for purposes of illustration, The human dimension of community resilience is but in a real event, mitigation activities and strength- expressed in the organizations responsible for lifeline ening would raise the level of initial quality, and the systems and in the communities that receive services metric for the loss of resilience, R, would be reduced. and resources from them. Community characteristics have a significant effect on resilience, especially the levels of vulnerability and preparedness. Average income, economic growth, level of awareness, and local politics, for example, have significant repercussions on

Quality critical infrastructure and disaster preparedness. These of human factors set the stage for innovation and initia- Infrastructure (percent) tives in building robust systems and implementing pro- Time grams that can speed recovery. 100 – t1 t1 Promoting Resilience t + 50 1 Resilience can be promoted in several ways: by t 0 awareness, leadership, resource allocation, and plan- 0 ning. Each of these is discussed briefly below.

Awareness Resources Resilience requires public concern about disasters FIGURE 4 3-D resilience concept (expanded in resourcefulness dimension). and the operation of critical infrastructure, which, in Source: Bruneau and Reinhorn, 2007. turn, requires public education. Children can be edu- cated effectively about hazards and environmental con- In some cases, a community may not return to pre- cerns at the K–8 level. The national network of some disaster levels after a major disaster. After Hurricane 350 science museums and centers can also help with Katrina, for example, only about 40 percent of the origi- education and outreach. These institutions are ideally nal population had returned to Orleans and St. Bernard’s suited to raising awareness of scientific and engineer- parishes as of August 2006. If New Orleans does not ing issues with children, primarily at the K–8 level, and recover to pre-Katrina levels, the resilience factor would their families. not converge, reflecting the severity of Katrina’s impact. Public education also involves media coverage via If some restoration actually exceeds original quality newspapers and television. Thus journalists and news Spring 2007 27

TABLE 1 Matrix of Resilience Qualities with Examples Pertaining to the Technical, Organizational, Social, and Economic Dimensions of Infrastructure

Dimension/Quality Technical Organizational Social Economic Robustness Building codes and Emergency operations Social vulnerability and Extent of regional construction procedures planning degree of community economic for new and retrofitted preparedness diversification structures

Redundancy Capacity for technical Alternate sites for Availability of housing Ability to substitute and substitutions and “work- managing disaster options for disaster conserve needed inputs arounds” operations victims

Resourcefulness Availability of Capacity to improvise, Capacity to address Business and industry equipment and innovate, and expand human needs capacity to improvise materials for restora- operations tion and repair

Rapidity System downtime, Time between impact Time to restore lifeline Time to regain restoration time and early recovery services capacity, lost revenue

Source: Kathleen Tierney, director of the Natural Hazards Center, University of Colorado at Boulder, personal communication. reporters must understand the critical issues, which, government at the time of the 1906 earthquake. Schmitz in turn, requires that engineers and scientists be able ordered that looters in the aftermath of the earthquake to articulate principles and factual information clearly be shot, thereby setting in motion “one of the most infa- and effectively. Meaningful public education requires mous and illegal orders ever issued by a civil authority ongoing commitments by both the technical commu- in this country’s history” (Fradkin, 2005). He also nity and the media. allowed the widespread dynamiting of buildings, which Risk communication is also important to public triggered fires that added to the conflagration that fol- awareness. An example of effective risk communica- lowed the earthquake. As a result, 490 blocks of the city tion is the naming of hurricanes, which identifies and burned to the ground, the worst single loss from fire in personalizes the hazard. In this way, the danger is made the United States. tangible and transparent to people who might be in the Contrast Schmitz’s actions with those of Mayor path of destruction. Rudolph Guiliani of New York City, who led a highly Local professional societies can also contribute visible and effective response to the WTC disaster. significantly to risk communication. For example, Guiliani was able to galvanize emergency operations, the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI), despite the loss of the city’s emergency operation center an organization of professionals in engineering, the and the deaths of many fire chiefs and police personnel geosciences, and social sciences, regularly advocates in the initial hours of the disaster. seismic safety at the local and national levels. The Leadership is, perhaps, the most critical factor in pro- Northern California Chapter of EERI conducted moting resilience, and also the least predictable. How- and participated in seminars, news conferences, and ever, we know that effective leaders require good advice. news events to promote seismic upgrades for the Bay Thus the engineering and scientific community must be Area Rapid Transit System (BART). EERI’s efforts prepared to communicate accurate, timely information were instrumental in generating the votes to pass to governmental officials. a $980 million bond issue for the seismic retrofitting of BART. Planning Planning for emergencies requires drills and Leadership emergency-response exercises, which can reveal weak- Leadership is a critical factor in promoting resilient nesses and lead to improvements in operations. The communities. Consider, for example, the actions of plan that emerges from any particular exercise, how- Mayor Eugene Schmitz of San Francisco, who presided ever, is not as important as the planning process itself, over what is regarded as a corrupt and ineffective city because as soon as a disaster unfolds, the reality of the The 28 BRIDGE event diverges from the features of even a meticulously supply system. The model includes a special code that designed scenario. With good planning, however, accounts for unstable flow in the damaged hydraulic emergency managers and lifelines operators can impro- network and is equipped with a library of 59 scenario vise, and skilled improvisation enables emergency earthquakes that can be simulated to enable study of responders to adapt to field conditions. water-supply performance in response to different seis- Significant advances have been made in high- mic events. System performance can be assessed for a performance computational models that can simu- particular earthquake, or the seismic risk can be aggre- late complex networks. These models put out highly gated and evaluated for all 59 scenarios. graphic, detailed scenarios that enable modelers and By running multiple scenarios, with and without associated emergency personnel to visualize a wide modifications of the system, operators can identify range of responses from an entire lifeline system to a recurrent patterns of response and develop an overview specific part of that system. of potential performance, helping them plan for many Figure 5 is an example of complex simulations of the eventualities and improving their ability to improvise water-distribution network operated by the Los Ange- and innovate in the event of a real temblor. les Department of Water and Power (LADWP) and its response to a scenario 6.9 magnitude earthquake on the Resource Allocation Verdugo Fault in northeast Los Angeles. Figure 5a shows Constructing and sustaining critical infrastructure the peak velocity that would be experienced throughout requires both adequate financial resources and a long- the operating area. Figure 5b identifies functional and term commitment to finishing complex projects. Con- non-functional pipelines and pinpoints the locations sider, for example, the New York City water supply, which where water demands cannot be satisfied. is delivered by City Water Tunnel 1 (commissioned in This computer model, which was developed at Cor- 1917) and City Water Tunnel 2 (commissioned in 1938). nell University in collaboration with LADWP and The state of repair of these tunnels can only be inferred MCEER, simulates all 12,000 kilometers of distribution from indirect evidence because neither can be dewatered and trunk pipelines and related facilities in the water- for inspection.

a. b.

FIGURE 5 Simulation of Los Angeles water-supply response to magnitude 6.9 scenario earthquake. a. Strong ground motions. b. Water-supply response. Spring 2007 29

A third water tunnel is crucial to providing an alter- References native path so that each of the first two tunnels can be Bruneau, M., and A. Reihorn. 2007. Exploring the concept taken out of service, inspected, and repaired. In fact, of seismic resilience for acute care facilities. Earthquake no project is more critical to the well-being and secu- Spectra 23(1), in press. rity of New York City. Bruneau, M., S. Chang, R. Eguchi, G. Lee, T. O’Rourke, A. The construction of City Water Tunnel 3 began in Reinhorn, M. Shinozuka, K. Tierney, W. Wallace, and D. 1970 and is scheduled for completion in 2020 at an von Winterfelt. 2003. A framework to quantitatively estimated total cost of $6 billion. The new tunnel will assess and enhance the seismic resilience of communities. require nearly 100 kilometers of tunneling over a period Earthquake Spectra 19(4): 733–752. of five decades. This project is indicative of the size, DHS (U.S. Department of Homeland Security). 2006. financial requirements, and time frame associated with National Infrastructure Protection Plan. Available online many critical infrastructure projects. at: www.dhs.gov/nipp. Fradkin, P.L. 2005. The Great Earthquake and Firestorms Conclusion of 1906. Berkeley and Los Angeles, Calif.: University of Developing resilient communities with appropri- California Press. ate critical infrastructure requires awareness through National Council on Public Works Improvement. 1988. education and risk communication, strong, innovative Fragile Foundations: A Report on America’s Public Works. leadership, effective planning, and the long-term com- Final Report to the President and Congress. Washington, mitment of resources to put complex systems into place. D.C.: Government Printing Office. At first glance, these requirements do not appear to be O’Rourke, T.D., A.J. Lembo, and L.K. Nozick. 2003. Les- directly associated with engineering and technology. sons Learned from the World Trade Center Disaster about However, all of them must be informed by accurate, Critical Utility Systems. Pp. 269–290 in Beyond Septem- up-to-date science, technology, and information made ber 11th: An Account of Post-Disaster Research. Special possible by partnerships and networks among commu- Publication 39. Boulder, Colo.: Natural Hazards Research nities, governments, and scientists and engineers. and Applications Information Center. O’Rourke, T.D., A.J. Lembo, L.K. Nozick, and A.L. Bonneau. Acknowledgments 2005. Resilient infrastructure: lessons from the WTC. The author thanks the National Science Foundation Crisis Response 1(4): 40–42. for its support of the research reported in this article under Award ECC-9701471 to the Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research. Governments must understand the resiliency and risk management strategies of private-sector enterprises.

Building a Resilient Organization

Yossi Sheffi

The 9/11 attack, the SARS epidemic, Hurricane Katrina, and scores of other disruptions have made companies more aware of the need for active risk management. Governments in the West have also realized that more than 85 percent of the infrastructure in western countries is owned and/or operated by the private sector. At the very least, this means that govern- ments need to understand the resiliency and risk management strategies Yossi Sheffi is a professor of of private-sector enterprises. This article, based on ideas described in my engineering systems and of civil recent book, The Resilient Enterprise: Overcoming Vulnerability for Competitive and environmental engineering Advantage (MIT Press, 2005), outlines some of the ways companies prepare for inevitable large disruptions. Most of the lessons are also relevant to gov- at the Massachusetts Institute of ernment, nonprofit, and other types of organizations. Technology. He heads the MIT Center for Transportation and A Fire in the Desert On Friday night, March 17, 2000, in Albuquerque, New Mexico, a bolt of Logistics. lightning struck a factory of Philips NV, the Dutch electronics conglomerate, causing the furnace in Fabricator No. 22 to catch fire. At the time, this did not seem to be a major event. The automatic sprinkler systems were acti- vated, and Philips-trained staffers put out the fire in less than 10 minutes. Thus, by the time firefighters from Albuquerque arrived, they had nothing to do but verify that the plant was safe. What the firefighters did not realize was that the location of the fire had been one of the cleanest places on earth, Spring 2007 31

a semiconductor fabrication plant, or “fab,” for making Although both Ericsson and Nokia had been hit by special chips for cell phones. The fire had damaged two the same disruption, one recovered while the other had of the four clean rooms. to give up significant parts of its business. How could Philips immediately notified the two largest custom- this happen? Why did the same disruption cause one ers of the plant—Ericsson LM and Nokia Corpora- large, sophisticated company to exit the market and the tion—both of whom were in the process of launching other to increase its market share? a new generation of cell phone based on chips pro- This example illustrates many lessons of resiliency. duced in the Albuquerque plant. In the original mes- Most important, risk management is not a company sage, Philips estimated a one-week delay in the supply issue that can be handled “within the four walls.” It is of chips. Nokia was not unduly perturbed by the news, a supply chain management issue. Every company is a but just to be sure, placed the affected chip on a “spe- “citizen” of its supply chain that depends on networks cial watch” that called for daily discussions between of suppliers, logistics providers, brokers, port operators, Nokia and Philips engineers. Nokia discovered very and many other facilitators to get parts to plants and quickly, however, that it would take several months to distribute products to customers. A serious business bring the Albuquerque plant back to full production, interruption can happen, not only because one of the causing the company to miss the launch of its new- company’s own facilities, distribution channels, or work- generation cell phones. At that point, Nokia sprang force is disrupted, but also when an element in its supply into action on two fronts. First, it pressed Philips to chain, its ecosystem, is disrupted. Repairing the dam- find an alternative supply from its other fabs around age to the Philips plant cost about $40 million, mostly the world—even though this would mean outsourc- covered by insurance. The damage to Ericsson—the ing some of Philips’ own production. Second, Nokia loss of its handset manufacturing business—was orders looked for alternative suppliers around the world and of magnitude larger. paid them extra for quick setup and testing and expe- dited production. Ericsson, Philips’ other major customer, basically ignored Philips’ original message, knowing that one- Risk management is a week delays in supply chains are routine and that the company had enough stock to cover the gap. In sharp supply chain issue, contrast to Nokia, however, Ericsson did not detect the not a company issue. problem fast enough, and by the time the magnitude of the shortage became apparent, the worldwide supply of special chips had been sewn up by Nokia. At the end of 2000, Ericsson announced a staggering 16.2 bil- The Nature of Risk lion kronor (U.S. $2.34 billion) loss in the company’s Most corporations today approach risk management mobile phone division, which the company blamed on in one of two ways: (1) based on models and numbers or a slew of component shortages (LaTour, 2001). About (2) based on subjective beliefs about the future. If there a year after the fire, Ericsson retreated from the hand- is reason to believe that the patterns of the past will set production market. In April 2001, Ericsson signed be repeated, a company can use data, probability distri- a deal with Sony to create a joint venture to design, butions, and models to forecast future patterns. These manufacture, and market handsets. The new company, forecasts can then be used as a basis for strategies to Sony-Ericsson, would be owned 50–50 by the two com- address expected variations in future outcomes. How- panies.1 Thus one of Nokia’s major competitors was ever, other outcomes, known as high-impact, low-prob- eliminated from the marketplace. Within six months ability (HILP) events, are difficult to forecast because of the fire, Nokia’s year-over-year share of the handset they are outside the company’s past experience. For the market increased from 27 to 30 percent. same reason, HILP events can have a significant impact on an enterprise. 1 on January 26, 2001, Ericsson announced that it would no longer Most companies first classify possible risks along two manufacture handsets and outsourced all of its manufacturing to Flex- axes (Figure 1). One axis denotes the likelihood of a par- tronics Inc. The Sony joint venture was announced three months later (Williams, 2001). ticular disruption; the other axis denotes the impact (or The 32 BRIDGE

of Mexico. Deep-water platforms have to be buttoned down and evacuated, and platforms are often damaged and have to be repaired at very high cost. However, because hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico are an annual phenomenon, BP has a well developed process for deal- ing with them. HILP events, however, such as the sinking of the Titanic, shown in the lower right quadrant, are quali- tatively different. These are events that companies, or governments, have not imagined and are not prepared for and that, therefore, can have devastating conse- quences. Examples include the 1984 disaster in the Union Carbide plant in Bhopal, India, the 1986 Cher- nobyl nuclear accident, the 2003 SARS outbreak, the 9/11 terrorist attack, and Hurricane Katrina in 2005. FIGURE 1 Example of classification of threats. Note that the expected damage (i.e., the product of probability and consequences) is not a good measure of severity) of this disruption once it hits. Figure 1 shows risk! Frequent small disruptions have little in common a simple example of this kind of risk classification. The with rare, high-impact disruptions, even though their space in which threats are placed can then be divided expected values may be similar. The former are dealt into four quadrants, as depicted in Figure 2. Rare, insig- with by operations managers in the course of their jobs, nificant events are placed in the lower left-hand quadrant while the latter can devastate an enterprise. And disrup- and are not of concern. Events with high probability tions with the highest expected value (high-probability, and light consequences are also of little concern because high-impact events) should not be the focus of most data, statistical distributions, and models provide ample attention from risk managers because organizations are warnings and tools to address them. These so-called most likely ready for them and have processes in place “firefighting” events that operations managers deal with to detect them and deal with their consequences. all the time are placed in the upper left quadrant. Even high-probability, high-impact events (upper Government Responses to High-Impact, right quadrant) are not of particular concern, because Low-Probability Events special groups in each company have processes in place In many cases, HILP events cause fear and confusion, for dealing with them. For example, BP suffers substan- and governments may feel compelled to act quickly, tial losses every time a hurricane moves through the Gulf even before all of the necessary information is avail- able. Unfortunately, hasty government actions often exacerbate problems. After the September 11 terrorist attacks, for example, the U.S. government closed U.S. borders and shut down all flights in and out of the country. These measures had immediate impacts on many supply lines. Ford Motor Company had to idle several assembly lines intermit- tently because trucks loaded with components coming in from Canada and Mexico were delayed. As a result, Ford’s fourth-quarter output in 2001 was down 13 per- cent compared to its production plan (Andel, 2002). In response to the 2001 outbreak of foot and mouth disease, the British government not only slaughtered 6.5 million cows, pigs, and sheep, but also closed the countryside to tourists. Damage to the tourism industry FIGURE 2 Four quadrants of risks. turned out to be significantly greater than damage to Spring 2007 33

the agricultural industry—and it was clearly caused by detection and quarantine until antiviral drugs and vac- the government’s actions. cines against the active flu strain can be developed. Thus enterprise managers must consider the conse- In many cases, early detection of a disruption means quences of possible government actions as part of any not only that an organization receives warning signs, disruption scenario. For example, if a container explodes but also that it can process, understand, and act on in a U.S. port, the government is likely to close all ports, those signals. A clear failure of organizational response thus causing significant economic damage. took place during Hurricane Katrina. The city of New Orleans started the evacuation too late, the state of The High Likelihood of Low-Probability Events Louisiana called in Pentagon resources too late, and the On Thursday, May 8, 2003, a powerful tornado hit Federal Emergency Management Administration pro- the General Motors (GM) assembly plant in Oklahoma vided a meager response at best. And this was a disaster City causing extensive damage and a second-quarter the country was warned about days in advance. charge of $140 to $200 million. Although the prob- ability that a specific disruption will hit a given element in a company’s supply chain during a particular week is negligible, the probability that a major disruption of Enterprises can build in some type will take place somewhere in GM’s vast sup- ply chain sometime during a given year is significant. resiliency through redundancy Thus an enterprise like GM must be resilient. or through flexibility. Resilience is, literally, the ability of a material to return to its former shape after a deformation. Simi- larly, a resilient enterprise is an organization that can “bounce back” to its pre-disruption level of manufac- Redundancy in Supply Chains turing, service to customers, or any other relevant per- An enterprise can be resilient if it creates redundan- formance metric. Enterprises can build in resiliency in cies throughout its supply chain—low-capacity utiliza- two ways— through redundancy and through flexibil- tion, extra inventory, multiple suppliers for the same ity. Regardless of the general strategy, however, early part, and so on. For example, the U.S. Postal Service detection of a disruption and the right corporate culture (USPS) was able to withstand the anthrax attacks very are major determinants of resilience. well, even though several major facilities had to be shut down. Over the last two decades, as fax, e-mail, and Early Detection online payments had reduced the volume of mail, USPS Among many counterterrorism professionals, the had not adjusted its capacity at the same pace. Thus real nightmare scenario is not a nuclear explosion or it had a built-in redundancy that proved useful in that a “dirty” bomb, but an attack in which an organization situation. However, very few commercial enterprises does not realize it is under attack until it is too late. can afford redundant capacity that can be activated in For example, the first symptoms from a lethal biologi- case of a disruption. cal agent may not be evident for weeks, but then might The most common type of redundancy is a safety spread very quickly. Therefore, the Centers for Disease stock of parts and finished products, which most com- Control in the United States, on a daily basis, looks into panies maintain to protect themselves against “normal,” geographical clusters of respiratory infections and small day-to-day fluctuations in the global flow of commerce. rashes accompanied by fever, symptoms that may signal However, maintaining safety stock as protection against a bio-terror attack in progress (Gerberding, 2004). HILP events is very expensive because a lot of inven- At the time this article is being written, the World tory would have to be kept for a long time. Keeping a Health Organization and local health authorities are large inventory is expensive for two reasons: (1) it has spending significant resources to detect the onset of avian to be maintained, financed, warehoused, and attended flu. If the virus mutates so it can be transmitted among to, even as the value of the product may decrease while humans, it could be even deadlier than the 1918 Span- it is kept in inventory; and (2) excess inventory leads ish flu, which reportedly killed 30 to 60 million people to sloppy operations—if there is a defective part in worldwide. The best defense against pandemics is early the manufacturing process or a defective product ready The 34 BRIDGE

to ship, it is easy for managers to “take one from the Interchangeable Parts and Products inventory pile” rather than take the time immediately If the same parts are used in different products, the to investigate and correct the problem. As the Toyota inventory of these parts is less susceptible to changes in manufacturing system has proven, fixing problems at the the demand for those products. For example, if a prod- source is an essential part of a superior business model. uct with a given part cannot be manufactured because of In the last two decades, leading manufacturers, dis- an unrelated problem, the part can still be used in other tributors, and retailers worldwide have made tremen- products and does not have to be discarded or held in dous strides in developing “lean,” tightly coupled, stock for a long time. Following this logic, Intel has efficient supply chains that can react to disruptions reduced a mix of 2,000 different types of resistors, capac- quickly based on advanced information technology itors, and diodes to only 35 types (Anderson, 2004). For applications, electronic data interchange standards, and the same reason, Southwest Airlines uses only one type finely honed processes. Nevertheless, the lack of built- of airplane—the Boeing 737. Airlines are always sub- in redundancy makes even these supply chains vulner- ject to disruptions from bad weather, crew shortages, able to disruptions. At the same time, no company airport congestion, and so on. However, because every can afford significant redundancies, which are likely to Southwest crew can fly every company aircraft, South- reduce competitiveness in the marketplace. west has the flexibility to respond to disruptions faster than other airlines.

Concurrent Processes Fixing problems at the Overlapping sequential processes can not only speed source is essential to superior up the recovery phase after a disruption, but can also lead to improved market responses. Lucent Technolo- business models. gies achieves concurrency through a single supply- chain organization that spans multiple company func- tions, including engineering and sales. By aligning these activities under the supply-chain umbrella, the Flexibility company can view operational areas concurrently and If companies cannot afford to “fatten” their opera- quickly assess their status in an emergency. In addition, tions with redundancies, they must build in flexibility. the company’s responses to emergencies are faster and Unlike redundancy, increasing supply-chain flexibility more efficient because people in different organizational can help a company not only withstand significant dis- units are accustomed to working together. ruptions but also respond to demand fluctuations, thus increasing its competitiveness. The notion of flexibil- Postponement ity is based on interchangeability—the ability to inter- Designing products and processes for late value addi- change elements in a supply network quickly. tion and late customization offers another layer of flex- ibility. By keeping products in a semifinished form, a Standardized Facilities and Processes company can move its products from surplus to deficit Intel plants around the world are identical (following areas. This strategy also increases fill rates and improves their Copy Exact! philosophy). When the SARS epi- customer service without increasing inventory carry- demic hit Southeast Asia, Intel was able to move pro- ing costs because products can be completed to meet a duction from its Indonesian plant to other plants with particular customer’s needs. Italian clothing manufac- relative ease. Similarly, when a severe ice storm shut turer and retailer Benetton, for example, redesigned its down the main UPS air hub in Louisville, Kentucky, manufacturing processes so that products that are sub- in 1986, making it impossible for workers to reach the ject to extreme variability in the demand for color are facility, the company kept operating by flying in workers produced as generic, undyed items that can be finished from other parts of its system. Since UPS uses standard when customer preferences can be determined, some- terminal design and processes throughout its vast sys- times even after orders are placed. tem, the new workers were able to keep the Louisville hub operating. Spring 2007 35

Alignment of Procurement Strategy with unexpectedly in December 2001, the company almost Supplier Relationships lost its business. Because of inadequate monitoring, Land In response to 9/11 and other disruptions, some Rover was totally unprepared for the bankruptcy and observers advised companies to maintain multiple sup- eventually had to pay off some of the supplier’s debt. This pliers for essential parts. However, there may be very is the dangerous situation shown in the lower left quadrant good business reasons for having a single supplier, even of Figure 3. Maintaining close relationships with many for some critical parts: (1) a single supplier is more suppliers may simply be too expensive to be practical. likely to allow access to its innovation because it is less Collaboration worried about “seepage” of its intellectual property to a competing supplier; (2) the fixed, per-supplier, cost By developing close, collaborative relationships with of procurement is minimized; (3) the company can trading partners, companies can become allies during a concentrate its buying power, possibly leading to lower crisis. Toyota, for example, recovered very quickly, with purchase costs; and (4) a company becomes a more the help of dozens of suppliers, from a fire that gutted significant customer of the supplier, thereby getting the sole plant of its main P-valve supplier in February more attention. 1997 (Nishiguchi and Beaudet, 1998). In another case, But when using a single supplier, an enterprise does loyal customers enabled bond trader Cantor Fitzgerald put all of its eggs in a single proverbial basket. To man- to recover after it lost more than a third of its employ- age the related risk, the enterprise must commit to deep ees and its headquarters on 9/11. Collaborative rela- relationships with the single supplier—it must have a tionships can also be crucial to companies responding detailed understanding, and continuously monitor, the to fluctuations in demand, which may require that the supplier’s strategy, financial condition, and the supplier’s entire supply chain ramp production up or down. suppliers. This strategy is shown in the top left-hand Corporate Culture quadrant of Figure 3. If a company decides not to incur the cost of developing deep relationships with suppliers, The factor that clearly distinguishes companies that it will be less knowledgeable about its trading partners bounce back from disruptions quickly, and even profit and, therefore, less likely to be forewarned of supply from them, is their corporate culture. Corporate culture problems. In this case, the enterprise must spread its is difficult to define and even more difficult to change. risk by maintaining a network of suppliers (lower right But as the success of the quality movement in the 1980s quadrant in Figure 3). showed, cultural change can become “everybody’s” Each company must choose the approach that aligns issue, rather than the exclusive domain of experts or its corporate-supplier relationships with its procurement vested interests. Resilient organizations, such as Nokia, strategy. For example, when Land Rover’s sole supplier Toyota, UPS, Dell, and the U.S. Coast Guard, may of chassis for the Discovery vehicle went bankrupt not appear to have much in common, but a closer look shows that they have several common traits.

Continuous Communication among Informed Employees Resilient companies communicate obsessively, keep- ing all managers aware of strategic goals, tactical factors, and the day-by-day, even minute-by-minute, pulse of the business. Dell employees, for example, have continuous access to product manufacturing and shipment informa- tion, as well as to the company’s overall status. Thus, when disruptions occur, employees can react based on up-to-date knowledge, even if the normal lines of com- munication have broken down.

Distributed Power In addition to continuous communications and FIGURE 3 Alignment of procurement strategy with number of suppliers. informed employees, resilient organizations empower The 36 BRIDGE

teams and individuals to take drastic action when nec- Conclusion essary, without waiting for the usual approvals. Toyota A resilient organization is not only “hardened” to assembly-line workers can halt production by pulling withstand disruptions of all kinds, but is also more com- an alarm cord, which brings in a team of engineers to petitive on a day-to-day basis. Supply disruptions create fix the problem. The Coast Guard moved assets into shortages, similar to spikes in demand caused by supply/ Louisiana before Katrina hit and was operating life- demand imbalances, and resilient enterprises can react saving, round-the-clock missions without specific to changing market demand ahead of their competitors. instructions from the U.S. Department of Homeland Furthermore, resilient enterprises can consider disrup- Security or even from its national headquarters in tions to be opportunities rather than problems. When Washington, D.C. The Coast Guard was guided by an large-scale disruptions affect a whole industry or an operating principle called “On Scene Initiative,” which entire region, resilient enterprises are likely to bounce essentially empowers local commanders (USCG, 2006). back ahead of their competition, winning market share In all of these organizations, individuals who take action and increasing customer loyalty. are celebrated when they are right but not punished when they are wrong. References Andel, T. 2002. Material handling in troubled times: will Passion for Work logistics save the day? Material Handling & Warehousing Successful companies engender a sense of the “greater 57(13): 22. good” in their employees. As a Southwest Airline exec- Anderson, D. 2004. Build-to-Order and Mass Customiza- utive explained, “The important thing is to take the tion: The Ultimate Supply Chain and Lean Manufactur- bricklayer and make him understand that he’s building ing Strategy for Low-Cost On-Demand Production without a home, not just laying bricks.” Similarly, navy sailors Forecasts or Inventory. Cambria, Calif.: CIM Press. do not think of their job as driving big ships, but rather Gerberding, J.L. 2004. Statement by Julie L. Gerberding, as defending freedom. director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in testimony before the Subcommittee on Labor, Health, Conditioning for Disruptions and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies, Through frequent and continuous “small” opera- Committee on Appropriations, United States House of tional interruptions, resilient, flexible organizations are Representatives, April 28, 2004. conditioned to be innovative and flexible when HILP Latour, A. 2001. Trial by Fire: A Blaze in Albuquerque Sets events occur. UPS operations, for example, are subject Off Major Crisis for Cell-Phone Giants. Wall Street Journal, to adverse weather conditions, traffic congestion, road January 29, 2001, p. A1. closures, and many other delays. Thus the company’s Nishiguchi, T., and A. Beaudet. 1998. The Toyota Group and recovery processes are tested daily. the Aisin Fire. Sloan Management Review 40(l): 49–59. Companies with relatively predictable environments Sheffi, Y. 2005. The Resilient Enterprise: Overcoming Vul- can interject uncertainty for training purposes. A spe- nerability for Competitive Advantage. Cambridge, Mass.: cial Intel team, for example, routinely visits plants and MIT Press. introduces simulated disruptions, such as the failure of USCG (U.S. Coast Guard). 2002. Principles of Coast Guard a critical supplier. The team runs the plant through a Operations. Available online at: http://www.uscg.mil/overview/ complete drill of finding and qualifying alternative sup- Pub%201/Chapter%20Four.pdf. pliers, arranging transportation, changing production Williams, M. 2001. Sony, Ericsson eye cell phone joint ven- schedules, and so on, just to guard against managerial ture. CNN.com SCI-TECH, April 20, 2001. complacency. Spring 2007 37

NAE News and Notes Class of 2007 Elected

In February, NAE elected 64 new technologies, and for contributions Stuart K. Card, senior research members and 9 new foreign associ- in engineering education. fellow, Palo Alto Research Cen- ates, bringing the number of U.S. George E. Apostolakis, professor ter (PARC), Palo Alto California. members to 2,217 and the number of nuclear science and engineering, For establishing models of human- of foreign associates to 188. Elec- Massachusetts Institute of Tech- computer interaction. tion to NAE, one of the highest pro- nology, Cambridge. For innova- Edwin A. Chandross, consultant, fessional distinctions accorded to an tions in the theory and practice of Materials Chemistry LLC, Murray engineer, honors those who have probabilistic risk assessment and Hill, New Jersey. For innovation and made outstanding contributions to risk management. leadership in the design and develop- “engineering research, practice, or Peter Michael Asbeck, professor ment of optical materials related to education, including . . . significant of electrical and computer engineer- electronics and communications. contributions to the engineering lit- ing, University of California, San Stephen Y. Chou, Joseph C. Elgin erature” and to “new and develop- Diego. For contributions to hetero- Professor of Electrical Engineering, ing fields of technology, . . . major junction bipolar transistor and inte- Princeton University, Princeton, advancements in traditional fields grated circuit technology. New Jersey. For contributions to of engineering, or . . . innovative Rudolph Bonaparte, president nanoscale patterning and to the approaches to engineering educa- and chief executive officer, GeoSyn- scaling of electronic, photonic, tion.” A list of the newly elected tec Consultants, Atlanta, Georgia. magnetic, and biological devices. members and foreign associates fol- For contributions to geoengineering George R. Cotter, director for lows, with primary affiliations at the with geosynthetics, the design of information technology and chief time of election and brief descrip- landfill waste-containment systems, information officer, National Secu- tions of principal accomplishments. and leadership in geotechnical engi- rity Agency, Fort Meade, Maryland. neering practice. For leadership in the research and New Members Eric A. Brewer, professor, Com- development of high-end com- Asad Ali Abidi, professor, Electri- puter Science Division, Univer- puting and communications for cal Engineering Department, Uni- sity of California, Berkeley. For the national security. versity of California, Los Angeles. design of highly scalable Internet Harold Gene Craighead, C.W. For contributions to the develop- services. Lake Jr. Professor of Engineering, ment of integrated circuits for MOS William R. Brody, president, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York. RF communications. Johns Hopkins University, Balti- For contributions to the fabrication Edward C. Aldridge Jr., retired more, Maryland. For contributions and exploitation of nanostructures president and chief executive offi- to digital radiography, and for leader- for electronic, optical, mechanical, cer, The Aerospace Corporation, El ship in engineering at the interface and biological applications. Segundo, California. For leadership between academia and industry. John J. Dorning, Whitney in the development and application Dale Edward Burton, sector Stone Professor of Nuclear Sci- of advanced technologies for space vice president, technology, and ence and Engineering, professor of and command and control systems. chief technology officer, integrated engineering physics, and professor Nicolaos G. Alexopoulos, dean systems, Northrop Grumman Cor- of applied mathematics, University of engineering, University of Cali- poration, Melbourne, Florida. For of Virginia, Charlottesville. For fornia, Irvine. For contributions innovations and leadership in the the development of advanced com­ to microwave circuits, antennas, development, testing, and fielding putational methods for nuclear and structures for low observable of the Joint STARS System. reactor analysis. The 38 BRIDGE

Charles T. Driscoll, Univer- sequencer, that have enabled the James L. Kirtley Jr., professor sity Professor of Civil and Envi- biotechnology revolution. of electrical engineering and com- ronmental Engineering, Syracuse Paul M. Horn, senior vice presi- puter science, Massachusetts Insti- University, Syracuse, New York. dent, research, IBM Corporation, tute of Technology, Cambridge. For For leadership in understanding the Yorktown Heights, New York. For contributions to the theoretical ecological impact of acid rain and leadership in the development of analysis, design, and construction mercury depositions. information technology products, of high-performance rotating elec- Shun Chong Fung, retired ranging from microelectronics to tric machinery. senior research associate, Exxon- supercomputing. Charles T. Kresge, vice presi- Mobil Research and Engineering Larry J. Hornbeck, TI Fellow, dent for research and development, Company, Bridgewater, New Jer- Texas Instruments Inc., Plano, Texas. Dow Chemical Company, Midland, sey. For the investigation of fac- For the invention and development Michigan. For contributions to the tors underlying the deactivation of the digital micromirror device rational design and engineering of and reactivation of catalysts, and (DMD) and its application to projec- mesoporous inorganic materials. for application of the findings in tion display technology. Panganamala R. Kumar, Frank- commercial practice. Mark A. Horowitz, professor lin W. Woeltge Professor of Elec- Bruce C. Gates, Distinguished of electrical engineering and com- trical and Computer Engineering, Professor of Chemical Engineering, puter science, Stanford University, University of Illinois, Urbana- University of California, Davis. For Stanford, California. For leader- Champaign. For contributions to scholarship on catalysis, innovative ship in high-bandwidth memory- adaptive control, manufacturing research on hydroprocessing and interface technology and in scalable systems, and wireless networks. supported molecular catalysts, and cache-coherent multiprocessor Stelios K. Kyriakides, Temple exemplary leadership in collabora- architectures. Foundation Endowed Professor, tive university/industry research. William A. Hustrulid, indepen- Department of Aerospace Engineer- Robert M. Gray, Lucent Tech- dent consultant, Bonita Springs, ing and Engineering Mechanics, nologies Professor in Communica- Florida. For contributions to the University of Texas, Austin. For tions and Networking, Stanford theory and practice of geomechan- contributions to the understanding University, Stanford, California. ics in the design of safe and efficient and technological applications of For contributions to information underground mining systems. propagating instability phenomena theory and data compression. Stuart Dodge Jessup, senior in structures and materials. Karl A. Gschneidner Jr., Anson research scientist, Carderock Divi- Simon S. Lam, Regents Chair in Marston Distinguished Professor, sion, Navy Surface Warfare Center, Computer Sciences, University of Department of Materials Science West Bethesda, Maryland. For the Texas, Austin. For contributions and Engineering, Iowa State Uni- theory, design, and development of to computer network protocols and versity, Ames. For contributions to low-noise propellers to improve the network security services. the science and technology of rare- survivability of U.S. Navy ships. Ann L. Lee, vice president, pro- earth materials. Paul John Kern, general (retired), cess development, Genentech Inc., John O. Hallquist, president, U.S. Army, Reedville, Virginia. For South San Francisco, California. Livermore Software Technology bringing modern digitization tech- For innovation and development of Corporation, Livermore, Califor- nology to bear on military effective- the large-scale, cost-effective pro- nia. For the development of explicit ness, training, and procurement. duction of vaccines that have saved nonlinear finite element methods Timothy Laurence Killeen, lives worldwide. and their worldwide dissemination director, National Center for Atmo­ David B. Marshall, principal in the DYNA family of programs. spheric Research, Boulder, Colorado. scientist, Rockwell Scientific Com- Leroy E. Hood, president, Insti- For contributions to interferom- pany, Thousand Oaks, California. tute for Systems Biology, Seattle, eter design, and to measurement For contributions that have led to Washington. For the invention and and modeling of the properties and improved strength, toughness, envi- commercialization of key instru- dynamics of the upper atmosphere ronmental stability, and reliability of ments, notably the automated DNA and ionosphere. structural ceramics and composites. Spring 2007 39

Robin K. McGuire, president and West Virginia University, Mor- University, Ithaca, New York. For principal, Risk Engineering Inc., gantown. For leadership in the contributions to the design and Boulder, Colorado. For advances in development of advanced longwall- analysis of efficient algorithms for engineering applications of probabi- mining and ground-subsidence- solving network problems. listic risk assessment in earthquakes control technologies. Sebastian Thrun, associate pro- and other natural hazards. William P. Pierskalla, Distin- fessor of computer science and Teresa H. Meng, Reid Weaver guished Professor Emeritus and electrical engineering, Stanford Dennis Professor of Electrical Engi- Dean Emeritus, University of Cali- University, Stanford, California. neering, Stanford University, Stan- fornia, Los Angeles. For leadership For contributions to probabilistic ford, California. For pioneering the in the development and application robotics, including mobile robot development of distributed wireless of operations research tools to make localization and mapping. network technology. health care more effective. Lloyd N. Trefethen, profes- Silvio Micali, professor, Depart- Gintaras V. Reklaitis, Edward sor of numerical analysis, Oxford ment of Electrical Engineering and W. Comings Professor of Chemi- University, Oxford, England. For Computer Science, Massachusetts cal Engineering, Purdue University, contributions to stability theory Institute of Technology, Cambridge. West Lafayette, Indiana. For devel- in numerical analysis and its appli­ For contributions to modern cryp- oping the theory and application of cation to determining the onset tography, through the development batch design, scheduling, and opti- of turbulence. of zero-knowledge protocols and the mization tools, and for outstanding James J. Truchard, president, theory of pseudo-randomness. contributions to education. chief executive officer, and founder, J S. Moore, Admiral B.R. Inman Walter Jeremiah (Jerry) Sand- National Instruments Inc., Austin, Centennial Chair in Computing ers III, retired chairman, Advanced Texas. For creating “virtual instru- Theory, University of Texas, Austin. Micro Devices Inc., Sunnyvale, mentation,” which enabled the For contributions to automated rea- California. For leadership in prod- rapid development of customized soning about computing systems. uct development and manufacturing measurement systems in industry, John W. Morris Jr., professor of in the semiconductor industry. academia, and classrooms. metallurgy, materials science, and James F. Stahl, chief engineer and John N. Tsitsiklis, professor, mineral engineering, University of general manager, County Sanitation Department of Electrical Engineer- California, Berkeley. For advancing Districts of Los Angeles County, ing and Computer Science, Mas- our understanding of the strength Whittier, California. For leadership sachusetts Institute of Technology, and toughness of materials through in public health and environmental Cambridge. For contributions to microstructural manipulation. protection in the wastewater utility the theory and application of opti- David J. Nash, president, BE&K industry. mization in dynamic and distrib- Inc., Birmingham, Alabama. For Thomas G. Stephens, group vice uted systems. leadership in the reconstruction of president, General Motors Power- Jonathan S. Turner, Barbara J. devastated areas after conflicts and train, General Motors Corporation, and Jerome R. Cox Jr. Professor of natural disasters. Pontiac, Michigan. For leadership in Computer Science, Washington Martin E. Newell, Adobe Fel- the development of advanced auto- University, St. Louis, Missouri. For low, Adobe Systems Inc., San Jose, motive power trains with improved contributions to the design and California. For contributions to performance, fuel efficiency, and analysis of high-performance com- computer-graphics modeling, ren- lower emissions. munication networks. dering, and printing. Kenneth E. Stinson, chairman and Sergio Verdú, professor of elec- Robert E. Nickell, president, chief executive officer, Peter Kiewit trical engineering, Princeton Uni- Applied Science & Technology, San Sons’ Inc., Omaha, Nebraska. For versity, Princeton, New Jersey. For Diego, California. For contributions leadership in the design-build engi- contributions to multiuser commu- to the finite element method and neering and construction contract- nications and information theory. the safe operation of power plants. ing of large public works projects. Anil V. Virkar, professor of mate- Syd S. Peng, Charles E. Lawall Eva Tardos, professor, Depart- rials science and engineering and Chair in Mining Engineering, ment of Computer Science, Cornell chair, Department of Materials The 40 BRIDGE

Science and Engineering, University Charles F. Zukoski, professor worldwide introduction and use of of Utah, Salt Lake City. For contri- of chemical engineering and vice drop-on-demand ink-jet printers. butions to the development of high- chancellor for research, University Kenichi Iga, executive director, temperature ionic and electronic of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign. For Japan Society for the Promotion of materials for fuel cells and batteries. research on the manipulation of Science, Tokyo. For contributions David A. Whelan, vice president- particle interactions to alter their to advanced optoelectronics, includ- general manager and deputy of suspension properties, and for lead- ing the vertical-cavity surface- Boeing Phantom Works, Boeing ership in education. emitting injection laser. Company, Seal Beach, California. Kees A. Schouhamer Immink, For contributions to and leadership New Foreign Associates president, Turing Machines Inc., in the field of radar imaging and its Timothy Berners-Lee, senior Rotterdam, Netherlands. For pio- application to stealth aircraft. research scientist, Massachusetts neering and advancing the era Paul K. Wright, A. Martin Berlin Institute of Technology, Cam- of digital audio, video, and data Chair in Mechanical Engineering, bridge. For development of the recording. University of California, Berkeley. World Wide Web. Joseph (Yosi) Kost, professor, For the invention of the first open- Roy Billinton, Emeritus Professor, Department of Chemical Engineer- architecture control of manufactur- Department of Electrical Engineer- ing, Ben Gurion University of the ing systems, and for development of ing, University of Saskatchewan, Negev, Beer-Sheva, Israel. For dis- Internet-based CAD/CAM systems. Saskatoon, Canada. For contribu- coveries that led to ultrasonic drug James Clair Wyant, dean, Col- tions to teaching, research, and release and self-regulated drug deliv- lege of Optical Sciences, University application of reliability engineering ery systems. of Arizona, Tucson. For the devel- in electric power generation, trans- Arnold Migus, directeur général, opment of interferometric opti- mission, and distribution systems. Centre National de la Recherche cal measurement techniques with Avelino Corma, director, Instituto Scientifique, Paris, France. For nanometer precision for use in pro- de Tecnología Química, UPV-CSIC, contributions to ultrafast and ultra- duction environments. Valencia, Spain. For contributions high intensity lasers and their appli- Adrian Zaccaria, vice chairman, to the understanding of heteroge- cations, especially to fast ignition president, and chief operating offi- neous catalysis that led to numerous for inertial confinement fusion. cer, Bechtel Group Inc., San Fran- commercialized solid catalysts used Xi Yao, professor and dean, cisco, California. For leadership in worldwide. School of Electronic and Informatic the design, construction, and main- Joachim Heinzl, president, Engineering, Jiaotong University, tenance of power plants and other Bayerische Forschungsstiftung, Xian, China. For contributions to types of engineering facilities all Technische Universität München, science and engineering innova- over the world. Germany. For contributions to the tions for electroceramics.

NAE Newsmakers

Zdenˇek P. Bažant, McCormick engineer to be elected a foreign Security Agency in a ceremony dur- School Professor and Walter P. member, will be inducted at a cer- ing the 22nd Annual Computer Murphy Professor of Civil and Envi- emony in June 2007. Security Applications Conference in ronmental Engineering, Northwest- Steven M. Bellovin, professor, Miami Beach, Florida, December 11– ern University, has been elected a Department of Computer Science, 15, 2006. Recipients of the award are foreign member of the Accademia Columbia University, was presented chosen for scientific or technological Nazionale dei Lincei (the Ital- with the 2007 National Informa- breakthroughs, outstanding leader- ian National Academy), the oldest tion Systems Security Award by ship, highly distinguished authorship, honorific scientific academy in the the National Institute of Standards or significant long-term contributions world. Dr. Bažant, only the second and Technology and the National to the computer security field. Spring 2007 41

Anjan Bose, Regents Professor/ Dr. DeSimone was honored for his of powerful algorithms in the fields Distinguished Professor of Electric contributions to polymer synthesis of communications, computing, Power Engineering, Washington and processing, touching on every- control and signal processing.” State University; Herbert Gleiter, thing from fundamental aspects of Norbert R. Morgenstern, Uni- professor, Research Center Karlsruhe, chemical systems to environmen- versity Professor of Civil Engineer- Institute of Nanotechnology, Germa- tally friendly ways of manufacturing ing Emeritus, University of Alberta, ny; and Kathleen C. Taylor, retired polymers. Dr. Jackson was recog- received the Varnes Medal from the director, Materials and Processes nized for her efforts to advance sci- International Consortium on Land- Laboratory, General Motors Corpo- ence and scientific applications. slides. The Varnes Medal, awarded ration, were elected foreign fellows Charles Elachi, director, Jet Pro- for internationally recognized lead- of the Indian National Academy of pulsion Laboratory, was honored as ership in the study of landslides, Engineering. Drs. Bose and Taylor one of “America’s Best Leaders” for was presented to Dr. Morgenstern at attended the induction ceremony 2006 by U.S. News & World Report UNESCO Headquarters in Paris. at the academy’s annual meeting in and the Center for Public Leader- Henry Petroski, Aleksandar S. December 2006 in Delhi. ship at the Harvard University John Vesic Professor of Civil Engineering Delbert E. Day, Curator’s Pro- F. Kennedy School of Government. and professor of history, Duke Uni- fessor Emeritus, Materials Science Dr. Elachi was one of 19 individu- versity, received the 2006 Wash- and Engineering, University of Mis- als recognized as leaders whose work ington Award from the Western souri, received the Distinguished has had a lasting impact. Society of Engineers. Dr. Petroski Life Membership Award from the Carl W. Hall, Engineering Infor- was honored for promoting the pub- American Ceramic Society at the mation Services, Arlington, Vir­ lic understanding of engineering organization’s annual meeting in ginia, received a Distinguished theory and practice. Cincinnati. This is the highest Career Award from the Department Gavriel Salvendy, Chair Profes- award bestowed by the American of Mechanical Engineering, Univer- sor and head, Industrial Engineering Ceramic Society. sity of Delaware, on April 28, 2006. Department, Tsinghue University, Robert H. Dennard, fellow, IBM Recipients are selected based on Beijing, People’s Republic of China, Thomas J. Watson Research Center, their “achievement, impact, unique- and professor, School of Industrial was awarded the C&C Prize 2006 ness, and interest.” Engineering, Purdue University, by the Foundation for C&C Promo- Jorg Imberger, director, Center received the 2006 Chinese Friend- tion. Dr. Dennard was cited “for for Water Research, University of ship Award, the highest honor fostering today’s IT industry pros- Western Australia, has been made bestowed by the Chinese govern- perity by developing the fundamen- a fellow of the American Geo- ment on a foreign expert. The award tal structure of the one-transistor physical Union. The focus of Dr. was given in conjunction with the memory cell (DRAM) and by his Imberger’s research is the effects 57th anniversary of the founding contributions to the principles and on ecological systems of motion of the People’s Republic of China. practical applications of scaling of and mixing in lakes, estuaries, and Dr. Salvendy is the fourth person MOS transistor integrated circuits coastal seas in response to natural to receive an honorary doctorate in essential for computers and digital forces and anthrogenic forcings. the 45-year history of the Chinese communication networks.” Thomas Kailath, Hitachi Academy of Sciences. Two NAE members, Joseph M. America Professor of Engineering Frieder Seible, dean and Zable DeSimone, W.R. Kenan Jr. Distin- Emeritus, Department of Electrical Professor and Reissner Professor, guished Professor of Chemistry and Engineering, Stanford University, Irwin and Joan Jacobs School of Chemical Engineering, University will be awarded the 2007 Institute Engineering, University of Cali- of North Carolina, and Shirley Ann of Electrical and Electronics Engi- fornia, San Diego, received a 2006 Jackson, president, Rensselaer Poly- neers (IEEE) Medal of Honor at Humboldt Research Award from technic Institute, were elected fel- the annual IEEE Honors Ceremony the Alexander von Humboldt lows of the American Association in June 2007. Professor Kailath will Foundation. In fulfillment of the for the Advancement of Science. be honored for the “development award, Dr. Seible will investigate The 42 BRIDGE fundamental design concepts that will also visit and collaborate with York Chapter Award for outstand- could improve how structures per- other structural research institutes ing contributions to architecture form under extreme loads caused in Germany. and engineering and for promoting by natural and manmade disasters. Richard L. Tomasetti, chairman, collaboration in the greater design He will be hosted by the faculty of Thornton-Tomasetti, and adjunct community. civil engineering at the Bauhaus professor, Columbia University, has University, Weimar. Dr. Seible been awarded the 2006 AIA New

NAE Member Gives Keynote Address at International Conference on Women in Science, Technology, and Engineering

Anne Stevens, chair and chief operating officer of Carpenter Tech- nology Corporation, was the key- note speaker at the opening session of the International Conference on Women Leaders in Science, Tech- nology and Engineering held Janu- ary 8 to 10, 2007, in Kuwait. The goal of the conference, which was organized by the U.S. State Depart- ment, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), Arab Fund for Economics and Social Development, Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research, and Kuwait Foundation for the Advancement Left to right: Dr. Amel Al-Rashdan, associate research scientist, Central Analytical Laboratory, Kuwait Institute for of Science, was to encourage a Scientific Research; Dr. Sabah Al-Momin, research scientist, Biotechonology and Food Department, Kuwait Institute dialogue among women scientists for Scientific Research; Marcia McNutt, president and CEO, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, and NAS and engineers in the region, and to member; and Anne Stevens. encourage scientific and technical exchanges. The highlight of the second day Stevens and NAS members Marye In Stevens’ talk, “Global was a discussion led by Maryam Al- Anne Fox (chancellor, University Trends,” she described her experi- Thani, chair of the IEEE Women in of California, San Diego) and Shir- ence in industry and discussed the Engineering Group, United Arab ley Malcom (AAAS). importance of addressing human- Emirates (UAE). Participants from A website is being created to capital issues in a global context. Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, facilitate communication among She also described her experi- Egypt, and UAE found they had the participants and to encour- ences as the representative for the much in common and quickly estab- age future collaboration. For more National Academies on the Advi- lished a sense of camaraderie. information about the conference or sory Panel for the InterAcademy More than 200 women scientists to receive a copy of Women for Sci- Council report, Women for Science, and engineers from 20 countries ence, please contact Catherine Did- copies of which were distributed at participated in the conference. The ion, senior program officer, NAE, at the conference. United States delegation included [email protected]. Spring 2007 43

2006 Japan-America Frontiers of Engineering Symposium

Youki Kadobayashi (left) of the Nara Institute of Science and Technology gives a presentation during the session on cybersecurity. U.S. session co-chair Cliff Wang of the U.S. Army Research Laboratory is on the right.

On November 9–11, 2006, the Presentations, by two Japanese their technical work or research sixth Japan-America Frontiers of and two Americans in each of the and break-out groups where partici- Engineering (JAFOE) Symposium four areas, covered a wide range pants had a chance to discuss public was held at the Tsukuba International of topics, such as recent advances policy issues related to the presenta- Congress Center in Tsukuba, Japan. in self-directed network-intrusion tions and develop “messages to soci- Tsukuba, the home of Tsukuba Sci- detection, implantable microsystems ety.” The participants also toured ence City, a planned research and for intracellular neural recording the Japan Aerospace Exploration education community about 60 km and stimulation, membrane protein Agency’s Tsukuba Space Center and northeast of Tokyo, is home to a large chips, and flexible liquid-crystal dis- the National Institute of Advanced number of government and corporate plays with polymer walls and fibers. Industrial Science and Technology’s R&D labs and two national univer- The Thursday evening dinner Science Square Tsukuba and Geo- sities. Approximately 60 engineers speech was given by Dr. Yasunori logical Museum. The tours were (30 from each country) and repre- Furukawa, CEO of Oxide Corpo- followed by a traditional Japanese sentatives of the Japan Science and ration, the first spin-off venture dinner at a local restaurant. Technology Corporation and Engi- company from Japan’s National Glenn H. Fredrickson, Mit- neering Academy of Japan (NAE’s Institute for Materials Science. Dr. subishi Professor of Materials and partners in this program) attended Furukawa, a 47-year-old entrepre- Chemical Engineering and director the JAFOE Symposium. neur, described the growth of Oxide of the Mitsubishi Chemical Center The four sessions at the meeting Corporation. Other highlights of for Advanced Materials at the Uni- were on cybersecurity, biomecha­ the symposium included a poster versity of California, Santa Barbara, tronics, systems and synthetic session on the first afternoon dur- and Kazuhiro Sakurada, head, Nihon biology, and organic electronics. ing which participants described Schering Research Center, Nihon The 44 BRIDGE

On the second day of the symposium, participants met in small groups to develop “messages to society.”

Schering K.K., co-chaired the orga- Science and Technology Agency, about cutting-edge developments, nizing committee and the sympo- the National Science Foundation, techniques, and approaches in many sium. Dr. Fredrickson will continue and the National Academy of Engi- fields. Frontiers meetings also pro- as U.S. co-chair of the 2007 JAFOE neering Fund. mote the establishment of contacts symposium, which will be held NAE has hosted annual U.S. and collaboration among leaders of November 5–7, 2007, at HP Labora- Frontiers of Engineering meetings the next generation in engineering. tories in Palo Alto, California. The since 1995, and JAFOE meetings For more information about the session topics for that meeting will since 2000. NAE also has bilateral symposium series or to nominate be battery technologies, rocketry/ programs with Germany and India. an outstanding engineer to partici- aerospace, human-computer inter- FOE symposia, which bring together pate in a future Frontiers meeting, action, materials for medicine, and outstanding engineers aged 30 to 45 contact Janet Hunziker at the NAE next-generation data centers. from industry, academia, and gov- Program Office at (202) 334-1571 Funding for the JAFOE Sym- ernment, provide opportunities for or by e-mail at [email protected]. posium was provided by the Japan leading young engineers to learn Spring 2007 45

Report of the Foreign Secretary

Before the JAFOE meeting, at States will be held in Moscow and the beginning of November, I met St. Petersburg from March 19 to 28, in Seoul, South Korea, with leaders 2007. The focus of the meeting will of the National Academy of Engi- be on bioterrorism, transportation, neering of Korea (NAEK), a mem- and the vulnerabilities of energy ber of the International Council infrastructure. An NAE-Chinese of Academies of Engineering and Academy of Engineering joint meet- Technological Sciences (CAETS), ing is also being planned in the next to discuss issues of common interest. few months to address questions of At the invitation of NAE foreign urban vulnerabilities to attacks with George Bugliarello associate Dr. KunMo Chung, presi- conventional explosives. Siegfried dent of Myongji University and of Hecker, a member of the Interna- I am happy to report that nine the Korean Academy of Science and tional Affairs Committee of the foreign associates have been elected Technology (KAST), I gave a lecture NAE Council, will be co-chair of for 2007 from nine different coun- on urban sustainability at KAST. both the Russian-American and tries: Canada, France, Germany, Dr. Chung subsequently visited NAE-Chinese meetings. Israel, Japan, People’s Republic of NAE in Washington to discuss the We have initiated a pilot program China, Netherlands, Spain, and possibility of a meeting to review of NAE members serving as liaisons United Kingdom. the feasibility of a thorium fuel cycle to other academies around the world. On November 8 to 11, the 2006 for nuclear reactors. Thorium is an NAE members Subra Suresh and Japan-America Frontiers of Engi- abundant resource in several coun- Darsh Wasan have agreed to liaise neering (JAFOE) Symposium was tries and does not have proliferation with the Indian National Academy held at the International Congress implications. The purpose of revis- of Engineering, and NAE member Center at Tsukuba, Japan. The iting this controversial issue would Albert Westwood will liaise with symposium was sponsored by NAE, be to review the current situation. the Russian Academy of Sciences. the Engineering Academy of Japan, The day before the JAFOE Sym- We are currently engaged in and the Japan Science and Tech- posium, there was an NAE regional discussions about possible collabo- nology Agency and was organized meeting and a tour of the Nippon rations with the Indian National by a committee co-chaired by a Telegraph and Telephone Corpora- Academy of Engineering and the Japanese and U.S. engineer. NAE tion Atsugi R&D Center, north of Leopoldina Academy and Acatech President Wm. A. Wulf welcomed Tokyo. At the meeting, President in Germany. In addition, we con- the meeting participants on behalf Wulf presented an overview of cur- tinue to be engaged with the Mexi- of NAE; Lance Davis, NAE execu- rent NAE programs and issues and can Academy of Engineering and tive officer, was present, as was Janet encouraged a dialogue on common FUMEC, the Mexican Foundation Hunziker, program officer in charge concerns among NAE members and for Engineering and Science. It is of the FOE Program. The meeting guests. The night before the meet- heartening that academies around was focused on four topics: cyber- ing, President Wulf, Lance Davis, the world share our strong interest security, biomechatronics, synthetic Janet Hunziker, and I attended a in collaborative activities. biology, and organic electronics (see dinner hosted by NAE foreign asso- Respectfully submitted, pp. 43–44 for more detail). The ciate Tatsuo Izawa. next international FOE meeting, The next meeting of the joint the German-American FOE Sym- Russian-American Academies Com- posium (GAFOE), will be held in mittee on Counterterrorism Chal- George Bugliarello April 2007 in Hamburg, Germany. lenges for Russia and the United Foreign Secretary The 46 BRIDGE

Call for Awards Nominations

For more than four decades, NAE are presented each fall at the NAE the prize is shared equally between has awarded five prizes (Founders Annual Meeting. Each recipient the recipient(s) and the institution. Award, Arthur M. Bueche Award, receives a gold medallion, a hand- The Draper, Russ, and Gordon Charles Stark Draper Prize, Fritz lettered certificate, and a $2,500 prizes, which include $500,000 cash J. and Dolores H. Russ Prize, and cash prize. awards, gold medallions, and hand- Bernard M. Gordon Prize) to honor The Charles Stark Draper Prize lettered certificates, are presented individuals who have made sig- is awarded annually for innova- during National Engineers Week at nificant contributions to human tion and reduction to practice of the NAE Annual Awards Dinner. well-being through advances in an advancement in engineering or Nominators of the winning recipi- technology and significant innova- technology that contributes to the ents are also invited to attend. tions in engineering education. We welfare and freedom of humanity. invite you to help us continue this The biennial Fritz J. and Dolores To Submit a Nomination tradition by nominating outstand- H. Russ Prize is given in recogni- Nominations for the 2007 Found- ing engineers for next year’s awards. tion of an engineering achieve- ers and Bueche Awards and the ment that has contributed to the 2008 Draper and Gordon Prizes will NAE Awards improvement of the human condi- be accepted through April 6, 2007. The Founders Award honors an tion. Currently focused on bioen- A list of previous recipients can be NAE member or foreign associate gineering, the Russ Prize encourages found on our website (www.nae.edu/ whose professional, educational, or collaborations between engineers awards). Members and foreign asso- personal achievement and accom- and the medical and biological dis- ciates have received nomination plishments exemplify the ideals and ciplines. The Bernard M. Gordon materials by mail. Nonmembers principles of NAE. The Arthur M. Prize for Innovation in Engineer- may obtain these materials from the Bueche Award is given to an engi- ing and Technology Education is NAE Awards Office at (202) 334- neer who has been actively involved given annually to honor educa- 1628 or [email protected] or may in determining U.S. science and tors whose innovative programs download them from our website. technology policy, promoting U.S. have contributed to the quality of Nomination forms should be mailed technological development, and the engineering workforce. The or faxed to: NAE Awards, National improving relations among indus- focus is on innovations in curricu- Academy of Engineering, 500 Fifth try, government, and academia. lar design, teaching methods, and Street, N.W. (#1010), Washington, The Founders and Bueche Awards technology-enabled learning, and DC 20001, Fax: (202) 334-2290.

Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Fellows

Tylisha Baber became a Christine three projects at the NAE Center for Mirzayan Science and Technology the Advancement of Scholarship on Policy Fellow on January 8, 2006. Engineering Education (CASEE): She earned a B.S. in chemical engi- characterizing the applications of neering from North Carolina State educational virtual games to engi- University and a Ph.D. in chemical neering; conducting an extensive engineering from Michigan State review of the literature on determin- University, where her dissertation ing the value of industrial experience was on the design and implementa- for undergraduate and graduate stu- tion of a biomass conversion process dents; and researching methodologies Tylisha Baber for improving the fuel properties of evaluating the teaching of scholar- of biodiesel. Tylisha is working on ship in engineering education. Spring 2007 47

Tiffani Bailey Simil Roupe Carolyn Williams

Tiffani Bailey completed her Simil Roupe is currently finishing Carolyn Williams is currently Ph.D. in chemistry from North her Ph.D. in biomedical engineering completing her Ph.D. in chemi- Carolina State University in at Johns Hopkins University. Her cal engineering at the University December 2006. Her interdisci- thesis, which reflects her interest in of California, Los Angeles. Her plinary research in chemistry and how the brain learns and processes dissertation research is focused on chemical engineering was focused language, is focused on neural and using synthetic-gene circuits in on modifying chemical and physi- vocal plasticity as a result of deaf- Escherichia coli to improve precursor cal properties at the liquid/solid ness in primates. In addition to a and cofactor availability during sec- interface to optimize surface chem- B.S.E in mechanical engineering, ondary metabolite production. This istry applications. Tiffani earned Simil received a B.A. in Spanish research could create a dynamic her B.S. in chemistry from Hamp- from Oral Roberts University in microbial strain for the industrial- ton University. Tulsa. Before attending college, level synthesis of biopharmaceuticals At NAE, Tiffani is investigating Simil worked for three years in an and other desirable products. Caro- ways to increase the engineering- elementary school pursuing another lyn completed her B.S. in biomedi- education research capacity at interest of hers, improving science cal engineering at Johns Hopkins historically black colleges and and mathematics education, espe- University in 2003. universities and Hispanic-serving cially for underrepresented groups. At NAE, she is involved in a new institutions. She is also summa- While working with the NAE project, funded by NAE member rizing advances in engineering- Committee on Diversity in the Steve Bechtel Jr., to study efforts education research and preparing Engineering Workforce, she hopes around the country to incorporate policy and practice summaries on to gain a broad perspective on how engineering concepts into K–12 advancing scholarship in engineer- scientists can promote socially curricula. During her fellowship, ing education. responsible public policy. In her she hopes to gain insight into the free time, Simil likes to hike and development of science and engi- play games with friends. She is neering curricula and the formula- looking forward to meeting people tion of education policy. Carolyn and making new friends during her enjoys reading, singing, snowboard- time in Washington. ing, and theater. The 48 BRIDGE

Engineer Girl! Website Hosts Outreach to Girl Scouts

The NAE website, Engineer Girl!, integral part of the “Introduce a Girl The goal of the project was to was developed as a resource to inter- to Engineering” project in collabora- encourage girls to explore the est middle-school girls in learning tion with the Girl Scout Council of many opportunities and options more about engineering. The num- America and National Engineers offered by careers in engineering. ber one listing on Google for girls and Week, which ran February 18 to To encourage their interest, the engineering, Engineer Girl! (www. 24, 2007. Engineer Girl! provided an Girl Scout Council offered par- engineergirl.org) provides career online forum where Girl Scouts could ticipating scout troops $50 grants guidance for students and parents, as ask women engineers from around to support activities that increase well as links, games, and interesting the world questions about their work engineering awareness. facts about the history of women in and their lives and receive feedback Suggestions and questions about engineering. The site has thousands directly from them. Photographs and the project should be directed to of visitors per week. short personal histories of the women [email protected]. This winter Engineer Girl! was an engineers were posted on the website.

NAE to Honor President Wm. A. Wulf with Philanthropic Initiative

in alternate years—each worth of thousands of miles each year to $500,000. A new media relations promote international understand- program, the Public Understanding ing and cooperation. of Engineering Program, a robust Bill’s most distinguished accom- multi-country Frontiers of Engineer­ plishment has been to address ing Program for young engineers, a problems in engineering education. Diversity Program, and the Tech- Under his leadership, NAE has nological Literacy Program have assumed a prominent role in efforts brought engineering and NAE to ensure that U.S. engineers will be greater public recognition. The prepared to compete and lead in the Maxine Savitz recently awarded experimental emerging global economy. To main- $1,000,000 Grainger Challenge tain its position in the increasingly As we near the end of Dr. Bill Prize for Sustainability has added competitive global marketplace, the Wulf’s tenure as president of NAE, to NAE’s visibility. United States must have the best I would like to highlight a few of his Bill has been a dynamic spokes- educated engineering workforce in many achievements. He assumed person for the importance of tech- the world. The Engineer of 2020 leadership of the organization at a nology in our quality of life, national project, initiated under Bill’s leader- time of intense turmoil, and to his and homeland security, and globally ship, has determined that, in addi- enormous credit, he has restored the sustainable development. He has tion to strong technical skills, future stability of the organization, rekin- been a tireless advocate of the U.S. U.S. engineers must have superb dled the interest and confidence of engineering research enterprise as teamwork and communication the members in NAE’s mission, and essential to the nation’s economic skills, an understanding of ethical reestablished NAE’s reputation in well-being. Bill has strengthened the challenges that can arise with new the National Academies and on the members’ role in governance of NAE technologies, a sensitivity to other national scene. and NAE’s role in the governance of cultures, and a commitment to life- Much has been accomplished the National Research Council. Far- long learning. These engineers must under Bill’s leadership. NAE now ther from home, he has intensified be able to operate effectively in both awards the Draper and Gordon NAE’s participation in international business and academic settings. Prizes yearly and the Russ Prize activities and has traveled hundreds It is my pleasure to announce that Spring 2007 49

last May the NAE Council decided deceased members, friends, corpo- much appreciate the generosity of to honor Bill’s contributions by rations, and foundations. All of NAE members and friends. Your undertaking the Wm. A. Wulf them made generous financial con- support makes it possible for NAE to Campaign for Engineering Excel- tributions to NAE in 2006; most of be proactive in anticipation of criti- lence. The money raised in Bill’s them are long-time supporters of our cal engineering issues. I feel confi- honor will provide seed funding for organization. We wish to express dent that we will continue to grow projects and programs that support our deep and sincere appreciation the resources NAE needs to advise NAE’s tradition of excellence in of their support. Simply put, NAE the nation and provide leadership engineering. In addition, the Center could not exist without them. to the engineering community. On for the Advancement of Scholarship I thank everyone who contrib- behalf of the NAE officers, council- on Engineering Education will be uted in 2006 and request that you lors, and staff, thank you. renamed the Wm. A. Wulf Center all join me in supporting the Wm. for the Advancement of Scholarship A. Wulf Campaign for Engineering on Engineering Education. Excellence in 2007. To date, about Sincerely, In the following pages you will $4.5 million has been raised, and we Maxine L. Savitz see the names of NAE support- hope the momentum continues. NAE Vice President ers, including members, spouses of As NAE vice president, I very

National Holt Ashley* Richard Evans Mrs. Leon K. Kirchmayer Richard C. and Rita Mary E. Wilson and Frederick A. Klingenstein Academy of Atkinson Harvey V. Fineberg Daniel E. Koshland Jr. Engineering Norman R. Augustine Tobie and Dan Fink William W. Lang W.O. Baker* George and Ann Fisher Gerald and Doris Laubach 2006 Private Contributions William F. Ballhaus Sr. Harold K. and Betty A. Tillie K. Lubin* The National Academy Craig and Barbara Barrett Forsen Whitney MacMillan of Engineering gratefully Eleanor F. Barschall William L. and Mary Kay William W. McGuire acknowledges the following Jordan and Rhoda Baruch Friend Burton and DeeDee members and friends who Warren L. Batts Eugene Garfield McMurtry made charitable contributions Stephen D. Bechtel Jr. William H. Gates III Richard and Ronay during 2006. Their collec- Kenneth E. Behring T. H. Geballe Menschel tive, private philanthropy C. Gordon Bell Nan and Chuck Geschke Ruben F. Mettler* advances NAE’s service and Elwyn and Jennifer William T. Golden Dane and Mary Louise increases its impact as advi- Berlekamp Corey S. Goodman Miller sor to our nation. Diane and Norman Bernard M. Gordon The Honorable* and Mrs. Bernstein David Grainger G. William Miller Einstein Society Elkan Blout* Jerome H. and Barbara N. George and Cynthia In recognition of members Harry E. Bovay Jr. Grossman Mitchell and friends who have made David G. Bradley Corbin Gwaltney Ambrose K. Monell lifetime contributions of Donald L. Bren William M. Haney III Gordon and Betty Moore $100,000 or more to the Sydney Brenner Michael and Sheila Held Joe and Glenna Moore National Academies. Margaret A. Hamburg and M. Blakeman Ingle David and Lindsay Peter F. Brown Robert L. and Anne K. Morgenthaler Anonymous Fletcher and Peg Byrom James Richard M. Morrow John Abelson James McConnell Clark Anita K. Jones Philip Needleman Bruce and Betty Alberts Dale and Jeanne Compton Thomas V. Jones Gerda K. Nelson Rose-Marie and Jack R. Roman W. DeSanctis Kenneth A. Jonsson Ralph S. O’Connor Anderson George and Maggie Eads Yuet W. Kan Peter O’Donnell Jr. John and Lise Armstrong Cindy and Jeong Kim *Deceased *Deceased The 50 BRIDGE

Kenneth H. Olsen William A. Anders Frank W. Luerssen Heritage Society Doris Pankow William F. Ballhaus Jr. Kenneth G. McKay In recognition of NAE Jack S. Parker Paul Baran John L. Moll members and friends who Shela and Kumar Patel Thomas D. Barrow Van C. Mow have contributed to the Percy Pollard Roy H. Beaton* George E. Mueller future of the National Acad- Robert A. Pritzker Franklin H. Blecher Dale D. Myers emies through life income, Dr. and Mrs. Allen E. Erich Bloch Norman A. Nadel bequests, and other estate Puckett Barry W. Boehm Robert M. Nerem and planned gifts. Ann and Michael Ramage Lewis M. Branscomb Ronald P. Nordgren Simon Ramo George Bugliarello Franklin M. Orr Jr. Andreas Acrivos Carol and David Richards William Cavanaugh III Simon Ostrach Gene M. Amdahl Walter L. Robb Robert A. Charpie Lawrence T. Papay John A. Armstrong Hinda G. Rosenthal* Joseph V. Charyk Zack T. Pate Norman R. Augustine George Rowe John M. Cioffi Donald E. Petersen Stephen D. Bechtel Jr. Jack W. and Valerie Rowe A. James Clark Dennis J. Picard Paul Berg Mrs. Joseph E. Rowe Stephen H. Crandall George B. Rathmann Franklin H. Blecher Mrs. Fritz J. Russ Lance A. Davis Eberhardt Rechtin* Daniel Branton William J. Rutter Ruth M. Davis Charles Eli Reed Robert and Lillian Brent Jillian Sackler E. Linn Draper Jr. George A. Roberts Morrel H. Cohen Bernard G. and Rhoda Mildred S. Dresselhaus Henry M. Rowan Colleen Conway-Welch Sarnat Robert J. Eaton Brian H. Rowe Ellis B. Cowling Wendy and Eric Schmidt Robert C. Forney Henry Samueli Ruth M. Davis Sara Lee and Axel Schupf Donald N. Frey Maxine L. Savitz Robert A. Derzon Shep and Carol Ruth Richard L. Garwin Warren G. Schlinger Paul M. Doty Shepherd Louis V. Gerstner Roland W. Schmitt Mildred S. Dresselhaus Melvin I. Simon Martin E. Glicksman Robert C. Seamans Jr. Ernest L. Eliel Georges C. St. Laurent Jr. Joseph W. Goodman Robert F. Sproull Gerard W. Elverum Jr. Charlotte and Morry William E. Gordon Arnold F. Stancell Emanuel Epstein Tanenbaum Robert W. Gore Chauncey Starr William K. Estes Ted Turner James N. Gray Raymond S. Stata Richard Evans Leslie L. Vadasz Paul E. Gray H. Guyford Stever Robert C. Forney Roy and Diana Vagelos Martin C. Hemsworth Peter B. Teets Paul H. Gilbert John C. Whitehead Robert J. Hermann Daniel M. Tellep Martin E. Glicksman Wm. A. Wulf David A. Hodges Leo J. Thomas George Gloeckler Alejandro Zaffaroni Edward E. Hood Jr. Gary L. Tooker Michael and Sheila Held Irwin M. Jacobs Ivan M. Viest Richard B. Johnston Jr. Golden Bridge Society Edward G. Jefferson* Andrew J. Viterbi Anita K. Jones of the National Acad- Trevor O. Jones Willis H. Ware Jerome Kagan emy of Engineering Robert E. Kahn Johannes Weertman Samuel Karlin In recognition of NAE Thomas Kailath Julia R. Weertman John W. Landis members and friends who Paul G. Kaminski Robert H. Wertheim William W. Lang have made cumulative con- James N. Krebs Albert R. C. Westwood Jane Menken tributions of $20,000 to Kent Kresa Robert M. White G. Lewis and Ingrid Meyer $99,999. John W. Landis Sheila Widnall Gordon E. Moore David M. Lederman John J. Wise Arno G. Motulsky Andreas Acrivos Frank T. Leighton Edward Woll Van C. Mow William F. Allen Jr. Johanna M. H. Levelt A. Thomas Young Mary O. Mundinger Gene M. Amdahl Sengers Mrs. Gerda K. Nelson Norman F. Ness *Deceased *Deceased *Deceased Ronald P. Nordgren Spring 2007 51

Gilbert S. Omenn Lance A. Davis John J. Wise Siegfried S. Hecker Dr. and Mrs. Bradford Robert J. Eaton Wm. A. Wulf John and Wilma Parkinson Daniel J. Fink Kassakian Zack T. Pate George M. C. Fisher Rosette Society James R. Katzer Daniel W. Pettengill Howard Frank In recognition of NAE Pradman P. Kaul Frank Press William L. and Mary Kay members and friends who Theodore C. Kennedy Simon Ramo Friend contributed between $5,000 Doris Kuhlmann-Wilsdorf Allen F. Rhodes William H. Gates III and $9,999 to the National James F. Lardner Alexander Rich Nan and Chuck Geschke Academies in 2006. Alfred E. Mann Frederic M. Richards Robert W. Gore Dale and Marge Myers David K. Barton Henry W. Riecken L. Louis Hegedus John Neerhout Jr. Roy H. Beaton Richard J. and Bonnie B. Martin C. Hemsworth Robert M. Nerem Barry W. Boehm Robbins Irwin M. Jacobs Robert B. Ormsby Jr. Alan C. Brown James F. Roth Anita K. Jones Ronald L. Rivest Louis V. Gerstner Jr. Sheila A. Ryan Thomas V. Jones Linda S. Sanford Joseph W. Goodman Paul R. Schimmel Dr. and Mrs. Paul G. Laurence C. Seifert Robert E. Kahn Stuart F. Schlossman Kaminski Daniel I. C. Wang Gerald D. Laubach Rudi Schmid Jeong H. Kim Albert R. C. Westwood David M. Lederman Kenneth I. Shine Kent Kresa Frank W. Luerssen Robert L. Sinsheimer John W. Landis Charter Society Ariadna Miller Dale F. Stein Robert W. Lang In recognition of NAE Richard M. Morrow Esther S. Takeuchi William W. Lang members and friends who Cynthia S. and Norman Ivan M. Viest Dane and Mary Louise contributed between $1,000 A. Nadel Willis H. Ware Miller and $2,499 to the National Ronald P. Nordgren Robert H. Wertheim John L. Moll Academies in 2006. Jonathan J. Rubinstein John Archibald Wheeler Gordon E. Moore Donald R. Scifres Andreas Acrivos Wm. A. Wulf Franklin M. Orr Jr. H. Guyford Stever William G. Agnew Charles Yanofsky Lawrence T. Papay Leo J. Thomas Clarence R. Allen Michael Zubkoff Jack S. Parker Matthew V. Tirrell Minoru S. Araki Dennis J. Picard Vern W. Weekman Jr. David H. Archer Catalyst Society Robert A. Pritzker Johannes Weertman Neil A. Armstrong In recognition of NAE mem- Ann and Michael Ramage Edward Woll Wm. H. Arnold bers and friends who contrib- Henry M. Rowan A. Thomas Young Irving L. Ashkenas uted $10,000 or more to the Brian H. Rowe Thomas W. Asmus National Academies in 2006. Mrs. Fritz J. Russ Challenge Society Ken Austin Maxine L. Savitz Anonymous In recognition of NAE Clyde and Jeanette Baker Wendy and Eric Schmidt John A. Armstrong members and friends who Earl E. Bakken Robert C. Seamans Jr. Bishnu S. Atal contributed between $2,500 Wallace B. Behnke Robert F. Sproull Estate of W.O. Baker and $4,999 to the National Franklin H. Blecher Chauncey Starr William F. Ballhaus Jr. Academies in 2006. David B. Bogy Beno Sternlicht Paul Baran Seth Bonder Morris and Charlotte Lew Allen Jr. Craig and Barbara Barrett H. Kent Bowen Tanenbaum Oliver C. Boileau Stephen D. Bechtel Jr. Lewis M. Branscomb Peter B. Teets Harold Brown C. Gordon Bell Andrew Brown Daniel M. Tellep Kristine L. Bueche Harry E. Bovay Jr. George Bugliarello Gary and Diane Tooker Joseph V. Charyk John M. Cioffi James R. Burnett Andrew J. Viterbi Ruth A. David A. James Clark Robert P. Caren Estate of Alan M. Nicholas M. Donofrio W. Dale and Jeanne Francois J. Castaing Voorhees Thomas E. Everhart Compton Corbett Caudill Robert H. Wertheim Wesley L. Harris The 52 BRIDGE

William Cavanaugh III George N. Hatsopoulos John W. Morris John E. Swearingen A. R. Chamberlain Dr. Adam Heller C. Dan Mote Jr. Neil E. Todreas Shu and Kuang-Chung John L. Hennessy Albert Narath Paul E. Torgersen Chien David and Susan Hodges A. Richard Newton* John W. Townsend Jr. Sunlin Chou Charles O. Holliday Neil E. Paton James A. Trainham III Paul Citron Edward E. Hood, Jr. H. W. Paxton Hardy W. Trolander Philip R. Clark Evelyn L. Hu Celestino R. Pennoni Robert C. Turnbull Joseph M. Colucci J. S. Hunter Thomas K. Perkins James E. Turner Jr. Harry M. Conger Lee A. Iacocca William J. Perry Ali G. Ulsoy Esther M. Conwell Mary Jane Irwin Donald E. Petersen Charles M. Vest Gary L. Cowger George W. Jeffs Frank E. Pickering Harold J. Vinegar Henry Cox G. Frank Joklik William F. Powers Thomas H. Vonder Haar Stephen H. Crandall Evelyn S. Jones Donald E. Procknow Robert H. Wagoner Natalie W. Crawford Thomas Kailath Edwin P. Przybylowicz Darsh T. Wasan Malcolm R. Currie Leonard Kleinrock Henry H. Rachford Jr. William L. Wearly Lawrence B. Curtis Albert S. Kobayashi Vivian and Subbiah Willis S. White Jr. Glen T. Daigger Dr. Robert M. Koerner Ramalingam Eugene Wong James W. Dally Demetrious Koutsoftas Simon Ramo Edgar S. Woolard Jr. Lee L. Davenport Don R. Kozlowski George B. Rathmann Richard N. Wright Carl de Boor James N. Krebs Buddy D. Ratner Abe M. Zarem Raymond F. Decker Henry Kressel Joseph B. Reagan Thomas B. Deen Lester C. Krogh Kenneth L. Reifsnider Other Individual Daniel W. Dobberpuhl Way Kuo Richard J. and Bonnie B. Donors James J. Duderstadt Charles C. Ladd Robbins In recognition of NAE Edsel D. Dunford Richard T. Lahey Jr. George A. Roberts members and friends who Gerard W. Elverum James U. Lemke Bernard I. Robertson contributed up to $999 to the Delores M. Etter Ronald K. Leonard Murray W. Rosenthal National Academies in 2006. Thomas V. Falkie Fred J. Leonberger Anatol Roshko Anonymous Dr. Michael Field Carroll N. LeTellier Gerald F. Ross H. Norman Abramson Edith M. Flanigen Mark J. Levin Rustum Roy Jan D. Achenbach Samuel C. Florman Frederick F. Ling Allen S. Russell Ronald J. Adrian G. David Forney Jr. Jack E. Little Andrew P. Sage Mihran S. Agbabian Robert C. Forney Robert G. Loewy Vinod K. Sahney Hadi A. Akeel Harold K. Forsen Thomas S. Maddock Harvey W. Schadler Paul A. Allaire Gordon E. Forward David A. Markle Ronald V. Schmidt Frances E. Allen Jacques S. Gansler Edward A. Mason Frank J. Schuh Charles A. Amann Elsa M. Garmire James F. Mathis John B. Slaughter John E. Anderson Joseph G. Gavin Jr. Robert D. Maurer Ernest T. Smerdon John G. Anderson Donald W. Gentry Dan Maydan Bob Spinrad John L. Anderson Alexander F. Giacco Sanford N. McDonnell Joel S. Spira John C. Angus Paul H. Gilbert James C. McGroddy Arnold F. Stancell Frank F. Aplan Norman A. Gjostein* Kishor C. Mehta Raymond S. Stata James R. Asay Eduardo D. Glandt Richard A. Meserve Richard J. Stegemeier David Atlas Arthur L. Goldstein James J. Mikulski Z. J. John Stekly Jamal J. Azar William E. Gordon James K. Mitchell Henry E. Stone Arthur B. Baggeroer Paul E. Gray Paul V. Mockapetris Stanley D. Stookey Donald W. Bahr Edward E. Hagenlocker Benjamin F. Montoya Ronald D. Sugar Ruzena K. Bajcsy Delon Hampton Duncan T. Moore Jerome Swartz B. J. Baliga John R. Moore *Deceased *Deceased Richard E. Balzhiser Spring 2007 53

Rodica A. Baranescu Douglass D. Crombie Robert A. Frosch Rakesh K. Jain John W. Batchelor David E. Crow Douglas W. Fuerstenau Robert B. Jansen Robert F. Bauer David E. Daniel Theodore V. Galambos Paul C. Jennings Howard and Alice Baum Paul D. Dapkus Zvi Galil James O. Jirsa Zdenek P. Bazant Edward E. David Jr. Gerald E. Galloway Donald L. Johnson Robert Ray Beebe Delbert E. Day Richard Gambino Marshall G. Jones Leo L. Beranek Robert C. Dean Jr. Nicholas J. Garber Aravind K. Joshi Robert R. Berg* Dr. Charles A. Desoer Edwin A. Gee Biing-Hwang Juang Marsha J. Berger Robert C. DeVries Ronald L. Geer Joseph M. Juran Arthur E. Bergles George E. Dieter Don P. Giddens John W. Kalb David P. Billington Frederick H. Dill Elmer G. Gilbert Ivan P. Kaminow Wilson V. Binger Ralph L. Disney George J. Gleghorn Kristina B. Katsaros Jack L. Blumenthal Albert A. Dorman Lawrence R. Glosten Randy H. Katz Alfred Blumstein Irwin Dorros Earnest F. Gloyna Raphael Katzen F. P. Boer Earl H. Dowell Alan J. Goldman Lawrence L. Kazmerski Geoffrey Boothroyd David A. Duke Steven A. Goldstein Leon M. Keer George H. Born Floyd Dunn Solomon W. Golomb Howard H. Kehrl Lillian C. Borrone Ira Dyer David J. Goodman Sung Wan Kim P. L. Thibaut Brian Peter S. Eagleson Roy W. Gould C. Judson King Peter R. Bridenbaugh Lewis S. Edelheit Thomas E. Graedel Donald E. Knuth Corale L. Brierley Helen T. Edwards Serge Gratch Riki Kobayashi James A. Brierley Christine A. Ehlig- James N. Gray U. Fred Kocks James E. Broadwell Economides Leslie Greengard Bernard L. Koff Frederick P. Brooks Jr. Bruce R. Ellingwood Michael D. Griffin Max A. Kohler Thomas F. Budinger Frances P. Elliott William A. Gross William J. Koros Jack E. Buffington Joel S. Engel Elias P. Gyftopoulos John M. Kulicki Ned H. Burns F. Erdogan Jerrier A. Haddad Sau-Hai Lam Jeffrey P. Buzen John V. Evans Carl W. Hall James L. Lammie L. Gary Byrd Lawrence B. Evans John M. Hanson Benson J. Lamp James D. Callen James R. Fair Julius J. Harwood David A. Landgrebe Edward J. Campbell Dr. Robert M. Fano Henry J. Hatch Carl G. Langner E. Dean Carlson James A. Fay Martin Hellman Louis J. Lanzerotti Douglas M. Chapin Alexander Feiner Robert W. Hellwarth Chung K. Law Vernon L. Chartier Joseph Feinstein James Hillier* Alan Lawley Nai Y. Chen Robert E. Fenton Gerald D. Hines Edward D. Lazowska Anil K. Chopra Michael J. Fetkovich Narain G. Hingorani Margaret A. LeMone Andrew R. Chraplyvy Bruce A. Finlayson George J. Hirasaki Lawrence Leser Richard C. Chu Fred N. Finn William C. Hittinger Johanna M. H. Levelt Edmund M. Clarke Essex E. Finney Jr. Allan S. Hoffman Sengers John L. Cleasby Mr. and Mrs. Millard David C. Hogg Marc Levenson Louis F. Coffin Jr. Firebaugh Charles H. Holley Herbert S. Levinson Richard A. Conway Peter T. Flawn Berthold K. Horn Kenneth Levy George E. Cooper Merton C. Flemings John R. Howell Salomon Levy Fernando J. Corbato John S. Foster Jr. Thomas P. Hughes Paul A. Libby Ross B. Corotis Abdel-Aziz A. Fouad Izzat M. Idriss Frances S. Ligler Dale R. Corson Charles A. Fowler Sheldon E. Isakoff Peter W. Likins Richard W. Couch Gerard F. Fox Tatsuo Itoh Barbara H. Liskov Eugene E. Covert Judson C. French Stephen B. Jaffe Joseph C. Logue Eli Fromm Andrew J. Lovinger *Deceased *Deceased The 54 BRIDGE

Robert E. Luetje Joseph Nowak Dr. Peter W. Sauer Spencer R. Titley Verne L. Lynn Wesley L. Nyborg Thorndike Saville Jr. Richard L. Tomasetti J. Ross Macdonald James G. O’Connor Geert W. Schmid- Charles H. Townes Malcolm MacKinnon III Daniel A. Okun Schoenbein Charles E. Treanor William J. MacKnight Charles R. O’Melia Roland W. Schmitt Myron Tribus Christopher L. Magee Robert S. O’Neil William R. Schowalter Alvin W. Trivelpiece Subhash Mahajan Alan V. Oppenheim William F. Schreiber Howard S. Turner Frederick J. Mancheski David H. Pai Albert B. Schultz Moshe Y. Vardi I. Harry Mandil* Athanassios Z. Henry G. Schwartz Jr. Gregory S. Vassell William F. Marcuson III Panagiotopoulos Lyle H. Schwartz Anestis S. Veletsos Robert C. Marini Frank L. Parker Ricardo B. Schwarz Walter G. Vincenti Hans Mark Robert J. Parks Alexander C. Scordelis Raymond Viskanta James J. Markowsky Donald R. Paul Norman R. Scott John Vithayathil David K. Matlock J. Randolph Paulling Hratch G. Semerjian Irv Waaland Hudson Matlock Arogyaswami J. Paulraj Robert J. Serafin Jeffrey Wadsworth Krzysztof Matyjaszewski P. Hunter Peckham F. Stan Settles Steven J. Wallach William C. Maurer Alan W. Pense Michael R. Sfat C. Michael Walton Walter G. May Arno A. Penzias S. P. Shah John D. Warner Walter J. McCarthy Jr. John H. Perepezko Maurice E. Shank Joseph E. Warren William J. McCroskey Julia M. Phillips Freeman D. Shepherd Warren M. Washington William McGuire Thomas H. Pigford Thomas B. Sheridan John T. Watson Ross E. McKinney Karl S. Pister Reuel Shinnar Wilford F. Weeks Robert M. McMeeking Robert Plonsey Neil G. Siegel Dr. Robert J. Weimer Alan L. McWhorter Victor L. Poirier Daniel P. Siewiorek Sheldon Weinbaum Eugene S. Meieran William R. Prindle William H. Silcox Sheldon Weinig David Middleton Ronald F. Probstein Arnold H. Silver Jasper A. Welch Jr. Angelo Miele Dr. Charles W. Pryor Jr. Peter G. Simpkins Jack H. Westbrook Warren F. Miller Jr. Sally J. Querfeld Jack M. Sipress Marvin H. White Joan L. Mitchell Raja V. Ramani Carol R. Skruch Richard N. White Sanjit K. Mitra Eugene M. Rasmusson Alvy R. Smith Robert M. White Dade W. Moeller Robert H. Rediker Franklin F. Snyder Robert M. White Frederick J. Moody Charles Eli Reed Soroosh Sorooshian Robert V. Whitman Richard K. Moore Cordell Reed Harold G. Sowman Dr. Dennis F. Wilkie Douglas C. Moorhouse Elsa Reichmanis Francis M. Staszesky Ward O. Winer A. S. Morse Robert O. Reid Dale F. Stein Holden W. Withington Joel Moses Eli Reshotko Gunter Stein M. Gordon and Elaine E. P. Muntz Allen F. Rhodes Dean E. Stephan Wolman Earll M. Murman Jerome G. Rivard Theodore Stern Dr. Savio and Mrs. Pattie Haydn H. Murray Lloyd M. Robeson Kenneth H. Stokoe II Woo Peter Murray Theodore Rockwell Richard G. Strauch Richard D. Woods Thomas J. Murrin Alton D. Romig Gerald B. Stringfellow David A. Woolhiser Albert F. Myers Robert K. Roney Mr. and Mrs. Dean Eli Yablonovitch Gerald Nadler Arye Rosen Swartzwelter T. L. Youd Devaraysamudram R. Ken Rosen James M. Symons Laurence R. Young Nagaraj Yoram Rudy Charles E. Taylor Venkatesh Narayanamurti William B. Russel George Tchobanoglous Presidents’ Circle Stuart O. Nelson Murray B. Sachs R. B. Thompson In recognition of donors from Joseph H. Newman Alfred Saffer James M. Tien the private sector whose con- William S. Saric William F. Tinney tributions are dedicated to *Deceased Spring 2007 55

promoting awareness of sci- Norman Hackerman Susan E. Siegel Jewish Community ence and technology in our William M. Haney III Georges C. St. Laurent Jr. Foundation society and a better under- Samuel F. Heffner Jr. Deborah Szekely JustGive standing of the work of the Jane Hirsh Robert H. Waterman W.M. Keck Foundation National Academies. M. Blakeman Ingle Kenneth E. Weg Lockheed Martin Christopher Ireland Susan E. Whitehead Corporation Jack R. Anderson Robert L. James Sheila E. Widnall Lucent Technologies, Inc. Barbara M. Barrett Howard W. Johnson Margaret S. Wilson Lutron Electronics Craig R. Barrett Scott A. Jones Wm. A. Wulf Company, Inc. Thomas D. Barrow Kenneth A. Jonsson Carole S. Young Lutron Foundation Ernest A. Bates Alice Kandell James F. Young Marmon Group, Inc. Warren L. Batts William F. Kieschnick Microsoft Corporation Berkley Bedell William I. Koch Corporations, Foun- National Instruments Diane Bernstein Jill Howell Kramer dations, and Other Foundation E. Milton Bevington John H. Krehbiel Jr. Organizations Northrop Grumman Elkan R. Blout* Gerald D. Laubach Arkema Inc. Corporation Jo Ivey Boufford Richard J. Mahoney AYCO Charitable Nuclear Energy Institute E. Cabell Brand Robert H. Malott Foundation Ohio University John I. Brauman Thomas A. Mann S. D. Bechtel, Jr. David and Lucile Packard George Bugliarello Davis Masten Foundation Foundation Malin Burnham John F. McDonnell Bell Family Foundation PJM Interconnection, Dan W. Burns Burton J. McMurtry Clark Charitable L.L.C. Fletcher L. Byrom Charles H. McTier Foundation Rockwell Automation, Louis W. Cabot Kamal K. Midha Community Foundation Inc. Wiley N. Caldwell G. William Miller* for Southeastern Ronald L. and Cinda S. George W. Carmany III George P. Mitchell Michigan Roudebush Foundation M. Blouke Carus Joe F. Moore Cummins Business San Diego Foundation David R. Challoner Robert W. Morey Jr. Services Charles Schwab Ralph J. Cicerone David T. Morgenthaler Charles Stark Draper Corporation James McConnell Clark Darla Mueller Laboratory Schwab Charitable Fund Michael T. Clegg Patricia S. Nettleship Dupont Company Southern Nuclear Dollie Cole Peter O’Donnell Jr. Employees Charity Operating Company, W. Dale Compton Jack S. Parker Organization Inc. Nancy E. Conrad Frank Press ExxonMobil Corporation T. Rowe Price Program for Howard E. Cox Jr. Robert A. Pritzker ExxonMobil Foundation Charitable Giving Charles R. Denham Allen E. Puckett Fidelity Charitable Gift Teagle Foundation Inc. Charles W. Duncan Jr. Peter H. Raven Fund Texas Instruments George C. Eads John S. Reed Ford Motor Company Incorporated James L. Ferguson Charles W. Robinson Ford Retired Engineering Triangle Community Harvey V. Fineberg Neil R. Rolde Executives Foundation, Inc. William L. Friend Hinda G. Rosenthal* GE Foundation United Technologies John Brooks Fuqua* Stephen J. Ryan General Electric Company Corporation Raymond E. Galvin Jillian Sackler General Motors United Way of Central Eugene Garfield Harvey S. Sadow Corporation New Mexico Jack M. Gill Maxine L. Savitz Hewlett-Packard United Way of Greater Ronald L. Graham Barbara A. Schaal Company New Haven, Inc. Ruth H. Grobstein Sara Lee Schupf Ingersoll-Rand Company Watermark Estate Jerome H. Grossman H.R. Shepherd Intel Corporation Management Services International Business *Deceased *Deceased Machines Corporation The 56 BRIDGE

Calendar of Meetings and Events

March 13 NRC Governing Board Executive April 19 NAE Regional Meeting May 10–11 NAE Council Meeting Committee Meeting Northwestern University Darby, Montana March 15 NAE Regional Meeting Evanston, Illinois June 6 NAE/NAEF Finance and Budget Georgia Institute of Technology April 23 NAE Regional Meeting Committee Meeting Atlanta, Georgia Purdue University June 14 NRC Governing Board Executive April 5 NAE Regional Meeting West Lafayette, Indiana Committee Meeting Stanford University April 26–28 German-American Frontiers of June 20 NAE/NAEF Audit Committee Palo Alto, California Engineering Symposium Meeting April 10 NRC Governing Board Executive Hamburg, Germany Committee Meeting May 7–8 Convocation of Professional All meetings are held in the Academies buildings, Washington, D.C., unless otherwise noted. For April 11 Presidents’ Committee Meeting Engineering Societies information about regional meetings, please April 12 NAE Regional Meeting May 8 NRC Governing Board Executive contact Sonja Atkinson at [email protected] or Carnegie Mellon University Committee Meeting (202) 334-3677. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania May 8–9 NRC Governing Board Meeting

In Memoriam

Alfred J. Eggers Jr., 84, istration, publication, research, and Retired Visiting Professor, Stanford retired chairman and CEO, RANN teaching of applied and structural University, died on August 10, 2006. Inc., died on September 22, 2006. mechanics and his encouragement Dr. Rott was elected to NAE in 1993 Dr. Eggers was elected to NAE in and mentoring of students and for teaching and research leading to 1972 for contributions to experi- younger colleagues. fundamental advances in aerodynam- mental and theoretical research ics, acoustics, and fluid mechanics. in supersonic and hypersonic aero­ Ralph A. Logan, 80, Retired dynamics and in aerospace vehicle Distinguished Member of the Tech- George A. Samara, 70, technology. nical Staff, AT&T Bell Laborato- senior scientist, Sandia National ries, died on December 1, 2006. Dr. Laboratories, died on December Ben C. Gerwick Jr., 87, Hon- Logan was elected to NAE in 1992 30, 2006. Dr. Samara was elected orary Chairman and senior tech- for contributions to the develop- to NAE in 1986 for contributions nical consultant, Ben C. Gerwick ment of solid-state lasers. to the understanding of dielectric, Inc., died on December 25, 2006. ferroelectric, and ferromagnetic Professor Gerwick was elected to A. Richard Newton, 55, materials applications. NAE in 1973 for contributions and dean of engineering, University of leadership in the application of engi- California, Berkeley, died on Janu- Milton C. Shaw, 91, Professor neering technology to underground, ary 2, 2007. Dr. Newton was elected of Engineering, Emeritus, Mechani- harbor, and ocean construction. to NAE in 2004 for innovations and cal and Aerospace Engineering leadership in electronic design auto- Department, Arizona State Uni- George Herrmann, 85, mation and for leadership in engi- versity, died on September 7, 2006. Professor of Applied Mechanics, neering education. Professor Shaw was elected to NAE Emeritus, Stanford University, died in 1968 for contributions to chemi- on January 8, 2007. Dr. Herrmann Nicholas Rott, 88, retired cal synthesis, lubrication and bear- was elected to NAE in 1981 for professor of fluid dynamics, Swiss ing design, and machine tool design major contributions to the admin- Federal Institute of Technology, and and performance. Spring 2007 57

Alan F. Shugart, 76, presi- John W. Simpson, 92, retired elected to NAE in 1966 for his con- dent, Al Shugart International, died executive vice president, Westing- tributions to the field of nuclear on December 12, 2006. Mr. Shugart house Electric Corporation, and power. was elected to NAE in 1997 for con- retired president, Westinghouse tributions to disc memory devices and Power Systems Company, died on interfaces for personal computers. January 4, 2007. Mr. Simpson was The 58 BRIDGE Publications of Interest

The following reports have been Polar Icebreakers in a Changing World: budgetary authority among the rel- published recently by the National An Assessment of U.S. Needs. The evant agencies. Academy of Engineering or the United States’ long-standing nation- NAE member Anita K. Jones, National Research Council. Unless al and strategic interests in the polar Lawrence R. Quarles Professor of otherwise noted, all publications are regions include citizens who live Engineering and Applied Science, for sale (prepaid) from the National above the Arctic Circle and three University of Virginia, chaired the Academies Press (NAP), 500 Fifth year-round scientific stations in the study committee. Paper, $30.50. Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Wash- Antarctic. Polar icebreaking ships ington, DC 20055. For more infor- are necessary to ensure access to A Matter of Size: Triennial Review of mation or to place an order, contact both regions. For several decades, the National Nanotechnology Initia- NAP online at the U.S. government has supported tive. The National Nanotechnol- or by phone at (888) 624-8373. a fleet of four icebreakers—three ogy Initiative (NNI) was created (Note: Prices are subject to change multi-mission U.S. Coast Guard in 2000 to focus and coordinate without notice. Online orders receive a (USCG) ships (Polar Sea, Polar nanoscience and nanotechnology 10 percent discount. Please add $4.50 Star, and Healy) and a National research and development (R&D) for shipping and handling for the first Science Foundation ship (Palmer), funded by several federal agencies book and $0.95 for each additional which is dedicated solely to scien- and to ensure that research leads to book. Add applicable sales tax or GST tific research. Although Polar Star the responsible development and if you live in CA, DC, FL, MD, MO, and Polar Sea are at the end of their deployment of nanotechnology for TX, or Canada.) service lives, no funds have been the economic benefit and security allocated or plans made to extend of the nation. In the 21st Century Frontiers of Engineering: Reports on the program, thus putting U.S. ice- Nanotechnology Research and Leading-Edge Engineering from the breaking capability at risk. This Development Act (P.L. 108-153), 2006 Symposium. This proceedings report concludes that the United Congress directed the National from the 2006 U.S. Frontiers of States should continue to support Research Council to review the pro- Engineering Symposium includes its interests in the Arctic and Ant- gram every three years to monitor the 15 papers that were presented at arctic and maintain its leadership its overall progress. This report pro- the symposium, as well as the din- in polar science. The report makes vides the results of the first review, ner speech by W. Dale Compton, several recommendations: (1) the which addresses the economic Lillian M. Gilbreth Distinguished United States should immediately impact of nanotechnology develop- Professor of Industrial Engineering program, budget, design, and con- ments and provides a benchmark Emeritus, Purdue University, and struct two new polar icebreakers to for comparing U.S. R&D efforts to NAE home secretary. The papers be operated by USCG; (2) Polar Sea efforts by foreign competitors. In cover intelligent software sys- should remain mission capable, and addition, the report provides an tems and machines, the nano/bio Polar Star should remain available assessment of the current status of interface, engineering for personal for reactivation until the new polar responsible development and a dis- mobility, and supply chain manage- icebreakers enter service; (3) the cussion of the feasibility of molecu- ment and applications with eco- USCG operations and maintenance lar self-assembly. nomic and public impact. budget should support an increased, NAE members James C. Wil- NAE member Julia M. Phillips, regular, and influential presence in liams, Honda Professor of Materi- director, Physical, Chemical, and Nano the Arctic, with support from other als, Ohio State University, chaired Sciences Center, Sandia National agencies; and (4) a Presidential the study committee, and Cherry Laboratories, chaired the organizing Decision Directive should be issued A. Murray, deputy director for committee. Paper, $42.25. to coordinate responsibilities and science and technology, Lawrence Spring 2007 59

Livermore National Laboratory, NAE member G. Wayne Clough, prevention, and pollution control. was cochair. Other NAE mem- president, Georgia Institute of The report concludes that because bers on the study committee were Technology, chaired the study of a lack of data and the limitations Paul A. Fleury, dean, Faculty of committee. Other NAE members of current models, the effects of the Engineering, Yale University, and on the committee were Rafael L. NSR rule changes cannot be quan- Mary L. Good, Donaghey Univer- Bras, Edward A. Abdun-Nur Pro- tified with reasonable certainty. sity Professor and dean, Donaghey fessor, Massachusetts Institute of The report describes the data nec- College of Information Science and Technology; John T. Christian, essary to assess the impact of NSR Systems Engineering (DCISSE), consulting engineer, Waban, Mas- rules and recommends that EPA and University of Arkansas at Little sachusetts; Delon Hampton, chair- other government agencies under- Rock. Paper, $41.50. man of the board, Delon Hampton take and sustain efforts to collect & Associates; and Thomas D. them. Although this report focuses Third Report of the NAE/NRC Commit- O’Rourke, Thomas R. Briggs Pro- specifically on the 2002 and 2003 tee on New Orleans Regional Hurricane fessor of Engineering, Cornell Uni- rule changes, its analytic framework Protection Projects. This review of a versity. Free PDF available online could also be applied to changes in June 1, 2006, draft study by the fed- at: http://www.nap.edu. other regulatory contexts. eral Interagency Performance Evalu- NAE member John C. Crittenden, ation Task Force (IPET), which was New Source Review for Stationary Richard Snell Presidential Chair of established in 2005 to evaluate the Sources of Air Pollution. The Clean Civil and Environmental Engineer- performance of the New Orleans Air Act established two pro- ing, Arizona State University, was regional hurricane protection sys- grams—known collectively as a member of the study committee. tem during Hurricane Katrina, is New Source Review (NSR)—to Paper, $65.00. the third report in a series by a joint regulate air pollution from large National Academy of Engineering/ stationary sources, such as factories Revealing the Hidden Nature of Space National Research Council com- and electricity-generating facilities. and Time: Charting the Course for Ele- mittee. Although the study under NSR rules required that permits be mentary Particle Physics. As part of review includes more than 6,000 issued for (1) building new facilities Physics2010, the National Research pages of text, figures, and tables, that could produce emissions above Council was asked by the U.S. Depart- the committee finds that it has sev- a specified level and (2) making ment of Energy and the National eral shortcomings. First, IPET has changes to existing facilities that Science Foundation to recommend not provided an executive summary could increase emissions. In 2002, priorities for the U.S. particle physics that clearly explains the study objec- the Environmental Protection program for the next 15 years. Given tives and findings. Because such a Agency (EPA) changed the NSR the global nature of the field and the summary will be essential for policy rules to clarify the modifications that lack of a long-term and distinguish- makers and New Orleans officials require permits. In October 2003, ing strategic focus, the challenge for and citizens, IPET should provide EPA made additional, extremely the study committee was to identify an easily understood summary that controversial, changes, referred a compelling leadership role for the includes clearly stated conclusions to as the equipment-replacement United States in elementary particle linked to analyses in the body of the provision, that allow equipment physics. This report provides an study. Second, despite advances in replacement without an NSR per- assessment of scientific challenges in geotechnical evaluations at the sites mit as long as a facility does not particle physics, including key ques- of specific levee breaches, IPET’s exceed its maximum level of allow- tions and experimental opportuni- descriptions and analyses of geo- able emissions. In response to a ties; a review of the current status logic and soil conditions across the request from Congress, EPA asked and strategic framework of the U.S. region are inadequate. In addition, the National Research Council to program; and strategic principles and estimates of storm surges and flood- estimate the effects of both sets recommendations for sustaining a ing must include characterizations of of changes on human health, competitive, globally relevant U.S. uncertainties. operating efficiency, pollution particle physics program. The 60 BRIDGE

NAE members Norman R. Engineering and Applied Science, Agricultural and Mechanical Col- Augustine, retired chairman and University of Virginia; and Wm. A. lege, was a member of the study com- CEO, Lockheed Martin Corpora- Wulf, president, National Academy mittee. Paper, $43.25. tion, and Charles V. Shank, E.O. of Engineering. Paper, $51.25. Lawrence Berkeley National Labo- Hearing Loss Research at NIOSH: ratory, were members of the study Evaluation of the Sea Grant Program Reviews of Research Programs of the committee. Paper, $36.00. Review Process. The National Sea National Institute for Occupational Grant College Program, created in Safety and Health. This is the first in Countering Urban Terrorism in Rus- 1966, has grown into a nationwide a series of 15 reviews by the Institute sia and the United States: Proceedings network of 30 individual Sea Grant of Medicine of research programs of of a Workshop. In early 2005, the programs located at some of the the National Institute for Occupa- National Academies Committee nation’s top universities. Adminis- tional Safety and Health (NIOSH). on Counterterrorism Challenges for tered through the National Oceanic Taking into account important fac- Russia and the United States and the and Atmospheric Administration, tors that are beyond the program’s Russian Academy of Sciences Stand- this state-federal partnership funds control, the committee finds that in ing Committee on Counterterrorism marine and Great Lakes applied the past decade (the period covered held a workshop in Washington, research, education, and outreach by this review), the Hearing Loss D.C., on urban terrorism. Prior to and has been a major source of fund- Research Program has made mean- the workshop, three working groups ing for work on marine aquaculture; ingful contributions to improving had been convened to investigate studies of shellfish diseases, aquatic worker health and safety. However, the vulnerabilities of energy systems nuisance species, coastal and estua- the committee also finds that some and transportation systems and issues rine ecology; seafood safety; and of the research is narrowly targeted related to cyberterrorism. The work- marine biotechnology, engineering, on areas less relevant to protect- ing groups met with local experts and technology development, and policy. ing workers. To help the program first responders, prepared reports, A 1994 National Research Council fulfill its stated mission of provid- and presented their findings at the (NRC) report recommended that ing national and world leadership workshop. Other papers focused on the Sea Grant Program develop a in reducing occupational hearing integrated responses of various orga- process for reviewing its individual loss through a focused program of nizations to acts of urban terrorism, programs on a four-year cycle; a research and prevention, the com- recent acts of terrorism, potential review process was implemented in mittee recommends that program radiological, biological, and cyber­ 1998 and modified by Congress in planning and implementation be terrorism, and the root causes of ter- the 2002 reauthorization of the pro- improved; more program evaluations rorism. These proceedings include gram. The legislation also included be implemented; additional intra- the workshop presentations and a request for this NRC study to assess mural and extramural expertise be reports by the working groups. the review process in terms of fair- obtained, especially in epidemiology NAE member Siegfried S. Hecker, ness and consistency and measures of and noise-control engineering; and Visiting Professor, CISAC, Stanford improved performance. The report efforts be initiated to obtain surveil- University, chaired the study com- recommends improvements in the lance data for occupational hearing mittee. Other NAE members on independent reviews conducted loss and workplace noise exposure. the study committee were John F. every four years and strategic plan- NAE member William W. Lang, Ahearne, director, Ethics Program, ning for individual programs, more president, Noise Control Founda- Sigma Xi, The Scientific Research interaction between the National tion, was a member of the study Society; Lewis M. Branscomb, Sea Grant Office and individual pro- committee. Paper, $45.75. Visiting Faculty, School of Interna- grams, and annual assessments by the tional Relations and Pacific Studies; national office to improve the rating Renewing U.S. Telecommunications George Bugliarello, President Emer- and ranking process. Research. The U.S. telecommuni- itus and University Professor, Poly- NAE member James M. Coleman, cations infrastructure—made pos- technic University; Anita K. Jones, Boyd Professor, Coastal Studies Insti- sible by research over the last several Lawrence R. Quarles Professor of tute, Louisiana State University and decades—is an essential element of Spring 2007 61

the U.S. economy. However, U.S. of efforts to reconstruct surface- valves, storage tanks, reservoirs, leadership in telecommunications temperature records for the Earth for meters, fittings, and other hydrau- technology is at risk because of a the last 2,000 years and the implica- lic appurtenances—which deliver recent decline in domestic support tions of these efforts for our under- drinking water from centralized for long-term, fundamental research. standing of global climate change. treatment plants or wells to consum- To help address this challenge, the Because widespread, reliable tem- ers, cover almost one million miles National Science Foundation asked perature records are only available in the United States and represent the National Research Council to for the last 150 years or so, scientists the major components of the physi- assess the state of telecommunica- must estimate temperatures for the cal infrastructure for water supplies. tions research in the United States more distant past by analyzing “proxy Thus, they constitute the primary and recommend ways to halt the evidence,” such as tree rings, cor- management challenge for distribu- decline. This report provides an als, ocean and lake sediments, cave tors, both in terms of operations and analysis of support levels, focus, deposits, ice cores, boreholes, and public health. Recent data on out- and time horizons for telecommu- glaciers. Since the late 1990s, scien- breaks of waterborne diseases suggest nications research by industry, an tists have used sophisticated meth- that distribution systems are sources assessment of telecommunications ods to combine proxy evidence from of contamination that have yet to research at universities, and a dis- many locations to estimate changes be addressed. This report evaluates cussion of the implications of these in surface temperature in the last few recent data and approaches to risk findings for the health of the tele- hundred to few thousand years. This characterization and identifies strate- communications sector. The report report concludes that scientists can gies for reducing risks posed by water- also provides recommendations for now say, with a high level of con- quality deteriorating events, such as improving the situation and provid- fidence, that global mean surface backflow via cross connections and ing more funding for fundamental temperature was higher in the last contamination during construction telecommunications research. few decades of the 20th century than and repair activities, maintenance NAE member Robert W. Lucky, during any comparable period in the of storage facilities, and premise retired corporate vice president, preceding four centuries. Large-scale plumbing. The report also identifies research, Telcordia Technologies reconstructions of surface tempera- advances in detection, monitoring, Inc., chaired the study committee. tures for A.D. 900 to 1600 are less and modeling; analytical methods; Other NAE members on the study certain, although proxy evidence and research and development oppor- committee were John M. Cioffi, indicates that temperatures at many, tunities that could help the water- Hitachi America Endowed Chair but not all, individual locations were supply industry reduce risks. Professor of Electrical Engineer- higher during the past 25 years than NAE member Ve r n o n L . ing, Stanford University; David G. during any period of comparable Snoeyink, Professor of Environ- Messerschmitt, Roger A. Strauch length since A.D. 900. Statements mental Engineering Emeritus, Emeritus Professor of Electrical about the hemispheric mean or University of Illinois, chaired the Engineering and Computer Scienc- global mean surface temperature study committee. Paper, $69.00. es, University of California, Berke- prior to about A.D. 900 are less reli- ley; Lawrence R. Rabiner, Professor able, primarily because of the scarcity A Review of United States Air Force II, Rutgers, The State University of of precisely dated proxy evidence. and Department of Defense Aerospace New Jersey; William J. Spencer, NAE member Robert E. Dick- Propulsion Needs. Future U.S. Air Chairman Emeritus, SEMATECH; inson, professor, School of Earth Force and other military aerospace and Jack Keil Wolf, Stephen O. and Atmospheric Sciences, Geor- systems will be based on rocket and Rice Professor, University of Cali- gia Institute of Technology, was a air-breathing propulsion systems. fornia, San Diego. Paper, $18.00. member of the study committee. However, current trends, such as Paper, $40.00. rising fuel prices, rising costs for Surface Temperature Reconstructions for sustaining aircraft, a shrinking the Last 2,000 Years. This study was Drinking Water Distribution Systems: domestic launch capability, and undertaken in response to a request Assessing and Reducing Risks. Water uncertainties about the avail- from Congress for an assessment distribution systems—pipes, pumps, ability and quality of domestic The 62 BRIDGE researchers in the future, have Kenneth M. Rosen, president, in Academic Science and Engineer- intensified concerns about the General Aero-Science Consultants ing: Workshop Report. Although development of these technologies LLC; Robert L. Sackheim, assis- the number of women studying sci- and systems. To help assess the tant director and chief engineer for ence and engineering (S&E) has situation, the Air Force and U.S. propulsion, NASA George C. Mar- increased dramatically (women now Department of Defense asked the shall Space Flight Center; and Ben earn 51 percent of S&E bachelor’s National Research Council to eval- T. Zinn, David S. Lewis Jr. Chair degrees and 37 percent of Ph.D.s, uate the U.S. aerospace propulsion- and Regents’ Professor, Daniel including 45 percent in biomedical technology base to determine if Guggenheim School of Aerospace fields), the number of women (espe- current research is likely to support Engineering, Georgia Institute of cially African American women) future war-fighting capabilities. Technology. Paper, $18.00. who hold academic faculty positions This report provides an assessment is not commensurate with their of the existing technology base; an Review of the Space Communications share of the S&E talent pool. This analysis of gaps in technology; and Program of NASA’s Space Operations discrepancy is apparent at the junior recommendations for supporting Mission Directorate. The Space Com- and senior faculty levels and at top future capabilities that have not yet munications Office (SCO) of the research-intensive universities. Dif- been fully defined under current National Aeronautics and Space ferences in career progression and plans for science and technology Administration (NASA) has two success have been attributed to development. The report covers primary roles: (1) to manage two of many factors: gender-based differ- air-breathing technologies; rocket the communications networks that ences in cognitive abilities, career technologies for access-to-space and enable spaceflight operations and interests, and preferences; bias and in-space operations and for missiles; research; and (2) to integrate agency- discrimination; gender-based insti- and cross-cutting technologies. wide telecommunications. In 2005, tutional policies and practices; and NAE members on the study NASA asked the National Research mistaken assumptions about gender committee were Donald W. Bahr, Council to assess the overall quality roles. In December 2005, nationally retired manager, Combustion of the space-communications pro- recognized experts in a number of Technology, GE Aircraft Engines; gram and the effectiveness of SCO. disciplines came together to address Yvonne C. Brill, aerospace consul- This report includes reviews of each (1) the results of research on sexual tant, Skillman, New Jersey; Dennis element of the program—the space differences in capability, behavior, M. Bushnell, chief scientist, NASA network, NASA’s integrated space career decisions, and achievement; Langley Research Center; David E. network, spectrum management, (2) the role of organizational struc- Crow, retired senior vice president standards management, search and tures and institutional policies; of engineering, Pratt and Whitney; rescue, communications and naviga- (3) cross-cutting issues of race and Thomas W. Eagar, professor of tion architecture, technology, and ethnicity; (4) key research needs materials engineering and engineer- operations integration. The report and experimental paradigms and ing systems, Massachusetts Institute reviews the plans for each program tools; and (5) policy ramifications of of Technology (MIT); Gerard W. element, plan-development meth- research, particularly for evaluating Elverum, retired vice president and odologies, linkages with the broader current and potential academic fac- general manager, Applied Tech- community, and overall capabilities ulty. This workshop report provides nology Division, TRW Space and and recommends improvements in an introduction; summaries of panel Defense; Edward M. Greitzer, H.N. SCO operations and organization. discussions, including public com- Slater Professor of Aeronautics and NAE member Antonio L. Elias, ment sessions; and poster abstracts. Astronautics, MIT; Bernard L. executive vice president and general NAE members on the study com- Koff, chief engineer, TurboVision; manager, Orbital Sciences Corpo- mittee were Alice M. Agogino, pro- Neil E. Paton, chief technology ration, was a member of the study fessor of mechanical engineering, officer, Liquidmetal Technologies; committee. Paper, $26.50. University of California, Berkeley, Eli Reshotko, Kent H. Smith Pro- and Elaine Weyuker, AT&T Fellow, fessor Emeritus of Engineering, Biological, Social, and Organizational AT&T Labs Research. Paper, $39.00 Case Western Reserve University; Components of Success for Women Spring 2007 63

Testing of Defense Systems in an Evolu- prior to their use; and (6) taking operations (NCO), this gap must be tionary Acquisition Environment. The advantage of information from prior closed. To help address this prob- preferred process for the develop- stages of development to improve lem, the Army asked the National ment of very complicated defense the test design of subsequent stages. Research Council to determine if systems is evolutionary acquisition, In addition, the acquisition commu- funding for research on network sci- whereby a system is developed in nity needs more expertise in experi- ence could help close the gap. The stages as part of a single acquisition mental design, statistical modeling, study finds that, although networks program. By putting a high priority software engineering, and physics- are indispensable to the defense on the identification of failure modes based and operational-level mod- of the United States, no science early in system development, intro- eling and simulation. Overall, the today can supply the fundamental ducing only mature new technolo- study committee recommends that knowledge necessary for design- gies, and limiting the simultaneous the entire enterprise of operational ing large, complex networks in a introduction of new components or testing be designed so that potential predictable way. The study also subsystems, the military hopes to operational failure modes, limita- finds that current federal funding reduce cost overruns, development tions, and level of performance of for network research is focused on delays, and system inadequacies. a system can be identified early in specific applications rather than on The recommendations in this report the process. the advancement of fundamental include: (1) modifying operational NAE members Seth Bonder, knowledge. This report argues for testing from pass/fail to continuous Bonder Group, and Stephen M. the importance of network science experimentation so that as much as Pollock, Herrick Emeritus Profes- and explains how support for funda- possible can be learned about the sor of Manufacturing, University mental research on networks could strengths and weaknesses of system of Michigan, were members of the help the Army advance its transfor- components; (2) focusing testing on study committee. Paper, $18.00. mation to NCO. detecting design inadequacies and NAE member Charles B. Duke, failure modes; (3) modifying the Network Science. Although the U.S. retired vice president and senior incentive system in defense acquisi- Army depends on a wide range of research fellow, Xerox Corporation, tion and testing to encourage learn- interacting physical, informational, chaired the study committee. NAE ing and discovery; (4) coordinating cognitive, and social networks, the member John E. Hopcroft, profes- the activities of system developers, fundamental understanding of how sor, Computer Science Department, government testers, and system these networks work is still primi- Cornell University, was vice chair. users; (5) demonstrating the tech- tive. As the Army “transforms” to Paper, $35.00. nological maturity of components a force capable of network-centric Contribute your ideas at

The Periodicals BRIDGE Postage Paid (USPS 551-240)

National Academy of Engineering 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20418