Keynames: M. S. Bartlett, D.G. Kendall, stochastic processes, World War II Wordcount: 17,843 words “It took a global conflict”— the Second World War and Probability in British Mathematics John Aldrich Economics Department University of Southampton Southampton SO17 1BJ UK e-mail:
[email protected] Abstract In the twentieth century probability became a “respectable” branch of mathematics. This paper describes how in Britain the transformation came after the Second World War and was due largely to David Kendall and Maurice Bartlett who met and worked together in the war and afterwards worked on stochastic processes. Their interests later diverged and, while Bartlett stayed in applied probability, Kendall took an increasingly pure line. March 2020 Probability played no part in a respectable mathematics course, and it took a global conflict to change both British mathematics and D. G. Kendall. Kingman “Obituary: David George Kendall” Introduction In the twentieth century probability is said to have become a “respectable” or “bona fide” branch of mathematics, the transformation occurring at different times in different countries.1 In Britain it came after the Second World War with research on stochastic processes by Maurice Stevenson Bartlett (1910-2002; FRS 1961) and David George Kendall (1918-2007; FRS 1964).2 They also contributed as teachers, especially Kendall who was the “effective beginning of the probability tradition in this country”—his pupils and his pupils’ pupils are “everywhere” reported Bingham (1996: 185). Bartlett and Kendall had full careers—extending beyond retirement in 1975 and ‘85— but I concentrate on the years of setting-up, 1940-55.