Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin
Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin
Volume 3: October 2008
Gloucestershire = 6,639 people 7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000 = 100 people 1000
0 232 more people claiming Unemployment Benefit in October 2008
Produced by:
The Research Team (Economics) Chief Executive’s Support Unit Gloucestershire County Council November 2008 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 3: October 2008 SUMMARY
The claimant rate in Gloucestershire was 1.9% in October 2008. This was an increase of 0.1% on the September 2008 figure. This is the fifth consecutive monthly increase. Both the UK and the South West rates also increased by 0.1% between October 2008 and September 2008. Gloucestershire’s rate remains slightly above the South West average of 1.7%, but over half a per cent lower than the UK average of 2.6%.
CLAIMANT RATE ACROSS GLOUCESTERSHIRE, THE SOUTH WEST AND THE UK OVER THE PAST YEAR Claimant Rate (%)
3.0
2.5
2.0 United Kingdom
South West 1.5 Gloucestershire 1.0
0.5
0.0 Oct No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED
The claimant count in Gloucestershire in October 2008 rose by 232 people. The amount of people claiming in October 2008 was 3.6% higher than the number in September 2008. The increase was 6% across the South West, and 2.7% for the UK.
GLOUCESTERSHIRE CLAIMANTS - MONTH ON MONTH AND YEAR ON YEAR CHANGE Claimant Rate % change 50.0% SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED 40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
-40.0%
-50.0% Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
% change on previous month % change on previous year
Continuing the trend of the early 1990’s recession, the number of claimants during the month of October has not exceeded those claiming during the month pf September, since 1990.
Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 3: October 2008 Gloucestershire, South West and UK claimants: October 2008 Consecutive Claimant Count in % Change on Average % increase over Area months October 2008 September 2008 the last six months increasing Cheltenham 1,647 2.8 3.1 7 Cotswolds 509 4.5 5.7 4 Forest 997 4.7 4.8 6 Gloucester 1,879 4.4 3.3 1 Stroud 908 4.8 4.6 1 Tewkesbury 699 -0.1 2.8 - Gloucestershire 6,639 3.6 3.8 7 South West 52,180 6.0 4.2 6 UK 970,279 2.7 2.6 6
The claimant count in Gloucestershire has been increasing for seven consecutive months, and stood 35% higher in October 2008 than at the same point the previous year. The change in the claimant count varied across Gloucestershire. Tewkesbury was the only district with a claimant count that was lower in October 2008, than in September 2008.
• In Cheltenham Borough the claimant count has increased each month since April 2008. This is the highest number of consecutive monthly increases in Gloucestershire. For the first time in two years, the Lansdown ward had a monthly claimant rate below the average for the district.
• In Cotswold District the claimant count in October 2008 was the highest for two years and has been increasing since July 2008. In addition, the claimant count in October 2008 was over 40% higher than it was in October 2007. The Beacon Stow ward was above the district average for claimants for the first time in five months.
• In the Forest of Dean District the claimant count in October 2008 was the highest since April 2007 and has been increasing since May 2008. The claimant count in the Awre ward increased by 0.4% between September 2008 and October 2008 and was above the district average for the first time in four months. In addition, the Pillowell ward had a claimant rate increase of 0.6% between September 2008 and October 2008, and was above the district average for claimants for the first time in over a year and a half.
• In Gloucester City the claimant count increased by 79 people between September 2008 and October 2008. This is in contrast to the decrease in claimants that occurred between August 2008 and September 2008.
• In Stroud District the claimant count increased by 42 people between September 2008 and October 2008. This is in contrast to the decrease in claimants that occurred between August 2008 and September 2008.
• Tewkesbury Borough was the only district where claimants decreased between September 2008 and October 2008, albeit very slight. The total; decrease was one claimant.
Service Implications
Although there is not a marked increase in the number of people unemployed since last month, the possibility of a worsening situation looms. This will inevitably impact across county wide services. Preparation both in terms of contingency arrangements as well as forward planning will be vital in addressing emerging client issues. Labour force planning may need to take account of a larger proportion of unemployed people. Contingency arrangements may need to address an increasing demand for example for free schools meals, health related issues and other social support. Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 3: October 2008 Contents
Part 1: UK, South West and Gloucestershire Indicators...... 1
Claimant Rate ...... 1 Claimant Count ...... 1 Claimant age breakdown ...... 2 Inflation ...... 3
Part 2: Gloucestershire and Local Authority District analysis...... 4
Claimant Rate and Claimant Count ...... 4
Part 3: Gloucestershire Local Authority District and Ward analysis ...... 6
Cheltenham Borough...... 6 Cheltenham Borough – Wards...... 7 Cotswold District ...... 8 Cotswold District – Wards...... 9 Forest of Dean District ...... 10 Forest of Dean District – Wards...... 11 Gloucester City ...... 12 Gloucester City – Wards...... 13 Stroud District ...... 14 Stroud District – Wards...... 15 Tewkesbury Borough...... 16 Tewkesbury Borough - Wards ...... 17
Part 4: Young People not in education, employment or training (NEET) 18
Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 3: October 2008
Part 1: UK, South West and Gloucestershire Indicators
Claimant Rate1
Figure 1
CLAIMANT RATE ACROSS GLOUCESTERSHIRE, THE SOUTH WEST AND THE UK OVER THE PAST YEAR Claimant Rate (%)
3.0
2.5
2.0 United Kingdom
South West 1.5 Gloucestershire 1.0
0.5
0.0 Oct No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED
Figure 1 shows the claimant rate for Gloucestershire at 1.9% in October 2008. The rate has remained slightly higher than the South West average over the past year, but persistently lower by approximately 0.5% against the UK average during the same period. October 2008 represented a 0.1% increase on the previous month.
Claimant Count2
Table 1: Analysis of UK, South West and Gloucestershire Claimant Counts
Average % increase Claimant Count in % change on Consecutive months Area over the last six October 2008 September3 2008 increasing months4
UK 970,279 2.7 2.6 6 South West 52,180 6.0 4.2 6 Gloucestershire 6,639 3.6 3.8 7
Table 1 shows that in October 2008, the number of claimants in Gloucestershire was 3.6% higher than the number in September 2008. This is comparable with UK and South West increases. The October 2008 increase was 1.2% higher than the increase between August 2008 and September 2008.
Figure 2 shows that the average growth in claimants in Gloucestershire for the six months to October 2008 was 3.8%. Although 1.2% higher than that of the UK average, Gloucestershire has been overtaken by the average for the South West region, where growth in claimants was 0.4% higher.
1 The Claimant Rate is the amount of claimants as a percentage of the working age population for the claimant group.
2 JSA Claimant Count records the number of people claiming Job Seeker’s Allowance (JSA) and National Insurance credits at Job Centre Plus Offices. This is not an official measure of unemployment, but is the only indicative statistical measure available for areas smaller than Local Authorities.
3 The difference between total claimants in October 2008 and September 2008 expressed as a percentage increase or decrease.
4 The average monthly rate at which the Claimant Count has been growing for the six months to October 2008
1 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 3: October 2008 The figures for the rate of growth in Gloucestershire compare unfavourably with figures for the six months to October 2007, where unemployment declined by minus 2.5%.
Figure 2 A VERA GE GROWTH IN CLA IMA NTS FOR THE SIX MONTHS TO OCTOBER 2008 SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED Average % change 5.0%
4.5% 4.2
4.0% 3.8
3.5%
3.0% 2.6 2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0% United Kingdom South West Gloucestershire
Claimant age breakdown
Figure 3 Figure 3 shows the Change in age breakdown of claimants in Gloucestershire: changing age August-October 1998 (outer ring) and August-October structure of 2008 (inner ring) claimants in Aged 16-19 Gloucestershire 9% between the Aged 20-24 periods August and October 1998, and Aged 25-29 August and October 11% 16% Aged 30-34 2008. The rings represent the 20% Aged 35-39 percentage each age group Aged 40-44 contributes to the 13% Aged 45-49 total group of 9% claimants. So for 15% Aged 50-54 example, in the period August to - Aged 55-59 October 1998, 16% 13% Aged 60 and of claimants were over aged 20-24
The doughnut pie helps to illustrate that the age structure is subtly changing compared with ten years ago. The exploded sections of the doughnut pie chart show these changes. For example, it appears that during August to October 2008, claimants aged 16-19 and 20-24 have increased as a proportion of all claimants compared to ten years ago. On the other hand, claimants in the 25-29 and 30-34 sections are decreasing compared to ten years ago.
These changes are mirrored in the South West region, and the UK.
2 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 3: October 2008
Inflation
Figure 4 INFLA TION OVER THE LA ST YEA R SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED Annual Increase (%) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Oct No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
CPI: consumer Price Index (excluding housing costs) RPI Retail Price Index (includes mortgage costs) RPIX: Retail Price Index (excludes mortgage costs) Government Target
Figure 4 shows the national level of inflation since October 2007. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI), which the Government use for their target measure, was 4.5 per cent in October 2008, down from 5.2 per cent in September 2008. The Retail Prices Index (RPI) was 4.2 per cent in October 2008, down from 5 per cent in September 2008. The Retail Prices Index excluding mortgage interest payments (RPIX) was 4.7 per cent in October 2008, down from 5.5 per cent in September 2008.
Downward pressures on inflation
• Transport costs - where the price of fuels and lubricants fell this year but rose last year. This was triggered by a sharp fall in the price of crude oil, and a drop in the average price of petrol and diesel. There was also a fall in the price of both air transport and sea transport.
• Food and non-alcoholic beverages. The effect came largely from the price of meat, which fell this year compared with a rise last year. There was a small downward effect from biscuits and a partially offsetting upward effect from the price of milk.
• Recreation and culture, where the effect came mainly from pre-recorded DVDs and computer games
• Miscellaneous goods and services where, overall, bank charges decreased and home delivery charges rose by less than last year
• Education services where the upward effect from increased tuition fees is less than the previous year
The main factors affecting the CPI also affected the RPI. Additionally, there was a large downward contribution from housing with the main effect coming from house depreciation, which is excluded from the CPI.
As an internationally comparable measure of inflation, the CPI shows that the UK inflation rate in October 2008, at 4.5 per cent, was above the provisional figure for the European Union as a whole of 3.7 per cent.
3 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 3: October 2008 Part 2: Gloucestershire and Local Authority District analysis
Claimant Rate and Claimant Count
Figure 5
CLAIMANT RATE (%) ACROSS GLOUCESTERSHIRE: OCTOBER 2008 SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED Claimant Rate (%) 3.0
2.5 Gloucestershire – 1.9% 2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5 2.3 1.0 1.9 2.6 1.3 1.5 0.0
m n r d a a e nh wold est ts f De c Strou lte o u Co he Glo C Tewkesbury Forest
Figure 5 shows the claimant rate for October 2008 in Gloucestershire. The Forest of Dean and Stroud increased by 0.1% in October 2008 versus the September 2008 figure, the remaining districts stayed at the same level as the previous month. This is partially due to the effects of rounding the figures, so the small increase in the number of claimants is not reflected in the overall claimant rate.
Figure 6
TOTAL CLAIMANTS OVER THE PAST TWO YEARS ACROSS GLOUCESTERSHIRE DISTRICTS SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED Number of claimants
7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 Cotswold 4,500 Tewkesbury 4,000 Stroud 3,500 3,000 For e s t of De a n 2,500 2,000 Cheltenham 1,500 1,000 Glo uc e s t e r 500 0 Oct No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
Figure 6 shows the overall claimant count for Gloucestershire over the past year. It demonstrates the gap that is widening across all the districts as the economy has moved towards recession. It can be seen that so far, the gap has been wider in the urban areas of Cheltenham and Gloucester.
4 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 3: October 2008
Table 2: Analysis of Gloucestershire and District Claimant Counts Consecutive Claimant Count in % Change on Average % increase over Area months October 2008 September 2008 the last six months increasing Cheltenham 1,647 2.8 3.1 7 Cotswolds 509 4.5 5.7 4 Forest 997 4.7 4.8 6 Gloucester 1,879 4.4 3.3 1 Stroud 908 4.8 4.6 1 Tewkesbury 699 -0.1 2.8 - Gloucestershire 6,639 3.6 3.8 7
Table 2 shows the change in the claimant count in October 2008 compared with September 2008. It is apparent that the October 2008 increase in Gloucestershire’s claimant count was fairly typical across the six districts, with only Tewkesbury Borough experiencing a small drop in claimants.
5 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 3: October 2008 Part 3: Gloucestershire Local Authority District and Ward analysis
Cheltenham Borough
Claimant Rate and Claimant Count
Figure 7
SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED CHELTENHA M CLA IMA NT RA TE OVER THE LA ST YEA R Claimant Rate (%)
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0 Oct No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
Figure 7 shows the claimant count in Cheltenham at its highest rate for over a year. The rate has been climbing for seven consecutive months.
Figure 8
CHELTENHAM CLAIMANTS - MONTH ON MONTH AND YEAR ON YEAR CHANGE SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED
Claimant Count % change 50.0%
40.0% 30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%
-30.0% -40.0%
-50.0% Oct No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
% change on previous month % change on previous year
The claimant count in Cheltenham Borough was 1,647 people in October 2008. Figure 8 shows the claimant count increasing each month since April 2008. In addition, claimant counts have increased every month on the same month the previous year since July 2008.
6 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 3: October 2008 Cheltenham Borough – Wards
Figure 9
CLAIMANT RATES ACROSS CHELTENHAM WARDS - OCTOBER 2008 SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED Claimant Rate (%) 8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0 Cheltenham – 2.3% 2.0
1.0
0.0
y k n le ill n s 's 's gs on r ts ' ey ay n ngs lage w n ul Park pt lege er kl W Ki Pa dow do Pa a m den H Vil Mark O on on Pittvil Col ha t lt ar All Sai St St ters Prestbur l don Lans St Pet pringbank Battle W n S Up Hatherley i Hes Leck Char Char Sw and The Reddi
Benhall
Figure 9 shows the claimant rates for Cheltenham Borough wards. The red line represents the average claimant rate across the Borough, with seven wards above the average.
Table 3: Analysis of Claimant Count at Cheltenham Ward level – October 2008 District Ward Rate Rank5 bottom 10% of county first quartile of county Cheltenham Benhall and The Reddings 1.0 37 second quartile of county Cheltenham Park 1.0 37 third quartile of county fourth quartile of county Cheltenham Prestbury 1.0 37 highest 10% of county Cheltenham Leckhampton 1.1 49 Cheltenham Charlton Kings 1.2 53 Cheltenham Charlton Park 1.2 53 Cheltenham Up Hatherley 1.2 53 Cheltenham Battledown 1.3 63 Cheltenham Pittville 1.5 73 Cheltenham Warden Hill 1.5 73 Cheltenham College 1.9 91 Cheltenham Swindon Village 2.2 99 Cheltenham Lansdown 2.3 104 Cheltenham All Saints 3.3 116 Cheltenham St Peter's 3.4 118 Cheltenham St Paul's 3.5 119 Cheltenham Springbank 3.9 125 Cheltenham St Mark's 4.0 126 Cheltenham Oakley 4.4 129 Cheltenham Hesters Way 5.7 133
Table 3 shows overall claimant counts for Cheltenham Borough wards, and their position relative to all wards in Gloucestershire. The Lansdown ward had a monthly claimant rate below the average for the district for the first time in two years during October 2008.
5 This is the relative position of the ward against all other wards in Gloucestershire. 1 = “best” and 134 = “worst”
7 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 3: October 2008 Part 3: Gloucestershire Local Authority District and Ward analysis
Cotswold District
Claimant Rate and Claimant Count
Figure 10
COTSWOLDS CLA IMA NT RA TE OVER THE LA ST YEA R SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED
Claimant Rate (%) 2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0 Oct No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
Figure 10 shows the claimant count in the Cotswolds at its highest rate for over a year. The rate has been increasing since June 2008.
Figure 11
COTSWOLDS CLAIMANTS - MONTH ON MONTH AND YEAR ON YEAR CHANGE SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED Claimant Count % change 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0% Oct No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
% change on previous month % change on previous year
The claimant count in Cotswold District was 509 people in October 2008, the highest for over two years. This was an increase of 4.5% on the September 2008 total. Figure 11 shows the claimant count increasing since July 2008. In addition, claimant counts are higher compared to the same month the previous year since July 2008. In October 2008, the claimant count was over 40% higher than it was in October 2007.
8 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 3: October 2008 Cotswold District – Wards
Figure 12
CLA IMA NT RA TES A CROSS COTSWOLDS WA RDS - OCTOBER 2008 SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED Claimant Rate (%)
8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0
4.0 3.0
2.0 Cotswolds – 1.0% 1.0 0.0 l y n d y k rth le ay el a on sh es ley eet o al e ater t h idge ton V Ermin irford Park ar Par r sm tew ngtons a r W er Aveningn F amp Block Tetburter hi H in-M ree Riversver ur issi Sandyw r Beec Chedw pney-Col Wate e Fosse Northleach Ri Ch R m n- Chest Th A Thames H o Beacon-Stow Grumbolds Ash Campden-Valeton-W -on-the- et rences ster at on or Ci M Str Cirencest nce Kempsford-Lechlade re er Bourt Ci Cirencester Watermoor
encest ir C
Figure 12 shows the claimant rate for the wards in Cotswold District. The red line represents the average claimant rate across the District. Nine wards are above the Cotswold District average.
Table 4: Analysis of Claimant Count at Cotswolds Ward level – October 2008 District Ward Rate Rank6 bottom 10% of county first quartile of county Cotswolds Grumbolds Ash 0.3 1 second quartile of county Cotswolds Three Rivers 0.3 1 third quartile of county fourth quartile of county Cotswolds Riversmeet 0.4 3 highest 10% of county Cotswolds Chedworth 0.5 4 Cotswolds Avening 0.6 7 Table 4 shows overall Cotswolds Churn Valley 0.6 7 claimant counts for Cotswolds Campden-Vale 0.7 12 Cotswold District wards, Cotswolds Cirencester Stratton-Whiteway 0.7 12 and their position relative Cotswolds Rissingtons 1 12 to all wards in Gloucestershire. Cotswolds Ampney-Coln 0.8 17
Cotswolds Ermin 0.8 17 Within the District, five Cotswolds Sandywell 0.8 17 wards frequently have Cotswolds Fairford 0.9 30 claimant rates above the Cotswolds Kempsford-Lechlade 0.9 30 district average. These are Cotswolds Thames Head 0.9 30 Watermoor, Fosseridge, Cotswolds Water Park 0.9 30 Park, Chesterton, Cotswolds Bourton-on-the-Water 1.0 37 Northleach and Tetbury. Cotswolds Hampton 1.0 37 Cotswolds Moreton-in-Marsh 1.0 37 The Beacon Stow ward Cotswolds Cirencester Beeches 1.1 49 was above the district Cotswolds Beacon-Stow 1.3 63 average for claimants for Cotswolds Blockley 1.3 63 the first time in five months. Cotswolds Tetbury 1.4 67 Cotswolds Cirencester Park 1.6 80 Cotswolds Fosseridge 1.6 80 Cotswolds Cirencester Chesterton 1.8 89 Cotswolds Northleach 2.0 94 Cotswolds Cirencester Watermoor 2.7 114
6 This is the relative position of the ward against all other wards in Gloucestershire. 1 = “best” and 134 = “worst”
9 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 3: October 2008 Part 3: Gloucestershire Local Authority District and Ward analysis
Forest of Dean District
Claimant Rate and Claimant Count
Figure 13
FOREST OF DEAN CLAIMANT RATE OVER THE LAST YEAR SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED
ClaimantClaimant Rate Rate (%) (%) 2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0 Oct No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
Figure 13 shows the claimant rate in the Forest of Dean at the highest point for over a year.
Figure 14 FOREST OF DEAN CLAIMANTS - MONTH ON MONTH AND YEAR ON YEAR CHANGE SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED ClaimantClaimant CountCount %% chanchanggee 50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
-40.0%
-50.0% Oct No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
% change on previous month % change on previous year
The claimant count in the Forest of Dean District was 997 people for October 2008, the highest amount since April 2007. Figure 14 shows that monthly claimant counts have been increasing since May 2008, and the claimant count compared to the same month the previous year has been higher since June 2008. The number of claimants in October 2008 exceeded that of October 2007 by almost 45%
10 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 3: October 2008 Forest of Dean District – Wards
Figure 15
CLAIMANT RATES ACROSS FOREST OF DEAN WARDS - OCTOBER 2008 SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED Claimant Rate (%) 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 Forest of Dean – 2.0% 2.0 1.0 0.0
ry ey m or al h re ill m st ley ury tr H ast r ... ean w ea E Ea pu ntl a b ckn d A r owell rt u aston st st i ry l entral enha ol berton B y Nort r B C ey rd H d dm o e b e t Cen e rybrookPil o Ha d Ti Ti Be D ford West Re ish en an d Longhope d St Briavels d Lydn derf er n d W nd W n nd W gl Lydn Coleford East n a a a an i am n an a n En New C m d o d Coleford Cind rch eld ha sdo fi n urt an hu ai b C Bl els yl rch w New NewlanA LittledeanLydbrook and Ruspidge and Ruar tcheldean e i H M Bromesberrow and Dymock stchu Oxenhall and Newent Northhri East lvington,C A
Figure 15 shows the claimant rate for Forest of Dean District wards. The red line represents the average claimant rate across the District, and ten wards are above this average
Table 5: Analysis of Claimant Count at Forest of Dean Ward level – October 2008 District Ward Rate Rank7 bottom 10% of county first quartile of county Forest Hartpury 0.6 7 second quartile of county Forest Churcham and Huntley 0.7 12 third quartile of county fourth quartile of county Forest Tidenham 0.7 12 highest 10% of county Forest Blaisdon and Longhope 0.8 17 Forest Bromesberrow and Dymock 0.8 17 Table 5 shows overall Forest Redmarley 0.9 30 claimant counts for the Forest Hewelsfield and Woolaston 1.0 37 Forest of Dean District Forest Newnham and Westbury 1.0 37 wards, and their position Forest Tibberton 1.0 37 relative to all wards in Forest Oxenhall and Newent North East 1.3 63 Gloucestershire.
Forest Newland and St Briavels 1.5 73 The claimant count in the Forest Alvington, Aylburton and West Lydney 1.7 86 Awre ward increased by Forest Christchurch and English Bicknor 1.7 86 0.4% between September Forest Newent Central 1.7 86 2008 and October 2008 Forest Lydney North 1.8 89 and was above the district Forest Littledean and Ruspidge 1.9 91 average for the first time in Forest Lydbrook and Ruardean 1.9 91 four months. Forest Awre 2.2 99 Forest Berry Hill 2.2 99 In addition, the Pillowell Forest Bream 2.2 99 ward had a claimant rate Forest Mitcheldean and Drybrook 2.3 104 increase of 0.6% between Forest Pillowell 2.5 109 September 2008 and Forest Coleford East 3.0 115 October 2008, and was Forest Coleford Central 3.3 116 above the district average Forest Lydney East 3.6 120 for claimants for the first Forest Cinderford East 3.7 121 time in over a year and a Forest Cinderford West 4.0 126 half.
7 This is the relative position of the ward against all other wards in Gloucestershire. 1 = “best” and 134 = “worst”
11 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 3: October 2008 Part 3: Gloucestershire Local Authority District and Ward analysis
Gloucester City
Claimant Rate and Claimant Count
Figure 16
GLOUCESTER CITY CLA IMA NT RA TE OVER THE LA ST YEA R SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED
Claimant Rate (%)
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0 Oct No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
Figure 16 shows the claimant rate at 2.6% for October 2008. Although there was an increase in claimants, this does not show up as an increase in the claimant rate due to the effect of rounding.
Figure 17
GLOUCESTER CLAIMANTS - MONTH ON MONTH AND YEAR ON YEAR CHANGE SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED
Claimant Count % change 50.0% 40.0%
30.0%
20.0% 10.0%
0.0% -10.0%
-20.0% -30.0%
-40.0% -50.0% Oct No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
% change on previous month % change on previous year
Gloucester City’s claimant count was 1,879 people in October 2008, a small increase of 73 claimants on the September 2008 count. Figure 17 shows the claimant count increasing since April 2008, before falling during September 2008, and then rising again in October 2008. Claimant counts have been up every month on the same month the previous year since May 2008, and the claimant count in October 2008 was 38% higher than it had been I October 2007.
12 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 3: October 2008 Gloucester City – Wards
Figure 18
CLAIMANT RATES ACROSS GLOUCESTER WARDS - OCTOBER 2008 SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED Claimant Rate (%) 8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0 Gloucester – 2.6%
2.0
1.0
0.0
e e y n d e ns ey e rt nd o od a t e b ng u ood a o e Vale w Ab lecote n uffl r Gra T orel e lmbridg arn insw edworth dsm v E B M b r o Westga Hucc e T P Longlev S and Wott Ro m d ley ol n e h a n and g s n d g rto e Quedgeley Fieldco so u t Ba Q Kin Ma
Figure 18 shows the claimant rate for Gloucester City wards. The red line represents the average claimant rate across the City and six of the wards are above the City average.
Table 6: Analysis of Claimant Count at Gloucester City Ward level – October 2008 District Ward Rate Rank8 bottom 10% of county first quartile of county Gloucester Longlevens 1.0 37 second quartile of county Gloucester Abbey 1.1 49 third quartile of county fourth quartile of county Gloucester Hucclecote 1.1 49 highest 10% of county Gloucester Quedgeley Severn Vale 1.2 53 Gloucester Elmbridge 1.4 67 Gloucester Grange 2.1 97 Gloucester Tuffley 2.1 97 Gloucester Quedgeley Fieldcourt 2.2 99 Gloucester Barnwood 2.4 108 Gloucester Moreland 3.8 124 Gloucester Kingsholm and Wotton 4.1 128 Gloucester Matson and Robinswood 4.5 130 Gloucester Barton and Tredworth 5.0 131 Gloucester Podsmead 5.0 131 Gloucester Westgate 7.5 134
Table 6 shows overall claimant counts for Gloucester City wards, and their position relative to all wards across Gloucestershire. There has been little change in the relative positions of these wards over the last two years, with high claimant rates observed in the same areas month by month. Of these areas; Westgate, Podsmead, Barton and Tredworth, Matson and Robinswood, Kingsholm and Wotton and Moreland have had claimant rates higher than the average for Gloucester City every month for at least the last two years.
8 This is the relative position of the ward against all other wards in Gloucestershire. 1 = “best” and 134 = “worst”
13 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 3: October 2008 Part 3: Gloucestershire Local Authority District and Ward analysis
Stroud District
Claimant Rate and Claimant Count
Figure 19
STROUD CLAIMANT RATE OVER THE LAST YEAR SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED
Claimant Rate (%)
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0 Sep Oct No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
Figure 19 shows the claimant rate for Stroud district. The claimant rate remains the highest it has been for over two years.
Figure 20 STROUD CLAIMANTS - MONTH ON MONTH AND YEAR ON YEAR CHANGE SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED Claimant Count % change 50.0% 40.0% 30.0%
20.0% 10.0%
0.0% -10.0% -20.0%
-30.0% -40.0%
-50.0% Oct No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
% change on previous month % change on previous year
The claimant count in Stroud District was 908 people in October 2008. This was an increase of 42 claimants on the September 2008 count. Figure 20 shows claimant counts rising since June 2008, before falling slightly in September 2008 and then increasing again in October 2008. In addition, figure 19 also shows that when compared to the same month one year previous, claimant counts have been up since July 2008, and the October 2008 claimant counts was 30% higher than it was during October 2007.
14 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 3: October 2008 Stroud District – Wards
Figure 21
CLAIMANT RATES ACROSS STROUD WARDS - OCTOBER 2008 SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED Claimant Rate (%) 8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0 Stroud – 1.4% 1.0
0.0
y d s h d n y s y y ey ck o s th st ss e de e i i gh r e lley isl w Vale d rupp lford pton init sl s ou kele land ouse anhill cro r Sla B an wo r Tr g s u Va gswo t anleys Sever e m EastTh m W am dwickeeh a n D Central S St B Cha Up r n i Pain in Leonard dbor ails Ca a o P K e o N Ca H Ca St Over StrouR St aley and Ul and Th on Co pt ton Minchinh hill and U m ing Wotton-under-Edge st Far a E Amberley and Woodchester
Figure 21 shows the claimant rates in Stroud District wards. The red line represents the average claimant rate across the District and eight of the wards are above the District average.
Table 7: Analysis of Claimant Count at Stroud District Ward level – October 2008 District Ward Rate Rank9 bottom 10% of county first quartile of county Stroud Bisley 0.3 1 second quartile of county Stroud Coaley and Uley 0.5 5 third quartile of county fourth quartile of county Stroud Painswick 0.7 12 highest 10% of county Stroud Kingswood 0.8 18 Stroud Upton St Leonards 0.8 18 Table 7 shows overall Stroud Vale 0.8 18 claimant counts for Stroud Stroud Eastington and Standish 0.9 30 District wards, and their Stroud The Stanleys 0.9 30 position relative to all Stroud Over Stroud 1.0 38 wards in Gloucestershire.
Stroud Rodborough 1.0 38 Cainscross, Dursley, Stroud Nailsworth 1.1 51 Valley, Slade and Central Stroud Severn 1.1 51 wards have all been above Stroud Amberley and Woodchester 1.2 57 the district average for at Stroud Berkeley 1.2 57 least the last two years. Stroud Cam East 1.2 57 Stroud Thrupp 1.2 57 Hardwicke has started to Stroud Wotton-under-Edge 1.2 57 experience higher rates of Stroud Chalford 1.3 69 claimants, and has been Stroud Uplands 1.3 69 above the District average Stroud Cam West 1.4 75 for the sixth month running, Stroud Minchinhampton 1.5 80 having spent the previous Stroud Trinity 1.5 80 18 months below the Stroud Hardwicke 1.6 87 district average. Stroud Stonehouse 1.7 92 Stroud Farmhill and Paganhill 1.9 98 Stroud Cainscross 2.1 104 Stroud Dursley 2.1 104 Stroud Valley 2.7 120 Stroud Slade 3.1 123 Stroud Central 3.7 129
9 This is the relative position of the ward against all other wards in Gloucestershire. 1 = “best” and 134 = “worst”
15 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 3: October 2008 Part 3: Gloucestershire Local Authority District and Ward analysis
Tewkesbury Borough
Claimant Rate and Claimant Count
Figure 22
TEWKESBURY BOROUGH CLAIMANT RATE OVER THE LAST YEAR SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED Claimant Rate (%)
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0 Oct No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
Figure 22 shows the claimant rate for Tewkesbury Borough over the past year.
Figure 22
TEWKESBURY CLA IMA NTS - MONTH ON MONTH A ND YEAR ON YEAR CHA NGE SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED Claimant Count % change 50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
-40.0%
-50.0% Oct No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
% change on previous month % change on previous year
The claimant count in Tewkesbury Borough was 699 people in October 2008. This was a drop of one claimant on the September 2008 figure. Claimant counts have been up every month compared to the same month the previous year since June 2008. The count in October 2008 was 28% higher than it was in October 2007. Although a considerable increase, the figure of 28% was the lowest yearly increase amongst Gloucestershire’s six districts.
16 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 3: October 2008 Tewkesbury Borough - Wards
Figure 23 CLAIMANT RATES ACROSS TEWKESBURY WARDS - OCTOBER 2008 SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED Claimant Rate (%) 8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0 4.0
3.0
2.0 Tewkesbury – 1.5% 1.0 0.0
l e f y n st e g if 's n w n eld in le ay n ge on rk Hil Hill r fi w t to n e n er n itto Pa v We ou Bridg worth y ard th ra ng w e e b e ok w C i M nto mbe Hill w T ath G d r's ev o Is ro St Joh e r e Cle Nor v y Ne le Ha Hucclecote lton n hu r Ox C Co Badg a w e Brockworth St Michael'sS with Prio wn H Winchcombe e n y ith own B W o do Cle r w d D h u esbu ith c ow b k th r T s rch w i u Cleev y e nam u h r k Tew h c w Ch u w Ch r b e u s T Hig orth ch w s wke n e Ash T In
Figure 23 shows the claimant rate for Tewkesbury Borough wards. The red line represents the average claimant rate across the Borough and seven of the wards are above the Borough average.
Table 8: Analysis of Claimant Count at Tewkesbury Borough Ward level – October 2008 District Ward Rate Rank10 bottom 10% of county first quartile of county Tewkesbury Tewkesbury Newtown 0.5 5 second quartile of county Tewkesbury Oxenton Hill 0.6 8 third quartile of county fourth quartile of county Tewkesbury Cleeve Hill 0.8 18 highest 10% of county Tewkesbury Cleeve West 0.8 18 Tewkesbury Coombe Hill 0.8 18 Table 8 shows overall Tewkesbury Isbourne 0.8 18 claimant counts for Tewkesbury Highnam with Haw Bridge 0.9 30 Tewkesbury Borough wards, Tewkesbury Hucclecote 1.0 38 and their position relative to all wards in the County. Tewkesbury Badgeworth 1.2 57
Tewkesbury Churchdown Brookfield 1.2 57 There are a number of Tewkesbury Twyning 1.2 57 wards, which have higher Tewkesbury Ashchurch with Walton Cardiff 1.4 75 levels of claimants within Tewkesbury Innsworth with Down Hatherley 1.4 75 Tewkesbury Borough month Tewkesbury Northway 1.5 80 on month. In particular, Tewkesbury Winchcombe 1.5 80 Prior’s Park, Tewkesbury Tewkesbury Churchdown St John's 1.6 87 town with Mitton, Tewkesbury Cleeve Grange 1.6 87 Shurdington and Brockworth Tewkesbury Brockworth 2.0 102 wards have all been above Tewkesbury Cleeve St Michael's 2.3 113 the Borough average for at Tewkesbury Shurdington 2.5 117 least the last two years. Tewkesbury Tewkesbury Town with Mitton 2.6 119 Tewkesbury Tewkesbury Prior's Park 3.7 129 In addition Cleeve Grange and Ashchurch with Down Hatherley have both been above the Borough average for the last year
10 This is the relative position of the ward against all other wards in Gloucestershire. 1 = “best” and 134 = “worst”
17 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 3: October 2008 Part 4: Young People not in education, employment or training (NEET)
Connexions Gloucestershire is required to report performance with the 16-18 age range against nationally defined criteria for counting the NEET group which includes young people actively seeking education, employment or training as well as those young people who are either not yet ready or who are unable to access these opportunities because of their personal circumstances. The figures quoted below include young people in both of these categories.
Summary
As at the end of October 2008 there were 838 young people aged 16-18 not in education, employment or training in Gloucestershire. This figure translates into an adjusted (*) 16-18 NEET population of 4.6%. This has increased from 3.8% at the end of September 2008 and analysis of our NEET group as at the end of October 2008 shows that the economic recession is already having a negative impact within the county. When comparing data from October 2007 and October 2008 we can reveal a 32% rate increase in the numbers of young people joining the NEET group which equates to an additional 100 young people.
Total NEET Group by District Area 31st October 2008
Cheltenham Cotswold Forest Gloucester Stroud Tewkesbury Total NEET Group 187 70 112 223 161 85 838(*) % NEET of total 16-18 6.7% 2.5% 3.7% 3.8% 4.8% 3.7% 4.6%(*) cohort
(*) Adjustment includes a proportion of young people aged 16-18 whose outcomes are not-known to Connexions Gloucestershire
Targeted action
Prospects Services Ltd who holds the contracts for both the Connexions service in Gloucestershire and the leadership and management of Gloucestershire’s Integrated Young Peoples Services is working closely with a range of key stakeholders to develop and implement action to support young people through this challenging and uncertain time.
Targeted action is being developed in key areas including;
• Ensuring cohesion of support for both adults and young people • Ensuring we have a flexible and responsive offer for NEET young people • Ensuring that young people who progress into learning are able to sustain it
If you would like to receive any further information on Gloucestershire’s NEET strategy then please contact [email protected] or telephone 01452 426900
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