PCF Resources Thermometer January 2019 Contents
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PCF Resources Thermometer January 2019 Contents SECTION PAGE Executive Summary 3 PCF Group 150 4 Consensus Commodity Price Forecasts 8 Gold Thermometer 9 Copper Thermometer 16 Nickel Thermometer 22 Zinc Thermometer 27 Iron Ore Thermometer 32 PCF Capital Group PCF Corporate Advisory MinesOnline.com FutureGold Liam Twigger Graeme Testar Mike Sperinck Garth Ziegler Managing Director Director Technical Director Manager • Public market takeovers • Structured debt and hybrid • Web-based platform • World first regulated crypto • Corporate mergers and funding connecting buyers and sellers asset backed by cash, gold acquisitions • Mezzanine, convertible and of mining projects royalties and gold streams • General corporate advice commodity loans • ~ 4,000 users from over 100 • To operate via a registered countries Managed Investment Scheme • Asset acquisitions and • Access to non bank funding divestment network • Unique E-Newsletter • Providing dynamic funding to promoting new projects advance gold projects towards • Equity capital raising • Development project finance • Unparalleled global production • Corporate restructuring • Debt sizing distribution capacity • Security token offering • Strategic and technical reviews • Cash and short term investment scheduled for Q1 2019 solutions • 40% + successful sales ratio • Indicative valuations • Financial models PCF Resources Thermometer 2 Executive Summary We are pleased to present the January 2019 edition of the PCF Resources Thermometer. At the close of 31 December 2018, the value of the PCF150 was A$417 billion, up ~A$21 billion or ~5% from November, and the value of the PCF150C was C$235 billion, up ~C$12 billion or ~5% from October. Over the course of the calendar year, the market value of the PCF150 increased marginally by ~A$1 billion. As at 31 December 2018, BHP and Rio Tinto accounted for ~39% and ~28% of the total market value of the PCF150 respectively, with the remaining 148 companies accounting for ~33%. Excluding BHP and Rio Tinto, the PCF150 lost ~A$4 billion or ~3% year on year. The performance1 of the PCF150 for the 2018 calendar year is demonstrated in the chart shown below: A$500B A$450B A$400B 133 133 130 123 124 126 128 116 120 115 A$350B 123 118 107 A$300B A$250B 173 177 151 155 153 159 169 169 175 163 164 A$200B 145 154 A$150B A$100B 142 146 141 137 145 147 148 144 138 142 140 135 138 A$50B A$0B Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb -1 8 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep -1 8 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 PCF150 excluding BHP & Rio Tinto BHP Rio Tinto SNAPSHOT • The market value of the PCF Group 150 at 31 December 2018 was A$417 billion, an increase of ~5% from last month’s value of A$396 billion. PCF Group 150 • The market value of the PCF Group 150C at 31 December 2018 was C$235 billion, an increase of ~5% from last month’s value of C$223 billion. • On average, gold producers were up about 6% for the month, whilst explorers and developers were flat month on month. Price • Copper companies were down about 9% for the month, while Nickel companies were down Performance ~6% for the month and Zinc companies down ~8% month on month. • Iron ore companies were down ~4% month on month. • Gold stock liquidity was down for the month at ~4%. Gold stock short positions were flat month on month, with ~1% of stock shorted. • Copper stock liquidity was flat for the month at ~2%. Copper stock short positions were flat for the month, with ~2% of stock shorted. Liquidity • Nickel stock liquidity for the month was about ~4%, down from last month. Nickel stock short & Short positions were flat for the month, with ~3% of stock shorted. Positions • Zinc stock liquidity for the month was about ~3%, down from last month. Zinc stock short positions were flat for the month, with ~1% of stock shorted. • Iron ore stock liquidity was down for the month at ~1%. Short positions on iron ore stocks were flat for the month at ~1%. • BCI Minerals Limited (ASX:BCI) (BCI) announced that it has completed the sale of its Kumina Notable Project (Kumina) to Mineral Resources Limited (ASX:MRL) (MinRes) for A$35M. BCI acquired Kumina in 2017 for less than A$9M, following which BCI undertook a modest 6-month Transactions exploration program to defined a JORC 2012 compliant Maiden Mineral Resource. PCF advised BCI on the sale of Kumina. 1. PCF150 values have been recalculated using updated S&P Global Data to ensure accurate tracking of market movements. As such, values may not match those from previous issues of the Resources Thermometer. PCF Resources Thermometer 3 PCF GROUP 150 Top 150 ASX Listed Resource Companies - 31 December 2018 By Market Capitalisation. Rank Mkt Cap (A$M) % Rank Mkt Cap (A$M) % Dec Nov Company 31-Dec-18 30-Nov-18 Change Dec Nov Company 31-Dec-18 30-Nov-18 Change 1 1 BHP Billiton Group (ASX:BHP) $163,908.3 $153,997.5 6.4% 51 41 Altura Mining Limited (ASX:AJM) $254.9 $364.1 (30.0%) 2 2 Rio Tinto Ltd. (ASX:RIO) $115,276.0 $106,982.5 7.8% 52 52 Stanmore Coal Limited (ASX:SMR) $252.8 $252.8 0.0% 3 4 South32 Limited (ASX:S32) $16,882.9 $15,706.7 7.5% 53 46 ioneer Limited (ASX:INR) $249.8 $338.0 (26.1%) 4 3 Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX:NCM) $16,723.2 $15,917.7 5.1% 54 59 Grange Resources Limited (ASX:GRR) $231.5 $214.1 8.1% 5 5 Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX:FMG) $12,926.3 $12,383.6 4.4% 55 58 Terramin Australia Limited (ASX:TZN) $224.4 $215.0 4.3% 6 6 Alumina Limited (ASX:AWC) $6,620.7 $6,419.2 3.1% 56 48 Tribune Resources Limited (ASX:TBR) $223.1 $291.6 (23.5%) 7 9 Evolution Mining Limited (ASX:EVN) $6,262.2 $5,328.8 17.5% 57 54 Metro Mining Limited (ASX:MMI) $221.5 $228.4 (3.0%) 8 7 Wash. H. S. Pattinson & Co Ltd (ASX:SOL) $5,958.5 $6,276.9 (5.1%) 58 60 West African Resources Limited (ASX:WAF) $215.9 $207.2 4.2% 9 10 Northern Star Resources Limited (ASX:NST) $5,908.6 $5,102.8 15.8% 59 55 Highfield Resources Limited (ASX:HFR) $212.5 $227.4 (6.5%) 10 8 Incitec Pivot Limited (ASX:IPL) $5,276.9 $6,088.6 (13.3%) 60 57 Tungsten Mining NL (ASX:TGN) $204.1 $218.7 (6.7%) 11 12 Yancoal Australia Limited (ASX:YAL) $5,176.1 $4,082.2 26.8% 61 61 Bathurst Resources Limited (ASX:BRL) $198.0 $206.7 (4.2%) 12 11 Whitehaven Coal Limited (ASX:WHC) $4,285.6 $4,226.0 1.4% 62 63 Danakali Limited (ASX:DNK) $195.7 $199.6 (2.0%) 13 13 Iluka Resources Limited (ASX:ILU) $3,218.5 $3,408.5 (5.6%) 63 68 Panoramic Resources Limited (ASX:PAN) $185.4 $174.3 6.4% 14 14 Coronado Global Resources Inc. (ASX:CRN) $2,957.5 $2,967.2 (0.3%) 64 64 Bellevue Gold Limited (ASX:BGL) $183.4 $199.1 (7.9%) 15 15 Mineral Resources Limited (ASX:MIN) $2,903.2 $2,861.9 1.4% 65 65 Magnis Resources Limited (ASX:MNS) $180.3 $189.5 (4.8%) 16 16 OZ Minerals Limited (ASX:OZL) $2,841.4 $2,796.2 1.6% 66 69 Tawana Resources NL (ASX:TAW) $179.2 $173.4 3.3% 17 17 New Hope Corporation Limited (ASX:NHC) $2,834.6 $2,784.7 1.8% 67 71 Universal Coal Plc (ASX:UNV) $175.0 $169.8 3.1% 18 18 St Barbara Limited (ASX:SBM) $2,464.2 $2,327.9 5.9% 68 70 Pantoro Limited (ASX:PNR) $171.7 $171.7 0.0% 19 20 Regis Resources Limited (ASX:RRL) $2,451.5 $2,150.9 14.0% 69 74 Aeon Metals Limited (ASX:AML) $164.5 $152.7 7.7% 20 21 Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited (ASX:SAR) $2,403.4 $2,026.1 18.6% 70 75 Cardinal Resources Limited (ASX:CDV) $163.5 $152.0 7.5% 21 19 Independence Group NL (ASX:IGO) $2,255.6 $2,243.8 0.5% 71 66 Sheffield Resources Limited (ASX:SFX) $163.5 $178.6 (8.5%) 22 22 Pilbara Minerals Limited (ASX:PLS) $1,090.3 $1,465.4 (25.6%) 72 81 Doray Minerals Limited (ASX:DRM) $163.0 $138.5 17.7% 23 27 Sandfire Resources NL (ASX:SFR) $1,065.9 $1,021.2 4.4% 73 51 Flinders Mines Limited (ASX:FMS) $153.3 $261.4 (41.3%) 24 23 Lynas Corporation Limited (ASX:LYC) $1,055.1 $1,397.9 (24.5%) 74 76 Millennium Minerals Limited (ASX:MOY) $143.0 $150.5 (5.0%) 25 26 OM Holdings Limited (ASX:OMH) $906.1 $1,024.0 (11.5%) 75 80 CI Resources Limited (ASX:CII) $136.4 $138.7 (1.7%) 26 25 Galaxy Resources Limited (ASX:GXY) $884.3 $1,100.3 (19.6%) 76 78 Heron Resources Limited (ASX:HRR) $135.3 $145.0 (6.7%) 27 28 Resolute Mining Limited (ASX:RSG) $874.9 $719.6 21.6% 77 77 AVZ Minerals Limited (ASX:AVZ) $130.3 $149.2 (12.7%) 28 24 Orocobre Limited (ASX:ORE) $844.8 $1,129.8 (25.2%) 78 67 Finders Resources Limited (ASX:FND) $130.1 $177.5 (26.7%) 29 29 Zimplats Holdings Limited (ASX:ZIM) $667.4 $670.6 (0.5%) 79 72 Argosy Minerals Limited (ASX:AGY) $129.3 $161.6 (20.0%) 30 32 Mount Gibson Iron Limited (ASX:MGX) $603.7 $575.5 4.9% 80 73 Energy Resources of Australia Ltd (ASX:ERA) $126.8 $155.3 (18.3%) 31 30 Aurelia Metals Limited (ASX:AMI) $590.2 $620.5 (4.9%) 81 86 Consolidated Tin Mines Limited (ASX:CSD) $126.8 $126.8 0.0% 32 35 Gold Road Resources Limited (ASX:GOR) $570.4 $548.4 4.0% 82 85 Neometals Limited (ASX:NMT) $125.1 $127.8 (2.1%) 33 38 Dacian Gold Limited (ASX:DCN) $562.4 $467.9 20.2% 83 82 Catalyst Metals Limited (ASX:CYL) $122.9 $134.8 (8.9%) 34 31 Western Areas Limited (ASX:WSA) $547.0 $596.2 (8.3%) 84 88 Rand Mining Limited (ASX:RND) $120.9 $117.3 3.1% 35 33 Syrah Resources Limited (ASX:SYR) $517.1 $560.1 (7.7%) 85 84 Agrimin Limited (ASX:AMN) $116.0 $128.0 (9.3%) 36 34 Jupiter Mines Limited (ASX:JMS) $489.7 $558.3 (12.3%) 86 102 Newfield Resources Limited (ASX:NWF) $113.4 $93.0 21.9% 37 37 Champion Iron Limited (ASX:CIA) $477.8 $527.7 (9.5%) 87 83 Hastings Technology Metals Ltd (ASX:HAS) $112.8 $132.3 (14.7%) 38 36 Kidman Resources Limited (ASX:KDR) $441.2 $535.4 (17.6%) 88 91 Poseidon Nickel Limited (ASX:POS) $111.0 $108.4 2.4% 39 42 Perseus Mining Limited (ASX:PRU) $434.7 $362.2 20.0% 89 113 Red 5 Limited (ASX:RED) $110.6 $86.9 27.3% 40 39 Atlas Iron Limited (ASX:AGO) $432.9 $432.9