Cochin Shipyard (CSL) Posted Dismal Q2FY21 Numbers As Travel Restrictions Led to Unavailability of Service Engineers for Trials

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Cochin Shipyard (CSL) Posted Dismal Q2FY21 Numbers As Travel Restrictions Led to Unavailability of Service Engineers for Trials CochinHO Shipyard (COCSHI) CMP: | 358 Target: | 435 (22% ) Target Period: 12-18 months BUY months November 24, 2020 Travel restrictions delay trials, execution impacted… Cochin Shipyard (CSL) posted dismal Q2FY21 numbers as travel restrictions led to unavailability of service engineers for trials. Overall margins were diluted on account of below par execution leading to negative operating leverage. Revenue for the quarter was at | 657.4 crore, down 32% YoY. Particulars Shipbuilding (SB) revenue fell 28.5% YoY to | 563.5 crore while shiprepair Particu lar Am o u n t (SR) segment contracted 14.3% YoY to | 93.8 crore in the quarter. On a Market Capitaliz ation* | 4472 Crore segmental profitability front, SB reported EBIT of | 122.5 crore whereas SR Total Debt (FY 20) | 123 Crore clocked an EBIT of | 25.68 crore. SB, SR segments contributed 85.7%, 14.3% Cash & Inv (FY 20) | 2176 crore Result Update Result to the topline, respectively. Although gross margins expanded ~335 bps EV (FY 20) | 2419 Crore largely on account of lower sub-contracting charges, negative operating Equity capital** | 131.5 Crore leverage led EBIDTA margin to contract ~200 bps YoY. Hence, EBIDTA Face value | 10 declined 39% YoY to | 125.8 crore, down 39% YoY. Ensuing PAT was at | 108.4 crore, down 48% YoY (vs. I-direct estimate of | 144.5 crore). For Price chart H1FY21, CSL generated CFO of | 1399.5 crore. High CFO generation was largely due to improved working capital. 700 12000 600 10000 IAC to go for basin trial on November 27… 500 8000 400 6000 300 Long expected IAC basin trials are on November 27 whereas delivery for the 4000 same is expected by December 2021. If things fall in place, as they should, 200 100 2000 we expect FY22E to be amplified on account of IAC execution. This should 0 0 aid management to reach their topline target of | 4000 crore. In the quarter, IAC execution was | 491 crore (cost plus | 283 crore, fixed price | 207 crore). Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Nov-17 Nov-18 Nov-19 Nov-20 Also, Phase 3 order book of IAC was at | 2244 crore. Cochin Shipyard New facilities, order pipeline to aid SB & SR in FY22E... NSE500 Index TEBMA & Hooghly CSL are expected to come online early next year opening Key Highlights up more avenues for SB, SR of smaller vessels. Further, we expect ISRF to Execution delay led by travel be operational in Q4FY22. Thus, CSL has ample capacity for execution but a restrictions led to unavailability of key monitorable would be the inflow of ship repair orders as the order book service engineers of ~| 500 crore provides visibility for less than a year. On the ship building Research Equity Retail order front, the management has shared prospects worth | 16000 crore from Management revises FY21E guidance – the Indian Navy & Coast Guard. Hence, taking cognisance of the above from | 3400 crore to | 3000 crore variables, we estimate CSL to post revenue CAGR of 8.8% in FY20-22E. Solid order book at | 13862 crore Valuation & Outlook Maintain BUY with revised target CSL continues to be one of the top-tier shipyards in the country with ample price of | 435/share capacity, capability & the orderbook to support it. Recent tie-up with Research Analyst Securities ICICI Fincantieri would help CSL gain technological inputs, design support & collaboration in high end/new gen defence vessels. Further, a solid order Chirag Shah book of | 13862 crore, healthy cash balance of | 1400 crore (ex-advances) [email protected] and robust order pipeline provides growth visibility for the company. A Adil Khan growing company, with high dividend pay-out & debt free b/s makes CSL an [email protected] attractive bet trading at 7.4x FY22E EPS. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock. We value CSL at 9x FY22E EPS and revise our target price to | 435. Key Financial Summary s s (| cro re ) FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E CAGR (FY20-22E) Revenues 2 ,355 2 ,962 3 ,422 2 ,985 4 ,048 8 .8 EBITDA 464 569 709 546 798 6 .0 EBITDA margins 1 9.7 1 9.2 2 0.7 1 8.3 1 9.7 Net Profit 396 478 638 435 636 ( 0.1) EPS (|) 2 9.2 3 6.3 4 8.5 3 3.1 4 8.4 P/E (x) 1 2.3 9 .9 7 .4 1 0.8 7 .4 Price / Book (x) 1 .5 1 .4 1 .3 1 .2 1 .1 EV/EBITDA (x) 3 .2 4 .0 3 .7 6 .7 5 .3 RoCE (% ) 1 3.4 1 9.0 1 7.6 1 2.8 1 5.9 RoE (% ) 1 2.2 1 4.5 1 7.1 1 1.1 1 4.7 s Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Result Update | Cochin Shipyard ICICI Direct Research EESes Exhibit 1: Variance analysis Q 2FY21 Q 2FY20 Yo Y (%) Q 1FY20 Q o Q (%) Shipbuilding and shiprepair segment contributed 85.7% Revenue 657.4 971.2 -32.3 735.4 -10.6 and 14.3% , respectively Other Income 45.3 80.1 -43.4 67.9 -33.3 Total Revenue 702.7 1051.3 -33.2 803.4 -12.5 Total Raw Material Costs 401.4 625.8 -35.9 488.8 -17.9 Decline in sub-contracting charges aided gross margins Employee Expenses 70.9 73.9 -4.1 70.4 0.8 Other expenses 36.8 39.9 -7.9 32.7 12.5 Provision for losses & exp. 22.5 25.9 -13.0 1.9 1097.3 Operating Profit (EBITDA) 125.8 205.7 -38.8 141.7 -11.3 EBITDA margin (% ) 19.1% 21.2% -204 bps 19.3% -14 bps Negative operating leverage impacted performance Interest 11.4 11.1 2.3 11.1 2.6 Depreciation 13.7 12.1 12.9 12.1 13.0 Total Tax 37.7 55.0 -31.4 66.2 -43.1 PA T 108.4 207.6 -47.8 120.3 -9.9 Key Metrics Q 2FY21 Q 2FY20 Yo Y (%) Q 1FY20 Q o Q (%) Revenue (Segment-wise) Shipbuilding 563.5 788.0 -28.5 602.1 -6.4 As a % of Sales 85.7% 81.1% 81.9% Shiprepair 93.8 183.2 -48.8 133.4 -29.6 As a % of Sales 14.3% 18.9% 18.1% EBIT (Segment-wise) Shipbuilding 122.5 175.2 -30.0 101.2 21.1 EBIT Margins(% ) 21.7% 22.2% 16.8% As a % of EBIT 77.8% 64.0% 51.2% Shiprepair 25.7 56.9 -54.8 41.2 -37.7 EBIT Margins (% ) 27.4% 31.1% 30.9% As a % of EBIT 16.3% 20.8% 20.9% Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 2: Change in estimates FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E (| Crore) A ctual A ctual O ld New % Change O ld New % Change Revenue 2962.2 3422.5 3284.7 2984.7 -9.1 3997.9 4048.3 1.3 EBITDA 569.2 709.3 601.1 546.2 -9.1 739.6 797.5 7.8 EBITDA Margin (% ) 19.2 20.7 18.3 18.3 0 bps 18.5 19.7 120 bps PA T 477.8 637.7 470.8 434.8 -7.7 580.8 636.4 9.6 EPS (|) 36.3 48.5 35.8 33.1 -7.7 44.2 48.4 9.6 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2 Result Update | Cochin Shipyard ICICI Direct Research Conference call takeaways – Q2FY21 CSL’s order backlog at | 13,862 crore Exhibit 3: CSL’s order book Total No of Sr.No . Current order book Balance orders V e s s e ls 1 Order from Indian Navy (IAC & ASW Corvette) 1 12062 2 Orders from GOI, MOS 4 555 3 Orders from GOI,MOD &MHA 10 308 4 Small passenger ferry (KMRL) & Others 30 437 5 Ship repair orders 500 To tal 13862 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Travel restrictions hindered final trials of vessels as service engineers were unavailable Revised guidance for FY21E revenues from | 3400 crore to | 3000 crore Ship repair revenue to double in three years Received ~ | 1500 crore from Indian Navy in the last quarter Revenue booked in Q2FY21 in ship building | 564 crore IAC 491 crore (cost plus | 283 crore, fixed price | 207 crore) Other 73 crore Target | 500-520 crore revenue from ship repair segment for FY21E Order pipeline Eight fast patrol vessels – Coast Guard Total 12 air cushion vessels – Coast Guard Six New Gen Missiles – Indian Navy Two multi-purpose vessels – Indian Navy Three Cadet Training vessels – Indian Navy Total pipeline worth | 16000 crore Capex guidance FY21: ISRF | 143 crore Dry Dock | 201 crore FY22: ISRF | 130 crore Dry Dock | 200 crore Tebma Shipyard: | 5 crore in FY21 and | 10 crore in FY22 ICICI Securities | Retail Research 3 Result Update | Cochin Shipyard ICICI Direct Research Major expansion update New large dry dock Dock: 310m x 75/60m x 13m and other allied facilities Estimate: | 1799 crore Target completion: December 2022 Construction of complex, technology intensive large vessels like LNG carriers, offshore drill ships, aircraft carriers, offshore rigs, semi-submersibles, etc Cumulative expenditure till date is | 585 crore Status Overall physical completion – 35% Labour shortage, disruption in material supply chains have severely affected execution Construction contractor, crane manufacturer, project management consultant, etc, had already intimated Force Majeure due to Covid- 19 Projected date of commissioning is targeted by December 31, 2022 International ship repair facility (ISRF) Ship lift: 130 m x 25 m x 6000 T with six workstations Estimate: | 970 crore Target completion: December 2021 Cumulative expenditure till date is | 466 crore Status Overall physical completion 73% Repair of 80 additional vessels a year.
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