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From Stress to Growth: Strengthening Asia's Financial Systems in a Post-Crisis World

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From Stress to Growth: Strengthening Asia's Financial Systems in a Post-Crisis World From Stress to Growth: From Strengthening Asia’s Financial From Stress Systems in a Post-Crisis World Stress ASIAN FINANCIAL SYSTEMS, which serve the most economically dynamic region of to Growth: the world, survived the global economic crisis of the last several years but remain well behind the global finance frontier. In From Stress to Growth: Strengthening Asia’s Financial Systems in a Post-Crisis to Strengthening Asia’s Financial World, scholars affiliated with the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the Asian Devel- opment Bank, and other institutions around the world, argue in separate essays that Asian systems must strengthen their quality, diversity, and resilience to future shocks in order to deliver growth in Growth coming years. The book examines issues such as the role of state-owned banks, the growth of non- Systems in a Post-Crisis World bank lending (so-called shadow banks), and the need to develop local capital markets and stronger supervisory tools to ensure stability. The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) large financial system is discussed at length, with emphasis on concerns that PRC’s system has grown too fast, that it is Marcus Noland and Donghyun Park, editors overly tilted toward corporate borrowing, and that state domination has led to overly easy credit to state-owned actors. Asia needs investment to improve its infrastructure and promote technological innovation, but the book argues that the region’s financial systems are inadequate in meeting that need and makes recommendations to address this challenge. • • • • • MARCUS NOLAND, executive vice president and director of studies, has been associated with the Peterson Institute for International Economics since 1985. From 2009 through 2012, he served as the Institute’s deputy director. He is also senior fellow at the East-West Center. He was previously a senior economist at the Council of Economic Advisers in the Executive Noland/Park Office of the President of the United States. His numerous publications includeConfronting the Curse: The Economics and Geopolitics of Natural Resource Governance (2014), Korea after Kim Jong-il (2004), and Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas (2000), for which he won the 2000–01 Ohira Me- morial Award. DONGHYUN PARK is principal economist at the Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department (ERCD) of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), which he joined in April 2007. Prior to joining ADB, he was a tenured associate professor of economics at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. His main research fields are international finance, international trade, and development eco- nomics. His research, which has been published extensively in journals and books, revolves around policy-oriented topics relevant for Asia’s long-term development, including the middle-income trap, Asia’s service sector development, and Asia’s financial development. Park plays a leading role in the production of the Asian Development Outlook, ADB’s annual flagship economic publication. USD $28.95 6 ADB Avenue Mandaluyong City 1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW 1550 Metro Manila, Washington, DC 20036-1903 Philippines (202) 328-9000 Fax (202) 328-5432 Tel +63 2 632 4444 www.piie.com Fax +63 2 636 24446 Cover Photography: © Ismagilov/Shutterstock www.adb.org Cover Design by Peggy Archambault A Copublication of the Asian Development Bank and Peterson Institute for International Economics Peterson_FROMSTRESSTOGROWTH_9.23.15.indd 1 9/23/15 10:18 AM From Stress to Growth: Strengthening Asia’s Financial Systems in a Post-Crisis World Marcus Noland and Donghyun Park, editors A Copublication of the Asian Development Bank and Peterson Institute for International Economics Washington, DC October 2015 Marcus Noland, executive vice president and PETERSON INSTITUTE FOR director of studies, has been associated with the INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS Peterson Institute for International Economics 1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW since 1985. From 2009 through 2012, he served Washington, DC 20036-1903 as the Institute’s deputy director. He is also (202) 328-9000 FAX: (202) 659-3225 senior fellow at the East-West Center. He was www.piie.com previously a senior economist at the Council of Economic Advisers in the Executive Office of the Adam S. Posen, President President of the United States. His numerous Steven R. Weisman, Vice President for Publications publications include Confronting the Curse: The and Communications Economics and Geopolitics of Natural Resource Gov- ernance (2014), Korea after Kim Jong-il (2004), and © 2015 Asian Development Bank. All rights Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas reserved. Published 2015. Requests for copyright (2000), for which he won the 2000–01 Ohira permission may be directed to: Asian Develop- Memorial Award. ment Bank Publishing and Dissemination Unit, Department of External Relations Donghyun Park is principal economist at the Economic Research and Regional Cooperation 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, Department (ERCD) of the Asian Development 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines Bank (ADB), which he joined in April 2007. Prior Fax: +63 2 636 2648 to joining ADB, he was a tenured associate pro- E-mail: [email protected] fessor of economics at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. His main research fields Printed in the United States of America are international finance, international trade, and 17 16 15 5 4 3 2 1 development economics. His research, which has been published extensively in journals and books, Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication revolves around policy-oriented topics relevant Data for Asia’s long-term development, including the From stress to growth : strengthening Asia’s middle-income trap, Asia’s service sector devel- financial systems in a post-crisis world / opment, and Asia’s financial development. Park Marcus Noland and Donghyun Park, editors. plays a leading role in the production of Asian pages cm Development Outlook, ADB’s flagship annual “June 2015.” economic publication. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-88132-699-4 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK 1. Finance—Asia. 2. Financial crises—Asia. 6 ADB Avenue 3. Asia—Economic conditions—21st century. Mandaluyong City I. Noland, Marcus, 1959– editor. II. Park, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines Donghyun, editor. Tel +63 2 632 4444 Fax + 63 2 636 2444 HG187.A2F76 2015 www.adb.org 332.095—dc23 2015001799 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country” in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. ADB encourages printing or copying information exclusively for personal and noncommercial use with proper acknowledgment of ADB. Users are restricted from reselling, redistributing, or creating derivative works for commercial purposes without the express, written consent of ADB. Note: In this publication, “$” refers to US dollars. ADB recognizes “Hong Kong” as Hong Kong, China and “Korea” as the Republic of Korea. This publication has been subjected to a prepublication peer review intended to ensure analytical quality. The views expressed are those of the authors. This publication is part of the overall program of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, as endorsed by its Board of Directors, but it does not necessarily reflect the views of individual members of the Board or of the Institute’s staff or management. The Peterson Institute for International Economics is a private nonpartisan, nonprofit institution for rigorous, intellectually open, and indepth study and discussion of international economic policy. Its purpose is to identify and analyze important issues to make globalization beneficial and sustainable for the people of the United States and the world, and then to develop and communicate practical new approaches for dealing with them. Its work is funded by a highly diverse group of philanthropic foundations, private corporations, and interested individuals, as well as income on its capital fund. About 35 percent of the Institute’s resources in its latest fiscal year were provided by contributors from outside the United States. A list of all financial supporters for the preceding four years is posted at http://piie.com/supporters.cfm. Contents Preface v Introduction 1 Marcus Noland and Donghyun Park 1 Financing Asia’s Growth 9 Gemma B. Estrada, Marcus Noland, Donghyun Park, and Arief Ramayandi 2 Financial Development, Financial Openness, 25 and Economic Growth Gemma B. Estrada, Donghyun Park, and Arief Ramayandi 3 The Financial Sector and Growth in Emerging 75 Asian Economies William R. Cline 4 Financial Development and Output Growth in 135 Developing Asia and Latin America: A Comparative Sectoral Analysis Joshua Aizenman, Yothin Jinjarak, and Donghyun Park 5 Financing Productivity- and Innovation-Led 177 Growth in Developing Asia: International Lessons and Policy Issues Ajai Chopra 6 Enhancing Financial Stability in Developing Asia 229 Adam S. Posen and Nicolas Véron 7 Banking Regulation in Asia 251 Michael J. Zamorski and Minsoo Lee 8 Bank Stress Tests and Financial Stability: 271 Lessons from the
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