MATEC Web of Conferences 258, 05033 (2019) https://doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/20192 5805033 SCESCM 20 18 Risk assessment for forest fire in Brunei Darussalam Shams Shahriar1,*, Zahran El-Said M. M. 2, Said Safwanah N. M. 1, Hui Kho J. 1, Lee Naderah N. D. H. M. F. 1, Hasim N. H. H.1 1Civil Engineering Programme Area, Universiti Teknologi Brunei, Jalan Tungku Link, Gadong, BE 1410, Brunei Darussalam 2Centre for Transport Research, Universiti Teknologi Brunei, Jalan Tungku Link, Gadong, BE 1410, Brunei Darussalam. Abstract. The rise in global warming triggered by climate change and increased slush and burn activities particularly in Indonesia has been a major concern for deteriorating air pollution in Borneo regions in last two decades. Brunei Darussalam is facing increasing fire risk particularly during the dry season (February to April) of the year. The study is an effort to focus on the recent rise of fire events in Brunei Darussalam as fires can tremendously downgrade the quality of the country’s well-known forestry; affect the economy and most importantly, health of the people. Geographical Information System (GIS) have been widely used by researchers to study fire risk assessment. The ArcGIS software is used for Optimized Hot Spot Analysis, Inversed Distance Weighted (IDW), and Kriging to compare and analyse the data and prepare a map for identifications of hotspot areas. High temperatures due to the El Niño phenomenon and low precipitation contribute greatly to the forest fire outbreaks. Results show that the Brunei-Muara district is mostly affected compared to Tutong and Belait districts. From the hotspots identified, the percentages of forest areas affected are 53%, 64%, 25% in Brunei-Muara, Tutong and Belait districts respectively. 1 Introduction exposure. Forest fire is mainly caused by anthropogenic activities or by natural cause. However, forest fires resulting from anthropogenic activities are one of the There has been increased air pollution in Borneo regions major causes resulting from arson or deliberate act and (Mostly Indonesia) due to slash and burn as a simple in some cases accidental fire due to negligence. method of clearing of forest for agricultural expansion Smoking, requirement for expansion of agricultural land, by the farming community. The situation is further activities like camping are some of the common causes aggravated with prolong dry season due to increased of forest fire resulting from anthropogenic activities. temperature with very little precipitation as a result of Countries like Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Colombia climate change. Brunei Darussalam rich in biodiversity often witness loss of forest cover due to slash and burn and tropical forest resources is increasingly more by the farmers for agricultural expansion. Indonesia vulnerable to fire risk during lean period. Therefore, the itself has been a victim of slash of burn with a forest area present study gives emphasis on indentifying the risk for of more than 261,000 ha in 2015 which lead to an increased number of forest fire in Brunei Darussalam as alarming rise to air pollution due to haze generated from fires can destroy the precious forest resources of the clearing of forest [1]. country, degrade the environmental quality particularly deteriorate air quality and cause significant economic loss in terms of property, infrastructure while impacting In fact, only a few percentage of forest fire is tourism and possess threat to human health as well as contributed by natural cause. Frequent dry lightning and ecosystem. further absence of precipitation, windy dry condition, prolong dry season are the causes of natural forest fires. The fire which occurs at forest and spreads very According to National Interagency Fire Centre, 12% of quickly is known as forest fire or wildfire. The fire the forest fires occur because of lightning [2]. Besides, usually occurs at forested area under rural or wild extreme hot weather and dry condition under the settings and rapidly spread from forest area to urban influence of El Niño leads to forest fire by removing fringes disrupting transport links, posing a serious threat moisture from the root zone of peat soil due to low to nearby urban infrastructure like residential houses, humidity under prolonged dry season [3] and exposing with residents are in great danger to potential fire * Corresponding author: [email protected] © The Authors, published by EDP Sciences. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). MATEC Web of Conferences 258, 05033 (2019) https://doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/20192 5805033 SCESCM 20 18 dry leaves and branches of trees highly susceptible to leading task in fire management [9-10]. This research forest fire [4]. focuses on the underlying causes of forest fire in the context of Brunei Darussalam. Many researchers have The parameters such as temperature, precipitation, used Geographical Information System (GIS) for forest humidity, wind, slope, vegetation cover and soil types fire risk assessment [11-12]. This study analyse the can greatly influence the intensity and spreading of fire incidents of forest fire data and creates forest fire map [5]. Therefore, it is important to have adequate with location of hotspot areas by using ArcGIS software. knowledge on those parameters to understand the fire risk assessment. Windy dry condition with steep slope, rapidly lead to quick spread of fire and burns large area 2 Countries Prone to Forest Fires of forest within a short time. Thus the fire fighters find it quite difficult to control forest fire under such condition An estimate by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate and falls victims of fire casualty. The increased Change (IPCC) shows that on an annual basis, 75-820 temperature also contributes to forest fire due to the heat billion hectares of land all over the world are burnt which is one of three components (Fuel, oxygen, heat) contributing to an average emission of 1.7–4.1 gigatons for fire and results into quick spreading of forest fire. of harmful greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the The dry grass, branches and leaves, peat soil which atmosphere [13]. In Africa, a major concern arises from consists of organic matters quickly warm up when burning of grasslands for the purpose of land clearing exposed to warmer climate and the root zone of the trees and to convert it to agricultural land. According to dries up with heat from the sun which makes fuels to African Forestry and Wildlife Commission, 9 million ignite and burn faster, a major reason of spreading fire acres of land has been lost annually in the northern part with lightning speed. Wind speed and its direction of Angola due to frequent incidents of forest fire [14]. which contributes to the continuous and abrupt supply of Even the Southern part of Europe such as countries like oxygen makes the fire more intense and uncontrollable France, Spain, Italy and Portugal known for tourism are burning hectares of forest cover at an alarming rate. The vulnerable to forest fire during summer of the each year situation further deteriorates while there is low humidity because of increased tourist and camping activities. An as the air comprises of low amount of water vapour incident of forest fire destroying land area of 5,000 consequently creating an environment for fire to start hectares [15] resulted into massive evacuations even in and spread faster. thousands both in France and Portugal. Strong winds followed by persistent dry weather conditions resulted One of the major concerns regarding the forest fire is into uncontrollable blazes in France’s Provence region that if the fire is not properly extinguished, it can easily recently. North American countries like California in get out of control taking heavy tolls on the surrounding USA and British Columbia in Canada have been affected environment which may persist for a number of days. In by the worst forest fire very recently. One of the largest the long run, the restoration of ecosystem, flora and forest fires in Canada was recorded in the year 2016- fauna and biodiversity is a great challenge once area is 2017 and considered as very costliest disaster. Many affected by forest fire. There is a potential of causing South American countries like Brazil, Bolivia, Chile imbalance in nature resulting from forest fire and it takes uses traditional technique of slash and burn for clearing even number of years for the nature to completely of lands for expansion of agricultural lands and human recover. Forest fire can result into the destruction of settlements. The situation becomes even more exotic plants and trees, a number of endangered habitats catastrophic during the drought season due to and wildlife in the Borneo region well known for its rich uncontrollable fire causing massive damage to forest biodiversity and can lead to a large scale of deforestation resources. More than 20 million hectares of land with an [6]. Peat forests fire which continues to burn underneath estimated economic loss of $15 billion were result of the ground comprising dry organic components can forest fire in the year 1997-1998, due to the worst El cause nutrient deficiency in soils making the land Niño [13]. The incidence of forest fire in Indonesia in unsuitable for growth of plants and trees and the land past two decades (1996 to 2016) has been in the news becomes barren. In fact, a number of cases of forest fires lime light. Neighbouring Southeast Asian countries such in Indonesia and Malaysia have led to harmful emission as Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Singapore, Cambodia, of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam are all victims of (N2O), carbon monoxide (CO) creating haze and thus haze and air pollution resulted from frequent forest fire.