Halofsky--1 Adapting to Climate Change at Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park Halofsky--2 Adapting to Climate Change at Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park Jessica E. Halofsky, David L. Peterson, Kathy A. O’Halloran, and Catherine Hawkins Hoffman Editors U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station Portland, Oregon General Technical Report PNW-GTR-xxxx Month year Editors J.E. Halofsky is a research ecologist, University of Washington, College of the Environment, School of Forest Resources, Box 352100, Seattle, WA 98195-2100; D.L. Peterson is a research biological scientist, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Laboratory, 400 N 34th St., Suite 201, Seattle, WA 98103; K.A. O’Halloran is the natural resources staff officer, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Olympic National Forest, 1835 Black Lake Blvd. SW, Olympia, WA 98512-5623; and C. Hawkins Hoffman is the Climate Change Adaptation Coordinator, National Park Service Natural Resource Program Center, 1201 Oakridge Dr., Halofsky--3 Fort Collins, CO 80525 (formerly Chief, Natural Resources Division, Olympic National Park, Port Angeles, WA). This work was performed under cooperative agreement PNW-06-CA-11261987-144. Halofsky--4 Abstract Halofsky, J.E.; Peterson, D.L.; O’Halloran, K.A.; Hawkins Hoffman, C., eds. 201x. Adapting to climate change at Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-xxx. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. Xxx p. Climate change presents a major challenge to natural resource managers both because of the magnitude of potential effects of climate change on ecosystem structure, processes, and function, and because of the uncertainty associated with those potential ecological effects. Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to counteract the negative effects of climate change. We began a climate change adaptation case study at Olympic National Forest (ONF) in partnership with Olympic National Park (ONP) to determine how to adapt management of federal lands on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington, to climate change. The case study began in the summer of 2008 and continued for 1½ years. The case study process involved science-based sensitivity assessments, review of management activities and constraints, and adaptation workshops in each of four focus areas (hydrology and roads, vegetation, wildlife, and fisheries). The process produced concrete adaptation options for ONF and ONP, and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessment and science- management workshops in adapting to climate change. The case study process provides an example for other national forests, national parks, and natural resource agencies of how two federal land management units can collaborate in the initial stages of climate change adaptation. Many of the ideas generated through this process can potentially be applied in other locations and in other agencies. Keywords: Adaptation, climate change, fish habitat management, hydrology, road management, science- management partnerships, vegetation management, wildlife habitat management. Halofsky--5 Summary In this report, we describe results of the Olympic Climate Change Case Study, a science-management collaboration initiated to develop climate change adaptation strategies and actions for Olympic National Forest (ONF) and Olympic National Park (ONP). The case study was one of three parallel climate change adaptation case studies on national forests and adjacent national parks in the Western United States as a part of a larger effort, the WestWide Climate Initiative. This initiative was created by scientists of the U.S. Forest Service to address the urgent need to communicate climate change information to land managers and work with them to develop adaptation options. For the Olympic Climate Change Case Study, we conducted a vulnerability assessment to facilitate development of adaptation strategies and actions for ONF and ONP. The first step in the vulnerability assessment process involved a review of available climate model projections to determine likely levels of exposure to climate change (degree of deviation in temperature and precipitation) on the Olympic Peninsula (chapter 3). In the next step, we reviewed relevant literature on effects of climate change and available projections to identify likely climate change sensitivities in each of four focus areas on the Olympic Peninsula, including hydrology and roads (chapter 4), fish (chapter 5), vegetation (chapter 6), and wildlife (chapter 7). We worked with regional scientists and specialists to interpret available information and apply it more directly to Olympic Peninsula ecosystems. Finally, we reviewed current management activities at ONF and ONP and identified management constraints to evaluate some aspects of institutional capacity to implement adaptive actions. Review of current management activities was done by focus area and is described in the chapter for each focus area. The vulnerability assessment process set the stage for development of adaptation options at the forest and park through science-management workshops (also described in the chapter for each focus area). The workshop format gave managers an open forum to brainstorm, express initial thoughts and ideas, and vet those ideas among peers. Direct engagement of scientists and managers in the workshop format fostered development of science-based adaptation strategies. During workshop discussions, managers Halofsky--6 identified general priority actions for adaptation, as well as priorities for species protection, habitat protection, and monitoring. Although interagency partnerships exist elsewhere to address specific natural resource issues, the Olympic Climate Change Case Study is an unprecedented example of U.S. Forest Service and National Park Service jointly planning for climate change adaptation. The case study process produced specific and tangible ways for ONF and ONP to incorporate climate change adaptation strategies into management. A key finding of the assessment was that the current general management at both ONF and ONP, with restoration as a primary goal, is consistent with managing for resilience to prepare ecosystems for a changing climate. However, the effort highlighted some potential issues related to climate change that challenge current precepts and management guidelines and helped to identify new potential actions and actions that could be increased and reprioritized. Climate change adaptation requires systematic monitoring and evaluation to detect changes and determine the success of adaptive management activities. Staying abreast of available information on potential climate change effects is essential to determine additional ways to incorporate climate change adaptation into management. Although further effort will be required, the case study described in this report was an essential first step for ONF, ONP, and other partners in preparing for climate change on the Olympic Peninsula. Halofsky--7 Contents Chapter 1—Introduction J.E. Halofsky, D.L. Peterson, K.A. O’Halloran, and C. Hawkins Hoffman References Chapter 2—Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park: Biogeographic Setting, Cultural History, and Policy Context J.E. Halofsky, K.A. O’Halloran, C. Hawkins Hoffman, D.L. Peterson, and J. Wray The Olympic Peninsula Cultural History of the Olympic Peninsula Olympic National Forest Olympic National Park Similarities in Management Between Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park References Chapter 3—Future Climate on the Olympic Peninsula: Forest-Relevant Climate Scenarios J.S. Littell Introduction Emissions Scenarios: A1B (moderate) and B1 (low) Pacific Northwest Future Regional Climate Climatic Downscaling: Winter Precipitation and Water Deficit Literature Cited Chapter 4—Climate Change, Hydrology, and Road Management at Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park J.E. Halofsky, W.S. Shelmerdine, R. Stoddard, R. Metzger, A.F. Hamlet, and C. Hawkins Hoffman Potential Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology on the Olympic Peninsula Halofsky--8 Temperature, Snowpack, and Timing of Streamflow Precipitation, Storm Intensity, and Flooding Road Management at Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park Road Management at Olympic National Forest Road Management at Olympic National Park Climate Change Adaptation Strategies and Action Items for Road Management at Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park Process Used to Develop Strategies and Action Items for Road Management at Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park General Adaptation Strategies for Road Management Adaptation Strategies for Road Management Planning and Prioritization at Olympic National Forest Adaptation Strategies for Road Operations and Maintenance at Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park Adaptation Strategies for Road Design Challenges and Opportunities in Climate Change Adaptation in Road Management Acknowledgments Literature Cited Chapter 5—Climate Change, Fish, and Fish Habitat Management at Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park N.J. Mantua, R. Metzger, P. Crain, S. Brenkman, and J.E. Halofsky Potential Climate Change Effects on Hydrology, Summer Stream