A New Approach to Quantitative Propagation of Chaos for Drift, Diffusion and Jump Processes Stéphane Mischler, Clément Mouhot, Bernt Wennberg
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Numerical Solution of Jump-Diffusion LIBOR Market Models
Finance Stochast. 7, 1–27 (2003) c Springer-Verlag 2003 Numerical solution of jump-diffusion LIBOR market models Paul Glasserman1, Nicolas Merener2 1 403 Uris Hall, Graduate School of Business, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA (e-mail: [email protected]) 2 Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA (e-mail: [email protected]) Abstract. This paper develops, analyzes, and tests computational procedures for the numerical solution of LIBOR market models with jumps. We consider, in par- ticular, a class of models in which jumps are driven by marked point processes with intensities that depend on the LIBOR rates themselves. While this formulation of- fers some attractive modeling features, it presents a challenge for computational work. As a first step, we therefore show how to reformulate a term structure model driven by marked point processes with suitably bounded state-dependent intensities into one driven by a Poisson random measure. This facilitates the development of discretization schemes because the Poisson random measure can be simulated with- out discretization error. Jumps in LIBOR rates are then thinned from the Poisson random measure using state-dependent thinning probabilities. Because of discon- tinuities inherent to the thinning process, this procedure falls outside the scope of existing convergence results; we provide some theoretical support for our method through a result establishing first and second order convergence of schemes that accommodates thinning but imposes stronger conditions on other problem data. The bias and computational efficiency of various schemes are compared through numerical experiments. Key words: Interest rate models, Monte Carlo simulation, market models, marked point processes JEL Classification: G13, E43 Mathematics Subject Classification (1991): 60G55, 60J75, 65C05, 90A09 The authors thank Professor Steve Kou for helpful comments and discussions. -
Superprocesses and Mckean-Vlasov Equations with Creation of Mass
Sup erpro cesses and McKean-Vlasov equations with creation of mass L. Overb eck Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley, 367, Evans Hall Berkeley, CA 94720, y U.S.A. Abstract Weak solutions of McKean-Vlasov equations with creation of mass are given in terms of sup erpro cesses. The solutions can b e approxi- mated by a sequence of non-interacting sup erpro cesses or by the mean- eld of multityp e sup erpro cesses with mean- eld interaction. The lat- ter approximation is asso ciated with a propagation of chaos statement for weakly interacting multityp e sup erpro cesses. Running title: Sup erpro cesses and McKean-Vlasov equations . 1 Intro duction Sup erpro cesses are useful in solving nonlinear partial di erential equation of 1+ the typ e f = f , 2 0; 1], cf. [Dy]. Wenowchange the p oint of view and showhowtheyprovide sto chastic solutions of nonlinear partial di erential Supp orted byanFellowship of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft. y On leave from the Universitat Bonn, Institut fur Angewandte Mathematik, Wegelerstr. 6, 53115 Bonn, Germany. 1 equation of McKean-Vlasovtyp e, i.e. wewant to nd weak solutions of d d 2 X X @ @ @ + d x; + bx; : 1.1 = a x; t i t t t t t ij t @t @x @x @x i j i i=1 i;j =1 d Aweak solution = 2 C [0;T];MIR satis es s Z 2 t X X @ @ a f = f + f + d f + b f ds: s ij s t 0 i s s @x @x @x 0 i j i Equation 1.1 generalizes McKean-Vlasov equations of twodi erenttyp es. -
A Switching Self-Exciting Jump Diffusion Process for Stock Prices Donatien Hainaut, Franck Moraux
A switching self-exciting jump diffusion process for stock prices Donatien Hainaut, Franck Moraux To cite this version: Donatien Hainaut, Franck Moraux. A switching self-exciting jump diffusion process for stock prices. Annals of Finance, Springer Verlag, 2019, 15 (2), pp.267-306. 10.1007/s10436-018-0340-5. halshs- 01909772 HAL Id: halshs-01909772 https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01909772 Submitted on 31 Oct 2018 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. A switching self-exciting jump diusion process for stock prices Donatien Hainaut∗ ISBA, Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium Franck Morauxy Univ. Rennes 1 and CREM May 25, 2018 Abstract This study proposes a new Markov switching process with clustering eects. In this approach, a hidden Markov chain with a nite number of states modulates the parameters of a self-excited jump process combined to a geometric Brownian motion. Each regime corresponds to a particular economic cycle determining the expected return, the diusion coecient and the long-run frequency of clustered jumps. We study rst the theoretical properties of this process and we propose a sequential Monte-Carlo method to lter the hidden state variables. -
Particle Filtering-Based Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Financial Parameter Estimation
View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Spiral - Imperial College Digital Repository Particle Filtering-based Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Financial Parameter Estimation Jinzhe Yang Binghuan Lin Wayne Luk Terence Nahar Imperial College & SWIP Techila Technologies Ltd Imperial College SWIP London & Edinburgh, UK Tampere University of Technology London, UK London, UK [email protected] Tampere, Finland [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Abstract—This paper presents a novel method for estimating result, which cannot meet runtime requirement in practice. In parameters of financial models with jump diffusions. It is a addition, high performance computing (HPC) technologies are Particle Filter based Maximum Likelihood Estimation process, still new to the finance industry. We provide a PF based MLE which uses particle streams to enable efficient evaluation of con- straints and weights. We also provide a CPU-FPGA collaborative solution to estimate parameters of jump diffusion models, and design for parameter estimation of Stochastic Volatility with we utilise HPC technology to speedup the estimation scheme Correlated and Contemporaneous Jumps model as a case study. so that it would be acceptable for practical use. The result is evaluated by comparing with a CPU and a cloud This paper presents the algorithm development, as well computing platform. We show 14 times speed up for the FPGA as the pipeline design solution in FPGA technology, of PF design compared with the CPU, and similar speedup but better convergence compared with an alternative parallelisation scheme based MLE for parameter estimation of Stochastic Volatility using Techila Middleware on a multi-CPU environment. -
Interacting Particle Systems MA4H3
Interacting particle systems MA4H3 Stefan Grosskinsky Warwick, 2009 These notes and other information about the course are available on http://www.warwick.ac.uk/˜masgav/teaching/ma4h3.html Contents Introduction 2 1 Basic theory3 1.1 Continuous time Markov chains and graphical representations..........3 1.2 Two basic IPS....................................6 1.3 Semigroups and generators.............................9 1.4 Stationary measures and reversibility........................ 13 2 The asymmetric simple exclusion process 18 2.1 Stationary measures and conserved quantities................... 18 2.2 Currents and conservation laws........................... 23 2.3 Hydrodynamics and the dynamic phase transition................. 26 2.4 Open boundaries and matrix product ansatz.................... 30 3 Zero-range processes 34 3.1 From ASEP to ZRPs................................ 34 3.2 Stationary measures................................. 36 3.3 Equivalence of ensembles and relative entropy................... 39 3.4 Phase separation and condensation......................... 43 4 The contact process 46 4.1 Mean field rate equations.............................. 46 4.2 Stochastic monotonicity and coupling....................... 48 4.3 Invariant measures and critical values....................... 51 d 4.4 Results for Λ = Z ................................. 54 1 Introduction Interacting particle systems (IPS) are models for complex phenomena involving a large number of interrelated components. Examples exist within all areas of natural and social sciences, such as traffic flow on highways, pedestrians or constituents of a cell, opinion dynamics, spread of epi- demics or fires, reaction diffusion systems, crystal surface growth, chemotaxis, financial markets... Mathematically the components are modeled as particles confined to a lattice or some discrete geometry. Their motion and interaction is governed by local rules. Often microscopic influences are not accesible in full detail and are modeled as effective noise with some postulated distribution. -
Interacting Stochastic Processes
Interacting stochastic processes Stefan Grosskinsky Warwick, 2009 These notes and other information about the course are available on go.warwick.ac.uk/SGrosskinsky/teaching/ma4h3.html Contents Introduction 2 1 Basic theory5 1.1 Markov processes..................................5 1.2 Continuous time Markov chains and graphical representations..........6 1.3 Three basic IPS................................... 10 1.4 Semigroups and generators............................. 13 1.5 Stationary measures and reversibility........................ 18 1.6 Simplified theory for Markov chains........................ 21 2 The asymmetric simple exclusion process 24 2.1 Stationary measures and conserved quantities................... 24 2.2 Symmetries and conservation laws......................... 27 2.3 Currents and conservation laws........................... 31 2.4 Hydrodynamics and the dynamic phase transition................. 35 2.5 *Open boundaries and matrix product ansatz.................... 39 3 Zero-range processes 44 3.1 From ASEP to ZRPs................................ 44 3.2 Stationary measures................................. 46 3.3 Equivalence of ensembles and relative entropy................... 50 3.4 Phase separation and condensation......................... 54 4 The contact process 57 4.1 Mean-field rate equations.............................. 57 4.2 Stochastic monotonicity and coupling....................... 59 4.3 Invariant measures and critical values....................... 62 d 4.4 Results for Λ = Z ................................. 65 -
Some Investigations on Feller Processes Generated by Pseudo- Differential Operators
_________________________________________________________________________Swansea University E-Theses Some investigations on Feller processes generated by pseudo- differential operators. Bottcher, Bjorn How to cite: _________________________________________________________________________ Bottcher, Bjorn (2004) Some investigations on Feller processes generated by pseudo-differential operators.. thesis, Swansea University. http://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa42541 Use policy: _________________________________________________________________________ This item is brought to you by Swansea University. Any person downloading material is agreeing to abide by the terms of the repository licence: copies of full text items may be used or reproduced in any format or medium, without prior permission for personal research or study, educational or non-commercial purposes only. The copyright for any work remains with the original author unless otherwise specified. The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holder. Permission for multiple reproductions should be obtained from the original author. Authors are personally responsible for adhering to copyright and publisher restrictions when uploading content to the repository. Please link to the metadata record in the Swansea University repository, Cronfa (link given in the citation reference above.) http://www.swansea.ac.uk/library/researchsupport/ris-support/ Some investigations on Feller processes generated by pseudo-differential operators Bjorn Bottcher Submitted to the University of Wales in fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of Wales Swansea May 2004 ProQuest Number: 10805290 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. -
An Infinite Hidden Markov Model with Similarity-Biased Transitions
An Infinite Hidden Markov Model With Similarity-Biased Transitions Colin Reimer Dawson 1 Chaofan Huang 1 Clayton T. Morrison 2 Abstract ing a “stick” off of the remaining weight according to a Beta (1; γ) distribution. The parameter γ > 0 is known We describe a generalization of the Hierarchical as the concentration parameter and governs how quickly Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP- the weights tend to decay, with large γ corresponding to HMM) which is able to encode prior informa- slow decay, and hence more weights needed before a given tion that state transitions are more likely be- cumulative weight is reached. This stick-breaking process tween “nearby” states. This is accomplished is denoted by GEM (Ewens, 1990; Sethuraman, 1994) for by defining a similarity function on the state Griffiths, Engen and McCloskey. We thus have a discrete space and scaling transition probabilities by pair- probability measure, G , with weights β at locations θ , wise similarities, thereby inducing correlations 0 j j j = 1; 2;::: , defined by among the transition distributions. We present an augmented data representation of the model i.i.d. θj ∼ H β ∼ GEM(γ): (1) as a Markov Jump Process in which: (1) some jump attempts fail, and (2) the probability of suc- G0 drawn in this way is a Dirichlet Process (DP) random cess is proportional to the similarity between the measure with concentration γ and base measure H. source and destination states. This augmenta- The actual transition distribution, πj, from state j, is drawn tion restores conditional conjugacy and admits a from another DP with concentration α and base measure simple Gibbs sampler. -
Solutions of L\'Evy-Driven Sdes with Unbounded Coefficients As Feller
Solutions of L´evy-driven SDEs with unbounded coefficients as Feller processes Franziska K¨uhn∗ Abstract Rd Rd×k Let (Lt)t≥0 be a k-dimensional L´evyprocess and σ ∶ → a continuous function such that the L´evy-driven stochastic differential equation (SDE) dXt = σ(Xt−) dLt;X0 ∼ µ has a unique weak solution. We show that the solution is a Feller process whose domain of the generator contains the smooth functions with compact support if, and only if, the L´evy measure ν of the driving L´evyprocess (Lt)t≥0 satisfies k SxS→∞ ν({y ∈ R ; Sσ(x)y + xS < r}) ÐÐÐ→ 0: This generalizes a result by Schilling & Schnurr [14] which states that the solution to the SDE has this property if σ is bounded. Keywords: Feller process, stochastic differential equation, unbounded coefficients. MSC 2010: Primary: 60J35. Secondary: 60H10, 60G51, 60J25, 60J75, 60G44. 1 Introduction Feller processes are a natural generalization of L´evyprocesses. They behave locally like L´evy processes, but { in contrast to L´evyprocesses { Feller processes are, in general, not homo- geneous in space. Although there are several techniques to prove existence results for Feller processes, many of them are restricted to Feller processes with bounded coefficients, i. e. they assume that the symbol is uniformly bounded with respect to the space variable x; see [2,3] for a survey on known results. In fact, there are only few Feller processes with unbounded coefficients which are well studied, including affine processes and the generalized Ornstein{ Uhlenbeck process, cf. [3, Example 1.3f),i)] and the references therein. -
Final Report (PDF)
Foundation of Stochastic Analysis Krzysztof Burdzy (University of Washington) Zhen-Qing Chen (University of Washington) Takashi Kumagai (Kyoto University) September 18-23, 2011 1 Scientific agenda of the conference Over the years, the foundations of stochastic analysis included various specific topics, such as the general theory of Markov processes, the general theory of stochastic integration, the theory of martingales, Malli- avin calculus, the martingale-problem approach to Markov processes, and the Dirichlet form approach to Markov processes. To create some focus for the very broad topic of the conference, we chose a few areas of concentration, including • Dirichlet forms • Analysis on fractals and percolation clusters • Jump type processes • Stochastic partial differential equations and measure-valued processes Dirichlet form theory provides a powerful tool that connects the probabilistic potential theory and ana- lytic potential theory. Recently Dirichlet forms found its use in effective study of fine properties of Markov processes on spaces with minimal smoothness, such as reflecting Brownian motion on non-smooth domains, Brownian motion and jump type processes on Euclidean spaces and fractals, and Markov processes on trees and graphs. It has been shown that Dirichlet form theory is an important tool in study of various invariance principles, such as the invariance principle for reflected Brownian motion on domains with non necessarily smooth boundaries and the invariance principle for Metropolis algorithm. Dirichlet form theory can also be used to study a certain type of SPDEs. Fractals are used as an approximation of disordered media. The analysis on fractals is motivated by the desire to understand properties of natural phenomena such as polymers, and growth of molds and crystals. -
A Course in Interacting Particle Systems
A Course in Interacting Particle Systems J.M. Swart January 14, 2020 arXiv:1703.10007v2 [math.PR] 13 Jan 2020 2 Contents 1 Introduction 7 1.1 General set-up . .7 1.2 The voter model . .9 1.3 The contact process . 11 1.4 Ising and Potts models . 14 1.5 Phase transitions . 17 1.6 Variations on the voter model . 20 1.7 Further models . 22 2 Continuous-time Markov chains 27 2.1 Poisson point sets . 27 2.2 Transition probabilities and generators . 30 2.3 Poisson construction of Markov processes . 31 2.4 Examples of Poisson representations . 33 3 The mean-field limit 35 3.1 Processes on the complete graph . 35 3.2 The mean-field limit of the Ising model . 36 3.3 Analysis of the mean-field model . 38 3.4 Functions of Markov processes . 42 3.5 The mean-field contact process . 47 3.6 The mean-field voter model . 49 3.7 Exercises . 51 4 Construction and ergodicity 53 4.1 Introduction . 53 4.2 Feller processes . 54 4.3 Poisson construction . 63 4.4 Generator construction . 72 4.5 Ergodicity . 79 4.6 Application to the Ising model . 81 4.7 Further results . 85 5 Monotonicity 89 5.1 The stochastic order . 89 5.2 The upper and lower invariant laws . 94 5.3 The contact process . 97 5.4 Other examples . 100 3 4 CONTENTS 5.5 Exercises . 101 6 Duality 105 6.1 Introduction . 105 6.2 Additive systems duality . 106 6.3 Cancellative systems duality . 113 6.4 Other dualities . -
Poisson Processes and Jump Diffusion Model
Mälardalen University MT 1410 Analytical Finance I Teacher: Jan Röman, IMA Seminar 2005-10-05 Poisson Processes and Jump Diffusion Model Authors: Ying Ni, Cecilia Isaksson 13/11/2005 Abstract Besides the Wiener process (Brownian motion), there’s an another stochastic process that is very useful in finance, the Poisson process. In a Jump diffusion model, the asset price has jumps superimposed upon the familiar geometric Brownian motion. The occurring of those jumps are modelled using a Poisson process. This paper introduces the definition and properties of Poisson process and thereafter the Jump diffusion process which consists two stochastic components, the “white noise” created by Wiener process and the jumps generated by Poisson processes. MT1410 Seminar Group: Cecilia Isaksson; Ying Ni - 1 - 13/11/2005 Table of contents 1. Introduction …..………………………………………………………………….3 2. Poisson Processes ……………………………………………………………….4 2.1 Lévy Processes, Wiener Processes & Poisson Processes ……………………….4 2.2 The Markov Property of Poisson Processes ……………………………………..6 2.2 Applications of Poisson Processes in Finance……………………………………..8 3. The Jump Diffusion Model …………………………………………………….9 3.1 The model…………………………………………………………………………..9 3.2 Practical problem………………………………………………………………….10 4. Conclusion ………………………………………………………………………11 5. References ………………………………………………………………………..12 MT1410 Seminar Group: Cecilia Isaksson; Ying Ni - 2 - 13/11/2005 1. Introduction In option pricing theory, the geometric Brownian Motion is the most frequently used model for the price dynamic of an underlying asset. However, it is argued that this model fails to capture properly the unexpected price changes, called jumps. Price jumps are important because they do exist in the market. A more realistic model should therefore also take jumps into account. Price jumps are in general infrequent events and therefore the number of those jumps can be modelled by a Poisson processes.