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Three Essays in Applied Microeconomics

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Three Essays in Applied Microeconomics UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA SAN DIEGO Three Essays in Applied Microeconomics A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Economics by Samuel Krumholz Committee in charge: Professor Josh Graff Zivin, Chair Professor Prashant Bharadwaj Professor Gordon Dahl Professor Zoltan Hajnal Professor Craig McIntosh Professor Karthik Muralidharan 2020 Copyright Samuel Krumholz, 2020 All rights reserved. The dissertation of Samuel Krumholz is approved, and it is acceptable in quality and form for publication on microfilm and electronically: Chair University of California San Diego 2020 iii DEDICATION I dedicate this dissertation to Akana. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Signature Page . iii Dedication . iv Table of Contents . v List of Figures . vii List of Tables . ix Acknowledgements . xii Vita ............................................. xv Abstract of the Dissertation . xvi Chapter 1 Property Taxation as Compensation for Local Externalities: Evidence from Large Plants . 1 1.1 Abstract . 2 1.2 Introduction . 2 1.3 Background . 7 1.3.1 Plant Siting . 8 1.3.2 Local Taxation of Plants . 9 1.3.3 School Finance Equalization . 11 1.4 Are Property Tax Payments from Large Capital Projects Valued by Local Homeowners? . 13 1.4.1 Data and Sample Selection . 13 1.4.2 Effects on School District Budgets and Property Taxes . 15 1.4.3 Effect of Plant Openings on Home Prices: Empirical Strategy 25 1.4.4 Effect of Plant Openings on Home Prices . 30 1.4.5 Valuation of Negative Externalities . 34 1.4.6 Implications of Home Price Analysis . 36 1.5 Effects of Constraining Local Property Tax Revenues on Industrial Development . 38 1.5.1 Data and Empirical Strategy . 38 1.5.2 Results . 44 1.6 Conclusion . 55 A.1 Tables and Figures . 76 A.2 ZTRAX Database . 112 A.3 Imputing Plant Value . 113 A.4 Identifying Reforms . 115 v Chapter 2 Enforcing Compliance: The Case of Automatic License Suspensions . 125 2.1 Abstract . 126 2.2 Introduction . 126 2.3 Background . 131 2.4 Theoretical Framework . 134 2.5 Policy Setting . 140 2.5.1 Background . 140 2.5.2 Data . 143 2.6 Effects of Automatic License Suspensions on Compliance and Pun- ishment Outcomes . 145 2.6.1 Empirical Strategy . 145 2.6.2 Validity of Regression Discontinuity Design . 148 2.6.3 Results . 149 2.7 Effects of Automatic Suspensions on Traffic Safety . 154 2.7.1 Empirical Strategy . 155 2.7.2 Results . 158 2.7.3 Mechanisms . 161 2.8 Conclusion . 163 B.1 Tables and Figures . 182 B.2 Vehicle Valuation Estimation . 196 Chapter 3 Litigation as a Policy Instrument: The Case of the New Source Review Litigation . 197 3.1 Abstract . 198 3.2 Introduction . 198 3.3 Policy Background . 202 3.4 Data and Empirical Strategy . 206 3.4.1 Empirical Strategy . 206 3.4.2 Data and Sample Selection . 214 3.5 Results . 215 3.5.1 Pollution . 215 3.5.2 Air Quality . 223 3.5.3 Mortality . 227 3.5.4 Settlement Incidence . 231 3.6 Conclusion . 236 C.1 Tables and Figures . 239 C.2 Alternative Empirical Specification Accounting for Potential Bias with Two-way fixed effects . 255 Chapter 4 Bibliography . 260 vi LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1: Effect of Opening on Taxable Value Per Student and Property Tax Rates . 58 Figure 1.2: Effect of Opening on Local Revenues/Student, Total Revenues/Student and Total Expenditure/Student . 59 Figure 1.3: Differences in Key Demographic Groups Before and After Openings . 60 Figure 1.4: Effect of Opening on Host-District Home Prices . 61 Figure 1.5: Effect of Opening on Nearby Home Prices . 62 Figure 1.6: Effect of School Finance Reform on Large Manufacturing Establishments and Manufacturing Employment . 63 Figure 1.7: Effect of School Finance Reform on Power Plant Openings . 64 Figure A.1: Utility Share of School District Tax Base by District Generation Level . 77 Figure A.2: Data Coverage of Property Tax Rates and Taxable Value . 78 Figure A.3: Opening of Non-Utility TRI Facilities . 78 Figure A.4: Estimated Tax Base Effect of Opening by Estimated Marginal Value of Tax Base in Opening State-Year . 79 Figure A.5: School Finance Reforms Geographic and Temporal Distribution . 79 Figure A.6: Effect of School Finance Reform on Ln County Population . 80 Figure A.7: Distribution of Treatment Effects by Reform State . 81 Figure A.8: Estimated Fiscal Impact . 114 Figure A.9: Correlation Between Qualitatively-Defined Reforms and Reforms Identified in Jackson, Johnson, and Persico (2014) . 117 Figure 2.1: Traffic Offense and Noncompliance Rates by Zip Code Poverty Level (Of- fenses between 2014-2016) . 167 Figure 2.2: Poverty Rate, License Suspensions and Driving with License Suspended Convictions . 168 Figure 2.3: Changes in Fine Repayment Caused by Changes in Consequences for Non- Payment ( fn) ................................. 168 Figure 2.4: No Change in Offender Composition or Case Attributes across Threshold . 169 Figure 2.5: Effect of Discontinuity on Outstanding FTAs: Traffic Misdemeanors and Infractions . 170 Figure 2.6: Effect of Suspension Policy on FTAs by Income . 171 Figure 2.7: Effect of Discontinuity on Fine Repayment: Traffic Misdemeanors . 171 Figure 2.8: Effect of Threat of License Suspension on Actual License Suspension . 172 Figure 2.9: Effect on Suspensions by Income . 173 Figure 2.10: Effect of New Law on License Misdemeanor Charges, Sentenced Jail Days and Fines by Zip Code Median Income . 174 Figure 2.11: Event Study: Effect on Average Age of Vehicles in Accident by Policy Regime175 Figure B.1: Driving With a Suspended Licenses by Month . 182 Figure B.2: Policy Timeline . 183 Figure B.3: Examination of Bias in Citation Matching Procedure . 183 vii Figure B.4: Number of Traffic Misdemeanor Cases (biweekly) and Traffic Infractions (monthly) Relative to Discontinuity . 184 Figure B.5: Changes in Charges, Fines and Sentenced Days by Court by Case Type . 185 Figure B.6: Effect of New Law on DWLS by Law Enforcement Agency Service Area Median Income . 186 Figure B.7: Effect of New Law on Total Misdemeanor Sentenced Jail Days and Fines by Zip Code Median Income . 187 Figure B.8: Correlation Between Ages of Vehicles in Accident . 188 Figure B.9: Changed in Annualized Probability of Various Offenses Around Suspension Date . 189 Figure 3.1: Plants Litigation Status and Total Penalties Paid by Year . 205 Figure 3.2: Effect of Settlement on Pollution and Output in Coal-Fired Power Plants . 216 Figure 3.3: Effect of Settlement on Utility Prices and Revenue . 233 Figure C.1: Effect of Settlement on Ambient Air Quality Near Coal-Fired Power Plants 239 Figure C.2: Effect of Settlement on Mortality Rate in Counties Nearby Coal-Fired Power Plants . 240 viii LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1: Effects of Plant Opening on District Tax Base and School Finance Outcomes 65 Table 1.2: Effects of Plant Opening on School Finance Outcomes by Revenue Source . 66 Table 1.3: Effects of Plant Opening on Debt and Expenditures by Type . 67 Table 1.4: Effects of Plant Opening on Home Prices . 68 Table 1.5: Effects of Plant Opening on Home Prices: Different Expected Tax Base Per Student Cut-Offs . 69 Table 1.6: Effects of Plant Opening on Nearby Home Prices: Spatial Difference-in- Differences . 70 Table 1.7: Differential Effects of Plant Opening on Key School Finance Variables by State Equalization Status . 71 Table 1.8: School Finance Reform and County School Revenue by Source: County Pairs Design . 72 Table 1.9: School Finance Reform and Manufacturing Presence: County Pairs Design 73 Table 1.10: School Finance Reform and Power Plants: County Pairs Design . 74 Table 1.11: School Finance Reform, Manufacturing Presence and Power Plants by Base- line Poverty . 75.
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