HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ADAPTATION STRATEGIES: THE CASE OF LUVUVHU RIVER CATCHMENT, LIMPOPO, SOUTH AFRICA Report to the Water Research Commission by JO Odiyo1, R Makungo1, TR Nkuna1 and H Chikoore2 1Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Venda 2Department of Geography and Environmental Studies North-West University WRC Report No 2771/1/20 ISBN 978-0-6392-0212-9 November 2020 Obtainable from Water Research Commission Private Bag X03 GEZINA, 0031
[email protected] or download from www.wrc.org.za DISCLAIMER This report has been reviewed by the Water Research Commission (WRC) and approved for publication. Approval does not signify that the contents necessarily reflect the views and policies of the WRC, nor does mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use © Water Research Commission Hydrological modelling, climate change impacts and adaptation options ¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯ EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ______________________________________________________________________________________ BACKGROUND The Limpopo basin is a semi-arid region of South Africa where rainfall patterns are highly variable, unpredictable and unreliable. The effects of the remote El Nino phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are significant in the northeast of South Africa resulting in frequent drought. In all South Africa, this region is the most vulnerable to land falling tropical cyclones from the southwest Indian Ocean and the Mozambique Channel. Several modelling studies have found a significant future climate change signal in Limpopo. Whilst rainfall is enhanced in the upper Luvuvhu River Catchment due to orographic effects, a key question is whether this pattern will be altered under climate change.