October 21, 2019

www.ekospolitics.ca EKOS Seat Projection:

Special thanks go to Earl Washburn who was the principal investigator in creating this seat forecast.

[Ottawa – October 21, 2019] With just hours to go until the polls close, EKOS is offering a seat projection based on what we believe to be perhaps the strongest riding prediction model extant at this time. We have been constantly refining our model which is populated with more than 100,000 cases we have collected since January. We have made a number of qualitative adjustments based on each riding’s history and candidates.

Our final projected seat tallies are as follows:

LPC CPC NDP BQ GP PPC IND 158 117 31 28 3 0 1

Riding-by-riding forecasts:

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR FORECAST Avalon LIBERAL Bonavista—Burin—Trinity LIBERAL Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame LIBERAL Labrador LIBERAL Long Range Mountains LIBERAL St. John’s East NDP St. John’s South—Mount Pearl LIBERAL

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND FORECAST Cardigan LIBERAL Charlottetown LIBERAL Egmont LIBERAL Malpeque LIBERAL

NOVA SCOTIA FORECAST Cape Breton—Canso LIBERAL Central Nova LIBERAL Cumberland—Colchester LIBERAL Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LIBERAL Halifax LIBERAL Halifax West LIBERAL Kings—Hants LIBERAL Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook LIBERAL South Shore—St. Margarets LIBERAL Sydney—Victoria LIBERAL West Nova LIBERAL

NEW BRUNSWICK FORECAST Acadie—Bathurst LIBERAL Beauséjour LIBERAL Fredericton LIBERAL Fundy Royal CONSERVATIVE Madawaska—Restigouche LIBERAL Miramichi—Grand Lake LIBERAL Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe LIBERAL New Brunswick Southwest CONSERVATIVE Saint John—Rothesay LIBERAL Tobique—Mactaquac CONSERVATIVE

QUEBEC FORECAST Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou BQ Abitibi—Témiscamingue BQ Ahuntsic-Cartierville LIBERAL Alfred-Pellan LIBERAL Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation LIBERAL Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia BQ Beauce CONSERVATIVE Beauport–Côte-de-Beaupré–Île d'Orléans–Charlevoix CONSERVATIVE Beauport—Limoilou CONSERVATIVE Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel BQ Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CONSERVATIVE Beloeil—Chambly BQ Berthier—Maskinongé NDP Bourassa LIBERAL Brome—Missisquoi LIBERAL Brossard—Saint-Lambert LIBERAL Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CONSERVATIVE Châteauguay—Lacolle BQ Chicoutimi—Le Fjord CONSERVATIVE Compton—Stanstead LIBERAL Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LIBERAL Drummond BQ Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LIBERAL Gatineau LIBERAL Hochelaga BQ Honoré-Mercier LIBERAL Hull—Aylmer LIBERAL Joliette BQ Jonquière BQ La Pointe-de-l'Île BQ La Prairie LIBERAL Lac-Saint-Jean LIBERAL Lac-Saint-Louis LIBERAL LaSalle–Émard–Verdun LIBERAL Laurentides—Labelle BQ Laurier—Sainte-Marie BQ Laval—Les Îles LIBERAL Lévis—Lotbinière CONSERVATIVE Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne LIBERAL

Longueuil—Saint-Hubert BQ Louis-Hébert LIBERAL Louis-Saint-Laurent CONSERVATIVE Manicouagan BQ Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LIBERAL Mégantic—L'Érable CONSERVATIVE Mirabel BQ Montarville BQ Montcalm BQ Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup CONSERVATIVE Mount Royal LIBERAL Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LIBERAL Outremont LIBERAL Papineau LIBERAL Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères BQ Pierrefonds—Dollard LIBERAL Pontiac LIBERAL Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CONSERVATIVE Québec LIBERAL Repentigny BQ Richmond—Arthabaska CONSERVATIVE Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques NDP Rivière-des-Mille-Îles BQ Rivière-du-Nord BQ Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot BQ Saint-Jean BQ Saint-Laurent LIBERAL Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LIBERAL Saint-Maurice—Champlain BQ Salaberry—Suroît BQ Shefford LIBERAL Sherbrooke NDP Terrebonne BQ Thérèse-De Blainville BQ Trois-Rivières CONSERVATIVE Vaudreuil—Soulanges LIBERAL Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Sœurs LIBERAL Vimy LIBERAL

ONTARIO FORECAST Ajax LIBERAL Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing NDP Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill LIBERAL Barrie—Innisfil CONSERVATIVE Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte LIBERAL Bay of Quinte LIBERAL Beaches—East York LIBERAL Brampton Centre LIBERAL Brampton East NDP Brampton North LIBERAL Brampton South LIBERAL Brampton West LIBERAL Brantford–Brant CONSERVATIVE Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CONSERVATIVE Burlington LIBERAL Cambridge LIBERAL Carleton CONSERVATIVE Chatham-Kent—Leamington CONSERVATIVE Davenport NDP Don Valley East LIBERAL Don Valley North LIBERAL Don Valley West LIBERAL Dufferin—Caledon CONSERVATIVE Durham CONSERVATIVE Eglinton—Lawrence LIBERAL Elgin—Middlesex—London CONSERVATIVE Essex CONSERVATIVE Etobicoke Centre LIBERAL Etobicoke North LIBERAL Etobicoke—Lakeshore LIBERAL Flamborough—Glanbrook CONSERVATIVE Glengarry—Prescott—Russell LIBERAL Guelph LIBERAL Haldimand—Norfolk CONSERVATIVE Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock CONSERVATIVE Hamilton Centre NDP Hamilton East—Stoney Creek LIBERAL Hamilton Mountain NDP Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas LIBERAL

Hastings—Lennox and Addington CONSERVATIVE Humber River–Black Creek LIBERAL Huron—Bruce CONSERVATIVE Kanata—Carleton CONSERVATIVE Kenora CONSERVATIVE King—Vaughan LIBERAL Kingston and the Islands LIBERAL Kitchener Centre LIBERAL Kitchener South—Hespeler LIBERAL Kitchener—Conestoga CONSERVATIVE Lambton—Kent—Middlesex CONSERVATIVE Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston CONSERVATIVE Leeds–Grenville–Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CONSERVATIVE London North Centre LIBERAL London West LIBERAL London—Fanshawe NDP Markham—Stouffville LIBERAL Markham—Thornhill LIBERAL Markham—Unionville CONSERVATIVE Milton LIBERAL Mississauga Centre LIBERAL Mississauga East–Cooksville LIBERAL Mississauga—Erin Mills LIBERAL Mississauga—Lakeshore LIBERAL Mississauga—Malton LIBERAL Mississauga—Streetsville LIBERAL Nepean LIBERAL Newmarket—Aurora LIBERAL Niagara Centre LIBERAL Niagara Falls CONSERVATIVE Niagara West CONSERVATIVE Nickel Belt NDP Nipissing—Timiskaming LIBERAL Northumberland–Peterborough South LIBERAL Oakville LIBERAL Oakville North—Burlington LIBERAL Orléans LIBERAL Oshawa CONSERVATIVE Ottawa Centre NDP Ottawa South LIBERAL Ottawa West—Nepean LIBERAL

Ottawa—Vanier LIBERAL Oxford CONSERVATIVE Parkdale—High Park LIBERAL Parry Sound—Muskoka CONSERVATIVE Perth—Wellington CONSERVATIVE Peterborough–Kawartha LIBERAL Pickering—Uxbridge LIBERAL Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke CONSERVATIVE Richmond Hill LIBERAL Sarnia—Lambton CONSERVATIVE Sault Ste. Marie LIBERAL Scarborough Centre LIBERAL Scarborough North LIBERAL Scarborough Southwest LIBERAL Scarborough—Agincourt LIBERAL Scarborough—Guildwood LIBERAL Scarborough—Rouge Park LIBERAL Simcoe North CONSERVATIVE Simcoe—Grey CONSERVATIVE Spadina—Fort York LIBERAL St. Catharines LIBERAL Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry CONSERVATIVE Sudbury LIBERAL Thornhill CONSERVATIVE Thunder Bay—Rainy River LIBERAL Thunder Bay—Superior North LIBERAL Timmins—James Bay NDP Toronto Centre LIBERAL Toronto–St. Paul's LIBERAL Toronto—Danforth NDP University—Rosedale LIBERAL Vaughan—Woodbridge LIBERAL Waterloo LIBERAL Wellington—Halton Hills CONSERVATIVE Whitby LIBERAL Willowdale LIBERAL Windsor West NDP Windsor—Tecumseh NDP York Centre LIBERAL York South—Weston LIBERAL York—Simcoe CONSERVATIVE

MANITOBA FORECAST Brandon—Souris CONSERVATIVE Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley LIBERAL Churchill—Keewatinook Aski NDP Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa CONSERVATIVE Elmwood—Transcona NDP Kildonan—St. Paul CONSERVATIVE Portage—Lisgar CONSERVATIVE Provencher CONSERVATIVE Saint Boniface—Saint Vital LIBERAL Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CONSERVATIVE Winnipeg Centre NDP Winnipeg North LIBERAL Winnipeg South LIBERAL Winnipeg South Centre LIBERAL

SASKATCHEWAN FORECAST Battlefords—Lloydminster CONSERVATIVE Cypress Hills—Grasslands CONSERVATIVE Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River CONSERVATIVE Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek CONSERVATIVE Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CONSERVATIVE Prince Albert CONSERVATIVE Regina—Lewvan CONSERVATIVE Regina—Qu'Appelle CONSERVATIVE Regina—Wascana LIBERAL Saskatoon—Grasswood CONSERVATIVE Saskatoon—University CONSERVATIVE Saskatoon West NDP Souris—Moose Mountain CONSERVATIVE Yorkton—Melville CONSERVATIVE

ALBERTA FORECAST Banff—Airdrie CONSERVATIVE Battle River—Crowfoot CONSERVATIVE Bow River CONSERVATIVE Calgary Centre CONSERVATIVE Calgary Confederation CONSERVATIVE Calgary Forest Lawn CONSERVATIVE Calgary Heritage CONSERVATIVE Calgary Midnapore CONSERVATIVE Calgary Nose Hill CONSERVATIVE Calgary Rocky Ridge CONSERVATIVE Calgary Shepard CONSERVATIVE Calgary Signal Hill CONSERVATIVE Calgary Skyview CONSERVATIVE Edmonton Centre LIBERAL Edmonton Griesbach CONSERVATIVE Edmonton Manning CONSERVATIVE Edmonton Mill Woods CONSERVATIVE Edmonton Riverbend CONSERVATIVE Edmonton Strathcona NDP Edmonton West CONSERVATIVE Edmonton—Wetaskiwin CONSERVATIVE Foothills CONSERVATIVE Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CONSERVATIVE Grande Prairie–Mackenzie CONSERVATIVE Lakeland CONSERVATIVE Lethbridge CONSERVATIVE Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner CONSERVATIVE Peace River—Westlock CONSERVATIVE Red Deer—Mountain View CONSERVATIVE Red Deer–Lacombe CONSERVATIVE St. Albert—Edmonton CONSERVATIVE Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CONSERVATIVE Sturgeon River–Parkland CONSERVATIVE Yellowhead CONSERVATIVE

BRITISH COLUMBIA FORECAST Abbotsford CONSERVATIVE Burnaby North—Seymour LIBERAL Burnaby South NDP Cariboo—Prince George CONSERVATIVE Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola CONSERVATIVE Chilliwack—Hope CONSERVATIVE Cloverdale—Langley City LIBERAL Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam LIBERAL Courtenay—Alberni CONSERVATIVE Cowichan—Malahat—Langford NDP Delta LIBERAL Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke NDP Fleetwood—Port Kells LIBERAL Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo CONSERVATIVE Kelowna—Lake Country CONSERVATIVE Kootenay—Columbia CONSERVATIVE Langley—Aldergrove CONSERVATIVE Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon CONSERVATIVE Nanaimo—Ladysmith GREEN New Westminster—Burnaby NDP North Island–Powell River NDP North Okanagan—Shuswap CONSERVATIVE North Vancouver LIBERAL Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge LIBERAL Port Moody—Coquitlam NDP Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CONSERVATIVE Richmond Centre CONSERVATIVE Saanich—Gulf Islands GREEN Skeena—Bulkley Valley NDP South Okanagan—West Kootenay CONSERVATIVE South Surrey—White Rock CONSERVATIVE Steveston—Richmond East CONSERVATIVE Surrey Centre LIBERAL Surrey—Newton LIBERAL Vancouver Centre LIBERAL Vancouver East NDP Vancouver Granville INDEPENDENT Vancouver Kingsway NDP Vancouver Quadra LIBERAL

Vancouver South LIBERAL Victoria GREEN West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country LIBERAL

TERRITORIES FORECAST Yukon LIBERAL Northwest Territories LIBERAL Nunavut LIBERAL