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Understanding Climate Change

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Understanding Climate Change UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE CHANGE A REPORT BY JOANNA HAIGH FORMER CO-DIRECTOR OF THE GRANTHAM INSTITUTE, IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON Page 1 UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE CHANGE For much of Earth’s history, greenhouse gases have played a critical role in creating liveable conditions on our planet. Since the industrial revolution, however, human activity has emitted massive greenhouse gas levels which have already warmed the planet 1°C. This and further climate change threaten to provoke disasters like extreme weather events, sea level rise, ocean acidification and the devastation of animal habitats. Earth History and Our Atmosphere Weather is different from climate. We experience weather as temperature, pressure, humidity, rainfall, cloud and wind. It is bad weather that ruins the afternoon picnic you had planned in London’s Hyde Park. Climate, on the other hand, represents typical weather conditions for a particular area. London’s wet climate might discourage one from planning a picnic in the first place. J O A N N A H A I G H Former Co-Director of the Grantham Institute Advisory Board Member of the Climate Crisis Foundation Page 2 Scientists often measure climate by transformative effect on the atmosphere: aggregating weather data over a thirty-year plants consumed C O 2 as they developed, so period. To detect signs of climate change, that by around three million years ago its scientists must first understand normal concentration was down to below 280 parts weather patterns and behaviour. per million (280 ppm, meaning 280 molecules in every one million molecules of The global average surface temperature air). serves as an important indicator of the state of the Earth’s climate. A key Life on Earth evolved under these factor determining this temperature is conditions, with modern humans appearing atmospheric composition: a combination about 200,000 years ago. Atmospheric CO2 that has seen constant flux since the Earth had not exceeded 280ppm until the formed from the explosion of a industrial revolution introduced massive massive star five billion years ago and emissions from the combustion of fossil condensed from a ball of hot gases. In fuels. Over the past two centuries, CO2 those early days, the atmosphere was concentration has risen exponentially (at a mainly composed of nitrogen, carbon rate of about 0.17% per year). This dioxide (CO2 ) and water vapour, which increase comes mainly from the seeped through cracks in the combustion of coal and oil, but also from solid surface. A similar composition tropical deforestation and the resulting depletion of our climate system’s capacity for photosynthesis. In 2015, atmospheric In 2015, atmospheric CO2 C. O 2 passed 400ppm—more than 40% higher than its pre-industrial value. And it passed 400ppm—more than continues to rise. 40% higher than its pre-industrial value. What are Greenhouse Gases? C O 2 plays an important role in climate emerges from volcanic eruptions today, because it functions as an atmospheric although human pollutants far outweigh the “greenhouse” gas (GHG). Greenhouse effects of these natural emissions. gases keep the Earth’s surface about 33 degrees warmer than the -18°C As the planet cooled, some of that early temperature Earth would experience water vapour condensed to form oceans. without them. They do this by allowing While some CO2 dissolved in the planet’s most of the Sun’s rays to travel down and new waters, much of it lingered in the warm the Earth’s surface. They then absorb atmosphere. Bacteria became the first life the radiant heat that the surface emits, to evolve on Earth which could survive in thus trapping it and enhancing solar this primordial atmosphere. But about 2.5 warming. In our present climate, the most billion years ago, plants developed the effective GHGs are water vapour ability to photosynthesise. With this new (responsible for about two-thirds of total talent came the creation of glucose and warming) and C O 2 (responsible for about oxygen from CO2 and water in the presence one quarter). Methane also acts as a GHG of light from the Sun. Photosynthesis had a and has been increasing due to human Page 3 agricultural practices—since 1800, the Earth’s orbit around the Sun. methane levels have risen by more than 150%. At the end of each ice age, increases in the solar radiation received by the atmosphere GHGs’ significant influence on the Earth’s result in reduced uptake of C O 2 by the surface temperature might seem surprising. oceans and further warming from an The atmospheric concentration of water enhanced greenhouse effect. As ice sheets vapour is less than 1%, while we measure and glaciers melt, sea levels begin to rise. other GHGs in parts per million or billion. It Scientists estimate that as the Earth is the structure of GHG molecules, emerged from the last glacial maximum however, that make them so potent even in 20,000 years ago, sea levels rose by about objectively trace amounts. GHG molecules 120m. are especially effective at absorbing heat radiation, while the major atmospheric Here is something to worry about: as the gases—nitrogen and oxygen—remain Earth emerged from each of its previous ice essentially transparent to such radiation. ages, its rate of warming was roughly ten times slower than what we have Solar energy represents another natural experienced over the past century due to influence on surface temperature. Solar output varies by less than a tenth of one percent over its 11-year “solar cycle,” leading to low influence on the global average surface temperature. Even over centuries, solar activity only prompts a temperature variation of around 0.1°C. The energy arriving at Earth, however, depends not only on solar output but also on variations in Earth-Sun orbital geometry which occur across tens or even hundreds of thousands of years. As noted earlier, carbon dioxide human-produced GHGs. Even worse: the concentration had not exceeded 280ppm slow, natural amplification of temperature since several million years before the fluctuations occurs in response to any industrial revolution. It had, however, gone initiating factor, regardless of its source. through periods considerably below Human emissions of GHGs are thus 280ppm. Ice ages have occurred roughly committing the Earth to a much larger every 100,000 years for at least half a warming in the long term, along with an million years, during which global associated massive rise in sea levels. temperatures have dropped around 5°C. These drops in global temperatures have The Consequences of Climate Change been accompanied by reductions in carbon dioxide concentration to less than 200ppm. Over the past century, human GHG Ice ages—and corresponding warmer emissions have produced an indisputable interglacial periods—come from changes in rise in global average surface temperature. Page 4 But the warming is not the same number of record high temperature events everywhere. Climate varies across the has been increasing, while the number of globe depending on latitude, altitude, record low temperature events has been topography and prevailing wind and air decreasing. masses. In each region, the natural environment, ecology, biodiversity and Satellite observations reveal that the human activities like agriculture have amount of spring snow cover in the developed to suit specific local conditions. Northern Hemisphere has decreased over The effects of global warming disrupt those the past five decades—snow is melting local conditions in varying ways. earlier. Glaciers all over the world—in the Alps, Rockies, Andes, Himalayas, Africa and As temperatures rise and the air becomes Alaska—are also melting, with the rate of warmer, more moisture evaporates from shrinkage increasing further in recent land and water into the atmosphere and decades. Until 2016, glaciers lost ice for 37 produces more rain and snow. Since the years in a row. beginning of the 20th century, humidity and rainfall have increased in the mid-latitudes Recent temperatures have also affected of the Northern Hemisphere. The evidence permafrost: the layer of soil or rock that is also suggests that heavy rainfall events frozen all year round in many countries in have become more intense, especially over the far north. As air temperature rises, so does the temperature of the ground, causing permafrost to thaw. Scientists’ ...human GHG emissions have measurements across Alaska show that produced an indisputable rise in ground temperatures have increased consistently since the late 1970s, with global average surface permafrost already melted in many temperature. locations. This melting introduces an unfortunate additional warming factor: as the permafrost melts, it releases methane North America. In some regions of the and adds to the atmosphere’s GHG world seasons have begun to change; in the inventory. UK, for example, summer rainfall has decreased as winter rainfall has increased. All these disruptions to local climates Other regions have experienced more disrupt the habitats of animal species. drought conditions: since the 1970s, Climate change forces species to either droughts have become longer and more adapt or migrate to areas with more extreme worldwide, particularly in the favourable conditions. Even small changes tropics and subtropics. in average temperatures can have a significant effect on ecosystems. Changes An increase in average temperature means in the seasons (like spring in the UK starting that heatwaves—the occurrence of earlier and autumn starting later) bring temperatures above a threshold defined for changes in the behaviour of species. a given location—are more likely while cold Butterflies have been appearing earlier in events have become less likely. Indeed, the year, for example, while birds have observations since 1950 show that the shifted their migration patterns. Page 5 Ocean acidification presents another storage, green materials and nature-based dangerous consequence of climate change. solutions are also in progress.
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