Development and Evaluation of Sampling Protocols for At-Risk
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VIRGINIA LAW REVIEW ASSOCIATION VIRGINIA LAW REVIEW ONLINE VOLUME 103 DECEMBER 2017 94–102 ESSAY ACT-SAMPLING BIAS AND THE SHROUDING OF REPEAT OFFENDING Ian Ayres, Michael Chwe and Jessica Ladd∗ A college president needs to know how many sexual assaults on her campus are caused by repeat offenders. If repeat offenders are responsible for most sexual assaults, the institutional response should focus on identifying and removing perpetrators. But how many offenders are repeat offenders? Ideally, we would find all offenders and then see how many are repeat offenders. Short of this, we could observe a random sample of offenders. But in real life, we observe a sample of sexual assaults, not a sample of offenders. In this paper, we explain how drawing naive conclusions from “act sampling”—sampling people’s actions instead of sampling the population—can make us grossly underestimate the proportion of repeat actors. We call this “act-sampling bias.” This bias is especially severe when the sample of known acts is small, as in sexual assault, which is among the least likely of crimes to be reported.1 In general, act sampling can bias our conclusions in unexpected ways. For example, if we use act sampling to collect a set of people, and then these people truthfully report whether they are repeat actors, we can overestimate the proportion of repeat actors. * Ayres is the William K. Townsend Professor at Yale Law School; Chwe is Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Los Angeles; and Ladd is the Founder and CEO of Callisto. 1 David Cantor et al., Report on the AAU Campus Climate Survey on Sexual Assault and Sexual Misconduct, Westat, at iv (2015) [hereinafter AAU Survey], (noting that a relatively small percentage of the most serious offenses are reported) https://perma.cc/5BX7-GQPU; Nat’ Inst. -
Endangered Species
FEATURE: ENDANGERED SPECIES Conservation Status of Imperiled North American Freshwater and Diadromous Fishes ABSTRACT: This is the third compilation of imperiled (i.e., endangered, threatened, vulnerable) plus extinct freshwater and diadromous fishes of North America prepared by the American Fisheries Society’s Endangered Species Committee. Since the last revision in 1989, imperilment of inland fishes has increased substantially. This list includes 700 extant taxa representing 133 genera and 36 families, a 92% increase over the 364 listed in 1989. The increase reflects the addition of distinct populations, previously non-imperiled fishes, and recently described or discovered taxa. Approximately 39% of described fish species of the continent are imperiled. There are 230 vulnerable, 190 threatened, and 280 endangered extant taxa, and 61 taxa presumed extinct or extirpated from nature. Of those that were imperiled in 1989, most (89%) are the same or worse in conservation status; only 6% have improved in status, and 5% were delisted for various reasons. Habitat degradation and nonindigenous species are the main threats to at-risk fishes, many of which are restricted to small ranges. Documenting the diversity and status of rare fishes is a critical step in identifying and implementing appropriate actions necessary for their protection and management. Howard L. Jelks, Frank McCormick, Stephen J. Walsh, Joseph S. Nelson, Noel M. Burkhead, Steven P. Platania, Salvador Contreras-Balderas, Brady A. Porter, Edmundo Díaz-Pardo, Claude B. Renaud, Dean A. Hendrickson, Juan Jacobo Schmitter-Soto, John Lyons, Eric B. Taylor, and Nicholas E. Mandrak, Melvin L. Warren, Jr. Jelks, Walsh, and Burkhead are research McCormick is a biologist with the biologists with the U.S. -
Part IV: Scoring Criteria for the Index of Biotic Integrity to Monitor
Part IV: Scoring Criteria for the Index of Biotic Integrity to Monitor Fish Communities in Wadeable Streams in the Coosa and Tennessee Drainage Basins of the Ridge and Valley Ecoregion of Georgia Georgia Department of Natural Resources Wildlife Resources Division Fisheries Management Section 2020 Table of Contents Introduction………………………………………………………………… ……... Pg. 1 Map of Ridge and Valley Ecoregion………………………………..……............... Pg. 3 Table 1. State Listed Fish in the Ridge and Valley Ecoregion……………………. Pg. 4 Table 2. IBI Metrics and Scoring Criteria………………………………………….Pg. 5 References………………………………………………….. ………………………Pg. 7 Appendix 1…………………………………………………………………. ………Pg. 8 Coosa Basin Group (ACT) MSR Graphs..………………………………….Pg. 9 Tennessee Basin Group (TEN) MSR Graphs……………………………….Pg. 17 Ridge and Valley Ecoregion Fish List………………………………………Pg. 25 i Introduction The Ridge and Valley ecoregion is one of the six Level III ecoregions found in Georgia (Part 1, Figure 1). It is drained by two major river basins, the Coosa and the Tennessee, in the northwestern corner of Georgia. The Ridge and Valley ecoregion covers nearly 3,000 square miles (United States Census Bureau 2000) and includes all or portions of 10 counties (Figure 1), bordering the Piedmont ecoregion to the south and the Blue Ridge ecoregion to the east. A small portion of the Southwestern Appalachians ecoregion is located in the upper northwestern corner of the Ridge and Valley ecoregion. The biotic index developed by the GAWRD is based on Level III ecoregion delineations (Griffith et al. 2001). The metrics and scoring criteria adapted to the Ridge and Valley ecoregion were developed from biomonitoring samples collected in the two major river basins that drain the Ridge and Valley ecoregion, the Coosa (ACT) and the Tennessee (TEN). -
Fish Survey for Calhoun, Gordon County, Georgia
Blacktail Redhorse (Moxostoma poecilurum) from Oothkalooga Creek Fish Survey for Calhoun, Gordon County, Georgia Prepared by: DECATUR, GA 30030 www.foxenvironmental.net January 2018 Abstract Biological assessments, in conjunction with habitat surveys, provide a time-integrated evaluation of water quality conditions. Biological and habitat assessments for fish were conducted on 3 stream segments in and around Calhoun, Gordon County, Georgia on October 3 and 5, 2017. Fish, physical habitat, and water chemistry data were evaluated according to Georgia Department of Natural Resources (GADNR), Wildlife Resources Division (WRD) – Fisheries Section protocol entitled “Standard Operating Procedures for Conducting Biomonitoring on Fish Communities in Wadeable Streams in Georgia”. All of the water quality parameters at all sites were within the typical ranges for streams although conductivity was somewhat high across the sites. Fish habitat scores ranged from 80 (Tributary to Oothkalooga Creek) to 132.7 (Oothkalooga Creek). Native fish species richness ranged from 6 species (Tributary to Oothkalooga Creek) to 17 (Oothkalooga and Lynn Creeks). Index of biotic integrity (IBI) scores ranged from 16 (Tributary to Oothkalooga Creek; “Very Poor”) to 34 (Lynn Creek; “Fair”). Overall, the results demonstrate that Oothkalooga and Lynn Creeks are in fair condition whereas the Tributary to Oothkalooga Creek is highly impaired. Although the data are only a snapshot of stream conditions during the sampling events, they provide a biological characterization from which to evaluate the effect of future changes in water quality and watershed management in Calhoun. We recommend continued monitoring of stream sites throughout the area to ensure that the future ecological health of Calhoun’s water resources is maintained. -
Human Dimensions of Wildlife the Fallacy of Online Surveys: No Data Are Better Than Bad Data
Human Dimensions of Wildlife, 15:55–64, 2010 Copyright © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC ISSN: 1087-1209 print / 1533-158X online DOI: 10.1080/10871200903244250 UHDW1087-12091533-158XHuman Dimensions of WildlifeWildlife, Vol.The 15, No. 1, November 2009: pp. 0–0 Fallacy of Online Surveys: No Data Are Better Than Bad Data TheM. D. Fallacy Duda ofand Online J. L. Nobile Surveys MARK DAMIAN DUDA AND JOANNE L. NOBILE Responsive Management, Harrisonburg, Virginia, USA Internet or online surveys have become attractive to fish and wildlife agencies as an economical way to measure constituents’ opinions and attitudes on a variety of issues. Online surveys, however, can have several drawbacks that affect the scientific validity of the data. We describe four basic problems that online surveys currently present to researchers and then discuss three research projects conducted in collaboration with state fish and wildlife agencies that illustrate these drawbacks. Each research project involved an online survey and/or a corresponding random telephone survey or non- response bias analysis. Systematic elimination of portions of the sample population in the online survey is demonstrated in each research project (i.e., the definition of bias). One research project involved a closed population, which enabled a direct comparison of telephone and online results with the total population. Keywords Internet surveys, sample validity, SLOP surveys, public opinion, non- response bias Introduction Fish and wildlife and outdoor recreation professionals use public opinion and attitude sur- veys to facilitate understanding their constituents. When the surveys are scientifically valid and unbiased, this information is useful for organizational planning. Survey research, however, costs money. -
Levy, Marc A., “Sampling Bias Does Not Exaggerate Climate-Conflict Claims,” Nature Climate Change 8,6 (442)
Levy, Marc A., “Sampling bias does not exaggerate climate-conflict claims,” Nature Climate Change 8,6 (442) https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0170-5 Final pre-publication text To the Editor – In a recent Letter, Adams et al1 argue that claims regarding climate-conflict links are overstated because of sampling bias. However, this conclusion rests on logical fallacies and conceptual misunderstanding. There is some sampling bias, but it does not have the claimed effect. Suggesting that a more representative literature would generate a lower estimate of climate- conflict links is a case of begging the question. It only make sense if one already accepts the conclusion that the links are overstated. Otherwise it is possible that more representative cases might lead to stronger estimates. In fact, correcting sampling bias generally does tend to increase effect estimates2,3. The authors’ claim that the literature’s disproportionate focus on Africa undermines sustainable development and climate adaptation rests on the same fallacy. What if the climate-conflict links are as strong as people think? It is far from obvious that acting as if they were not would somehow enhance development and adaptation. The authors offer no reasoning to support such a claim, and the notion that security and development are best addressed in concert is consistent with much political theory and practice4,5,6. Conceptually, the authors apply a curious kind of “piling on” perspective in which each new paper somehow ratchets up the consensus view of a country’s climate-conflict links, without regard to methods or findings. Consider the papers cited as examples of how selecting cases on the conflict variable exaggerates the link. -
Acknowledgments
Acknowledgments Many people contributed to the various sections of this report. The contributions of these authors, reviewers, suppliers of data, analysts, and computer systems operators are gratefully acknowl- edged. Specific contributions are mentioned in connection with the individual chapters. Chapter 1 Chapter 4 Authors: Jack Holcomb, USDA Forest Service Jack Holcomb, Team co-leader, John Greis, USDA Forest Service USDA Forest Service Patricia A. Flebbe, USDA Forest Service, Chapter 5 Southern Research Station Lloyd W. Swift, Jr., USDA Forest Service, Richard Burns, USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station Morris Flexner, U.S. Environmental Chapter 2 Protection Agency Authors: Richard Burns, USDA Forest Service Patricia A. Flebbe, USDA Forest Service, Bill Melville, U.S. Environmental Southern Research Station Protection Agency Jim Harrison, Team co-leader, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Chapter 6 Gary Kappesser, USDA Forest Service Jack Holcomb, USDA Forest Service Dave Melgaard, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Chapter 7 Jeanne Riley, USDA Forest Service Patricia A. Flebbe, USDA Forest Service, Lloyd W. Swift, USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station Southern Research Station Jack Holcomb, USDA Forest Service Chapter 3 Jim Harrison, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Jim Harrison, U.S. Environmental Lloyd W. Swift, USDA Forest Service, Protection Agency Southern Research Station Geographic Information System Liaison (graphic and database development): Dennis Yankee, Tennessee Valley Authority Neal Burns, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Jim Wang, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Don Norris, USDA Forest Service Many people, in addition to the authors and their colleagues, contributed to the preparation of this report. Special thanks are given to the people who worked on various sub-teams and to the many reviewers and scientists who helped along the way. -
10. Sample Bias, Bias of Selection and Double-Blind
SEC 4 Page 1 of 8 10. SAMPLE BIAS, BIAS OF SELECTION AND DOUBLE-BLIND 10.1 SAMPLE BIAS: In statistics, sampling bias is a bias in which a sample is collected in such a way that some members of the intended population are less likely to be included than others. It results in abiased sample, a non-random sample[1] of a population (or non-human factors) in which all individuals, or instances, were not equally likely to have been selected.[2] If this is not accounted for, results can be erroneously attributed to the phenomenon under study rather than to the method of sampling. Medical sources sometimes refer to sampling bias as ascertainment bias.[3][4] Ascertainment bias has basically the same definition,[5][6] but is still sometimes classified as a separate type of bias Types of sampling bias Selection from a specific real area. For example, a survey of high school students to measure teenage use of illegal drugs will be a biased sample because it does not include home-schooled students or dropouts. A sample is also biased if certain members are underrepresented or overrepresented relative to others in the population. For example, a "man on the street" interview which selects people who walk by a certain location is going to have an overrepresentation of healthy individuals who are more likely to be out of the home than individuals with a chronic illness. This may be an extreme form of biased sampling, because certain members of the population are totally excluded from the sample (that is, they have zero probability of being selected). -
* This Is an Excerpt from Protected Animals of Georgia Published By
Common Name: CHEROKEE DARTER Scientific Name: Etheostoma scotti Other Commonly Used Names: none Previously Used Scientific Names: Etheostoma coosae Family: Percidae Rarity Ranks: G2/S2 State Legal Status: Threatened Federal Legal Status: Threatened Description: The Cherokee darter has a rounded snout, a distinct dark bar beneath the eye, and 7-8 dorsal blotches that may fuse with the 7-8 lateral blotches. The lateral blotches elongate into slightly oblique greenish-olive bars in breeding males. The anterior lateral line pores are usually outlined in black. Breeding males have an anterior red window and a single broad reddish band in the first dorsal fin, red in the second dorsal fin, and a green-edged anal fin. The caudal fin may also be edged in green dorsally and ventrally. Adult size of the Cherokee darter is 40-65 mm (1.6-2.6 in) total length. A recent population genetic study of the Cherokee darter identified three distinct evolutionarily significant units (ESUs) that are geographically separated. These ESUs are genetically distinct from one another, suggesting isolation from one another for at least tens of thousands of years. A male from the Richland Creek system (lower ESU) is pictured above. A male from the uppermost ESU and a female from the middle ESU are shown at the bottom of this account. Similar Species: The Cherokee darter belongs to the subgenus Ulocentra, commonly known as snubnose darters. Two other snubnose darters occur in the upper Coosa River basin, the Coosa darter (E. coosae) and holiday darter (E. brevirostrum). Breeding males of the three snubnose darters can be distinguished based on fin pigmentation: the Coosa darter has five discrete bands in the first dorsal fin; the holiday darter has a red band appearing over bluish or gray pigment in the second dorsal fin and anal fin; the Cherokee darter has a red wash in both the first and second dorsal fins, without banding (except lower ESU). -
Management Indicator Species Population and Habitat Trends
United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Management Indicator Species Southern Region Population and Habitat Trends Chattahoochee-Oconee National Forests Revised and Updated May 2003 i CONTENTS Page Introduction......................................................................................................................... 1 Documentation of Management Indicator Species Selection ......................................... 1 Management Indicator Species Habitat Relationships............................................. 8 Forestwide Management Indicator Species Habitat Monitoring and Evaluation ............. 10 Forestwide Management Indicator Species Population Trend Monitoring and Evaluation ....................................................................................................................... 13 White-tailed Deer.......................................................................................................... 15 Black Bear..................................................................................................................... 19 Eastern Wild Turkey..................................................................................................... 23 Ruffed Grouse............................................................................................................... 27 Bobwhite Quail ............................................................................................................. 31 Gray Squirrel................................................................................................................ -
Cognitive Biases in Software Engineering: a Systematic Mapping Study
Cognitive Biases in Software Engineering: A Systematic Mapping Study Rahul Mohanani, Iflaah Salman, Burak Turhan, Member, IEEE, Pilar Rodriguez and Paul Ralph Abstract—One source of software project challenges and failures is the systematic errors introduced by human cognitive biases. Although extensively explored in cognitive psychology, investigations concerning cognitive biases have only recently gained popularity in software engineering research. This paper therefore systematically maps, aggregates and synthesizes the literature on cognitive biases in software engineering to generate a comprehensive body of knowledge, understand state of the art research and provide guidelines for future research and practise. Focusing on bias antecedents, effects and mitigation techniques, we identified 65 articles (published between 1990 and 2016), which investigate 37 cognitive biases. Despite strong and increasing interest, the results reveal a scarcity of research on mitigation techniques and poor theoretical foundations in understanding and interpreting cognitive biases. Although bias-related research has generated many new insights in the software engineering community, specific bias mitigation techniques are still needed for software professionals to overcome the deleterious effects of cognitive biases on their work. Index Terms—Antecedents of cognitive bias. cognitive bias. debiasing, effects of cognitive bias. software engineering, systematic mapping. 1 INTRODUCTION OGNITIVE biases are systematic deviations from op- knowledge. No analogous review of SE research exists. The timal reasoning [1], [2]. In other words, they are re- purpose of this study is therefore as follows: curring errors in thinking, or patterns of bad judgment Purpose: to review, summarize and synthesize the current observable in different people and contexts. A well-known state of software engineering research involving cognitive example is confirmation bias—the tendency to pay more at- biases. -
Correcting Sampling Bias in Non-Market Valuation with Kernel Mean Matching
CORRECTING SAMPLING BIAS IN NON-MARKET VALUATION WITH KERNEL MEAN MATCHING Rui Zhang Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics University of Georgia [email protected] Selected Paper prepared for presentation at the 2017 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting, Chicago, Illinois, July 30 - August 1 Copyright 2017 by Rui Zhang. All rights reserved. Readers may make verbatim copies of this document for non-commercial purposes by any means, provided that this copyright notice appears on all such copies. Abstract Non-response is common in surveys used in non-market valuation studies and can bias the parameter estimates and mean willingness to pay (WTP) estimates. One approach to correct this bias is to reweight the sample so that the distribution of the characteristic variables of the sample can match that of the population. We use a machine learning algorism Kernel Mean Matching (KMM) to produce resampling weights in a non-parametric manner. We test KMM’s performance through Monte Carlo simulations under multiple scenarios and show that KMM can effectively correct mean WTP estimates, especially when the sample size is small and sampling process depends on covariates. We also confirm KMM’s robustness to skewed bid design and model misspecification. Key Words: contingent valuation, Kernel Mean Matching, non-response, bias correction, willingness to pay 2 1. Introduction Nonrandom sampling can bias the contingent valuation estimates in two ways. Firstly, when the sample selection process depends on the covariate, the WTP estimates are biased due to the divergence between the covariate distributions of the sample and the population, even the parameter estimates are consistent; this is usually called non-response bias.