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North Yorkshire Strategic Housing Market Assessment North Yorkshire Strategic Housing Partnership November 2011

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North Yorkshire Strategic Housing Market Assessment North Yorkshire Strategic Housing Partnership November 2011 ReportReport GVA 81 Fountain Street Manchester M2 2EE North Yorkshire Strategic Housing Market Assessment North Yorkshire Strategic Housing Partnership November 2011 NYSHP Contents CONTENTS Executive Summary.............................................................................................................. i 1. Introduction to the SHMA....................................................................................... 1 2. Spatial Context ..................................................................................................... 14 3. Policy and Market Context.................................................................................. 21 4. Demographic and Economic Context ............................................................... 40 5. The Housing Stock ................................................................................................ 77 6. The Active Market .............................................................................................. 101 7. The Future Housing Market ................................................................................ 146 8. Housing Need ..................................................................................................... 200 9. Housing Requirements of Specific Household Groups.................................... 240 10. Drawing the Evidence Together – Conclusions ............................................... 312 Appendices Appendix 1: Craven­specific SHMA Analysis Appendix 2: Hambleton­specific SHMA Analysis Appendix 3: Harrogate­specific SHMA Analysis Appendix 4: Richmondshire­specific SHMA Analysis Appendix 5: Ryedale­specific SHMA Analysis Appendix 6: Scarborough­specific SHMA Analysis Appendix 7: York­specific SHMA Analysis Appendix 8: Selby SHMA Summary Appendix 9: Compliance with CLG Guidance Process Checklist Table 1.2 Appendix 10: Household Survey Methodological Approach Appendix 11: Sub Regional Market Area Analysis (including National Parks) Appendix 12: Ward data table Prepared By: Antony Pollard / Matthew Spilsbury Status: Associate / Senior Date: 15­11­11 ....... Reviewed By Richard Laming .............. Status: Director................... Date: 15­11­11 ......................... For and on behalf of GVA Grimley Ltd November 2011 NYSHP North Yorkshire Strategic Housing Market Assessment Executive Summary GVA was commissioned to undertake a Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) on behalf of the North Yorkshire Strategic Housing Partnership (hereafter NYSHP) in September 2010. The findings of this research will be used to inform each authority’s housing policy, Local Development Framework and negotiations on planning applications. The turbulent economic climate and housing market context at the point in which this research is undertaken makes it an extremely interesting time to evaluate the extent to which the market has evolved, but also presents significant obstacles in forecasting likely trajectories of change forward. In order to reflect these issues this SHMA provides the NYSHP with a detailed analysis of key indicators, using a number of models and approaches and seeking opportunities to triangulate a range of data sources wherever possible to construct scenarios of likely change. The scenarios therefore present a set of evidence based parameters to help inform policy development. The SHMA research has utilised a range of robust methodological approaches which have drawn upon a mix of secondary and primary data sources, including a postal household survey and publication of the household survey online to ensure opportunity for wider open engagement and comment. This aligns with the requirements of the latest CLG SHMA Guidance (Version 2 August 2007). The wide range of primary and secondary datasets used in this assessment includes: • A primary household survey, undertaken in January 2011. A total of 155,104 household surveys1 were posted to residents within the sub­region. 1 Including: 24,244 mailings in Craven, 24,844 mailing in Hambleton, 25,891 mailing in Harrogate, 18,147 mailing in Richmondshire, 18,805 mailing in Ryedale, 18,430 mailing in Scarborough, 23,157 mailing in York and 1,586 mailing to military personnel November 2011 gva.co.uk i NYSHP North Yorkshire Strategic Housing Market Assessment The primary data collected through the survey has been augmented with a complete analysis of secondary data sources. Key secondary datasets analysed through this research include: • Land Registry house price data and Rightmove.co.uk data; • Council Tax data collated by the individual authorities across North Yorkshire; • Planning data including historic records of completions and permissions; • Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA) data; • The Council’s Housing Strategy Statistical Appendix (HSSA); • The 2001 Census; and • A range of existing research documents produced by NYSHP and individual authorities. SHMA Spatial Geographies North Yorkshire is one of four sub­regions within the Yorkshire and Humber region. It comprises the six Borough / District Housing and Planning Authorities of North Yorkshire and the City of York Council. In addition the spatial area of North Yorkshire also includes parts of the North York Moors National Park and the Yorkshire Dales National Park planning authorities. These authorities, alongside North Yorkshire County Council, represent an important sub­regional geography and are all partners on the sub regional housing partnership, which is monitored by the Local Government North Yorkshire and York Housing Board (LGNYYHB). By commissioning the SHMA on a sub­regional basis this report provides a uniform level of sub regional data about housing markets, housing needs and housing demands for all six Boroughs / Districts, the two National Parks and the City of York. The geographical area of the study areas is significant, extending 80 miles from north to south and 130 miles from east to west. This area incorporates a significant amount of variety in physical, economic and housing market terms. The North Yorkshire sub region accounts for approximately 15% of the Yorkshire and Humber population, but over 50% of its land mass, which is illustrative of the rural nature of large parts of the geography. November 2011 gva.co.uk ii NYSHP North Yorkshire Strategic Housing Market Assessment Recognising the importance of developing an evidence base that enables strategic analysis to be undertaken alongside local analysis the SHMA uses a range of geographies. Differing levels of detail are available for the geographies listed below. For ward geographies and below it is important to note that the secondary and primary data becomes less robust and the findings should be considered in light of this limitation: • North Yorkshire – analysis is presented for the whole of North Yorkshire. New primary data has not been collected for Selby. However, where possible data has been brought across from the recently conducted HMA for the authority; • Strategic sub­markets – these sub­market areas were previously formulated to inform regional planning policy and include for example the Leeds City Region, a portion of which covers North Yorkshire and the York sub area which is defined by the functional market links to the City of York; • Local Authorities – this geography represents the fundamental building block of planning policy and is given precedence within the research; • Local Authority sub­markets – each authority has been broken up into a number of ‘sub­markets’. These sub­markets are intended to represent a combination of functional (i.e. travel to work areas and areas of market search) and policy definitions; • Wards – core datasets have been disaggregated down to a ward level to help inform local policy. The data collected through the household survey has also been geo­coded to individual Parishes to enable future analysis at this small geographical level by the authorities. Understanding the Stock Profile An understanding of the areas housing offer, in particular the profile of its existing stock, provides a valuable foundation from which to assess both the health of the current market and the capacity for the stock to match future housing requirements. North Yorkshire contains a total of 356,239 dwellings of which 9,200 are vacant, resulting in a total dwelling occupancy level of approximately 347,039 and a vacancy rate of approximately 2.6%, as at 2009/10. November 2011 gva.co.uk iii NYSHP North Yorkshire Strategic Housing Market Assessment Consideration of the individual authorities reveals that City of York represents just over 20% of total housing stock across North Yorkshire, with almost 85,000 properties. Harrogate contains the second largest stock volume with almost 69,000 properties, followed by Scarborough containing 55,600. The other authorities all contain less than 40,000 properties. Ryedale and Richmondshire contain the lowest total stock numbers. Levels of vacancy are low in all authorities and Richmondshire and Selby in particular record notably low levels of empty properties; considerably below the 3% level often associated with a general allowance for ‘churn’ (sales/re­let turnover). City of York has the lowest level of long­term empty homes representing just 0.5% of total stock. The authorities of North Yorkshire have all experienced new housing development over recent years on varying scales. Between 2004 and 2010 a total of approximately 16,950 new units have been delivered across North Yorkshire. This equates to an average of just over 2,800
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