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DCVZ, NST, & Tornadogenesis

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DCVZ, NST, & Tornadogenesis DCVZ, NST, & Tornadogenesis Notes and Talks from Al Pietrycha, Drs. Bruce Lee and Paul Markowski DCVZ • A mesoscale feature of convergent winds, 50 to 100 km in length, usually oriented north–south, just east of the Denver, Colorado area. • Extending from south of Fort Morgan to Kiowa (~ 80 km) • It can develop west as I-25, and extend as far south as Colorado Springs. • The cause of the feature is an interacVon of southeasterly low-level flow with an east–west ridge known as the Palmer Divide extending onto the eastern Colorado plains to the south of Denver. • In order for the DCVZ to form, the low-level must be relavely stacally stable across the Palmer Divide region. • Several studies have documented the role of the DCVZ in tornado outbreaks across the Denver area. The presence of a strong June DCVZ has been associated with a 70% chance of NST tornado formaon. DCVZ • Studies have revealed rotaonal instabiliVes as verVcally oriented vorVces 500 m to 4 km in diameter flowing along the boundary. • These microscale vorVces have a wavelength of ~4 - 5 km. • They exhibited assorted degrees of surface occlusion. • VerVcal vorVcity associated with eddies was found to be on the order of 10-2 s-1. • Strong moisture gradients existed across the boundary, the largest of which are collocated with a vortex. DCVZ • Largest dew point differenVals have been observed as much as 6°C across 500 m. • The DCVZ is NOT the same feature as the Denver Cyclone. • DCVZ can develop with or without the cyclone, and visa versa. • One is a gyre (Denver Cyclone), the other a convergent shear zone (DCVZ). • Oben the DCVZ will develop along the eastern edge of the cyclone where southerly flow converges with the westerly return flow associated with the cyclone. • DCVZ has been shown to help iniVate thunderstorms in the convecVve season. 199807232200Z At 2205 UTC the largest shear was sampled associated with the velocity couplet (0.5° 44 kt gate-to gate shear). Image of reflecVvity data recorded by the CSU-CHILL radar at 2208 UTC 16 July 1998. The Denver Convergence-VorVcity Zone is seen as a NNE-SSW band of enhanced reflecviVes. White arrows denote the boundary locaon; white rectangle mobile mesonet transect locaons. Winds to the east of the zone were generally from the southeast; west of the zone, winds were generally lighter and from the northwest. SubjecVve analysis of mobile mesonet dewpoint temperature (tenths °C) observaons across the DCVZ at 2057 UTC on 16 July 1998. Observaons are 18-sec averages (3 observaons) ploied every 6 sec using Vme-to-space conversion with a moVon vector from 185 at 6.0 m s-1. Isodrosotherms shaded every 1°C. Winds in knots with one full barb, and one half barb equal to 10, and 5 knots, respecVvely. As in previous Figure except for 2137 UTC 16 July 1998 SubjecVve analysis of mobile mesonet dewpoint temperature as in Fig. 2 except for 2149 UTC 16 July 1998. As in previous Figure except for 2215 UTC 16 July 1998. Myth #1 • Storms that develop along the Front Range will move east, cross the DCVZ and intensify. Actually, by far, the vast majority of the storms will move off the higher terrain of the Front Range foothills and dissipate, for apparent thermodynamic reasons. The small minority of storms that due survive moving off the higher terrain don't intensify when interacVng with the boundary. However, If a storm develops along, and over the north slope of the Palmer Divide and moves northeast out onto the Plains while traversing the DCVZ, pick that storm and stay with it! SomeVmes a storm will roll southeast off the Cheyenne Ridge and interact with the DCVZ near FT Morgan or eastern Weld County. This too is the storm of choice if you want to maximize the possibility to observe a tornado. The boiom line is you want a cell that moves along the vorVcity source. Please note that the Palmer Divide and Cheyenne Ridge are not defined here as "higher terrain". The higher terrain = the foothills of the Colorado Rockies. Myth #2 • Every surface boundary in the Denver area is the DCVZ. More than half the boundaries that are resolved in the data are actually related to 1) old frontal boundaries 2) lee troughs, 3) old ouqlow boundaries, 4) downslope induced "meso-gama drylines", or 5) unknown feature/origin and cause. Myth #3 • The Denver Cyclone and/or DCVZ will develop aLer the passage of a cold front. The occurrence of the Denver Cyclone or DCVZ is common 1-3 days aer the passage of a cold front but only if there is a relavely high degree of stac stability present in the lower part of the atmosphere. Without the stability, the return southerly flow will flow freely over the Palmer Divide and no gyre or convergence boundary will develop. Unfortunately there is no magic # of stability to look for to help determine if a cyclone or convergence zone will form. What ever the 'right' amount of stac stability is needed appears to be event dependant. Myth #4 • An isolated cell developing along the DCVZ or within the Denver Cyclone will propagate east, say towards Last Chance, and produce a tornado. Not usually (once in a blue moon). Oben if the only storms that develop are along the DCVZ then we know a few things. We can deduce that the atmosphere is strongly capped and needed some sort of deep boundary layer localized convergence to iniVate the storms. Most Vmes, once the cells move away from the DCVZ they loose their sources of deep layer lib and dissipate due to the strong environmental convecVve inhibiVon. This same thing happens along the Caprock; an isolated storm goes up in the Palo Duro Canyon, moves east a bit, and dies. SomeVmes DCVZ iniVated storms will develop along the boundary, move east and become part of a squall. This usually is always in response to an approaching mid- or upper- level short wave trough. Non Supercell Tornado • What constutes an NST? – landspouts (common High Plains term) – most waterspouts – some tornadoes associated with bow echo storms and squall lines – Note: many of the “flanking line” tornadoes associated with supercells develop through the NST- genesis mechanism NST • Why is it important? – Significant porVon of all tornadoes naonwide – Intensity may reach F3 – NST forecasVng skill is poor – Predominant tornado type in certain parts of U.S. – NST-genesis knowledge may help in understanding supercell tornadogenesis and hybrid genesis modes Non Supercell Tornado NST • State of ForecasQng/Nowcasng NSTs – Very liile skill in NST forecasVng – RecogniVon from SPC and local NWS forecasters of NST threat in very specific geographical regions – Other NSTs associated with “bow echo” type storms - almost no forecast/nowcast skill Tornado Climatology (where are NSTs most prevalent?) NST • Boundaries such, as DCVZ, can be prolific misocyclone generaon sites NST • RecogniVon of shear signature along the line (implied misocyclone) • What does the boundary provide? – Horizontal shear zone (verVcal vortex sheet) • Supports misocyclones – Convergence zone • Strengthens vortex sheet • Provides deep moist convecVve forcing – Boundary-induced verVcal circulaons may provide correct “matching” verVcal shear with ambient environment to get deep upright updras Horizontal Shear Instability Lee and Wilhelmson (1993) Lifecycle of NST Genesis "Refined" Model of Non-Supercell Tornadogenesis I & II V III cold old outflow boundary VI IV cold old outflow boundary NST • NST Maintenance Mechanisms 1. Without verVcal vorVcity generaon, NST would only last a few min. 2. Primary maintenance is through vorVcity advecVon along boundary. 3. TilVng of ambient horizontal vorVcity is a secondary mechanism. 4. Stretching of vorVcity from (2) and (3) maintains NST intensity. Tornado Maintenance Mechanisms z y x NST • Role of Parent Storm DowndraL in NSTs – The requirement of vorVcity in (or generated in) the parent storm downdra does not appear important for NST maintenance (unlike some of the current supercell tornadogenesis theories). – The parent storm downdras for NST cases are important for providing peripheral convergence and stretching that may (1) “spin up” an exisVng vorVcity pool or (2) intensify an already tornadic strength circulaon. Note: NSTs are likely strongest when the parent storm downdra inially wraps around the vortex! NST • Nowcasng Guidelines – Environments of liile CAPE (<500 J/kg) possess liile NST risk – Environments of moderate or greater CAPE (>1100 J/kg) may support intense NSTs – A threshold likely exists between 5-10 m/s of velocity change across the boundary of the line-parallel wind, above which, the boundary is a viable NST iniVaon site NST • Misocyclone merger events increase the possibility of NST occurrence NST • Single misocyclones along a shear zone are the excepon. – The occurrence of one NST should signal the nowcaster that other NSTs are possible along the common boundary. Tornadogenesis • Storms intersecVng preexisVng mesoscale boundaries, especially boundaries that have had Vme for their cold sides to modify (i.e., the cold side has CAPE and does not have excessive CIN), are oben prime candidates for tornadogenesis. • Tornadogenesis occurs possibly due to the low-level horizontal vorVcity generated density gradients along the boundaries. • Low-level horizontal vorVcity or streamwise vorVcity (vortex lines), needs to be verVcal within a tornado. Tornadogenesis • Vortex lines are ubiquitous. • Convergence of vortex lines increases vorVcity in the local area (i.e. wind shi). • PreexisVng verVcal vorVcity can get enhanced by a developing cumulus situated above the verVcal vortex lines but the anVcyclonic and cyclonic vorVcity will cancel each other out. • The RFD of a supercell only enhances the cyclonic vorVcity. • Tornadogenesis associated with the RFD is sensiVve to the slightness thermal variaon. Tornadogenesis • Streamwise VorVcity or Horizontal VorVcity Tornadogenesis Tornadogenesis • The RFDs of supercells that produce significant tornadoes are not nearly as cold as the RFDs of supercells that are either nontornadic or produce only brief, weak vorVces.
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