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Population Ageing in Central and Eastern Europe Presentation on the occasion of the Launch of the Centre for East European Language Based Area Studies (CEELBAS) at University College London (UCL)
19-20 April 2007
Dr Andreas Hoff, James Martin Research Fellow Oxford Institute of Ageing, University of Oxford
OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing Outline
1. What is population ageing? 2. The drivers of population ageing 3. Demographic trends in Central and Eastern Europe 4. Effects on population structure in CEE 5. The EAST research network
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1. What is Population Ageing?
OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing 1. What is ageing?
= “Ageing is a progressive, generalised impairment of function resulting in an increased probability of death.” (John Maynard Smith) = “Ageing is a harmonious decline of all organ systems leading to increased probability of death.” (Tom Kirkwood)
OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing 1. What is population ageing?
• A population is regarded as being ‘old’ or ‘mature’ when old people outnumber the young ones living in a given country. • Europe is the first continent where older people outnumber children.
OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing 40 ‘Maturing society’ in Europe (1950-2050) 35 30 25 g 20 15 Percenta 10 5 1950 1980 2000 2025 2050 0
0-14 years old 60 years or older
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2. The Drivers of Population Ageing
OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing Factors determining population ageing
1. Mortality ¾ (rising) life expectancy Î more older people 2. Fertility ¾ (declining) birth rates Î fewer younger people 3. Migration patterns ¾ number and age of immigrants/emigrants
OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing Hypothesis on determinants of demographic development in Western and Eastern Europe
Determinants Western Europe Eastern Europe
Life expectancy ÏÒ
Fertility ÎÐ
Migration patterns Immigration Emigration
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3. Demographic Trends in Central and Eastern Europe
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(I) Mortality (life expectancy)
OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing 80 Male life expectancy at birth (Eurostat Population Statistics 2006) RUS 75 EST LAT 70 LIT POL CZ 65 SK HU SLO 60 ROM BUL CRO 55 SER 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2004 BOS 50 MAK ALB EU1 5
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85 Female life expectancy at birth (Eurostat Population Statistics 2006) RUS 80 EST LAT LIT 75 POL CZ 70 SK HU SLO 65 ROM BUL CRO 60 SER 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2004 BOS 55 MAK ALB EU1 5 OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing
(II) Fertility
OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing 3.1 Total fertility rates 2.9 (Eurostat Population Statistics 2006) RUS 2.7 EST LAT 2.5 LIT 2.3 POL CZ 2.1 SK HU 1.9 SLO 1.7 ROM BUL 1.5 CRO SER 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2004 1.3 BOS 1.1 MAK ALB EU1 5
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(III) Migration
OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing Net migration (+ immigration, - emigration) (Eurostat Population Statistics 2006)
30 n EST 20 LAT LIT 10 POL CZ 0 SK 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 HU
(in thousands) -10 SLO -20 ROM BUL Net immigration/emigratio balance -30
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4. Effects on Population Structure in CEE
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(I) Population share of older people
• Percentage of total population aged 60+
OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing Proportion of 60+ 25 (Eurostat Population Statistics 2006) RUS EST LAT 20 LIT POL CZ SK 15 HU SLO ROM BUL 10 CRO SER 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 BOS 5 MAK ALB EU1 5
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(II) Old-age dependency ratio
= number of 65+ per 100 aged 15-64
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Old-age dependency ratio (Eurostat 2005)
60 EST LAT 50 LIT POL 40 CZ SK 30 HU SLO 20 ROM BUL EU15 10 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
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Western Europe got rich before it became old. The Central and Eastern European countries are getting old before they become rich.
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5. The ‘Eastern-European Ageing Societies in Transition’ (EAST) Research Network
OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing Purpose of the EAST Research Network Objectives: • To provide a platform (website) for people with a research interest in demographic ageing and ageing societies in the CEE countries • To build research networks on ageing in CEE • To identify key themes + scope for research on ageing in CEE • Spread news on funding opportunities • Capacity building • Information on relevant research,statistics, literature, etc.
OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing http://www.ageing.ox.ac.uk/
OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing http://www.ageing.ox.ac.uk/home.html
OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing http://www.ageing.ox.ac.uk/east/main.html
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Thank you all very much for your attention!
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