OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing Population Ageing in Central and Eastern Europe Presentation on the occasion of the Launch of the Centre for East European Language Based Area Studies (CEELBAS) at University College London (UCL) 19-20 April 2007 Dr Andreas Hoff, James Martin Research Fellow Oxford Institute of Ageing, University of Oxford OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing Outline 1. What is population ageing? 2. The drivers of population ageing 3. Demographic trends in Central and Eastern Europe 4. Effects on population structure in CEE 5. The EAST research network OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing 1. What is Population Ageing? OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing 1. What is ageing? = “Ageing is a progressive, generalised impairment of function resulting in an increased probability of death.” (John Maynard Smith) = “Ageing is a harmonious decline of all organ systems leading to increased probability of death.” (Tom Kirkwood) OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing 1. What is population ageing? • A population is regarded as being ‘old’ or ‘mature’ when old people outnumber the young ones living in a given country. • Europe is the first continent where older people outnumber children. OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing ‘Maturing society’ in Europe (1950-2050) 40 35 30 g 25 20 15 Percenta 10 5 0 1950 1980 2000 2025 2050 0-14 years old 60 years or older OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing 2. The Drivers of Population Ageing OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing Factors determining population ageing 1. Mortality ¾ (rising) life expectancy Î more older people 2. Fertility ¾ (declining) birth rates Î fewer younger people 3. Migration patterns ¾ number and age of immigrants/emigrants OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing Hypothesis on determinants of demographic development in Western and Eastern Europe Determinants Western Europe Eastern Europe Life expectancy ÏÒ Fertility ÎÐ Migration patterns Immigration Emigration OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing 3. Demographic Trends in Central and Eastern Europe OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing (I) Mortality (life expectancy) OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing Male life expectancy at birth (Eurostat Population Statistics 2006) RUS 80 EST LAT 75 LIT POL 70 CZ SK 65 HU SLO ROM 60 BUL CRO 55 SER BOS 50 MAK 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2004 ALB EU15 OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing Female life expectancy at birth (Eurostat Population Statistics 2006) RUS 85 EST LAT 80 LIT POL 75 CZ SK 70 HU SLO ROM 65 BUL CRO 60 SER BOS 55 MAK 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2004 ALB EU15 OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing (II) Fertility OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing Total fertility rates (Eurostat Population Statistics 2006) RUS 3.1 EST 2.9 LAT 2.7 LIT POL 2.5 CZ 2.3 SK 2.1 HU SLO 1.9 ROM 1.7 BUL CRO 1.5 SER 1.3 BOS 1.1 MAK 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2004 ALB EU15 OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing (III) Migration OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing Net migration (+ immigration, - emigration) (Eurostat Population Statistics 2006) 30 n EST 20 LAT LIT 10 POL CZ 0 SK 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 HU (in thousands) -10 SLO -20 ROM BUL Net immigration/emigratio balance -30 OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing 4. Effects on Population Structure in CEE OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing (I) Population share of older people • Percentage of total population aged 60+ OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing Proportion of 60+ (Eurostat Population Statistics 2006) RUS 25 EST LAT LIT 20 POL CZ SK 15 HU SLO ROM BUL 10 CRO SER BOS 5 MAK 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 ALB EU15 OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing (II) Old-age dependency ratio = number of 65+ per 100 aged 15-64 OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing Old-age dependency ratio (Eurostat 2005) 60 EST LAT 50 LIT POL 40 CZ SK 30 HU SLO 20 ROM BUL EU15 10 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing Western Europe got rich before it became old. The Central and Eastern European countries are getting old before they become rich. OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing 5. The ‘Eastern-European Ageing Societies in Transition’ (EAST) Research Network OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing Purpose of the EAST Research Network Objectives: • To provide a platform (website) for people with a research interest in demographic ageing and ageing societies in the CEE countries • To build research networks on ageing in CEE • To identify key themes + scope for research on ageing in CEE • Spread news on funding opportunities • Capacity building • Information on relevant research,statistics, literature, etc. OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing http://www.ageing.ox.ac.uk/ OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing http://www.ageing.ox.ac.uk/home.html OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing http://www.ageing.ox.ac.uk/east/main.html OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING OxfordOxford InstituteInstitute ofof AgeingAgeing Thank you all very much for your attention! OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING.