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Initiating Coverage | Indian Broking Industry ICICI Direct Research

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Initiating Coverage | Indian Broking Industry ICICI Direct Research IndianIndian Brokerage Industry December 23, 2019 Broking twist: Advantage large brokers… Initiating on… The fragmented Indian broking industry has witnessed an increase in market share of top brokers in volume terms with top 10 brokers now forming 37% Motilal Oswal – Buy – TP | 850 vs. 22% in 2014. In the past few years, Indian equity markets witnessed (Diversified business model with strong rise in average daily turnover (ADTO) at ~34.4% CAGR in FY13-19. presence across capital market Derivatives witnessed robust traction at 35.4% CAGR from | 155400 crore domain, expect to be beneficiary in FY13 to | 959000 crore in FY19 while cash ADTO has increased at ~18.1% of stricter SEBI norms and CAGR in FY13-19 to | 35200 crore. This has led to a reduction in the cash consolidation in industry) segment, declining to only ~3% of total volumes impacting brokers. 5 Paisa – Hold – TP | 205 (Start-up discount broker with The Indian broking industry has a large of number of players, many being Coverage Initiating proprietary in nature while large brokers still offer trading and investment aggressive client acquisition, services to customers. In terms of market share, as per active clients, top 10 consistent revenue growth to drive brokers contribute ~63% in industry size. Among the same, top two brokers valuation) constitute ~15% of market share in active clients, followed by ~46% market IIFL Sec – Buy – TP | 50 share contributed by the next eight players. Top two players constitute 15% (Pure broker with distribution in ADTO of the market. Indian brokers have progressed from being pure strength, relatively cheap on brokers (bank led brokers & non-bank led full service brokers) to distributors valuation) of financial products and business diversification by forming AMC/PE funds, Geojit Fin – Hold – TP | 29 lending through NBFC and setting up ARCs. (Marginal player in aggressive In the wake of changes experienced in the domestic stock market and competitive space, high broking industry, evolution in terms of business model was imminent. In our proportion of cash ADTO remains view, the Indian broking industry is transitioning from a transaction based strength) model to service or fee based model offering services like wealth management and investment advisory. A shift towards a fee based model is Edelweiss Fin – Hold – TP | 125 already in the works with brokers focusing on building advisory model (Balance sheet restructuring (wealth AUM). Apart from advisory services, focus on fund based activities, underway, minimal contribution of including margin funding and loan against shares, is on the rise, enabling retail segment in capital market brokers to build sustainable earnings. Cyclicality of income from volatile revenue) markets/volumes is seen abating as pure brokerage income forms ~50-60% of overall revenue for each player vs. 80-90% few years back. Again, with JM Fin – Hold – TP | 94 Retail Equity Research Equity Retail SEBI tightening norms on managing client funds as float or pledge on client (Strong performance in capital – shares, direct lending by brokers to clients in the form of allowing overdue market business, exposure to real will disappear. Brokers need banks or NBFC tie-up, as they can only take estate remains an overhang) pledge of client shares to fund the client. Bank led brokerages stand to gain both as quick enablers of funding and trust on safety of demat holdings. Research Analyst In a recent circular, SEBI announced new norms on bringing margin for cash Kajal Gandhi [email protected] buy/sell order addition. As we notice, online brokers had practiced the same as clients need to keep margin money before buy order placement and sell Vishal Narnolia Securities ICICI is allowed only from delivery, leading to very negligible impact of new [email protected] norms. All these SEBI norms and intense competition have impacted small Harsh Shah brokers while large brokers are expected to gain market share. [email protected] Traditional brokers emerge strong on earnings The Indian broking industry comprises participants with varied business models from those primarily engaged in capital market activities and others engaged in other financial activities including lending, AMC and ARC. Given the dependence on capital market and inherent cyclicality, we assign PE multiple in range of <15x for peers engaged in capital market. Accordingly, we value pure brokers like IIFL Securities at 8x FY21E EPS and Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services at 12x FY21E standalone EPS. Players with business models in other financial segments are valued on SoTP basis. We value JM Financial at 1x FY21E BV (implying 11.5x FY21E EPS), Edelweiss at 1.4x FY21E BV (implying 16.7x FY21E EPS) and Motilal Oswal at 23x FY21E EPS. 5Paisa as a startup is valued at 4x FY21E revenue. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating on IIFL Sec and Motilal Ostwal and HOLD rating on 5 Paisa, Geojit Financial, Edelweiss Financial Services and JM Financial. Initiating Coverage | Indian Broking Industry ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 1: Valuation | crore CMP TP Rating Mcap PAT (| crore) RoE (%) P/E (x) NW (| crore) P/BV (x) | | | crore FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E Motil.Oswal.Fin. 730 850 Buy 10803 499 539 14 13 21.6 20.0 3809 4349 2.8 2.5 Edelweiss.Fin. 116 125 Hold 10827 343 656 5 8 31.6 16.5 7994 8656 1.4 1.3 JM Financial 91 94 Hold 7699 582 681 11 12 13.2 11.3 7620 7806 1.0 1.0 IIFL Securities 38 50 Buy 1214 164 205 20 21 7.4 5.9 895 1100 1.4 1.1 Geojit Fin. Ser. 28 29 Hold 655 14 20 9 11 46.9 33.5 515 572 1.3 1.1 5Paisa Capital 180 205 Hold 458 2.8 7.2 3 5 163.3 63.6 151 158 3.0 2.9 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2 Initiating Coverage | Indian Broking Industry ICICI Direct Research Industry Trend Indian brokerage industry – perspective and structure The Indian broking industry is very fragmented with large number of participants (~3755/3099 registered with SEBI in cash/derivative market). Many of these may be propriety desk, still a large number of brokers offer trading services to customers. In the last six years, Indian markets have witnessed a spurt in volumes at ~34.4% CAGR from FY13 to FY19. Following global trend of higher tilt towards options, derivatives witnessed robust traction at 35.4% CAGR from | 155400 crore in FY13 to | 959000 crore in FY19, while equity (Cash) ADTO grew only by ~18.1% CAGR in FY13-19 to | 35200 crore. The Indian stock market has undergone developments over several years in terms of yields, products and customer services. In the initial phase, Indian brokerages were to be divided in two categories – bank led brokers and non- bank led brokers. Majority of these brokerages were full service brokers with services spanning from providing platform for trading, settlement services, investment advisory (research), investment banking and wealth management. In order to counter the volatility of markets and thereby business, brokerages started on the path of diversification – the first step being distribution of financial products – insurance and mutual funds. Later, brokerages entered next level of diversification through entry into new line of business spanning from asset management to credit disbursement through NBFC. The Indian brokerage industry has now witnessed entry of new category of brokers – discount brokers that offer basic transactional service at low fixed brokerage irrespective of the size of trade quantum. Apart from transactional service, these brokers provide various product used for analysis and research services at additional cost. Exchange volumes skewed towards derivatives in last 5 years Option segment witnessing higher share at 92% The Indian stock market has been witnessing a continuous rise in volumes 16 traded in FY15-Q2FY20. However, there has been a growing divergence 14 between cash and derivatives product segment. While the proportion of 12 cash segment has remained steady at ~3% of total volumes, option as a 10 8 13.4 product has been gaining prominence with share in total volume rising from 11.4 6 8.7 79% in FY15 to 88% in FY19 and 92% in Q2FY20. 4 5.7 2 2.6 2.3 3.2 Exhibit 2: Market volume tilting towards options crore lakh ADTO| in 0 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 ADTO in | crore FY17 FY18 FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Propn Cash Intraday 16600 23300 26048 Cash Futures Options Cash Delivery 8100 9600 9152 Source: NSE, ICICI Direct Research Cash 24700 33000 35200 33629 34023 2.3% Futures (NSE) 62361 82959 87564 79951 89734 6% Stocks (NSE) 44877 63405 65109 55955 61020 4% Index (NSE) 17484 19555 22455 23996 28714 2% Options (NSE) 318164 587711 870503 1136812 1339202 92% Stocks (NSE) 24627 39248 50735 45480 52299 4% Index (NSE) 293537 548463 819768 1091332 1286903 88% F&O total 382100 671000 959000 1216763 1428936 97.7% Total ADTO 406800 704000 993000 1250392 1462959 Source: NSE, ICICI Direct Research ICICI Securities | Retail Research 3 Initiating Coverage | Indian Broking Industry ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 3: Options forming ~92% of market volume 16 14 12 10 8 13.4 11.4 6 8.7 4 5.7 ADTO in | lakh crore lakh ADTO| in 3.2 2 2.6 2.3 0.9 0.8 0.9 0 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY18 FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Cash Futures Options Source: NSE, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 4: Internet based trading on the rise in last five years 35 30 25 20 15 of total volume) of total 10 (% 5 0 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Cash F&O Source: NSE, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 5: Increase in market share of top five & 10 members 40 35 30 25 20 (%) 15 10 5 0 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Nov-19 Top 10 brokers contribute ~63% of share (Sep’19) Top 5 Top 10 Source: NSE, ICICI Direct Research 13% 37% Snapshot of brokerages in India The Indian broking industry has a large number of players.
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