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Indian Exchanges Equity Research INDIA November 4, 2020 BSE Sensex: 40261 Indian exchanges ICICI Securities Limited is the author and Monthly tracker – Derivatives hit new highs while cash and distributor of this report commodity moderates MCX (HOLD) In Oct’20, cash volumes continued momentum for NSE (ADTV grew 39% YoY), while BSE saw moderation. Cash volumes have cooled from the record highs for both the 2,000 exchanges (NSE and BSE cash ADTV for the month of Aug / Sept / Oct’20 was Rs610 / 1,750 556 / 523bn and Rs44 / 32 / 28bn respectively). NSE derivatives ADTV grew robust 1,500 79% YoY and has been inching higher. (Aug /Sep / Oct’20 ADTV was Rs19 / 22 / 26bn). 1,250 MCX commodity ADTV (ex-crude) was up 70% YoY. Overall, MCX ADTV was up 13% (Rs) 1,000 YoY in Oct’20 but has been declining on MoM basis (Aug /Sep / Oct’20 ADTV was 750 Rs409 /316 / 305bn). Crude futures witnessed a MoM increase of 7%. Currency 500 derivatives ADTV rose 17% YoY in Oct’20 (NSE: +46% YoY and BSE: -26% YoY). Equity cash: Trend remains strong for NSE while BSE saw moderation. Oct-18 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Nov-17 May-18 May-19 In Oct’20, NSE’s ADTV (average daily turnover value) came in at Rs523bn, up 39% YoY, clocking tenth consecutive month of healthy growth. Number of trades grew 23% YoY in Oct’20. BSE’s Oct’20 cash ADTV was Rs27.5bn, down 2.7% YoY. BSE’s exclusive segment came in at Rs586mn, up 73% YoY. On MoM basis, NSE / BSE cash ADTV has declined 6% / 13% in Oct’20, respectively. NSE’s market share stood at 95% in Oct’20. FY21-TD, NSE’s market share in equity cash segment stands at 94% vs 93% in FY20 and 91% in FY19. Equity derivatives: Options ADTV at an all-time high NSE’s total equity derivatives’ ADTV rose 79% YoY to Rs26.3trn (considering notional turnover in options) in Oct’20. Futures and options ADTV grew 14.7% and 83% YoY, respectively. Currency derivatives: NSE gains market share, BSE continues to decline In Oct’20, NSE’s currency derivatives’ ADTV grew robust 46% YoY to Rs522bn and that of BSE fell 22% YoY to Rs204bn. NSE’s market share in currency derivatives stood at 72% in Oct’20. MF trading data: BSE holds dominant position Number of orders traded on BSE’s mutual fund platform grew 64% YoY to 7.7mn in Oct’20. NSE posted 26% YoY growth under the same parameter to 1.53mn. In value terms, BSE’s market share in online mutual funds stood at 75.2% in FY21-TD vs 73% in FY20. FY21TD number of order for BSE/NSE grew 61%/26% YoY, respectively. Commodity derivatives: Receding bullion volumes drag ADTV down 3% MoM in Oct’20. MCX reported an ADTV of Rs330bn in Oct’20, up 13% YoY (down 3% MoM). Decline in ADTV on a MoM basis was driven by decline in gold volumes while silver ADTV was down due to fall in prices. Crude oil ADTV continues to remain lower as higher margin requirement continued in Oct’20. Gold/silver ADTVOL declined 19% / 2% MoM. Crude oil segment witnessed a positive growth on MoM basis but still remains significantly lower compared to pre-Covid levels. On YoY basis, gold/silver/natural gas/copper ADTV grew 27/106/188/56% YoY, respectively. Crude ADTV declined 78% YoY. Ex-crude ADTV grew 70% YoY. On MoM basis, ADTV of gold/silver/copper declined 19/7/3/% MoM. NCDEX’s ADTV grew 16% YoY (+19% MoM) to Rs15.5bn in Oct’20. Depository: CDSL maintains dominant market share in incremental demat accounts Data till Sep’20 shows CDSL/NSDL market share stood at 56/44%, respectively. Research Analysts: In terms of incremental accounts opened in FY21TD, CDSL has maintained a dominant Ansuman Deb share of 87% vs 76% in FY20. [email protected] NSE active clients: Zerodha remains market leader in terms of NSE active clients +91 22 6637 7312 Data till Sep’20 shows that NSE’s active clients increased 9% MoM to 13.5mn Ravin Kurwa [email protected] In terms of incremental active clients market share, Zerodha broking and RKSV securities +91 22 2277 7653 held a dominant market share of 22% and 21% respectively Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Indian exchanges, November 4, 2020 ICICI Securities India equity cash Chart 1: NSE equity cash – monthly turnover Chart 2: BSE equity cash – monthly turnover 16.0 1.2 1.1 1413 14.0 13 12 1.0 0.9 12.0 11 0.8 0.8 10 10 0.8 0.8 10.0 9 0.7 8 8 8 0.7 8 8 0.6 0.6 7 7 0.6 0.60.5 0.60.6 8.0 7 7 7 7 0.6 0.5 0.50.5 6 6 6 0.50.5 6 6 0.4 0.4 6.0 (Rs trn) (Rs (Rs trn) (Rs 0.4 4.0 2.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Jun-19 Jun-20 Feb-19 Feb-20 Dec-18 Dec-19 Aug-19 Aug-20 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Jun-19 Jun-20 Feb-19 Feb-20 Dec-19 Aug-19 Aug-20 Chart 3: NSE equity cash – monthly ADTV Chart 4: BSE equity cash – monthly ADTV 700 60 611 556 50 600 50 44 523 43 500 39 40 34 35 32 32 400 30 29 27 26 282827 28 28 30 25 25 25 25 24 25 300 21 (Rs bn) (Rs 21 (Rs bn) (Rs 20 200 100 10 0 0 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-19 Jul-20 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Jan-19 Jun-19 Jan-20 Jun-20 Mar-19 Mar-20 Jan-19 Jan-20 Feb-19 Feb-20 Nov-18 Dec-18 Nov-19 Dec-19 Sep-18 Aug-19 Sep-19 Aug-20 Sep-20 Mar-19 Mar-20 Sep-18 Nov-18 Sep-19 Nov-19 Sep-20 May-19 May-20 May-19 May-20 Chart 5: NSE equity cash – number of trades Chart 6: BSE equity cash – number of trades 60 56 51 48 50 41 40 40 35 36 32 31 31 27 28 30 25 26 26 25 25 26 26 25 (mn) 23 21 22 20 10 - Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Jun-19 Jun-20 Feb-19 Feb-20 Dec-18 Aug-19 Dec-19 Aug-20 Source: NSE, BSE, I-Sec research 2 Indian exchanges, November 4, 2020 ICICI Securities In equity cash Chart 7: Equity cash – market share in terms of turnover segment, NSE maintained its NSE BSE 100% dominant market 8 8 9 8 8 7 10 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 5 6 8 6 7 5 5 share in Oct’20 in 90% 80% terms of total 70% turnover at 95%. 60% 50% 92 92 91 92 92 93 90 92 93 93 94 93 93 93 94 94 94 93 92 95 94 92 94 93 95 95 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Jul-19 Jul-20 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Jan-19 Jun-19 Jan-20 Jun-20 Feb-19 Mar-19 Feb-20 Mar-20 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Aug-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Aug-20 Sep-20 May-19 May-20 Source: NSE, BSE, I-Sec research In FY20, NSE’s ADTV grew 14% Chart 8: Equity cash – market share in terms of number of trades YoY to Rs364bn NSE BSE whereas BSE’s 100% 11 ADTV fell 14.4% 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 9 9 8 9 9 8 9 10 11 10 9 9 8 12 11 10 10 90% YoY to Rs26.7bn. 80% Hence, NSE’s 70% market share was at 60% an all-time high of 50% 90 90 90 90 90 90 89 91 91 92 91 91 92 91 90 89 90 91 91 92 89 88 89 90 90 93% in FY20 vis-a- 40% vis 91% in FY19 and 30% 87% in FY18 in the 20% 10% equity cash segment. 0% Jul-19 Jul-20 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Jan-19 Jun-19 Jan-20 Jun-20 Feb-19 Mar-19 Feb-20 Mar-20 Nov-18 Dec-18 Aug-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Aug-20 Sep-20 May-19 May-20 Source: NSE, BSE, I-Sec research Chart 9: NSE equity cash – ADTV trend Chart 10: BSE equity cash – ADTV trend 600 562 50 44 45 40 500 40 35 36 35 400 364 30 31 321 30 27 294 300 25 22 21 (Rs bn) (Rs (Rs bn) (Rs 204 20 178 172 200 15 108 112 10 100 5 - - TD TD FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 Source: NSE, BSE, I-Sec research 3 Indian exchanges, November 4, 2020 ICICI Securities Chart 11: Equity cash – annual volume trend Chart 12: Equity cash – annual market share trend NSE BSE Total NSE BSE 100 100 90 13 9 7 90 17 16 16 15 16 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 93 (Rs trn) (Rs 40 91 (%) 87 40 83 84 84 85 84 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Source: NSE, BSE, I-Sec research 4 Indian exchanges, November 4, 2020 ICICI Securities India equity derivatives Chart 13: NSE equity futures – turnover Chart 14: NSE equity options – turnover 25 2324 23 600 22 531 22 21 21 20 19 500 20 18181918 18 452 17 17 18 416 1616 1616 16 16 15 15 400 366 373 344 15 330 287 300 267 270276 273 242 254 236 226 231 210 10 203 203 202 191 (Rs trn) (Rs trn) (Rs 200 168176 174 5 100 0 0 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-19 Jun-20 Feb-19 Feb-20 Feb-19 Feb-20 Dec-18 Aug-19 Dec-19 Aug-20 Dec-18 Aug-19 Dec-19 Aug-20 Chart 15: NSE equity futures – ADTV trend Chart 16: NSE equity options – ADTV trend 1,200 996 1,000 875 875 830 800 624 600 510 501 (Rs bn) (Rs 400 320 271 200 - FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 Chart 17: Equity derivatives – volume trend Chart 18: Equity derivatives – market share trend NSE BSE Total NSE BSE 4000 100 3500 6 19 19 90 27 3000 80 2500 70 60 2000 50 94 100 100 100 100 (Rs trn) (Rs (%) 81 81 1500 40 73 30 1000 20 500 10 0 0 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Source: NSE, BSE, I-Sec research Note: In the case of options, turnover is notional 5 Indian exchanges, November 4, 2020 ICICI Securities India currency derivatives Chart 19: NSE currency derivatives – ADTV Chart 20: BSE currency derivatives – ADTV Currency Futures Currency Options Currency Futures Currency Options 400 250 350 200 300 250 150 200 (Rs bn) (Rs 150 bn) (Rs 100 100 50 50 - - Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Jun-19 Jun-20 Feb-19 Feb-20 Dec-18 Aug-19 Dec-19 Aug-20 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Jun-19 Jun-20 Feb-19 Feb-20 Dec-18 Aug-19 Dec-19 Aug-20 Chart 21: Currency futures – turnover Chart 22: Currency options – turnover NSE BSE MSEI 7.0 NSE BSE MSEI 8.0 7.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 (Rs trn) (Rs (Rs trn) (Rs 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 - - Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Jun-19 Jun-20 Feb-19 Feb-20 Dec-18 Dec-19 Aug-19 Aug-20 Jul-19 Jul-20 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Jan-19 Jun-19 Jan-20 Jun-20 Feb-19 Mar-19 Feb-20 Mar-20 Nov-18 Dec-18 Nov-19 Dec-19 Sep-18 Aug-19 Sep-19 Aug-20 Sep-20 May-19 May-20 Source: NSE, BSE, MSEI, I-Sec research Note: In the case of options, turnover is notional Chart 23: Currency futures – market share In Oct’20, NSE’s NSE BSE MSEI currency futures’ 100% ADTV grew 50% 90% 24 23 29 27 26 28 31 27 36 35 32 35 32 YoY to Rs265bn.
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