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Equity Research Equity Research INDIA May 26, 2021 BSE Sensex: 50638 Angel Broking BUY ICICI Securities Limited is the author and distributor of this report Digital transformation to continue rerating Rs715 Angel Broking (ABL) has successfully transformed into a digital broking platform operating in a flat-fee business model resulting in strong growth in revenues (up Initiating coverage 98% in FY21) and active clients (up 171% in FY21) with cost efficiency (EBITDA margin of 48% in FY21 vs 29% in FY20). The successful transformation of the Financial Services business model underlines execution capability of the franchise in retail broking space. Appointment of Narayan Gangadhar as its new CEO (strong tech experience with Google, Amazon, Uber and Ola) holds promise as ABL seeks to further build digital capabilities. We estimate PAT to clock 16% CAGR between FY21-FY23E and Target price Rs900 value the stock at 18x FY23E EPS of Rs50. Initiate with BUY and target price of Rs900. Shareholding pattern Full-scale digital platform and discount brokerage model has transformed the Sep Dec Mar business: Between FY19 and FY21, total broking turnover increased from Rs2.6bn to '20 '20 '21 Promoters 44.6 44.6 44.6 Rs5.4bn, active clients rose from 0.4mn to 1.6bn, and NSE-active client market share Institutional grew from 5% to 8.3%. This transformation is credited to the digital discount broking investors 13.0 17.1 17.0 MFs and others 7.0 11.6 11.9 business model started by the company in late 2019. Sub-broker driven revenues have Insurance 0.6 0.1 0.1 increased from Rs988mn in FY20 to Rs1.6bn in FY21 whereas direct flat-fee revenues FIIs 5.4 5.4 5.0 Others 42.4 38.3 38.4 rose from Rs703mn in FY20 (operational only for a quarter) to Rs3.3bn in FY21. Source: CMIE Majority of new clients have been added to the flat-fee plan since Q1FY20, hence the traditional direct business revenues will understandably decline hereon (traditional plan brokerage revenue mix in net brokerage revenues stood at 75% FY20 and declined to Price chart 39% FY21). We expect traditional plan mix to decline further to 31% / 29% in 800 FY22E/FY23E. 700 MTF lending is a high-margin business. Net interest revenues from the margin 600 trading facility (MTF) stood at ~Rs1.6bn for ABL in FY21. This is a steadier business 500 stream, but with high margin (NIM at ~9%). The granular nature of the book (Rs) 400 300 collateralised by underlying stock portfolio keeps credit costs in check. We expect 200 FY22E/FY23E average MTF book at Rs11bn/Rs12.3bn respectively (Rs11.8bn at 100 FY21-end) in line with growth in cash volumes. 5-Oct 6-Mar EBITDA margins have sustained (48% in FY21) despite strong client growth. 20-Dec 21-May FY21 total operating costs grew 39% vs net revenue growth of 89%. Employee costs were up 8% YoY to Rs1.7bn while other income was 68% YoY higher at Rs2.98bn due to robust client addition during the year. Management believes the payback period of the cost of acquisition has reduced dramatically post digital transition. Risks: Brokerage industry is dependent on the capital markets, hence any general economic and market consolidation in India or globally can affect overall revenues. Company is also subject to extensive statutory and regulatory requirements; hence, any non-compliance can have a bearing on operations. The business is highly dependent on IT and any risks / operational failures can lead to loss of revenues. Market Cap Rs58.3bn/US$801mn Year to Mar FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E Bloomberg ANGELBRK IN Revenue (Rs mn) 4,753 8,971 9,855 11,030 Shares Outstanding (mn) 81.9 Net Income (Rs mn) 867 3,066 3,504 4,090 52-week Range (Rs) 752/225 EPS (Rs) 12.1 37.5 42.8 50.0 Free Float (%) 55.4 % Chg YoY -15% 254% 14% 17% Research Analysts: FII (%) 5.0 CEPS (Rs) 15.0 39.7 45.3 52.7 Daily Volume (US$'000) 3,062 EBITDA Margin (%) 29.4 47.9 49.4 51.4 Ansuman Deb Absolute Return 3m (%) 117.5 P/E 59.2 19.1 16.7 14.3 [email protected] +91 22 6637 7312 Absolute Return 12m (%) NA Dividend Yield 0.0 1.8 2.1 2.4 Ravin Kurwa Sensex Return 3m (%) (0.7) RoCE (%) 11.0 17.9 17.3 17.2 [email protected] Sensex Return 12m (%) 66.9 RoE (%) 15.2 35.6 28.1 27.4 +91 22 2277 7653 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Angel Broking, May 26, 2021 ICICI Securities TABLE OF CONTENT Industry overview ............................................................................................................ 3 Exchange turnover has clocked 30% CAGR between FY11-21 .................................... 3 Expect growth to continue due to systemic under penetration ....................................... 4 Rising financial savings and digitalisation remain long-term growth levers .................... 6 Imminent consolidation is an advantage for well-entrenched incumbents ..................... 8 Player wise service offering ............................................................................................ 9 Brokerage industry aggregate statistics ........................................................................ 10 Retail participation holds fort until now despite upfront margin norms. ........................ 10 Case study on evolution of digital brokers in the US market ........................................ 12 Angel Broking---Revenue deep dive ............................................................................ 14 Net brokerage clocked 25% CAGR between FY16-FY21 ............................................ 14 Brokerage modelling ..................................................................................................... 16 Modelling income from Margin Trading Facility ............................................................ 18 New segments, other services hold option values ........................................................ 20 Fixed nature of expenses offers operating leverage ................................................. 23 Investment thesis ........................................................................................................... 25 Market share in retail segment continues to improve… ................................................ 25 … led by robust client acquisition strategy … ............................................................... 26 … which in turn has also aided increase in NSE-active client base ............................. 27 Digital capabilities will ensure operating leverage benefits ........................................... 28 New CEO’s illustrative background holds promise ....................................................... 30 Additional business opportunity offer option value ....................................................... 30 FY21 result review: Flagship year with Rs3bn profit ................................................. 31 Financials and Valuation ............................................................................................... 32 Risks ................................................................................................................................ 33 Financial summary ........................................................................................................ 34 Index of Tables and Charts ........................................................................................... 36 *BSE Sensex and CMP are as on May 25, 2021 2 Angel Broking, May 26, 2021 ICICI Securities Industry overview Exchange turnover has clocked 30% CAGR between FY11-21 Indian exchanges have witnessed strong growth of across segments led by derivatives. Between FY11-FY20, cash segment turnover grew at 16%, equity derivatives 44%, and currency derivatives 9%, but commodity derivatives declined by 2% -- all in CAGR terms. Chart 1: Total cash turnover in NSE and BSE has Chart 2: …so has turnover in equity futures across seen strong growth… FY01-FY21. 180.0 Cash 300 Equity Futures 160.0 250 140.0 120.0 200 100.0 150 (Rs trn) (Rs (Rs trn) (Rs 80.0 60.0 100 40.0 50 20.0 0.0 - FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY12 Source: NSE, BSE, I-Sec research Source: NSE, BSE, I-Sec research Chart 3: There has also been strong growth in Chart 4: …while MCX commodities turnover equity options too… dipped due to introduction of CTT in FY12 and latest year growth was hit due to sharp decline in crude oil volumes. 7,000 Equity options 156 6,000 149 5,000 98 86 4,000 84 80 (Rs trn) (Rs 66 (Rs trn) (Rs 64 3,000 56 59 54 46 52 31 2,000 23 10 2 1,000 - FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY01 Source: NSE, BSE, I-Sec research Source: MCX, I-Sec research 3 Angel Broking, May 26, 2021 ICICI Securities Expect growth to continue due to systemic under penetration Falling interest rate cycle, coupled with low returns from traditional investment instruments such as gold and real estate, has led to shift in retail investor interest to the capital markets. Chart 5: Depository accounts have seen a huge rise in FY21, indicating rising equity culture at individual levels 60.0 55.1 56.9 50.0 40.9 40.0 35.9 31.9 27.9 30.0 25.4 21.8 23.3 (in mn) (in 20.0 21.0 20.0 10.0 - Apr-21 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-12 Source: NSE India, I-Sec research Penetration levels of number of people investing in stock market remains extremely
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