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By Dr. Dave Seerattan Research Fellow Caribbean Centre for Money

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By Dr. Dave Seerattan Research Fellow Caribbean Centre for Money Inside this issue: THE LESSONS FROM IMF FISCAL POLICY ADVICE AND POLICY Pg 1 IMPLEMENTATION IN THE CARIBBE- AN FEBRUARY 2014 Newsletter : Volume 7, No. 2 REGIONAL NEWS SUMMARY Pg 2 CONFERENCE SET TO EXAMINE THE SIGNIFICANCE OF VENTURE Pg 5 THE LESSONS FROM IMF FISCAL POLICY ADVICE CAPITAL TO THE REGIONAL TRANSFORMATION AGENDA AND POLICY IMPLEMENTATION IN THE CARIBBEAN The present difficult international economic environment and recovery taking longer than expected to appear but global the seemingly intractable fiscal and debt sustainability problems growth resuming at relatively muted levels, especially in devel- that confront many Caribbean governments, present them with a oped market economies. This meant the anticipated rebound in serious dilemma as to whether to embark on austerity measures fiscal revenues flowing from more robust foreign demand was in a bid to contain the damage or to try to ride out the crisis by slow in coming and was also muted. Weak fiscal accounts in the borrowing to make up for revenue shortfalls. Given this very region therefore continued to be a feature of the regional land- challenging fiscal situation, much of the policy advice from the scape with the attendant increase in indebtedness. When it be- multilateral institutions over the last decade had focused on the came apparent that this strategy was flawed because of optimis- need to promote fiscal and debt sustainability1. tic assumptions about the rebound of the global economy and given the already high vulnerability of many countries in the Recent IMF policy advice has generally highlighted the need for region in this area, many had no choice but to take the hard deci- Caribbean economies to reduce public debt, increase savings and sion to institute some level of fiscal consolidation to arrest the resist the pressure to increase wages and subsidies2. The Fund situation. This was also informed by the growing realisation that encourages greater efforts to generate fiscal savings to stabilize the uncertainty that comes from unsustainable fiscal and debt and reduce public debt over the medium term as their debt sus- dynamics can be as, or even more, damaging to growth pro- tainability analysis suggests that the average Caribbean country spects than consolidation efforts. In many cases these policies will need to increase its primary balance by at least four percent- were also tied to the receipt of funding from multilateral institu- age points of GDP through revenue-raising, expenditure-cutting tions. or a combination of these measures. Much of the policy discus- sions have also centered on the growth implications of the fiscal These developments highlight one of the main weaknesses of the strategy adopted given that renewed growth remains a central fiscal policy strategy of many countries in the region, that is, fis- policy objective in all countries, especially those where growth cal policy has generally been pro-cyclical with fiscal consolida- has been muted for some time. In any case, all the stakeholders tion not being implemented when demand was buoyant but ra- recognise that there can be no long-term solution to the fiscal and ther in periods when aggregate demand and growth was weak, debt problems in the region if growth remains muted. leading to greater costs in terms of lost growth and employment. The highest uptake of the IFIs more sensitive advice therefore The national authorities have in most cases agreed with the poli- tends to occur in bust conditions when it is very costly to do so. cy proscriptions of the IMF in most areas but have often disa- The most important lesson to be learned from the interplay of greed with the pace and scale of policy implementation. In par- IMF fiscal policy advice and the implementation of fiscal consoli- ticular, they have generally preferred to exercise more forbear- dation in the Caribbean is that governments must be more proac- ance rather than use pre-emptive action where fiscal consolida- tive in implementing needed and often unpopular policy advice tion efforts were concerned, in many instances opting to put off and initiatives since delays in the implementation of needed re- necessary adjustment until there was little room to manoeuvre. forms generally tend to make a bad situation worst. This perspective is informed by the political unpopularity of fiscal consolidation efforts, especially during periods of relatively strong growth but also current thinking which indicates the fiscal 1See forthcoming IADB policy brief "To Cut or not to Cut" by V. Mercer-Blackman consolidation during depressed economic conditions prolongs and D. Seerattan. 2Western Hemisphere: Regional Economic Outlook, April 2012, International Mone- the bust cycle. tary Fund. The years following the international financial crisis therefore saw many countries in the region attempt to mitigate the adverse impact of falling demand by practicing counter-cyclical fiscal policy financed by borrowing with a view to eliminating deficits By Dr. Dave Seerattan in the medium term, rather than front loading fiscal adjustments to deal with imbalances. This strategy was predicated on the Research Fellow global economy recovering in the timelines projected by many Caribbean Centre for Money and Finance leading multilateral institutions. These timelines have, however, not only proven to be optimistic with signs of global economic Page 2 Newsletter : Volume 7, No. 2 REGIONAL NEWS SUMMARY CL FINANCIAL Oil Limited. According to reports from Nassau, the sale is ex- pected to cost around US$80 million and is subject to require- The Barbados government says it will shortly approve a new ments including the “protection” of local gas station operators. plan for the restructuring of the operations of the Colonial Life (BN 6 Jan) Insurance Company here. (Carib360 9 Jan) The landscape of the East Bank of Demerara, in addition to the For the second time in less than two months, a High Court expansion of the four-lane highway, has seen another change judge has ruled that the T&T Central Bank Amendment Act of with the opening of the multimillion dollar Park Vue Hotel at 2011, which protects the cash-strapped CL Financial and its Farm. (GCO 6 Jan) subsidiaries from legal action, is unconstitutional and In Jamaica, the new National Minimum Wage of J$5,600 per 40 void. (TG 15 Jan) -hour work-week, or $140 per hour, took effect on January 6, Claims filed by two insurance agents challenging the constitu- 2014. (JO 6 Jan) tionality of the Central Bank (Amendment) Act 2011, which Surinam Government retirees are eager to take to the streets to prevented them from taking legal action against failed insur- demonstrate. They fume because their pensions have dropped ance company CLICO were dismissed by High Court judge in value since December 2012. (die Ware Tijd 7 Jan) Justice Ricky Rahim. (TE 15 Jan) The government of Dominica has received the second fixed tranche of funds under the 10th European Development Fund Multi-Sector General Budget Support Programme. The GSPS is CARIBBEAN the main tool to foster economic development and poverty reduction in Dominica. (CNnow 7 Jan) A new United Nations report says economic growth in Latin Barbados’ Minister of Finance Chris Sinckler served up a mix- America and the Caribbean declined in 2013 but is predicted to ture of bitter medicine and hope under his 2014 economic re- improve over the next two years. (TG 1 Jan) vival programme, but assured no more taxation at this time A Barbadian restaurant now operating at Limegrove Lifestyle (BN 7 Jan) Centre is on the verge of branching out with the investment of Acting Finance Minister, Vasant Bharath, met with members of thousands of dollars by an award-winning Scottish chef. The the US-Based consultancy firm, The Medici Group, to discuss foreign shareholders who own and operate Wedgwood The the further development of Trinidad and Tobago’s financial Restaurant are said to be investing B$60 000 in the business to services sector. “The Medici Group has done work of this na- make the expansion a reality. (BN 2 Jan) ture throughout the world and we’ve just engaged them to The IDB has announced the approval of a $40.5 million grant really develop the financial services sector, particularly with to expand the Caracol Industrial Park, a modern manufactur- regard to business process outsourcing (and) developing capi- ing facility in northern Haiti. The resources will bolster the tal markets in Trinidad.” (Newsd 7 Jan) Haitian government’s efforts to attract more job-generating T&T has been ranked among the best places in Latin America investments in an economically disadvantaged but potentially for the economic freedom it offers to foreign direct investors productive region. (CNnow 3 Jan) (TG 7 Jan) Royal Dutch Shell plc announced completion of the acquisition National Commercial Bank (Jamaica) says it has taken a deci- of Repsol’s LNG portfolio outside North America for a head- sion to quit the remittance business effective January 22, be- line cash consideration of US$4.1 billion. As part of the trans- cause the continued provision of remittance services has nega- action, Shell will also assume US$1.6 billion of balance sheet tively impacted the global risks facing the NCB Group. (JO 7 liabilities relating to existing leases for LNG ship charters, sub- Jan) stantially increasing the shipping capacity available to Shell’s In response to serious damage caused by a Low Level Trough LNG marketing business. (TG 3 Jan) System in the Eastern Caribbean region, the European Com- Global credit ratings agency Standard and Poor’s has predict- mission’s Department of Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protec- ed a 2.6% per capita GDP rise in Trinidad and Tobago for 2014 tion has released more than €300,000 to bring immediate relief thanks to both recovering energy output and continued to the populations most affected by floods.
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