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Kansas Casino Market Study Task1 – Estimates of Gaming Revenues for a Generic Casino to Be Located in Each of the Four Gaming Zones Final Report

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Kansas Casino Market Study Task1 – Estimates of Gaming Revenues for a Generic Casino to Be Located in Each of the Four Gaming Zones Final Report Kansas Casino Market Study Task1 – Estimates of gaming revenues for a generic casino to be located in each of the four gaming zones Final Report Prepared For: Kansas Lottery Gaming Facility Review Board May 26, 2008 Prepared By: Wells Gaming Research 495 Apple Street, Suite 205 Reno, NV 89502 775-826-3232 http://www.wellsgaming.com Kansas Casino Market Study & Gaming Revenue Projections Table of Contents Page: Section 1: Introduction & Executive Summary Introduction 1-1 Research Methodology & Scope of Work 1-3 Map - Geographical Trade Areas for the Gaming Zones 1-4 Summary of the Research Results for Kansas 1-6 Limiting Conditions 1-11 Section 2: Northeast Gaming Zone Summary of the Trade Area 2-1 Map - Northeast Trade Area 2-2 Detailed Report for the Northeast Gaming Zone Trade Area 2-7 Status Quo for the Northeast Trade Area 2-10 Status Quo Gaming Capacity 2-12 Analysis of Gaming Revenue Scenarios 2-13 Section 3: Southeast Gaming Zone Summary for the Trade Area 3-1 Map - Southeast Trade Area 3-3 Detailed Analyses for the Trade Area for the Southeast Gaming Zone 3-8 2007 Status Quo for the Southeast Trade Area 3-12 Status Quo Casino Capacity 3-14 Scenario Results for the Southeast Casino Zone Trade Area (Revenue Forecasts) 3-16 Section 4: South Central Gaming Zone Summary of the Trade Area 4-1 Map - South Central Trade Area 4-2 Detailed Analysis of the Trade Area for the South Central Gaming Zone 4-6 Status Quo for the South Central Trade Area 4-9 Current Casino Gaming Capacity for the South Central Trade Area 4-11 Analyses of the Gaming Revenue Scenarios 4-13 Section 5: Southwest Gaming Zone Summary of the Trade Area 5-1 Map - Southwest Trade Area 5-2 Detailed Analyses for the Trade Area for the Southwest Gaming Zone 5-6 Status Quo Casino Revenues & Visitors for the Southwest Zone's Trade Area 5-8 Status Quo Estimates of Casino Revenue Flows 5-9 Status Quo Southwest Trade Area Capacity 5-10 Future Capacity with Casino Growth 5-10 Scenario Analyses for the Southwest Trade Area (Revenue Forecasts) 5-11 Section 6: Wells Gaming Research Company Information Services Offered & Richard H. Wells, Experience & Qualifications 6-1 Wells Gaming Research May 2008 Kansas Casino Market Study & Gaming Revenue Projections Section 1 Wells Gaming Research May 2008 Kansas Casino Market Study & Gaming Revenue Projections Introduction The State of Kansas has lost gaming revenues for many years to a number of surrounding states, particularly to Missouri and Oklahoma. The recent development of numerous tribal casinos in Oklahoma exacerbated the problem. In an effort to stem the flow of gaming revenues and related taxes, Kansas’ legislators passed Senate Bill 66 (the Kansas Expanded Lottery Act), which legalized casino gaming. SB 66 was signed by the governor in 2007. Key Provisions of Senate Bill 66 Some key provisions of SB 66 that pertain to this study include: 1. Establishment of four casino gaming zones: • Northeast (located in Wyandotte County) • Southeast (located in Crawford and Cherokee Counties) • South Central (located in Sumner and Sedgwick Counties) • Southwest (located in Ford County) 2. Building one state owned casino in each of the four Kansas gaming zones listed above. 3. Permitting an aggregate of 2,800 slot machines to be installed at the three existing racetracks. Senate Bill 66 required the counties located within the four subject gaming zones to hold referendum elections for the purpose of either approving or disapproving casino gaming, or slot machines to be located at their respective racetracks. Three gaming zones have racetracks (northeast, southeast, and south central). However, Sedgwick County, located in the south central gaming zone, rejected gaming in their referendum election. As a result, slot machines will be limited to two Kansas racetracks: Woodlands Race Track located in the Kansas City, Kansas (northeast gaming zone), and Camptown Greyhound Park (closed since November 2000) located near Frontenac, Kansas (southeast gaming zone). The Kansas Lottery Commission has appointed an independent Lottery Gaming Facility Review Board to review all of the gaming applications and select the best ones. The Board has engaged a number of outside consulting firms to help with the reviewing process. To date, six gaming applications have been received for the northeast zone, one for the southeast zone, four for the south central zone, and two for the southwest zone. The applicants that are selected will be contract managers of the gaming facilities acting on behalf of the Kansas Lottery Commission. As planned, the state will own and/or control the gaming portion of the facilities. However, the lottery will select a contract manager who will manage the gaming. The contract managers that are selected will fund, build, and operate all of the facilities under contract with the state lottery. The contract managers will also be required to pay the following taxes that are all based on a percentage of casino gaming revenues: May 2008 Wells Gaming Research Page 1-1 Kansas Casino Market Study & Gaming Revenue Projections • The lottery facility would pay a minimum of 22% of gaming revenues to the state plus an additional 2% to fund programs for problem gamblers and gaming addictions issues. • If a lottery gaming facility were located in either the northeast or southwest gaming zones, but not in a city, the gaming facility would be required to pay an additional 3% of gaming revenues to the county where the gaming facility was located. • If, on the other hand, the gaming facility were located in a city, the facility would pay 1.5% of gaming revenues to the city and 1.5% to the county. • If the lottery gaming facility were located in either the southeast or the south central gaming zone, but not in a city, the gaming facility would pay 2% of gaming revenues to the county in which the facility were located, and an additional 1% to the other county in the gaming zone (each gaming zone has two counties). • If a gaming facility were located in a city, a combined tax equal to 3% of gaming revenues would be paid to the city (1%), to the county in which the facility were located (1%), and to the second county in the gaming zone (1%). These state owned casinos are unique and will be the first state owned casinos in the US. Assessment of the Kansas Gaming Revenue Potential Before enactment of Senate Bill 66 (the Kansas Expanded Lottery Act), the Kansas Lottery Commission engaged Christensen Capital to update their study addressing the gaming revenue potential for the four Kansas gaming zones. The updated study was released in March of 2008. To verify the gaming revenue potential, the Kansas Lottery Gaming Facility Review Board has engaged a team of casino gaming consultants including Wells Gaming Research (WGR) and Cummings & Associates. Both WGR and Cummings were engaged to conduct independent evaluations of the gaming revenue potential as stated in Task 1 of the work assignment. In essence, Task 1 requires a market analysis of each of the gaming zones in Kansas that have been authorized for casino gaming. This involved estimating the gross gaming revenues potential for a generic casino (not associated with any of the proposals) to be located in each of the gaming zones, and projecting the potential revenue generation for the State of Kansas. The results of studies conducted by WGR and Cummings will be compared with the Christensen Study that was commissioned by the Lottery. In compliance with the Kansas Lottery Gaming Facility Review Board’s Task 1 assignment, WGR has conducted an independent assessment of the gaming revenue potential of the four gaming zones. WGR’s work has been conducted totally independent of the work performed by either Cummings or Christensen. May 2008 Wells Gaming Research Page 1-2 Kansas Casino Market Study & Gaming Revenue Projections Research Methodology & Scope of Work To assess the gaming revenue potential of the four Kansas gaming zones, Wells Gaming Research utilized its proprietary gravity modeling system to developed gravity models for each of the subject gaming zones. Each gravity model was customized to reflect the market conditions of the respective gaming zone. The geographical trade areas for the gaming zones are illustrated by the circles on the map on page 1-4. The trade area boundaries for each of the gaming zones extend approximately 100 miles from the proposed casino sites. Some degree of overlap does occur between the boundaries of the gaming zones. The casinos proposed for Kansas, together with the two racetracks (the Woodlands in Wyandotte County, and Camptown Greyhound Park in Crawford County) have been plotted on the map. Also shown are the existing casinos with which the new Kansas gaming facilities will be competing. Three key definitions used in the discussions include: • Gaming Zone - includes the two counties where Kansas Senate Bill 66 has authorized casinos for each zone. • Trade Area – encompasses the area within an approximate 100-mile radius of the generic casino sites. The trade areas for the casino sites can extend into the neighboring states of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, and to a limited extend to Nebraska and Texas. • Competitive Market - includes the approximate 150-mile region surrounding a casino site where competitor casinos vie for players living within a 150-mile radius. Key elements WGR’s research and analyses included, but were not limited to, the following: • Detailed population data was obtained from the Bureau of Business & Economic Research, University of Nevada, Reno at the census tract level for 2000 through 2012. • The casino gaming capacities and amenities for existing casinos, expansions, and proposed/planned casinos located within a 150-mile radius of the four casino development sites were incorporated into the respective gravity models for each casino site.
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