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Extreme Weather Events Carl Denef, Januari 2014

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Extreme Weather Events Carl Denef, Januari 2014 Data collection and presentation by Extreme weather events Carl Denef, Januari 2014 1 An extreme weather event is the occurrence of a value of a weather variable above (or below) a threshold value near the upper (or lower) ends of the range of observed values of the variable. These events are not a sign of climate change by itself, as they always existed but the occurrence and severity of at least some of these events have increased. Heat and cold waves Drought Tropical Photograph: Stringer Shanghai/Reuters storms Heavy rains Land summer temperature distribution has shifted From 1951 to 1961, only 1% of the land area in the Northern Hemisphere was exposed to temperatures higher than 3 standard deviations (SD) from the mean for 1951–1980. But from 2001-2011, 11% of land area was exposed to temperatures higher than 3 SD away from the average. About 1% of land area, an area twice the size of France, experienced heat extremes of 5 SD from the mean. The same trend is seen in the Southern Hemisphere. 2 Extreme high temperatures become more frequent The annual frequency of warm nights (90th percentile) and warm days (90th percentile) for the period 1950-2010 is increasing, relative to the period 1961 to 1990, in many regions of the World. The same trend is seen in decadal values (right panel). Occurrence of warm nights is more widespread than that of warm days. From IPCC AR5-I Figure 2.32. 3 The Figure shows 3 datasets: HadEX2; HadGHCND and GHCNDEX In contrast, the incidence of cold days and nights (10th percentile of temperatures) have decreased. From IPCC AR5-I Figure 2.32 4 Also in Europe the number of hot days since 1960 have increased, while the number of cold days have decreased. In the Figure higher confidence in the long-term trend is shown by a black dot. From European Environment Agency 5 Warmest day of the year Between 1951 and 2010 there was a robust rise in the temperature value of the warmest day of the year in many areas of the World. The trend was up to >1 °C per decade. This means up to 10 °C in some areas From IPCC AR5-I Box 2.4, Figure 1. 6 Heat waves Heat waves are often associated with quasi-stationary anticyclonic circulation anomalies that produce prolonged hot weather. Heat waves can be amplified by pre-existing dry soil conditions, induced by precipitation deficits or evapotranspiration excesses, such as in the extreme summer heat waves in southeastern Europe. According to IPCC AR5, there is “only medium confidence that the length and frequency of warm spells, including heat waves, has increased since the middle of the 20th century. The confidence is medium due to lack of data in Africa and South America. However, it is likely that heat wave frequency has increased during this period in large parts of Europe, Asia and Australia.” Several high-profile heat waves have occurred in recent years (e.g., in Europe in 2003, Australia in 2009, Russia in 2010 and USA in 2011/2012. With high confidence, Hansen et al. (2012)[47] attributed the 2010 Moscow and 2011 Texas heat waves to human-induced global warming , although Dole et al. (2011)[48] concluded that the 2010 Moscow heatwave was mostly due to natural climate variability. As reviewed in the journal Science, april 2011, 332:220-224, the summer of 2003 was exceptionally hot in western and central Europe, causing around 70,000 heat-related deaths. In summer 2010, many cities in eastern Europe recorded extremely high mean temperature: 38.2°C in daytime in Moscow, 25°C at night in Kiev, and 26.1°C day average in Helsinki. Russia counted 55,000 deaths, an annual crop failure of ~25%, more than 1 million hectares a of burned area, and ~$15 billion of total economic loss (~1% of gross domestic product). During the same period, parts of eastern Asia also experienced 7 extremely warm weather, while Pakistan was hit by devastating monsoon floods. The European 2010 summer temperature anomaly was +1.8°C, i.e. 3.5 standard deviations difference relative to 1970–1999. Further, hottest summers occurrence stands substantially above any other 10-year period since 1500 (see Figure next slide). At least two summers in this decade have been the warmest of the last 510 years in Europe. It should be noted, on the other hand, that there is also evidence that periods prior to the 1950s had more heat waves in some regions (e.g., over the USA during the 1930s decade, while in other regions heatwave trends may have been underestimated due to poor quality and/or consistency of data (e.g., over Western Europe and over the Mediterranean). In South America, Africa, Middle-East and South-East Asia, there is low confidence or insufficient evidence (lack of data) for any change. In other parts of Asia the trends are variable, but there are more regions of increase in heat waves than decrease. 8 European summer temperatures for 1500–2010, constructed from instrumental and proxy data. The Figure shows the statistical frequency distribution of european summer land temperature anomalies for the 1500–2010 period (vertical lines). Anomalies in °C relative to the 1970–1999 period are shown in X-axis, and the individual summers are represented by the vertical lines. The 5 warmest and coldest summers are highlighted. The Gaussian fit is in black. As can be seen the 5 hottest summers all fall in the last decade. Bottom shows the decadal frequency of summers with temperature above the 95th percentile of the 1500–2002 distribution. 9 From Science, april 2011, 332:220-4 Europe was again unusually hot in July-August 2013. The map shows average surface temperature anomalies between July 16 and August 11, 2013, compared to the 1981-2010 average for the same time of year. Austria had its record highest ever (40°C) on August 8. 10 Source Longstanding record high temperatures over the entire World in 2018 During the whole summer of 2018, record high temperatures, associated with floods, droughts, wildfires and premature deaths, were noticed in large areas of the World. Record temperature anomalies of 10 °C above the 1979-2000 average temperature, were seen in Northern and Arctic (>32 °C) Europe, from the Northeast to the desert Southwest of the US, Canada, Middle East, Japan (41.1 °C), South and North Korea (40 °C), and North- (51.3 °C) and South-Africa. The heat waves are all the more impressive as there was no El Nino in 2018. 11 Record high temperature in Australia in March-April 2018 April is mid-autumn in Australia. Record high temperatures persisted through large parts of Australia in end March and the first half of April 2018. The heat was unprecedented for its intensity, its spatial area and its persistence. Mardie reached 45.9 °C on 29 March and 45.4 °C on the 28th , Roebourne 45.9 °C on the 28th, and Port Hedland 45.3 °C on the 28th. Record high was 42.2°C in Nullarbor (South Australia) on April 9 and 41.7 °C on April 24th. Many records above 30 °C and above 35 °C were observed for consecutive days in April, and for the total number of days above those thresholds for the month. Roebourne had 18 consecutive days of 40 °C or above from 13 to 30 March. v Read more 12 Record high and low temperatures in the U.S. As shown in the Figure below, record Highs now outpace record Lows by 2:1, as observed at about 1,800 weather stations in the 48 contiguous United States from January 1950 through September 2009. Meehl et al. 2009 Read more 13 Droughts Long-term droughts (persisting for periods up to a decade or longer) are a recurring feature of Holocene paleoclimate records in North America, East and South Asia, Europe, Africa and India. The transitions into and out of the long-term droughts take many years. These events are natural and since the long-term droughts all ended they are not irreversible. Several recent studies suggest that regional reductions in precipitation are primarily due to climate variability and that man-caused trends are currently weak. To measure drought conditions the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is used on a scale of zero (normal rainfall) to -4 (extreme drought). It is used also for wet spells, in which case positive numbers are used. It is calculated from a simple water-balance model including monthly precipitation and temperature data. The global very dry areas were found doubled since the 1970s, consistent with decreases in regional precipitation and of increasing evaporation due to global warming. The Figure shows the increasing trend in regional cumulative deficit in surface land moisture (relative to local mean conditions) as well as the global PDSI between 1900 and 2002. Figure from IPCC AR4-I 14 Recently, however, scientists at Princeton University showed that the PDSI overestimates drought trends because the model relies too much on surface temperature, that itself is increasing due to climate change[Ref] . They developed a new model that included inputs such as solar radiation, humidity and wind. The Figure shows drought condition trends over the past 60 years (1950–2008), made up with the mentioned method. Red areas indicate increasing levels of drought while blue areas are less prone to dry conditions. Drought changes are small. According to IPCC AR5-I, observed trends in drought or dryness (lack of rainfall) since the middle of the 20th century have low confidence at a global-scale, due to lack of direct observations, geographical inconsistencies in the trends, and dependencies of trends quantitation on the index choice.
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